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A new abnormal:
It is still 2 minutes to midnight
2019 Doomsday Clock Statement
Science and Security Board
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
Editor, John Mecklin
IT IS 2 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT ®Statement from the President and CEO
As the Bulletin’s Science and Security Board framework for how citizens can begin to organize
prepared for its first set of Doomsday Clock themselves and respond.
discussions this fall, it began referring to the
current world security situation as a “new I am grateful to the Science and Security Board
abnormal.” This new abnormal is a pernicious for cogently addressing the challenges we face and
and dangerous departure from the time when developing a call for action. The Bulletin’s editor-
the United States sought a leadership role in in-chief John Mecklin helped blend differences
designing and supporting global agreements in viewpoints and multiple voices into a unified
that advanced a safer and healthier planet. The statement—no easy feat. Our new executive
new abnormal describes a moment in which chair, Jerry Brown, and Board of Sponsors
fact is becoming indistinguishable from fiction, chair Bill Perry not only offered their views
undermining our very abilities to develop and but were invaluable in producing an animated
apply solutions to the big problems of our time. and productive set of conversations ahead of
The new abnormal risks emboldening autocrats this year’s Clock decision. I thank the Bulletin’s
and lulling citizens around the world into a Governing Board for its support and guidance
dangerous sense of anomie and political paralysis. during the report process and throughout the year.
As you will see in the pages that follow, this year’s The Bulletin could not do all it does without
Doomsday Clock statement draws attention to the major supporters, including the Harris School
devolving state of nuclear and climate security. It of Public Policy at the University of Chicago,
also points to a qualitative change in information the MacArthur Foundation, the Carnegie
warfare and a steady misrepresentation of fact Corporation of New York, the Holthues Trust,
that is undermining confidence in political the Ploughshares Fund, the Sisyphus Supporting
structures and scientific inquiry. At the same Foundation, and the many other foundations
time, science is racing forward, and new global and major donors who help the Bulletin ensure
governance structures are desperately needed that advances in science and technology make
to manage rapidly evolving and potentially life on earth better, not worse. Most gratifying
dangerous technologies. is the support offered by individuals around the
world, often in small but steady amounts. Their
In 2017, the Bulletin moved the time of the support suggests that the ingredients exist to
Doomsday Clock a half minute closer to midnight, create a global grassroots coalition committed
in part because of reckless approaches toward to advancing a more peaceful future, one based
nuclear weapons and a growing disregard for on scientific inquiry, rational debate, and fewer
the expertise needed to address today’s biggest nuclear weapons.
challenges, most importantly climate change. We
argued that world leaders not only failed to deal Everyone has a role to play in advancing this
adequately with nuclear and climate threats, they vision, and there is much work to be done. We
increased them “through a variety of provocative hope you will join us and, in so doing, help
statements and actions, including careless #rewindthedoomsdayclock.
rhetoric about the use of nuclear weapons and Rachel Bronson, PhD
the wanton defiance of scientific truths.” Two President & CEO
years later, it has become even clearer that 24 January, 2019
“the intentional corruption of the information Chicago, IL
ecosystem” threatens to undermine the rational
discourse needed to address such challenges. The
2019 statement therefore goes on to provide a
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists § 1A new abnormal: It is still two minutes to midnight
Editor’s note: Founded in 1945 by University of Chicago scientists who had helped develop the first atomic weapons
in the Manhattan Project, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists created the Doomsday Clock two years later,
using the imagery of apocalypse (midnight) and the contemporary idiom of nuclear explosion (countdown to zero)
to convey threats to humanity and the planet. The decision to move (or to leave in place) the minute hand of the
Doomsday Clock is made every year by the Bulletin’s Science and Security Board in consultation with its Board of
Sponsors, which includes 15 Nobel laureates. The Clock has become a universally recognized indicator of the world’s
vulnerability to catastrophe from nuclear weapons, climate change, and new technologies emerging in other domains.
To: Leaders and citizens of the world world community failed dismally last year. At the
Re: A new abnormal: It is still two minutes to same time, the main global accord on addressing
midnight climate change—the 2015 Paris agreement—has
Date: January 24, 2019 become increasingly beleaguered. The United
States announced it will withdraw from that
Humanity now faces two simultaneous existential pact, and at the December climate summit in
threats, either of which would be cause for Poland, the United States allied itself with Russia,
extreme concern and immediate attention. These Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait (all major petroleum-
major threats—nuclear weapons and climate producing countries) to undercut an expert report
change—were exacerbated this past year by the on climate change impacts that the Paris climate
increased use of information warfare to undermine conference had itself commissioned.
democracy around the world, amplifying risk from
these and other threats and putting the future of Amid these unfortunate nuclear and climate
civilization in extraordinary danger. developments, there was a rise during the last year
in the intentional corruption of the information
In the nuclear realm, the United States abandoned ecosystem on which modern civilization depends.
the Iran nuclear deal and announced it would In many forums, including particularly social
withdraw from the Intermediate-range Nuclear media, nationalist leaders and their surrogates
Forces Treaty (INF), grave steps towards a lied shamelessly, insisting that their lies were
complete dismantlement of the global arms truth, and the truth “fake news.” These intentional
control process. Although the United States and attempts to distort reality exaggerate social
North Korea moved away from the bellicose divisions, undermine trust in science, and
rhetoric of 2017, the urgent North Korean nuclear diminish confidence in elections and democratic
dilemma remains unresolved. Meanwhile, the institutions. Because these distortions attack
world’s nuclear nations proceeded with programs the rational discourse required for solving the
of “nuclear modernization” that are all but complex problems facing humanity, cyber-enabled
indistinguishable from a worldwide arms race, and information warfare aggravates other major
the military doctrines of Russia and the United global dangers—including those posed by nuclear
States have increasingly eroded the long-held weapons and climate change—as it undermines
taboo against the use of nuclear weapons. civilization generally.
On the climate change front, global carbon dioxide There is nothing normal about the complex and
emissions—which seemed to plateau earlier this frightening reality just described.
decade—resumed an upward climb in 2017 and
2018. To halt the worst effects of climate change, The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists Science and
the countries of the world must cut net worldwide Security Board today sets the Doomsday Clock
carbon dioxide emissions to zero by well before at two minutes to midnight—the closest it has
the end of the century. By such a measure, the ever been to apocalypse. Though unchanged
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists § 2from 2018, this setting should be taken not as a committed to their arsenals, are determined to
sign of stability but as a stark warning to leaders modernize their capabilities, and have increasingly
and citizens around the world. The current espoused doctrines that envision nuclear use.
international security situation—what we call Brash leaders, intense diplomatic disputes,
the “new abnormal”—has extended over two and regional instabilities combine to create an
years now. It’s a state as worrisome as the most international context in which nuclear dangers are
dangerous times of the Cold War, a state that all too real.
features an unpredictable and shifting landscape of
simmering disputes that multiply the chances for A number of negative developments colored the
major military conflict to erupt. nuclear story in 2018.
This new abnormal is simply too volatile and First, the United States abandoned the Joint
dangerous to accept as a continuing state of world Comprehensive Plan of Action, the multilateral
affairs. agreement that imposed unprecedented
constraints on Iran’s nuclear program and allowed
Dire as the present may seem, there is nothing unprecedented verification of Iran’s nuclear
hopeless or predestined about the future. The facilities and activities. On May 8, President
Bulletin resolutely believes that human beings can Trump announced that the United States would
manage the dangers posed by the technology that cease to observe the agreement and would instead
humans create. Indeed, in the 1990s, leaders in launch a campaign of “maximum pressure”
the United States and the Soviet Union took bold against Iran. So far, Iran and the other parties
action that made nuclear war have continued to comply with
markedly less likely—and that the agreement, despite the
led the Bulletin to move the There is nothing absence of US participation.
minute hand of the Doomsday normal about It is unclear whether they will
Clock far from midnight. the complex and keep the agreement alive, but
frightening reality one thing is certain: The Trump
But threats must be administration has launched
acknowledged before they can just described. an assault on one of the major
be effectively confronted. The nuclear nonproliferation successes
current situation—in which of recent years and done so in a
intersecting nuclear, climate, and information way that increases the likelihood of conflict with
warfare threats all go insufficiently recognized Iran and further heightens tensions with long-term
and addressed, when they are not simply ignored allies.
or denied—is unsustainable. The longer world
leaders and citizens carelessly inhabit this new and Second, in October the Trump administration
abnormal reality, the more likely the world is to announced that it intends to withdraw from the
experience catastrophe of historic proportions. INF Treaty, which bans missiles of intermediate
range. Though bedeviled by reciprocal complaints
Worrisome nuclear trends continue. The about compliance, the INF agreement has
global nuclear order has been deteriorating been in force for more than 30 years and has
for many years, and 2018 was no exception to contributed to stability in Europe. Its potential
this trend. Relations between the United States death foreshadows a new competition to deploy
and both Russia and China have grown more weapons long banned. Unfortunately, while
fraught. The architecture of nuclear arms control treaties are being eliminated, there is no process in
built up over half a century continues to decay, place that will create a new regime of negotiated
while the process of negotiating reductions in constraints on nuclear behavior. For the first time
nuclear weapons and fissile material stockpiles since the 1980s, it appears the world is headed into
is moribund. The nuclear-armed states remain an unregulated nuclear environment—an outcome
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists § 3that could reproduce the intense arms racing that worrisome from this point of view. It spotlights the
was the hallmark of the early, unregulated decades claim that Russia has adopted a highly escalatory
of the nuclear age. nuclear doctrine. And it insists that the United
States too must be prepared to use nuclear
Third, the longstanding, urgent North Korean weapons in a wide array of circumstances, and
nuclear issue remains unresolved. Some good so should invest in new, more-usable nuclear
news did emerge in 2018. The bellicose rhetoric weapons. The longstanding hopes that nuclear
of 2017, which had raised fears of war, is largely weapons would recede into the background of
gone. The summit between President Trump and international politics are being dashed.
President Kim in Singapore in June 2018 appears
to have been a diplomatic step forward. But not The disturbing developments in 2018 are the latest
a single substantive and enduring concrete step indications that the nuclear order is deteriorating
was taken to constrain or roll back North Korea’s and that nuclear risks are increasing. Urgent action
nuclear program, and modernization of its nuclear is necessary to reverse the trends that are taking
capabilities continues. The the world down a perilous
chummy exchanges between nuclear path.
the two leaders have reverted The existential threat
to wary challenges, and the from human-caused Ominous climate change
potential for nuclear instability global warming is trends. The existential threat
in Northeast Asia persists, from human-caused global
ominous and getting warming is ominous and
largely unabated. worse. getting worse. Every year that
Fourth, even as arms control human activities continue
efforts wane, modernization to add carbon dioxide to
of nuclear forces around the world continues the atmosphere irreversibly ratchets up the
apace. In his Presidential Address to the Federal future level of human suffering and ecosystem
Assembly on March 1, Russian President destruction that will be wrought by global climate
Vladimir Putin described an extensive disruption. The key measure of improvement on
nuclear modernization program, justified the climate front is the extent of progress toward
as a response to US missile defense efforts. bringing global net carbon dioxide emissions to
The Trump administration has added to the zero. On this measure, the countries of the world
enormously expensive comprehensive nuclear have failed dismally.
modernization program it inherited from the
Obama administration. Meanwhile, the nuclear Global carbon dioxide emissions rates had
capabilities of the other seven nuclear armed been rising exponentially until 2012 but ceased
states are not governed by any negotiated growing from 2013 to 2016. Even if this emissions
constraints, and several of them—notably India plateau had continued, it would not have halted
and Pakistan—continue to expand and modernize the growth of warming. Net emissions need to
their capabilities. These long-term modernization ultimately be brought to zero to do so, given the
programs envision the possession of substantial persistence of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere
nuclear capabilities for decades to come, with little for up to thousands of years. The ominous news
indication of interest in reducing or constraining from 2017 and 2018 is that world emissions appear
nuclear forces. to have resumed their upward climb.
Fifth, reliance on nuclear weapons appears to Even nations that have strongly supported the
be growing, and military doctrines are evolving need to decarbonize are not doing enough.
in ways that increase the focus on actually using Preliminary estimates show that almost all
nuclear weapons. The Trump administration’s countries contributed to the rise in emissions.
most recent Nuclear Posture Review is doubly Some countries, including the United States
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists § 4and some members of the EU, increased their not, that would be insufficient to halt warming at 2
emissions after years of making progress in degrees.
reducing them.
As long as there is carbon left in the ground,
The United States has also abandoned its efforts to keep it there will reduce the toll of future
responsibilities to lead the world decarbonization suffering from climate change. But even amid
effort. The United States has more resources than the worsening manifestations of an increasingly
poorer nations have; its failure to ambitiously disrupted climate, denialists continue to stymie
reduce emissions represents an act of gross action. President Trump, dismissing the National
negligence. The United States stood alone while Climate Assessment prepared by his own agencies,
the other G20 countries signed on to a portion of declared stubbornly, “I don’t believe it.”
a joint statement reaffirming their commitment to
tackle climate change. Then in 2018, at the United There is still time to rescue the world from truly
Nations Climate Change Conference in Poland, the catastrophic effects of climate change. For such a
United States joined with Russia, Saudi Arabia, and rescue to become reality, however, progress toward
Kuwait—all major oil producers—to undercut a decarbonization must pick up pace dramatically,
report on the impacts of climate and very soon.
change. The threat of information
Although emissions estimates Today, however, warfare and other disruptive
for 2018 are preliminary, what is chaos reigns in much technologies. Nuclear war
known supports a continuation of the information and climate change threaten
of an ominous trend. That the physical infrastructure
ecosystem on which that provides the food, energy,
the world is losing ground modern civilization
in its efforts to achieve net and other necessities required
depends. for human life. But to thrive,
zero emissions is set against a
backdrop of increasing scientific prosper, and advance, people
evidence for the severity of also need reliable information
impacts of warming of Earth. Despite the waning about their world—factual information, in
of El Niño early in the year, 2018 is likely to be the abundance.
fourth warmest year on record as measured by Today, however, chaos reigns in much of the
global mean temperature, with previous record information ecosystem on which modern
highs in 2015, 2016, and 2017. Greenland ice is civilization depends. In many forums for political
melting at an unprecedented rate. and societal discourse, we now see national
Global warming has contributed to the occurrence leaders shouting about fake news, by which they
of catastrophes, including the massive wildfires mean information they do not like. These same
seen this year in California, Greece, and Sweden, leaders lie shamelessly, calling their lies truth.
and the deadly heat waves suffered by Asia, Acting across national boundaries, these leaders
Australia, Europe, and North America. The and their surrogates exacerbate existing divisions,
US National Climate Assessment has forecast creating rage and increasing distrust in public
increasingly severe impacts on the economy, and private institutions. Using unsupported
human health, agriculture, and natural ecosystems. anecdotes and sketchy rhetoric, denialists raise
An Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change fear and doubt regarding well-established science
report has shown that even a modest increase in about climate change and other urgent issues.
global mean warming—from 1.5 degrees Celsius Established institutions of the government,
to 2 degrees—will bring severe impacts. Yet if the journalism, and education—institutions that have
world were on track to fulfill its commitments traditionally provided stability—are under attack
under the Paris climate accords, which it clearly is precisely because they have provided stability.
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists § 5In this environment, communication inflames to buttress institutions dedicated to rational, fact-
passions rather than informing reason. based discourse and governance.
Many countries have long employed propaganda The world faces other major threats from
and lies—otherwise known as information disruptive technologies; developments in synthetic
warfare—to advance their interests. But a biology, artificial intelligence, and cyber sabotage
quantitative change of sufficient magnitude are of particular concern. The velocity of change
qualifies as a qualitative change. In the Internet across these and other technological fronts is
age, the volume and velocity of information extremely high; the international effort to manage
has increased by orders of magnitude. Modern these rapid advances has been, to date, grossly
information technology and social media insufficient.
allow users easy connectivity and high degrees
of anonymity across national borders. This A signal event of 2018 was the editing of a human
widespread, inexpensive access to worldwide genome in China, an unfortunate demonstration
audiences has allowed practitioners of information of the weakness of institutional constraints on
warfare to broadcast false and manipulative genetic engineering and other biotechnological
messages to large populations at low cost, and research. The advent of “designer” human beings
at the same time to tailor political messages to would constitute a truly history-changing event
narrow interest groups. with a significant potential for unforeseen, large,
and dangerous consequences. The international
By manipulating the natural cognitive community has a common interest in delaying
predispositions of human beings, information experimentation into the editing of human
warriors can exacerbate prejudices, biases, genomes until such research can receive the
and ideological differences. They can invoke highest level of scientific and ethical review. At
“alternative facts” to advance political positions the same time, other biological hazards—ranging
based on outright falsehoods. Rather than a cyber from biological terrorist attacks to the emergence
Armageddon that causes financial meltdown or of deadly, rapidly spreading diseases—continue
nationwide electrical blackouts, this is the more to threaten world security. The management
insidious use of cyber tools to target and exploit of synthetic biology and other biothreats must
human insecurities and vulnerabilities, eroding become a world priority.
the trust and cohesion on which civilized societies
rely. Advances in machine intelligence—often called
artificial intelligence or AI—are also progressing
The Enlightenment sought to establish reason as at a rapid and largely unmanaged pace. The
the foundational pillar of civilized discourse. In Science and Security Board is particularly
this conception, logical argument matters, and the concerned about the incorporation of AI into
truth of a statement is tested by examination of autonomous weaponry that makes “kill” decisions
values, assumptions, and facts, not by how many without human supervision. But AI research and
people believe it. Cyber-enabled information development cut across a wide array of human
warfare threatens to replace these pillars of logic activities. Because AI will have increasingly large
and truth with fantasy and rage. If unchecked, such military, economic, and social effects in coming
distortion will undermine the world’s ability to decades, the international community must
acknowledge and address the urgent threats posed develop a cooperative system that maximizes
by nuclear weapons and climate change and will the positive potential of advances in machine
increase the potential for an end to civilization cognition while diminishing potential downsides.
as we know it. The international community
should begin multilateral discussions that aim to Beyond the information warfare previously
discourage cyber-enabled information warfare and described, the sabotage of computing networks
via cyber hacking constitutes a multifaceted threat
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists § 6to global security. The sophisticated sabotage of apocalypse—the Science and Security Board today
the “Internet of Things”—computer networks that highlights an unacceptable reality that remains
control major financial and power infrastructure largely unrecognized by the public at large: The
and have access to more than 20 billion personal future of the world is now in extreme danger from
devices—could have impacts so severe as to multiple intersecting and potentially existential
inspire military responses, potentially involving threats.
nuclear weapons. Here, too, more effective
international management regimes are desperately This situation—what we call “the new
needed. abnormal”—is untenable. In this extraordinarily
dangerous state of affairs, nuclear war and climate
Toward a safer, more sustainable world. The change pose severe threats to humanity, yet go
Doomsday Clock was first set at two minutes to largely unaddressed. Meanwhile, the use of cyber-
midnight in 1953, after the Soviet Union exploded enabled information warfare by countries, leaders
a thermonuclear device within a year of the first and subnational groups of many stripes around
US hydrogen bomb test. In ensuing decades, the the world exacerbates these enormous threats
two nations engaged in a furious arms race that and endangers the information ecosystem that
culminated in the 1980s, when the world inventory underpins democracy and civilization as we know
of nuclear warheads topped 60,000. it. At the same time, other disruptive technologies
complicate and further darken the world
From that point until fairly security situation.
recently, the leaders of
the United States and the The belief that the This situation cannot—must not—
Soviet Union (and Russia, threat of nuclear continue. And it need not.
after the dissolution of war has been
As the Science and Security Board
the Soviet Union) crafted vanquished was
a series of arms control noted last year: “The means for
and is a mirage. managing dangerous technology and
agreements that drastically
reduced the number of reducing global-scale risk exist; indeed,
nuclear weapons deployed. many of them are well-known and
These agreements were based not merely on trust, within society’s reach, if leaders pay reasonable
but also on verification and consultation, and as attention to preserving the long-term prospects of
they were expanded over time, the threat of a humanity, and if citizens demand that they do so.”
global nuclear holocaust seemed to fade into the US President Trump and North Korean Chairman
background, a concern of the past, dealt with long Kim made progress in cooling tensions on the
ago. Korea Peninsula in the last year, toning down their
The belief that the threat of nuclear war has been provocative rhetoric, reducing behavior that could
vanquished was and is a mirage. lead to conflict, and opening talks on Pyongyang’s
nuclear program. The Science and Security Board
The continuing danger posed by nuclear weapons applauds these efforts but notes that little real
burst into world news headlines in 2017, as Donald progress on dismantling the North Korean nuclear
Trump and Kim Jong-un exchanged bombastic program has been made. We urge the United
threats of nuclear attack and the US-Russia States and North Korea to move forward with
nuclear rivalry re-emerged. In January 2018, the the difficult negotiations that will be necessary
Science and Security Board moved the hands of to reach agreement on concrete steps toward a
the Clock to two minutes before midnight. At denuclearization process that will benefit the
that time, the board asked that its judgement “be North and the rest of the world.
interpreted exactly as it is meant—as an urgent
warning of global danger.” By keeping the Clock Beyond the Korean situation, there are many
at two minutes—the closest it has ever been to practical, concrete steps that leaders could take—
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists § 7and citizens should demand—to improve the their initial inadequate pledges to the Paris
current, abnormal, and absolutely unacceptable agreement.
state of world security affairs.
• The Trump administration should revisit
These common-sense actions would make the its lamentable decision to exit the Joint
world safer: Comprehensive Plan of Action for limiting
Iran’s nuclear program. The Iran agreement
• US and Russian leaders should return to the is not perfect, but it serves the interest of the
negotiating table to resolve differences over international community in restraining the
the INF treaty; to extend the nuclear arsenal spread of nuclear weapons.
limits of New START beyond 2021 and to seek
further reductions in nuclear arms; to discuss • The international community should begin
a lowering of the alert status of the nuclear multilateral discussions aimed at establishing
arsenals of both countries; to limit nuclear norms of behavior, both domestic and
modernization programs that threaten to international, that discourage and penalize
create a new nuclear arms race; and to start the misuse of information technology to
talks aiming toward elimination of battlefield undermine public trust in political institutions,
nuclear weapons. in the media, in science, and in the existence
of objective reality itself. Cyber-enabled
• The United States and Russia should discuss information warfare is a threat to the common
and adopt measures to prevent peacetime good. Deception campaigns—and leaders
military incidents along the borders of NATO. intent on blurring the line between fact and
Provocative military exercises and maneuvers politically motivated fantasy—are a profound
hold the potential for crisis escalation. threat to effective democracies, reducing their
Both militaries must exercise restraint and ability to address nuclear weapons, climate
professionalism, adhering to all norms change, and other existential dangers.
developed to avoid conflict and accidental
encounters. The “new abnormal” that we describe, and that
the world now inhabits, is unsustainable and
• US citizens should demand climate action extremely dangerous. The world security situation
from their government. Climate change is a can be improved, if leaders seek change and
serious and worsening threat to humanity. citizens demand it. It is two minutes to midnight,
Citizens should insist that their governments but there is no reason the Doomsday Clock cannot
acknowledge it and act accordingly. President move away from catastrophe. It has done so in the
Trump’s decision to withdraw the United past, because wise leaders acted—under pressure
States from the Paris climate change agreement from informed and engaged citizens around the
was a dire mistake. The Trump administration world.
should revisit that decision, which runs
counter to credible science. Today, citizens in every country can use the
power of the internet to fight against social
• The temperature goal of the Paris climate media disinformation and improve the long-term
agreement—to keep warming below 2 degrees prospects of their children and grandchildren.
Celsius and, ideally, below 1.5 degrees— They can insist on facts, and discount nonsense.
is consistent with consensus views on They can demand action to reduce the existential
climate science, eminently achievable, and threat of nuclear war and unchecked climate
economically viable, if poor countries are given change.
the support they need. But countries have
to act promptly and redouble their efforts to Given the inaction of their leaders to date, citizens
reduce greenhouse gas emissions well beyond of the world should make a loud and clear demand:
#RewindTheDoomsdayClock.
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists § 8Science and security board biographies
Rachel Bronson (ex officio SASB) is the established nation-leading targets to protect the
President and CEO of the Bulletin of the Atomic environment and fight climate change. Brown
Scientists, where she oversees the publishing attended the University of California, Berkeley,
programs, the management of the Doomsday and earned a JD at Yale Law School.
Clock, and activities around nuclear risk, climate
change, and disruptive technologies. Before Lynn Eden is Senior Research Scholar (Emeritus)
joining the Bulletin, she served as vice president at Stanford University’s Center for International
for Studies at The Chicago Council on Global Security and Cooperation. Eden is also co-chair of
Affairs, adjunct professor of “Global Energy” at the US Pugwash and a member of the International
Kellogg School of Management, and senior fellow Pugwash Council. Her scholarly work focuses
and director of Middle East studies at the Council on the military and society; science, technology,
on Foreign Relations, among other positions. and organizations; and US nuclear weapons
Her book, Thicker than Oil: America’s Uneasy history and policy. Eden’s Whole World on Fire:
Partnership with Saudi Arabia (Oxford University Organizations, Knowledge, and Nuclear Weapons
Press, 2006), has been translated into Japanese Devastation won the American Sociological
and published in paperback. Her writings and Association’s 2004 Robert K. Merton award for
commentary have appeared in outlets including best book in science and technology studies. Her
Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, The New York current research and writing (mostly historical)
Times, The Washington Post, “PBS NewsHour,” asks how a specific US military planning
and “The Daily Show.” Bronson has served as a organization has enabled very good people to
consultant to NBC News and testified before the plan what, if put into action, could or would result
congressional Task Force on Anti-Terrorism and in the deaths of tens or hundreds of millions
Proliferation Financing, Congress’s Joint Economic of people. In other words, how do US military
Committee, and the 9/11 Commission. officers make plans to fight and prevail in nuclear
war?
Edmund G Brown Jr. (Executive Chair) is Rod Ewing is the Frank Stanton Professor in
the Executive Chair of the Bulletin of the Atomic Nuclear Security in the Center for International
Scientists’ Boards and he just completed his fourth Security and Cooperation in the Freeman Spogli
term as Governor of the State of California in 2019. Institute for International Studies and a Professor
He began his career in public service in 1969 as in the Department of Geological Sciences in
a trustee for the LA Community College District the School of Earth, Energy and Environmental
and became California Secretary of State in 1970 Sciences at Stanford University. Ewing’s research
and Governor of California in 1974 and 1978. After focuses on the back end of the nuclear fuel cycle,
his governorship, Brown lectured and traveled mainly nuclear materials and the geochemistry
widely, practiced law, served as chairman of the of radionuclides. He is the past president of
state Democratic Party, and ran for president. the International Union of Materials Research
Brown was elected Mayor of Oakland in 1988 Societies. Ewing has written extensively on issues
and California Attorney General in 2006; he was related to nuclear waste management and is co-
elected to a third gubernatorial term in 2010 and editor of Radioactive Waste Forms for the Future
a fourth term in 2014. During this time, Brown and Uncertainty Underground: Yucca Mountain and
helped eliminate the state’s multi-billion budget the Nation’s High-Level Nuclear Waste. He received
deficit, spearheaded successful campaigns to the Lomonosov Medal of the Russian Academy of
provide new funding for California’s schools, and Sciences in 2006.
established a robust Rainy Day Fund to prepare for
the next economic downturn. His administration
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists § 9Biographies (continued)
Steve Fetter is associate provost, dean of the Sivan Kartha is a Senior Scientist at the
graduate school, and professor of public policy Stockholm Environmental Institute whose
at the University of Maryland. He served for research and publications for the past 25 years
five years in the White House Office of Science have focused on technological options and
and Technology Policy during the Obama policy strategies for addressing climate change,
Administration, where he led the environment and concentrating most recently on equity and
energy and the national security and international efficiency in the design of an international climate
affairs divisions. He is a fellow of the American regime. He is a co-Leader of SEI’s Gender and
Physical Society and a member of the Union Social Equity Programme, and co-Director of the
of Concerned Scientists board of directors and Climate Equity Reference Project. His current
the National Academy of Sciences Committee work deals primarily with the economic, political,
on International Security and Arms Control. and ethical dimensions of equitably sharing the
He has worked on nuclear policy issues in the effort of an ambitious global response to climate
Pentagon and the State Department and has been change. Dr. Kartha has also worked on mitigation
a visiting fellow at Stanford, Harvard, MIT, and scenarios, market mechanisms for climate actions,
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. He also and the environmental and socioeconomic impacts
served as associate director of the Joint Global of biomass energy. His work has enabled him to
Change Research Institute and vice chairman advise and collaborate with diverse organizations,
of the Federation of American Scientists. He is including the UN Climate Convention Secretariat,
a recipient of the American Physical Society’s various United Nations and World Bank programs,
Joseph A. Burton Forum Award, the Federation numerous government policy-making bodies
of American Scientists’ Hans Bethe ‘Science in and agencies, foundations, and civil society
the Public Service’ award, and the Secretary of organizations throughout the developing and
Defense Medal for Outstanding Public Service. industrialized world. He served as a Coordinating
Lead Author in the preparation of the Fifth
Daniel Holz is a Professor at the University of Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental
Chicago in the Departments of Physics, Astronomy Panel on Climate Change, released in 2014, co-
& Astrophysics, the Enrico Fermi Institute, and leading the chapter on Equity and Sustainable
the Kavli Institute for Cosmological Physics. Development, and has been selected as a Lead
His research focuses on general relativity in the Author for the upcoming IPCC Sixth Assessment
context of astrophysics and cosmology. He is a Report.
member of the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-
Wave Observatory (LIGO) collaboration, and was Elizabeth Kolbert has been a staff writer at The
part of the team that announced the first detection New Yorker since 1999 and has written extensively
of gravitational waves in early 2016 and the first on science and climate change to great acclaim.
multi-messenger detection of a binary neutron Her most recent book, The Sixth Extinction, won
star in 2017. He received a 2012 National Science the 2015 Pulitzer Prize for general nonfiction.
Foundation CAREER Award, the 2015 Quantrell Kolbert is also known for her book Field Notes
Award for Excellence in Undergraduate Teaching, From a Catastrophe, based on her three-part
and the Breakthrough Prize in Fundamental series on global warming, “The Climate of Man,”
Physics in 2016. Holz was selected as a Kavli which won the 2006 National Magazine Award
Fellow of the National Academy of Sciences and for Public Interest and the AAAS Advancement of
is a Fellow of the American Physical Society. He Science Journalism Award. She is also a recipient
received his PhD in physics from the University of a Heinz Award (for educating the public
of Chicago and his AB in physics from Princeton about environmental issues) and a Guggenheim
University. Fellowship.
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists § 10Biographies (continued)
Herb Lin is senior research scholar for cyber also Co-Chair of the US Pugwash Committee,
policy and security at the Center for International and is a member of the Council of International
Security and Cooperation and Hank J. Holland Pugwash. Miller co-directed the Academy’s project
Fellow in Cyber Policy and Security at the Hoover on the Global Nuclear Future Initiative with the
Institution, both at Stanford University. His Bulletin’s Science and Security Board chair, Robert
research interests relate broadly to policy-related Rosner.
dimensions of cybersecurity and cyberspace, and
he is particularly knowledgeable about the use of William J. Perry (Chair - Board of Sponsors,
offensive operations in cyberspace as instruments ex officio SASB) is the chair of the Bulletin’s
of national policy and the security dimensions of Board of Sponsors and his career has spanned
information warfare and influence operations on academia, industry, entrepreneurship, government,
national security. In 2016, he served on President and diplomacy. He served as the 19th Secretary of
Obama’s Commission on Enhancing National Defense for the US. In 2007, Perry, George Shultz,
Cybersecurity. He has also served as professional Sam Nunn, and Henry Kissinger together formed
staff member and staff scientist for the House the Nuclear Security Project, articulating practical
Armed Services Committee (1986-1990), where his steps to reduce current nuclear dangers. In 2013,
portfolio included defense policy and arms control he founded the William J. Perry Project in order
issues. to engage and educate the public on these issues,
and in 2015 published My Journey at the Nuclear
Suzet McKinney is the CEO/Executive Director Brink, a personal account of his lifelong effort to
of the Illinois Medical District Commission. She reduce the threat of a nuclear catastrophe. Perry
is the former Deputy Commissioner of the Bureau is currently the Michael and Barbara Berberian
of Public Health Preparedness and Emergency Professor (emeritus) at Stanford University. He
Response at the Chicago Department of Public received a BS and MS from Stanford, and a PhD
Health, where she oversaw the emergency from Pennsylvania State. He was awarded the
preparedness efforts for the department and Presidential Medal of Freedom (1997) and the
coordinated those efforts within the larger Knight Commander of the British Empire (1998).
spectrum of Chicago’s public safety activities. Perry has received numerous other awards,
A sought-after expert in her field, McKinney including the American Electronic Association’s
provided support to the US Department of Medal of Achievement (1980), the Eisenhower
Homeland Security, the US Department of Award (1996), and the Marshall Award (1997).
Defense, Defense Threat Reduction Agency, to
provide subject matter expertise in biological Raymond Pierrehumbert is Halley Professor
terrorism preparedness to international agencies. of Physics at the University of Oxford. He was
She is the author of the new text: Public Health a lead author on the IPCC Third Assessment
Emergency Preparedness: Practical Solutions for Report, and a co-author of the National Research
the Real World, published by Jones & Bartlett Council report on abrupt climate change.
Publishers (2018). He was awarded a John Simon Guggenheim
Fellowship in 1996, which was used to launch
Steve Miller is Director of the International collaborative work on the climate of Early Mars
Security Program at the Belfer Center for Science with collaborators in Paris. He is a Fellow of the
and International Affairs in Harvard University’s American Geophysical Union (AGU), a Fellow
Kennedy School of Government. He is a Fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences,
of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, and has been named Chevalier de l’Ordre des
where he is a member of the Committee on Palmes Académiques by the Republic of France.
International Security Studies (CISS). Miller is Pierrehumbert’s central research interest is the use
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists § 11Biographies (continued)
of fundamental physical principles to elucidate the fluid dynamics and magnetohydrodynamics, and
behavior of the present and past climates of Earth computational physics. His policy-oriented work
and other planets, including the growing catalog has focused on the future of nuclear power and
of exoplanets. He leads the European Research the back end of the nuclear fuel cycle, as well as
Council Advance Grant project EXOCONDENSE. various aspects of electrifying the transport sector.
He is a Fellow of the American Physical Society,
Ramamurti Rajaraman is an emeritus professor and an elected member of the American Academy
of physics at Jawaharlal Nehru University. He of Arts & Sciences and the Norwegian Academy of
is a founding member and former co-chair of Sciences and Letters.
the International Panel on Fissile Materials. He
is also currently a member of the Asia Pacific Susan Solomon is the Lee and Geraldine
Leadership Network, Council of the Pugwash Martin Professor of Environmental Studies at the
Conference on Science & World Affairs, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and was
Permanent Monitoring Panel on Mitigation of the Founding Director of the MIT Environmental
Terrorist Acts, World Federation of Scientists Solutions Initiative from 2014-2015. She is well
(Erice, Italy), the Editorial Board of “Science and known for pioneering work that explained why
Global Security,” and of the Board of Governors of there is a hole in the Antarctic ozone layer and is
the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies the author of several influential scientific papers
(New Delhi). His research areas in pure physics in climate science. Solomon received the Crafoord
include nuclear theory, particle physics, quantum Prize from the Swedish Academy of Sciences
field theory, quantum Hall systems, anomalous in 2018, the 1999 US National Medal of Science,
gauge theories, and Soliton physics. He has also the nation’s highest scientific award, in 1999, and
worked on areas of public policy including higher has also received the Grande Medaille of the
education, nuclear energy and disarmament. The French Academy of Sciences, the Blue Planet
latter body of work was recognized by the 2014 Prize in Japan, the BBVA Frontiers of Knowledge
Leo Szilard Lectureship Award by the American Award, and the Volvo Environment Prize. She is a
Physical Society. His work covers nuclear weapon member of the US National Academy of Sciences,
accidents, civil defence, India’s nuclear doctrine, the French Academy of Sciences, and the Royal
minimal deterrence and anti-missile and early Society in the UK. She served as co-chair for the
warning systems. He has analyzed the Indo-US Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
nuclear agreement and its impact on both India’s (IPCC) fourth climate science assessment report,
civilian nuclear program and its nuclear arsenal. released in 2007. Time magazine named Solomon
He has written about fissile material production in as one of the 100 most influential people in the
India and Pakistan and the radiological effects of world in 2008.
nuclear weapon accidents.
Richard Somerville is Distinguished Professor
Robert Rosner (Chair) is the chair of the Emeritus and Research Professor at Scripps
Bulletin’s Science and Security Board and is Institution of Oceanography, University of
the William E. Wrather Distinguished Service California, San Diego. His research is focused on
Professor in the Departments of Astronomy & critical physical processes in the climate system,
Astrophysics and Physics, and the Harris School especially the role of clouds and the important
of Public Policy Studies at the University of feedbacks that can occur as clouds change with
Chicago. Rosner served as Director of Argonne a changing climate. His broader interests include
National Laboratory, where he had also served as all aspects of climate, including climate science
Chief Scientist. His current scientific research is outreach and the interface between science
mostly in the areas of laboratory and astrophysical and public policy. He was a Coordinating Lead
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists § 12Biographies (continued)
Author of the Fourth Assessment Report of the advisor to Vice President Biden on issues of
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change nuclear security and nonproliferation. He served
(IPCC); the IPCC shared the 2007 Nobel Peace in several capacities during the 1990s at the US
Prize equally with Al Gore. Somerville is a Fellow Department of Energy, including an on-the-ground
of the American Association for the Advancement assignment in North Korea during 1995-96. With
of Science, the American Geophysical Union, Joseph Cirincione, he is the author of Deadly
and the American Meteorological Society. He Arsenals: Tracking Weapons of Mass Destruction.
has received both the Climate Communication He is a non-resident fellow with the Carnegie
Prize and the Ambassador Award of the American Endowment for International Peace and with the
Geophysical Union, as well as awards from the Managing the Atom Project at Harvard University.
American Meteorological Society for both his
research and his popular book, The Forgiving Air: Editor
Understanding Environmental Change.
John Mecklin is the editor-in-chief of the Bulletin
Sharon Squassoni is Research Professor at the of the Atomic Scientists. Previously, he was editor-
Institute for International Science and Technology in-chief of Miller-McCune (since renamed Pacific
Policy, Elliott School of International Affairs, at Standard), an award-winning national magazine
the George Washington University. Previously, that focused on research-based solutions to major
she directed the Proliferation Prevention Program policy problems. Over the preceding 15 years,
at the Center for Strategic and International he was also: the editor of High Country News, a
Studies and was a senior scholar at the Carnegie nationally acclaimed magazine that reports on the
Endowment for International Peace, both in American West; the consulting executive editor
Washington, DC. She has specialized in nuclear for the launch of Key West, a regional magazine
nonproliferation, arms control and security policy start-up directed by renowned magazine guru
for three decades, serving in the US government Roger Black; and the top editor for award-winning
at the Arms Control and Disarmament Agency, newsweeklies in San Francisco and Phoenix. In
the State Department, and the Congressional an earlier incarnation, he was an investigative
Research Service. She received a Bachelor of Arts reporter at the Houston Post and covered the
degree from the State University of New York at Persian Gulf War from Saudi Arabia and Iraq.
Albany, a master’s in public management from the Writers working at his direction have won many
University of Maryland, and a master’s in national major journalism contests, including the George
security strategy from the National War College. Polk Award, the Investigative Reporters and
Editors certificate, and the Sidney Hillman Award
Jon Wolfsthal is Director of the Nuclear Crisis
for reporting on social justice issues. Mecklin
Group, an independent project of Global Zero.
holds a master in public administration degree
Wolfsthal served previously as Special Assistant
from Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government.
to the President of the United States for National
Security Affairs and senior director at the
National Security Council for arms control and
nonproliferation. During his time in government
he was involved in almost every aspect of US
nuclear weapons, arms control, nonproliferation
and security policy. Previously, Wolfsthal was the
Deputy Director of the Center for Nonproliferation
Studies at the Monterey Institute of International
Studies, and served for three years as special
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists § 13About the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists believes
advances in science and technology should
make life on Earth better, not worse. We
equip the public, policy makers, and scientists
with the information needed to demand,
recognize, and support public policies that
reduce manmade existential threats such as
nuclear war, climate change, and disruptive
technologies. Our award-winning journal,
iconic Doomsday Clock, open-access website,
and timely events promote evidence-based
policy debates essential to healthy democracies
and a safe and livable planet.
The Bulletin is a not-for-profit 501(c)(3)
founded in 1945 by Manhattan project scientists
to engage the public on the implications of
science’s advancement. The Bulletin makes a
critical difference by increasing awareness and
offering solutions to the greatest challenges
facing our planet and its inhabitants.
The Bulletin penetrates the highest levels of
policy making and the broader landscape of
popular culture. The organization’s assistance
is regularly sought by policy makers and the
media for input and analysis. Fifty percent of
the Bulletin’s audience is younger than 35 (70
percent younger than 45) and half come from
outside the United States. The website receives
nearly a quarter million vists per month and the
January 2018 Doomsday Clock Announcement,
It Is 2 Minutes to Midnight, was viewed by
millions.
In June 2017, the Turn Back the Clock exhibit
opened at the Museum of Science and Industry,
Chicago. The exhibit showcases the Bulletin’s
history and illustrates the role that an informed
citizenry, including journalists, scientists,
advocates, artists, and others, can play in
creating a safer and healthier planet. The
exhibit remains open through 2019.
See more at: https://thebulletin.org
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists § 14Timeline of Doomsday Clock changes
2018 IT IS 2 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT 2016 IT IS STILL 3 MINUTES TO
The failure of world leaders to address MIDNIGHT
the largest threats to humanity’s future is “Last year, the Science and Security
lamentable—but that failure can be reversed. It Board moved the Doomsday Clock forward
is two minutes to midnight, but the Doomsday to three minutes to midnight, noting: ‘The
Clock has ticked away from midnight in the probability of global catastrophe is very high,
past, and during the next year, the world and the actions needed to reduce the risks
can again move it further from apocalypse. of disaster must be taken very soon.’ That
The warning the Science and Security Board probability has not been reduced. The Clock
now sends is clear, the danger obvious and ticks. Global danger looms. Wise leaders should
imminent. The opportunity to reduce the act—immediately.”
danger is equally clear. The world has seen
the threat posed by the misuse of information 2015 IT IS 3 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT
technology and witnessed the vulnerability of “Unchecked climate change, global
democracies to disinformation. But there is a nuclear weapons modernizations,
flip side to the abuse of social media. Leaders and outsized nuclear weapons arsenals pose
react when citizens insist they do so, and extraordinary and undeniable threats to the
citizens around the world can use the power of continued existence of humanity, and world
the internet to improve the long-term prospects leaders have failed to act with the speed or
of their children and grandchildren. They can on the scale required to protect citizens from
insist on facts, and discount nonsense. They can potential catastrophe. These failures of political
demand action to reduce the existential threat leadership endanger every person on Earth.”
of nuclear war and unchecked climate change. Despite some modestly positive developments
They can seize the opportunity to make a safer in the climate change arena, current efforts are
and saner world. entirely insufficient to prevent a catastrophic
warming of Earth. Meanwhile, the United States
2017 IT IS TWO AND A HALF and Russia have embarked on massive programs
MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT to modernize their nuclear triads—thereby
For the last two years, the minute hand undermining existing nuclear weapons treaties.
of the Doomsday Clock stayed set at three “The clock ticks now at just three minutes to
minutes before the hour, the closest it had midnight because international leaders are
been to midnight since the early 1980s. In its failing to perform their most important duty—
two most recent annual announcements on the ensuring and preserving the health and vitality
Clock, the Science and Security Board warned: of human civilization.”
“The probability of global catastrophe is very 2012 IT IS 5 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT
high, and the actions needed to reduce the “The challenges to rid the world of
risks of disaster must be taken very soon.” In nuclear weapons, harness nuclear
2017, we find the danger to be even greater, the power, and meet the nearly inexorable climate
need for action more urgent. It is two and a half disruptions from global warming are complex
minutes to midnight, the Clock is ticking, global and interconnected. In the face of such
danger looms. Wise public officials should act complex problems, it is difficult to see where
immediately, guiding humanity away from the the capacity lies to address these challenges.”
brink. If they do not, wise citizens must step Political processes seem wholly inadequate; the
forward and lead the way. potential for nuclear weapons use in regional
conflicts in the Middle East, Northeast Asia,
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists § 15You can also read
