GLOBAL INDUSTRY OUTLOOK REPORT - Gulfood

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GLOBAL INDUSTRY OUTLOOK REPORT - Gulfood
GLOBAL
INDUSTRY
OUTLOOK
  REPORT
     2018
GLOBAL INDUSTRY OUTLOOK REPORT - Gulfood
Contents                                    01

 INTRODUCTION                               4

 List of Abbreviations                      4
 Indicators                                 5
 Geographical Coverage                      7

 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY                          11

 Industry Growth                            12
 Foodservice                                15
 Market Drivers and Trends                  16
 Market Challenges and Opportunities        18

 GLOBAL SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC OUTLOOK         22

 Global Demographics Overview               22
 Urbanisation vs Population Growth          23
 Global Economic Outlook Overview           25
 Income and Consumer Expenditure            26

 GLOBAL FOOD AND BEVERAGES SECTOR           30

 Global Total F&B Industry Overview         30
 Global F&B Distribution Landscape          31
 Global F&B Industry Overview by Category   34
 Global F&B Trends and Drivers              35
 Global Consumer Foodservice Footprint      40

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GLOBAL INDUSTRY OUTLOOK REPORT - Gulfood
02                                                                                                                              03

 COMPOSITION OF F&B INDUSTRIES                         44         MEAT & POULTRY                                                 79

                                                                  Meat & Poultry Industry – At a Glance                         79
      BEVERAGES                                        58
                                                                  From Farmers to Consumers                                     79
                                                                  Market Size and Potential                                     81
     Beverages Industry – At a Glance                  44         Market Trends and Drivers                                     82
     From Farmers to Consumers                         45         Distribution Landscape                                        84
     Market Size and Potential                         49         Challenges and Opportunities                                  85
     Market Trends and Drivers                         51         Case Study: Beyond Meat                                       87
     Distribution Landscape                            53
     Challenges and Opportunities                      55
     Case Study: Uni-President                         57         EDIBLE OILS                                                   58

                                                                  Edible Oils Industry - At a Glance                            58
      DAIRY                                            58
                                                                  From Farmers to Consumers                                     59
                                                                  Market Size and Potential                                     60
     Dairy Industry – At a Glance                      58         Market Trends and Drivers                                     62
     From Farmers to Consumers                         59         Distribution Landscape                                        63
     Market Size and Potential                         60         Challenges and Opportunities                                  64
     Market Trends and Drivers                         62         Case Study: Wilmar International and The Ethics of Palm Oil   65
     Distribution Landscape                            63
     Challenges and Opportunities                      64
     Case Study: Chobani Yoghurt                       65         POWER BRANDS                                                  80

      PULSES, GRAINS & CEREALS                         66

                                                            APPENDICES                                                          100
     Pulses, Grains & Cereals Industry - At a Glance   66
     From Farmers to Consumers                         66
                                                            Category Definitions                                                100
     Market Size and Potential                         70
                                                            Sources                                                             115
     Market Trends and Drivers                         72
     Distribution Landscape                            75
     Challenges and Opportunities                      76
                                                            SOURCES                                                             100
     Case Study: Barilla Alimentare                    78

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GLOBAL INDUSTRY OUTLOOK REPORT - Gulfood
Introduction
Dubai World Trade Centre (DWTC) “The Company” have commissioned Euromonitor International, an independent
provider of strategic market research, to prepare a market study on the global food and beverage industries.

Euromonitor International

                                                                                                                              INTRODUCTION
Euromonitor International is an independent provider of strategic market research. We create data and analysis on
thousands of products and services around the world. As independent market researchers, we provide unbiased
historic trends and forecasts for every region, country, category, channel and consumer. Euromonitor’s research
includes qualitative and quantitative-based trade surveying and analysis to support market, competitor and customer
intelligence. Euromonitor was established in 1972 in London and has clients ranging from leading manufacturers and
investment banks to governments and universities.

                                                              Research Methodology

                                                              The research methodology of Passport, the key source
                                                              used for this Report, is based on a core set of research
                                                              techniques that include desk research (national
                                                              statistics, national and international trade press,
                                                              national and international trade associations, industry
                                                              study groups and other semi-official sources, company
                                                              financials and annual reports, broker reports an online
                                                              databases), store audits and trade survey with key
                                                              stakeholders across the value chain. Forecast data
                                                              provided represents many of the essential conclusions
                                                              reached about the current state of the market, how it
                                                              works and how it behaves under different macro and
                                                              micro conditions.

                                                              In addition to Passport, information and prospects set
                                                              out in this report have also been sourced from desk
                                                              research (such as company websites, trade press) and
                                                              trade opinion surveys conducted by Euromonitor with
                                                              a sample (19 interviews) of importers/distributors, local
                                                              manufacturers, retailers and trade associations within
                                                              key industries (soft drinks, hot drinks, dairy, meat and
                                                              poultry, edible oils and cereals, pulses and grains).
                                                              Trade interviews with the key stakeholders were
                                                              conducted between December 2017 and January 2018.

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GLOBAL INDUSTRY OUTLOOK REPORT - Gulfood
List of Abbreviations                                                    Indicators
Abbreviation   Definition                                                Indicators                     2017 Edition Definition
                                                                         Market Sizing
AMS            North and South America
                                                                                                        Retail Value RSP: Measured in US Dollars with Historic Fixed
AOA            Asia, Oceania and Sub-Saharan Africa
                                                                                                        2016 Exchange Rates, Forecast Fixed 2016 Exchange Rates

                                                                                                                                                                                          INTRODUCTION
APAC           Asia Pacific
B2B            Business to Business
B2C            Business to Consumer                                      GDP                            Gross domestic product is the sum of gross value added by all resident
Bn             Billion                                                                                  producers in the economy plus any product taxes and minus any subsidies
BPA            Bisphenol A                                                                              not included in the value of the products. It is calculated without making
BSR            Business for Social Responsibility                                                       deductions for depreciation of fabricated assets or for depletion and
BULOG          Indonesia Logistics Bureau                                                               degradation of natural resources. Measures in US Dollars with Historic
                                                                                                        Fixed 2016 Exchange Rates, Forecast Fixed 2016 Exchange Rates
CAGR           Compound Annual Growth Rate
CS             Consumer Spending
CSR            Corporate Social Responsibility
                                                                         Middle Class households        The number of households with between 75.0% and 125% of median income.
DNA            Deoxyribonucleic acid
EC             European Commission
EMENA          Europe, Middle East and North Africa                      Consumer Expenditure           Measured in US Dollars with Historic Fixed 2016 Exchange
EMI            Euromonitor International                                                                Rates, Forecast Fixed 2016 Exchange Rates
EU             European Union                                                                           Consumer expenditure comprises personal expenditure on goods -
F&B            Food and Beverage                                                                        durable, semi-durable and non-durable - and on services in the domestic
FAO            Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations                                  market, including the imputed rent of owner-occupied dwellings, the
FDA            US Food and Drugs Administration                                                         administrative costs of general insurance and of life assurance and
GCC            Gulf Cooperation Council                                                                 superannuation schemes. Consumption expenditure in the domestic
                                                                                                        market is equal to consumer expenditure by resident households plus
GDP            Gross Domestic Product
                                                                                                        direct purchases in the domestic market by non-resident households
GMO            Genetically Modified organism
                                                                                                        and minus direct purchases abroad by resident households.
Horeca         Hotel, restaurant and café
IPSO           Indonesia Palm Oil Certification
IRRI           International Rice Research Institute                     Consumer Expenditure on Food   Measured in US Dollars with Historic Fixed 2016 Exchange
ISCC           International Sustainability and Carbon Certification     and Non-Alcoholic Beverages    Rates, Forecast Fixed 2016 Exchange Rates
Kg             Kilogram
MENA           Middle East and North Africa region
Mn             Million                                                                                  Food products and non-alcoholic beverages
                                                                                                        purchased for consumption at home.
MnT            Million Tonnes
MSG            Monosodium Glutamate
NFC            Not From Concentrate                                                                     Excludes: food products and non-alcoholic beverages sold for immediate
PDO            Protected Designation of Origin                                                          consumption away from the home by hotels, restaurants, cafés, bars, kiosks,
PET            Polyethylene terephthalate                                                               street vendors, automatic vending machines, etc. (consumer expenditure on
PGI            Protected Geographical Indication                                                        catering services); cooked dishes prepared by restaurants for consumption
R&D            Research and Development                                                                 off their premises (consumer expenditure on catering services); cooked
               Radio Frequency Identification                                                           dishes prepared by catering contractors whether collected by the
RFID
                                                                                                        customer or delivered to the customer’s home (consumer expenditure on
RSPO           Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil
                                                                                                        catering services); and products sold specifically as pet foods (consumer
RTD            Ready To Drink
                                                                                                        expenditure on other recreational items and equipment, gardens and pets).
SRP            Sustainable Rice Platform
TFA            Tropical Forest Alliance
Tn             Trillion
UAE            United Arab Emirates
UK             United Kingdom
US             United States
USD            United States Dollar

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GLOBAL INDUSTRY OUTLOOK REPORT - Gulfood
Geographical Coverage

                                                                                                                   INTRODUCTION
                                                     Europe
                                  North
                                 America
                                                                                 Asia Pacific

                                                                   Middle East
                                                                   and Africa

                                                              Sub-Saharan
                                                                 Africa

                                            Latin
                                           America
                                                                                                Australasia

  Asia Pacific

  Australasia

  Europe

  Latin America

  Middle East and North Africa

  North America

  Sub-Saharan Africa

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GLOBAL INDUSTRY OUTLOOK REPORT - Gulfood
Sub-Saharan
           Asia Pacific               Europe              Australasia             Latin America
                                                                                                               Africa

Afghanistan               Albania              Australia                 Anguilla                 Angola
American Samoa            Andorra              New Zealand               Antigua                  Benin
Armenia                   Austria                                        Argentina                Botswana
Azerbaijan                Belarus                                        Aruba                    Burkina Faso

                                                                                                                                    INTRODUCTION
Bangladesh                Belgium                                        Bahamas                  Burundi
Bhutan                    Bosnia-Herzegovina                             Barbados                 Cameroon
Brunei                    Bulgaria
                                                       North America     Belize                   Cape Verde
Cambodia                  Croatia                                        Bermuda                  Central African Republic
China                     Cyprus                                         Bolivia                  Chad
Fiji                      Czech Republic       Canada                    Brazil                   Comoros
French Polynesia          Denmark              USA                       British Virgin Islands   Congo, Democratic Republic
Guam                      Estonia                                        Cayman Islands           Congo-Brazzaville
Hong Kong, China          Finland                                        Chile                    Côte d’Ivoire
India                     France                                         Colombia                 Equatorial Guinea
Indonesia                 Georgia
                                                        Middle East      Costa Rica               Eritrea
Japan                     Germany                     and North Africa   Cuba                     Ethiopia
Kazakhstan                Gibraltar                                      Curacao                  Gabon
Kiribati                  Greece               Algeria                   Dominica                 Gambia
Kyrgyzstan                Hungary              Bahrain                   Dominican Republic       Ghana
Laos                      Iceland              Djibouti                  Ecuador                  Guinea
Macau                     Ireland              Egypt                     El Salvador              Guinea-Bissau
Malaysia                  Italy                Iraq                      French Guiana            Kenya
Maldives                  Kosovo               Jordan                    Grenada                  Lesotho
Mongolia                  Latvia               Kuwait                    Guadeloupe               Liberia
Myanmar                   Liechtenstein        Lebanon                   Guatemala                Madagascar
Nauru                     Lithuania            Libya                     Guyana                   Malawi
Nepal                     Luxembourg           Mauritania                Haiti                    Mali
New Caledonia             Macedonia            Morocco                   Honduras                 Mauritius
North Korea               Malta                Oman                      Jamaica                  Mozambique
Pakistan                  Moldova              Saudi Arabia              Martinique               Namibia
Papua New Guinea          Monaco               Sudan                     Mexico                   Niger
Philippines               Montenegro           Syria                     Nicaragua                Nigeria
Samoa                     Netherlands          Tunisia                   Panama                   Réunion
Singapore                 Norway               Turkey                    Paraguay                 Rwanda
Solomon Islands           Poland               United Arab Emirates      Peru                     Sao Tomé e Príncipe
South Korea               Portugal             Yemen                     Puerto Rico              Senegal
Sri Lanka                 Romania                                        Sint Maarten             Seychelles
Taiwan                    Russia                                         St Kitts                 Sierra Leone
Tajikistan                Serbia                                         St Lucia                 Somalia
Thailand                  Slovakia                                       St Vincent and the       South Africa
Tonga                     Slovenia                                       Grenadines               South Sudan
Turkmenistan              Spain                                          Suriname                 Swaziland
Tuvalu                    Sweden                                         Trinidad and Tobago      Tanzania
Uzbekistan                Switzerland                                    Uruguay                  Togo
Vanuatu                   Ukraine                                        US Virgin Islands        Uganda
Vietnam                   United Kingdom                                 Venezuela                Zambia
                                                                                                  Zimbabwe

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GLOBAL INDUSTRY OUTLOOK REPORT - Gulfood
A billion extra consumers with growing disposable incomes across all regions
            With a rapidly growing and highly urbanised population, demand across the globe for processed and packaged
            food and beverages (F&B) is set to increase. Growth in GDP at 3.5% outstrips population growth of 1% (CAGR
            2017-30) but overall consumer spending on F&B is set to drop from 8.5% of GDP to 8.0% by 2030 as products
            become relatively more affordable and make up a smaller proportion of overall consumer spending.

                                                                                                                                          EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
            Population growth underlies much of Food & Beverage global growth

            Young, under 30 years olds, located in urban areas           are in the lower income brackets and are trading
            of either Sub-Saharan Africa, Asia Pacific or Latin          up to packaged food for the first time unlike their
            America is an apt description of the key consumer            counterparts in the more mature markets of Europe,
            of the future. This group is the fastest growing and         North America and Australasia. Populations in these
            largest contributor to value sales growth with their         mature markets are slow growing and are getting older,
            increasing purchasing power and love of westernised,         with the key consumer of the future most likely to be
            convenient and easy-to-prepare food and beverages.           over 50 years, in a small one-, two- or three-person,
            Instant noodles, pasta, dairy products, snacks and           city-based household. Some are affluent, others will
            RTD drinks in single-serve packaging are winners             be living on meagre state pensions but all are looking
            with this group but they are equally conscious of            for health benefits for their bones, mobility, digestive
            their health, nutrition and the long-term dietary            health and energy levels. Their working lives continue
            effects of the products they are consuming.                  longer and they like to treat themselves well, whether it
                                                                         is with organic, locally produced, high-quality fresh or
            Young parents with children want to provide their
                                                                         processed products or in the form of indulgent treats.
            offspring with beneficial nourishment and are careful
            what they feed their children. Many, in these regions,

                         World Population                                                   World GDP

Executive
                CAGR 1.0%                                                    CAGR 3.5%
                  2030
                                                    8.5bn                      2030
                                                                                                                  122tn
                  2017
                                                    7.5bn                      2017
                                                                                                                   78tn

Summary
                                                                                                                 Executive Summary   15
GLOBAL INDUSTRY OUTLOOK REPORT - Gulfood
Industry Growth

Asia Pacific provides scale, but the strongest growth                                                                                  Middle East & North Africa
comes fromMiddle East and Africa                                                                                                                                                                Asia Pacific with its large, growing population
                                                                                                                                                                                                and expanding middle class, is a region with

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
With high birth rates, rapidly expanding cities and growing employment, the combined Middle East and Africa regions
offer the highest level of potential growth. With greater distribution of wealth, growing economic and political stability
                                                                                                                                                                                   4.2%         strong potential in all F&B categories. Packaged
                                                                                                                                                                                                food sales are growing as modern retail
                                                                                                                                                                                                expands supported by a developing cold chain
and rapidly developing infrastructure, consumers have greater access to a wider range of foods and beverages. Despite
lower growth rates, the sheer size of the population and disposable income growth across Asia Pacific also offers an                                                               4.6%         infrastructure for fresh, chilled and processed
                                                                                                                                                                                                foods. Internet retailing and strong national
enticing growth market in all categories.
                                                                                                                                                                                   5.4%         logistics allow consumers to purchase products
                                                                                                                                                                                                not easily accessible in local retailers at little
                                                                                                                                                                                                or no extra charge. Health concerns around
Exhibit 1 Industry growth per region by category, CAGR 2016-2021
                                                                                                                                                                                   4.2%         obesity, children’s health and life-long health are
                                                                                                                                                                                                shaping the popularity of F&B products with
                                                                                                                                                                                                strong and growing interest in naturally health
                                                                                                                                                                                   6. 1 %       and traditionally recognised ingredients.
                                                                                                                                                                                                Cold chain services are also changing consumer
                                                                                                                                                                                                choices in the Middle East and Africa regions as
                                                                                                                                                                                                frozen processed halal meat and poultry, cold
  Asia Pacific                                                                    Australasia                                          North America                                            drinks and flavoured milks increase in popularity.
                                                                                                                                                                                                Foodservice is also growing with the entry of
                                                                                                                                                                                                many international chains also influencing in-home

                                              2.8%                                                                          1 . 3%                                                 1 . 5%       consumption of more westernised foods and
                                                                                                                                                                                                beverages. Demand for bottled water, in particular,
                                                                                                                                                                                                is expanding in major cities across these regions
                                              4.2%                                                                          1 . 1%                                                 1 . 7%       as sanitary and potable water systems fail to deal
                                                                                                                                                                                                with the stress and demands of rapid urbanisation.

                                              1 . 3%                                                                        0.5%                                                   1 . 5%       Young consumers, particularly in Sub-Saharan
                                                                                                                                                                                                Africa, have adopted mobile- and internet-based
                                                                                                                                                                                                services as the key channel of communication with
                                              3.0%                                                                          0.8%                                                   0.7%         and about brands as well as delivery services.
                                                                                                                                                                                                In Latin America, the traditional grocery retailer
                                              4.8%                                                                          2.4%                                                   0.7%         still plays a significant role outside Brazil and
                                                                                                                                                                                                Chile despite the rapid adoption of mobile apps
                                                                                                                                                                                                for purchasing. Warehouses, discounters and
                                                                                                                                                                                                private labels respond quickly to the needs of
                                                                                                                                                                                                price-sensitive consumers but, despite persistent
  Europe                                                                          Latin America                                        Sub-Saharan Africa                                       economic uncertainty, young, employed
                                                                                                                                                                                                consumers are eager to try new products and
                                                                                                                                                                                                are willing to pay for this indulgence. Sugar

                                              1 . 4%                                                                        3.2%                                                   6.8%         taxes in Mexico and other markets have changed
                                                                                                                                                                                                the ingredient profile of many products as
                                                                                                                                                                                                manufacturers tweak formulations to offer new
                                              0.6%                                                                          2.5%                                                   3. 1 %       flavours, hybrid and soy-based drinks in smaller
                                                                                                                                                                                                pack sizes in response to growing consumer

                                              0.8%                                                                          2.7%                                                   2.9%         awareness of national health concerns.
                                                                                                                                                                                                In the more mature markets of Europe, Australasia

                                              1 .0%                                                                         2.3%                                                   4.6%         and North America, media and national campaigns,
                                                                                                                                                                                                regulation and unsubstantiated packaging claims
                                                                                                                                                                                                are challenging consumers’ purchasing decisions.
                                              0.5%                                                                          1 . 9%                                                 2.6%         Increasing label scrutiny underlies most consumer
                                                                                                                                                                                                choice as they search for natural, health-supportive
                                                                                                                                                                                                ingredients with local sourcing and low processing.
                                                                                                                                                                                                Online services are well established, but consumers
                                                                                                                                                                                                still like to look, feel and test new products in local
                                                                                                                                                                                                retailers. Consideration of the long-term impact
   KEY                                                                                                                                                                                          on their health and on the environment of their
       Beverages       Dairy      Poultry      Pulses, Grains & Cereals   Fats & Oils
                                                                                                                                                                                                shopping behaviour is now strongly engrained.

   The colour of the industries indicates growth rate     Above global average      Global average   Below global average
                                                                                                                                     Source: Euromonitor International analysis from Passport

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          17
GLOBAL INDUSTRY OUTLOOK REPORT - Gulfood
Asia Pacific      Australasia        Europe        Latin America
                                                                                         Middle
                                                                                       East & North
                                                                                          Africa
                                                                                                         North
                                                                                                        America
                                                                                                                       Sub-Saharan
                                                                                                                          Africa
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Market Trends and Drivers
  Total F&B
  2011-2016            4.6%             2.0%              1.1%            4.2%            2.4%            0.8%             4.5%
  growth

  Total F&B
  2016-2021            4.6%             2.2%             1.8%             2.6%            2.2%            1.8%             2.0%
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Shifting consumer needs affect both affluent & low-income consumers globally

                                                                                                                                         Source: Euromonitor International analysis from Passport
  growth
                                                                                                                                                                                                    In a highly competitive market, manufacturers                                    ingredients, sugar and salt; shifting their preference
                                                                                                                                                                                                    strive to deliver an appealing, high quality, reliable                           to organic, natural and holistic ingredients while still

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
  Fastest            Internet         Internet         Internet         Internet         Internet       Internet         Internet
  growing            retailing        retailing        retailing        retailing        retailing      retailing        retailing                                                                  product with consistent standards across the globe.                              looking for novel recipes, bold and exotic tastes and
  retail channel      (38%)            (20%)             (8%)             (5%)             39%)           (14%)           (33%)                                                                     Tension is created by changing consumer trends with                              convenient packaging and product delivery. Internet
                                                                                                                                                                                                    smaller companies clearly more agile and proficient                              purchasing is also changing the delivery of products
                                                                                                                                                                                                    at developing niche, market-defining products.                                   not just for storage and home-delivery formats but
  Highest          Environment/     Environment/     Environment/     Environment/
                                                                                         Kosher
                                                                                                      Environment/                                                                                  Consumers are actively transitioning to healthier                                also in terms of access to local brands and short order
  value share      Sustainability   Sustainability   Sustainability   Sustainability                  Sustainability        NA                                                                      foods and beverages; rejecting products with artificial                          supply. Key consumer and industry trends include:
                                                                                          (71%)
  ethical label       (84%)            (74%)            (80%)            (87%)                           (76%)

  Highest           Fortified/        Naturally        Naturally       Fortified/       Naturally      Fortified/        Naturally
  value share       Functional        Healthy          Healthy         Functional       Healthy        Functional        Healthy
  H&W label           (46%)            (32%)            (48%)            (41%)           (53%)           (34%)            (52%)

                                                                                                                                                                                                           Greater demand for                   Improved F&B food                           Cold chain                Single serve, smaller packaging
                                                                                                                                                                                                            naturally healthier,                safety and hygienic                         expansion                  reflecting smaller households,

Foodservice
                                                                                                                                                                                                           functional and free-                     preparation                                                         on-the-go consumption and
                                                                                                                                                                                                             from ingredients                                                                                                  health concerns

App-based delivery services are disrupting traditional foodservice demand

Foodservice consumption continues to rise as the                        In all markets, delivery services, driven by the
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Increased label                        Increased demand for                       Increasing importance of
presence of F&B products and services in all retail                     use of mobile apps, is taking an increasing share
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            scrutiny and                          credible labelling and                     ethical positioning, such
channels increases. Convenience stores and forecourt                    of foodservice sales with many consumers now
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           ingredient list                      regulation of ingredients                       as Halal, recycled,
retailers now compete directly with traditional                         opting for rapid delivery of high quality F&B to
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             simplicity                               and sourcing                            eco-friendly or organic
foodservice outlets, providing a wide range of hot and                  the comfort of their own home. This is not just
                                                                                                                                         Source: Euromonitor International analysis from Passport

cold F&B, take-home, delivered and on-the-go stock.                     confined to young consumers but reaches, in
In less affluent markets, street stalls and kiosks offer                mature markets, into all categories, as delivery
the operator a cheaper alternative to investing in a                    services offer ingredient and recipe supply, fast
store, cafe or bar, with modern equipment improving                     food and fine dining as well as casual delivery
the quality and range of products they can now offer.                   of simple cups of coffee from local retailers.

                                                                                         Middle
                                                                                                         North         Sub-Saharan
                   Asia Pacific      Australasia        Europe        Latin America    East & North
                                                                                                        America           Africa                                                                             Clear policies on                       Increasing                   Growing interest in plant-            Scaling up of leading F&B
                                                                                          Africa
                                                                                                                                                                                                               sustainability,                   westernisation and                 based F&B substitutes               companies through M&A
  Fastest          Street Stalls     Cafes/Bars       Fast Food        100% Home       100% Home      100% Home        100% Home                                                                           farming techniques,                     diversification                      in ingredients,                activity to offset challenge
  growing            / Kiosks                                            Delivery/       Delivery/      Delivery/        Delivery/                                                                           local and careful,                        of diet                     flavourings, sweeteners             of online giants and current
  food service                                                          Takeaway        Takeaway       Takeaway         Takeaway
  channel             (3.5%)            (4.2%)           (2.1%)           (3.9%)          (5.1%)         (3.9%)           (8.4%)                                                                          transparent sourcing                                                       and protein sources                     consumer trends

                                                                                                         Note: Based on CAGR 2016-2021

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Beverages          Dairy          Meat & Poultry         Pulses, Grains & Cereals       Fats & Oils

                                                                                                                                                                                                      KEY Moons indicate the level of direct impact on each industry. The fuller the moon, the higher the direct impact Low                     High

                                                                                                                                                                                                    Source: Euromonitor International analysis from Passport, trade interviews and desk research
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Note: Level of impact mentioned is extrapolated by Euromonitor International based on its market understanding.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        19
Challenges and Opportunities

Consumers strive to define acceptable standards                                                                                                                                                                                                               Brand values are increasingly the key differentiators
for the development of the supply chain                                                                                                                                                                                                                       for the modern consumer

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Changing consumer perspectives on the production                                      Pressure to lower prices is inescapable due to stiff                                                                                                                    With an additional one billion consumers by 2030                                     presence in all markets and highly affluent consumers
of food and beverages demands improved sustainable                                    competition between manufacturers and retailers                                                                                                                         many opportunities present themselves both in                                        where added value is defined in terms of health and
agricultural practices including protecting natural                                   and is felt throughout the supply chain, from pressure                                                                                                                  developed and developing markets. Consumers                                          enhanced life expectancy. Scaling up to meet this
resources while dealing with the volatility of climate                                to lower input costs to the creation of efficient and                                                                                                                   throughout the world are demonstrating their interest                                demand by leveraging technology, both blockchain
and commodity pricing. Consumers consider farmer                                      resilient supply chains taking advantage of the                                                                                                                         in natural, healthier, high quality and safely produced                              and consumer-facing technology, is crucial. Investing
livelihoods and animal welfare important first steps                                  latest technologies. Vertical integration is intense in                                                                                                                 food and beverages through their current purchasing                                  in the supply chain and delivery logistics is essential
in the supply chain with governments demanding                                        some categories with the objective of controlling                                                                                                                       decisions. This demand is set to expand as many                                      to meeting not just the critical demands of the young,
traceability from farm to table to ensure clean and                                   all aspects of production and ensuring delivery of a                                                                                                                    families teach their children a new set of expectations.                             thoughtful consumer, but as a pathway to meeting
sanitary production and processing methods.                                           product that meets emerging consumer demand for                                                                                                                         The market is characterised by a burgeoning low-                                     future demand for personalised, tailored products of
                                                                                      ethical, naturally healthy and affordable products. Key                                                                                                                 income mass market, a slowly expanding middle-class                                  the consumer of 2030. Some of these opportunities are:
                                                                                      consumer and industry challenges include:

                                                                                                                                                               Source: Euromonitor International analysis from Passport, trade interviews and desk research
     Increased demand                         Growing demand for                               Demand for                          High cost of investing in                                                                                                       Differentiate with                       Develop affordable                          Rising demand for                      Take advantage of smart
    for ethically farmed                     limited resources such                            traceability                        farmer training, modern                                                                                                         clear and credible                          product lines                             healthier recipes,                       packaging to ensure
 ingredients and pressure                    as water and key crops                           and sourcing                           farming techniques                                                                                                           labelling to attract                      to suit low-income                        natural ingredients and                  freshness, portability and
  on farmers to produce                        by other industries                            transparency                             and technology                                                                                                            the health-conscious                          consumers in                            additive-free product                     design possibilities to
      sustainable crops                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              demographic                            developing markets                             formulations                            attract consumers

      Rapidly growing                          Rising input costs,                      Increasing competition                          Re-invention of                                                                                                         Appeal to convenience                       Widening consumer                         RTD, RTE, quick cook,                            Competitive
      demand for high                          price volatility and                        from private label                         retailing with direct                                                                                                       impulse purchasers                        palate allows for new                   ready prepared and other                       advantage through
   value resources which                       changing subsidies                         with deterioration of                        producer/supplier                                                                                                         with wider offering in                      recipes, ingredients                   convenience foods to suit                    sustainable and ethical
    are, by their nature,                                                               high quality, specialist,                    to door delivery and                                                                                                      smaller packs, snacks and                          and styles                            busy consumers                              farming methods
       in short supply                                                                  differential positioning                       online purchasing                                                                                                       convenient portable sizes

                               Beverages           Dairy          Meat & Poultry          Pulses, Grains & Cereals         Fats & Oils                                                                                                                          KEY Moons indicate the level of direct impact on each industry. The fuller the moon, the higher the direct impact Low                                 High

Source: Euromonitor International analysis from Passport, trade interviews and desk research                                                                                                                                                                  Source: Euromonitor International analysis from Passport, trade interviews and desk research
Note: Challenges listed above are a consolidation of challenges within the different industries covered in this report. Level of impact is extrapolated by                                                                                                    Note: Challenges listed above are a consolidation of challenges within the different industries covered in this report. Level of impact is extrapolated by
Euromonitor International based on its market understanding.                                                                                                                                                                                                  Euromonitor International based on its market understanding.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             21
Global Demographics Overview

                                                                                                                                                                             GLOBAL DEMOGRAPHICS OVERVIEW
                   By 2030, there will be 1 billion additional consumers ready to be served
                   across the globe
                   The world population in 2017 stands at 7.47 billion, up from 6.96 billion in 2011. With expected slower growth between
                   2017-2030, the world population is expected to reach 8.5 billion by 2030.

                   Exhibit 2 Regional population in 2017, 2030 & CAGR 2017-2030

                                394.8mn
                                                                                                    746.3mn        Europe
                                         0.7%
                                                                                                            0.0%
                                           362.1mn
                                                                                                              746.2mn                 4.5bn
                                    North
                                    America
                                                                                                    677mn                                                Asia Pacific
                                                                                                                                              0.7%

                                                                                                            1.5%                                4.1bn

                                                                                      1.4bn                   558mn

                                                                       Sub Saharan        2.5%            Middle East
                                                                             Africa                       & North Africa
                                    708.6mn                                                   1bn
                                                                                                                                       35.3mn
                    Latin America           0.8%
                                                                                                                                                           Australasia
                                              640.0mn                                                                                         1.4%

                                                                                                                                                29.3mn

                   KEY : Inner circles indicate the population in 2017, outer circles indicate the population in 2030.
                   The distance between the inner and outer circles indicates the size of the absolute growth

                   Colour of the circles indicate the growth rate                 Fast        Moderate             Slow     Static
                   Source: Euromonitor International analysis from Passport

                   More than 13% of the global population resides in                                With its rapidly growing population and an additional
                   Sub-Saharan Africa in 2017. By 2030, Sub Saharan                                 380 million people, Asia Pacific is expected to
                   Africa will be outpacing all other regions in population                         contribute the most to global food and beverage
                   growth, partly driven by foreign investments in                                  industry value sales growth, mainly driven by higher

Global Social &
                   infrastructure, healthcare and nutrition. In Sub-                                demand for oils, dairy products and beverages such as
                   Saharan Africa, the expanding population aged under                              sports and energy drinks and bottled water. The large,
                   30 years is expected to drive demand for key food                                young consumer groups in these countries will also
                   and beverage categories such as beverages and                                    drive the growth of convenient and portable forms of
                   confectionery.                                                                   beverages along with single-serve food products such

Economic Outlook
                                                                                                    as RTD tea and coffee, cheese and dairy products,
                                                                                                    cereals and pasta.

                                                                                                                                                                        23
Urbanisation vs Population Growth

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             GLOBAL DEMOGRAPHICS OVERVIEW
By 2030, 60% of the total world population will be living in urban areas
Urbanisation offers a dense, concentrated market and opportunities for retail infrastructure and products tailored
to newly affluent consumers as well as large sections of the community on low incomes. Growth in urbanisation is
expected to surpass overall population growth in all regions.

Exhibit 3 Regional urban population growth vs. total population 2017-2030

                                  URBAN POPULATION GROWTH, 2017 - 2030

   4.5%

   4.0%                                                                                                           46%      Sub Saharan
                                                                                                                           Africa

   3.5%

   3.0%

   2.5%                                                                               Middle East
                                                                             68%      & North Africa

                                                      Asia
   2.0%                                     55%       Pacific
                                                                         91%      Australasia

   1.5%

                                                 Latin
   1.0%                                   83%    America

   0.5%        77%   Europe          83%    North
                                            America

  - 0.0%
           -              0.0%          0.5%                1.0%              1.5%               2.0%              2.5%               3.0%        leader as a result of good incentives for distributors,   Highly urbanised societies in Europe create a different
                                                                                                                                                  strong below-the-line advertising, frequent consumer      profile of product demand. Meat substitutes and hot
                                                                                                                                                  promotions, as well as the availability of a variety of   cereals are examples of key growth categories on the
                                                                                       Source: Euromonitor International analysis from Passport
                                                                                                                                                  pack sizes and flavours.                                  back of strong health and wellness concerns.
                                                                Note: Bubble size represents the urban population over total population in 2030
                                                                                                                                                  In Manila, one of the most densely populated cities       For example, in the mature and saturated processed
                                                                                                                                                  in the world, the importance of product convenience       meat market in Germany, meat substitutes are now
                                                                                                                                                  has been prominent to address the demand of the           a small but strongly performing category. Meat
High urbanisation growth, as demonstrated in Sub-                       oils is greater in the Middle East and North Africa due
                                                                                                                                                  urban population. Companies such as AB Nutribev           consumption is changing with a growing number of
Saharan Africa, offers potential as new cities coalesce                 to higher disposable income levels while more mass
                                                                                                                                                  have found success with their Vitamilk product,           vegetarians and those following a vegan lifestyle. In
around natural growth in the population, migration                      market products, such as beverages (bottled water,
                                                                                                                                                  available in 300ml glass bottles and positioned as a      addition, many consumers aim to lower their meat
from rural areas and reclassification/upgrading of                      packaged tea) and dairy products are in greater
                                                                                                                                                  healthy energy drink that can help address hunger and     consumption as part of a healthy heart lifestyle.
former slums into urban areas. Urbanisation growth in                   demand in Sub-Saharan Africa.
                                                                                                                                                  tiredness. It targets the increasing demand for on-the-   This emerging consumer group presents significant
the Middle East & North Africa region is also expected
                                                                        In Nigeria, urban population has been price sensitive                     go consumption. In 2017, Purefoods-Hormel Co started      opportunities for growth with many meat processors
to be strongly influenced by large-scale infrastructure
                                                                        due to economic uncertainty which has forced unit                         construction of new production facilities for hotdogs,    now venturing into this category to ensure full portfolio
development, agricultural and land reform and the
                                                                        prices for food and beverages to rise strongly in recent                  chicken nuggets, corned beef and luncheon meat in         coverage within this market. Pure discounter Aldi
development of older and new cities.
                                                                        years. Staple foods, such as a rice, pasta and noodles,                   the Philippines to meet demand in the mid-to-high         offers a wide range of vegan options including burgers,
Growing urbanisation in these regions influences                        have seen strong growth. Instant noodles, for example,                    end of the market. Modern retailing in the Philippines    schnitzel, meatless hotdogs, meatless meatballs,
demand for food and beverage categories differently.                    are increasingly popular and are seen as convenient                       is expanding more rapidly than traditional grocery        chickenless nuggets and meat-free mince and in
Demand for higher-priced convenience categories                         to prepare, fairly cheap, and widely available. Dufil                     retailing, offering greater opportunities for hot and     December 2017, it launched its range in an additional 17
such as RTD tea and coffee and higher-grade olive                       Prima Foods’ Indomie noodles brand is now a market                        chilled foods.                                            countries.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        25
Global Economic Outlook Overview                                                                                                                             Income and Consumer Expenditure

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              GLOBAL DEMOGRAPHICS OVERVIEW
 Asia Pacific and Middle East & Africa top GDP growth to 2030                                                                                                More than half of world GDP now comprises consumer expenditure
 The food and beverage industry is one of the largest manufacturing sectors in terms of jobs and value added in most                                         In 2017, total global disposable income accounts for the 65% of total world GDP (US$51 trillion in 2017) while
 economies contributing US$77.5 trillion globally in 2017. A forecast overall CAGR of 2.9% over 2017-30 is driven in                                         consumer expenditure represents 56% of world GDP. Consumer expenditure on food and beverages is now US$6.6
 part by population growth in emerging markets within Asia Pacific and Middle East and North Africa but also by the                                          trillion or 8.5% of world GDP.
 shift to packaged and convenience foods in these regions.
                                                                                                                                                             Exhibit 5 Total global GDP, disposable income and total consumer spending, 2017
 Exhibit 4 Regional GDP in 2017, 2030 & CAGR 2017-2030

               26.3tn
                                                                                       23.7tn            Europe
                        1.9%                                                                                                                                        195*
                                                                                               1.5%
                           20.6tn
                                                                                                19.5tn                                                                                              US$77.5tn           US$50.8tn                 US$43.8tn            US$6.6tn
                 North                                                                                                     44.8tn
                 America                                                                                                                                         7.5bn
                                                                                       6.2tn                                                                   consumers
                                                                                                                                4.4%          Asia Pacific
                                                                                                                                    25.5tn
                                                                                               3.8%

                                                                   2.3tn                         4.0tn                                                                                                                                                                World consumer
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     spending on food
                                                    Sub Saharan                            Middle East                                                                                                                  World Disposable          World Consumer     and non-alcoholic
                                                                           3.8%                                                                                     2017                             World GDP              Income                  Spending            beverages
                                                          Africa                           & North Africa
                   7.1tn                                                     1.4tn
                                                                                                                            2.0tn
 Latin America             2.7%
                                                                                                                                               Australasia
                               5.1tn                                                                                             2.5%

                                                                                                                                      1.5tn
                                                                                                                                                             Note: * Countries with available data
                                                                                                                                                             Source: Euromonitor International analysis from Passport

KEY : Inner circles indicate total GDP in 2017, outer circles indicates total GDP in 2030.
The distance between the circles indicates the size of absolute GDP growth                                                                                   After the latest recession, and political and economic         proteins, fermentation and probiotics will increasingly
                                                                                                                                                             uncertainty, consumers in many countries have                  form part of a healthy diet with blockchain technology
Colour of the circles indicate the growth rate                 Fast           Moderate                Slow                                                   adopted a more cautious approach to spending.                  supporting safer supply chains and controls.
US$ fixed 2016 exchange rates, constant 2016 prices                                                                                                          Consumers in developing markets tend to be more
Source: Euromonitor International analysis from Passport                                                                                                                                                                    Forecast growth in middle-class households is
                                                                                                                                                             optimistic than those in developed counties when it
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            strongest in countries such as Nigeria and Egypt
                                                                                                                                                             comes to spending but many still focus on affordability
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            as employment and income opportunities rise in
                                                                                                                                                             as the primary purchase decision criteria.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            urban areas in these countries. Expenditure on food
Asia Pacific is forecast to achieve the fastest growth                               added products are favoured by higher income and                        As disposable income rises, consumer expenditure on            and beverages also increases at a high rate as these
in GDP, driven by the strong manufacturing and                                       older consumers looking for natural ingredients/                        food and beverages in the Asia Pacific and Middle East         middle-income households emerge.
export-led economies of China and India as well as                                   product formulations that exclude added sugar, salt,                    and Africa regions will increase from 53% of global
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Demand for fast food restaurants and processed food
overall growth in private consumption. Growing private                               preservatives and artificial ingredients. With up to                    expenditure in 2017 to 60% by 2030. Urbanisation and
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            in Nigeria is robust, fuelled by a fast-growing young
consumption in these markets is encouraged by the                                    24% of the population of Europe expected to be over                     population growth are expected to aid this consumer
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            population, rapid urbanisation, increasing affordability
expansion of global foodservice chains introducing                                   65 years by 2030, food and beverages in smaller                         spend. As a result, packaged foods and beverages are
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            and demand for convenience. In addition, Nigerians are
westernised food and beverages as well as the                                        quantities, with natural flavours and clear labelling are               expected to become more accessible, with increased
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            switching from unpackaged, unbranded products to
expansion of modern retailing formats and the raised                                 expected to be in higher demand. Rising incidences                      access to international brands and western food types.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            packaged products as the urban population reaches
presence of convenience products.                                                    of diabetes, cardiovascular diseases and osteoporosis
                                                                                                                                                             In developed markets consumers are more inclined               51% and consumers look for packaged food products
                                                                                     will drive the growth of functional foods fortified with
GDP growth in Europe is more muted, with mature,                                                                                                             towards purchasing added-value products, preferably            that are quick to prepare or ready to consume, such as
                                                                                     vitamins and minerals.
saturated markets for food and beverages. Value-                                                                                                             with natural ingredients, Plant-based and alternative          noodles, dairy products, snacks and bread.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         27
In Saudi Arabia, as women enter the workforce there is less time for shopping or preparing meals and this is leading to
increased consumption of packaged and processed foods. Rising disposable incomes and middle-class households also
support increased consumption out of home and in foodservice outlets. A growing cafe culture is driving demand for
speciality teas and coffees as international chains such as Starbucks and Dunkin Donuts or local chains such as Coffee
Planet and Bonnon Coffee expand. Young women in particular, are becoming increasingly aware of healthy lifestyles with
manufacturers launching new products that are health-oriented as well as affordable. Products such as unprocessed

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    GLOBAL DEMOGRAPHICS OVERVIEW
cheese, butter, healthier edible oils and some sauces, dressings and condiments are witnessing growing demand with many
new product launches, such as Activia Yoghurt Go by Al Safi Danone or Nestlé Fitness Granola by Nestlé.

Exhibit 6 Consumer expenditure on F&B growth and middle-class household growth for top 20 F&B spending countries

                                                                                                            Consumer Exp
    Country                                                                                                                      Typology
                                                                                                            on F&B in 2017

    China                                                                                                                       Emerging and
                                                                                                               1,033,585     Developing Countries

    USA                                                                                                                           Developed
                                                                                                                796,647           Countries

    India                                                                                                                       Emerging and
                                                                                                                423,488      Developing Countries
                                                                                                                                                    Countries with large populations and high growth in middle-class
                                                                                                                                                    household formation, such as China and India in Asia Pacific, offer
    Japan                                                                                                                         Developed
                                                                                                                420,771           Countries
                                                                                                                                                    varied opportunities in food and beverages. China, for example, will see
                                                                                                                                                    the creation of an additional 21 million new middle-class households by
    Nigeria                                                                                                                     Emerging and
                                                                                                                194,547      Developing Countries
                                                                                                                                                    2030 but India, with a similar sized population, will only add 12.7 million
                                                                                                                                                    and overall value growth will be substantially lower.
    Russia                                                                                                                      Emerging and
                                                                                                                194,126      Developing Countries   Packaged food sales are growing in India as disposable incomes
    Germany                                                                                                                       Developed         increase. Families are actively adopting westernised food concepts with
                                                                                                                188,696           Countries         sales of pasta sauces and cheese growing as pizza, burgers and Italian
    France                                                                                                                        Developed         foodservice outlets become popular. National concern around obesity
                                                                                                                178,270           Countries         is also forcing parents to focus on their children’s health and their
    Brazil                                                                                                                      Emerging and        consumption of processed foods. Parents now look for lower sugar, fat
                                                                                                                175,412      Developing Countries   and salt content in the processed food they give their children and try
    Mexico                                                                                                                      Emerging and        to ensure a proper diet of nutrients and vitamins.
                                                                                                                174,665      Developing Countries
                                                                                                                                                    “Made in China” is no longer considered inherently inferior following
    Indonesia                                                                                                                   Emerging and
                                                                                                                172,584      Developing Countries
                                                                                                                                                    strong endorsement by first lady, Peng Liyuan. However, past
                                                                                                                                                    food scandals have left Chinese consumers concerned about food
    Italy
                                                                                                                164,570
                                                                                                                                  Developed
                                                                                                                                  Countries
                                                                                                                                                    processing methods with many middle-class consumers shifting to
                                                                                                                                                    fresh, nutritional and organic foods where possible. The improving
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  “When Gen X were
    United Kingdom
                                                                                                                129,293
                                                                                                                                  Developed
                                                                                                                                  Countries
                                                                                                                                                    cold chain infrastructure has also supported the expansion of fresher            kids, we all ate
    Turkey                                                                                                                      Emerging and
                                                                                                                                                    and chilled packaged food and beverages. Fresh milk, for example, has
                                                                                                                                                    benefited both from wider availability and its image as a nutritional,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    American cheese.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Now kids are eating
                                                                                                                122,253      Developing Countries
                                                                                                                                                    convenient drink.
    Argentina                                                                                                                   Emerging and

    Spain
                                                                                                                104,771      Developing Countries   In key countries in Latin America, the middle-class continues to expand.      Havarti, Gouda, etc.
                                                                                                                                                    In Mexico 25% of all households are now classified as middle-class.
                                                                                                                102,291
                                                                                                                                  Developed
                                                                                                                                  Countries         Many now place greater value on convenience, modern retail formats,            there is a culinary
    Philippines
                                                                                                                99,587
                                                                                                                                Emerging and
                                                                                                                             Developing Countries
                                                                                                                                                    brands and product quality, rather than simply on price. Modern
                                                                                                                                                    convenience stores are very popular and are expanding in many
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    aspect to it all. A
    Pakistan                                                                                                                    Emerging and        countries. In Mexico, many are open 24 hours a day, serving fresh coffee         lot of blurring of
    South Korea
                                                                                                                99,270       Developing Countries

                                                                                                                                  Developed
                                                                                                                                                    and baked goods along with other services, such as bill payments,
                                                                                                                                                    banking and phone service support facilities, to encourage increased
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    the lines between
                                                                                                                89,717            Countries         footfall. Products available cater to the national focus on weight             meals and snacks.
    Canada                                                                                                                        Developed         management, such as less processed foods, fortified and functional
                                                                                                                81,586            Countries         alternatives and products that offer reduced sugar or reduced fat,                        Leading global
  -0.5%   0.0%   0.5%   1.0%   1.5%   2.0%   2.5%   3.0%   3.5%   4.0%   4.5%   5.0%   5.5%   6.0%   6.5%                                           which continue to drive growth as health promotion steps up nationally.               dairy manufacturer

Note: Bubble size indicates the size of total consumer spending on food and beverages in each country
Source: Euromonitor International analysis from Passport

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               29
In North America, the population aged 60 years            In Turkey, 75% of all households are now in urban
and older constitutes the fastest-growing consumer        areas. Many adults are in professional employment
segment in both the USA and Canada. This is expected      and there has been a rise in the number of single
to drive increased demand for a wide range of age-        person households. This has created demand for
specific products and services, particularly health-      smaller-sized packs, processed meat and ready meals,
related products. Many people are working longer than     with convenience and ease of preparation high on
previous generations, have higher disposable incomes      the agenda for busy working adults. Young, urban
and have an active, healthy lifestyle. Manufacturers,     consumers are interested in new and sophisticated
aware of consumer demand for natural, nutritional         products for in-home consumption, as general political
and sustainable foods, are reformulating their popular    and economic instability has depressed the frequency
products to increase appeal, achieving market share by    of eating out. Western-style coffees and health and
acquisition of smaller, successful, niche providers and   wellness products, such as fruit/herbal and green tea,
developing fresher products with natural ingredients      are increasingly popular.
and lower levels of processing that suit not just
                                                          Economic recession and trade embargos on Russia are
the older generation but also strong health trends
                                                          heightening price sensitivity. Consumers are trading
throughout the general population.
                                                          down with a shift from premium to mid-priced or
In Western Europe, the free-from trend is now well        mid to economy price segments, for example in tea,
established and growing. Gluten-, meat- and dairy-free    coffee and hot drinks. Manufacturers are responding
product ranges are increasing in variety, availability    by diversifying their product portfolios offering value
and affordability as the price gap between standard       for money lines at all price points as well as using
and free-from products narrows. Flexitarian, vegetarian   promotional activity to maintain visibility and brand
and vegan populations are growing, but even among         loyalty. Domestically produced drinks such as Russian
general consumers there are many who believe that         kompot juice drinks, kvass non-cola carbonates or
gluten- or lactose-free products are good for digestion   sugar-free and vegetable-based soft drinks are widely
and that alternative high-protein sources are kinder to   available and popular.
the environment as well as better for your health. In
the UK, for example, sales of free-from packaged foods
grew by 5% in 2016 as sales through supermarkets,

                                                                                                                     Global Food &
hypermarkets and discounters expanded.

                                                                                                                    Beverage Sector
                                                                                                                                      31
Global Total F&B Industry Overview                                                                                                                              countries limits the expansion
                                                                                                                                                                of dairy and fresh food sales
                                                                                                                                                                                                      chilled facilities for stocking
                                                                                                                                                                                                      fresh dairy, meat and seafood.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       increasing label scrutiny and
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       transparent production methods
                                                                                                                                                                but demand for milk, butter,          Consumers are increasingly                       are influencing consumer choices
                                                                                                                                                                yoghurt and cheese is growing         aware of the health impact of                    across Europe. Growth in this
                                                                                                                                                                strongly as the number of             the food they eat, especially in                 region will be much slower as

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      GLOBAL FOOD AND BEVERAGES SECTOR
                                                                                                                                                                expatriates and working women         countries such as Mexico, Brazil,                consumers look for long-term
Highest growth will come from Asia Pacific, Middle East & Africa and Latin America                                                                              increases in many countries.          Chile and Argentina, where                       health gains through diet,
                                                                                                                                                                Middle East and North Africa          awareness of food content is                     replacing the more short-term
Overall retail value of food and beverage sales across the world in 2016 reached US$1,585 billion with Asia Pacific, Latin                                      is one of the priority regions        heightened due to taxes and                      focus on lower salt, sugar and
America and Middle East & Africa accounting for 57% of this value. In 2017, it is forecasted to reach US$1,617 in 2017 and                                      for major food and beverage           government backed campaigns                      fat content. The proportion
by 2021 total value sales of food and beverages (F&B) is forecast to reach US$1,788 billion.                                                                    companies due to its growth           to lower levels of diabetes.                     of consumers over 50 years
                                                                                                                                                                potential. Local government           Gluten-, sugar- and fat-free foods               in the total population is
                                                                                                                                                                support for foreign investment        and sugar-free carbonates are                    also forecast to rise reaching
Exhibit 7 Total F&B Value Sales in 2016, 2021 & CAGR 2016-2021 US$ billion                                                                                      has also seen the establishment       popular with many consumers                      42% by 2030 up from 37% in
                                                                                                                                                                of new manufacturing plants.          looking for more naturally healthy               2017. This demographic shift
                                                                                                                                                                                                      alternatives in packaged foods.                  is expected to raise interest
                                                                                                                                                                Consolidation in modern retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       in vegetarianism, weight
                                                                                                                                                                is occurring in many smaller          In 2017, Europe accounted for
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       management with fortified
                                                                                                                                                                countries, such as Colombia and       25% of global food and beverage
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       foods and healthy snacking and
                                                                                                                                                                Chile within Latin American,          sales. The demand for naturally
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       beverages set to increase.
               290bn                                                                                                                                            but high penetration in Brazil        healthy foods and beverages,
                                                                                   412bn
                                                                                                  Europe                                                        provides many stores with
                       1.5%
                                                                                           0.9%

                                                                                                                                                                Global F&B Distribution Landscape
                          270bn
                                                                                              394bn
                                                                                                                          659bn
                 North
                 America
                                                                                   130bn                                                     Asia Pacific
                                                                                                                               3.2%

                                                                                           4.6%                                     562bn

                                                                   51bn                       104bn

                                                    Sub Saharan
                                                          Africa
                                                                          5.4%             Middle East
                                                                                           & North Africa                                                       Super/hypermarkets                    Exhibit 8 Global food value sales split by key
                  221bn                                                                                                                                                                               channels, 2011-2016 US$ million
                                                                            39bn
                                                                                                                            25bn
                                                                                                                                                                suffer as internet
 Latin America            2.8%
                                                                                                                                                  Australasia
                                                                                                                                                                retailing and
                                                                                                                                   1.1%
                              193bn
                                                                                                                                                                convenience stores                                -        200K           400K           600K          800K            1M
                                                                                                                                      24bn
                                                                                                                                                                and forecourts expand
                                                                                                                                                                                                           2011
                                                                                                                                                                Super/hypermarkets now control
                                                                                                                                                                55% of total food value sales from
                                                                                                                                                                                                           2012
KEY : Inner circle indicates total F&B value sales in 2016, outer circle indicates total F&B value sales in 2021                                                56% in 2011. Convenience stores
The distance between the circles indicates the size of absolute growth                                                                                          and forecourts have increased
                                                                                                                                                                their presence and range of                2013
Colour of the circles indicate the growth rate                 Fast          Moderate             Slow       Static
                                                                                                                                                                products offered, with market
Source: Euromonitor International analysis from Passport
                                                                                                                                                                share now reaching 6%, up from

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Source: Euromonitor International analysis from Passport
                                                                                                                                                                                                           2014
                                                                                                                                                                5% in 2011. Although still small,
                                                                                                                                                                mobile and online purchasing is
                                                                                                                                                                revolutionising food and beverage          2015
Asia Pacific is the most rapidly                      and has also supported a shift                        the Middle East and North
                                                                                                                                                                purchasing through its integration
expanding food and beverage                           from unpackaged to packaged                           Africa region. Premiumisation
                                                                                                                                                                with rapid and localised delivery
market due to burgeoning                              foods, the growth of fast food                        is a growing trend as the
                                                                                                                                                                systems and is the channel                 2016
populations, higher and more                          and specialist coffee outlets,                        number of middle-class and
                                                                                                                                                                of choice for many younger
widely distributed disposable                         a growing interest in naturally                       wealthy consumers increases,
                                                                                                                                                                consumers with global sales share
income, a growing culture of                          healthy foods as well as the                          with many young consumers
                                                                                                                                                                increasing by 1.2% since 2011.
out-of-home consumption. India                        expansion of convenience stores.                      favouring international brands                                                                            Convenient Stores and
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Discounters
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Forecourt Retailers
is the star performer, surpassing                                                                           and consumption through                             For both hot drinks and soft drinks
                                                      High disposable incomes,
Pakistan, Indonesia and China                                                                               foodservice increasing. A                           volume, super/hyper markets are                       Supermarkets/Hypermarkets                   Internet Retailing
                                                      rapid urbanisation and a large
in terms of forecast growth.                                                                                growing cafe culture is boosting                    the leading channels in 2016 with
                                                      and growing group of young                                                                                                                                      Traditional Grocery Retailers               Other Dairy
Economic expansion, rising                                                                                  sales of RTD tea and coffee as                      47% and 37% shares respectively.
                                                      consumers comprised of young
incomes and a rapidly expanding                                                                             well as demand for hot drinks
                                                      professionals and families with
middle class has led to increased                                                                           in convenience and forecourt
                                                      young children strongly influence                                                                                                                                           Note: Channel split excludes dry pulses and semi-processed pulses
spending in the last five years                                                                             stores. An underdeveloped cold
                                                      food and beverage sales across
                                                                                                            chain infrastructure in many

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 33
Exhibit 9 Global soft drinks volume sales split
by key channels, 2011-2016 Million litres

                                                                                                                                                          Modern grocery formats such as
                                                                                                                                                                                                  Global F&B Industry
     2011
            -      100K        200K           300K        400K      500k          600k
                                                                                                                                                          super/hypermarkets, forecourts
                                                                                                                                                          and convenience stores dominate
                                                                                                                                                          despite discounters actively
                                                                                                                                                          developing their network of
                                                                                                                                                                                                  Overview by Category

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              GLOBAL FOOD AND BEVERAGES SECTOR
                                                                                                                                                          stores over the last five years.
     2012                                                                                                                                                 Discounters have relied on value
                                                                                                                                                          sales driven by high quality,
                                                                                                                                                          low prices and convenience
                                                                                                                                                                                                  Beverages dominate global sales of food and beverages in value terms,
     2013
                                                                                                                                                          targeting low- and middle-income        while edible oils is the fastest growing category
                                                                                                                                                          consumers, but this approach is

                                                                                               Source: Euromonitor International analysis from Passport
     2014                                                                                                                                                 now well established and adapted        Beverages is the largest category, with soft drink dominating overall sales. Forecast growth to 2021 is strong at a 2.5%
                                                                                                                                                          by all channels, particularly           CAGR with stronger growth in hot drinks as many consumers switch to the health benefits of tea, different varieties of
                                                                                                                                                          through private label ranges.           coffee and other hot drinks. Sugar-laden carbonates are suffering in many markets as consumers search for healthier,
     2015                                                                                                                                                                                         reduced/no sugar alternatives such as hybrid juice drinks, low-fat flavoured milks and bottled water.
                                                                                                                                                          For middle to premium consumers
                                                                                                                                                          a shift to local and specialist
     2016                                                                                                                                                                                         Exhibit 11 Global F&B value share by industry, 2011–2021
                                                                                                                                                          stores is driving sales of premium,
                                                                                                                                                          natural and organic foods allowing
                                                                                                                                                          traditional and independent                         -        200       400           600       800         1,000        1,200        1,400       1,600         1,800   2,000
                Convenience Stores and                                                                                                                    grocers to maintain their market
                                                             Discounters                                                                                                                               2011
                Forecourt Retailers                                                                                                                       share at 26% globally. All leading

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Source: Euromonitor International analysis from Passport, FAO
                Supermarkets/Hypermarkets                    Internet Retailing
                                                                                                                                                          global retailers have also adopted           2012
                                                                                                                                                          omnichannel approaches to the
                                                                                                                                                                                                       2013
                Traditional Grocery Retailers                Other Dairy                                                                                  market, with large investment in
                                                                                                                                                                                                       2014
                                                                                                                                                          establishing a strong presence
                                                                                                                                                          in mobile retailing essential.               2015
                           Note: Channel split excludes dry pulses and semi-processed pulses
                                                                                                                                                          Packaged foods dominate retail               2016

                                                                                                                                                          sales through super/hypermarkets             2017
                                                                                                                                                          with traditional retailers relying
                                                                                                                                                                                                       2018
Exhibit 10 Global soft drinks volume sales split                                                                                                          on hot and soft drinks sales
by key channels, 2011-2016 Million litres                                                                                                                 more than on packaged foods.                 2019

                                                                                                                                                          Convenience stores and forecourts            2020
                                                                                                                                                          have strong sales in soft drinks             2021
                                                                                                                                                          with discounters selling both food
            -     2M         4M          6M          8M     10M        12M        14M
                                                                                                                                                          and beverages equally well.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Beverages         Dairy         Cereals, Pulses and Grains           Meat & Poultry           Fats & Oils
     2011                                                                                                                                                 Young consumers now use mobile
                                                                                                                                                          apps to order, purchase and arrange
                                                                                                                                                          delivery of food and beverages
     2012                                                                                                                                                                                         Dairy is forecast to grow at a 2.3% CAGR to 2021.                      Meat and poultry is the slowest growing category
                                                                                                                                                          at an ever-increasing rate.
                                                                                                                                                                                                  Improved cold chain infrastructure in major markets                    at CAGR 1.3%, directly influenced in mature markets
                                                                                                                                                          Foodservice, in particular, is taking
                                                                                                                                                                                                  such as Latin America, Asia Pacific and Middle                         by increasing numbers of flexitarians, vegetarians
     2013                                                                                                                                                 advantage of this opportunity with
                                                                                                                                                                                                  East & North Africa is supporting growth in fresh,                     and vegans. Lower annual consumption of meat
                                                                                                                                                          rapid ordering and delivery available
                                                                                                                                                                                                  chilled milk, yoghurts and cheese products with                        and poultry is also occurring in these markets as
                                                                                                                                                          from all leading and local providers.
                                                                                               Source: Euromonitor International analysis from Passport

     2014                                                                                                                                                                                         nutritious dairy products fitting well within the                      part of the development of healthier lifestyles.
                                                                                                                                                          Drive-in stores using online
                                                                                                                                                                                                  global interest in healthier foods. Lactose-free                       Major manufacturers are working to broaden their
                                                                                                                                                          purchasing are now common across
                                                                                                                                                                                                  milks are also growing as consumers look for more                      product portfolios as the trend towards plant-
     2015                                                                                                                                                 Europe as are instant shopping apps
                                                                                                                                                                                                  easily digestible alternatives, in many markets.                       based protein and meat substitutes gathers pace.
                                                                                                                                                          with local delivery with the hour.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         In emerging markets, beef and poultry sales are
                                                                                                                                                          Parallel in-store and online shopping   Pulses, grains and cereals are becoming more
     2016                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                growing as chilled and frozen products gain wider
                                                                                                                                                          experiences are epitomised by the       popular elements in a healthy diet with CAGR of
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         accessibility as cold chain infrastructure expands.
                                                                                                                                                          new Hema supermarket shopping           2.3% forecast to 2021. Wider availability and niche
                                                                                                                                                          concept developed by Alibaba.           products, such as buckwheat or quinoa, specialist                      Edible oils, although a small category, is the fastest
                Convenience Stores and                                                                                                                    With 22 stores open by the end          aromatic rices, ancient grains such as spelt, farro                    growing product category as demand, volume
                                                             Discounters
                Forecourt Retailers                                                                                                                       of 2017, plans are now in place to      or kamut and seeds like chia, pumpkin and sesame,                      sales and price increases. CAGR growth to 2021
                Supermarkets/Hypermarkets                    Internet Retailing
                                                                                                                                                          rollout 2,000 branches in China         are increasingly used as ingredients in foodservice.                   sits at 3.7% globally. Olive oil is the most dynamic
                                                                                                                                                          over the next five years. JD.Com        Home cooks are now embracing these ingredients as                      category responding to growing health concerns
                Traditional Grocery Retailers                Other Dairy                                                                                  have also just launched 7Fresh,         healthy sources of nutrition, vitamins and essential                   worldwide as the demand for natural, low processed,
                                                                                                                                                          a similar supermarket concept,          oils. Growth is strongest in Sub-Saharan Africa where                  pure oils increases in all markets. Blended oils,
                                                                                                                                                          with 75% of all products stocked        many of these products are staple elements of a                        palm and soya oils are also seeing growth driven
                           Note: Channel split excludes dry pulses and semi-processed pulses
                                                                                                                                                          comprised of fresh produce from         traditional diet, but there is also strong demand in                   by population expansion but, in many markets,
                                                                                                                                                          local and international sources.        Latin America and Middle East & North Africa.                          are suffering from poor perceptions in terms of
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         healthiness and heavy processing methods.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         35
Global F&B Trends & Drivers                                                                                                                             01

                                                                                                                                                       The top three countries with the biggest ethical
                                                                                                                                                       markets based on the total value of ethical
                                                                                                       Ethical living is an evolving
                                                                                                                                                       labels are the US, Japan and China shaped by
                                                                                                       consumer stance                                 availability, pricing and consumption habits.

                                                                                                                                                                                                               GLOBAL FOOD AND BEVERAGES SECTOR
                                                                                                                                                       This ranking excludes products that are locally
                                                                                                       Consumers increasingly evaluate
                                                                                                                                                       produced and organic, pesticide-free products
Manufacturers focus on expanding                                                                       brands’ ethical credentials, sourcing and
                                                                                                                                                       that are not explicitly ethically labelled.
healthier food and beverage ranges                                                                     sustainability policies with increasingly
                                                          01                                           effective, vocal, pressure group influence in
                                                                                                       mature and evolving markets. Consumers
Strong natural, health and sustainability credentials
                                                                                                       in these markets often have the luxury of
form the basis of innovation and new product             NutriAsia is the Philippines’ leading                                                          02
                                                                                                       wide product choice or tangible experience
development in global food and beverages. Products       producer, marketer and distributor of
                                                                                                       of the impact of these choices. Key
made from healthier ingredients, labelled to             high quality sauces and condiments                                                            Consumer interest is sufficiently that even in
                                                                                                       components of an ethical standpoint are
demonstrate assurances of minimal processing or          but the company is now expanding                                                              price-sensitive markets high value sales of
                                                                                                       environmental consciousness throughout
demonstrative health benefits from natural ingredients   into beverages. The company is the                                                            ethical mainstream categories can be achieved.
                                                                                                       the production process in regard to human
appeal to consumers, specifically to higher income and   owner of the very successful, Locally
                                                                                                       and animal welfare, resource usage and
ageing consumers in developed markets. Innovation        brand of quirky juices targeting younger
                                                                                                       sustainability and transportation impact
is coming from a range of start-ups and established      consumers and has now expanded
                                                                                                       through to processing, production inputs
companies around the globe in response to this trend.    into food trucks selling a wide range of                                                       03
                                                                                                       and outputs and recyclability.
Some examples include:                                   Locally fruit-based drinks. NutriAsia also
                                                         has a 67% stake in DelMonte Pacific.
                                                                                                                                                       The recycling label in the most established,
                                                                                                                                                       recognised and trusted ethical label, with
                                                                                                                                                       product sales carrying this label reaching
                                                          02                                                                                           US$700 billion worldwide. Manufacturers
                                                                                                                                                       are responding. Proctor & Gamble is the
                                                         Grupo Bimbo sales in leading markets                                                          first company worldwide to address ocean
                                                         such as Canada have been boosted by the                                                       waste, launching the first commercially
                                                         inclusion of ancient grains in new products                                                   produced shampoo bottle for Head &
                                                         such as Dempster’s whole grain with chia                                                      Shoulders made from recycled beach plastic.
                                                         as well as through acquisition of Stonemill
                                                         Bakehouse. Bimbo has also entered the UK
                                                         market for the first time with a range of
                                                         indulgent baked snacks with the objective                                                      04
                                                         on injecting innovation and variety
                                                         into a stable, less dynamic category.
                                                                                                                                                       Consumers are embracing clean labels in
                                                                                                                                                       food and beverages and are looking for non-
                                                                                                                                                       GMO, no artificial ingredients or sweeteners,
                                                          03                                                                                           hormone-free or natural/organic ingredients
                                                                                                                                                       which contribute strongly to the healthier
                                                          ellogg acquired RXBar protein bars
                                                         K                                                                                             lifestyles of consumers around the world.
                                                         from maker Chicago Bar Company
                                                         to expand their portfolio of healthier
                                                         snacks. The product lists its ingredients
                                                         prominently on the front of packaging                                                          05
                                                         and is made without added sugar, gluten,
                                                         soy or dairy. It is particularly successful
                                                                                                                                                        hierarchy of ethical labels is present
                                                                                                                                                       A
                                                         among young millennials and health and
                                                                                                                                                       with consumer spend primarily devoted
                                                         fitness-conscious consumers in the US.
                                                                                                                                                       to environmental causes such as carbon
                                                         Kellogg has also reformulated some of its
                                                                                                                                                       footprint, sustainable sources, recycling
                                                         leading products by launching healthier
                                                                                                                                                       labels. Secondarily, consumers will spend
                                                         versions with higher fibre content,
                                                                                                                                                       in areas of wellbeing and animal welfare on
                                                         including All-Bran, FiberPlus and Nutri-
                                                                                                                                                       products labelled as bird- or insect-friendly,
                                                         Grain cereal bars sold in North America.
                                                                                                                                                       free range, BPA free, protected origin as well
                                                                                                                                                       as no added sugar/hormone/MSG or GMO
                                                                                                                                                       free. Charitable causes and religious labels
                                                                                                                                                       attain the lowest level of ethical priority.

                                                                                                                                                                                                          37
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