2021 Tech Trends Report - Privacy Security - Open Learning Campus
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Volume 8 of 12 14th Annual Edition 2021 Tech Trends Report Privacy Strategic trends that will influence business, Security government, education, media and society in the coming year.
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Privacy and Security
03 Overview 23 Cyber Homicide
04 Macro Forces and Emerging Trends 23 Supply Chain Attacks
06 Summary 24 Techlash Leads to Messy Code
08 Privacy and Security Problems
09 Trackers Everywhere 24 Zero-Day Exploits Rising
09 Emphasizing Data Ethics 24 Zero-Knowledge Proofs
Go Commercial
09 Crowdsleuthing
25 Government Requests
10 Remote Worker Monitoring
for Backdoor Access
10 Data Retention Policies
25 Remote Kill Switches
10 Compliance Challenges
25 Low-Cost Malware
and Unrealistic Budgets
25 Consumer IoT Vulnerabilities
10 Drone Surveillance
25 Sonic Lock Picking
11 Non-Line-of-Sight Tracking
26 Data Theft Becomes
11 Contact Tracing
Data Manipulation
11 Data Privacy Enforcement Returns
26 Cyber Risk Insurance
11 Fragmented Approaches to Privacy
26 AI-Powered Automated
and Data Ownership
Hacking Systems
12 Privacy and Unionizing at Big Tech
26 Hijacking Internet Traffic
12 Encrypted Messaging Networks
26 DDoS Attacks on the Rise
12 Biological Privacy
27 Third-Party Verified Identities
13 Depth of Field Recognition
27 Ransomware-as-a-Service
13 Personal Electronic Keys
27 Decentralized Hacktivists
13 Public Entities Selling Private Data
27 Weird Glitches
13 GDPR Copycats
27 Open Source App Vulnerabilities
13 Eavesdropping Rights
27 Global Cybersecurity Pacts
13 Preventing Digital Self-Incrimination
28 Proliferation of Darknets
14 Differential Privacy
28 Bounty Programs
14 Defining Online Harassment
28 Magnetic Tape Supply Shortages
14 Safeguarding and Verifying
28 State-sponsored Security Breaches
Leaked Data
29 Critical Infrastructure Targets
15 Scenario: Full (Human) Autonomy
29 Offensive Government Hacking
16 China’s Panopticon
30 Scenario: Misinformation Moats
17 Scenario: Privacy
Protection Startups 32 Cybersecurity Terms Every
Executive Should Know
19 Security
35 Application
21 Security Breaches from 2020
36 Key Questions
23 Bio-Cyberattacks
37 Sources
23 Biometric Malware
38 Authors
23 DNA Database Hacks
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Privacy and Security
Overview
The 1920s began in chaos. Cata- It’s difficult not to see striking ed trends. In total, we’ve analyzed
clysmic disruption resulting from parallels to our modern world. A nearly 500 technology and science
the first world war and the Spanish tumultuous U.S. election, extreme trends across multiple industry
flu shuttered businesses and pro- weather events and Covid-19 sectors. In each volume, we discuss
voked xenophobia. Technological continue to test our resolve and the disruptive forces, opportunities
marvels like the radio, refrigerator, our resilience. Exponential tech- and strategies that will drive your
vacuum cleaner, moving assembly nologies—artificial intelligence, organization in the near future.
line and electronic power trans- synthetic biology, exascale com-
Now, more than ever, your organi-
mission generated new growth, puting, autonomous robots, and
zation should examine the poten-
even as the wealth gap widened. off-planet missions to space—are
tial near and long-term impact of
More than two-thirds of Ameri- challenging our assumptions about
tech trends. You must factor the
cans survived on wages too low to human potential. Under lockdown,
trends in this report into your stra-
sustain everyday living. The pace we’ve learned how to work from
tegic thinking for the coming year,
of scientific innovation—the dis- our kitchen tables, lead from our
and adjust your planning, opera-
covery of insulin, the first modern spare rooms, and support each
tions and business models accord-
antibiotics, and insights into theo- other from afar. But this disruption
ingly. But we hope you will make
retical physics and the structure of has only just begun.
time for creative exploration. From
atoms—forced people to reconsid-
With the benefit of both hindsight chaos, a new world will come.
er their cherished beliefs.
and strategic foresight, we can
The sheer scale of change, and the choose a path of reinvention. Our
great uncertainty that came with 2021 Tech Trends Report is de-
it, produced two factions: those signed to help you confront deep
who wanted to reverse time and uncertainty, adapt and thrive. For Amy Webb
return the world to normal, and this year’s edition, the magnitude
Founder
those who embraced the chaos, of new signals required us to cre-
The Future Today Institute
faced forward, and got busy build- ate 12 separate volumes, and each
ing the future. report focuses on a cluster of relat-
03 © 2021 Future Today Institute
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
6
1
Macro Forces and
Emerging Trends 2 3 4 5
For nearly two decades, the Future Today Institute has meticulously re-
searched macro forces of change and the emerging trends that result.
Our focus: understanding how these forces and trends will shape our
futures. Our 14th annual Tech Trends Report identifies new opportunities
for growth and potential collaborations in and adjacent to your business.
We also highlight emerging or atypical threats across most industries,
including all levels of government. For those in creative fields, you will find
a wealth of new ideas that will spark your imagination.
Our framework organizes nearly 500 trends into 12 clear categories.
Within those categories are specific use cases and recommendations for
key roles in many organizations: strategy, innovation, R&D, and risk.
Each trend offers six important insights.
1. Years on the List 2. Key Insight 4. Disruptive Impact 6. Action Scale Informs Strategy
We track longitudinal tech and Concise description of this trend The implications of this trend on FTI’s analysis of what action your Strong evidence and data. Longer-
science trends. This measurement that can be easily understood and your business, government, or organization should take. Fields term uncertainties remain. Use it to
indicates how long we have repeated to others. society. include: inform your strategic planning.
followed the trend and its
progression. 3. Examples 5. Emerging Players Watch Closely Act Now
Real-world use cases, some of Individuals, research teams, Mounting evidence and data, but Ample evidence and data. This
which should be familiar to you. startups, and other organizations more maturity is needed. Use it to trend is already mature and
emerging in this space. inform your vision, planning, and requires action.
research.
04 © 2021 Future Today Institute00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Privacy and Security Macro Forces and Emerging Trends Scenarios Describe Plausible Outcomes You will find scenarios imagining future worlds as trends evolve and converge. Scenarios offer a fresh perspective on trends and often chal- lenge your deeply held beliefs. They prompt you to consider high-impact, high-uncertainty situations using signals available today. 1 1. Headline 2 A short description offering you a glimpse into future changes. 2. Temporal and Emotive Tags 3 A label explaining both when in the future this scenario is set and whether it is optimistic, neutral, pessimistic, or catastrophic. 3. Narrative The descriptive elements of our imagined world, including the developments leading us to this point in our future history. Scenario sources: The Future Today Institute uses a wide array of quali- tative and quantitative data to create our scenarios. Some of our typical sources include patent filings, academic preprint servers, archival re- search, policy briefings, conference papers, data sets, structured inter- views with experts, conversations with kids, critical design, and specula- tive fiction. 05 © 2021 Future Today Institute
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Privacy and Security
Privacy
+ COVID-19 accelerated the use of + 75% of businesses do not involve
biometric data collection sys- their boards of directors in cyber-
tems. security oversight.
+ Companies that allowed employ- + Cyberattacks cost the world
ees to work from home created economy an estimated $445
& Security
new privacy and cybersecurity billion, or almost 1% of global
vulnerabilities. income, according to the Center
for Strategic and International
+ The attack on the U.S. Capitol Studies.
led to an unprecedented amount
of cybersleuthing—everyday + Hackers increasingly look for sen-
Summary
people finding and posting the sitive intellectual property (busi-
identities of insurgents online. ness communications, vaccine
code, DNA records).
+ There was a dramatic increase
in Internet of Things scams and + Cybersecurity risk areas this year
attacks, as hackers took advan- include health care, pharmaceu-
tage of employees and students ticals, advanced materials and
working from their own devices manufacturing, retail, munici-
and home networks, which are palities, and military technology
rarely secure. suppliers.
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