2020 MLA INTEL MLA CANADA'S YEAR IN REVIEW
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MLA
INTEL
2020
MLA CANADA’S YEAR IN REVIEW
Real Estate Intelligent
MLA Advisory is proud to present the MLA Intel 2020: A Year in Review,
a summary of the information we monitor to keep abreast of the
market from a variety of trusted sources. To analyze the outgoing year and
plan ahead, this Market Intel features an overview of the current market
conditions and an outlook for the coming year.
FORWARD
2020. A year of steadfastness, both in struggle and opportunity. A year that some
will celebrate, some will bane, and all of us will remember. As we reflect over the
past 12 months, I find myself taken back by how much our world has shifted. Great
change usually takes time. Today, we think about progress differently. We must.
Innovation and adaptation are more apart of Canada’s productivity opportunity than
it ever has been. British Columbia has seized this opportunity. It demonstrates our
resolve to rise to grand challenges. Adapting. And persevering. Few other sectors
exemplify this outlook more so than British Columbia’s housing industry. Our commu-
nities and our culture continue to experience monumental shifts in lifestyle, habits, and
perspective from the learnings of 2020. We have searched to learn from our communi-
ties, sought solutions to ever-changing lifestyle habits, and pushed hard to create new
housing and infrastructure that capture the opportunity and creativity that fallen out of
significant shifts in demand. The Greater Vancouver region continues to prove why
it has remained a global destination. World-class amenities, cosmopolitan commu-
nities, forward-thinking social structures, health care, education and political leader-
ship. These are the foundations of a prosperous future. Our marketplace is primed
to benefit greatly from the ever-growing global demand for balance, and security.
Growth and opportunity will abound, as the departure gates throughout the world
open again.
Ryan LaLonde
PRESIDENT, PARTNER MLA CANADA
TABLE OF CONTENTS
A YEAR IN REVIEW 5
2020 Outlook 6
Disruption to selling and consuming real estate 7
Real estate development marketing act window extension 8
FUNDAMENTALS 9
Major Economic Trends 10
Population and Housing 12
MARKET SUMMARY 13
2020 Pre-sale market summery 14
2020 Resale market summery 17
2020 Market spotlight: Langley townhome market 21
2020 Buyer profile summary 22
FORECAST 23
2021 Market spotlight: Burnaby/Coquitlam highrise concrete market 24
Caveat to 2021 and forecasting 25
Provincial economics 26
Summery of GDP and unemployment projections 27
KEY INSIGHTS 28
The Flight to Space Continues 29
Technology at the Forefront of Real Estate 30
BC on the World Stage 31
Interest Rates to Remain Low 32
Supply to Increase with Continued Demand 33
ABOUT MLA ADVISORY 34
PAGE 4 | MLA ADVISORY | MARKET INTEL 2020
CANADA
A YEAR IN REVIEW
Optimism for the 2020 housing market was higher than the previous three years. Government
policy curbed a three-year bull run from 2015-2018, resulting in lacklustre market activity through
the latter half of 2018 and well into 2019. This 18-month lull in sales and new listings set the stage
for a market rebound and busy Spring 2020 Q1 market in both the resale and pre-sale markets.
PART 1 OF 4 WATCH NOW
Video: Ryan LaLonde and Suzana Goncalves
discuss a Year in Review.
2020 OUTLOOK
Like past years, 2020 began with Chinese New Year
celebrations in late January, which is hallmarked by large,
in-person events that aim to capitalize on the good fortune
and new wealth of the upcoming year. Notably, January 2020
had the highest same-month pre-sale absorption with 51% of
newly released inventory selling. As February rolled around,
the market activity remained healthy across the Lower Mainland,
with nine new pre-sale projects beginning sales programs and
Greater Vancouver resales posting 45% year-over-year gains.
Heading into March, a typically active Spring market, the
industry was incredibly optimistic that 2020 would be the
strongest year since 2017.
PAGE 6 | MLA ADVISORY | MARKET INTEL 2020
CANADA
DISRUPTION TO SELLING
AND CONSUMING
REAL ESTATE
Halfway through March, the Covid-19 pandemic effectively
halted the real estate industry in the Lower Mainland. The
Provincial Government’s advice at the time was to stay home
as much as possible and avoid hosting/attending open houses
or other large-scale events. As a result, pre-sale presentation
centres closed completely, and the initial shock led many to
believe the real estate selling process to be impacted substantially
in the near-term. Despite the abrupt nature of the first lockdown,
industry participants proved to be incredibly resilient as many
actively selling projects reopened with newly established
cleaning protocols and a switch to appointment-only showings.
Furthermore, sales and marketing moved primarily online,
where virtual realtor events and Zoom webinars became the
industry’s norm, effectively increasing new opportunities in
reaching homebuyers.
PAGE 7 | MLA ADVISORY | MARKET INTEL 2020
CANADA
REAL ESTATE DEVELOPMENT MARKETING ACT
WINDOW EXTENSION
On April 21, 2020, the Superintendent of Real Estate amended Policy Statement 17 to allow for an additional three months of early
marketing activity for new real estate developments. Further to an extension on July 16, 2020, this amendment allows pre-sale
developments a 12-month window instead of the standard 9-month marketing window. This marketing extension provides
developers extra time to meet pre-sale financing targets within the new pandemic-imposed real estate sales and marketing
parameters, taking more time and requiring increased accommodations for appointments and social distancing. Interestingly, this
amendment not only applies to new development properties but also applies to development property with disclosure statements
filed retroactively to June 17, 2019. This significant policy change gives developers more leeway during the early marketing process
and will help contribute to community building and successful new property developments.
“
Although Covid-19 was the catalyst, the overall market will
benefit greatly from making the three-month policy 17
REDMA extension permanently. This will give developers
12 months rather than 9 to secure financing and receive
building permit which will improve market stability and
variety of product offerings.
”
SUZANA GONCALVES
EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT, SALES AND MARKETING,
PARTNER MLA CANADA
PAGE 8 | MLA ADVISORY | MARKET INTEL 2020
CANADA
FUNDAMENTALS
Although there have been significant social, economic, and lifestyle impacts caused by
the Covid-19 pandemic, the real estate industry’s nimble and dynamic nature, coupled
with persistent demand and constrained supply, has allowed prices to escalate over
2020. The following section highlights macroeconomic and industry-specific factors in
2020 that will impact the industry moving into 2021 and beyond.
PART 2 OF 4 WATCH NOW
Video: Ryan LaLonde and Suzana Goncalves
discuss the market fundamentals of 2020.
MAJOR ECONOMIC TRENDS
INTEREST RATE
The Bank of Canada reduced the overnight rate by 150bps from 1.75% to 0.25% in March 2020 in response to the coronavirus pandemic.
The most recent interest rate change prior to that was in October 2018 when the overnight policy rate was increased from 1.50% to
1.75%. The last time the overnight rate was this low was in response to the 2008/2009 financial market collapse when the Bank of
Canada lowered the overnight rate to 0.05% in the Spring of 2009. The fundamental difference between the 2008 financial crisis and
the Covid-19 pandemic is the amount of government-driven income support, direct consumer payments, and business subsidies that
have been implemented to help mitigate negative business consequences and encourage economic activity.
In 2021, some direct payments, tax, and business subsidies will cease, and the window for mortgage deferrals is also coming to an end
in Q1-2021. The immediate impact on the economy has yet to be seen; however, we anticipate further business closures, continued
pressures on part-time and hourly wage earners (specifically in entertainment and hospitality) and some forced selling within the
residential real estate market - albeit minimal as 93% of households who deferred mortgages have begun repaying.1
CANADIAN INTEREST RATE
2.5%
2.0%
1.75%
1.50%
1.5%
1.0%
0.25%
0.05%
0.05%
0%
2009 2010-2017 2018 2019 2020
1) Source
PAGE 10 | MLA ADVISORY | MARKET INTEL 2020
CANADAMAJOR ECONOMIC TRENDS
MORTGAGE RATES
With Canada’s prime rate dropping to 2.45% at the end of 2020, we witnessed a 0.99% five-year variable mortgage rate and a 1.39%
five-year fixed mortgage rate. These rates are all-time lows and provide desirable financing for anyone looking to purchase a home.
CANADA’S PRIME RATE
“
Today we have the opportunity to take advantage of the lowest
interest rates in a generation. And for those able to qualify for
a mortgage, this extremely low cost to borrow could provide
0.99% 1.39%
the most affordable buying window. Supply and demand forces
are lining up to push values even higher.
2021 2021
”
Cameron McNeill
Five-year variable mortgage rate Five-year fixed mortgage rate
EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, PARTNER MLA CANADA
FISCAL POLICY RESPONSE TO COVID-19
As of mid-December 2020, Canada’s total fiscal policy response (CAD 354 Billion) to Covid-19 was approximately 16.4% of GDP,
which is proportionally higher than most other G20 nations. Japan (21.1%) is also notably high concerning Covid-19 relief spending.
The Canadian national deficit is growing faster than any developed nation, which is of concern in the long run but reassuring in the
short-term as the federal government has come to Canadians’ aid.1
1) Source
PAGE 11 | MLA ADVISORY | MARKET INTEL 2020
CANADAPOPULATION AND HOUSING
IMMIGRATION
The pandemic-induced travel restrictions implemented in March continue to have a significant negative impact on immigration
into Canada. Through the first half of 2020, immigration was down 35% compared to 2019. Compared to the annual target of
341,000 new permanent residents, Canada welcomed approximately 185,000 new residents in 2020. For reference, the last time
there were less than 200,000 permanent residents admitted to Canada was in 1999.
In a Fall economic update, the Government of Canada estimated that overall population growth would fall from 1.4% in 2018 and
2019 to 1.0% in 2020, primarily due to decreased immigration flows. Despite drastically reduced immigration, the optimistic Cana-
dian government adjusted their immigration targets and plan to admit just over 1.2M Permanent Residents in 2021, 2022, and 2023
combined. This is equal to approximately 1.0% of Canada’s population annually. These adjusted projections account for an additional
50,000 new Permanent Residents per year compared to previous targets (150,000 people total). Although restrictions continue to
limit travel and population flows, these new commitments are a positive sign as immigration is a fundamental driver for real estate
demand and market growth.
CANADIAN GOVERNMENT ADJUSTED
THEIR IMMIGRATION TARGETS
“
In 2021 we will see a unique combination of forces contrib-
Over 1.2M Permanent Residents
2023 421,000 uting to a healthy and exciting market ahead. As travel and
immigration start to flow back into Canada and Vancouver, we
will see a large wave of demand seeking new housing options.
2022 411,000
”
Cameron McNeill
2021 401,000
EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, PARTNER MLA CANADA
0
100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000
PAGE 12 | MLA ADVISORY | MARKET INTEL 2020
CANADAMARKET SUMMARY
The local real estate market proved to be remarkably adaptable in 2020, adjusting to
the new realities of buying and selling homes that include social distancing, masks,
and avoiding large group gatherings (i.e. Open houses or Grand Opening events).
As commutes to work and in-person communication diminished, the rise of online
information sessions/webinars and virtual meetings have kept the industry functioning
and allowed projects to progress. For many purchasers, the pandemic and its effects
have altered preferences for housing type and location. Spending more time at home
and less time travelling/commuting has influenced many buyers to seek more space,
easy access to the outdoors, and a more comprehensive living experience that also
addresses safety and privacy concerns. The shift in values has resulted in a relative
spike in secondary market transactions, emphasizing ground-oriented townhomes
and detached homes from a number’s standpoint. Furthermore, the low-interest-rate
environment provides affordable access to debt that has benefitted investors and
first-time homebuyers alike.
PART 3 OF 4 WATCH NOW
Video: Ryan LaLonde and Suzana Goncalves
discuss 2020’s pre-sale and resale data.2020 PRESALE MARKET SUMMARY
There were 110 new condominium and townhome presale projects that launched sales across the Lower Mainland in 2020. Broken
down by product type there were 19 concrete condominium, 24 wood frame condominium, and 64 townhome projects that began
sales in 2020. These projects include approximately 7,500 units released to market with an additional 3,500 units contained in
future phases. Considering the substantial impacts of Covid-19, 2020 was a very successful year for the presale market. The industry
was able to aptly adjust the selling and prospecting process to accommodate social distancing and limits on group gatherings.
PRESALE PROJECTS THAT LAUNCHED SALES 2020 PRESALE PROJECTS
ACROSS THE LOWER MAINLAND IN 2020
7,500 3,500
CONCRETE WOODFRAME TOWNHOME
19 24 64 UNITS RELEASED UNITS CONTAINED
FUTURE PHASES
PAGE 14 | MLA ADVISORY | MARKET INTEL 2020
CANADA2020 PRESALE MARKET SUMMARY
GREATER VANCOUVER
There were 73 pre-sale project launches in 2020 (68% of the Lower Mainland total), including just over 8,500 condominium and
townhome units. Concrete products saw a lift in activity during 2020. The Cambie Corridor sub-market saw the first single-building
project on the core stretch since October 2018 and saw a high-rise building completely sell out for the first time in two years.
FRASER VALLEY
There were 34 pre-sale project launches in 2020 (32% of Lower Mainland total), including just over 2,700 condominium and town-
home units. There were seven condominium project launches (6 wood frame and one concrete) and 27 townhome project launches
by product type.
GREATER VANCOUVER FRASER VALLEY
36 CONDOMINIUM PROJECT LAUNCHES 34 CONDOMINIUM PROJECT LAUNCHES
CONCRETE WOODFRAME TOWNHOME CONCRETE WOODFRAME TOWNHOME
18 18 37 1 6 27
PAGE 15 | MLA ADVISORY | MARKET INTEL 2020
CANADA2020 PRESALE MARKET SUMMARY
HISTORICAL PRESALE LAUNCH ACTIVITY
Pre-sale activity in 2020 was almost identical to 2019 when 110 new pre-sale projects were released that included approximately
10,000 units.
“
199
200
Rising home values will be the theme of 2021, fuelled by abun-
dant opportunities across a wide range of housing markets.
155
145
Demographic demand, coupled with new lifestyle and social
connection trends, will remain a driving force behind consumer
behaviour. Vancouver will be a significant benefactor of these
trends, from both local and international demand perspectives.
2015 2016
PROJECT LAUNCHES
2017 2018
Ryan LaLonde
”
PRESIDENT, PARTNER MLA CANADA
PRE-SALE PURCHASE ACTIVITY
The pre-sale market saw significant sales volume considering the multitude of restrictions placed on Presentation Centres and
in-person buyer activity. Notably, townhome purchases hit record levels in Q3 with over 1,300 pre-sales.
SALES VOLUME OF 2020 PRE-SALE RELEASES SALES VOLUME OF ALL PRE-SALE PROJECTS
5,100 PRESALES 8,800 PRESALES
CONCRETE WOODFRAME TOWNHOME CONCRETE WOODFRAME TOWNHOME
1,900 1,300 1,900 2,800 2,300 3,700
Source: Urban Analytics
*Typically, a “low” scenario is 100 presale projects launches in a year, a “medium” scenario is 150 presale project launches in a year, and a “high” scenario is 200 presale project launches in a year.
PAGE 16 | MLA ADVISORY | MARKET INTEL 2020
CANADA2020 RESALE MARKET SUMMARY
HISTORICAL RESALE ACTIVITY
There were 50,870 sales across Greater Vancouver and the Fraser Valley in 2020. Sales have not been over 50,000 since 2017 and
mark a 10,032 increase in total property sales from 2019 (24.6% more sales than 2019).
GREATER VANCOUVER
In 2020 there were 30,944 property transactions, which is 22.1% above 2019 sales. Active property listing total 54,305 active property
listings, which is 4.6% above 2019 inventory and on par with the past decade. The increased sales in Greater Vancouver have escalated
prices as demand has outstripped supply. The benchmark HPI Price for all property types in Greater Vancouver appreciated $45,700
over 2020 (4.6%)
SALES TO LISTING
THE BENCHMARK HPI PRICE FOR ALL PROPERTY
TYPES IN GREATER VANCOUVER APPRECIATED
60,000
2019 VS 2020
50,000 54,305
51,918
40,000
$45,700
$43,600
30,000
30,944
20,000 25,351
10,000
0 2019 2020
2019 2020
SALES INVENTORY
PAGE 17 | MLA ADVISORY | MARKET INTEL 2020
CANADA2020 RESALE MARKET SUMMARY
GREATER VANCOUVER
DOLLAR VOLUME. OF SALES
The total dollar volume of property transactions reached $33.2B in 2020, which is the highest annual dollar volume of real estate
sales since 2017.
Notably, the dollar value of real estate accounted for by townhomes was 14% in 2020, which is the highest proportion in the past
decade of sales data.
PAGE 18 | MLA ADVISORY | MARKET INTEL 2020
CANADA2020 RESALE MARKET SUMMARY
FRASER VALLEY
In 2020 there were 19,926 property transactions, which is 28.7% above 2019 sales. Active property listings totalled, which is 3.7%
above 2019 inventory and on par with the past decade. The increased sales in the Fraser Valley have escalated prices as demand
has outstripped supply. The benchmark HPI Price for all property types in the Fraser Valley appreciated $63,900 over 2020 (7.8%).
SALES TO LISTING
35,000
THE BENCHMARK HPI PRICE FOR ALL PROPERTY
30,000
30,568 31,693 TYPES IN FRASER VALLEY APPRECIATED
2019 VS 2020
25,000
20,000
19,926
$63,900
15,000
15,487
$58,900
10,000
5,000
0
2019 2020
2019 2020
SALES INVENTORY
“
On the heels of a very slow 2018 and 2019, pent-up demand, low interest rates and a shift in housing requirements given the
increased time spent in our homes in 2020, end-users drove the market leading to significant year over year sales increases.
”
SUZANA GONCALVES
EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT, SALES AND MARKETING, PARTNER MLA CANADA
PAGE 19 | MLA ADVISORY | MARKET INTEL 2020
CANADA2020 RESALE MARKET SUMMARY
FRASER VALLEY
DOLLAR VOLUME OF SALES
Total dollar volume of property transactions totaled $15.5B in 2020, which is the highest annual dollar volume of real estate sales on
record in the Fraser Valley.
The average property sale price in the Fraser Valley has grown an astonishing 20.7% from December 2019 to December 2020.
($750,917 --> $906,606)
FRASER VALLEY PROPERTY SALE PRICE
$906,606
$10,000,000
$750,917
$5000,000
$0
DECEMBER DECEMBER
2019 2020
PAGE 20 | MLA ADVISORY | MARKET INTEL 2020
CANADA2020 MARKET SPOTLIGHT: LANGLEY TOWNHOME MARKET
The elevated market activity seen in the Fraser Valley in 2020 is best exemplified by looking at the Langley townhome market. In
Langley, 13 new townhome projects began selling in 2020, accounting for 50% of the Fraser Valley townhome projects that launched
sales in 2020. Of the 752 townhome units released to the market, approximately 45% (335 units) were absorbed by year-end.
The first new townhome projects to launch in 2020 were priced just above $400 PPSF, and over the course of 2020, PPSF has
reached closer to $475 PPSF by year-end. Over 2020, the Fraser Valley and, more specifically, Langley, has experienced incredible
demand for townhomes as families establish themselves and make a move into a larger home in a relatively affordable market.
New construction price increases in 2020 represent up to a $100,000 increase for 2-bed townhomes, a $60,000 increase for 3-bed
townhomes, and a $50,000 increase for 4-bed townhomes. The steep price escalation on smaller-format homes resulted in a higher
PPSF for the market over 2020.
45 %
“
SOLD We saw 2020 came out of the gates more vigorous than ever
with optimism for the housing market and new confidence
752 UNITS from the consumer. Due to the 2019 lull in sales and new
RELEASED listings, we saw an unseasonably high Fall market that perfect-
ly set the stage for a rebound and busy Spring 2020 market
through to the end of the year. As we look ahead to 2021, we
$475
$600
$400 PPSF know that the Fraser Valley region will continue to be a desir-
PPSF able location for homeownership.
$300
”
BRITTANY REIMER
$100
MANAGING DIRECTOR, FRASER VALLEY
0%
2020
PAGE 21 | MLA ADVISORY | MARKET INTEL 2020
CANADA2020 BUYER PROFILE SUMMARY
Families were among the most active buyer demographic in 2020; many undecided families about upsizing or purchasing in a more
affordable neighbourhood with more space did so, especially in the latter half of the year.
Based on a MLA surveys conducted across 16 of its active projects in 2020, first-time home buyers made up the majority (41%) of MLA
purchasers in 2020, followed by those wanting to up-size (31%).
Fewer investors made up the purchaser profile, especially at the onset of the pandemic as uncertainty was incredibly high. In fact, only
12% of purchasers in 2020 were made up of investors, which was a decrease of 50% from 2019. None of these investor purchasers were
international purchasers. However, as the market recovered over the course of 2020 and interest rates remained low, we saw increased
activity in the pre-sale market, specifically evident with concrete condominium projects, which had success in October and November
after holding off throughout the Summer.
The following graphic provides a snapshot of purchaser profiles from 2020 at MLA projects based on motivation, age, life stage and
household income:
LIFESTAGE AGE
14%
. 20 - 29 30 - 39 40 - 49 50 - 59 60 - 69 70 - 79 80+
SINGLE
ROOM TO GROW 2%
ROOM TO START 6%
17%
41% 31% 38% 12%
COUPLE
34%
FAMILY WITH
ROOM TO PART ROOM TO SHOW CHILDREN AT HOME 24%
15% 12% 38%
HOUSEHOLD INCOME
< $50,000 $250,000
$
PAGE 22 | MLA ADVISORY | MARKET INTEL 2020
CANADAFORECAST
During the market’s height from 2015-2017, there were significant land purchases and
rezonings that highlighted interest in the market close to transit centres, mall redevel-
opments, where new immigrants tend to locate. We start to see some of this product
coming to market soon.
HOME PRICES TO DOUBLE BY 2035
“
Although I cannot easily predict the balance of 2020, I can
make a confident long-term prediction: In 2035, the average
price of a home in Vancouver will more than double from
2020 values. (That’s roughly 4.75% compounded annual re-
turn). A $1,000,000 home will exceed $2,000,000 in 15 years.
”
Cameron McNeill
EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, PARTNER MLA CANADA
READ MORE2021 MARKET SPOTLIGHT: 2021 PRESALE PROJECTS
LAUNCH IN BURNABY AND COQUITLAM
BURNABY/COQUITLAM
HIGHRISE CONCRETE MARKET
2021 will be a busy year for new highrise projects as investor
confidence has substantially improved over the second half of
15 5,000
2020. Many projects that put on pause in the Spring will come
to market with altered sales strategies. There were numerous
examples of successful concrete launches in 2020, including
West Coquitlam, Richmond, and Burnaby.
CONCRETE PROJECTS UNITS
In 2021, MLA Canada anticipates that 15 new concrete
projects will launch in Burnaby and Coquitlam (this excludes
future phases of existing developments). These projects contain
just over 5,000 units (5,256) of inventory and broken down
by neighbourhood: 1,609 units in Burquitlam, 1,656 units in BROKEN DOWN BY NEIGHBOURHOOD
Metrotown, and 1,639 units in Brentwood. These numbers are
auspicious considering there were only 19 total highrise concrete
project launches in the Lower Mainland in 2020 (18 in Greater
Vancouver and 1 in the Fraser Valley).
BURQUITLAM METROTOWN BRENTWOOD
1,609 1,656 1,639
PAGE 24 | MLA ADVISORY | MARKET INTEL 2020
CANADACAVEAT TO 2021 AND
FORECASTING
There is persistent economic, social, and societal uncertainty
that will continue to upend forecasts along many dimensions
of the economy. The lengthy process of wide-spread inocula-
tion against Covid-19 will likely span into 2022 in Canada, with
procedural speedbumps and potential new virus variants
extending that process even longer.
The intense globalization and interconnectedness that allowed
Covid-19 to permeate across the globe will also hinder the road
to recovery. Stark differences in fiscal and monetary policy, rates
of infection, and travel restrictions will impede the return to
“normal” as various nations progress differently.
PAGE 25 | MLA ADVISORY | MARKET INTEL 2020
CANADAPROVINCIAL ECONOMICS
Private Sector Projection (BMO)
GDP Target for BC: 5.6% growth over 2021.
2021 Projected unemployment of 6.5%, while the national projection is 7.5%. Projections for other provinces: Ontario (7.5%),
Quebec (7%), and Alberta (9.1%)
Public Sector; BC Government Projection
GDP Target for BC: 3% growth in 2021 after a projected 6.2% contraction in GDP in 2020
2021 PROJECTED UNEMPLOYMENT 2021 GDP PREDICTION PER PROVINCE
BRITISH COLUMBIA 5.6%
ALBERTA 4.8%
SASKATCHEWAN 4.5%
ALBERTA 9.1%
MANITOBA 4.5%
ONTARIO 5.1%
QUEBEC 7%
QUEBEC 4.6%
NEW BRUNSWICK 3.7%
ONTARIO 7.5%
NOVA SCOTIA 4%
PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND 3.9%
BRITISH COLUMBIA 6.5% NEWFOUNDLAND & LABRADOR 4.5%
CANADA 5%
0
5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 0
1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6%
PAGE 26 | MLA ADVISORY | MARKET INTEL 2020
CANADASUMMARY OF GDP AND UNEMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS
Less Covid-19 related restrictions have put BC in a position for elevated GDP growth than other provinces that have seen more
stringent lockdowns. Although relevant nationally, BC’s economy is less reliant on the energy sector and will therefore rebound
quicker than other provinces such as Alberta. Furthermore, a resilient and robust housing market continues to be a staple of BC’s
economy and will aid the overall economic rebound moving forward.
After experiencing a forecasted 5.0%-6.0% GDP contraction in 2020, the BC government expects a 3.0% GDP rebound while the
private sector forecasts up to 5.6% rebound in GDP, which would lead all provinces and exceed the national average of 5.0% projected
for 2021. 5.0% national GDP growth would be the highest national growth rate since 2000.
“
As demand for new housing increases, the development community will respond by releasing new projects
and inventory into the marketplace. The first half of 2021 will be a healthy and competitive market providing
the much-needed new supply and choice for the prospective new homeowner or investor.
”
Cameron McNeill
EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, PARTNER MLA CANADA
PAGE 27 | MLA ADVISORY | MARKET INTEL 2020
CANADAKEY INSIGHTS
There will be no “going back to normal.” A flight to space shall remain as buyer’s values
have shifted. Technology-driven changes to how home buyers shop and consume
real estate will fundamentally change how the industry markets and sells housing
product and provide services. Prices are likely to remain stable in 2021 as interest rates
remain low. Despite interruptions to immigration, the local housing market has had
no shortage of demand, which signals strength within the local buyer pool. Mostly as
Canada, BC, and the Lower Mainland remains a desirable place to live.
“
2021 will carry on with an active market over and above 2020 as we add new residents to the Lower Mainland, as our provincial
economy remains relatively strong, and as interest rates remain low. BC continues to have a spotlight as one of the best places
to live between the quality of life, economic stability, and our ability to weather global issues, including a pandemic.
”
Suzana Goncalves
EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT, SALES AND MARKETING
PART 4 OF 4 WATCH NOW
Video: Ryan LaLonde and Suzana Goncalves
discuss key insights looking into 2021.THE FLIGHT TO SPACE
CONTINUES
2020 will be responsible for one of the most dramatic shifts
in lifestyle habits in 40 years. Over the past 12 months, a new
value formula has established itself through every marketplace.
An unhinging between where we work and where we live. Our
forced acceptance of technology that enables virtual connections
has unlocked new markets. The Fraser Valley has been the biggest
recipient of this shift. 2021 will be a continuation of the new
value formula, growth in the secondary marketplaces, and em-
phasis on single-family dwellings
PAGE 29 | MLA ADVISORY | MARKET INTEL 2020
CANADATECHNOLOGY AT THE
FOREFRONT OF REAL ESTATE
Overall, the real estate industry has been plodding to adopt
new technologies, see disrupters, or substantially change the
way its sales and marketing operate over the last decade. The
status quo was good enough to get by as the local market was
organically strong. Covid-19 has put technology at the forefront
of our industr y. We’re likely to see sustained changes
to cons u m e r behaviour and how we can support them
through various services such as sales and marketing, appraisals,
legal, and mortgage lending. All service providers will need
to continue adapting to new ways of operating. Investment in
digital tools for a more robust presence will be crucial as more
consumer buying trends will happen online.
PAGE 30 | MLA ADVISORY | MARKET INTEL 2020
CANADABC ON THE WORLD STAGE
In 2021 we will see a unique combination of forces contrib-
uting to a healthy and exciting market ahead. As travel and
immigration start to flow back into Canada and Vancouver, we
will see a large wave of demand seeking new housing options. The
Canadian government has committed 1.2 million residents over
the next three years. The Lower Mainland is likely to welcome half a
million people over the next decade, requiring 500,000 new
residences in our housing stock. Canada’s, and particularly BC’s,
global brand and desirability has once again risen worldwide,
one of the most preferred destinations to call home and invest
capital due to economic strength and resiliency and quality of
life. This region’s growth will escalate in the years to come.
PAGE 31 | MLA ADVISORY | MARKET INTEL 2020
CANADAINTEREST RATES TO
REMAIN LOW
Today we have the opportunity to take advantage of the low-
est interest rates in a generation. And for those able to qualify
for a mortgage, this meagre cost to borrow could provide the
most affordable buying window. Supply and demand forces
are lining up to push values even higher. Due to the low supply
levels of completed products, the only option for many will be
pre-sales (Purchasing a home or condo months or years before
completion).
PAGE 32 | MLA ADVISORY | MARKET INTEL 2020
CANADASUPPLY TO INCREASE WITH
CONTINUED DEMAND
As demand for new housing increases, the development
community will respond by releasing new projects and
inventory into the marketplace. The first half of 2021 will be a
healthy and competitive market providing the much-needed
new supply and choice for the prospective new homeowner
or investor. Sales are likely to be steady, and although pricing
will continue to escalate, it will do so at a reasonable rate in
comparison to the growth in 2016/17.
PAGE 33 | MLA ADVISORY | MARKET INTEL 2020
CANADAMLA ADVISORY
MLA Advisory’s deep intelligence is powered by a dedicated team of advisors and in-
dustry-leading professionals with a vast range of expertise and experience in real estate
advisory, urban land economics, urban planning, design, and sales and marketing with
proven results. We tirelessly analyze market trends and study consumer demand to
best position our client’s portfolio for success. MLA Advisory’s scope of services delivers
tremendous value to developers at all stages of the development cycle, from acquisi-
tions to sales execution, and comprises comprehensive market intelligence, product
envisioning and design, including unit mix, floorplan, and amenity programming, and
strategic price analysis.
For more information on MLA’s Advisory Services, please contact:
Cameron McNeill, Executive Director and Partner. Cameron@mlacanada.com
Ryan Lalonde, President and Partner. Ryan@mlacanada.com
Jeff Greig, Director of Advisory. jeff.greig@mlacanada.comReal Estate Intelligent
MLACANADA.COM
ADVISORY@MLACANADA.COM
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