A Cross-cutting View of Demographic Policy - Résumé by the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community at the end of the 19th ...
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
A Cross-cutting View of Demographic Policy Résumé by the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community at the end of the 19th legislative period
Forewords
You have in your hands the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community’s
three-part summary of work in the field of demography during the current legislative
period: policy and research, in analogue and digital form, in specific subject areas and
across disciplines.
Demography is one of the oldest social sciences, and the size of its target group is
impressive: it includes the entire population, from the youngest to the oldest. The Fed-
eral Government’s demographic strategy, ʻEvery Age Countsʼ, launched a broad-based
© Bundesregierung/Kugler
examination of demographic challenges and opportunities in our country. During this
legislative period, the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community focused
on achieving the strategy’s goals through intensive dialogue in the regions and exten-
sive knowledge transfer from theory to practice. Because Germany also held the Presi-
dency of the Council of the European Union in the second half of 2020, intensive dis-
cussions with our European neighbours also played a large role.
This is reflected in the two demography volumes of the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community and the
Federal Institute for Population Research. In these volumes, you will find a wealth of practical examples and research find-
ings, as well as a special chapter on preparing for future demographic developments as the baby boomer generation ages
and on the relevance of population data during the Covid-19 pandemic. The volumes look back at trends over the past ten
years and ahead at those to come in the next decade.
As the sponsor of the programmes Work4Germany and Tech4Germany, I am especially pleased that the Federal Ministry of
the Interior, Building and Community was one of the hosts for the first group of programme participants and in this way
helped the demography report to appear in digital form and thus make demography accessible online as well.
I invite you to find out more about important demographic issues with the help of graphics, videos, links and other informa-
tion both online and offline, and I wish you enjoyable and interesting reading.
Prof. Dr Helge Braun, MdB/Member of the Bundestag
Head of the Federal Chancellery and Federal Minister for Special Tasks
2 A Cross-cutting View of Demographic Policy
Developing strategic approaches is one of the central tasks of every Federal Govern-
ment. The broader the range of issues, the more complex the strategic architecture
which must be created in response. The broad scope of the Federal Government’s
demographic strategy is already apparent in its title, ʻEvery Age Countsʼ.
A population of more than 83 million includes a multitude of complex constellations:
young and old, married and single, employed and retired, those who are mobile and
those who are settled – each of us belongs to this population, with our needs and
desires for social cohesion, functioning infrastructure and viable economic and finance
systems. All of this is part of a fragile system of interdependencies and conflicts which
© BMI/Bertrand
must be brought into balance and resolved.
A carefully thought-out and precisely coordinated strategy lays the essential ground-
work for this effort. But without practical implementation, such a strategy would
remain just an ambitious plan.
During the current legislative period, the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community has made implementation
a priority. As lead ministry, it has been active at all levels and across all areas of action within the scope of the strategy:
engaging in local community dialogues on demography in north and south, working with other federal ministries to prepare
the public service for future demographic developments, and discussing with our European neighbours the many things we
have in common when it comes to population trends in Europe.
The scientific discipline of demography can see – at least for a certain span of time – into the future and offer models and
calculations to prepare us for current trends and future developments. Population growth due to immigration, population
ageing due to longer life expectancy and low birth rates, regional differences in prosperity – none of these is unique to Ger-
many. Supplying precise, science-based analyses in place of perceived notions is the task of the Federal Institute for Popula-
tion Research, located in Wiesbaden. The Covid-19 pandemic has demonstrated how relevant and valuable demographic
research can be, for example in comparing hospital capacities to the percentage of residents with pre-existing medical condi-
tions in different regions.
On this topic and many others, you will find comprehensive explanations and practical examples in these two volumes pro-
duced by the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community, on its website and on the website of the Federal
Institute for Population Research.
I wish you a pleasant journey into the world of demography!
Dr Markus Kerber
State Secretary at the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community
Résumé by the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community at the end of the 19th legislative period 3
4 A Cross-cutting View of Demographic Policy
Contents
I. Understanding and shaping demographic developments: together and with a focus on opportunities! 6
1. Demographic development or ‘facts versus fake news’ 8
2. Equivalent living conditions – Commission mandate and pillar of the demographic strategy 14
3. ...and beyond: challenges and opportunities in almost all areas of life,
or ‘The Federal Government’s demographic strategy’ 16
4. ‘Every Age Counts’ as a political mandate: the management aspirations
of the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community 20
II. A cross-cutting view of demography – examples of national implementation 26
1. Together on site in the dialogue on demography: municipality – federal state – Federal Government 28
2. Working in interministerial and federal-state groups – change is taking place across disciplines
and with different impacts on regions 32
3. Demographic Portal with a new look:
modern and responsive design to support the launch of the ‘federal state months’ 34
4. Policy advice: tailor-made in all directions 38
5. Demographic security on the labour market: the public service takes the lead 42
III. The emergence of a European network 46
1. Initiative at EU level 48
2. Bilateral exchange 50
3. Not together and yet very close: virtual and ministerial at EU level 52
IV. Demography – a global issue 54
1. United Nations Commission on Population and Development 56
2. Looking to Asia and beyond 60
3. A portal reaches out into the world – with a suitcase packed with know-how! 64
V. The Covid-19 pandemic – editing and communicating population structure data 66
VI. Demography 4.0 or ‘Every age retold’ 72
VII. Looking to the future 76
1. Continue to apply tried-and-tested concepts 78
2. Building on global developments and setting specific accents 80
Résumé by the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community at the end of the 19th legislative period 5
I. Understanding and shaping demographic developments: together and with a focus on opportunities! 6 A Cross-cutting View of Demographic Policy
Source: pixelfit/E+/Getty Images
Demographic change will significantly alter the conditions As part of its demographic policy, the Federal Government
for developing prosperity and quality of life in Germany in aims to create the best possible foundation for strengthen-
the coming years and decades. Our society is getting older ing economic growth potential and maintaining the level of
and in the long run at least is likely to become smaller. It prosperity for future generations, and the conditions for
will also become more diverse, also as a result of immigra- this are more favourable than ever before. They will be
tion. Processes related to the population are crucial for all briefly described below and supported by facts and figures.
important areas of life: the concentration of the population After all, politics must be understandable and transparent.
in certain regions and labour markets, housing and com- And this is also the best way to counter false claims or fake
muting, demand for school education, demand for and use news which are also seen in conjunction with demographic
of digital infrastructures, healthcare services and much policy aspects, for instance, with regard to birth rates or
more. These factors, for their part, also determine how long migration movements. It is true that ‘fake news’ has always
and how healthy people live, where they settle and how existed and always will. In times of social media, when lies
many children they (want to) have. and false reports can spread all over the world in a matter
of seconds, however, it is important to prevent and counter
these with determination and to provide science-based
facts with an even greater reach.
Résumé by the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community at the end of the 19th legislative period 7
1. Demographic development
or ‘facts versus fake news’
Since reunification, Germany has grown from 79.9 million people in 1990 to 83.2 million today (as of 2019).
The expectation expressed in the Federal Government’s 2011 Between 2011 and 2019, around 13.4 million people moved
Demography Report, i.e. that the negative population growth to Germany, whilst 9 million left the country. Around two
trend observed since 2003 will continue and intensify in the thirds of immigrants came from European countries (includ-
coming years, has thus not been confirmed. The migration ing the Russian Federation, excluding Turkey). The migration
movements from (eastern and southern) European countries balance (inflows minus outflows, also termed net immigra-
have been primary contributors since 2011. What’s more, tion) hence amounted to 4.4 million people during this
large numbers of people seeking protection were recorded, period. A net total of 2.6 million people moved to Germany
especially in 2015 and 2016. Even though immigration from from European countries, including around 2.2 million from
non-European countries has often been the focus of atten- the EU. Almost 1.7 million net immigrants came from Asia
tion in recent years, the vast majority of immigrants to Ger- and a good 300,000 from Africa.
many came from Europe, except for the years 2015 and 2016.
Fig. 1: Net migration between Germany and world regions in the period from 2011 to 2019
Europe (including Russia,
excluding Turkey) 2.6
Asia (including Turkey) 1.7
Africa 0.3
America 0.1
Australia 0.0
Unknown origin and/or
destination region -0.3
Net inbound and outbound migration in millions
Data source: Federal Statistical Office, calculations and diagram: Federal Institute for Population Research
8 A Cross-cutting View of Demographic Policy
Since 2012, the birth rate in Germany has also risen noticea- At the same time, more and more people are living longer
bly – albeit at a low level – and in 2016 reached 1.59 children with better physical and mental health. At present
per woman, the highest level since 1972. In 2019, the birth (2017/2918 mortality table), life expectancy for newborn girls
rate was slightly lower at 1.54 children per woman, but still is 83.4 years, for newborn boys 78.6 years and is hence about
above the long-term average. The increase in birth rate was five years higher for girls and about seven years higher for
seen among women of both foreign and German nationality. boys than in 1990.
Fig. 2: Life expectancy at birth in West and East Germany* (1990/1992 to 2017/2019)
Life expectancy in years
85
80
75
70
65
1990/1992 1995/1997 2000/2002 2005/2007 2010/2012 2017/2019
Men/West Women/West Men/East Women/East
*from 1999/2001 without Berlin in each case
Data source: Federal Statistical Office, diagram: Federal Institute for Population Research
A high life expectancy, along with a persistently low birth cantly lower in the majority of these countries. This birth
rate despite an increase in recent years, characterises the rate would be needed for the child generation to maintain
process of demographic ageing, which Germany has in the parent generation. A birth rate permanently below this
common with most industrialised Western nations. The level without immigration would hence result in the next
birth rate is currently below 2.1 children per woman in all generation becoming smaller than the previous generation.
European and North American countries and even signifi-
Résumé by the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community at the end of the 19th legislative period 9
Fig. 3: Birth rate (children per woman) in world regions and selected countries (2015 to 2020)
Niger 7.0
Somalia 6.1
Nigeria 5.4
AFRICA 4.4
WORLD 2.5
OCEANIA 2.4
India 2.2
ASIA 2.2
LATIN AMERICA AND CARRIBBEAN 2.0
France 1.9
United States 1.8
NORTH AMERICA 1.8
China 1.7
EUROPE 1.6
Germany 1.6
Japan 1.4
Italy 1.3
Singapore 1.2
South Korea 1.1
Data source: UN, diagram: Federal Institute for Population Research
This process poses challenges that result mainly from a be it because they expect better employment opportunities
changed relationship between younger and older popula- elsewhere or because they want more access to education
tions, for example, on labour markets and in social security and infrastructure facilities of all kinds for themselves and
systems. And this is particularly felt where younger people their children.
in particular leave their homes for another part of Germany,
Fig. 4: Share of old population in selected countries and world regions (2020)
Ratio of older people (65+) to working age population (20 to under 65 years)
Japan 1 : 1.9 Italy 1 : 2.5 France 1 : 2.7 Germany 1 : 2.7
United 1 : 3.1 EUROPE 1 : 3.1 United States of 1 : 3.5 China 1 : 5.4
Kingdom America
ASIA 1 : 6.8 India 1 : 8.8 AFRICA 1 : 13 Nigeria 1 : 15.8
Data source: UN, calculations and diagram: Federal Institute for Population Research
10 A Cross-cutting View of Demographic PolicyFig. 5: Population by age group in world regions and selected countries (2020)
Nigeria AFRICA India WORLD
2.7 3.5 6.6 9.3
35.3 33.3
43.1 54.1 45.8 50.7
58.1 57.4
LATIN AMERICA
AND CARRIBBEAN ASIA United States NORTH AMERICA
9.0 8.9 16.6 24.8 16.8 24.4
32.1 31.2
59.0 60.0 58.6 58.8
China EUROPE Germany Japan
12.0 23.4 19.1 21.1 21.7 18.9 28.4 17.0
64.6 59.8 59.4 54.6
Share in percent: Under 20 years 20 to 64 years 65 years and older
Data source: UN, calculations and diagram: Federal Institute for Population Research
Fig. 6: Life expectancy at birth in world regions and selected countries (2015 to 2020)
Japan 84
Switzerland 84
Italy 83
France 83
Germany 81
United States 79
OCEANIA 78
EUROPE 78
China 77
LATIN AMERICA AND CARRIBBEAN 75
ASIA 73
WORLD 72
India 69
AFRICA 63
Nigeria 54
Lesotho 54
Central African Republic 53
Data source: UN, diagram: Federal Institute for Population Research
Résumé by the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community at the end of the 19th legislative period 11Migratory movements in the form of immigration, but one hand, to increased migration to predominantly rural
especially internal migration within Germany determine the areas. What’s more, the still positive migration rates of
distribution of people in the country in terms of numbers people aged between18 and 29, the so-called training and
and age. Besides predominantly rural regions, east German job migrants, to cities are no longer as high as before, and
regions were particularly hit by emigration in the past. at the same time there is a growing trend away from cities
Between 1991 and 2019, for example, a total of 3.9 million among those aged between 30 to 49, who are also known
people moved from east to west. On balance, the eastern as family migrants. And, finally, since 2017, more people
German states (excluding Berlin) lost a total of 1.2 million have been moving from the west to the east than in the
people to emigration to the west. However, it should also opposite direction. Some of them return to their home
be noted that a trend reversal has also been observed in the regions.
area of internal migration since 2011. This is due, on the
Fig. 7: Migration between West and East Germany* (1991 to 2019)
Persons (in thousands)
250
200
150
Migration loss, East Germany
100
50
0
1991 2000 2009 2018
Moves from East to West Moves from West to East
* in each case without Berlin
Data source: Federal Statistical Office, calculations and diagram: Federal Institute for Population Research
That being said, the distribution and age composition of the tion are already being felt today: While the average age in
population in Germany’s regions continue to vary consider- Germany in 2019 was 44.5 years, five districts or urban dis-
ably. They add to the considerable disparities that already tricts recorded an average age of over 50 years, including
exist within Germany, both in terms of regional income and the urban district of Suhl with the highest average age
employment opportunities and in terms of ensuring mobili- (50.8 years) of all districts and urban districts in Germany.
ty and access to services of general interest. Structurally On the other hand, the average age was less than 41 years
strong regions also benefit from the influx of qualified in six districts or urban districts, including the urban district
people from Germany and abroad. Structurally weak of Heidelberg with the lowest average age (40.4 years).
regions usually do not attract these people while at the 36 out of every 100 people aged 20 to 64 in Germany were
same time even losing younger, often well-educated over 65. In the east, the corresponding figure of 46 is signi
people. The consequences of these trends for age distribu- ficantly higher than in the west, where it is 35 (in each case
12 A Cross-cutting View of Demographic Policyexcluding Berlin). This has a corresponding impact on ser- i
vices of general interest. The Federal Ministry of the Interi-
or, Building and Community, with its community depart-
ment and in its capacity as coordinator of demographic
policy, addresses the issue of equivalent living conditions
from several perspectives, see, in particular, chapter I.2.
The Federal Institute for Population Research is a feder-
al departmental research institution under the responsi-
Fig. 8: Average age in districts and urban districts (2019) bility of the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building
and Community. It conducts basic research on the
Rank Urban district or district, resp. Average age causes and consequences of demographic change and is
1 Heidelberg, urban district 40.4 also active in the field of policy advice. More on the
2 Freiburg im Breisgau, urban district 40.6 Federal Institute for Population Research can be found
3 Offenbach am Main, urban district 40.7 in chapter I.4.
4 Frankfurt am Main, urban district 40.8
5 Darmstadt, urban district 40.8
14 Cologne, urban district 41.6
18 Berlin, urban district 41.8 i
21 Mansfeld-Südharz, district 42.1 The report by the Federal Institute for Population
Research is part of a three-part résumé by the demo-
34 Dessau-Roßlau, urban district 42.6 graphic policy of the Federal Ministry of the Interior,
397 Greiz, district 50.2 Building and Community in the 19th legislative period.
The first part consists of this report which specifically
398 Mansfeld-Südharz, district 50.2
addresses the formats and activities pursued and adopt-
399 Altenburger Land, district 50.3
ed by the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and
400 Dessau-Roßlau, urban district 50.4 Community in implementing the Federal Government’s
401 Suhl, urban district 50,8 demographic strategy. The interfaces with numerous
specialist topics are also addressed, in particular, the
Data source: Federal Statistical Office, calculations: Federal Institute for Population
Research significance of demographic change for the public ser-
vice. The second, research-based part is the report by
the Federal Institute for Population Research with a
focus on extensive data analysis and editing as well as
With regard to the details of demographic development, facts on demographic development. The Federal Insti-
reference is made to the exhaustive report issued by the tute for Population Research thereby addresses the
Federal Institute for Population Research that provides val- development not only in Germany, but also in a Europe-
uable impulses for future policymaking based on scientific an comparison as well as in an international context. It
research. emphasises selected aspects (such as migration between
urban and rural spaces) against a time horizon of up to
2040. The third part finally offers the core elements of
the demographic policy of the Federal Ministry of the
Interior, Building and Community for the first time in
digital format; more on this can be found in chapter VI
and at www.demografiepolitik.de/4you/en.
Résumé by the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community at the end of the 19th legislative period 132. Equivalent living conditions –
Commission mandate and pillar of the
demographic strategy
Where do I feel comfortable? What about access to goods and services? How can I help shape the quality of life in my
municipality? Can I continue to live in my familiar surroundings when I’m old?
These issues were most recently addressed specifically by On the basis of the final reports drawn up by the Commis-
the ‘Equivalent Living Conditions’ Commission which was sion’s six technical working groups, the Federal Minister of
appointed by the Federal Cabinet on 18 July 2018. As the the Interior, Building and Community, together with his
centrepiece of the Federal Government’s community policy, co-chairs, the Federal Minister of Food and Agriculture and
it was expected to develop recommendations on how we the Federal Minister for Family Affairs, Senior Citizens,
can improve local living conditions against the background Women and Youth, drew up proposals for the further
of demographic change. The guiding principle was to open development of active structural and, above all, regional
up real opportunities for everyone to have access to educa- policy. The report titled ‘Unser Plan für Deutschland –
tion, work, housing, prosperity, sport and infrastructure, be Gleichwertige Lebensverhältnisse überall’ (Our Plan for
it in Gelsenkirchen, the Lausitz region or Hamburg. Germany – Equivalent Living Conditions Everywhere)
www.bmi.bund.de/SharedDocs/downloads/DE/publika-
tionen/themen/heimat-integration/schlussfolgerun-
gen-kom-gl.html was presented to the Federal Cabinet on
i 10 July 2019. As one of the four pillars of the demographic
strategy, the promotion of equivalent living conditions has
Quote from the Cabinet decision to establish the long been a focus of the Federal Government and hence of
Commission dated 18 July 2018: the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Commu
nity.
“On the basis of a common understanding of equivalent
living conditions, the Commission aims to develop
recommendations for action with a view to different “When differences in living
regional developments and demographic change in conditions lead to inequality,
Germany.” our policies must compensate
for this.”
Federal Minister
of the Interior
Horst Seehofer
Source: www.bmi.bund.de
14 A Cross-cutting View of Demographic PolicyFig. 9: Demographic strategy of the Federal Government (equality of living conditions)
For more prosperity and quality of life for all generations
Ensuring sound funding
Promoting equality of for the state’s ability to
Strengthening economic Promoting social and
living conditions in the act and for reliable social
growth potential societal cohesion
regions security systems
∙ Potential for ∙ Family as a community ∙ Economic strength and ∙ Sustainability of
securing skilled innovation potential of rural public finances
workers at home • A society fit for young people and urban regions
and abroad • Reliability of social
• Self-determined life in old age • Promoting infrastructure and security systems
• Good education as facilitating the adaptation of
an investment in the • An inclusive society facilities of general interest • Attractive and
future modern public
• Civic engagement • Promoting sustainable urban service
• Productivity development and inclusive
through innovation • Health promotion and urban societies
and investment sustainable care in the event of
illness, need for care and for
people with dementia
Source and diagram: Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community
One of the Commission’s recommendations in its conclu- i
sions is to support all structurally weak regions – both rural Background to the Commission’s recommendation:
and urban – throughout Germany. In this context, the joint
task of ‘Improving Regional Economic Structures’ (GRW) is After German unification, regional structural policy was
of particular importance due to its high funding volume of geared specifically to merging east and west. When Sol-
1.2 billion euro annually. In order to address demographic idarity Pact II expired at the end of 2019, which com-
change in the context of this funding measure, a demo- bined the majority of the Federal Government’s invest-
graphic component will be included in the underlying indi- ment measures in the east German states, a need for
cator system. In this way, it will be possible to adequately action arose. However, structurally weak regions in west
take into account future economic development and Germany are also facing economic challenges. In view
employment potential in the region as well as the impor- of these two developments, the coalition partners
tance of demographic change, including migration, for agreed in the coalition agreement for the 19th legisla-
structural policy. On 28 October 2020, the Federal Cabinet tive period to create a new all-German assistance
approved the draft law of the Federal Ministry for Econom- system for structurally weak regions.
ic Affairs and Energy amending the law on the joint task of
‘Improving Regional Economic Structures’.
Résumé by the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community at the end of the 19th legislative period 153. ...and beyond: challenges and
opportunities in almost all areas of life,
or ‘The Federal Government’s
demographic strategy’
Facilitating equivalent living conditions in the regions and the associated fields of action are an important part of the
Federal Government’s demographic strategy.
That being said, the demographic strategy that was pre- trends. This strategy therefore identifies all fields of action
sented in 2012 and updated in 2015, titled ‘Every Age that are relevant when it comes to shaping demographic
Counts’ is comprehensively and actively geared towards change at a political level.
exploiting the opportunities presented by population
Fig. 10: Demographic policy of the Federal Government
Demographic strategy
‘Every Age Counts’
Start of working Further development of
group process demographic strategy
Adoption of a First demography Demographic Further implementation of
demographic strategy summit strategy conference the demographic strategy
1992 2009 2011 2012 2013 2015 2017 since 2018
Parliament: Demographic report Second demography Third demography
establishment of a summit summit
study commission
Result report of the
working groups
Demographic policy
bottom line
Source and diagram: Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community
16 A Cross-cutting View of Demographic PolicyAware of the demographic challenges, the Federal Govern- The core element of the strategy is comprehensive and
ment decided in its 2009 coalition agreement to develop a ongoing dialogue with stakeholders from federal states and
cross-ministerial demographic strategy by 2012. The basis local authorities, social partners, associations, business, sci-
for political decision-makers was the demographic report ence and civil society who are involved in shaping this dia-
presented in autumn 2011 which was the first of its kind to logue, www.demografie-portal.de/DE/Politik/Bund/Dia-
comprehensively present Germany’s past and foreseeable logprozess/Dialogprozess.html. A working group process
future demographic developments. According to this with many relevant stakeholders was therefore triggered on
report, measures had already been taken in all important the basis of the strategy. Finally, by the end of the 18th leg-
policy areas with a view to demographic change. It also islative period in 2017, ten working groups addressed all
underlined the need for an overarching policy geared to areas of life and policymaking affected by demographic
strategic objectives. On this basis, the Federal Government change, www.demografie-portal.de/DE/Politik/Bund/Dia-
presented its demographic strategy ‘Every Age Counts’ in logprozess/Arbeitsgruppen/arbeitsgruppen.html.
spring 2012, www.demografie-portal.de/DE/Service/Pub-
likationen/2012/demografiestrategie-der-bundesregierung.
pdf.
Source: Henning Schacht
Résumé by the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community at the end of the 19th legislative period 17A cabinet decision of 14 January 2015 mandated the Feder- The key element of this updated demographic strategy is
al Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community with the definition of four overall objectives, i,e,:
the further development of the Federal Government’s
demographic strategy from the previous legislative period l Strengthening economic growth potential
under the heading ‘For more prosperity and quality of life
for all generations’ (Für mehr Wohlstand und Lebensqual- l Promoting social cohesion
ität aller Generationen) with the participation of the minis-
tries. This strategy specifically fleshed out the objectives l Promoting equivalent living conditions
and their connection with the strategy’s fields of action,
including the results of the working groups, it outlined the l Ensuring sound funding for the state’s ability to act and
progress achieved so far in shaping demographic change for reliable social security systems
and presented the priority measures of the Federal Govern-
ment in the 18th legislative period. Sub-objectives and fields of action were then assigned to
each of these objectives in as far as these sub-objectives
and fields of action require political measures in order to
achieve the objectives. The four-pillar diagram below illus-
trates this:
Fig. 11: Demographic strategy of the Federal Government
For more prosperity and quality of life for all generations
Ensuring sound funding
Promoting equality of for the state’s ability to
Strengthening economic Promoting social and
living conditions in the act and for reliable social
growth potential societal cohesion
regions security systems
∙ Potential for ∙ Family as a community ∙ Economic strength and ∙ Sustainability of
securing skilled innovation potential of rural public finances
workers at home • A society fit for young people and urban regions
and abroad • Reliability of social
• Self-determined life in old age • Promoting infrastructure and security systems
• Good education as facilitating the adaptation of
an investment in the • An inclusive society facilities of general interest • Attractive and
future modern public
• Civic engagement • Promoting sustainable urban service
• Productivity development and inclusive
through innovation • Health promotion and urban societies
and investment sustainable care in the event of
illness, need for care and for
people with dementia
Source and diagram: Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community
18 A Cross-cutting View of Demographic PolicyThe fields of action and objectives are not statically www.demografie-portal.de/DE/Politik/Bund/Dialogproz-
arranged side by side, but are interdependent and interact ess/Arbeitsgruppen/ergebnisbericht-arbeitsgruppen-2017.
with each other. This means that changes in one or more pdf
fields of action of one pillar may directly or indirectly
impact topics of another pillar. It is, for instance, clear that
widespread access to educational institutions and well-
trained skilled workers (pillar 1) help to stabilise our social
security system (pillar 4) through good opportunities on the
labour market. Conversely, a decline in the number of
people doing voluntary work (pillar 2) may well be an issue
in certain regions in Germany where mobility services are
only available to a limited extent and are replaced by pri-
vate drivers, such as pensioners doing voluntary youth
work.
The revised demographic strategy was presented to the
Source: Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community
Federal Cabinet on 2 September 2015.
www.bmi.bund.de/SharedDocs/downloads/DE/publika- The implementation of the demographic strategy, together
tionen/themen/heimat-integration/demografie/demografi- with partners from the federal states, municipalities, busi-
estrategie-weiterentwicklung.html ness, academia and society, continues to this day. An inter-
generational policy that is adapted to the respective life sit-
With its Demographic Policy Assessment (Demografiepoli- uation while recognising and facilitating development
tische Bilanz der Bundesregierung) as of the end of the opportunities for people of all ages at an early stage is the
18th legislative period, the Federal Government finally pre- primary means of orientation to this end. The strategy is to
sented in 2017 the key trends in thirteen policy areas for a large extent implemented by the respective line minis-
shaping demographic change as well as important meas- tries. For example, measures to reconcile work and family
ures taken by the Federal Government during the legislative life or policy measures for senior citizens are initiated by
period. the Federal Ministry for Family Affairs, Senior Citizens,
Women and Youth, and labour market policy measures by
It thereby referred to the updated demographic strategy the Federal Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs. These
from 2015 and the objectives defined there. The assess- ministries are also responsible for the respective legislation.
ment concludes that the challenges posed by demographic The Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Commu-
change will continue to increase with the expected retire- nity has special responsibility for civil service law as well as
ment of the baby boomers from working life beginning in for homeland policy, urban development, housing and
the mid-2020s, and that the Federal Government will building as well as for the digitalisation of the federal
therefore continue to strengthen and interlink its ministeri- administration. First and foremost, however, the Federal
al activities and cooperation with other stakeholders in Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community is respon-
society. The results of the working groups were also pub- sible as coordinator and initiator at the interface of the
lished. fields of action covered by the strategy. Where the different
areas of life intersect, the ministry thus has a wide scope
www.bmi.bund.de/SharedDocs/downloads/DE/publika- for action, which it makes use of in different ways.
tionen/themen/heimat-integration/demografie/demo-
grafiebilanz.html
Résumé by the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community at the end of the 19th legislative period 194. ‘Every Age Counts’ as a political mandate:
the management aspirations of the
Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building
and Community
As mentioned earlier, many of these areas of life are closely interlinked, so that changes in one area also affect other areas
to varying degrees.
The current increase in birth rate, for instance, is considered This is where the possibilities and achievements of digitali-
to be not just a result of immigration, but also a direct con- sation can open doors, so that educational offers, for
sequence of family policy measures, such as parental allow- instance, can also be used in remote regions in virtual for-
ance and other measures to reconcile family and work, mats or telemedicine cave save having to travel to a doc-
www.bib.bund.de/Publikation/2013/Wirkungen-des- tor’s office in a distant city. Proactive demographic policy
Elterngelds-auf-Einkommen-und-Fertilitaet.html. And must address all these issues.
where there are more offers for preventive health care exist
and where there is a more employee-friendly working envi- To this end, the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building
ronment, we are likely to find higher numbers of skilled and Community has continued and intensified tried-and-
workers. Most recently and even today, the events sur- tested forms of cooperation at the interface with the poli-
rounding the Covid-19 pandemic have clearly shown us cies of the different ministries in the 19th legislative period
how great these dependencies are. An interconnected polit- and has at the same time developed and implemented new
ical approach that includes all areas of life is the only way formats. What all formats have in common is that they
to overcome this as well as future crises. Chapter V pro- enable and promote a high degree of communication and/
vides more details. or networking with and between a large number of stake-
holders. Moreover, the expansion of the responsibilities of
All in all, the developments described in chapter I – regard- the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Communi-
less of whether they are significant or only just beginning ty to include the topics of homeland, equivalent living con-
to materialise – must be seen to be positive from a demo- ditions, urban development as well as building and housing
graphic perspective. Increasingly high life expectancy repre- – beyond the ministry’s previous responsibility for public
sents enormous potential: for each individual, but also for service employment law – has opened up further possibili-
the economy and society of a country and hence for its ties for the ministry when it comes to implementing the
prosperity. But one should not forget that the existence and demographic strategy. Every effort should be made to
availability of infrastructures alone are not enough to main- ensure the ongoing exploitation of these possibilities in
tain and strengthen our economic power and prosperity on cooperation with the stakeholders mentioned in the strate-
the one hand and social cohesion on the other. A more gy: At Federal Government level with the Federal Chancel-
comprehensive perspective is needed instead. The only way lery and the ministries, as well as with the federal states
to create real opportunities and conditions for participation and their demography commissioners, as model projects in
in society exist if each and every individual has access to cooperation with districts and municipalities directly on
and can use technical and social – especially education – site, and also with representatives from academia and
infrastructures. research as well as from civil society.
20 A Cross-cutting View of Demographic PolicyThe implementation measures in this context primarily respect. This facilitates and strengthens communications
serve the following four objectives: between the Federal Institute for Population Research and
the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Communi-
l Enabling a broad transfer of knowledge from science to ty as well as with other federal ministries and political
politics stakeholders in Berlin.
l Initiating the exchange of experience with practitioners
on site i
Further details on the Federal Institute for Population
l Creating a European demographic policy network Research, in particular, on the individual research areas,
can be found at: www.bib.bund.de.
l Strengthening international cooperation platforms
Broad transfer of knowledge from science to politics
Demographic policy, just like policy in general, should not
be based solely on personal perception, perceived trends or
anecdotal narratives. Instead, demographic policy should
be evidence-based. This means that all decisions and meas-
ures to manage demographic change should be based on
facts, figures and the results of science and research. Suita-
ble instruments to this end include, for instance, conduct-
ing population studies, evaluating population structure
data, exchanging information on scenarios, learning from
comparisons, clarifying basic mechanisms of the interaction
of population and social processes, and evaluating the
Source: Isabel Pavia/Moment/Getty Images
impact of political measures and programmes. This is the
only way to communicate these measures to a broad popu-
lation who will then accept and support them.
The Federal Government has been investing in basic
research in population science for decades. More than 60
experts at the Federal Institute for Population Research in
Wiesbaden are currently working on various research topics
in the fields of fertility, mortality and migration in order to
provide the public with up-to-date facts and trends on
demographic development. The Federal Institute for Popu-
lation Research also collects its own data and engages in
national and international exchange with scientific partners.
At the same time, the institute comprehensively advises the
Federal Government and the federal states on research
topics. The Federal Government not only invests in basic
research, but also in policy advice. The opening of the insti-
tute’s Berlin office in 2018 was an important step in this
Résumé by the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community at the end of the 19th legislative period 21i Informed administrative action is the only way to generate
FReDA – The Lighthouse Project comprehensible and credible results. Consequently, staff of
the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Communi-
The most important step towards securing demographic ty, whose work is related to the topic of demography, are
research, both by the Federal Institute for Population also to be informed in various events about current
Research and by academic research in Germany as a research topics of the Federal Institute for Population
whole, is the promotion of the FReDA data infrastruc- Research.
ture – the family demographic panel. FReDA stands for
‘Family Research and Demographic Analysis’. Under the
auspices of the Federal Institute for Population
Research, FReDA will conduct a survey programme Exchanging experience with practitioners on site
starting in 2021 where a large representative sample of
persons aged between 18 and 49 and resident in Ger- Demographic policy should not only consider facts and fig-
many will be surveyed every six months on a wide range ures, but also have a realistic picture of the living environ-
of family demographic topics, such as the wish to have ment of the people in mind. It is also important to consider
children, compatibility problems, the relationship with the experience of the stakeholders who, on the one hand,
one’s own parents and the use of reproductive medicine. face the challenges of change every day and also imple-
The questionnaires include ‘open modules’ that will ment political measures on the other. Demographic change
enable all researchers in Germany to contribute their is taking place on the ground in the municipalities. This is
own questions in order to address their specific research where the impact on the population is being directly felt,
interests. The data collected will be made available to and where new concepts and approaches to solutions to
the scientific community without undue delay. guarantee the provision of public services and secure the
The Federal Institute for Population Research will also quality of life have been developed over a number of years.
provide regular and timely information directly to It is not always possible to present to federal policymakers
policymakers regarding the most important results from the knowledge gained and pre-existing solutions from one
FReDA. FReDA fills an important gap left following region of Germany or to pass them on to another region.
expiration of the Generations and Gender Survey (GGS) The Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Commu-
and pairfam (Panel Analysis of Intimate Relationships nity therefore considers itself to be particularly called upon
and Family Dynamics) survey programmes, thereby to act as a kind of demographic pilot at the interface of all
securing the basis for demographic research in Germany demographic issues and to interconnect people and pro-
beyond 2021. jects.
The Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Commu- European demographic policy network
nity is particularly committed to passing on in several for-
mats the knowledge gained specifically through the Demographic change is transforming not only Germany,
research and advice provided by the Federal Institute for but all member states of the European Union, albeit not
Population Research. The focus is on dialogue between always in the same way or at the same pace. All Member
practitioners and academia, which for its part can learn to States will see their population ageing in the coming dec-
translate laboratory results into reality through meetings ades, and many member states will also be confronted with
with stakeholder groups and through coordination a shrinking population. Both within the European Union
processes. and within the member states themselves, considerable
regional differences sometimes already exist in the areas of
population development, children and family, internal and
22 A Cross-cutting View of Demographic Policyexternal migration, ageing and social systems, the economy ning issues. The Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building
and the labour market as well as education. It is to be and Community believes that much can be achieved by
expected that some of these differences will even intensify exchanging experience across national borders and, if pos-
in the future. While scientists and researchers are very well sible, creating synergies. Where common positions are
interconnected throughout Europe, any exchange on issues found, these can also be asserted more forcefully in relation
of demographic change at EU-wide political level has been to international partners. The aim is hence to create a Euro-
limited to specific individual aspects, such as regional plan- pean demographic policy network.
Fig. 12: EU Member States and their population in millions (as of 2020)
Country code:
(AT) Austria
(BE) Belgium
(BG) Bulgaria
(CY) Cyprus
(CZ) Czech Republic
FI (DE) Germany
5.5 (DK) Denmark
(EE) Estonia
SE (ES) Spain
10.3 (FI) Finland
(FR) France
(EL) Greece
EE (HR) Croatia
1.3 (HU) Hungary
LV (IE) Ireland
1.9 (IT) Italy
(LT) Lithuania
DK LT (LU) Luxembourg
5.8 2.8 (LV) Latvia
IE (MT) Malta
5.0 (NL) Netherlands
(PL) Poland
NL PL (PT) Portugal
17.4 38.0 (RO) Romania
DE (SE) Sweden
BE 83.2 (SI) Slovenia
11.5 LU CZ
10.7 SK (SK) Slovakia
0.6 5.5
AT HU
FR 8.9 9.8 RO
67.1 HR 19.3
IT SI 4.1
60.2 2.1
BG
7.0
PT ES
10.3 47.3 EL
10.7
CY
0.9
MT
0.5
Source: EUROSTAT, map: Federal Institute for Population Research
Résumé by the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community at the end of the 19th legislative period 23Strengthening international cooperation platforms tion and are trying out new ways of managing this develop-
ment. Here it is important to exchange experience and
Demographic developments in countries outside the EU learn from each other. In many African countries, on the
can have a direct and indirect impact on EU countries, for other hand, there are many more young people than old,
example, when it comes to migration flows. Past experience and ways are being explored to harness the so-called
shows that migration out of non-European countries can demographic dividend for economic development. Germa-
become inbound migration to the European continent, with ny can actively contribute its experience with demogra-
implications for population size and composition in the phy-orientated policy design to the international debate. In
respective countries. Demographic trends in countries out- light of the interactions between demographic develop-
side Europe are generally diverse: Whilst the population ments within and outside the EU, the Federal Ministry of
continues to rise in many African countries, more and more the Interior, Building and Community sees it as its duty to
countries are seeing stagnant or declining population num- strengthen the international dimension of German demo-
bers. Like Germany, Asian countries, such as Japan, Singa- graphic policy and to clearly identify references to Germa-
pore and Thailand, face the challenges of an ageing popula- ny.
Fig. 13: Continents according to current population development
Population 2020 Population growth 2020
1 billion 500 million 100 million High Moderate No
inhabitants inhabitants inhabitants growth growth growth
Data source: UN, calculations and diagram: Federal Institute for Population Research
24 A Cross-cutting View of Demographic PolicyFig. 14: Migration between and within world regions in the period from 2010 to 2015*
* Data are only available in 5-year periods. Data for the 2015 to 2020 period will be available in 2021/2022.
Data source: Abel, Guy J. “Estimates of global bilateral migration flows by gender between 1960 and 2015.” International Migration Rewiew 52.3
(2018): 809-852, diagram: Federal Institute for Population Research
With a view to the four objectives described earlier, the i
Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community Migration processes between the world regions are
has developed appropriate formats to implement the Fed- mapped. The colour indicates the direction, the width
eral Government’s demographic strategy. These formats are their size. Example: Between 2010 and 2015, around
hence taking place at national (federal, federal-state and 1.1 million people migrated from south Asia to Europe,
municipal) level and in the European framework as well as and another 3 million to west Asia.
at international level.
Résumé by the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community at the end of the 19th legislative period 25II. A cross-cutting view of demography – examples of national implementation 26 A Cross-cutting View of Demographic Policy
Source: Westend61/Getty Images Résumé by the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community at the end of the 19th legislative period 27
1. Together on site in the dialogue on demo-
graphy: municipality – federal state –
Federal Government
The Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community as a demographic pilot – this is the idea already mentioned
earlier that underlies the format of demographic dialogue.
After the working group process in the last legislative expert forum to make their experiences and knowledge vis-
period was completed, cooperation with the design part- ible and to exchange them directly with each other.
ners, i.e. the representatives of all levels of government, the
economy, the social partners, academia and civil society, What helps and what hinders the implementation of new
had to be continued in a suitable form, as announced in the concepts? Where do regulations and standards need to be
Federal Government’s Demographic Policy Assessment at more flexible? How can successful cooperation between
the end of the 18th legislative period. Shortly after that, the municipalities be organised? This wealth of knowledge and
idea of holding demographic dialogue with a focus on experience must be leveraged and made visible. That is why
‘Strengthening regions – reducing disparities’ emerged. it is mainly the practitioners who have their say, learning
from each other, sharing knowledge and passing on experi-
This dialogue was implemented in workshops that were ences. Insight will be gained how the respective topics and
held locally in individual events took place locally in the fields of action should be rethought and implemented in
federal states and/or regions and supported by the federal view of demographic development, how the framework for
states and/or other design partners. The aim was to address stakeholders in the municipalities must be designed in light
the topics on a broader and up-to-date basis, so that indi- of demographic change, and how standards and norms
vidual aspects could be addressed in greater depth in the must be adapted in order to enable new, alternative
respective workshops. Another aim was to incorporate approaches to solutions that will guarantee services of gen-
more practical examples into the implementation of the eral interest and secure the quality of life. The results will
demographic strategy and to involve the design partners in be made available to other federal states and municipalities
this dialogue process. and, if necessary, a need for action will be identified for the
Federal Government and the federal states.
The series of events which has been rolled out across sev-
eral regions of Germany addresses the challenges and In its capacity as demographic pilot, the Federal Ministry of
opportunities of demographic development in our demo- the Interior, Building and Community has special tasks in
graphically heterogeneous country. Participants and this regard: The first one being to contribute existing
addressees of the individual one-day events are always the knowledge, i.e. demographic data and facts, relevant for the
local stakeholders, i.e. representatives of the district, specific region. The second task is to involve subject matter
mayors, representatives of professional associations, if rele- experts who can share their knowledge of action concepts
vant, of the Chamber of Industry and Commerce, of senior as well as best practice information and, if applicable, exist-
citizens and similar organisations who are shaping demo- ing support programmes with local stakeholders. Where
graphic change at local level. The dialogue offers them an possible and appropriate, these can be project managers
28 A Cross-cutting View of Demographic Policyfrom municipalities facing comparable challenges, but also facing comparable challenges, very much in the tradition of
colleagues from federal and federal state ministries respon- the twinning idea. In this way, solution concepts can be dis-
sible in charge of the respective topic. What’s special about cussed in detail and directly tested with a view to transfera-
this format is that not only the region hosting the dialogue bility and practicability. This approach ultimately integrates
is looked at, but that the Federal Ministry of the Interior, all social stakeholders who actively shape demographic
Building and Community – where possible and appropriate change locally, enabling them to pass on their knowledge
– also introduces potential contacts, such as representa- and experience and encourage other stakeholders to also
tives of the district administration and from municipalities break new ground.
Experience from Cham and Stendal
Up to now, two of the four demographic dialogues planned for this legislative period have already taken place:
Demographic Dialogue ‘South’ in Cham 2018 (Bavaria)
On 4 December 2018, representatives of the region met
with stakeholders from the federal government and from
Bavaria, Brandenburg and Lower Saxony in Cham, Upper
Palatinate. Using the example of the Cham district, they
discussed mobility in rural areas and formulated concrete
approaches for action. The results were published in a bro-
chure, www.demografie-portal.de/DE/Service/Publika-
tionen/2019/erster-demografiedialog-mobilitaet-in-laend-
lichen-raeumen.html. A first impression of the region can
be found in the opening film for the dialogue event:
https://youtu.be/Cso9wJhzDW4.
Source: Benjamin Franz
Résumé by the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community at the end of the 19th legislative period 29You can also read
