Wind energy in Europe: Outlook to 2020 - September 2017 - France Energie Eolienne
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Wind energy in Europe:
Outlook to 2020
September 2017
Wind energy in Europe:
Outlook to 2020
September 2017
windeurope.org
This publication, the first in a series of annual reports, analyses how EU markets will develop in the next four years, starting with an in depth analysis of the first half of 2017. The outlook is based on WindEurope’s internal analysis and consultation with its members (surveys with national associations and a dedicated workshop in June 2017). Disclaimer This publication contains information collected on a regular basis throughout the year and then verified with relevant members of the industry ahead of publication. Neither WindEurope, nor its members, nor their related entities are, by means of this publication, rendering professional advice or services. Neither WindEurope nor its members shall be responsible for any loss whatsoever sustained by any person who relies on this publication. TEXT AND ANALYSIS: WindEurope Business Intelligence Aloys Nghiem Daniel Fraile Ariola Mbistrova Tom Remy EDITOR: Iván Pineda DESIGN: JQ&ROS Visual Communications PHOTO COVER: Keith Arkins ACKNOWLEDGMENTS WindEurope acknowledge the contributions from the following companies and industry associations for their input to our online surveys and workshop organised on June 28th, 2017 in Brussels: AEE (ES), DWIA (DK), PSEW (PL), FEE (FR), BWE (DE), NWEA (NL), Elettricità Futura (IT), Eneco, Statoil, Enercon, Vestas, ERG, EDPR, EON, Enel, Vattenfall, EnBW, GE, RES, Norton Rose Fulbright, Axpo. WindEurope also acknowledges the kind cooperation of the following associations and institutions: Austrian Wind Energy Association - IG Windkraft, Belgian Offshore Platform, EDORA asbl, ODE-Vlaanderen vzw, Bulgarian Wind Energy Association, Czech Wind Energy Association - CzWEA (CSVE), Estonian Wind Power Association - EWPA, Finnish Wind Power Association (Suomen Tuulivoimayhdistys Ry), VDMA Power Systems, Hellenic Wind Energy Association - ELETAEN, Hungarian Wind Energy Industry Association, Irish Wind Energy Association - IWEA, Associazione Nazionale Energia del Vento - ANEV, Latvian Wind Energy Association, Lithuanian Wind Power Association - LWPA, Associação Portuguesa de Energias Renovaveis - APREN, Romanian Wind Energy Association - RWEA, Svensk Vindenergi (Swedish Wind Energy Association), Renewable UK.
CONTENTS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ..................................................................................................... 5
1. THE EUROPEAN WIND ENERGY MARKET TODAY ............................................. 9
1.1 Market evolution............................................................................................................ 9
1.2. First half of 2017 ........................................................................................................... 10
2. MID-TERM WIND ENERGY MARKET OUTLOOK.................................................... 18
2.1 Introduction..................................................................................................................... 18
2.2 Policy landscape ........................................................................................................... 18
2.3 Market outlook................................................................................................................ 25
2.3.1 Central Scenario.................................................................................................... 27
2.3.2 Low Scenario ......................................................................................................... 30
2.3.3 High Scenario.......................................................................................................... 31
2.4 Investment outlook.................................................................................................... 32
2.5 Global wind energy market outlook...................................................................... 34
2.6 Renewable energy sources outlook...................................................................... 35
2.7 Wind energy generation............................................................................................ 36
3. TECHNOLOGY TRENDS .................................................................................................... 38
EXECUTIVE
SUMMARY
2020 will mark an important milestone for the European Union as Member States will be tested on their climate change
and energy commitments. Wind energy will make a significant contribution to achieving these commitments in the
power sector, allowing many Member States to reach their targets in a cost-effective way and to continue their energy
system transformation.
Deployment in 2017-2020
With an average of 12.6 GW per year, volumes of new de- surpassing hydro power and becoming the largest source
ployment of wind energy capacity look set to remain fairly of renewable electricity. We expect Denmark to meet
strong through to 2020, according to WindEurope’s Cen- over half of its demand with wind energy and Germany
tral Scenario. We expect 2017 to mark a new record high almost 30%. Ireland, Portugal, Spain and the UK will follow
in annual installations. We expect 50 GW to be installed with respectively 29, 27, 24 and 21%.
in the 4 years of 2017-2020. We expect this would bring
the EU to an accumulative installed capacity of 204 GW. New installations will remain relatively strong until the
We expect this 50 GW additional capacity to represent end of 2020, but policy uncertainty and lack of ambition
over half of all new renewable capacity in the EU over the for the post-2020 climate and energy framework could
4-year period, well above solar PV bioenergy and hydro have a significant negative impact on the sector. Only a
power. handful of Member States have provided visibility and
regulatory certainty. With only 5 countries among the EU-
With over 200 GW of installed capacity, wind energy 28 announcing auctions plans, there is a lack of certainty
could meet 16.5% of Europe’s electricity needs by 2020, on revenue stability for investors.
5 Wind energy in Europe: Outlook to 2020
Executive summary
FIGURE A
Wind energy market outlook to 2020 in the EU
18
16
14
12
10
GW
8
6
4
2
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Onshore Offshore Low High Central
Source: WindEurope
Market concentration will remain high, with Germany, the The offshore market will grow at a higher pace than the
UK, France, Spain and the Netherlands installing most of onshore market. With average new installations of 3.1
the capacity. Germany alone will represent a third of all GW/year, offshore wind will represent about one quarter
the installed capacity, with a total of 16.5 GW. The second of the total new installations (compared to a 15% share in
largest market will be the UK, with two thirds of its new the last 4-year period 2013-2016). The offshore market
installations offshore. France will be third in the list with will concentrate mainly in the UK with 5.2 GW, represent-
potential installations of up to 6.5 GW. ing 42% new grid-connected capacity. Another 4 countries
will see offshore installations: Germany (3.5 GW), Belgium
The onshore market will remain stable with a slight de- (1.5 GW), the Netherlands (1.4 GW) and Denmark (1.0
crease towards the end of the 4-year period, mainly due GW). In 2019, annual installations in offshore will reach
to lower planned activity in Germany. However, we expect to over 4 GW.
Spain to experience radical growth after several years of
inactivity; following the recent tenders, the industry is
gearing up to install 4.1 GW of capacity.
6 Wind energy in Europe: Outlook to 2020
Executive summary
In the first half of 2017
In total, we estimate that developers have installed across During this period, 11 EU Member States have announced
the EU-28 about 6.1 GW of capacity in the first half of new wind energy investments totalling €8.1bn for 4.1 GW
2017: 4.8 GW onshore and 1.3 GW offshore. Activity has of new assets. Germany was the biggest investor, with
been concentrated in Germany, UK and France with a over €4.5bn and 1.8 GW of new capacity financed. Invest-
share of 82%. 15 countries out of the EU-28 saw no in- ment activity in the country accounted for 53% of the Eu-
stallations for this period while only 8 countries surpassed ropean market. With no offshore wind projects reaching
the 100 MW mark. The activity in the offshore market is Final Investment Decision in the UK during this period,
2.6 times higher than for the first half of 2016, with 6 wind investments dropped to a record low below €1bn.
farms bringing additional capacity in 4 countries (Germa-
ny, the UK, Belgium and Finland).
FIGURE B
Investments in new wind energy assets per country during first half 2017, in the EU1
4,500 4,500
4,000 4,000
3,500 3,500
3,000 3,000
2,500 2,500
mEUR
MW
2,000 2,000
1,500 1,500
1,000 1,000
500 500
0 0
y
en
K
n
ce
e
ly
d
d
um
ia
an
ec
U
ai
an
an
Ita
tr
an
ed
Sp
gi
m
us
re
el
nl
Fr
el
Sw
er
Ir
G
Fi
A
B
G
Total new investments (mEUR) Total new capacity financed (MW)
Source: WindEurope
1. Projects reaching First Investment Decision.
7 Wind energy in Europe: Outlook to 2020
Executive summary
New added 50-60%
ADDITIONAL WIND ENERGY
50 GW
capacity Share
(2017-2020)
40-50% COULD COVER
16.5%
of wind
in power 30-40%
GW demand
IN THE EU IN THE NEXT 20-30%
Cumulative
FOUR YEARS, TOTALING installed 10-20% OF EU ELECTRICITY
204 GW in 2020 capacity
(2020) 0-10%
DEMAND IN 2020
0.8
1.5
1.6
6.5
0.3
0.3
0
16.5 0.06
1.5 0.1
5.2 0.4
1.1 7.7
50
2.8 14
0.8
3.1
4.3 5.7
2.3
2.3 0.04 0.1
0.05 0.2 0
0.03
6 0.8 0
2.6 0
0.3
12 3
0
0.3
0.03
0.4
1.6
0
3.7 9.2 0.6
0.4
23
5.3
0.8
2.3
0.05 0
0 0.1
8 Wind energy in Europe: Outlook to 2020
WindEurope's Central Scenario
1.
THE EUROPEAN
WIND ENERGY
MARKET TODAY
1.1 MARKET EVOLUTION
At the end of June 2017, the European Union had a total 5 GW installed. Seven additional EU countries have over 1
of 159.5 GW of wind power capacity installed (145.5 GW GW of installed capacity: Austria, Belgium, Finland, Greece,
onshore and 14.0 GW offshore). Germany remains the EU Ireland, the Netherlands and Romania.Annual wind power
Member State with the largest installed capacity, followed installations in the EU have increased more or less stead-
by Spain, the UK, France and Italy. Four other EU countries ily over the past 11 years from 6.6 GW in 2005 to 12.5
(Sweden, Denmark, Poland and Portugal) have more than GW in 2016 at an average annual rate of 11 GW per year.
FIGURE 1
Annual wind energy installations 2005-2017
14 180
3 1.6
12
1.2 1.6 1.5 160
0.6 0.9
140
10 0.8
Cumulative (GW)
0.3 120
0.3
8 0.1 100
0.1
GW
1.3
6 80
60
4
40
2 6.5 7.1 8.6 8.1 9.7 9 8.9 10.9 10 10.5 9.8 10.9 4.8
20
0 0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 H1
Onshore Offshore Cumulative
Source: WindEurope
9 Wind energy in Europe: Outlook to 2020
The European wind energy market today
1.2 FIRST HALF OF 2017
During the first half of 2017, project developers installed energy installations in this period, while eight countries
6.1 GW of wind energy in the EU; 4.8 GW onshore and surpassed the 100 MW mark.
1.3 GW offshore. 15 out of 28 countries had no wind
FIGURE 2
Wind energy installations in the first half of 2017
3.5
3 0.6
2.5
2
2.3
0.5
GW
1.5
1
1.2
0.5
0.2
0.5 0.2 0.2
0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.05 0.02 0.02 0.01
0
Onshore Offshore Source: WindEurope
Germany installed almost half of the EU’s new onshore in Poland (6 MW), Sweden (23 MW), Finland (50 MW),
wind energy capacity with 2.3 GW in this period. The UK Greece (46 MW), and Portugal (0 MW).
followed with close to 1.2 GW, representing almost one
quarter of the total installations. This high volume of in- Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Cyprus, Hungary,
stallations in the UK was due to the end of the Renew- Latvia and Romania have yet to install a single MW since
able Obligation Certificate’s grace period in March 2017. 2016.
Developers rushed to complete projects before this dead-
line. With 492 MW of new installed capacity in H1 2017,
82%
France is on track for another good year of installations.
These three countries accounted for more than 80% of
the EU’s onshore installations, highlighting a very high
market concentration.
OF THE NEW WIND CAPACITY
12 more countries had new onshore installations in the
first half of the year. Italy and Ireland installed 187 MW
IN THE FIRST HALF OF 2017
and 159 MW respectively. Both countries kept a constant WAS INSTALLED IN
installation rate, as in 2016. By contrast, the first half of
2017 represents a significant slowdown in installations 3 COUNTRIES
10 Wind energy in Europe: Outlook to 2020The European wind energy market today
FIGURE 3
Onshore wind installations in the first half of 2017. Total 4,775 MW
Netherlands Others*
88 MW 206 MW
2% 2%
Austria
107 MW
2%
Ireland
159 MW
4%
Italy
187 MW
4% France Germany
Belgium 492 MW 2,281 MW
10% 48%
105 MW
2%
UK
1,151 MW
24%
*Others: include Denmark (60 MW), Finland (50 MW),
Greece (46 MW), Sweden (23 MW), Croatia (21 MW) and Poland (6 MW)
Source: WindEurope
Germany connected 48% of the net capacity, largely with
the commissioning of the Veja Mate wind farm. The Unit-
245 ed Kingdom connected 38% of the EU’s capacity, mainly
thanks to the completion of the Burbo Bank extension
wind farm. Belgium represented 12% of the total share
and Finland 2% with 1 project in each country.
NEW GRID -CONNECTED
OFFSHORE WIND TURBINES 84% of the installations were in the North Sea, 15% in the
IN 6 WIND FARMS Irish Sea and 1% in the Baltic Sea. Whilst the latter had
very little capacity, construction works started at the 350
MW Wikinger offshore wind farm.
Offshore wind in Europe saw a net 1,344 MW of addition-
al installed grid-connected capacity from 1 January to 30
June 2017. This was 2.6 times the amount installed over
the same period last year. This new capacity came from
six offshore wind farms across four countries and totalling
245 grid-connected turbines. 189 new foundations were
installed and 294 turbines were erected.
11 Wind energy in Europe: Outlook to 2020The European wind energy market today
FIGURE 4
Offshore wind country split and grid connected farms in H1 of 2017
Nobelwind (Belwind II) Pori Tahkoluoto 1 Nordsee One Sandbank
165 MW 21 MW 72 MW 52 MW
Finland
21 MW
2%
Race Bank Dan Tysk
78 MW Belgium 14 MW
165 MW
12%
Veja Mate
Germany 402 MW
641 MW
48%
Dudgeon East UK
240 MW 518 MW
38%
Burbo Bank Extension
200 MW
Source: WindEurope
12 Wind energy in Europe: Outlook to 2020The European wind energy market today
FIGURE 5
Summary of work in offshore wind farms between 1st January and 30th June 2017
160 8
140 7
Number of foundations / turbines
120 6
Number of wind farms
100 5
80 4
60 3
40 2
20 1
0 0
Finland Belgium United Germany
Kingdom
Number of foundations installed Number of turbines erected
Number of turbines grid connected Number of wind farms
Source: WindEurope
Out of the 245 turbines grid-connected in the first half Offshore wind farms are generally owned by multiple par-
of 2017, 58% were provided by Siemens, 31% by Senvi- ties, due to the large investments needed and the need to
on and 11% by MHI Vestas. Wind turbine capacity rating diversify risk. For the first half of the year, 18 owners have
ranged between 4.2 MW and 8 MW, with an average of been involved in the six wind farms that connected wind
5.8 MW. This is a 39% increase in size over the same peri- turbines to the grid.
od last year. Only six out of the 16 sites under construction
in 2017 will use turbines rated below or equal to 5 MW. Power producers own almost half (49%) of the capacity
Seven sites will use 6 MW turbines, one site will use 7 MW connected to the grid in H1 2017. However, infrastructure
turbines and two sites will use 8 MW turbines. 25 8 MW and pension funds are steadily increasing their participa-
wind turbines have been grid-connected already at the tion, accounting this for 38% in the first half of 2017, com-
Burbo Bank extension wind farm in H1 2017. pared to 25.2% in the first half of 2016.
Northland Power connected the most capacity in the
THE AVERAGE SIZE OF first half of 2017, 142 MW, representing 10.9%, followed
by DONG Energy with 139 MW (10.3%). Laidlaw Capital
GRID-CONNECTED TURBINES
Group (10.2%), Siemens (9.9%) and Copenhagen Infra-
IN THE 1ST HALF OF 2017 WAS structure Partners (7.6%) completed the top five owners
5.8 MW
in new additional capacity.
13 Wind energy in Europe: Outlook to 2020The European wind energy market today
FIGURE 6
Offshore wind developers’ share of new grid connected capacity between 1st January and 30th June 2017
% Of new installed capacity
0% 1.5% 3% 4.5% 6% 7.5% 9% 10.5% 12%
Northland Power
DONG Energy
Laidlaw Capital Group
Siemens
Copenhagen Infraestructure
Partners
Statoil
Masdar
Statkraft Corporate
4%
Parkwind
Sumitomo
Kirkbi A/S (Lego group)
PKA
Power Financial
Macquarie Capital Producer Services
49% 34%
Vattenfall
Meewind
Stadtwerke München Industrial
Player
Innogy 10%
Suoemn Hyötytuuli Oy
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
New installed capacity owned in MW
Source: WindEurope
14 Wind energy in Europe: Outlook to 2020The European wind energy market today
Investment trends
The wind energy industry generated new investments investment activity. In addition to the financing of new
of €8.1bn during the first half of 2017. A total of 4.1 GW wind farms, the first half of 2017 also saw €3.2bn in refi-
reached Final Investment Decision (FID) in 11 Member nancing transactions. The sector generated a total invest-
States, with onshore wind projects driving most of the ment of €11.3bn.
FIGURE 7
Wind sector investments during H1 2017 in the EU. Total €11,351m
Refinancing Construction:
transactions: Offshore wind
Onshore and projects
offshore wind €2,920m
€ 3,209m
Construction:
Onshore wind
projects
€5,222m
Source: WindEurope
During the first half of 2017, the European market has
53%
remained very uneven, with only 11 EU Member States
announcing new wind energy investments during this pe-
riod; a trend that follows that of previous years.
Germany was the biggest investor, with over €4.5bn and OF NEW INVESTMENTS WERE
1.8 GW of new capacity financed. Investment activity in
the country accounted for 53% of the European invest-
IN GERMANY
ments market.
With no offshore wind projects reaching Final Investment
Decision in the UK, investments in this country dropped to
a record low of €784 million.
15 Wind energy in Europe: Outlook to 2020The European wind energy market today
FIGURE 8
Wind investments per country during H1 2017 in the EU
4,500 4,500
4,000 4,000
3,500 3,500
3,000 3,000
2,500 2,500
mEUR
MW
2,000 2,000
1,500 1,500
1,000 1,000
500 500
0 0
y
en
K
n
ce
e
ly
d
d
um
ia
an
ec
U
ai
an
an
Ita
tr
an
ed
Sp
gi
m
us
re
el
nl
Fr
el
Sw
er
Ir
G
Fi
A
B
G
Total new investments (mEUR) Total new capacity financed (MW)
Source: WindEurope
Only three offshore wind projects, totalling 834 MW in the first half of 2017 for an estimated investment value of
Germany, reached Final Investment Decision (FID) during €2.9bn. This compares to €14bn and 3.7 GW in new assets.
FIGURE 9
Offshore wind projects reaching Final Investment Decision during H1 2017
EnbW Hohe See
492 MW project capacity
€ 1,800m project cost
€2.9bn new
investments Trianel Windpark Borkum II
203 MW project capacity
834 MW new
€ 800m project cost
capacity financed
OWP Albatros
112 MW project capacity
€ 320m project cost
Source: WindEurope
16 Wind energy in Europe: Outlook to 2020The European wind energy market today
The equity mix continues to bring in more corporates, surance, infrastructure and private equity funds, are grad-
financial institutions and, in particular for offshore wind, ually increasing their participation in both onshore and
overseas investors. However, power producers still lift offshore wind markets. During the first half of 2017, they
most of the equity requirements, especially through the acquired 40% of the divested wind capacity.
development phase. Finance houses, such as pension, in-
FIGURE 10
Project acquisition activity by type of investor during H1 2017 in the EU
Pension funds
338 MW
8%
Infrastructure funds
422 MW
10%
Diversified financial
services
892 MW Power producers
22% 2,364 MW
57%
Independent power
producers
113 MW
3%
Source: WindEurope
17 Wind energy in Europe: Outlook to 20202.
MID-TERM WIND
ENERGY MARKET
OUTLOOK
2.1 INTRODUCTION Towards market-based support schemes
The mid-term wind energy market outlook analy- Following the guidance of the European Commission, a
ses the likely development of wind power capacity in large number of Member States have already moved to-
the EU Member States in the next four years. It con- wards feed-in-premiums, limiting the use of feed-in-tar-
sists of three scenarios reflecting the potential de- iffs to small installations and emerging renewable energy
velopments in EU regulatory frameworks, national technologies. For instance, in Germany only installations
policies, project development timelines (see Table 1) below 100 kW are eligible for feed-in-tariffs. A few coun-
and the performance of the wind industry in winning tries such as Finland and Ireland still remain on feed-in-tar-
capacity in upcoming technology-neutral auctions. iff systems but will need to update their support scheme
before the end of 2017. Green certificates is another mar-
ket-based instrument supported by the European Com-
2.2 POLICY CONTEXT mission. However, having already been abandoned by
Poland and the UK for new projects, green certificates use
In 2014 the European Commission introduced new rules is limited to Sweden, Norway and Belgium.
on State-Aid for renewable energy sources. Those changes
are taking effect today with a shift to competitive tender
mechanisms and the use of market-based instruments.
The European institutions are currently discussing the
policy framework for the post-2020 period, mainly with
the revision of the Renewable Energy Directive and a sig-
nificant reform of Energy Market Design rules (the Clean
Energy Package)2.
2. https://ec.europa.eu/energy/en/news/commission-proposes-new-rules-consumer-centred-clean-energy-transition
18 Wind energy in Europe: Outlook to 2020Mid-term wind energy market outlook
Considerations on projects’ development timeline
Wind energy projects are characterised by a significant time lapse between the moment a promoter is granted a support
mechanism (e.g. tender results announcement) and the moment the wind farm starts to operate (grid connection).
In the case of onshore wind projects, this time is approximately two years, while for offshore wind projects it can take
around five years. The overall project timeline is much longer: this includes site investigation, resource assessment, envi-
ronmental impact assessments and other technical studies and consultations with local communities and other admin-
istrative procedures. This is why it is crucial to have good visibility on upcoming tenders and the regulatory framework.
Once a support mechanisms is granted or the capacity is awarded to the developer, the time allowed to realise projects is
largely dependent on the regulatory framework. For instance, in Germany, large developers have a 30-month implemen-
tation deadline while community projects are allowed to connect their turbines to the grid up to 54 months after auction
allocation. This might in principle extend the time gap between auction results and new grid-connection installations.
Considering these timescales, the offshore volumes presented in this outlook (new installations grid-connected between
2017 and 2020) are therefore based on support allocation that has already taken place. The accuracy is thus very high.
For onshore, the installations in 2017, 2018 and 2019 are mostly based on the support and volumes allocated before
the end of 2016. However, there is a degree of uncertainty for installations in 2019 and 2020 that could be affected by
upcoming planned tenders (Spain and France) and by tenders not yet announced at the time of publication.
For the investment outlook, onshore projects Final Investment Decision (FID) takes places 1 year before grid connection
while the FID timescale for offshore wind projects is based on individual project analysis (from 2 to 3 years).
Phase
DEVELOPMENT PRE-CONSTRUCTION CONSTRUCTION
Environmental Grid & building Site conditioning, Construction
planning permits, detailed design, and comissioning,
Activity
& permitting, site layout, procurement, grid connection.
feasibility studies, technology review. financial close.
wind assessment.
3-5 years 2-4 years 2 years
Offshore
Timing
Onshore
2-5 years 1-2 years < 1 year
Support
FID*
allocation
19 Wind energy in Europe: Outlook to 2020
*First investment decisionMid-term wind energy market outlook
2020 RES targets setting the pace
As part of the European objectives for 2020, the binding These countries will need to accelerate the pace of in-
targets for renewable energy will have a significant influ- stallations to fulfil their commitments. Poland is the only
ence on wind energy installations for the next four years. country among the four aforementioned without any
In Eastern Europe, most countries have already achieved clear plan/objective to the reach their target.
their targets, which will lead to low installations in the
coming years. Romania, which was once a leading country Other countries, such as Sweden and Denmark, have
for the Eastern European market, will see no more new achieved or are well on track to reaching their 2020 tar-
installations before the end of 2020. get but will continue to install more wind capacity beyond
2020. These countries have set national energy plans with
By contrast, some countries are rushing to ensure they concrete renewable energy goals. As an example, Den-
reach their objectives in the years leading into 2020. This mark is aiming to go for 100% renewable power by 2035,
is the case of Spain, which after a few years of no activity, which forces a renewable trajectory to 2020 that goes
has recently auctioned 8 GW of new renewable capacity far beyond the European targets. Sweden, which plans
(4.1 GW of wind energy awarded). to reach 100% of renewable electricity by 2040, will also
need to overshoot its 2020 European target.
France, Ireland, the Netherlands and Luxembourg are
likely to miss their targets, while Hungary and Polan have
hindered any additional renewable energy deployment.
20 Wind energy in Europe: Outlook to 2020Mid-term wind energy market outlook
Policy Outlook
Positive
Neutral
Negative
2020 RES target
Achieved
On track
Not on track
21 Wind energy in Europe: Outlook to 2020Mid-term wind energy market outlook
TABLE 2
Summary of wind energy policy landscape per Member State
COUNTRY UPCOMING DEVELOPMENTS
Austria Changes in the Green Energy Act will unlock at least 350 MW in the current pipeline
Large development offshore but some risks of retroactive changes on the already awarded
Belgium
support schemes
Bulgaria No more incentives to build new wind assets as 2020 RES target is achieved
Czech Republic Wind installations to remain subject to Ministry of Industry approval
The scheme for onshore wind expires in February 2018. One year stand still is unavoidable until
Denmark
new scheme introduced
Estonia Incentives to remain with a yearly production cap at 600 GWh despite reaching their RES target.
Finland FIT applications to end once the capacity limit of 2,500 MVA is exceeded
France Government objective sets a realistic objective of 15 GW by 2018 and at least 25.8 GW by 2023
Full switch to tenders system both for onshore and offshore with good visibility and long term
Germany
certainty
Greece Switch to auction system with Feed-in-Premium as of 2018
Hungary No incentives to build new wind assets as 2020 RES target is achieved
Ireland Ongoing discussions regarding a new incentive scheme that will replace REFIT II
Italy Auction system to remain but no planned auctions yet communicated
Government sets a new target of 30% of RES in final energy consumption by 2020 (beyond their
Lithuania
original 2020 obligation)
Projects still supported by the SDE+ (budget auction) until 2020. Target of 6 GW of onshore wind
Netherlands
by 2020 unlikely to be met. Offshore target of 4.5 GW by 2023
Current legislation highly restricts installations. Ongoing Parliament discussion to improve the
Poland
situation
Portugal No more incentive to build new wind assets as 2020 RES target is achieved
Romania No more incentive to build new wind assets as 2020 RES target is achieved
Revival of the market after three consecutive tenders in 2016-2017. Investment conditions
Spain
remain poor as retroactive changes are allowed in the regulation
Target of addition 18 TWh RES electricity by 2030 but exponential trajectory with strong growth
Sweden
only at the end of the period
End of the Renewable Obligation Certificate system. Offshore wind still supported through
UK
auctions
22 Wind energy in Europe: Outlook to 2020Mid-term wind energy market outlook
Tenders leading the pathway for market growth
The use of competitive bidding processes (e.g. tenders) producers need to reimburse the government if whole-
as from January 2017 is another condition established sale market prices are above the guaranteed strike price
by the European Commission in order for Member (e.g. contracts for difference in the UK). In other cases,
States to comply with state-aid regulation. Prior to 2017, governments provide support to the investment (instead
some governments had already implemented compet- of operational support) calculated as a discount of the in-
itive auctions to select wind energy projects. After the itial investment to ensure a fixed internal rate of return
first offshore Danish auction in 2005 (which lead to the (e.g. Spain). Some of the tenders are based on pay-as-
wind farm Horns Rev 2), many offshore projects have clear allocation (all producers receive the same amount,
been awarded through auctions (in the UK, the Nether- resulting from the highest awarded bidder), while others
lands, Germany, France). Portugal was the first European are based on pay-as-bid (e.g. offshore tender in Germany
country to use competitive auctions to award onshore with large spread between the winners).
projects, but remained an isolated case until 2013 when
Italy introduced this system. Until 2017, less than 10 GW In addition, the timeline for project realisation is very dif-
were allocated to onshore wind via competitive auctions, ferent between onshore and offshore wind projects. Ten-
mainly in the UK, the Netherlands, Italy and Portugal. ders for offshore wind energy projects awarded in 2017
need to be commissioned by 2025 at the latest, while
Between 2017 and 2020, more than 27 GW are already onshore projects awarded the same year will need to pro-
set in the plans of five countries for auctions includ- duce electricity by 2019. For offshore projects, the loca-
ing wind energy. Most of this capacity will be auctioned tion (e.g. distance to shore, depth of the sea basin) is also
in 2017, with more than 12 GW planned. We expect a determining factor for prices.
other countries to make additional announcements.
The evolution of tender results for wind energy in Eu-
rope has recently shown drastic cost reductions. Howev-
27 GW
er, comparison between results is complex, owing to the
widely differing range of tender designs. For instance, the
price can be guaranteed for 10 or 20 years, or for a fixed
AT LEAST OF
number of full-load hours (e.g. Denmark). In some cases, PLANNED AUCTIONS BETWEEN
2017 AND 2020
23 Wind energy in Europe: Outlook to 2020Mid-term wind energy market outlook
FIGURE 13
Announced tenders until 2020
2017 2018 2019 2020
500 MW
700 MW
800 MW 1,000 MW
700 MW 700 MW 1,000 MW
644 MW 1,000 MW 200 MW
500 MW 700 MW 950 MW
Unknown
April July October date April August November May November June
18.5
Onshore GW
March May August November February May November February August February October
1,128 MW 500 MW 700 MW 500 MW
200 MW 500 MW 500 MW 950 MW
700 MW
2,979 MW
Budget 700 MW 700 MW
auction
1,550 MW 700 MW 700 MW
700 MW
March
September 8.4
Offshore GW
May Unknown Unknown Unknown
date date date
1,550 MW
3,196 MW
Technology neutral
Technology specific Source: WindEurope
24 Wind energy in Europe: Outlook to 2020Mid-term wind energy market outlook
FIGURE 14
Results of wind energy tenders 2013-2017. Transmission connection costs are only included in UK offshore project. Price
range refers to tenders with pay-as bid prices or several tenders happening on the same date
200
180
160
140
€ / MWh
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Price range Onshore Offshore
Source: WindEurope
2.3 MARKET OUTLOOK
By 2020, wind energy in Europe will reach between 195 GW EU annual installations are expected to decrease in 2018
(Low Scenario) and 217 GW (High Scenario) of cumulative due to a slow-down in Germany and the UK. We expect
installed capacity. WindEurope expects 204 GW in its Cen- a revival in 2019 with a record year for offshore wind in-
tral Scenario with an average annual market of 12.6 GW. stallations and a massive amount of Spanish onshore in-
stallations connecting to the grid as a result of the 4.1 GW
For many countries in Europe, 2017 is a transitional year awarded in the two tenders in 2017.
to new support schemes and tender mechanisms. There-
fore, it is likely to see a peak of installations as developers However, the onshore market will experience a general
rush to complete their projects in order to secure morat- slow-down in annual installations towards 2020, main-
tractive conditions under the old existing rules. ly due to lower planned activity in the German onshore
market.
While there is a good visibility on future projects in Spain,
2017
Germany, the Netherlands and France, the uncertainty on
the time to deliver them will be a crucial factor that could
IS EXPECTED either accelerate (+5 GW in the High Scenario) or slow
down (-3.5 GW in the Low Scenario) the market activity.
TO BE A NEW RECORD In addition, the deployment of new tenders in Poland and
the UK, could add new potential installations after 2019
YEAR IN WIND INSTALLATIONS (+2.5 GW in the High Scenario). Finally, some countries,
including Ireland, Finland and Greece still need to define
their new support schemes to comply with the EU State-
Aid guidelines. Depending on how soon this happens the
market could be up (+2.5 GW in the High Scenario) or
down (-0.5 GW in the Low Scenario).
25 Wind energy in Europe: Outlook to 2020Mid-term wind energy market outlook
The offshore market will grow at a higher rate than today. Uncertainties included in the Low and High Scenarios are
With an average 3.1 GW/year in WindEurope’s Central related to the risk of retroactive changes on the Belgian
Scenario, offshore wind will represent about one quarter projects that were awarded without tenders and the
of the total market by 2020 (compared to a 15% share potential installations of projects ahead of schedule in
in the last 4-year period, between 2013 and 2016). The France, Germany or Estonia in the most optimistic pro-
offshore market will concentrate mainly in the UK with 5.2 jections.
GW or 42% of the new grid-connected capacity. Anoth-
er four countries will see offshore installations: Germany
(3.5 GW), Belgium (1.5 GW), the Netherlands (1.4 GW)
and Denmark (1.0 GW). The offshore market will peak in
2019 with annual installations over 4 GW.
OFFSHORE WILL
REPRESENT ONE QUARTER
OF THE MARKET BY
2020
FIGURE 15
Wind energy outlook to 2020 in the EU
18
16
14
12
10
GW
8
6
4
2
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Onshore Offshore Low High Central
Source: WindEurope
26 Wind energy in Europe: Outlook to 2020Mid-term wind energy market outlook
In terms of cumulative installed capacity, Germany will
remain the country with the most capacity installed with
between 65.5 to 68.5 GW (66.5 GW in the Central Sce-
CUMULATIVE
nario). Spain will follow with 25 to 27.5 GW (26.5 GW in INSTALLED CAPACITY
the Central Scenario) and the UK will be the third largest
country with a total of 7.8 to 23.3 GW (22 GW in the Cen-
COULD REACH
204 GW
tral Scenario), with almost half of that capacity (10 GW)
being offshore.
IN 2020
FIGURE 16
Expected cumulative installed capacity until 2020
250
200
150
GW
100
50
0
06
09
10
19
20
05
07
08
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Onshore Offshore Low High
Source: WindEurope
2.3.1 CENTRAL SCENARIO
WindEurope’s Central Scenario provides a best estimate In the Central Scenario, the planned tenders in Germany,
of the installed capacity in Europe in the next four years. France and Spain provide good visibility on the post-2018
This scenario takes into account the pipeline of wind ener- market development. In addition, in France and the Neth-
gy projects and the ongoing and future legislation in each erlands, the objectives set respectively for 2023 and 2020
Member State that could enable the deployment of vol- provide clear guidance on the deployment of wind ca-
umes. In addition, it reflects on a case-by-case basis the pacity. In Poland, the Wind Farm Act remains applicable,
impact of the 2020 targets. For offshore wind, the Central putting a pipeline of 2.2 GW of onshore projects at risk.
Scenario assumes that all projects are built according to a Also, the UK will decrease its activity in onshore wind from
realistic timeline. 1.6 GW in 2016 to almost none in 2020, while shifting the
government focus to offshore wind.
27 Wind energy in Europe: Outlook to 2020Mid-term wind energy market outlook
FIGURE 17
Wind energy market outlook in the EU28 under WindEurope’s Central Scenario
16 250
3.1
14 4
3
1.2 1.6 1.5
1.6 3.3 200
12
2.2
Cumulative (GW)
0.6 0.9 0.8
10 10.9 150
0.3 10.5 10.9
0.3 9.7 10 10.9
GW
8 0.1 8.6 9 8.9 9.8 8.9 9.3
8.1 8.6
0.1
6 7.1
100
6.5
4
50
2
0 0
06
09
10
19
20
05
07
08
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Onshore Offshore Cumulative
Source: WindEurope
Under the central scenario, 2017 will mark a record year, the third largest European market and could install up to
with a revival in 2019 and a considerable decrease to- 6.5 GW of additional wind energy by 2020. Spain, the Neth-
wards 2020, with the lowest level observed since 2014. erlands and Belgium should follow with 3.7 GW, 3.2 GW
Uncertainty for the onshore market after 2020 is very high and 2.3 GW respectively in the same 4-year period.
as most EU Member States still do not have post-2020 en-
ergy plans in place. Between 2017 and 2020 onshore installations will be
37.7 GW. Germany will be the leader in onshore wind
with 12.9 GW, followed by France (6 GW) and Spain
(3.7 GW). The UK will only be the fourth country in on-
ONSHORE WIND ENERGY
shore wind installations as it should install close to 2.6 GW.
INSTALLATIONS IN 2020
The offshore market will concentrate mainly in the UK
COULD BE THE LOWEST with 5.2 GW or 42% new grid-connected capacity in the
2008
period 2017-2020. Following the UK, another 4 countries
SINCE will see offshore installations: Germany (3.5 GW), Belgium
(1.4 GW), the Netherlands (1.3 GW) and Denmark (1.0 GW).
In the Central Scenario, the market concentration in Ger-
Germany will represent over one third of new installed many will gradually decrease from 40% in 2016 to less
capacity in the next 4 years, with a total of 16.5 GW. The than 30% in 2020, thanks to significant developments in
second largest market is the UK, with two thirds of its new France and Spain.
installations offshore. With a government objective of 15
GW of cumulative capacity by 2018, France will become
28 Wind energy in Europe: Outlook to 2020Mid-term wind energy market outlook
However, the wind energy market will mostly be in West-
ern European countries. Eastern Europe will have a very
small proportion of the market in the next 4 years, with
GERMANY WILL BE
less than 3% of new installations, mostly in Poland, Croa-
tia, Estonia and Czech Republic.
ONE THIRD OF ALL NEW
INSTALLED CAPACITY UNTIL
2020
FIGURE 18
4-year installations (2017-2020) per country under WindEurope’s Central Scenario*
18 3.5
12.9
16
14
12
GW
10
5.1
2.6
8
0.002
6
6
0.03
4 3.7 1.3
1.7 1.4
0.9 0 0.03 0.9
0
2 1.6 1.5 0.5
1.1
0 0.04 0 0
0.02 0 0
0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 0 0 0 0
0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.05 0.04
0
Onshore Offshore
*WindEurope expects no new installations in Cyprus, Hungary, Romania, Latvia, Bulgaria,
Slovakia and Slovenia
Source: WindEurope
29 Wind energy in Europe: Outlook to 2020Mid-term wind energy market outlook
FIGURE 19
Market share by region under WindEurope’s Central Scenario
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Germany South Western Europe France and Benelux
UK and Ireland Others (Nordics & Austria) Central Eastern Europe
Source: WindEurope
2.3.2 LOW SCENARIO
In the Low Scenario, European governments propose no Market concentration resembles that of WindEurope’s
positive improvements from current legislation. Conse- Central Scenario (see Figure 19), with most of the market
quently, all countries with no incentives for wind energy activity in Western Europe.
remain with no new installations even if they are yet to
reach their renewable energy targets. The permitted and In Germany, Spain, the Netherlands and France, longer
already supported pipeline is built but unfavourable na- time to deliver onshore projects will lead to respectively
tional policies for permitting and planning persist; this re- 0.8 GW, 1.5 GW, 0.5 GW and 0.4 GW less installed capacity
sults in a slow pace of installations for existing permitted in the period 2017-2020 than in the Central Scenario. In
projects and in a significant slowdown for awarding new Sweden, the oversupply of green certificates would persist,
projects. The outlook remains positive in countries that thereby decreasing their price. This would lead to 1.2 GW
have sent strong political signals to the wind energy indus- less installed capacity than in the Central Scenario. Den-
try in recent years. mark would see no new onshore wind capacity before the
end of 2020 due to permitting issues and problems with
Under the low scenario, whilst 2017 is still a good year in public acceptance.
installations, in 2019, there is no significant revamp of the
market (in contrast to the Central Scenario), and it progres- Offshore, WindEurope’s Low Scenario considers that the
sively decreases towards the end of the 4-year period. Belgian projects support scheme awarded without ten-
ders would be retroactively changed, which would lead to
600 MW less installed capacity than in the Central Scenario.
30 Wind energy in Europe: Outlook to 2020Mid-term wind energy market outlook
FIGURE 20
Annual and cumulative installations under WindEurope’s Low Scenario
14 250
3 1.6
1.5 2.8
1.2 1.6
12
0.6 3.6 200
0.9 0.8 2.9
Cumulative (GW)
10 10.9
0.3 10.9 2
0.3 10.5
9.7 10
8
9.8
9.6 150
0.1 8.6 9 8.9
GW
0.1 8.1
7.2
6 7.1 6.9 100
6.5
6.5
4
50
2
0 0
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Onshore Offshore Cumulative
Source: WindEurope
2.3.3 HIGH SCENARIO
In the high scenario, all EU countries are able to achieve Importantly, markets that expect very few installations
their 2020 renewable energy targets. The legislative under the Central Scenario such as Poland, Bulgaria or
framework is improved in those countries where current Hungary would witness positive developments that would
planning and permitting rules are slowing down or even allow for respectively 1.5 GW, 0.2 GW and 0.1 GW more
jeopardizing the market. Those changes would allow de- capacity than in the Central Scenario. With this capacity,
velopers to build the current project pipeline entirely. Eastern Europe would make up 8% of the market by 2020
Governments also boost the auction volumes to acceler- instead of 3% in the Central Scenario.
ate the pace of installations and also ensure more cost re-
duction. Offshore, all projects are built according to their Offshore, the high scenario sees the early realisation
more optimistic schedule. of a few more projects than in the Central Scenario.
Four 24 MW floating offshore wind pilot projects would
After an impressive 2017 year record with over 16 GW be commissioned in France in 2020. In addition, Estonia
of installed capacity (14 GW under the Central Scenario), would start commissioning its first offshore wind project,
2019 would mark another record with over 17 GW, 3.7 GW Loode Eesti Meretuulepark, with 250 MW installed out of
more than under the Central Scenario. the 700-1,100 MW potential capacity of the full project.
A cooperation agreement would be signed between the
Germany, Spain, the Netherlands and France would ac- Hiiu rural municipality and the project developer.
celerate their projects to reach respectively 2 GW, 1 GW,
1 GW and 0.7 GW more new installed capacity in the peri-
od 2017-2020 than in the Central Scenario. The UK would
launch a new 1 GW onshore wind tender that would in-
crease its installed capacity by 2020.
31 Wind energy in Europe: Outlook to 2020Mid-term wind energy market outlook
FIGURE 21
Market and cumulative installations under WindEurope’s High Scenario
18 4.4 250
3.4 3.6
16
2.5
14 200
3
Cumulative (GW)
1.5 1.6
1.2 1.6
12
0.6 12.9 12.6 150
0.9 0.8 12.2 11.9
10 0.3 10.9 10.9
GW
0.3 9.7 10.5 9.8
8 0.1 8.6 9 8.9 10
0.1 8.1 100
6 7.1
6.5
4 50
2
0 0
11
18
16
19
10
12
13
08
15
14
06
09
20
05
17
07
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Onshore Offshore Cumulative
Source: WindEurope
2.4 INVESTMENT OUTLOOK
According to WindEurope, between 75 and 95 €bn in in- with regulatory uncertainty for the post-2020 period, is
vestments in new assets will be needed moving forward also slowing down activity in some wind energy markets.
to 2020. Under the Central Scenario, €90bn of invest- While auctions are being rolled out in a larger number of
ments in new assets will be needed. markets, there will be a lull in investments before they
lead to new project final investment decisions (FIDs).
Whilst 2016 saw a record level of new investments, low-
er volumes are expected in the next 4 years, mainly due
to two reasons. Firstly, cost reductions across the value
chain have made it possible for investors to finance more
capacity with less funds. Secondly, the transition from
Feed-in Tariffs to auctions and Feed-in-Premiums, along
32 Wind energy in Europe: Outlook to 2020Mid-term wind energy market outlook
FIGURE 22
Investment outlook in new assets for the period 2017-2020 under WindEurope’s Central Scenario (in bn€)9
30
25
20
€ bn
15
10
5
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Offshore Onshore
Source: WindEurope
9. Projects reaching first investment decision
33 Wind energy in Europe: Outlook to 2020Mid-term wind energy market outlook
2.5 GLOBAL WIND ENERGY
MARKET OUTLOOK
With more than 50 GW of new additions in the 2017-2020
period under the central scenario, the EU-28 will repre-
sent slightly less than a quarter of global installations,
NEW INSTALLATIONS
significantly lower than China, which expects to install IN THE EU WILL REPRESENT
22%
almost the double (84GW). Onshore wind installations in
the US will be similar to those in Europe. However, no ad-
ditions are expected on offshore wind technology. With
8% of world’s market in the period, India is expected to
bring additional 17 GW of onshore capacity. OF WORLD’S MARKET
FIGURE 23
Global wind installations in 2017-2020
Other
17% EU28
India 22%
7%
US
16% China
38%
90
80
70
60
50
GW
40
30
20
10
0
EU28 China US India
Onshore Offshore
Source: WindEurope, IEA
34 Wind energy in Europe: Outlook to 2020Mid-term wind energy market outlook
2.6 RENEWABLE ENERGY
SOURCES OUTLOOK
Under WindEurope’s Central Scenario, wind power would
account for more than half of new renewable installations
between 2017 and 2020 in the EU. With 37% of new in- MORE THAN HALF OF NEW
stallations, solar PV will become the second source of RENEWABLE INSTALLATIONS
growth in renewable capacity. Solar PV and wind energy
will together represent almost 90% of new renewable ca-
IN THE EU WILL BE FROM
pacity. WIND ENERGY
FIGURE 24
Net growth in renewable capacity in 2017-2020
Bioenergy
7%
Hydro
4% Other
EU28
22%
Solar US
PV Wind
37% 16% China52%
38%
60
50
40
GW
30
20
10
0
Wind Solar PV Hydro Bioenergy
Source: WindEurope, SolarPower Europe, IEA
35 Wind energy in Europe: Outlook to 2020Mid-term wind energy market outlook
2.7 WIND ENERGY
GENERATION
In 2020, renewables will be able to power approximately & waste (190 TWh) would become the third renewable
35% of the EU’s electricity mix. With 468 TWh in the Cen- electricity source, followed by solar PV (155 TWh).
tral Scenario, wind will overtake hydro (375 TWh) as the
main source for renewable electricity generation. Biomass
FIGURE 25
Evolution of the EU’s electricity mix
100%
90%
80%
Share in the power mix
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
20 0
20 1
02
03
20 4
20 5
06
20 8
09
10
20 1
12
13
20 4
15
16
18
20 9
20
20 7
17
0
1
0
0
1
0
1
0
0
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Wind Solar Hydro Biomass-waste Geothermal and other renewables Others
Source: WindEurope
36 Wind energy in Europe: Outlook to 2020Mid-term wind energy market outlook
The share of wind energy in electricity demand has in- by wind energy. With an expected 30% share of wind
creased significantly in the last 15 years, going from just in 2020, Germany will be the second highest country of
1% in 2000 up to 11% in 2015. And it is expected to con- wind energy penetration rate. Ireland, Portugal and Spain
tinue growing, between 15.7% and 17.4% by the end of would follow with 29%, 27% and 24% of wind energy in
2020. WindEurope’s Central Scenario foresees a share of their electricity demand respectively.
16.5% of wind in the EU’s electricity demand. Wind ener-
gy is thus expected to contribute significantly to the 2020
EU Renewable Energy target. WIND ENERGY WILL
COVER 16.5% OF EU’S
Denmark will remain the country with the highest share
of wind power in its electricity demand. It will be the only ELECTRICITY DEMAND BY
country with more than half of its electricity supplied
2020
FIGURE 26
Evolution of wind energy share in EU’s electricity demand
EU28
Denmark
Germany
Ireland
Portugal
Spain
UK
Estonia
Netherlands
Belgium
Sweden
Romania
Lithuania
Greece
Austria
Poland
France
Croatia
Cyprus
Italy
Bulgaria
Finland
Luxembourg
Malta
Latvia
Hungary
Czech Republic
Slovenia
Slovakia
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Source: WindEurope
37 Wind energy in Europe: Outlook to 20203.
TECHNOLOGY
TRENDS
Wind turbine technology is facing a dramatic shift in both
onshore and offshore markets, with a constant increase of MOST ONSHORE TURBINES
turbine capacity.
ORDERED IN H1 2017 ARE
Towards 4 MW onshore wind platforms
In the first quarter of 2017, above 90% of onshore wind
ABOVE
turbines ordered for delivery in 2018 to 2020 were above
3 MW10 , a trend that is set to continue toward larger and
3 MW
FIGURE 27
Capacity rating of ordered onshore wind turbines in Europe
Average rating per turbine (MW)
100% 3.5
90%
3
80%
70% 2.5
60% 2
MW
50%
40% 1.5
30% 1
20%
0.5
10%
0% 0
1.5 to 2MW 2 to 2.5MW 2.5 to 3MW 3 to 3.5MW 3.5 to 4MW 4.5 to 5MW
Average turbine rating
Source: WindEurope
10. See WindEurope’s quarterly turbines order monitoring (members only)
38 Wind energy in Europe: Outlook to 2020Technology trends
In 2017, 4 MW platforms have appeared in almost every to IEC III (light winds). Within these platforms, there is a
European turbine manufacturers’ book and will be ready very wide range of rotor diameters from 117 metres (for
for installation as of 2018. The product diversity will allow high winds) to 150 metres (light winds).
operations from all wind sites between IEC I (high winds)
FIGURE 28
3.8 MW+ onshore turbines currently available in Europe (size of the bubble represents the rotor diameter)
5.5
G128 - 5.0 G132 - 5.0
5.0
Turbine rating (MW)
E - 141 EP4 V150 - 4.0/4.2
4.5 E - 126 EP4
4.0 V117 - 4.0/4.2
GE 3.8 - 130
3.5 V136 - 4.0/4.2
N131/3900
3.0
0 1 2 3
Main IEC class
Enercon Siemens Gamesa GE Renewable Energy Vestas Nordex
Source: WindEurope
39 Wind energy in Europe: Outlook to 2020Technology trends
Beyond 7 MW offshore wind platforms
In the first quarter of 2017, all offshore wind turbines already started in 2016 and is expected to continue lead-
ordered were in the 7 to 9 range, following a trend that ing towards larger machines.
FIGURE 29
Capacity rating of ordered offshore wind turbines in Europe
100% 9
Average rating per turbine (MW)
90% 8
80% 7
70%
6
60%
5
50%
4
40%
3
30%
20% 2
10% 1
0% 0
0 to 3 MW 3 to 6 MW 6 to 7 MW 7 to 8 MW Average turbine rating
Source: WindEurope
40 Wind energy in Europe: Outlook to 2020Technology trends
FIGURE 30
Recent 7 MW+ offshore turbines currently available in Europe (size of the bubble represents the rotor diameter)
11
V164 - 9.0 MW
10
Turbine rating (MW)
V164 - 8.3MW AD 8 - 180
9
V164 - 8.0MW
8
SWT-8.0 - 154
7
SWT- 7.0 - 154
SE6.2M 152
6
SWT-6.0 - 154
5
S 1
Main IEC class
ADWEN MHI Vestas Offshore Wind Siemens Wind Power Senvion SE
Source: WindEurope
An increasing number of platforms above 7 MW have
been introduced in turbine manufacturers’ book since
2016. The rated capacity of offshore wind turbines has
grown significantly over the past decade, facilitating the
OFFSHORE TURBINES
harnessing of sites with higher wind speeds (IEC 1) and ORDERED SINCE 2016 ARE
ABOVE
capable of operating under extreme weather conditions
(IEC S). Within these platforms, there is a very wide range
of rotor diameters from 128 metres (for high winds) to
7 MW
180 metres (light winds).
Floating offshore is coming of age
Floating offshore wind (FOW) is on the rise. While FOW in the offshore wind supply chain, enabling costs to fall
technology was previously confined to R&D, the technol- significantly in the years to come. 9 projects, with a total
ogy has developed significantly in recent years, and FOW of 338 MW of capacity are planned to be commissioned
is now ready to be deployed into the market. Semisub- by 2021 in France, the UK, Ireland and Portugal. 11
mersible and spar buoy floating substructures are now
deemed appropriate for launch and operations, while the The Hywind Scotland floating wind farm, the first com-
barge and the tension leg platform (TLP) floating substruc- mercial project, is expected to go live before the end of
ture concepts are still under development and will be op- 2017, with the first turbines already towed to site in July
erational in the coming years. The floating offshore wind 2017.
sector will benefit from the latest technologies available
11. A detailed list of projects with capacity and commissioning date is available in WindEurope’s Floating vision statement, June 2017
41 Wind energy in Europe: Outlook to 2020Technology trends
FIGURE 31
The four main technologies for floating offshore wind
Semi-
submersible
Buoyancy
stabilised
“barge”
Tension leg with catenary
platform platform
Spar mooring lines
Source: WindEurope
42 Wind energy in Europe: Outlook to 2020DO NOT MISS OUT:
On the WindEurope Business Intelligence reports that will help you
understand the wind energy landscape
Members only
Members only
43 Wind energy in Europe: Outlook to 2020WindEurope is the voice of the wind industry, actively promoting wind power in Europe and worldwide. It has over 450 members with headquarters in more than 40 countries, including the leading wind turbine manufacturers, component suppliers, research insti- tutes, national wind energy associations, developers, contractors, electricity providers, financial institutions, insurance companies and consultants. This combined strength makes WindEurope the world’s largest and most powerful wind energy network. Rue d’Arlon 80, 1040 Brussels, Belgium T +32 2 213 1811 · F +32 2 213 1890 windeurope.org
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