WHERE HAMBURG'S STREETS ARE PATHED WITH GOLD. AND WHERE NOT (YET) - Investment propertIes In Hamburg
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WHERE HAMBURG’S STREETS ARE PATHED WITH GOLD. AND WHERE NOT (YET). Investment properties in Hamburg Market report 2017 zinshausteam-kenbo.de
INVESTMENT PROPERTIES
INDEX
The market for investment properties in Hamburg 4
Record turnover on Hamburg’s investment property market 4 EDITORIAL
Price index for existing properties 5
Focus on city districts 6
Property construction doubled 7 Dear Ladies and Gentlemen, stically oriented politics, Trump, Putin,
Sales in the city districts in 2016 7 ˘
Erdogan, ´ or Orbán are view-
Kaczynski
New residential districts 8 2016 saw Hamburg’s real estate mar- ed as unreliable partners for internati-
Political restrictions 9
ket experience further very dynamic onal agreements and contracts. For in-
Social preservation areas 10
growth. Turnover on the investment pro- vestors, however, legal certainty is a key
Controversial rent cap 10
perty market reached an all-time high benchmark for the security of their in-
Special write-offs for construction of new rental housing 11
while figures for the office and commer- vestments.
Interior development measure (IEM) in preparation 12
cial property segment narrowly missed
Enforcement of the misappropriation ban 12
breaking the record set in 2015. Prices Germany has benefitted from this situ-
Building energy legislation: EnEV + EEWÄRMEG = GEG 13
One uniform construction code 13 are climbing, as are rents – although ation; in particular Hamburg and also
Business tax on tenant electricity 14 less sharply – while yields are falling. Berlin. In this context, international per-
2017 trends on the investment property market 14 The number of international investors ception is influenced by rankings such
The larger the portfolio, the higher the multiplier 14 investing in properties on the Elbe and as the “Global Liveability Report”. The
Little on offer, plenty of capital 15 Alster is also increasing. This is a re- report, published in August by British
Alternatives: Freehold apartments or periphery 16 sponse to Hamburg’s economic struc- magazine “The Economist”, identifies
COMMERCIAL INVESTMENT ture, which, in comparison to other major the world’s most liveable cities and
Commercial investment in Hamburg 17 German centres, is highly differentiated, puts Hamburg in 10th place – ahead
Capital turnover doubled since 2008 18 thus ensuring highly stable demand for of all other German cities. Statistical
Office real estate booming 18 real estate with low levels of volatility. evidence also confirms these evalua-
Large projects in planning and under construction 20 tions, demonstrating that Hamburg is
Sales in the city districts in 2016 21 This degree of security, high even by Ger- flourishing commercially and growing
Competition between office and hotel projects 22 man standards, makes Hamburg a pri- in terms of inhabitants. There is also
Price index for commercial investment properties 23 me choice on the international market. no shortage of capital with institutional
Preferred locations 24 The significant decline in the number of and private investors searching for lu-
Security and returns 24
locations and countries worldwide which crative, safe investment opportunities.
Structural change in the retail segment 25
are experiencing positive economic de- Seen from this perspective there is vir-
Controversial southern Überseequartier 27
velopment while simultaneously offe- tually no alternative to real estate. As a
District centre on the up 28
References – Investment and commercial properties ring politically reliable framework condi- result, a clear trend for large investors
29
tions over the past three years has been to pay mark-ups for large portfolios has
a key factor in this. With their nationali- become apparent since the end of 2016,
Image credits: Christoph Bellin/fotograf-hamburg.de · Andreas Vallbracht/prachtvoll.de
Arne Hoffmann/arnehoffmann.de · HafenCity Hamburg GmbH/Hosoya Schaefer Architects
Unibail-Rodamco/moka-studio · Quantum/bloomimages · Quantum/Carsten Brügmann
Shutterstock/shutterstock.com · iStock/istock.com
EDITORIAL
The directors and shareholders
of ZINSHAUSTEAM & KENBO GmbH & Co. KG, l to r:
Thomas König, Matthias Baron, Lars Linnenbrügger,
Oliver Sieweck, David Kenney,
Guido Bennemann, Andreas Boberski
because such portfolios offer the opti- ning their attention to outlying areas. in Hamburg eagerly wait large projects Federal Minister of Justice Heiko Maas.
on to invest significant capital en bloc. 2016 saw investors focus not on the cen- in the office segment, the significantly Irrespective of the election outcome, the
Put another way, individual properties tral Altstadt or Neustadt districts, but faster growth of retail space volumes in peak has been reached – at least with re-
increase in value in line with the size of instead on peripheral localities which comparison to turnover is viewed scep- gard to the investment property market.
their portfolio. are further out than, for example, Ham- tically. The southern Überseequartier in Interest rates are climbing, even if this
merbrook and Harburg. In the last three particular is causing anxiety among city growth is slow, and prices and multipli-
Investors’ mounting interest and popu- years districts such as Lohbrügge, centre retailers and property owners. ers are more likely to move laterally as
lation growth in Hamburg has caused Bramfeld or Wandsbek have also be- a result. Investment properties will thus
an increasing shift in attention to so- come more popular. The real estate industry is relatively un- continue to be of interest to classic pri-
called “poor locations”. Eastern are- concerned about the forthcoming fe- vate and institutional investors, howe-
as of the city have benefited in parti- Office and retail properties are cur- deral parliamentary elections. Ange- ver less so for speculators. In addition to
cular from this, with a dedicated urban rently experiencing differing scenari- la Merkel has distanced herself from this, no significant increase in the sup-
development programme, “Stromauf- os, with office space benefitting from the rent capping legislation; regional states ply of properties expected, since there
wärts an Elbe und Bille” (literally ‘Mo- expansion and modernisation concepts Schleswig-Holstein and NRW are abo- continue to be no genuine alternatives
ving Upstream Along the Elbe and Bil- of a predominantly flourishing econo- lishing it; and the courts are increasin- in terms of security and yield.
le’), initiated in 2014. my, while retail is suffering as a result gly demanding a more differentiated ex-
of structural change. The consolidati- planation for its introduction, making it With kindest regards
In the case of office and commercial on of High Street retail is intensifying very unlikely that a CDU-dominated fe-
properties, as also for investment pro- investor demand for office properties deral government will implement the
perties, investors are increasingly tur- and, while both investors and tenants tightening of regulations demanded by ZINSHAUSTEAM & KENBO
zinshausteam-kenbo.de 3
INVESTMENT PROPERTIES
THE MARKET FOR INVESTMENT PROPERTIES IN HAMBURG
NUMBER OF INVESTMENT PROPERTIES SOLD locations. The latter experienced stron-
RECORD TURNOVER gest growth, with the average price per
700 ON HAMBURG’S INVESTMENT
584 614 square metre climbing over 17 % to
600 PROPERTY MARKET
€ 1.861, followed by the good locations
495 459 421 404 411 427 438
500 with an increase of 13 % to € 3 378. The
386 367
400 Hamburg’s investment property market is average price for all locations rase by
300 expanding, as was also the case in 2016. 5.6 % to € 2 624 /m² – twice the figure
200 This expansion is, however, less in terms for 2008 (€ 1 319). Investment proper-
of transaction volumes than with regard ties sold with the intention of privatisi-
100
to the corresponding turnover achieved. on were, on average, significantly more
0
According to the figures published by the expensive. The average price rose by
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Hamburg Committee of Valuation Experts, over 10 % to € 3 279 /m². This is a re-
the number of transactions concluded last flection of increasing prices for freehold
year increased by 11 to 438, and was thus apartments, which have been climbing
TURNOVER (in million euros) somewhat below the ten-year average of significantly more quickly than rents for
457 transactions. Turnover, in contrast, some years now. Figures published by
1.543
1600 rose significantly, by 27 %, achieving an the empirica institute show that prices
1400 all-time record figure of € 1.54 billion. The for new rentals in Hamburg have soared
1.214
1200
1114 1133 1188 ten-year average for this figure is € 943 by 43 % since 2008, from € 8.02 /m² to
886 901 873 800 million. Dynamic turnover growth can be currently € 11.47 /m². During this period
1000
637 687 attributed to higher prices for investment the Hamburg Committee of Valuation
800
properties. In addition to this, more pro- Experts recorded an 89 % rise in prices
600
perties were sold in packages. Turnover for freehold apartments from € 2 212 /m²
400 per property increased from € 2.84 million to € 4 185 /m². Parallel to this, the price
200 in 2015 to € 3.52 million last year. This re- index for investment properties has in-
0 presents an increase of 24 %, also a figure creased by a huge 99 %. Purchasers are
which has never before been achieved. clearly speculating not only on possible
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
rent rises but also and above all on ap-
Purchasers’ interest was focused in par- preciation potential within the scope of
Source: Property Market Report 2017, Gutachterausschuss ticular on “good” and so-called “poor” the property boom.
4
INVESTMENT PROPERTIES
PRICE INDEX FOR EXISTING PROPERTIES
CATEGORY DISTRICTS DISTRICTS WITH POTENTIAL MULTIPLIER PRICE per m2/€ TREND
Blankenese, Flottbek, HafenCity, Harvestehude,
PRIME 28 - 33 times
LOCATION
Hohenfelde (West), Nienstedten, Othmarschen,
Rotherbaum, Uhlenhorst (West), Winterhude (Süd)
–
annual rent
4 500 - 5 200 Ò
Barmbek-Süd, Eimsbüttel (Nord), Eppendorf,
GOOD 26 - 30 times
LOCATION
Hoheluft (Ost), Marienthal, Ottensen, St. Georg,
Uhlenhorst, Wellingsbüttel, Winterhude
–
annual rent
3 500 - 4 500 Ò
TRENDY Altona, Bahrenfeld, Barmbek-Nord, Hamm, 24 - 28 times
LOCATION Hammerbrook, Karolinenviertel, St. Pauli
Schanzenviertel
annual rent
2 600 - 3 600 Ò
Bergedorf, Fuhlsbüttel, Harburg,
SECONDARY Bramfeld, Eilbek, Lokstedt, Lurup, 22 - 25 times
LOCATION
Heimfeld, Horn, Iserbrook, Jenfeld, Langenhorn,
Poppenbüttel, Rahlstedt, Sasel
Schnelsen, Wandsbek annual rent
2 400 - 3 000 Ò
TERTIARY Billbrook, Billstedt, 17 - 19 times
LOCATION
Rothenburgsort, Veddel, Wilhelmsburg
Neugraben-Fischbek, Tonndorf annual rent
1 800 - 2 300 Ö
POOR 15 - 18 times
LOCATION
Moorfleet, Neuenfelde Süderelbe
annual rent
1 500 - 1 900 Ö
5
80 bis 99
100 bis 109
INVESTMENT PROPERTIES 110 bis 130
140 u. mehr
SALES OF APARTMENT BUILDINGS IN THE CITY DISTRICTS FROM 2008 TO 2016
FOCUS ON
Stadtteile
imCITY DISTRICTS
Fokus WInterHuDe
eImsbÜtteL
80 to 99
179
barmbeK-sÜD
Statistics for Hamburg’s city districts aLtona-aLtstaDt 100 to 109
barmbeK-norD
provide confirmation that the current ottensen 110 to 130
market situation has resulted in all lo- 140 and above
108
90
121
cations becoming ever more attractive
114
149
to investors. As was already the case in
119
raHLsteDt
87
90
2013 and 2015, the Eimsbüttel district Source:
Property Market Report 2017,
203
once again topped the rankings, with Gutachterausschuss
25 properties sold. In second place rotHerbaum
st. pauLI
104
was Rahlstedt with 20 transactions –
115
the highest figure in the last ten years.
bergeDorF
Bronze was taken by Harburg with 19
properties sold, ahead of Rotherbaum HeImFeLD Harburg
with 16.
Harburg achieved first place for the pe-
riod since 2008, performing significantly In point of fact, almost every sixth trans- area to focus more strongly on districts to the outer districts is also due to incre-
better than second-placed Eimsbüttel. action last year related to a property in in eastern Hamburg. Figures for areas ased building activities in these areas.
In third place was Ottensen, ahead of the Süderelbe area. This figure is, how- such as Bramfeld, Wandsbek, Billstedt Project developers are searching for af-
fourth-ranked Winterhude. This ranking ever, lower than in 2015, when almost or Bergedorf have thus improved. fordable plots with links to public trans-
demonstrates that interest is evenly dis- every fourth transaction was concluded port (S- or U-Bahn trains). In city centre
tributed across established investment south of the river. When considering the Districts on the northern fringes have locations attractive plots are now being
property areas such as Winterhude and number of transactions according to also experienced stronger growth – for sold for up to € 3 000 /m² prior encum-
Eimsbüttel; trendy districts such as district in 2016 it is noticeable that the example Schnelsen, Niendorf or Fuhls- brance on the planned residential floor
Ottensen and areas south of the Elbe, interest of purchasers wishing to invest büttel. In contrast, fewer sales were space – insofar as any plots at all are
such as Harburg, which are habitually in comparatively cheaper investment pro- recorded in districts closer to the city available. The development of affordable
categorized as poor locations. perties has shifted from the Süderelbe centre and the Alster. The shift in focus housing – for example within the scope of
6
INVESTMENT PROPERTIES
Wohldorf-
Ohlstedt
Duvenstedt
Hamburg’s ‘three-thirds model’ compri- SALES IN THE CITY DISTRICTS IN 2016 Lemsahl-
Mellingstedt
sing one-third each freehold apartments,
Bergstedt
subsidized and privately financed rental Poppen-
apartments – is thus a challenge. Langenhorn
büttel
Sasel
Hummels- Volksdorf
büttel
Wellings-
Wohnungsbau Schnelsen
büttel
PROPERTY CONSTRUCTION
verdoppelt Niendorf
Fuhlsbüttel
Ohlsdorf
DOUBLED
Groß Steils- Rahlstedt
Alster-
Eidelstedt Borstel dorf hoop
Farmsen-
Bramfeld Berne None
Hamburg’s housing market in 2017 has Lurup
Lokstedt
Eppendorf 1
Barmbek-
Tonndorf
been characterized by continuing strong Rissen
Stellingen
Hohe-
Winterhude Nord
Duls- Wands-
2
Sülldorf Iser- luft berg bek
demand and a larger number of new buil- brook
Osdorf
Eims-
büttel
Harveste-
hude
Barmbek-
Süd Jenfeld 3 to 4
Bahrenfeld
Uhlenhorst
ding projects. The “Housing Alliance”, for- Groß
Sternschanze
Rotherbaum
Hohen-
Eilbek Marienthal
5 to 6
Blankenese Altona
Flottbek St. felde
med by the housing sector, the Hamburg -Nord
Neu- Georg Borg-
7 to 9
Nienstedten Otten- St. stadt Alt- felde Hamm Horn
Senate and the city districts in 2011 and Othmarschen sen Altona Pauli
-Altstadt
stadt Hammer-
brook Billstedt
10 to 19
renewed in 2016, has resulted in a 100 % Cranz
Finkenwerder HafenCity
Rothen-
20 and more
Waltershof Steinwerder burgsort
Billbrook
increase in both planning permission and Kleiner
Grasbrook
Veddel
completion statistics for the Elbe, Alster
Neuenfelde Altenwerder
and Bille areas in the period to 2016. Figu- Francop
Moorfleet
Lohbrügge
Billwerder
res published by Statistik Nord show that Wilhelmsburg
Taten-
Moorburg berg Neuallermöhe
planning permission was granted for 10 Spaden- Bergedorf
Neugraben- land Allermöhe
736 residential units last year, while 7 722 Fischbek
Hausbruch
Reitbrook
were completed. In addition to this, official Heimfeld Neuland
Harburg Ochsenwerder
statistics for the first five months of 2017 Curslack
Eißendorf Neuengamme
indicate that planning permission was Wilstorf Gut Moor Altengamme
granted for 6 077 units – twice as many Marmstorf
Rönneburg
Kirchwerder
as in the comparable period for 2016. Sinstorf Langenbek
The Housing Alliance’s objective is to
have 10 000 residential units ready for Source: Property Market Report 2017, Gutachterausschuss
zinshausteam-kenbo.de 7
Keine
INVESTMENT PROPERTIES
The residential district on the construction each year. Average annu- Elbphilharmonie concert hall and in the
Baakenhafen dock stretches
from the HafenCity University al population growth in Hamburg has, southern Überseequartier district.
to the Elbbrücken. Planned however, exceeded 15 000 residents each
completion: 2025
year since 2010, meaning that, viewed in The second-largest urban development
statistical terms, any new apartments are project currently under construction is
immediately absorbed into the market. the Neue Mitte Altona project with the
adjacent Holsten Quartier site. The Mit-
te Altona’s first phase, comprising 1 600
NEW
Neue apartments on the former site of the rail-
RESIDENTIAL DISTRICTS
Quartiere way freight depot, is nearing completion.
From around 2024 onwards the second
In response to this the city has initiated phase will see a further 1 600 apartments
major construction projects and pressed built directly to the west, on the site of
ahead with existing ones. The HafenCity what is currently Altona Long-Distance
continues to be Hamburg’s largest urban Train Station. The area around the Mitte
development project. Building rights have Altona project is set to further expand in
been awarded for the first plots in the Elb- 2019, when work begins on the former
brücken area, the last undeveloped site in site of the Holsten brewery, where 2 500
the new district located between the city apartments are planned.
centre and the Elbe. Construction of some
1 000 apartments with views across the Within the scope of similar-sized projects,
Baakenhafen dock will begin in the Elb- apartments are planned along the canopy
brücken area in 2020, with commercial- now being constructed over the A7 motor-
use high-rise buildings providing protec- way in Altona, Stellingen and Schnelsen
tion against noise from the port. The first – for example at the horse-racing track
apartments are approaching completion, in Bahrenfeld. 2 300 of the 5 600 resi-
with a total of 2 200 apartments planned dential units originally planned will be
around the dock. 2018 will see work com- built under the auspices of the “Refugee
mence on just under 500 residential units Accommodation with a Residential Per-
each in the Strandkai area opposite the spective” project. The apartments, initially
8
INVESTMENT PROPERTIES
PRICE DEVELOPMENT OF HAMBURG INVESTMENT PROPERTY LOCATIONS apartments; this will, however, primari- 5 000 residential units are planned in
ly be achieved through construction on Neugraben.
€ /m2 vacant urban plots in line with the phi-
Prime Location losophy “More City in the City”. A further 4 000 apartments will be built
5 000
Good Location along the axis of the major Wilhelmsbur-
4 500
Secondary Location In response to strong population growth – ger Reichsstrasse thoroughfare, which
4 000 not only in the form of refugees – in 2015 will, in turn, be relocated to the east along
Tertiary Location
3 500 the city’s red-green Senate expanded its the route of the railway tracks. Three de-
Poor Location
3 000 urban development strategy to include velopment areas, Wilhelmsburger Rath-
the “More City in the City” concept. This ausviertel, Elbinselquartier and Spree-
2 500
concept includes what will, in future, be hafenviertel, are planned between the
2 000
the city’s largest urban development pro- Neue Mitte (new centre) Wilhelmsburg,
1 500 ject in Oberbillwerder. Planning for a new bordered by the Department of Urban De-
1 000 district with up to 8 000 residential units velopment and Housing’s new building
500 has already begun. Its envisaged location in the south and the Spreehafen docks
is marshland to the north of Allermöhe in the north. From here it is just a short
0
train station and entries for a correspon- distance to the HafenCity.
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
ding urban planning competition have
been requested.
Source: Property Market Report 2017, Gutachterausschuss POLITISCHE
POLITIcal
The “More City in New Locations” con- Restriktionen
RESTRICTIONS
granted planning permission as refugee struction at Mittlerer Landweg in Billwer- cept also includes the Vogelkamp and
accommodation but complying with so- der. This is a direct consequence of the Fischbeker Reethen new developments, Taking into consideration the efforts
cial housing regulations, will quickly be “Stromaufwärts an Elbe und Bille” urban under construction in Neugraben – on being made to develop the quantity of
made available to other user groups such development concept for eastern Ham- the furthest outskirts of south-east housing available in line with population
as students and apprentices. The objec- burg, put into place in 2014. The “Alliance Hamburg but with a rail connection to growth, political initiatives to regulate the
tive is to provide affordable housing while for Districts”, founded by the Hamburg the centre. In direct proximity to this is housing sector are, in some cases, irri-
also promoting social integration of re- Senate, districts and the housing sector the Fischbeker Heidbrook new-build de- tating. These initiatives, which originate
fugees. The programme’s largest project in 2015 to realise this concept, believes velopment, located on the former site both from federal and Hamburg govern-
comprises 750 apartments under con- that potential exists to build over 20 000 of the Röttiger barracks. In all under ment, are designed to be complementary.
zinshausteam-kenbo.de 9
INVESTMENT PROPERTIES
SOCIAL PRESERVATION Soziale CONSTRUCTION PLOTS FOR APARTMENT BUILDINGS -
SOCIAL
Erhaltungsgebiete
STATUTES IN HAMBURG TURNOVER AND TRANSACTIONS
PRESERVATION AREAS
600
250
ALREADY VALID
Bahrenfeld-Süd (2016) Social preservation statutes are a clas- 500
NUMBER OF CONTRACTS
232
TURNOVER M EUROS
Ottensen (2016) sic form of housing sector regulation. At
206
150
400
194
Altona-Altstadt (2014) present they apply to an area of 606 ha
172
165
165
Eimsbüttel-Süd (2014) located in districts close to the city centre 300 100
Sternschanze (2013)
and affect 125 000 residents in 66 000
134
121
Ottensen Osterkirchen-
115
households. 2016 saw statutes also come 200
105
viertel (2013)
into force for Ottensen (22 March) and
93
50
St. Pauli (2012)
Bahrenfeld-South (8 November). In addi- 100
St. Georg (2012)
Neustadt-Süd (1995) tion to this, resolutions have been passed
0 0
to implement statutes for Eimsbüttel/
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
PLANNED Hoheluft-West/Stellingen-South (26 July
Nördliche Neustadt/ 2016) and northern Neustadt/Venusberg
Venusberg (Ende 2017)
(16 June 2015).
Eimsbüttel-Nord (Anfang 2018) Source: Property Market Report 2017, Gutachterausschuss
Hoheluft-West (Anfang 2018)
Stellingen-Süd (Anfang 2018)
CONTROVERSIAL
STREITFALL The dispute surrounding this expert opi- assertion that there is a housing shortage
PRELIMINARY REVIEWS/
RENT CAP
Mietpreisbremse nion, on whose criteria the alliance part- in Hamburg does not provide sufficient
PRELIMINARY CONSIDERATIONS ners could not agree, almost prevented grounds for such a far-reaching measure.
Bahrenfeld-West On 1 July 2015 rent cap legislation co- the renewal of the Housing Alliance.
Barmbek-Nord vering the whole of the city of Hamburg In June Munich District Court followed
Hamm-West
was introduced. The housing associations In the meantime, on 23 May 2017 Altona this judgement, referring to federal legis-
Hohenfelde
organised in the Housing Alliance and District Court ruled that the ‘Ordinance lation and stating that “The statement of
Horn
Ottensen-Nord-West
the Senate had agreed that, subsequent concerning the Introduction of Rent Cap- reasons must provide the facts forming
Uhlenhorst to this, they would commission an ex- ping in Hamburg’ was ineffective, decla- the basis for the judgement that there is
Winterhude pert opinion to assess the validity of the ring that there is no viable justification for a housing shortage in a specific area.”
legislation’s introduction in all districts. it. The court argued that the unspecific On 22 June St. Georg District Court, how-
10INVESTMENT PROPERTIES
ever, ruled that Hamburg’s rent cap is limited to the period to 2020. The new
effective because, among other reasons, state governments in Schleswig-Holstein
calculation of the typical rent for privately and North Rhine-Westphalia have already
financed housing in an area was carried passed resolutions to abolish rent cap-
out representatively using a qualified rent ping legislation.
index. Irrespective of the ruling on the
issue, two years after the legislation’s in-
troduction it is apparent that the rent cap SPECIAL WRITE-OFFS
Sonderabschreibung
has had hardly any effect on the develop- FOR
für CONSTRUCTION OF
den
ment of rents and no effect whatsoever NEW RENTAL HOUSING
Mietwohnungsneubau
on the development of sales prices.
Federal Minister for Construction Bar-
Should Federal Minister of Justice, Heiko bara Hendricks (SPD) is attempting to
Maas (SPD) get his way, this will change score points by offering special tax write-
after the federal parliamentary elections. offs for the construction of new rental
Essentially, he wishes to tighten up two apartments in markets suffering from
aspects of the controversial legislati- shortages. The Grand Coalition rejected
on. Firstly, landlords should, in future, this plan in July 2016 after failing to agree
be obliged to inform new tenants what on the upper limit for construction cost
rent their predecessors paid. Second- subsidies. Hendricks has also indicated
ly, Maas would like to limit the passing that she could imagine special write-offs
on of modernisation costs by owners to for energy-saving modernisation measu-
their tenants to 8 % instead of the 11 % res for existing rental apartments.
currently allowed, pointing to current low
interest rates. The CDU has, to date, not Alternatively, professional real estate as-
supported this tightening up of legislation sociations have called for linear deprecia-
within the Grand Coalition. Up until now, tion for capital assets to be raised from 2 %
many investors with long-term strate- to 3 %, arguing that property life cycles
gies have also based their activities on are becoming shorter as a result of rapidly
the assumption that legislation will be increasing technical standards. There has
zinshausteam-kenbo.de 11INVESTMENT PROPERTIES
also been a call to award investment sub- land as well as to create an instrument
sidies to companies which do not view tax which prevents speculation. In Berlin,
write-offs as an incentive to invest. for example, the gap between granting
of planning permission and completion
of housing is growing ever wider. Spe-
INTERIOR DEVELOPMENT culators are purchasing plots with the
MEASURE (IEM) expectation that granting of planning
IN PREPARATION permission will further encourage the
dynamic rise in values which has charac-
The Interior Development Measure (IEM) terised the market in Germany’s capital
has yet to become law. It is based on a city for the last five years. Speculation
proposal made at federal level by the is not yet a significant issue in Hamburg
“Active Property Policy” working group – also because the city’s investor struc-
of the “Alliance for Affordable Housing ture is very different to that of Berlin.
and Construction”. Owners who, for pri- Hamburg’s Mayor, Olaf Scholz, has ne-
vate or speculative reasons, are unwilling vertheless admonished investors several
either to carry out construction work or times to quickly realise construction pro-
to sell should have a duty to carry out jects which have been granted planning
such work imposed on them by means of permission rather than to speculate on
creating a statutorily defined interior de- exploiting value increases.
velopment area. This duty could also be
based on new development plans. Should
the owner fail to comply with this duty, ENFORCEMENTDES
DURCHSETZUNG OF THE
then the local council could exercise a MISAPPROPRIATION BAN
ZweckentfremdungsverbotS
pre-emptive right to purchase the pro-
perty and – if necessary – expropriate it. In 2017 the district set a precedence case
A number of local councils have com- concerning the enforcement of the mis-
missioned a legal opinion regarding the appropriation ban in line with Articles 9,
IEM and model projects. The objective 12 a and 12 b of the Hamburg Housing
behind the IEM is to activate building Protection Act (HmbWoSchG). It appoin-
12INVESTMENT PROPERTIES
ted a trustee to manage an apartment fine tune implementation of the stated
building with six units in Hamm which requirements to allow the use of any type
had been vacant since 2012 and, despite of technology. This would give developers
the imposition of various fines, had not and investors the power to decide for
been refurbished and let. Acting in place themselves which technology they wish
of the owner, who had temporarily been to use to achieve the goals specified. It
deprived of ownership, the trustee had is, furthermore, believed that subsidies
the apartments made fit for habitation should be granted for climate and ener-
and let them. The district permits this if, gy policy-related goals which cannot be
in violation of the HmbWoSchG’s misap- realised within the scope of the usual
propriation ban, housing cannot be used renovation cycles.
for this purpose over a longer period of
time. Upon regaining possession of ow-
nership the owner must enter into the ONE UNIFORM
legal actions and transactions carried CONSTRUCTION CODE
EINHEITLICHE
out by the trustee. It is not clear whether
this precedence case can be deemed to One of the more satisfactory initiatives
relate to speculative vacancy or not. of the federal government has been the
implementation of a national model con-
struction code. Its objective is to stan-
Gebäudeenergiegesetz:
BUILDING ENERGY LEGISLATION: dardise the varying state construction
EnEV
EnEV + EEWÄRMEG==GEG
+ EEGWÄRMEG GEG codes. Many of the states have, however,
shown resistance to the idea of giving up
In January 2017 the German Energy Sa- their own regional laws and standards in
ving Regulations (EnEV) and Renewable favour on one uniform code. Professional
Thermal Energy Act (EEWärmeG) were real estate associations would like to see
merged to form the Building Energy Act the model construction code also include
(GEG), however without any new concept standard framework parameters for seri-
or simplification. A key task of the forth- al construction and planning permission
coming federal government should be to for building types
zinshausteam-kenbo.de 13INVESTMENT PROPERTIES
payable if income generated by rentals multiplier to sell at the 35-fold multiplier
and leases is “infected” with commercial after a short period of time.
income realised from the generation and
supply of renewable energies to buildings. The sale of investment properties with a
comparatively high percentage of com-
Thomas Lars mercial space will become increasingly
König 2017 TRENDS Linnenbrügger
DIE TRENDS AUFON THE
DEM difficult. A number of trends have resulted
Zinshausmarkt IN 2017 MARKET
INVESTMENT PROPERTY in the search for tenants for retails units
on arterial roads or in secondary loca-
Demand for investment properties in tions in particular becoming ever more
Hamburg remains unbroken this year. challenging. This can be attributed to
Purchase price multipliers, which rose competition from the Internet, which is
again in 2016, have been slowing since causing problems not only for retailers
mid-2017. Last year saw virtually no in- but also, for example, kiosks selling lot-
vestment properties in prime locations tery tickets. In addition to this, retail is be-
sold for less than the equivalent of 30 coming progressively more concentrated
times the annual net rent. While 2016 saw in city centres and local shopping centres.
the discussion surrounding the charging Not all shops which become vacant can
of penalty interest by banks further fuel be used as children’s day-care centres
.AUS ERNEUERBAREN
BUSINESS TAX ON interest in real estate, there has been a This is, however, unlikely to cause any – particularly in view of noise emission
ENERGIEN
TENANT ELECTRICITY slight tendency for interest rates to rise slump in prices or demand. A more feasi- regulations for residential areas.
since autumn 2016. Although the Euro- ble prospect is that there will be lateral
The possibility of becoming a member pean Central Bank (ECB) has yet to follow movement across the high level already
of a tenants’ electricity company plays a the US Federal Reserve’s (FED) policy of achieved since, viewed in the long term, THE LARGER THE PORTFOLIO,
positive role in making apartments at- implementing small increases in interest interest rates continue to be as low as JeTHE HIGHER
gröSSer THE
das MULTIPLIER
Portfolio,
tractive. These companies use renewa- rates, it is expected to decide to do so never before and there is no real alterna-
ble energy sources to generate cheap, before the end of the year in response to tive to property investment, in particular In recent months investment pressure
environment-friendly electricity. A draw- economic recovery in Europe’s crisis sta- for institutional investors. Current trends has caused institutional investors to ex-
back of the current legislative proposal tes. Should this occur, it is probable that will, however, be a turning point for spe- hibit investment behaviour which turns
is the risk that business tax may become the price peak will have been reached. culative investors who buy at a 30-fold existing market laws on their heads.
14INVESTMENT PROPERTIES
properties had been offered in smaller
packages and, in some cases, with a
higher percentage of equity capital. This
phenomenon has become progressively
more common since the end of 2016, with
Matthias significantly over-inflated prices paid in Oliver Guido
Baron Sieweck Bennemann
some cases. Possible losses in value do
not, however, impact the market because
these investors have an extremely long-
term focus, allowing them to easily ab-
sorb price fluctuations and not be forced
to sell on the properties.
LITTLE
Wenig ON OFFER,
Angebot,
PLENTY
viel OF CAPITAL
Kapital
This gilding of portfolios is problematic
for relatively small investors looking to
Large-volume portfolios – not only in the invest in the € 0.8 million to € 1.5 million rising income thanks to sharp climbs ten years ago, now have virtually no
residential investment property sector but segment – a classic Hamburg investor in rents mean that private owners have properties left in the city.
also in the commercial property sector – clientele. Price increases in themselves little incentive to sell. This is first and
are being assembled for investors, who plus the assembly of large packages foremost due to the fact that the capital Investors who do have the opportuni-
only begin to bid when prices reach the mean that these investors have limited market has few attractive investment ty to purchase have no need to worry
two-digit million figure. To obtain the pos- choices. This trend is becoming more alternatives, which will also remain the about financing. After the mortgage
sibility to invest a larger volume of capital pronounced since the number of pro- case for the foreseeable future. bank sector thinned out noticeab-
in one chunk, these investors are willing perties on the market is not expected to ly following the 2008 financial crisis,
to participate in highest bidder procedu- grow, even if interest rates gradually in- Following the most recent sales, Scan- Hamburg now has significantly more
res, paying higher multipliers for pro- crease. The increases in value currently dinavian investors, who purchased nu- institutions looking for borrowers than
perties than they would have if the same being experienced in combination with merous properties in Hamburg some it did ten years ago. In addition to na-
zinshausteam-kenbo.de 15INVESTMENT PROPERTIES
NUMBER OF FREEHOLD APARTMENTS SOLD IN 2016 tional and international financial insti- formance. In many city centre districts
HAMBURG‘S TOP 12 tutes, who primarily supply commercial subdivision has, however, been impe-
investors with external capital, regional ded by the widening of social preserva-
banks and savings banks are increasin- tion statutes. Subdivision is forbidden,
gly also venturing outside of the city’s as is any modernisation which results
1 WINTERHUDE 351
boundaries. in a significant increase in the value of
apartments. Interest in investment out-
2 ALTONA-NORD 312
side of Hamburg’s boundaries is also
growing. Demand is high, for example,
3 EIMSBÜTTEL 303 ALTERNATIVES:
for investment properties in areas which
FREEHOLD APARTMENTS
have commuter rail connections (S- and
4 BARMBEK-SÜD 291 OR PERIPHERY
Alternativen: U-Bahn) to Hamburg. These include
Ahrensburg and Grosshansdorf, Neu
5 RAHLSTEDT 224
In response to this, small investors are Wulmstorf and Buxtehude, Pinneberg,
investing more frequently in tenanted Wedel or Norderstedt. Positive demo-
6 BERGEDORF 223
freehold apartments. According to fi- graphic perspectives are also attracting
gures published by the Hamburg Com- investor interest to Lüneburg, Lübeck,
7 LANGENHORN 211
mittee of Valuation Experts, 6 000 to Kiel or Flensburg, where prices have, in
7 000 purchase contracts for freehold some cases, risen significantly although
8 EPPENDORF 201
apartments have been concluded each remaining clearly below the levels
year since 2008. Turnover in this period achieved in Hamburg. It is thus possible
9 BARMBEK-NORD 200 has, however, more than doubled from to purchase a prime-location investment
€ 1.17 billion to € 2.42 billion. This also property in Lüneburg for the same pri-
10 NIENDORF 190 applies to the price per square metre, ce as an average investment property in
which averaged € 4 185 in 2016. Hamburg’s Hamm district.
11 WANDSBEK 153
Subdivision into freehold apartments Experience, however, shows that
12 HAMMERBROOK 149 can be an attractive selling option for Hamburg’s classic private investment
owners of investment properties who property investor primarily puts his mo-
Source: Property Market Report 2017, Gutachterausschuss are dissatisfied with the property’s per- ney into “his” district.
16COMMERCIAL investment
COMMERCIAL Investment IN Hamburg Hamburg office and commercial pro-
perties have a reputation among natio-
nal and international investors as solid
capital investments. The city’s diversi-
fied economic structure ensures, for
example, that demand for office space
comes very a wide range of sectors.
Mixed demand for office space in the
first half of 2017 was thus not untypi-
cal for the market. In terms of space
take-up, demand was highest from in-
dustry, which provides an above-ave-
rage contribution to Hamburg’s value
creation chain compared to other ma-
jor German cities. Consulting compa-
nies, traditionally an important sector
in this port and trading city, made up
the second-largest segment, followed
by public authorities. In fourth place
was the real estate industry, ahead of
educational institutions, which seldom
account for so much take-up. In this
case turnover was generated by the
University of Hamburg’s modernisati-
on and new construction programme.
These five segments accounted for al-
most two-thirds of office take-up in the
first six months of this year.
zinshausteam-kenbo.de 17COMMERCIAL investment
.
NUMBER OF OFFICE AND COMMERCIAL PROPERTIES SOLD
CAPITAL TURNOVER OFFICE REAL ESTATE
Büroimmobilien
DOUBLED SINCE 2008
verdoppelt BOOMING
boomen 400
334 341
350
300 272 294 284
Hamburg’s heterogeneous economic Office properties are currently experi- 300
241 235 247 225
structure ensures that the real estate encing a boom in terms of leasing con- 250
market is less volatile while still gro- tracts and sales. The ten-year average 160
200
wing steadily. Figures issued by the for office space take-up, 500 000 m², has 150
Hamburg Committee of Valuation Ex- been significantly exceeded every year 100
perts show that, following the depres- since 2014. Following record take-up of 50
sion after the 2008 financial crisis, 300 000 m² in the first half of 2017 it can 0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
turnover generated by office and com- be expected that current year will also
mercial properties has more than dou- achieve annual take-up significantly in
bled, from € 1.28 billion to € 2.83 billion excess of 500 000 m².
last year.
In addition to the above-mentioned lea- TURNOVER (in million euros)
Turnover in 2016 thus exceeded the ten- ding sectors in terms of demand, it is
year average by just under 30 %, how- also noticeable that co-working com- 3500
ever was 6 % lower than the record panies account ever more frequently 3013 2834
3000 2941
figure of € 3.01 billion in 2015. There for large transactions. WeWork has, for 2612 2612
2500
were a total of 284 transactions last – example, concluded a long-term rental 1817 1869
2014 1937 1813
2000
only 7.2 % above the ten-year average contract for 7 700 m² in the Hanse Fo-
1500 1281
– demonstrating the significant rise in rum building on Axel-Springer-Platz –
prices also experienced in Hamburg. It opposite the new Springer develop- 1000
should be noted in this context that the ment and the future location of the Mit- 500
markets for office properties, business te district’s offices. Among the Top 10 0
premises and retail units are not deve- transactions is also the renting of 3 400
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
loping synchronously. m² of office space by Spaces, the Regus
co-working subsidiary, at the Work Life
Center on Gorch-Fock-Wall. Regus also Source: Property Market Report 2017, Gutachterausschuss
18COMMERCIAL investment
TAKE-UP (in 1 000 m2)
1200
1050 1.081
911
1000
906 867 855
786
800
649 643 624
600
380
400
200
0
2015
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Source: Property Market Report 2017, Gutachterausschuss
signed a contract to lease space for a addition to this, the number of office
business centre in the Ü8 building in workplaces has once again risen signi-
City Nord. Landlords appear keen to do ficantly. According to figures published
business with co-working companies by bulwiengesa, in the period from 2006
since it allows them to make more flexi- to 2016 office space in Hamburg expan-
ble use of their properties’ office space, ded by just over 10 % to 13.7 million m² –
thus also making them more attractive the highest figure for any major Ger-
to existing tenants. man city. Despite this, in the same pe-
riod the vacancy rate fell from 8.5 % to
The investment market is reacting 5.3 % – and this year was less than 5 %.
in a similar manner. Interest in office
spaces which allow the realisation of Rental take-up is thus limited solely by
current and future workplace concepts the lack of properties. From 2011 to 2015
has resulted in increased demand. In less than 150 000 m² of new office space
zinshausteam-kenbo.de 19COMMERCIAL investment
rest of a predominantly flourishing eco- ting the new headquarters of publishing
nomy in office space with modern faci- group Gruner+Jahr. The group will rent
lities. some 40 000 m² of the 66 000 m² total
floor area. Should the market demand
While vacancy rates are falling, high- it, the early 2020’s will see a further ap-
est and average rents are climbing. prox. 240 000 m² of office space created
David Andreas
Kenney
After ranging from € 19 to € 25/m² in Boberski
in high-rise buildings at the eastern end
the early 1990’s, the highest rents bro- of the Baakenhafen dock near the Elb-
ke this ceiling in 2016. Although large brücken. The first plots for three office
spaces on Alte Wall, for example, were buildings with a total area exceeding 60
already being let for € 29/m² in 2015, the 000 m² have already been assigned to
weighted top rent is now also in excess developers. In addition to this, a 150-m
of € 26/m². Average rents are a more high skyscraper with up to 150 000 m²
obvious indicator of the scarcity of of- total floor space is planned between the
fice space, having now reached € 15/m² Elbbrücken, of which at least 50 % will
– over 20 % more than five years ago. be office space. The invitation to tender
is currently underway.
LARGE PROJECTS Besides the HafenCity, major projects
became available on the market each IN PLANNING
GroSSe AND
Projekte French architect Christian de Portzam- which are ready to begin – or already
year. In 2016 this figure was significant- inUNDER CONSTRUCTION
Planung und Bau parc at the Magdeburger Hafen dock. under way – are primarily located in the
ly in excess of 300 000 m², including the city centre. The Alter Wall project, for
Telekom Campus City Nord (44 000 m²) Planning for a number of major projects On the opposite side of the Magdebur- example, has been under construction
and the headquarters of the Employers’ including large areas of office space is ger Hafen dock, on the corner of Baa- for two years now. Located adjacent
Liability Association (VBG) at Barmbek actually under way in Hamburg. In the kenhafen dock, the Watermark and to the Town Hall (Rathaus), developer
railway station (22 000 m²). In the cur- southern Überseequartier, currently Shipyard office buildings, developed Art-Invest is creating 18 000 m² of of-
rent year, however, as in 2018 and 2019, under construction, for example, deve- by ECE and with a total of 20 000 m² fice space and 12 000 m² for retail and
the foreseeable completion rate will be loper Unibail-Rodamco plans to develop letting space, are nearing completion. gastronomy behind the historic listed
between 200 000 and 240 000 m² per 65 000 m² of office space by 2021 – in- Just a stone’s throw away at Lohsepark façade. Also under construction is the
year – too little to meet the strong inte- cluding an office sculpture designed by Warburg-HIH Invest will be construc- Springer Quartier project at Axel-Sprin-
20COMMERCIAL investment
SALES IN THE CITY DISTRICTS IN 2016
ger-Platz, where Momeni is developing None Wohldorf-
Ohlstedt
some 45 000 m² total floor space, of 1 Duvenstedt
which 30 000 m² is office space, by 2020. 2
Lemsahl-
3 Mellingstedt
Commerz Real has now begun to demo- 4 Bergstedt
lish the former headquarters of the Alli- 5 to 6 Poppen-
büttel
Langenhorn
anz insurance group at Grosse Burstah. 7 to 9 Sasel
Hummels- Volksdorf
Plans envisage approx. 40 000 m² total 10 and more büttel
Wellings-
büttel
Schnelsen
floor space, of which 14 000 m² will be Niendorf
Fuhlsbüttel
Ohlsdorf
for offices, to be completed by 2021. Di-
Groß Steils- Rahlstedt
rectly adjacent to this site, in July Pro- Eidelstedt Borstel
Alster-
dorf hoop
Farmsen-
Bramfeld
com Invest received permission to re- Lokstedt
Berne
Lurup Eppendorf Barmbek-
place the two buildings on the site of the Rissen
Stellingen
Hohe-
Winterhude Nord
Duls- Wands-
Tonndorf
luft berg
former headquarters of the Commerz- Sülldorf Iser-
brook Eims-
Harveste-
hude
Barmbek-
Süd
bek
Osdorf Bahrenfeld büttel Jenfeld
bank with a group of new buildings. This Sternschanze
Rotherbaum
Uhlenhorst
Eilbek Marienthal
Blankenese Groß Altona Hohen-
project also includes some 40 000 m² Flottbek -Nord St. felde
Neu- Georg Borg-
Nienstedten Otten- St. stadt Alt- felde Hamm Horn
total floor space with a high percentage Othmarschen sen Altona Pauli
-Altstadt
stadt Hammer-
brook Billstedt
of offices. Cranz
Finkenwerder HafenCity
Rothen-
Waltershof Steinwerder burgsort
Kleiner Billbrook
Grasbrook
Veddel
A controversial project is the construc-
Neuenfelde Altenwerder
tion of new buildings on the site of the Francop
Moorfleet
Lohbrügge
Billwerder
present office space of Hamburg Mitte, Wilhelmsburg
Taten-
Moorburg berg Neuallermöhe
opposite the Hauptbahnhof main train Spaden- Bergedorf
Neugraben- land Allermöhe
station. Aug. Prien has been awarded Fischbek
Hausbruch
Reitbrook
the contract to construct a group of new Heimfeld
Harburg
Neuland Ochsenwerder
Curslack
buildings with just under 50 000 m² to- Neuengamme
Eißendorf
tal floor space, of which 15 000 m² will Wilstorf Gut Moor Altengamme
Marmstorf
be for offices. The project, located at Rönneburg
Kirchwerder
Sinstorf Langenbek
the entrance to the Kontorhaus district
World Heritage site, could be completed
Source: Property Market Report 2017, Gutachterausschuss
zinshausteam-kenbo.de 21COMMERCIALinvestment
COMMERCIAL investment
by 2021. The investment volumes stated seemingly immovably, € 12/m², rents of
for all the above-mentioned city-centre up to € 16/m² are now being achieved.
projects are in the range of € 250 million Rents for offices in trendy districts west
to € 300 million. of the city centre, such as Altona and
Ottensen, are even higher.
The city centre and HafenCity are not
the only areas in which it is possible to In areas around the Alster rents for
develop large projects. Procom Invest new buildings have now risen to almost
and Quantum Immobilien, for examp- the same levels as in the city centre and
le, built a 14 000 m² Hamburg office on HafenCity, while newly or re-rented
Friedensallee in Ottensen for British properties in the centre are now achie-
communications group WPP– and, in ving average rents of around € 20/m².
the meantime, has sold it. In neighbou- Figures published by bulwiengesa indi-
ring Bahrenfeld Quantum Immobilien is cate that office rents in Hamburg incre-
developing new headquarters for cre- ased by some 4 % in 2016 – the second-
dit insurer Euler Hermes. The building, highest figure for a major German city.
which has a total floor space of 24 000 Only in Berlin did demand in conjunc-
m², is scheduled for completion in 2019, tion with a vacancy rate of under 3 %
while both wings of the Fleet Office buil- last year result in a higher increase in
ding in City Süd have already been com- rents – over 16 %.
pleted. Becken Immobilien completed,
rented and sold the ensemble in Hei-
denkampsweg, which has just under 30 COMPETITION
Büro- BETWEEN OFFICE
und Hotelprojekte
000 m² floor space and is in direct proxi- AND HOTEL PROJECTS
im Wettbewerb
mity to the new Olympus headquarters,
in 2016. The latter project, developed by Despite – or perhaps even because of –
the Zech Group, offers 48 500 m² ren- this situation, with the exception of the
The „Zeise 2“ commercial building in tal space, of which Olympus will initially above-mentioned major projects, too
Hamburg-Ottensen, completed in 2017. lease 34 500 m². While the highest rents few new buildings or refurbishments are
in City Süd were, for a long period and being developed in the medium-sized
22COMMERCIAL investment
PRICE INDEX FOR COMMMERCIAL INVESTMENT PROPERTIES
MICRO-LOCATIONS OFFICE SPACES RETAIL SPACES
LOCATION DISTRICTS MULTIPLIER TREND
UNDER DEVELOPMENT RENT per m2 /€ RENT per m2 /€
Area Stadthausbrücke, 23 - 33 times
CITY Altstadt, Neustadt
Kontorhausviertel, Nikolaiviertel annual rent
14 - 26.5 140 - 300 Ò
23 - 29 times
HAFEN HafenCity and Hafenrand Baakenhafen
annual rent
14 - 24.5 25 - 50 Ò
Altona, Barmbek, An der Alster, Euler-Hermes-
CITY DISTRICT Eimsbüttel, Eppendorf, Gelände, Fuhlsbüttler Str. (Bahnhof 19 - 28 times
MARKETS Ottensen, St. Georg, Barmbek), Gasstraße, annual rent
9 - 18.5 15 - 90 Ò
Winterhude Neue Große Bergstraße
Hammerbrook (City-Süd), Nordkanalstraße, 16,5 - 23,5 times
BACK OFFICE
Winterhude (City-Nord) Sonninstraße annual rent
7 - 16 15 - 25 Ò
23COMMERCIAL investment
segment – up to approx. 5 000 m² - in only increased by 3 % last year. There TRANSACTIONS IN THE CITY DISTRICTS
Hamburg. Falling vacancy rates coup- thus still appears to be a backlog in de-
30
led with increasing rents are taking the mand. Hotels are now almost an obli-
Altstadt
pressure off private owners in particular gatory element in mixed-use projects, 25
to invest in the modernisation or new de- such as the southern Überseequartier; 22
velopment of old existing buildings. Par- the Esso Quartier on the Reeperbahn or 20 19 19
18 18
allel to this, media reporting means that Fuhle 101 in Barmbek. 16
HARBURG 15
15 14 14
owners often have clear ideas about the
12 12 12
value of their properties, demanding pri- 11 11
10 10
ces which deter many developers from PREFERRED
Bevorzugte HAMMERBROOK 8 8 8
7
taking a risk. In addition to rising prices LOCATIONS
LOCATIONn 5 5
4 BRAMFELD
for properties and plots, construction 3 3
2 2
costs have also increased significantly This development into secondary loca- 0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
while, despite the upward trend, rents tions is also reflected in statistics pub-
have developed less dynamically than lished by the valuation expert commit-
these costs. tees regarding transactions in the office Source: Property Market Report 2017, Gutachterausschuss
and commercial properties segment. In-
A further factor is the competition which vestor demand has been focused on the stadt (each 11), tying with Lohbrügge and and returns. Property is, in comparison
many office developers are experiencing city centre, at least viewed across a peri- just ahead of Bramfeld (10). In common to government bonds, still a far more
from hotel developers when participa- od of several years from 2009. The most with these outlying areas Wandsbek and lucrative investment option and cer-
ting in highest bidder procedures for real popular district is the Altstadt, with 134 Rahlstedt have also experienced a signi- tainly a far safer one than stocks and
estate – particularly in districts close to transactions, ahead of Neustadt with ficant rise in investor interest since 2013. shares. The yield gap between a ten-
the city centre, such as Hammerbrook/ 120 sales contracts. In third place is year German government bond and a
City Süd, Borgfelde or Barmbek. Ham- Harburg (89 transactions) followed by Sicherheit well-let, modern office property in a
burg is benefitting from strong growth Bergedorf (65) and Hammerbrook (61). SECURITY
und Rendite prime Hamburg location continues to
in tourism and business travel, with the Last year, in contrast, Hammerbrook – AND RETURNS be in excess of 250 base points.
number of overnight stays increasing by which also includes back-office location
5.5 % to 13.3 million in 2016. Although City Süd – was among the front runners The dynamic development of the real In this context, the price rally since 2014
new hotel projects are announced each (15), followed by Harburg (14). These dis- estate investment market to date has has accelerated. Top yields for Hamburg
month, the number of beds in the city tricts were ahead of Altstadt and Neu- been driven by two objectives – security office properties in the period 2010 to
24COMMERCIAL investment
2014 fell by only 0.5 %, from 5 % to 4,5 %. KEY PERFORMANCE INDICATORS FOR HAMBURG‘S RETAIL SECTOR
In the meantime, yields have fallen
Sales are in K m2 Turnover Hamburg city centre in € bn Highest rents € 80-120/m² Highest rents € 300 - 500/m²
again, to 3.5 % and, in some cases, less.
Little profit remains after the deduction 2,0 350
345
of inflation and ancillary costs. As a res-
334
300
345
341
326
326
1,95
324
320
318
316
313
310
TURNOVER EURO BN
ponse to this, districts outside of the city
300
290
250
275
centre are becoming more attractive. 1,9
258
245
245
235
Maximum yields in these areas are still 200
220
1,85
200
200
200
195
around 4.5 % while the continuing dimi-
185
150
174
165
160
nishing availability of vacant office space
150
1,8
138
100
ensures that security has increased.
1,75 50
In addition to this, in their search for
competitively priced office rents, many 1,7 0
companies are turning their attention to
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
peripheral districts.
Source: Property Market Report 2017, Gutachterausschuss
The growing number of residents and
office-based workplaces is current- sustainability of locations and proper- sector – both in terms of turnover and now achieved higher turnover shares.
ly leading to increased demand and is ties. The growing trend to link work development of yields. Top yields have This lateral movement is a response to
expected to continue to be the case for and living environments is expected to thus fallen from 4.7 % in 2010 to 3.6 % structural change in the retail segment,
the next five to ten years. The establish- boost demand for office space in popu- in 2015, where they have since remai- in turn determined by two trends – the
ment of flexible workplace models by lar mixed-use urban areas. ned. As a result, the office sector has growing significance of online retailing
companies in conjunction with demo- “overtaken” retail properties in terms and of central shopping locations.
graphic trends – which have only been of yield decrease. This was already the
slowed to their current level by immig- STRUCTURAL CHANGE
Strukturwandel case for investment turnover weigh- In the last ten years Hamburg’s city
ration – will, however, result in a signi- imIN THE RETAIL SEGMENT
Einzelhandel ting, which saw the office segment centre has undergone visible upgrading
ficant reduction in the volume of office achieve a share of over 60% in recent as a shopping location. Within the scope
space required by 2030 at the latest. Recent years have seen retail proper- years. While retail properties previ- of over a dozen “Business Improve-
Investors planning long-term invest- ties become a less important factor in ously always took second place, hotels ment Districts” (BID) owners of inner
ments must thus consider the future the office and commercial properties or logistics halls have, in some cases, city retail units between the Möncke-
zinshausteam-kenbo.de 25You can also read
