IMPROVING ENERGY RESILIENCE DURING POWER SHORTAGES - Presentation to the Cape Chamber
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IMPROVING ENERGY RESILIENCE
DURING POWER SHORTAGES
Presentation to the Cape Chamber
Hildegarde Fast 15 April 2019
Current Energy Landscape
Factors influencing load shedding
At the beginning of March 2019, the Western Cape Government conducted an
assessment of the likelihood of load shedding for the remainder of 2019 and
beyond.
The following factors will influence whether load shedding takes place:
• Existing plant performance: how well power plants are performing, ie how many
unplanned outages take place
• Diesel: insufficient supply and inadequate logistics support to supply all of
Eskom’s needs
• Eskom finances: significant funding is required to do adequate maintenance of
existing plants & purchase diesel to make up the difference
• Future generation capacity: sufficient new generation needs to be brought onto
the grid as old power plants are decommissioned
• Coal: insufficient supply of coal at some power stations
• Demand growth: if the economy grows significantly, there may be higher
demand for electricity
© Western Cape Government 2012 | 3
Load shedding prognosis
Short-term Power Supply Prognosis:
• The Province is planning for Stages 1-2 of load shedding this winter at
peak times (5-9pm), and Stages 3-4 if there are unplanned outages.
There is a lower risk for summer 2019/20 (would take place all day).
Medium- to Long-term Power Supply Prognosis:
• Eskom has 18-24 month maintenance plan to ensure that existing plants
produce the power that they were designed for
– However, 8000MW of old coal-fired plants will be retired by 2025
– The outlook from 2020 onward depends on new capacity coming on
line in terms of the new IRP 2019, existing capacity being restored, and
a smooth transition for Eskom in terms of finances and restructuring.
o If these factors are not addressed, load shedding may continue
beyond 2019.
© Western Cape Government 2012 |
Potential impact of load shedding on the WC economy
Multiple days of load shedding in a month could cost the economy R20bn to R80bn
per month nationally – this is R3bn to12bn per month in the Western Cape
The “uncounted cost” of load shedding is that potential investors may choose not to
invest here or may close down
The impact on consumers varies:
• Small businesses and lower income households are less able to invest in various
solutions (solar PV, batteries, generators) to minimise load shedding impact
• Businesses that require constant electricity for business continuity experience
significant productivity and financial losses, e.g. plastic mould manufacturers
© Western Cape Government 2012 | 5
International Energy Trends
How are utilities around the world responding
to energy trends?
Global energy systems are in transition:
• With the pace of climate change, the world is moving away from fossil-
based energy towards cleaner and more renewable forms of energy
• Decentralised forms of energy provision are becoming alternatives to the
traditional centralised energy systems
• Increasing investment in smart energy technologies – this is allowing for
greater grid efficiency and security through load management
• Energy storage (specifically lithium-ion batteries) has the potential to
change the nature of the energy sector
The global standard since the 1980s has been to move away from vertically
integrated energy utilities to unbundled systems which would allow more
competitive and efficient operations
© Western Cape Government 2012 | 7
What have we been doing?
Energy Security Game Changer
Enough power for growth
in the Western Cape that
is sustainable and low
carbon Enhanced uptake of
Solar PV
Diversifying our energy mix
through alternative low
carbon supply & energy
Roll out of Independent efficiency measures
Power Producers (IPPs) Reduced energy
consumption in both
public and private
buildings
Importation of
Liquefied Natural Gas The development of a grid management
(LNG) system that facilitates wheeling and
manages peak demand
Aligned with the NDP and national priorities
© Western Cape Government 2012 |
Uptake of Small Scale Embedded Generation (SSEG*)
On Track To Reach 2020 Target Of 135MW
*Small -scale Embedded Generation: private renewable energy systems, often solar PV, that are less than 1 MW
© Western Cape Government 2012 | 10Uptake of Small Scale Embedded Generation (SSEG*)
In 2015, there were 2 municipalities that allowed SSEG.
There are now 22 allowing SSEG and 18 with NERSA-approved feed-in tariffs.
© Western Cape Government 2012 | 11Energy Efficiency in Government Buildings
The Western Cape Government is leading by example
Electricity meters installed
631 since 2016
Total electricity consumption
145
down 13% from 2015. The
kWh/
m²/yr current consumption is 38%
below industry benchmark
PV installations completed
13 with R42.6 million invested &
an expected saving of 10%/yr
© Western Cape Government 2012 | 12Driving the Development of a Smart Grid
Smart Meters:
• Smart Meter Standard published in 2016 - this
allows two-way communication, remote
control, and more control for customers.
Energy Trading:
• Plans under way to pilot private-to-private
energy trading and wheeling in Witzenberg
• Wheeling framework under development in
City of Cape Town, Stellenbosch and
Drakenstein. Each of these municipalities have
a wheeling tariff in place.
© Western Cape Government 2012 |
PG MTEC 2 EngagementWhat energy resilience initiatives do we wish to implement?
Provincial and municipal initiatives
• Ensure the enabling environment is in place for grid-tied solar PV (22
municipalities allow, 18 have Nersa approved feed-in tariffs)
– Engage with businesses to demonstrate that there is a clear business
case for solar PV
• Introduce a financing model to support investment in solar PV, namely
the Property Assessed Clean Energy (PACE) model
• Encourage Municipalities to install their own electricity generation
facilities
• Encourage Municipalities to prepare for the purchase of power from
Independent Power Producers, once this is supported nationally
• Assist Municipalities to implement wheeling frameworks and tariffs
© Western Cape Government 2012 |What can businesses do?
What can you do?
The Energy Security Game Changer has developed a ‘How to’ document with
practical tips to protect your home & small business in case of load shedding.
To remain economically viable during load shedding:
• Assess the impact that predicted load shedding could have and what
options are financially viable
– For many businesses, the cost of investing in mitigation measures can be
less than costs incurred when there is a loss of power.
To develop energy resilience for the medium- to long- term:
• Businesses should investigate the opportunities for installing solar PV, given
that the world is moving away from fossil fuels and the carbon tax is coming.
• Smart technologies are becoming more cost effective. Energy efficiency and
smart metering can assist in reducing electricity consumption and managing
demand.
• Battery storage is increasingly becoming an attractive option (within 3-5yrs).
The possibilities of including some storage with solar PV systems should be
investigated. But going off the grid is not advisable.
© Western Cape Government 2012 | Presentation to AHi Western Cape 17Portion 36 – olive farm
Context: 4ha of 2000 olive trees (20 000kg/year) and also mill olives for surrounding
farmers (10 000 – 30 000 kg/year)
1. Electrical Requirements
• Home: 0.5kW average
• Office: 1kW average
• Business: 1kw average (air-con for oil storage) increase to 6kW when olive mill
us running (400hrs)
2. Steps taken:
• Lights: 220V UPS – R5000
• Security: 12V UPS – R4000
• Computers: 2.5kW petrol generator – R10 000
• Olive Mill: 5kW diesel generator – R16 000
3. Effectiveness of mitigation measures
• During harvest, impact of load shedding is severe
– After implementation, impact is moderate
© Western Cape Government 2012 | Presentation to AHi Western Cape 18THE WEST COAST
LNG PROPOSITION
A VALUE PROPOSITION
© Western Cape Government 2012 | 19THE WESTERN CAPE
PROMOTING NATURAL GAS
IMPORTATION
The Western Cape Government is actively
promoting the importation of natural gas into the
West Coast of the Western Cape. This is because:
• Natural gas will help achieve our goal of a low-
carbon, energy-secure future.
• Gas-to-power works well with solar and wind
energy, while also providing baseload.
• Industries will be able to switch from dirtier
fuels (coal and heavy fuel oils) to natural gas,
thus reducing the Western Cape’s carbon
footprint.
© Western Cape Government 2012 | 20MAP OF THE WEST COAST
Vredenburg Piketberg
R27 N7
Saldanha SEZ Langebaan
Morreessburg
R27
Soetwater N7
Yzerfontein
Darling
R27
Malmesbury
Atlantis SEZ
Brackenfell Atlantis Industrial
Killarney Gardens
Parow Industrial Stickland
Montague Gardens Epping Kraaifontein
Elsies River N7
Ndabeni Triangle Farm Industrial
Paarden Eiland Sack’s Circle Industrial
Kuils River
Blackheath
Airport Industrial
R27
Bloubergstrand
Milnerton
© Western Cape Government 2012 | 21THE WESTERN CAPE
PROMOTING NATURAL GAS
IMPORTATION
• If LNG is introduced in the Western Cape,
provincial greenhouse gas emissions could be
reduced by as much as 9% (3.8 million tons of
CO2 emissions annually) (Deloitte, 2015).
• This will contribute to South Africa’s 9%
Intended Nationally Determined LESS CO2
EMISSIONS
Contributions arising from the Paris
agreement.
• Investment in LNG infrastructure could amount
to R21.76 billion, with the potential to create
67,400 jobs (Deloitte, 2015).
© Western Cape Government 2012 | 22WEST COAST
OPPORTUNITY #1
ANKERLIG
Eskom operates a diesel-powered 1350 MW OCGT peaking
power plant at Ankerlig, Atlantis.
• Conversion of 9 burner nozzles to dual-fuel has been
completed.
• The units can be converted to more efficient CCGT gas-
fired power, which could result in 2070 MW of power.
• Capital investment estimated at R14.1 billion
(Deloitte, 2015).
• Ankerlig could consume 66.5 GJ per annum – 75% of the
West Coast market.
75%
© Western Cape Government 2012 | 23WEST COAST
OPPORTUNITY #2
INDUSTRIAL OFFTAKE
• Regional uptake would be about 21.6 million GJ per annum.
• LNG would substitute coal and diesel, resulting in cleaner emissions.
• A West Coast Industrial Plan demonstrated the potential uptake for LNG in the region.
© Western Cape Government 2012 | 24LNG
WEST COAST OPPORTUNITY #3
THE GAS IPP PROCESS
• 3000 MW of gas-fired power is to be procured through the Department of Energy’s IPP Office.
• Investors have a choice of 3 potential ports: Richards Bay, Coega, and Saldanha Bay.
• The gas-to-power plant could be anywhere between Saldanha Bay and Atlantis.
• One possibility is a GTP plant on a City-owned site next to Ankerlig. Environmental authorisation
has been received.
• A common approach to LNG importation infrastructure is being considered, whereby all three ports
could receive natural gas, but with different port infrastructure requirements .
© Western Cape Government 2012 | 252017
WEST COAST
OPPORTUNITY #4
PRIVATE GTP PLANT(S) IN
SALDANHA BAY
• A number of existing companies in the Saldanha Bay area have significant power needs, and there are
some potential investors who will also require power
• One possibility is for one or more of them to construct gas-to-power plants for their own use –
these would not form part of the Gas IPP process
© Western Cape Government 2012 | 26ENERGY DEMAND BY FUEL TYPE
ENERGY DEMAND (PJ)
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
-
2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 2039
Electricity Coal LPG
© Western Cape Government 2012 | 27WEST COAST OPPORTUNITY #3:
INDUSTRIAL OFFTAKE
ENERGY DEMAND (PJ) IF NG SUPPLED IN 2023
Electricity Coal LPG NG (without power stations)
© Western Cape Government 2012 | 28THE WESTERN CAPE
COMMITTED GOVERNMENT SUPPORT
Completed Studies:
• Environmental Screening and Safety Study for the LNG terminal at Saldanha
• Marine environmental conditions for LNG shipment for Saldanha and for the West Coast
• The importation of natural gas into the Western Cape
• Socio-economic impact of importing LNG into the West Coast
• LNG Importation: Evaluating the Risks
Studies being finalised (will be uploaded onto website in May):
• USTDA study (R11m) that updates the gas demand and infrastructure costs, proposes different contractual
models, and assesses the contractual risks and regulatory requirements
• Study on alternative transport fuels in the Western Cape.
© Western Cape Government 2012 | 2970%
60%
THE WESTERN CAPE
A GREEN ECONOMY HUB
• 60% of projects in the Renewable Energy IPP Programme are being developed in Cape Town.
• 70% of national component manufacturers are based in Cape Town.
• Leading companies have invested in manufacturing capacity.
• Major local professional services firms and financiers have offered support.
© Western Cape Government 2012 | 30Contact Us
Dr Hildegarde Fast
Lead: Energy Security Game Changer
Tel: 082 441 2149 Fax:
Hildegarde.Fast@westerncape.gov.za
www.westerncape.gov.za
Website: www.switchandsave.co.zaYou can also read
