A 10-Year Ride On The Solar Coaster - After a decade in print, we asked industry insiders to offer retrospective insights for our final magazine ...
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Volume 10, Number 9 ● October 2017 A 10-Year Ride On The Solar Coaster After a decade in print, we asked industry insiders to offer retrospective insights for our final magazine.
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6 R Features
PV Modules
6 Five Major Trends Of The Global PV
Module Market
An industry analyst explores the main factors that shaped the market
over the past decade and offers a future outlook.
California Market
10 A Look At California’s Modern Solar History
CALSEIA’s executive director discusses market progress and explains
that policy victories are hard won, even in the Golden State.
SEIA Perspective
14 What The Watt: Ten Years Of Solar Growing
And Growing Up
Two SEIA execs offer their lively perspectives on the U.S. industry and
the role of the nation’s largest solar trade group.
Project Financing
10 20 A Decade Of Evolution In U.S.
Project Financing
Experts outline how the various means of financing have changed
throughout the years and how future rulings might affect the industry.
Community Solar
24 The Emergence And Growth Of
Community Solar
A developer recounts community solar’s journey from a nascent
business model to one of the U.S. solar industry’s fastest-growing
segments.
Solar Funding
28 Ducking The Curves Of The Solar Industry
Roller Coaster
An industry expert provides an overview and insight into the many
ups and downs experienced over the past 10 years.
14 20
OCTOBER 2017 b Solar Industry 3
✹SunDial
Farewell To Print www.solarindustrymag.com
info@solarindustrymag.com
100 Willenbrock Road, Oxford,
CT 06478
Joseph Bebon Toll Free: (800) 325-6745
Phone: (203) 262-4670
Fax: (203) 262-4680
I
used to joke that the only change I like is the kind found underneath a couch cushion;
however, situational change can often present new opportunities and turn out to be for Michael BaTeS
the better. As you might know by now, this October issue is Solar Industry’s final print Publisher & Vice President
bates@solarindustrymag.com
magazine. We’ve NEW decided
& NOTEWORTHYto change with the times and, after a decade in print and online,
make the inevitable switch toneed
antoall-digital JoSePh BeBon
cut the line, they pay for that publication.
to the future development of solar. customers in Indiana and Michigan, Published by Zackin Publications
Editor
www.solarindustrymag.com
Michael Bates,connection.”
our publisher and this magazine’s first editor,
As DG solar continues recently
to penetrate, explained
has announced in to
its plans anbuild
an-and (203) 262-4670, ext. 221
info@solarindustrymag.com
Interesting times can be a curse as the need to handle overcapacity and operate five solar generation facili-
nouncement, “Although it is difficult
well as a blessing, however. Timto Lar-let go of something
intermittency will demand we workedtiessoas hard
sufficient to build,
a pilot project. me-
The company jbebon@solarindustrymag.com
Shipping Address:
dia is in a very different place than
rison, vice president at YingliitGreen
was 10storage
years ago. Since
resources to take up that time,
excess saysprint
this willcirculation
add another emission- has 100 Willenbrock Road, Oxford, CT 06478
BeTSy lillian
Energy Americas, said tariffs on Chi- demand and fill in when renewables free source of power to its genera- Mailing Address:
decreased, while digital readership
nese solar cells has boomed.”
are not only imposing lag behind. He added, “It’s
- Michael not ation
Puttré bad thing.
portfolio, which It’s simply
already includes Associate Editor CT 06722
P.O. Box 2180, Waterbury,
additional costs on PV generation, nuclear, wind and hydro. Toll Free: 800-325-6745
the way things have evolved.”
but also squelching innovation by If approved by the Indiana Utility aManda Fava
Phone: (203) 262-4670 • Fax: (203) 262-4680
Full disclosure: I’m research
reducing eatinganda development
heaping portion Washington of proverbial
Utilities Get crow Regulatory
as I write this. That’s
Commission, the Clean Editorial Assistant
budgets and preventing new tech- Energy Solar Pilot Project will have
because, not too long ago, I penned
nologies from reaching key markets,
an editorial
Energy opining
Storage about
Grants the importance of both
a combined generation capacity printof dawn
Paul Zackin Publisher
S. howe
pzackin@solarindustrymag.com
and online media. Bates inisn’t
particularly the U.S.lying, though.Three ThisWashington
is the digital age, and
utilities have about it’s 16 MW, fastproducing
and ever- energy Creative Director
“The irrational behavior [on tar- equivalent to powering more than
changing. Our team takes
iffs] has pride toinme,”the
been shocking fact been
Larri- that awarded $14.3 million in match-
we were printing
ing grants from the state’s Clean one of
2,500 the
homes last-remaining
for a year, the utility
Michael BateS Managing Editor
angel l. hernández
bates@solarindustrymag.com
monthly trade pubs in the
son said, solar
especially givenindustry,
the volumes but rather
Energy Fund thanto lead transition
energy storage to says.
a bi-monthly or quar- Graphic Artist
of PV products large Chinese manu- projects with ties to federally funded I&M’s Clean Energy Solar gen-
terly magazine - as many
facturers of our
represent. “It’scontemporaries
not a good research hadat the done - we’veofmade
U.S. Department erationa strategic
facilities willdecision
be located in
Michael Puttré Editor
different areas of the company’s ser-
Sandra Minck
(203) 262-4670, ext. 243
to skip ahead andideagoto100%kill thedigital.
supplier. You need Energy’s (DOE) Pacific Northwest
vice territory in the two states. Con- Production Coordinator
your supplier for the 25 years of the National Laboratory (PNNL). mputtre@solarindustrymag.com
“This team haswarranty.”
been generating strong, timely According content
to the forPNNL, antheonline audience
struction forscheduled
is tentatively a longto
Over and above the effect of re- three utility-led projects include the begin in early 2016, with completion daMaSe
BetSy lilliancaron
Editorial Assistants
time, and we willstrictive
continue that tradition,”
trade policies, Larrison said
wrote
following:
Bates. “Our resources are expanding rather
expected later that year. The utility Information
lauren tyler Systems Manager
than contracting.Chinese
We recently solar cellrelaunched
manufacturers our ■ flagship
Spokane-basedwebsite, Avistasolarindustry.news,
Utili- notes the $38 million along with
project would
have wrung about all of the cost out ties received $3.2 million. Its proj- result in a minimal impact on cus- cheryl SaMide
Dawn howe Creative Director
our email newsletter. If you’re a reader,
of their products, and those hop-
you can expect our coverage
ect includes installing a UniEnergy
to get
tomer better
rates of and
less than better.
1%. If Office Manager
you’re a marketer,ingyou can expect
for additional LCOEaefficiencies
quality, competitive
Technologies (UET) medium
flow batteryforinyourI&M messaging.”
operates 3,595 MW of DaMaSe caron Graphic Artists
will have to look elsewhere. Citing Pullman, Wash., to support Washing- coal-fired generation in Indiana, angel l. hernánDeZ
In other words, his the plan12isstraight
company’s to continue
quarters reporting daily (WSU)
ton State University’s newssmart and provide
2,110 MW just as many,
of nuclear generation if in adver tising Sales
not more, in-depth articles
of financial from
losses, he saidstaff and contributing
he could campus operations. authorsThe PNNL will online. We’llandkeep
Michigan 22 MWcovering
of hydro gen- roB
arlene SiMonelli
Sorrentino Advertising Coordinator
not imagine where such cost savings collaborate with WSU to develop eration in both states. The company
policy updates, new Account Executive
couldtechnologies,
come from on the cell project
produc- announcements,
a control strategy for industry
this project. trends and more.
also provides its customers with 250 SanDra Minck Production Coordinator
The 10-year success
tion front.of this magazine was, inis large
Avista part,in the
participating result MW
the Pacific ofI&M of purchased wind generation.
great advertisers, a rob@solarindustrymag.com
Nevertheless, he remains “very Northwest Smart Grid Demonstra- says it will also use the solar Phill legault Information Systems
(562) 431-1630
hard-working team and
bullish” myU.S.
on the predecessors,
market - particu- including
tion Project and Bates, Michael
previously receivedPuttré and Jessica
pilot project Lillian,to
as an opportunity Manager
larly the residential and commercial a DOE Smart Grid Investment Grant. study firsthand the various facets of
the latter of whom has graciously
sectors - which will be a core busi-
contributed her own write-up
■ Bellevue-based Puget Sound
on page 34 of this issue.
designing, constructing and operat- I cheryl SaMiDe Office Manager
have been privileged
ness fortoYingli
carry going the editor’s torch
forward. Energyfor(PSE)
almostreceivedtwo$3.8 years
million. nowing and look forward
a utility-scale solar facility.to
cording to the utility, being owner
Ac- Zackin
continuing my role duringAG,
Technologies publication’s Its
Stefan Rinck, CEO of Singulus
thea Germany-based project includes installing a lithi-
new,
um-ion exciting
battery. chapter.
As part of a previous and operator of the solar facilities
chriStina Stanevich
Publications
Marketing Coordinator
Furthermore, each
maker ofmagazine
PV productionwould’veequipment, been projectnearly
that wasempty if not
jointly funded by forwill
the helpful
enable contribu-
I&M to become proficient cheryl Botelho
Paul zackin Administration
pointed out during the panel discus- the utility, the Bonneville Power Ad- in operating solar generation and in-
tions from industry insiders.
sion that Suchforces
the same market working
that relationships
ministration, withand
Primus Power company
the execs,
tegrating organization
it reliably into the transmis- President
Advertising Sales
leaders, market analysts
impelled theand boomPR firmsPVhaveDOE,
in Chinese proven
the PNNL invaluable.
analyzed the costs sion grid.
Notably, one major bonus pzackin@solarindustrymag.com
Bill O’COnnOR
production and corresponding drop and benefits associated with install- (800) 325-6745, ext. 235
about an online platform
in module prices is thatwere it allows usingtoenergy
a “disaster” givestorage
contributors
at various siteslonger, more flexible dead- oconnor@solarindustrymag.com
lines in order to submit an
from the perspective article. I urge
of equipment within PSE’s
anyone service territory.
interested to please DOE
continue Offering $4B In out
reaching Member of
manufacturers. At the same time, he ■ Everett-based Snohomish Member of
and pitching storyforesees
ideasa new forwaveourof capital
digital publication.
invest- County Public Utility District was New Loan Guarantees
ment in PV manufacturing, particu- awarded $7.3 million. Its project The U.S. Department of Energy
Most importantly, you, our valued readers,
larly for wafer and cell manufacturers
have kept this magazine(DOE)
includes installing a UET flow bat-
successful for the past
has issued a loan guarantee
10 years! We greatly
in Taiwanappreciate
looking to supply yourtheinterest,
de- your
tery and readership
a lithium-ion battery. and
This your loyalty.
solicitation, making Amidas much ouras $4
mand for PV in Japan. project builds on experience gained, billion in loan guarantees available
move toward 100% digital, please ensure
At the top of the PV supply chain, you are signed up
as well as the equipment and tech-for our newsletter
for innovative and
renewable connect
energy and Solar Industry (USPS: 025-268 ISSN: 1942-
with us on TwitterTheresa
and Jester,
Facebook for the
CEO of Silicor Ma-latest updates.
nologies installed, with a DOE Smart energy-efficiency projects located in 213X) is published monthly by Zackin Publica-
terials Inc., a supplier of PV-grade Grid Investment Grant. the U.S. that avoid, reduce or seques-
Solar tions, Inc. Advertising, Editorial,
ISSN: 1942-Production and
As we reflect upon
silicon, said thereIndustry’s
is still room to10-year history,
According to thewe PNNL, thought
results it termight
greenhouse begases.interesting Solar Industry (USPS: 025-268
According to theitself,
DOE, this Circulation
213X) is publishedoffices
monthly arewith aat 100issue
special Willenbrock
in Road,
to let our final print
reduce magazine serve Jester
costs in raw materials. as a retrospective look at dem-
from these Washington-based how the industry,
licitation is intended to support
hasso- the fall by Zackin Publications, Inc. Advertising,
Oxford, CT 06478;
Editorial, Production (203)offices
and Circulation 262-4670.
are at Periodical
pointed to her firm’s plans to build a onstrations are expected to contrib-
evolved over the new
pastsilicon
decade.processingTherefore,
facility in Ice- this
uteOctober issuestorage
to national energy includes
efforts. several
technologies articles
that areexamin-
catalytic, rep-
100 Willenbrock Road, Oxford, CT 06478; (203)
postage paid atpostage
262-4670. Periodical Shelton, CT
paid at and additional
Seymour, CT mailing
land as evidenceof thatdifferent
the global solar licable and market-ready. Although and additional
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Publications
ing the history and future
marketplace continues to evolve and
solar segments. Unsurprisingly, some may illustrate
any project that meets the appropri-
cations Mail Agreement #40612608. Return unde-
#40612608.
liverable CanadianReturn
addresses toundeliverable
IMEX Global Canadian
the ups and downs offerof the so-called “solar coaster,”
opportunities. Indiana Michigana tumultuous Powerrideate that continues
requirements to tothis
is eligible apply, Solutions, P.O. Box 25542, London, ON N6C 6B2.
addresses toperIMEX
Subscription: $48 Global Solutions,
year. POSTMASTER: Send P.O. Box
Echoing a theme from an earlier the department has identified five
day. In the past, Intersolar
we’ve covered everything
panel, CAISO’s Berber-
from
Banks trade
On Solarwars, bankruptcieskey technology areas of interest:to
and scandals, ad-
address changes to: Solar Industry, P.O. Box 2180,
25542, London, ON N6C 6B2. Subscription: $48
Waterbury, CT 06722-2180. Copyright © 2014 by
landmark laws, business triumphs
ich said the development and record
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Michigan Power (I&M), With yet vanced another trade
grid integration andcase
storage; per year.
Zackin POSTMASTER:
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Inc. All rights reserved; no changes to:
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accessible energy storage is critical drop-in biofuels; waste-to-energy; Solar
publisher. Industry, 100 Willenbrock Road, Oxford,
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4 Solar Industry b AUGUST 2014
utility serving more than 582,000
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hard to keep you informed of each major drop and rise on the journey toward not only solar tions, Inc. All rights reserved; no reproduction
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4 Solar Industry b OCTOBER 2017
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R PV Modules
Five Major Trends
Of The Global
PV Module Market
An industry analyst explores the main
factors that shaped the market over the
past decade and offers a future outlook.
by Edurne Zoco
I
started working as a solar industry analyst 10 years This dominance at the upstream level has been ac-
ago, and over the last decade, I have been a direct companied by an astonishing growth of installations in
witness of the industry’s development and expan- China, making it the largest solar PV market. To illus-
sion. The growth has been extraordinary and sur- trate, in 2007, PV installations in China practically did
passed the most optimistic forecasts, including my own! not exist, with the exception of some isolated systems
Back in 2007, less than 5 GW was installed glob- mostly in Western Chinese provinces. This year, IHS
ally; last year, it was almost 78 GW. At IHS Markit, we Markit predicts that installations in China will exceed
are currently forecasting that 90 GW of solar energy will be 45 GW, to be at least 50% of global installations.
installed in 2017, and we could even reach the magic 100 GW
threshold by next year, thus representing 20x growth within 2. Scale and cost reduction have made solar the most afford-
one decade. able source of energy in some regions.
Because the solar industry is remarkably dynamic, it would The growth of solar demand during the last decade has al-
be impossible to summarize in 2,000 or so words everything lowed economies of scale to help reduce the production costs
that has happened in the last 10 years - in fact, we would likely of solar modules, with lower prices generating additional
need the entire October edition just to cover what has hap- demand. In quantitative terms, the annual module manufac-
pened since the beginning of this year. Therefore, this article turing capacity has multiplied by a factor of 20 since 2007 to
is intended to be a succinct overview of what, in my view, have respond to the explosion of demand.
been the five major trends shaping the global PV module
market since 2007 to bring it to its current state. China vs. Non-China Capacity In 2010 vs. 2016
100%
1. China runs the solar show. 90%
In the last 10 years, global PV manufacturing has 80%
moved from Western countries and Japan to China: 70%
Chinese manufacturers have become the indisputable 60%
50%
leaders of most nodes of the supply chain. Of the top 10
40%
module producers in 2016, seven were Chinese. For cell 30%
production, five of the top 10 were Chinese; for wafers, 20%
all 10 were Chinese. For polysilicon, there were five. His- 10%
torically, the Chinese presence in polysilicon production 0%
Polysilicon Wafer Cell c-Si Module
had been less. However, the Chinese share has been rap-
China Non-China
idly growing since 2014 and is expected to reach 53% of
total polysilicon capacity by the end of 2017. Source: IHS Markit
6 Solar Industry b OCTOBER 2017
C-Si module manufacturing capacity grew from 28.7 GW in market with different demand levels, product availability, and
2010 to 116.4 GW in 2017. pricing inside and outside China.
During this period, the manufacturing costs for all players
have declined significantly. This is mainly due to efficiencies of 4. Business models: from vertical integration to increased
production, product and material innovations, and economies specialization.
of scale. Automation of process technologies has increased Although Chinese suppliers are expected to continue to
the throughput of the lines within the factory, allowing more dominate solar module production, the industrial landscape
panels to be produced per year. On the material side, both is not set in stone. The business model of vertical integration,
the silicon and consumables have been reduced or lower-cost from wafer, to cells, to modules, was of great value in the early
materials have been substituted to cut the material cost. In- stages of the solar industry to balance fluctuating demand and
cremental technology improvements have been applied to the supply and to reduce costs quickly through fully controlled in-
contact points on the cells or the lamination patterns on the house production.
modules to increase their performance. The average efficiency Asian companies that followed this business model (e.g.,
of commercial silicon modules has improved in the last 10 JinkoSolar, Trina Solar, Canadian Solar and Hanwha Q CELLS)
years by about 0.3 percentage points per year. All in all, in this are now among the largest module makers. Yet, as the industry
very competitive environment, module production costs have matures, a split-up into specialized areas is more likely to lever-
declined by more than 70% in just the last six years. age scale and spend less capital; there have been movements in
this area toward more outsourcing of the nodes that are most
3. Policy changes, trade disputes and legal barriers continue upstream (polysilicon, ingots, wafers) and a greater focus on in-
shaping the PV module industry. ternal expansion of both cell and module production capacity.
The solar power industry has required, since its beginning, Moreover, the solar market offers long-term growth, which
different forms of government support (such as feed-in tariffs makes it interesting for investment. Despite the intense com-
or investment tax credits) to compete increasingly against con- petition, new investors and business models might appear, and
ventional energy sources. To date, solar industry development the list of top 10 module suppliers can continue to change as it
is still greatly influenced by policy and economic regulations. has done so for the last 10 years.
2017 is a very clear example of how much policy changes, trade
disputes and legal barriers continue to affect the development 5. The continuous search for high-efficiency modules.
of the global solar industry. At the technology level, c-Si modules have been confirmed as
Trade disputes and legal barriers have had a great impact on the main technology. While thin-film accounted for almost 10%
the module manufacturing industry in the last two years after of the total production market in 2007, it is forecast to reach on-
the U.S. followed Europe in imposing import duties to cells ly 6% in 2017. The major reason for this decline was the reduc-
and modules manufactured in China and, since 2015, extended tion of c-Si production costs in the last decade at the same time
these import duties to Taiwan. Of the top 10 module manu- as cell and module efficiencies were quickly ramped up, which
facturers by shipment, eight are Chinese; to serve the U.S. and made c-Si the technology choice for most installation segments.
Within c-Si technology, Al-BSF cells have dominat-
Crystalline Average Blended Module Production Costs ed the PV cell market for the last decade. IHS Markit
In 2010 vs. 2016 forecasts that this technology will retain its leadership
1.60 until 2020 because of its track record and lower pro-
1.40 duction cost. However, it is facing increasing compe-
tition from other higher-efficiency cell technologies
1.20
(e.g., PERC, HJT or IBC) because the module industry
1.00
is changing to meet the increasing demand for prod-
($/W)
0.80
ucts of higher efficiency. Thus, most expansion of cell
0.60 production capacity is for high-efficiency products.
0.40 IHS Markit forecasts that more than 50% of new ca-
0.20 pacity installed in 2017 will be high-efficiency (PERC
0.00 and n-type) technology. PERC cell production capac-
2010 2016 ity, which was only 5 GW in 2015, more than doubled
Source: IHS Markit
in 2016 to reach 11 GW, and it is projected to increase
to 46% of global cell capacity in 2020.
Europe, they needed to have access to cell capacity and produc- Another important trend is the rise of monocrystalline
tion outside of China. It can be affirmed that the major trigger technology as suppliers seek higher efficiencies in order to dif-
on building more than 13 GW of cell capacity by the end of ferentiate themselves. IHS Markit forecasts that monocrystal-
2016 in Southeast Asian countries was the presence of continu- line technology will account for almost 40% of manufacturing
ing trade disputes. capacity by 2020, from 30% in 2010.
Not only module and cell manufacturers have been affected
by these regulations. The polysilicon market has been equally Future outlook: What is next?
affected by existing duties on polysilicon imports to the Chi- Uncertainty continues to be the norm. After many years,
nese market, which has created a distorted and dual polysilicon one of the constants of the solar industry is that regardless of
OCTOBER 2017 b Solar Industry 7
R PV Modules
how mature it becomes, the level of instability and the lack of proposed by co-petitioner Suniva, IHS Markit estimates that
visibility remain high because of policy changes and big trade PV demand in the U.S. could shrink up to 60% for the 2018-
disputes that are not anticipated. They still have a very big im- 2021 period in comparison to its current forecast.
pact on supply and demand. As of press time, India, the third-largest solar market, is
In 2017, the market continues with antidumping and also slated to decide whether to include additional taxes for
countervailing duties for Chinese and Taiwanese cell and imported solar components; there, modules manufactured in
module imports in Europe and the U.S., with a minimum China account for more than 70% of the total installations.
import price, and duties in China for polysilicon imports. Supply chain consolidation will be limited. Although
Furthermore, there is a new and ongoing trade case in the thin-film supply has been consolidated in a few large players,
U.S., which could end up with additional import duties being c-Si supply (despite some important bankruptcies and com-
implemented in the U.S. market. panies exiting the industry) has remained largely unconsoli-
On Sept. 22, the U.S. International Trade Commission dated. Because a large majority of manufacturing is based in
ruled that a surge of imports did, indeed, cause injury to the China and the current high level of installation is projected to
domestic module manufacturing industry. Now, the com- continue in the coming years, it is difficult to foresee any mas-
mission is moving forward to the remedy stage of the in- sive consolidation. As long as the Chinese market continues
vestigation and will ultimately make its recommendation at this level of installation (at least 45 GW forecast in 2017),
to President Donald Trump in November. In the worst-case consolidation of the Chinese manufacturing industry will be
scenario of a full implementation of the measures initially rather limited.
Module and other system component
costs will continue to decline, making
solar more attractive in new markets.
SINCE 1987
Module manufacturers continue to look
for innovative ways to reduce their costs
and are increasingly focused on improving
their cell-to-module conversion rate. Most
companies are now starting production of
half-cell monocrystalline modules (both
p-type and PERC) and modules with more
busbars, which can increase module output
by 10-15 W without incurring higher pro-
duction costs on a per-watt basis.
Total module costs for industry lead-
ers are forecast to continue to decline in
2018 after a very exceptional second half
Since 1987 Sun Xtender® has provided of 2017, when current high polysilicon
cutting-edge and continuously improved prices are slowing down the original plans
upon AGM batteries for energy storage. of module manufacturers to reduce costs
Sun Xtender’s Advanced Deep Cycle to around $0.30/W for best-in-class p-type
modules by year-end.
Technology incorporates the most IHS Markit is currently forecasting at
unique & proprietary features to extend least 112 GW of annual installations by
battery life & reduce maintenance. 2020. However, it should not come as a big
shock if solar demand growth continues
• Grid Tied or Off Grid Systems to surprise manufacturers, developers and
analysts - all of whom have consistently
• Robust Plate Construction underestimated demand, which will con-
• Positive Active Material Mix tinue double-digit annual growth over the
next 10 years. As long as the 80% of solar
• Intercell Connections with Substantial Strapping installations remains in a handful of coun-
• Proprietary PolyGuard® Separator tries - China, the U.S., India and Japan
- sudden policy changes and the creation
• 100% Recyclable & Ship Hazmat exempt or elimination of commercial barriers will
continue to make producing precise long-
...the heart of your renewable energy system
term PV forecasts one of the most chal-
lenging (but most interesting) jobs! S
MANUFACTURED BY CONCORDE BATTERY CORPORATION
Edurne Zoco is research director of solar and
SUNXTENDER.COM | 626.813.1234 | 1.800.757.0303 | ISO 9001 + AS9100 energy storage at IHS Markit.
8 auguSt 2017
Solar Industry b OCTOBER 2017
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R California Market
CALSEIA recently gathered
approximately 150 solar
and energy storage
workers from 80
businesses at the California
state capitol to show
support for local policies.
Photo courtesy of CALSEIA
A Look At California’s
Modern Solar History
CALSEIA’s executive director some important players, of course - SunPower, AstroPower and
PowerLight, to name a few, as well as many of the founding
discusses market progress and members of the California Solar Energy Industries Associa-
explains that policy victories are hard tion (CALSEIA) that make up the backbone of the local solar
industry.
won, even in the Golden State. The pioneers of the PV industry, who will gather one last
time for the Third and Final Solar Pioneer Party in Mendocino
by Bernadette Del Chiaro County in November, started tinkering with PV and invent-
ing the industry in the backwoods of northern California in
A
s Solar Industry changes from print to online-only, the late ’70s. And for this, we are all forever grateful. But the
I think about other changes to our industry over the engines of commerce that put solar into the hands of everyday
years. California consumers did not get started in earnest until 2002.
Not long ago, most of this did not exist. And, if we aren’t In 2002, everything changed. In fact, that year marked the
careful, if we don’t aggressively and collectively invest in public dawn of the modern era of the California solar industry. What
policy to support the continued growth of local solar and stor- happened in 2002 was that policymakers were spurred into
age, much of it could be taken away. Yes, even in California. action by the Enron-made electricity crisis of 2000/2001. Due
Back in 2002, when I first started working on solar policy solely to the criminal actions of manipulative and monopo-
in Sacramento, most of the big names in the industry today listic energy companies, California businesses, consumers and
were not even a glimmer in the entrepreneurial eye. There were cities lost billions of dollars, suffered great social and political
10 Solar Industry b OCTOBER 2017upheaval (for example, Gov. Gray Davis lost electrician down in San Diego pitching solar to his employers
his job), and voters were simultaneously an- at the time, but they didn’t want to touch it, and Elon Musk had
gry and fearful that it could happen again - only just become a U.S. citizen. So much has changed.
two powerful motivators of political action. Motivated by economics and energy independence, consum-
During this time, not only were voters ers doubled their consumption of local solar year over year,
and politicians motivated to make change, and by 2006, when S.B.1 passed, there was roughly 300 MW
but also the utilities had yet to invent the installed. By the beginning of 2008, when Solar Industry pub-
concept of “cost shifting” - the notion that lished its first print edition, local solar had become a 500 MW
all local solar is an inherent burden on oth- market with a healthy growth trajectory, thanks to the certainty
er ratepayers. Instead, the best arguments provided by state and federal policy, including the investment
they had at the time were that solar was too tax credit, as well as a promising international market.
expensive and unreliable. Did everyone in the solar industry like the idea of creating
What’s more, during this time, most a 10-year-long incentive program via S.B.1? No! There was, in
policymakers understood that electricity, fact, dissent among industry players. Some wanted to simply
an increasingly critical commodity, was let the market grow slowly so as to not invite too much com-
best generated and controlled locally (as petition. Some thought growth-oriented international markets
opposed to in corporate board rooms of would lower hardware and installation costs here in California
profit-minded companies) and that em- without any further intervention at the local level. Some sim-
powering citizens to own their own energy, ply didn’t like government involvement at all.
creating competition in the marketplace, And then there were the real opponents to the idea and to
would help prevent future Enrons from solar and storage, in general: the utilities and their local In-
repeating the sins of the past. ternational Brotherhood of Electrical Workers (IBEW) union.
And so, California policymakers began a Packing the same one-two punch that this duo wields today,
new era of embracing self-generation and this unified force single-handedly killed S.B.1’s predecessor
alternative energy. Individuals, local govern- two years in a row. These powerful defeats were not due to
ments, and businesses that invested in their clever arguments against solar, but rather sheer political might.
own solar systems were heroes and warriors, At midnight on the last day of the 2005 legislative session,
“sticking it to the Enron-man,” and help- frustrated and exhausted from nine months of campaigning,
ing everyone avoid another blackout. These I was quoted in the media as saying, “Not air pollution, nor
early adopters were not burdens on society, blackouts, nor soaring energy costs were enough to elevate the
as utilities today like to characterize it. The Cali- Million Solar Roofs bill above the politics of the day.” Sound
fornia Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) even familiar? Just replace “air pollution” with “climate change” and
published a paper showing that for every dollar invested “blackouts” with “Aliso Canyon,” and you have a ready-made
in local solar, three ratepayer dollars were saved in fuel costs quote for the energy storage bills that failed to, in the case of
alone. That’s a pretty good return on investment for the rate- S.B.700, even get a hearing in the state assembly this year.
payer. Environmental groups, including my organization at the In fact, back in 2005, there was such stalemate in Sacramen-
time, Environment California, saw opportunity to make Cali- to that then-Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger had to circumvent
fornia a solar leader, pushing for big, concrete policy ideas. those intractable politics and direct the CPUC to create the
Thus, in the four years that followed the electricity crisis, multibillion-dollar incentive program on its own.
California passed several landmark bills, including the first re- After this move, legislation was still needed to expand net
newable portfolio standard (S.B.1078), set at 20% by 2017, and metering, mandate similar programs at the publicly owned
the first comprehensive local solar policy (S.B.1), also known utilities, and jump-start solar on new home construction, but
as the Million Solar Roofs Initiative, expanding net metering the most controversial part of the bill - the money - was de-
and solidifying a 10-year, $3 billion incentive program. (The fanged by the CPUC pre-emptive action, and S.B.1 sailed to the
first legislation authorizing Community Choice Aggregation governor’s desk relatively easily in 2006, the same year A.B.32,
was also passed during this post-Enron era via A.B.117 by As- the well-known climate change law, passed.
semblymember Carole Migden, and in Interestingly, despite all of the excite-
2007 - riding the heels of this momen- ment over solar energy, it took another
tum - we were able to pass A.B.1470 by six years for the utility-scale solar market
now-U.S. Rep. Jared Huffman to give to catch up and surpass the local solar
continued life to the solar heating and market. In 2013 - two years after the state
cooling industry.) passed its third iteration of the renewable
It is hard to imagine today, but at the portfolio standard, upping the mandate
time of the electricity crisis, there were to 33% by 2020 - California saw utility-
only 20 MW of local solar electric systems procured solar go from 500 MW to 3,000
on roughly 6,000 rooftops, as well as only Del Chiaro standing next to then-Gov. MW nearly overnight.
one or two experimental solar thermal Arnold Schwarzenegger at the official S.B.1 Today, California policymakers still
plants in the desert. Daniel Sullivan of bill signing ceremony in downtown Los hold the key to the solar industry’s fu-
Sullivan Solar Power was a journeyman Angeles. Photo courtesy of Environment California ture. A few short years from now, thanks
OCTOBER 2017 b Solar Industry 11R California Market
to changing time-of-use (TOU) rate structures and net meter- expecting continued and sustainable growth, free of damaging
ing successor programs, it will be nearly impossible to install a fits and starts and commensurate with what California has come
solar electric system without an accompanying energy storage to expect of its solar market? That seems like a heavier lift than a
device. Yet, the number of storage devices sold in California to- market based on “preppers,” “techies,” and C&I demand charge
day matches that of the solar market circa 2004. We have a long arbitrageurs can sustain.
way to go on storage to marry it with solar cost-effectively for a The fact is that California’s solar market grew from 500
mainstream market. MW to 5,000 MW in 10 years. It was built on a consumer base
This fact bears repeating: Local energy storage today is (650,000 strong) much deeper and broader than blackout- and
where solar was in 2004. We have a long way to go. demand-charge-triage seekers. My favorite fact and a testa-
A critical question we must ask ourselves now is whether ment to the maturity of the market is that there are twice as
the solar and storage industry, in just a few short years, will be many people with a solar system in oil-rich and conservative
able to lower prices, achieve economies of scale in both pro- Bakersfield than in liberal, tech- and eco-friendly San Fran-
duction and installation, and realize the same hand-over-fist cisco. And, although we are not yet at a million solar roofs (let’s
growth that solar enjoyed during the previous decade without hurry up and get there, already!), we are on pace to surpass
something akin to S.B.1 for storage. History would suggest cer- three-quarters of a million consumers with their own solar
tainty and market rules are needed. And, besides, that’s a lot to systems, totaling nearly 7 GW, in the next 12 months. None of
gamble. this would have happened without clear, intentional, long-term
Let’s be honest with ourselves. It isn’t hard to envision growth public policy initiatives.
when the storage market is a mere 100 MW per year. But And what about our opponents? Well, some things never
change. The utilities and their affiliated
IBEW locals are once again leading the
anti-local storage charge, claiming that
they can do a better job building Califor-
nia’s modern electricity infrastructure and
should, in fact, own and install everything
through legislative fiat. Earlier this year,
they killed S.B.700 and A.B.1030 - bills
Solar solutions designed that would have guaranteed California
could build a mainstream local storage
specifically for Standing market, thereby addressing the duck curve
SeamMetal and giving consumers TOU rate relief.
As I write this article, CALSEIA is pre-
Roofs. SSMR CLAMP & SOLAR KIT
paring to celebrate 40 years of service to
this industry. What the next 40 years have
in store is anyone’s guess, but this brief
era of consumer-driven local solar is but a
blip in our collective energy history. Noth-
ing should ever be taken for granted, espe-
cially in the dog-eat-dog world of energy
markets and the special-interest-driven
world of politics.
We’ve come a long way since 2002, and
igne d fo r A rc hitects we have a long way to go to reach true
Des on tractors
tu re d fo r C market saturation. Congratulations to
Manufac st allers
r In
KEY BENEFITS: in gs fo Solar Industry for helping cover this jour-
Labor Sav ney over the past 10 years. Here’s to anoth-
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all of its ups and downs, twists and turns.
Custom End Supports to finish out the job.
There is one thing that is certain: None of
Rigorous 3rd party testing ensures quality and performance. us would be doing this if the future didn’t
Installs in a fraction of the time due to non-rail system design. look bright for solar and energy storage. S
Instant support by Certified staff and in-house engineering services available.
Manufactured in the US - readily available! Bernadette Del Chiaro is the executive director
of CALSEIA, the largest solar and storage busi-
87 Spring Lane Plainville, CT 06062 ness group in California. Prior to joining
by
P: 860.351.0686 F: 860.351.0689 CALSEIA in 2013, she served for over 10 years as
the energy program director for Environment
California, the sponsoring organization of the
landmark California laws S.B.1 and A.B.1470.
12 Solar Industry b OCTOBER 2017MSE PERC 60 AC
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missionsolar.com/our-quality-standards
info@missionsolar.comR SEIA Perspective
What The Watt:
Ten Years Of Solar Growing
And Growing Up
Two SEIA execs offer their lively perspectives on the U.S. industry
and the role of the nation’s largest solar trade group.
by Katherine Gensler & Justin Baca
W
ay back when the organi- This combination of new profes-
zation had a website that sionals, new technology and rapidly
looked like it was created increasing volume made for an excit-
by a high-schooler with a copy of ing, albeit sometimes rocky, start to
Dreamweaver, 2008, we both started our solar careers.
working at the Solar Energy Indus- Yet here we are in 2017, the year
tries Association (SEIA): Katherine after adding 15,000 MW-DC of PV,
in February and Justin in July. with solar being the single-largest
The U.S. industry was still small but starting to pick up source of new generating capacity in the country. Solar energy
steam, as entrepreneurs took notice of the 30% federal invest- now supplies more than 10% of California’s electric consump-
ment tax credit (ITC) enacted as part of the Energy Policy Act tion and about 1.5% of our nation’s electricity. By 2020, that
of 2005, the California Solar Initiative, and the first compliance percentage is expected to soar to 3.5%. To put that in context,
years for key states’ renewable portfolio standards. that’s an increase of more than 3,000% in just a decade.
The future looked bright for solar; SEIA soon upgraded to So, how did we get here? Well, to start, this industry is
a new, professional website... and then the economy tanked. fiercely competitive. While solar companies clearly compete
While this caused a bit of a dark cloud over the industry, a among each other, increasingly, the industry realizes that its
silver lining remained. The Emergency Economic Stabiliza- future lies in the larger electricity market and competing with
tion Act extended the ITC for eight years, and thus, by October incumbent electricity technologies. And, there, the competi-
2008, we had completed our first run on the “solar coaster.” tion is even tougher. We’ve seen the carnage as solar companies
Just to be clear, SEIA started 43 years ago, and we are sure test different business models or technologies, but the com-
those who preceded us had their own runs on the older panies that thrive define the industry. As solar costs continue
clackety-clack solar coasters of their time, but in recognition to decline, those incumbent electricity technologies are taking
of the 10-year run of the print edition of Solar Industry maga- increasing notice of this once-scrappy, now-formidable com-
zine, we wanted to take a trip back in time over the last decade. petitor: solar energy.
Many in the industry lament the frequent ups and downs At each stage of competition, the industry has found areas
of the solar market, but each dip, turn and climb has been a of common interest, ways to promote a rising tide that lifts all
learning and growing experience for our industry and for the boats. The work SEIA has done has helped advance the entire
policymakers who regulate it. industry, and we are proud of that.
In 2008, many in the industry came from backgrounds in It’s impossible to rattle off every accomplishment in one
technology, finance and construction (and that’s still the case article, but some of the highlights over this last decade include
today), but relatively few were steeped in the arcane details of the following:
highly regulated electricity markets. And the industry was grow- • Multiple extensions of the solar ITC and the establishment
ing so quickly that, mathematically, it was impossible for most of a commence-construction provision;
people to have more than one or two years of solar experience. • The wide expansion of state-level policies, such as net
Solar was new to policymakers, too. Most places just hadn’t metering and renewable portfolio standards, that promote in-
seen much of it yet. The U.S. added 350 MW-DC of solar ca- creased solar deployment;
pacity in 2008 and supplied less than one-tenth of 1% of U.S. • The establishment of a consumer-protection education
electricity. campaign;
OCTOBER 2017 b Solar Industry 15R SEIA Perspective
Yearly U.S. Solar Installations
16,000
14,000
Yearly Installed Solar Capacity (MW)
12,000
ITC Extended
10,000
8,000
ITC Extended
6,000
ITC Extended &
ITC Created Expanded
4,000
2,000
0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Residential (PV) Non-Residential (PV) Utility (PV) Concentrating Solar Power (CSP)
Source: SEIA/GTM Research U.S. Solar Market Insight
• The creation of a national PV recycling program; strong public support for the expansion of solar energy - and
• The launch of a Women’s Empowerment Committee and the best part is that’s across party lines. Solar is not a partisan
the creation of a diversity initiative focused on making sure technology.
our industry and our customer base are reflective of the com- That has become exceptionally clear with this trade case, in
munities we serve; and which a coalition of workers and groups, including utilities, the
• Numerous events, including Solar Power International, Heritage Foundation and ALEC, has joined our side in fighting
which have grown to become the gold standard for solar this fight, and we’re not surprised. We believe that bestowing
networking. trade relief upon two foreign-owned companies to the detri-
Although that’s an impressive - albeit not comprehensive ment of the rest of the industry is not only unwise, it’s un-
- list, we’re not unrolling our sleeves just warranted. Furthermore, although we hope
We’re not
yet. As everyone reading this magazine we’re successful in reducing the harm these
knows, SEIA is currently the lead oppo- companies are threatening to cause the solar
nent in the Section 201 trade case. While industry, we know this unified front is the
we were disappointed in the U.S. Interna-
tional Trade Commission’s vote on injury
unrolling our best counterattack.
History has shown us that working to-
on Sept. 22, as an organization, we remain
undeterred.
sleeves just gether strengthens the industry as a whole,
in addition to individual companies and
We’re fighting on behalf of tens of
thousands of American solar workers yet. employees. The success of SEIA, a member-
based organization, is measured on the
whose jobs are at risk if this petition pre- collective success of the companies we rep-
vails. Tariffs could have far-reaching and resent. In our time at SEIA, it has become
devastating impacts on our industry, and we remain steadfast clear that those who engage in industry development have the
in our campaign to continue the growth of solar and solar jobs best insight into the mechanics of the industry; they learn the
here in America. risks and see the opportunities before the rest.
When we first started at SEIA, the solar industry employed The both of us find it hard to believe it has been almost 10
about 36,000 workers. Now, we’re at more than 260,000, with years. We’ve had a front-row seat to one of the fastest-growing
one of every 50 new jobs created here in America in 2016 a so- industries in America, and we can say with certainty that the
lar job. As the head of SEIA’s research team, Justin has tracked view lives up to the hype. So, here’s to another decade, one
the market closely over the last decade and seen person- we hope will be filled with continued growth, prosperity, and
ally how solar growth translates into real-life impacts. When a fewer solar coaster dips and turns. S
state’s solar market grows, so do the jobs and so do the invest-
ment dollars.
Meanwhile, from her job working in government affairs, Katherine Gensler is SEIA’s director of government affairs, and Justin
Katherine has seen solar’s popularity soar. Poll after poll shows Baca is SEIA’s vice president of markets and research.
16 Solar Industry b OCTOBER 2017Are you getting
the best price on
equipment for
your PV project?
Aten Solar is your procurement broker that supplies
modules and balance of systems to projects
worldwide.
We go to market with two business models:
Surplus Procurement and Volume Pricing.
Surplus Procurement is based on our liquidation of what we call “stranded” or “surplus”
solar module inventories held by project developers, warehouses, distributors and
EPCs. In the past two years, Aten Solar has liquidated more than 60 MW's of such solar
modules, saving current solar projects an estimated $5,000,000 in module costs.
Although new surplus inventories keep coming to us, we have added a second dimension
to our business: Volume Pricing. By combining orders from our strong customer base,
we are able to negotiate very attractive pricing and terms with a variety of solar module
manufacturers. We promote Bloomberg Tier I modules that can be imported tariff-free
into the USA.
Our clients receive valuable services, relieve their own people of the burden of
procurement, and know that they are getting the best value.
Conclusion: Aten Solar - Two words to
remember when procuring equipment
for your solar project.
49 Cliffwood Ave., Cliffwood, NJ 07721 USA | Phone: (732) 810-1983 • (800) 310-7271
E-mail: customerservice@atensolar.com | Website: atensolar.comTHE EVOLUTION OF RESIDENTIAL
ROOF FLASHING
ALUMINUM FLASHING
ELEVATED FLASHING
WHAT IS ALUMINUM
FLASHING?
WHAT IS ELEVATED
•Traditional flashing system for FLASHING?
residential roofs
•Made of Aluminum
•Comprised of a sheet of Aluminum
•Features a raised section above
that is shaped to fit around a piece the roof penetration, giving it an
of mounting hardware extra level of protection
HOW DOES IT WORK?
HOW DOES IT WORK?
•Shingles are separated and the Aluminum Flashing is inserted
underneath the Shingles •Shingles are separated and the Elevated Flashing is inserted
underneath the Shingles
•Keeps water away from roof penetrations by redirecting water
•Protects the roof penetration by using gravity to keep water from
runoff on pitched roofs flowing over the roof penetration
•Secured to the roof by the roofing material or by nailing the •Secured to the roof by the roofing material or by nailing the flashing
flashing to the roof, creating more roof penetrations to the roof, creating more roof penetrations
1900’s 2012
1980’s 2008
GALVANIZED FLASHING RUBBER BUSHED FLASHING
WHAT IS GALVANIZED FLASHING? WHAT IS RUBBER BUSHED
•Comprised of Galvanized Steel instead of FLASHING?
Aluminum •Comprised of two pieces - Rubber
•Provides more rigidity than Aluminum, making EPDM & Aluminum Flashing
it hard to bend or misshape •Rubber Bushing is inserted into an
•Attractive for higher wind areas becuase it is opening of the Aluminum Flashing
easier handle while on the roof where the roof penetration is made
•Galvanized coating provides a protective layer of zinc, giving it
extra rust-resistant protection
HOW DOES IT WORK?
HOW DOES IT WORK? •Shingles are separated and the Rubber Bushed Flashing is inserted
underneath the Shingles
•Shingles are separated and the Galvanized Flashing is inserted •Rubber Bushing is compressed to create a watertight seal between
underneath the Shingles the mount and flashing
•Keeps water away from roof penetrations by redirecting water •Secured to the roof by the roofing material or by nailing the
runoff on pitched roofs Flashing to the roof, creating more roof penetrations
•Secured to the roof by the roofing material or by nailing the
flashing to the roof, creating more roof penetrationsFlashing is a necessary component of residential rooftop solar. When a penetration is made on
residential rooftops, solar installers must seal the hole to protect against water leakage. This
sealing method is referred to as flashing. Like many other aspects of the solar industry,
technological advancements have spurred the creation of better, leak-proof flashing solutions to
solve installers’ problems.
MICROFLASHING
WHAT IS MICROFLASHING?
•Smaller than traditional flashing
•Stainless Steel Backed EPDM compression
washer & hangar bolt
•Collar on the bolt compresses the Microflashing,
creating a watertight seal
•Reduces installation time and cost without
sacrificing security
HOW DOES IT WORK?
•Placed directly over the Shingles & driven into the joist
TODAY •No lifting and removing nails from underneath the Shingles, which can
void the roof warranty
•EPDM chemically bonds with the Asphalt Shingles, adding an additional
layer of protection against leaks.
www.solarroof hook .com
8 4 4 . 6 71 . 6 0 4 5R Project Financing
A Decade Of Evolution
In U.S. Project Financing
T
he solar industry has undergone a tremendous an investment bank looking for financing,
evolution in the course of the last decade. Below we the call was directed to the venture capital
outline some of the more notable developments, desk.
with a focus on project financing in the U.S. Today, the partnership flip has far sur-
In 2007, the largest solar photovoltaic project in passed the sale-leaseback in use in the U.S.
the world was an 11 MW project in Portugal, called Serpa, that solar industry. In addition, there are now
cost EUR 58 million to build. Today, the largest solar PV proj- two distinct partnership flip structures
ect in the world is Tengger Desert Solar Park in China and is for solar: internal rate of return-based
1,500 MW, or more than 100 times the capacity of Serpa, and flips that resemble those used by the wind
the cost of building a solar project is a fraction of what it was a industry and time-based flips. In addi-
decade ago. tion, there are niche structures like pass-
In 2007, manufacturers of thin-film solar and manufac- through leases and inverted leases, and
turers of crystalline silicon solar were battling to see which in 2007, those had not yet migrated on a
would be the predominant technology. Today, there are more meaningful level to solar from the historic
manufacturers of crystalline modules than thin film and more tax credit industry.
projects using crystalline modules than thin film; however, The investment tax credit (ITC) for
First Solar appears to have found success with rigid thin-film which solar projects qualify has also
modules. changed in the last decade. In 2007, the
ITC was still an alternative minimum
tax “preference.” That meant companies
Experts outline how the various subject to the “AMT” had to carry the
means of financing have credit forward until the company gener-
ated enough taxable income relative to
changed throughout the years its tax attributes to exit AMT. The AMT
and how future rulings might problem was fixed by the Emergency Eco-
nomic Stabilization Act of 2008. This leg-
affect the industry. islation made solar more attractive to tax
equity investors with other significant tax attributes on their
tax returns.
by David Burton, Nadav Klugman & Jeffrey Davis Further, in 2007, if you proposed that Congress should al-
low solar project owners to trade a project’s ITC for an equal
In 2007, terms like “resi,” “C&I,” “DG” and “community so- cash payment from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, your
lar,” which are now ubiquitous in our industry, were unknown knowledge of the political landscape of Washington would
to most energy financiers. have been seriously questioned. In response to the financial
Furthermore, the U.S. tax equity market for solar in 2007 was crisis, that is what Congress did with the Section 1603 cash
nascent at best. The leading structure was the sale-leaseback. grant program enacted in the American Recovery & Reinvest-
Investors were starting to experiment with early forms of a flip ment Tax Act of 2009.
partnership that lagged in sophistication behind the structuring As the solar industry evolved, residential solar exploded.
being used for wind project tax equity. If a solar company called Residential solar started with companies offering homeown-
20 Solar Industry b OCTOBER 2017You can also read
