Wind Turbine Market in India & South East Asia Outlook Update- Q3 2020 August 2020 - Eninrac

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Wind Turbine Market in India &
South East Asia Outlook Update –
Q3 2020
August 2020
The Eighty – 20
                                                                                                                                            of Industry:
                                                                                                                                                       What Matters?

                                                                                       Share of Wind capacity in total renewable generation in Q2 2020 (%)
Leading Edge - India                                                                                                                  1%
                                                                                                                                 1%
                                                                                                                                                               21%

As India pushing for greater industrial self-sufficiency, Government plans to          136 MW                                                                  Wind
                                                                                                                                                               Solar
withdraw customs duty concessions in phased manner for wind-turbine                    Only 136 Mw of Wind
                                                                                                                                                               Bio
components to encourage the use of local equipment                                     capacity added in Q1 2020               77%
                                                                                       reduced by 82% as                                                       Small Hydro

Wind installations levels in India have significantly declined in first half of year   compared to addition in Q2
                                                                                       2019.
2020 due to outbreak of Covid-19 crisis back in China. Consequently, the
outbreak has effected the supply chains that further inflicted the wind energy                                         Source: eninrac consulting, CEA & Channel checks
segment in India. India installed only 136 MW of wind capacity in Q2 2020
which is well below the anticipated addition. Statistically, wind installation in Q2
2020 decline 82% compared to 743 MW in the same period last year, and a 28%                                     Unlike the solar energy sector, 80-85% of
fall from 187 MW in the previous quarter (Q1 2020). Moreover, The government               Major vital          wind-turbine manufacturing takes place in
is likely to withdraw customs duty concessions for wind-turbine components to                 parts             India. However, some vital parts such as gear
encourage the use of local equipment and reduce imports from China and other                imported            box, yaw components, blades for rotor, sub-
countries as India is pushing towards greater industrial self-sufficiency. Although,       from China           parts of such blades are imported, mostly
80-85% of wind-turbine manufacturing takes place in India unlike the solar                                      from China.
energy sector, where about 90% of the modules come from China. However,
some vital parts for setting up wind power projects are imported, mostly from
China. Consequently, The import duty imposed on components varies widely
                                                                                                  The removal of concessions will affect wind turbine manufacturers in
and the removal of concessions will affect manufacturers to different degrees.                    India. Consequently, With input costs going up, wind tariffs may also
                                                                                                  be affected.
The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted clean energy in South East Asia
Round Up Monitor –                                                                                      Region

South East Asia

Revenues from existing wind projects have proven largely resilient
to COVID-19 impacts; however, projects in the pipeline have             Renewable                      Projects in pipeline have          Wind energy project
experienced slowdowns due to supply chain disruption                    energy project                 experienced                        developers that were
                                                                        revenues have                  slowdowns due to                   completing their
Recent policy changes and stepped-up efforts from policymakers          proven to be the               supply chain disruption,           projects during this
have lifted growth rates for non-hydro renewables in the region.        most resilient                 regulatory delays,                 pandemic have incurred
Thailand, an early mover on renewables in the region, saw nearly 5      generation source              workforce issues & are             additional costs and
GW of cumulative wind and solar installations by the end of 2019.       due to first in the            expected to rebound in             delays that could affect
However, The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted clean energy in the         merit order of                 2021                               project milestones
region which was already behind the renewable capacity addition         dispatch
target. Revenues from existing wind projects have proven largely
resilient to COVID-19 impacts; however, projects in the pipeline have
experienced slowdowns due to supply chain disruption, regulatory                                                     Share of SEA Countries in % as on 2019
delays, and workforce issues. Many of these projects will be delayed       Total Installed Capacity of
                                                                                                                  10.2%          6.4%                 Indonesia
                                                                           Wind Power (GW) in South
but will come online and are expected to rebound in 2021.                  East Asia as on Dec 2019
                                                                                                                                                      Philippines
Moreover, energy project developers that were completing their                                                                       18.5%

                                                                                2.31
projects during this pandemic may have incurred additional costs                                                                                      Thailand
and delays that could affect their anticipated returns or project                                                          64.9%
                                                                                                                                                      Veitnam
milestones.
                                                                        Source: NREL, eninrac consulting, Channel Checks
Numbers to Focus                                                     Key Features                                           Deployment
Upon – Q2 2020                                                       Expected                                               Trends - Projects

    Wind Power Installations in Second                                                                                      01 Another Deadline Extension for
    Quarter of CY 2020 Shrink by 82% YoY                                                                                    SECI’s 5 GW Tender
                                                                                                                             The Solar Energy Corporation of India (SECI)
                                                                     Siemens Gamesa leads the way in                         has extended the bid submission deadline
    India installed 136 MW of wind power projects                    India with the launch of its next                       for its tender to procure 5 GW of renewable
    in the second quarter (Q2 2020) of the                           generation wind turbine                                 power on a round-the-clock (RTC) basis
    calendar year. This was a whopping 82%                                                                                   complemented with thermal power projects.
    decline in installations compared to 743 MW in
    the same period last year, and a 28% fall from                   The company continues to shape the
    187 MW in the previous quarter (Q1 2020).                        market with this new generation wind                    02 Sembcorp completes
                                                                     turbine in the 3MW segment, which is                    800MW of SECI wind power
                                                                     specifically designed for the Indian winds.             projects
    Gujarat added 97% of the total wind                              The new SG 3.4-145 can operate at up to
                                                                     3.6 MW with flexible rating strategy and                Sembcorp Energy India Limited (SEIL),
    installation in Q2 2020 in India                                                                                         announced the completion of its 800MW
                                                                     delivers 48% more Annual Energy
                                                                     Production (AEP).                                       wind power projects awarded by the Solar
                                                                                                                             Energy Corporation of India (SECI).
    Of the 136 MW of wind                             Wind capacity installed in Q2 2020 in India
    power capacity added
                                                                                                                            03 Contracts awarded to support
    during the quarter, Gujarat        Gujarat
    installed 132 MW, while             97%                                              4                                  projects in Vietnam’s emerging
    Karnataka installed about 4                                                                           Western Region    offshore wind sector
    MW. These were the only
    two states that added wind                                                                            Southern Region   AFRY has been awarded an owner's
    capacity in the country                                                             132                                 engineering services assignment for Tra Vinh
                                       Rest of
    during this period.                 India
                                                                                                                            Offshore Wind Farm, a 48 MW wind farm
                                         3%                                                                                 project located in Tra Vinh Province,
                                                                                              Numbers in MW
                                                                                                                            Vietnam. AFRY will provide a full scope of
                                                                                                                            owner's engineering services for the
                                  Source: MNRE, eninrac consulting
                                                                                                                            implementation phase
QUARTERLY MARKET
    OBSERVATORY                                                                                                                     Quarterly Update
                                                                                Wind power installed capacity is
                                                                                expected to bounce back in Q3 2020
                                                                                                                                    – Q3 CY 2020
                                                                    1000
                                                                     800
                                                                                                                                    ▪ The capacity additions rate at the

                                                    Capacity (mw)
                                                                     600                                                              beginning of 2020 was looking optimistic
                                                                     400                                                              with the industry gearing up to add more
                                                                                                                                      capacities in FY 2020/21 but with
                                                                     200                                                              COVID19 impacting the entire world.
                                                                       0                                                              Athough, the recovery to business as
                                                                            Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020           usual is expected in Q3 2020.
                                                                    Source: CEA, eninrac consulting

                   Key Investments –                                                             Key Trends –                                          Key Signpost –
                   Q3 2020                                                                       Wind Turbine Market in                                Wind Turbine Market Q3
                                                                                                 India Q3 2020                                         2020

      ▪ Renewable energy developer Greenko and analytics                            ▪ India’s Ministry of New and Renewable Energy has          •   India is looking at plans to end duty concessions
        and engineering firm ONYX Insight announced they                              issued guidelines for round-the-clock supply of               for turbine component imports in a bid to
        have signed an agreement to modernise 500 wind                                electricity by bundling solar and thermal power.              further ease reliance on China. The Indian
        turbines.                                                                     Under the new guidelines, power project developers            government could start a phased withdrawal of
                                                                                      can sign power purchase agreements with the                   the concessions from 2021 and has started
                                                                                      discoms for 24×7 supply containing at least 51%               talks with wind OEMs over the implications of
      ▪ Global wind turbine major Siemens Gamesa
                                                                                      renewable power                                               the move. The import duty imposed on
        Renewable Energy will start making the 3.4 MW
                                                                                                                                                    components varies widely and the removal of
        wind turbine at its Indian plant in Tamil Nadu. The                                                                                         concessions will affect manufacturers to
        new machine will be the highest capacity wind                               ▪ India's wind installation for 2020 likely to fall
                                                                                                                                                    different degrees. Moreover, With input costs
        turbine in India will be manufactured at its Indian                           drastically. It is expected wind energy capacity India        going up, tariffs may also be affected. The
        plant in Tamil Nadu                                                           will add in 2020 to 1.95GW from an earlier forecast           intent is to increase the current domestic
                                                                                      of 2.56GW due to the nation wide lockdown amidst              manufacturing to 95%.
                                                                                      the Covid-19 crisis
QUARTERLY MARKET
    OBSERVATORY
                                                                                                                   Wind Turbine Market in India &
                              Contents & Coverage –                                                                South East Asia Outlook Update –
                                                                                                                   Q3 2020
                              Q3 2020

                    01 This Quarter                                 02 Key Features                                03 Leading Edge

                    The section shall showcases the major           Key features shall cover the major             The current affairs leading business impacts
                    highlights for wind turbine segment in          strengths and development map                  on Wind turbine market with insightful data
                    India and South East Asia including             that the industry has shown over               analytics & our exclusive “Knowledge Grid”
                    investments, project developments,              the quarter                                    feeds covered in the section. Our analyst's
                    policy & regulatory interface, M&A etc.                                                        viewpoints with sharp edged objectives shall
                                                                                                                   be central to the section

                                                                    05 The Eighty - 20 of Industry –
                   04 Numbers to Learn                                                                             06 Key Signposts
                                                                    What Matters?

                   All wind power capacity additions with a split   In this section the major factors which are    The business factors which shall govern the
                   on ownership wise, & state wise break up shall   acting as the growth catalysts / barriers in   course of coming quarters of business and the
                   be included. Moreover, the numbers for deals     the Wind turbine segment are                   industry response to the changes shall be the
                   secured by wind turbine manufacturers in India   highlighted inclusive of policies,             focus area of this segment
                   as well as South East Asian countries            regulations etc.

                                                                    08 Technology &                                09 Industry Activities &
                   07 Deployment Trends                             Price Trends                                   Corporate Strategies

                   The pace of deployment of projects at wind       This section shall cover all the latest        All the industry order track & merger’s and
                   turbine manufacturers levels covering issues     technology implementation and trends,          acquisition activities shall be tracked. Fresh
                   like investments, tenders and capacity           price benchmarks of wind turbines in           investments in wind turbine sector as per
                   additions shall form part of this section        India and South Asia                           players profiles shall also be tracked in this
                                                                                                                   section
QUARTERLY MARKET
    OBSERVATORY
                                                                                                     Wind Turbine Market in India &
                               Must                                                                  South East Asia Outlook Update –
                                                                                                     Q3 2020
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