It is 2 minutes to midnight - 2018 Doomsday Clock Statement Science and Security Board - Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
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It is 2 minutes to midnight
2018 Doomsday Clock Statement
Science and Security Board
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
Editor, John Mecklin
IT IS 2 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT ®Statement from the President and CEO
The year just past proved perilous and chaotic, the many other foundations, corporations, and
a year in which many of the risks foreshadowed individuals who contribute regularly to the
in our last Clock statement came into full relief. Bulletin’s mission. We are deeply grateful for this
In 2017, we saw reckless language in the nuclear ongoing support.
realm heat up already dangerous situations
and re-learned that minimizing evidence-based It is urgent that, collectively, we put in the work
assessments regarding climate and other global necessary to produce a 2019 Clock statement that
challenges does not lead to better public policies. rewinds the Doomsday Clock. Get engaged, get
involved, and help create that future. The time is
Although the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists now.
focuses on nuclear risk, climate change, and
emerging technologies, the nuclear landscape Rachel Bronson, PhD
takes center stage in this year’s Clock statement. President & CEO
Major nuclear actors are on the cusp of a new 25 January, 2018
arms race, one that will be very expensive Chicago, IL
and will increase the likelihood of accidents
and misperceptions. Across the globe, nuclear
weapons are poised to become more rather than
less usable because of nations’ investments in
their nuclear arsenals. This is a concern that the
Bulletin has been highlighting for some time, but
momentum toward this new reality is increasing.
As you will see in the discussion that follows,
the Bulletin’s Science and Security Board has
once again assessed progress—actually, lack
thereof—in managing the technologies that can
bring humanity both relief and harm. It is my
hope that the statement focuses world attention
on today’s dangerous trajectory and urges leaders
and citizens alike to redouble their efforts in
committing to a path that advances the health
and safety of the planet. The Board has provided
recommendations for how we might go about
achieving this end, and it is urgent that we take
heed.
I commend the members of the Science and
Security Board for the work they undertake every
day to put us on a safer footing. As always, John
Mecklin’s talented pen has helped pull together
wide-ranging contributions and allowed a large
group of engaged experts to speak with one voice.
The Bulletin couldn’t serve its proper role without
financial support from the Carnegie Corporation
of New York, the MacArthur Foundation, and
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists § 1It is now two minutes to midnight
Editor’s note: Founded in 1945 by University of Chicago scientists who had helped develop the first atomic
weapons in the Manhattan Project, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists created the Doomsday Clock two
years later, using the imagery of apocalypse (midnight) and the contemporary idiom of nuclear explosion
(countdown to zero) to convey threats to humanity and the planet. The decision to move (or to leave in
place) the minute hand of the Doomsday Clock is made every year by the Bulletin’s Science and Security
Board in consultation with its Board of Sponsors, which includes 15 Nobel laureates. The Clock has become
a universally recognized indicator of the world’s vulnerability to catastrophe from nuclear weapons, climate
change, and new technologies emerging in other domains. A printable PDF of this statement, complete with
the President and CEO’s statement and Science and Security Board biographies, is available here.
To: Leaders and citizens of the world In South Asia, Pakistan and India have continued
Re: Two minutes to midnight to build ever-larger arsenals of nuclear weapons.
Date: January 25, 2018
And in the Middle East, uncertainty about
In 2017, world leaders failed to respond effectively continued US support for the landmark Iranian
to the looming threats of nuclear war and climate nuclear deal adds to a bleak overall picture.
change, making the world security situation
more dangerous than it was a year ago—and as To call the world nuclear situation dire is to
dangerous as it has been since World War II. understate the danger—and its immediacy.
The greatest risks last year arose in the nuclear On the climate change front, the danger may
realm. North Korea’s nuclear weapons program seem less immediate, but avoiding catastrophic
made remarkable progress in 2017, increasing temperature increases in the long run requires
risks to North Korea urgent attention now. Global
itself, other countries carbon dioxide emissions have
North Korea’s nuclear weapons not yet shown the beginnings of
in the region, and the program made remarkable
United States. Hyperbolic the sustained decline towards
progress in 2017, increasing zero that must occur if ever-
rhetoric and provocative risks to itself, other countries
actions by both sides have greater warming is to be avoided.
in the region, and the United The nations of the world will
increased the possibility States.
of nuclear war by accident have to significantly decrease
or miscalculation. their greenhouse gas emissions
to keep climate risks manageable,
But the dangers brewing on the Korean Peninsula and so far, the global response has fallen far short
were not the only nuclear risks evident in 2017: of meeting this challenge.
The United States and Russia remained at odds,
continuing military exercises along the borders Beyond the nuclear and climate domains,
of NATO, undermining the Intermediate-Range technological change is disrupting democracies
Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF), upgrading their around the world as states seek and exploit
nuclear arsenals, and eschewing arms control opportunities to use information technologies as
negotiations. weapons, among them internet-based deception
campaigns aimed at undermining elections and
In the Asia-Pacific region, tensions over the South popular confidence in institutions essential to free
China Sea have increased, with relations between thought and global security.
the United States and China insufficient to re-
establish a stable security situation. The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists Science
and Security Board believes the perilous world
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists § 2security situation just described would, in itself, sophisticated nuclear weapons. North Korea
justify moving the minute hand of the Doomsday has or soon will have capabilities to match its
Clock closer to midnight. verbal threats—specifically, a thermonuclear
warhead and a ballistic missile that can carry it
But there has also been a breakdown in the to the US mainland. In September, North Korea
international order that has been dangerously tested what experts assess to be a true two-stage
exacerbated by recent US actions. In 2017, thermonuclear device, and in November, it tested
the United States backed away from its long- the Hwasong-15 missile, which experts believe
standing leadership role in the world, reducing has a range of over 8,000 kilometers. The United
its commitment to seek common ground and States and its allies, Japan and South Korea,
undermining the overall effort toward solving responded with more frequent and larger military
pressing global governance challenges. Neither exercises, while China and Russia proposed a
allies nor adversaries have been able to reliably freeze by North Korea of nuclear and missile tests
predict US actions—or understand when US in exchange for a freeze in US exercises.
pronouncements are real, and when they are
mere rhetoric. International diplomacy has been The failure to secure a temporary freeze in 2017
reduced to name-calling, giving it a surrealistic was unsurprising to observers of the downward
sense of unreality that makes the world security spiral of nuclear rhetoric between US President
situation ever more threatening. Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim
Jong-un. The failure to rein in North Korea’s
Because of the extraordinary danger of the current nuclear program will reverberate not just in the
moment, the Science and Security Board today Asia-Pacific, as neighboring countries review
moves the minute hand of the Doomsday Clock 30 their security options, but more
seconds closer to catastrophe. widely, as all countries consider
It is now two minutes to It is now two minutes to the costs and benefits of the
midnight—the closest the midnight—the closest the international framework of
Clock has ever been to Clock has ever been to nonproliferation treaties and
Doomsday, and as close as it Doomsday, and as close as it agreements.
was in 1953, at the height of the was in 1953, at the height of
Cold War. the Cold War. Nuclear risks have been
compounded by US-Russia
The Science and Security relations that now feature
Board hopes this resetting more conflict than cooperation.
of the Clock will be interpreted exactly as it is Coordination on nuclear risk reduction is all but
meant—as an urgent warning of global danger. dead, and no solution to disputes over the INF
The time for world leaders to address looming Treaty—a landmark agreement to rid Europe
nuclear danger and the continuing march of of medium-range nuclear missiles—is readily
climate change is long past. The time for the apparent. Both sides allege violations, but Russia’s
citizens of the world to demand such action is deployment of a new ground-launched cruise
now: #rewindtheDoomsdayClock. missile, if not addressed, could trigger a collapse
The untenable nuclear threat. The risk that of the treaty. Such a collapse would make what
nuclear weapons may be used—intentionally or should have been a relatively easy five-year
because of miscalculation—grew last year around extension of the New START arms control pact
the globe. much harder to achieve and could terminate an
arms control process that dates back to the early
North Korea has long defied UN Security 1970s.
Council resolutions to cease its nuclear and
ballistic missile tests, but the acceleration of For the first time in many years, in fact, no US-
its tests in 2017 reflects new resolve to acquire Russian nuclear arms control negotiations are
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists § 3under way. New strategic stability talks begun in administration’s Nuclear Posture Review appears
April are potentially useful, but so far they lack likely to increase the types and roles of nuclear
the energy and political commitment required weapons in US defense plans and lower the
for them to bear fruit. More important, Russia’s threshold to nuclear use. In South Asia, emphasis
invasion and annexation of Crimea and semi- on nuclear and missile capabilities grows.
covert support of separatists in eastern Ukraine Conventional force imbalances and destabilizing
have sparked concerns that Russia will support plans for nuclear weapons use early in any conflict
similar “hybrid” conflicts in new NATO members continue to plague the subcontinent.
that it borders—actions that could provoke a
crisis at almost any time. Additional flashpoints Reflecting long decades of frustration with slow
could emerge if Russia attempts to exploit friction progress toward nuclear disarmament, states
between the United States and its NATO partners, signed a Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear
whether arising from disputes on burden-sharing, Weapons, commonly known as the ban treaty,
European Union membership, and trade—or at the United Nations this past September. The
relating to policies on Israel, treaty—championed by the
Iran, and terrorism in the International Campaign to
In the past year, US allies have Abolish Nuclear Weapons,
Middle East. needed reassurance about which has been awarded the
In the past year, US allies American intentions more than Nobel Peace Prize for its
have needed reassurance ever. Instead, they have been work—is a symbolic victory for
about American intentions forced to negotiate a thicket of those seeking a world without
more than ever. Instead, they conflicting policy statements... nuclear weapons and a strong
have been forced to negotiate expression of the frustration
a thicket of conflicting policy with global disarmament
statements from a US administration weakened in efforts to date. Predictably, countries with nuclear
its cadre of foreign policy professionals, suffering weapons boycotted the negotiations, and none has
from turnover in senior leadership, led by an signed the ban treaty. Their increased reliance on
undisciplined and disruptive president, and unable nuclear weapons, threats, and doctrines that could
to develop, coordinate, and clearly communicate make the use of those weapons more likely stands
a coherent nuclear policy. This inconsistency in stark contrast to the expectations of the rest of
constitutes a major challenge for deterrence, the world.
alliance management, and global stability. It has
made the existing nuclear risks greater than An insufficient response to climate change.
necessary and added to their complexity. Last year, the US government pursued unwise
and ineffectual policies on climate change,
Especially in the case of the Iran nuclear deal, following through on a promise to derail past
allies are perplexed. While President Trump US climate policies. The Trump administration,
has steadfastly opposed the agreement that his which includes avowed climate denialists in top
predecessor and US allies negotiated to keep Iran positions at the Environmental Protection Agency,
from developing nuclear weapons, he has never the Interior Department, and other key agencies,
successfully articulated practical alternatives. has announced its plan to withdraw from the
His instruction to Congress in 2017 to legislate a Paris Agreement. In its rush to dismantle rational
different approach resulted in a stalemate. The climate and energy policy, the administration has
future of the Iran deal, at this writing, remains ignored scientific fact and well-founded economic
uncertain. analyses.
In the United States, Russia, and elsewhere around These US government climate decisions
the world, plans for nuclear force modernization transpired against a backdrop of worsening
and development continue apace. The Trump climate change and high-impact weather-related
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists § 4disasters. This year past, the Caribbean region and climate commitments and to the validity of
other parts of North America suffered a season scientific facts.
of historic damage from exceedingly powerful
hurricanes. Extreme heat waves occurred in This reaffirmation is reassuring, and other
Australia, South America, Asia, Europe, and countries have maintained their steadfast support
California, with mounting evidence that heat- for climate action, reconfirmed their commitments
related illness and death are correspondingly to global climate cooperation, and clearly
increasing. The Arctic ice cap achieved its acknowledged that more needs to be done. French
smallest-ever winter maximum in 2017, the third President Emmanuel Macron’s sober message to
year in a row that this record has been broken. The global leaders assembled at December’s global
United States has witnessed devastating wildfires, climate summit in Paris was a reality check after
likely exacerbated by extreme drought and the heady climate negotiations his country hosted
subsequent heavy rains that spurred underbrush two years earlier: “We’re losing the battle. We’re
growth. When the data are assessed, 2017 is almost not moving quickly enough. We all need to act.”
certain to continue the trend of exceptional global And indeed, after plateauing for a few years,
warmth: All the warmest years in the instrumental greenhouse gas emissions resumed their stubborn
record, which extends back to the 1800s, have— rise in 2017.
excepting one year in the late 1990s—occurred As we have noted before, the true measure of the
in the 21st century. https://climate.nasa.gov/ Paris Agreement is whether nations actually fulfill
news/2655/october-2017-was-the-second-warmest- their pledges to cut emissions, strengthen those
october-on-record/ pledges, and see to it that global greenhouse gas
Despite the sophisticated disinformation emissions start declining in short order and head
campaign run by climate denialists, the unfolding toward zero. As we drift yet farther from this goal,
consequences of an altered climate are a the urgency of shifting course becomes greater,
harrowing testament to an undeniable reality: and the existential threat posed by climate change
The science linking looms larger.
climate change to human Despite the sophisticated Emerging technologies and global
activity—mainly the disinformation campaign risk. The Science and Security
burning of fossil fuels that run by climate denialists, Board is deeply concerned about
produce carbon dioxide the unfolding consequences the loss of public trust in political
and other greenhouse of an altered climate are a institutions, in the media, in science,
gases—is sound. The harrowing testament to an and in facts themselves—a loss that
world continues to warm undeniable reality.... the abuse of information technology
as costly impacts mount, has fostered. Attempts to intervene
and there is evidence that in elections through sophisticated
overall rates of sea level hacking operations and the spread
rise are accelerating—regardless of protestations of disinformation have threatened democracy,
to the contrary. which relies on an informed electorate to reach
Especially against these trends, it is heartening reasonable decisions on public policy—including
that the US government’s defection from the policy relating to nuclear weapons, climate change,
Paris Agreement did not prompt its unravelling and other global threats. Meanwhile, corporate
or diminish its support within the United States leaders in the information domain, including
at large. The “We Are Still In” movement signals a established media outlets and internet companies
strong commitment within the United States—by such as Facebook and Google, have been slow to
some 1,700 businesses, 250 cities, 200 communities adopt protocols to prevent misuse of their services
of faith, and nine states, representing more than 40 and protect citizens from manipulation. The
percent of the US population—to its international international community should establish new
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists § 5measures that discourage and penalize all cross- by scientists since 1945, when each major nation
border subversions of democracy. will hold the power of destroying, at will, the
urban civilization of any other nation, is close at
Last year, the Science and Security Board warned hand.”
that “[t]echnological innovation is occurring at
a speed that challenges society’s ability to keep The Science and Security Board now again moves
pace. While limited at the current time, potentially the hands of the Clock to two minutes before
existential threats posed by a host of emerging midnight. But the current, extremely dangerous
technologies need to be monitored, and to the state of world affairs need not be permanent. The
extent possible anticipated, as the 21st century means for managing dangerous technology and
unfolds.” reducing global-scale risk exist; indeed, many of
them are well-known and within society’s reach, if
If anything, the velocity of technological change leaders pay reasonable attention to preserving the
has only increased in the past year, and so our long-term prospects of humanity, and if citizens
warning holds for 2018. But beyond monitoring demand that they do so.
advances in emerging technology, the board
believes that world leaders also need to seek better This is a dangerous time, but the danger is of
collective methods of managing those advances, our own making. Humankind has invented the
so the positive aspects of new technologies are implements of apocalypse; so can it invent the
encouraged and malign uses discovered and methods of controlling and eventually eliminating
countered. The sophisticated hacking of the them. This year, leaders and citizens of the world
“Internet of Things,” can move the Doomsday Clock and
including computer the world away from the metaphorical
systems that control The increasing pace of midnight of global catastrophe by
major financial and technological change taking these common-sense actions:
power infrastructure requires faster development
and access to more • US President Donald Trump should
of strong public institutions
than 20 billion refrain from provocative rhetoric
and new management
personal devices; regarding North Korea, recognizing
regimes.
the development of the impossibility of predicting North
autonomous weaponry Korean reactions.
that makes “kill” • The US and North Korean governments should
decisions without human supervision; and the open multiple channels of communication. At a
possible misuse of advances in synthetic biology, minimum, military-to-military communications
including the revolutionary Crispr gene-editing can help reduce the likelihood of inadvertent
tool, already pose potential global security risks. war on the Korean Peninsula. Keeping
Those risks could expand without strong public diplomatic channels open for talks without
institutions and new management regimes. The preconditions is another common-sense
increasing pace of technological change requires way to reduce tensions. As leading security
faster development of those tools. expert Siegfried Hecker of Stanford University
How to turn back the Clock. In 1953, former recently wrote: “Such talks should not be seen
Manhattan Project scientist and Bulletin editor as a reward or concession to Pyongyang, nor
Eugene Rabinowitch set the hands of the construed as signaling acceptance of a nuclear-
Doomsday Clock at two minutes to midnight, armed North Korea. They could, however,
writing, “The achievement of a thermonuclear deliver the message that while Washington
explosion by the Soviet Union, following on fully intends to defend itself and its allies
the heels of the development of ‘thermonuclear from any attack with a devastating retaliatory
devices’ in America, means that the time, dreaded response, it does not otherwise intend to attack
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists § 6North Korea or pursue regime change.” https:// Citizens should insist that their governments
thebulletin.org/time-insert-control-rods-north- acknowledge it and act accordingly.
korea11198
• Governments around the world should
• The world community should pursue, as a redouble their efforts to reduce greenhouse gas
short-term goal, the cessation of North Korea’s emissions so they go well beyond the initial,
nuclear weapon and ballistic missile tests. inadequate pledges under the Paris Agreement.
North Korea is the only country to violate the The temperature goal under that agreement—
norm against nuclear testing in 20 years. Over to keep warming well below 2 degrees Celsius
time, the United States should seek North above preindustrial levels—is consistent
Korea’s signature on the Comprehensive with consensus views on climate science, is
Nuclear Test Ban Treaty—and then, along with eminently achievable, and is economically
China, at long last also ratify the treaty. viable, provided that poorer countries are given
the support they need to make the post-carbon
• The Trump administration should abide by transition. But the time window for achieving
the terms of the Joint Comprehensive Plan this goal is rapidly closing.
of Action for Iran’s nuclear program unless
credible evidence emerges that Iran is not • The international community should establish
complying with the agreement or Iran agrees new protocols to discourage and penalize the
to an alternative approach misuse of information technology
that meets US national to undermine public trust in
security needs. The failure of world political institutions, in the media,
leaders to address in science, and in the existence
• The United States and the largest threats to of objective reality itself. Strong
Russia should discuss humanity’s future is and accountable institutions are
and adopt measures to lamentable—but that necessary to prevent deception
prevent peacetime military failure can be reversed. campaigns that are a real threat to
incidents along the borders effective democracies, reducing
of NATO. Provocative their ability to enact policies to
military exercises and address nuclear weapons, climate change, and
maneuvers hold the potential for crisis other global dangers.
escalation. Both militaries must exercise
restraint and professionalism, adhering to • The countries of the world should collaborate
all norms developed to avoid conflict and on creating institutions specifically assigned
accidental encounters. to explore and address potentially malign or
catastrophic misuses of new technologies,
• US and Russian leaders should return to the particularly as regards autonomous weaponry
negotiating table to resolve differences over that makes “kill” decisions without human
the INF treaty; to seek further reductions in supervision and advances in synthetic biology
nuclear arms; to discuss a lowering of the alert that could, if misused, pose a global threat.
status of the nuclear arsenals of both countries;
to limit nuclear modernization programs that The failure of world leaders to address the largest
threaten to create a new nuclear arms race; and threats to humanity’s future is lamentable—but
to ensure that new tactical or low-yield nuclear that failure can be reversed. It is two minutes to
weapons are not built and that existing tactical midnight, but the Doomsday Clock has ticked
weapons are never used on the battlefield. away from midnight in the past, and during the
next year, the world can again move it further from
• US citizens should demand, in all legal ways, apocalypse. The warning the Science and Security
climate action from their government. Climate Board now sends is clear, the danger obvious and
change is a real and serious threat to humanity.
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists § 7imminent. The opportunity to reduce the danger is
equally clear.
The world has seen the threat posed by the misuse
of information technology and witnessed the
vulnerability of democracies to disinformation.
But there is a flip side to the abuse of social media.
Leaders react when citizens insist they do so, and
citizens around the world can use the power of
the internet to improve the long-term prospects of
their children and grandchildren. They can insist
on facts, and discount nonsense. They can demand
action to reduce the existential threat of nuclear
war and unchecked climate change. They can seize
the opportunity to make a safer and saner world.
They can #rewindtheDoomsdayClock.
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists § 8Science and security board biographies
Rachel Bronson (ex officio SASB) is the Rod Ewing is the Frank Stanton Professor in
President and CEO of the Bulletin of the Atomic Nuclear Security in the Center for International
Scientists, where she oversees the publishing Security and Cooperation in the Freeman Spogli
programs, the management of the Doomsday Institute for International Studies and a Professor
Clock, and a growing set of activities around in the Department of Geological Sciences in
nuclear risk, climate change, and disruptive the School of Earth, Environmental and Energy
technologies. Before joining the Bulletin, she Sciences at Stanford University. Ewing’s research
served as vice president for Studies at The focuses on the back end of the nuclear fuel cycle,
Chicago Council on Global Affairs, adjunct mainly nuclear materials and the geochemistry
professor of “Global Energy” at the Kellogg School of radionuclides. He is the past president of
of Management, and senior fellow and director the International Union of Materials Research
of Middle East studies at the Council on Foreign Societies. Ewing has written extensively on issues
Relations, among other positions. Her book, related to nuclear waste management and is co-
Thicker than Oil: America’s Uneasy Partnership editor of Radioactive Waste Forms for the Future
with Saudi Arabia (Oxford University Press, 2006), and Uncertainty Underground: Yucca Mountain and
has been translated into Japanese and published the Nation’s High-Level Nuclear Waste. He received
in paperback. Her writings and commentary have the Lomonosov Medal of the Russian Academy of
appeared in outlets including Foreign Affairs, Sciences in 2006.
The New York Times, The Washington Post, “PBS
NewsHour,” “Charlie Rose,” and “The Daily Show.” Daniel Holz is an Associate Professor in Physics,
Bronson has served as a consultant to NBC News Astronomy & Astrophysics, the Enrico Fermi
and testified before the congressional Task Force Institute, and the Kavli Institute for Cosmological
on Anti-Terrorism and Proliferation Financing, Physics, at the University of Chicago. His research
Congress’s Joint Economic Committee, and the focuses on general relativity in the context of
9/11 Commission. astrophysics and cosmology. He is a member
of the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave
Lynn Eden is Senior Research Scholar (Emeritus) Observatory (LIGO) collaboration, and was part
at Stanford University’s Center for International of the team that announced the first detection
Security and Cooperation. Eden is also co-chair of of gravitational waves in early 2016. He received
US Pugwash and a member of the International a 2012 National Science Foundation CAREER
Pugwash Council. Her scholarly work focuses Award, the 2015 Quantrell Award for Excellence in
on the military and society; science, technology, Undergraduate Teaching, and the Breakthrough
and organizations; and US nuclear weapons Prize in Fundamental Physics in 2016, and was
history and policy. Eden’s Whole World on Fire: selected as a Kavli Fellow of the National Academy
Organizations, Knowledge, and Nuclear Weapons of Sciences in 2017. Holz received his PhD in
Devastation won the American Sociological physics from the University of Chicago and his AB
Association’s 2004 Robert K. Merton award for in physics from Princeton University.
best book in science and technology studies.
Her current research and writing (mostly Sivan Kartha is a Senior Scientist at Stockholm
historical) ask how a specific US military planning Environmental Institute whose research and
organization has enabled very good people to publications for the past 20 years have focused
plan what, if put into action, could or would result on technological options and policy strategies
in the deaths of tens or hundreds of millions for addressing climate change, concentrating
of people. In other words, how do US military most recently on equity and efficiency in the
officers make plans to fight and prevail in nuclear design of an international climate regime. He is
war? a co-Leader of SEI’s Gender and Social Equity
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists § 9Biographies (continued)
Programme, and co-Director of the Climate early universe, the nature of dark matter, general
Equity Reference Project. His current work deals relativity and neutrino astrophysics. He has
primarily with the economic, political, and ethical written 10 books, including the international
dimensions of equitably sharing the effort of an bestsellers The Physics of Star Trek, A Universe
ambitious global response to climate change. Dr. from Nothing, and his latest book, The Greatest
Kartha has also worked on mitigation scenarios, Story Ever Told—So Far, which was released
market mechanisms for climate actions, and the last year. He writes regularly for magazines
environmental and socioeconomic impacts of and newspapers including The New York Times
biomass energy. His work has enabled him to and The New Yorker, and frequently appears on
advise and collaborate with diverse organizations, radio and television, as well as, most recently,
including the UN Climate Convention Secretariat, in several feature films. Among his numerous
various United Nations and World Bank programs, awards for research and outreach, he was awarded
numerous government policy-making bodies the 2012 Public Service Award from the National
and agencies, foundations, and civil society Science Board for his contributions to the public
organizations throughout the developing and understanding of science. Krauss is the only
industrialized world. He served as a Coordinating physicist to have been awarded the three major
Lead Author in the preparation of the Fifth awards from the American Physical Society, the
Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental American Institute of Physics, and the American
Panel on Climate Change, released in 2014, co- Association of Physics Teachers.
leading the chapter on Equity and Sustainable
Development. Herb Lin is Senior Research Scholar for Cyber
Policy and Security at the Center for International
Elizabeth Kolbert has been a staff writer at The Security and Cooperation and Research Fellow
New Yorker since 1999 and has written extensively at the Hoover Institution, both at Stanford
on science and climate change to great acclaim. University. He is particularly interested in the use
Her most recent book, The Sixth Extinction, won of offensive operations in cyberspace, especially as
the 2015 Pulitzer Prize for general nonfiction. instruments of national policy.
Kolbert is also known for her book Field Notes
from a Catastrophe, based on her three-part series Suzet McKinney is the CEO/Executive Director
on global warming, “The Climate of Man,” which of the Illinois Medical District Commission. She
won the 2006 National Magazine Award for is the former Deputy Commissioner of the Bureau
Public Interest and the AAAS Advancement of of Public Health Preparedness and Emergency
Science Journalism Award. She is also a recipient Response at the Chicago Department of Public
of a Heinz Award (for educating the public Health, where she oversaw the emergency
about environmental issues) and a Guggenheim preparedness efforts for the department and
Fellowship. coordinated those efforts within the larger
spectrum of Chicago’s public safety activities.
Lawrence Krauss (Chair—Board of Sponsors, A sought-after expert in her field, McKinney
ex officio SASB) is the director of the Origins also provides support to the US Department of
Project at Arizona State University and Foundation Defense, Defense Threat Reduction Agency, to
Professor at ASU’s School of Earth and Space provide subject matter expertise in biological
Exploration and Physics Department. Krauss is terrorism preparedness to international agencies.
an internationally known theoretical physicist She is the author of the forthcoming text: Public
with wide research interests, including the Health Emergency Preparedness: Practical Solutions
interface between elementary particle physics for the Real World, published by Jones & Bartlett
and cosmology, where his studies include the Publishers (2018).
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists § 10Biographies (continued)
Steve Miller is the Director of the International (New Delhi). His research areas in pure physics
Security Program at the Belfer Center for Science include nuclear theory, particle physics, quantum
and International Affairs in Harvard University’s field theory, quantum Hall systems, anomalous
Kennedy School of Government, and he is a gauge theories, and Soliton physics. He has also
Fellow of the American Academy of Arts and worked on areas of public policy including higher
Sciences, where he is chair of the Committee on education, nuclear energy and disarmament. The
International Security Studies (CISS). Miller is latter body of work was recognized by the 2014
also Co-Chair of the US Pugwash Committee, Leo Szilard Lectureship Award by the American
and is a member of the Council of International Physical Society. His work covers nuclear weapon
Pugwash. Miller co-directs the Academy’s project accidents, civil defence, India’s nuclear doctrine,
on the Global Nuclear Future Initiative with the minimal deterrence and anti-missile and early
Bulletin’s Science and Security Board Chair, Robert warning systems. He has analyzed the Indo-US
Rosner. nuclear agreement and its impact on both India’s
civilian nuclear program and its nuclear arsenal.
Raymond Pierrehumbert is Halley Professor He has written about fissile material production in
of Physics at the University of Oxford. He was India and Pakistan and the radiological effects of
a lead author on the IPCC Third Assessment nuclear weapon accidents.
Report, and a co-author of the National Research
Council report on abrupt climate change. Robert Rosner (Chair) is the chair of the
He was awarded a John Simon Guggenheim Bulletin’s Science and Security Board and is
Fellowship in 1996, which was used to launch the William E. Wrather Distinguished Service
collaborative work on the climate of Early Mars Professor in the Departments of Astronomy
with collaborators in Paris. He is a Fellow of the & Astrophysics and Physics, and the Harris
American Geophysical Union (AGU), a Fellow School of Public Policy Studies at the University
of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, of Chicago. Rosner served as Director of
and has been named Chevalier de l’Ordre des Argonne National Laboratory, where he had also
Palmes Académiques by the Republic of France. served as Chief Scientist. His current scientific
Pierrehumbert’s central research interest is the use research is mostly in the areas of plasma
of fundamental physical principles to elucidate the astrophysics and astrophysical fluid dynamics
behavior of the present and past climates of Earth and magnetohydrodynamics; high energy density
and other planets, including the growing catalog physics; boundary mixing instabilities; and
of exoplanets. He leads the European Research computational physics. His policy-oriented work
Council Advance Grant project EXOCONDENSE. has focused on the future of nuclear power and
the back end of the nuclear fuel cycle, as well as
Ramamurti Rajaraman is an emeritus professor various aspects of electrifying the transport sector.
of physics at Jawaharlal Nehru University. He
is a founding member and former co-chair of Jennifer Sims is currently a senior fellow at
the International Panel on Fissile Materials. He the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and is
is also currently a member of the Asia Pacific writing a book on intelligence in international
Leadership Network, Council of the Pugwash politics. She is also a consultant on intelligence
Conference on Science & World Affairs, the and homeland security for private corporations
Permanent Monitoring Panel on Mitigation of and the US government. In 2008, the president
Terrorist Acts, World Federation of Scientists of the United States appointed her to the Public
(Erice, Italy), the Editorial Board of “Science and Interest Declassification Board, which advises
Global Security,” and of the Board of Governors of the president on the declassification policies of
the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies the US government. Sims received her MA and
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists § 11Biographies (continued)
her PhD from Johns Hopkins University’s School of Science, the American Geophysical Union,
of Advanced International Studies. In 1998, Sims and the American Meteorological Society. He
received the intelligence community’s highest has received both the Climate Communication
civilian award, the National Distinguished Service Prize and the Ambassador Award of the American
Medal. Geophysical Union, as well as awards from the
American Meteorological Society for both his
Susan Solomon is the Lee and Geraldine research and his popular book, The Forgiving Air:
Martin Professor of Environmental Studies at the Understanding Environmental Change.
Massachusetts Institute of Technology and was
the Founding Director of the MIT Environmental Sharon Squassoni is Research Professor at the
Solutions Initiative from 2014-2015. She is well Institute for International Science and Technology
known for pioneering work that explained why Policy, Elliott School of International Affairs, at
there is a hole in the Antarctic ozone layer and is the George Washington University. Previously,
the author of several influential scientific papers she directed the Proliferation Prevention Program
in climate science. Solomon received the 1999 US at the Center for Strategic and International
National Medal of Science, the nation’s highest Studies and was a senior scholar at the Carnegie
scientific award, in 1999. She has also received Endowment for International Peace, both in
the Grande Medaille of the French Academy Washington, DC. She has specialized in nuclear
of Sciences, the Blue Planet Prize in Japan, the nonproliferation, arms control and security policy
BBVA Frontiers of Knowledge Award, and the for three decades, serving in the US government
Volvo Environment Prize. She is a member at the Arms Control and Disarmament Agency,
of the US National Academy of Sciences, the the State Department, and the Congressional
French Academy of Sciences, and the Royal Research Service. She received a Bachelor of Arts
Society in the UK. She served as co-chair for the degree from the State University of New York at
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Albany, a master’s in public management from the
(IPCC) fourth climate science assessment report, University of Maryland, and a master’s in national
released in 2007. Time magazine named Solomon security strategy from the National War College.
as one of the 100 most influential people in the
world in 2008. David Titley is a Professor of Practice in
Meteorology and a Professor of International
Richard Somerville is Distinguished Professor Affairs at the Pennsylvania State University, and
Emeritus and Research Professor at Scripps the founding director of Penn State’s Center for
Institution of Oceanography, University of Solutions to Weather and Climate Risk. He served
California, San Diego. His research is focused on as a naval officer for 32 years and rose to the rank
critical physical processes in the climate system, of rear admiral. Dr. Titley’s career included duties
especially the role of clouds and the important as commander of the Naval Meteorology and
feedbacks that can occur as clouds change with Oceanography Command; oceanographer and
a changing climate. His broader interests include navigator of the Navy; and deputy assistant chief
all aspects of climate, including climate science of naval operations for information dominance.
outreach and the interface between science He also served as senior military assistant for
and public policy. He was a Coordinating Lead the director, Office of Net Assessment in the
Author of the Fourth Assessment Report of the Office of the Secretary of Defense. While serving
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in the Pentagon, Dr. Titley initiated and led
(IPCC); the IPCC shared the 2007 Nobel Peace the US Navy’s Task Force on Climate Change.
Prize equally with Al Gore. Somerville is a Fellow After retiring from the Navy, Dr. Titley served
of the American Association for the Advancement as the deputy undersecretary of commerce for
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists § 12Biographies (continued)
operations, the chief operating officer position reports on the American West; the consulting
at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric executive editor for the launch of Key West, a
Administration. Dr. Titley serves on numerous regional magazine start-up directed by renowned
advisory boards and National Academies of magazine guru Roger Black; and the top editor
Science committees, including the CNA Military for award-winning newsweeklies in San Francisco
Advisory Board and the Science and Security and Phoenix. In an earlier incarnation, he was
Board of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. Dr. an investigative reporter at the Houston Post and
Titley is a fellow of the American Meteorological covered the Persian Gulf War from Saudi Arabia
Society and was awarded an honorary doctorate and Iraq. Writers working at his direction have
from the University of Alaska, Fairbanks. won many major journalism contests, including
the George Polk Award, the Investigative Reporters
Jon Wolfsthal is Director of the Nuclear Crisis and Editors certificate, and the Sidney Hillman
Group, an independent project of Global Zero. Award for reporting on social justice issues.
Wolfsthal served previously as Special Assistant Mecklin holds a master in public administration
to the President of the United States for National degree from Harvard’s Kennedy School of
Security Affairs and senior director at the Government.
National Security Council for arms control and
nonproliferation. During his time in government
he was involved in almost every aspect of US
nuclear weapons, arms control, nonproliferation
and security policy. Previously, Wolfsthal was the
Deputy Director of the Center for Nonproliferation
Studies at the Monterey Institute of International
Studies, and served for three years as special
advisor to Vice President Biden on issues of
nuclear security and nonproliferation. He served
in several capacities during the 1990s at the US
Department of Energy, including an on-the-ground
assignment in North Korea during 1995-96. With
Joseph Cirincione, he is the author of Deadly
Arsenals: Tracking Weapons of Mass Destruction.
He is a non-resident fellow with the Carnegie
Endowment for International Peace and with the
Managing the Atom Project at Harvard University.
Editor
John Mecklin is the editor-in-chief of the Bulletin
of the Atomic Scientists. Previously, Mecklin was
editor-in-chief of Miller-McCune (since renamed
Pacific Standard), an award-winning national
magazine that focused on research-based solutions
to major policy problems. Over the preceding
15 years, he was also: the editor of High Country
News, a nationally acclaimed magazine that
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists § 13About the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists engages The Bulletin’s signature strength is its capacity
science leaders, policy makers, and the to synthesize and inform by linking critical
interested public on the topics of nuclear risk, issues, treaty negotiations, and scientific
climate change, and disruptive technologies. assessments to threats represented by the iconic
We do this through our award-winning journal, Doomsday Clock. The Clock attracts more
iconic Doomsday Clock, public-access website, daily visitors to our site than any other feature,
and regular set of convenings. With smart, and commands worldwide attention when the
vigorous prose, multimedia presentations, and Bulletin issues periodic assessments of global
information graphics, the Bulletin puts issues threats and solutions.
and events into context and provides fact-based
debates and assessments. For more than 70 In 2007 the Bulletin won the National Magazine
years, the Bulletin has bridged the technology Award for General Excellence, the magazine
divide between scientific research, foreign industry equivalent of an Oscar for Best
policy, and public engagement. Picture. The Bulletin also was named one of
four 2009 finalists for the Lumity Technology
The Bulletin was founded in 1945 by Manhattan Leadership Award, presented by Accenture
Project scientists who “could not remain to a nonprofit organization that is effectively
aloof to the consequences of their work.” The applying innovative technologies. Today, the
organization’s early years chronicled the dawn Bulletin supplements its cutting-edge journalism
of the nuclear age and the birth of the scientists’ with interactive infographics and videos, and
movement, as told by the men and women who amplifies its messages through social media
built the atomic bomb and then lobbied with platforms.
both technical and humanist arguments for its
abolition. To advance the Bulletin as a thriving public
forum over the next 70 years, we are opening
Today, the Bulletin is an independent, nonprofit more channels between scientific and policy
501(c)(3) organization. With our international leaders as we increase our outreach to
network of board members and experts, we supporters all over the world. Two partnerships
assess scientific advancements that involve both are key to these efforts—one with the
benefits and risks to humanity, with the goal of University of Chicago’s Harris School of Public
influencing public policy to protect our planet Policy and the other with Routledge, publisher
and all its inhabitants. of our digital journal since January 2016.
The Bulletin’s website is a robust public and See more at: https://thebulletin.org
research-oriented source of detailed reports
and cogent analysis from the scientists and
experts who are directly involved. It receives
an average of more than 230,000 visits per
month. The bimonthly magazine, which can be
found in more than 15,000 leading universities
and institutions worldwide, attracts a large
number of influential readers. About half of the
Bulletin’s website and journal readers reside
outside the United States. Half of the visitors to
its website are under the age of 35.
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists § 14Timeline of Doomsday Clock changes
2017 IT IS TWO AND A HALF to modernize their nuclear triads—thereby
MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT undermining existing nuclear weapons treaties.
For the last two years, the minute hand “The clock ticks now at just three minutes to
of the Doomsday Clock stayed set at three midnight because international leaders are
minutes before the hour, the closest it had failing to perform their most important duty—
been to midnight since the early 1980s. In its ensuring and preserving the health and vitality
two most recent annual announcements on the of human civilization.”
Clock, the Science and Security Board warned:
“The probability of global catastrophe is very 2012 IT IS 5 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT
high, and the actions needed to reduce the “The challenges to rid the world of
risks of disaster must be taken very soon.” In nuclear weapons, harness nuclear
2017, we find the danger to be even greater, the power, and meet the nearly inexorable climate
need for action more urgent. It is two and a half disruptions from global warming are complex
minutes to midnight, the Clock is ticking, global and interconnected. In the face of such
danger looms. Wise public officials should act complex problems, it is difficult to see where
immediately, guiding humanity away from the the capacity lies to address these challenges.”
brink. If they do not, wise citizens must step Political processes seem wholly inadequate; the
forward and lead the way. potential for nuclear weapons use in regional
conflicts in the Middle East, Northeast Asia,
2016 IT IS STILL 3 MINUTES TO and South Asia are alarming; safer nuclear
MIDNIGHT reactor designs need to be developed and built,
“Last year, the Science and Security and more stringent oversight, training, and
Board moved the Doomsday Clock forward attention are needed to prevent future disasters;
to three minutes to midnight, noting: ‘The the pace of technological solutions to address
probability of global catastrophe is very high, climate change may not be adequate to meet
and the actions needed to reduce the risks the hardships that large-scale disruption of the
of disaster must be taken very soon.’ That climate portends.
probability has not been reduced. The Clock
ticks. Global danger looms. Wise leaders should 2010 IT IS 6 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT
act—immediately.” International cooperation rules the day.
Talks between Washington and Moscow
2015 IT IS 3 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT for a follow-on agreement to the Strategic
“Unchecked climate change, global Arms Reduction Treaty are nearly complete,
nuclear weapons modernizations, and more negotiations for further reductions
and outsized nuclear weapons arsenals pose in the U.S. and Russian nuclear arsenal are
extraordinary and undeniable threats to the already planned. Additionally, Barack Obama
continued existence of humanity, and world becomes the first U.S. president to publicly call
leaders have failed to act with the speed or for a nuclear-weapon-free world. The dangers
on the scale required to protect citizens from posed by climate change are still great, but
potential catastrophe. These failures of political there are pockets of progress. Most notably: At
leadership endanger every person on Earth.” Copenhagen, the developing and industrialized
Despite some modestly positive developments countries agree to take responsibility for carbon
in the climate change arena, current efforts are emissions and to limit global temperature rise
entirely insufficient to prevent a catastrophic to 2 degrees Celsius.
warming of Earth. Meanwhile, the United States
and Russia have embarked on massive programs
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists § 15Timeline of Doomsday Clock changes (cont.)
2007 IT IS 5 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT resurgent Russia could provide as much of a
The world stands at the brink of a threat as the Soviet Union. Such talk slows the
second nuclear age. The United States rollback in global nuclear forces; more than
and Russia remain ready to stage a nuclear 40,000 nuclear weapons remain worldwide.
attack within minutes, North Korea conducts There is also concern that terrorists could
a nuclear test, and many in the international exploit poorly secured nuclear facilities in the
community worry that Iran plans to acquire former Soviet Union.
the Bomb. Climate change also presents a dire
challenge to humanity. Damage to ecosystems 1991 IT IS 17 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT
is already taking place; flooding, destructive With the Cold War officially over,
storms, increased drought, and polar ice melt the United States and Russia begin
are causing loss of life and property. making deep cuts to their nuclear arsenals.
The Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty greatly
2002 IT IS 7 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT reduces the number of strategic nuclear
Concerns regarding a nuclear terrorist weapons deployed by the two former
attack underscore the enormous amount adversaries. Better still, a series of unilateral
of unsecured—and sometimes unaccounted initiatives remove most of the intercontinental
for—weapon-grade nuclear materials located ballistic missiles and bombers in both countries
throughout the world. Meanwhile, the United from hair-trigger alert. “The illusion that tens of
States expresses a desire to design new nuclear thousands of nuclear weapons are a guarantor
weapons, with an emphasis on those able to of national security has been stripped away,” the
destroy hardened and deeply buried targets. Bulletin declares.
It also rejects a series of arms control treaties
and announces it will withdraw from the Anti- 1990 IT IS 10 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT
Ballistic Missile Treaty. As one Eastern European country
after another (Poland, Czechoslovakia,
1998 IT IS 9 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT Hungary, Romania) frees itself from Soviet
India and Pakistan stage nuclear control, Soviet General Secretary Mikhail
weapons tests only three weeks apart. Gorbachev refuses to intervene, halting the
“The tests are a symptom of the failure of the ideological battle for Europe and significantly
international community to fully commit itself diminishing the risk of all-out nuclear war. In
to control the spread of nuclear weapons— late 1989, the Berlin Wall falls, symbolically
and to work toward substantial reductions in ending the Cold War. “Forty-four years after
the numbers of these weapons,” a dismayed Winston Churchill’s ‘Iron Curtain’ speech,
Bulletin reports. Russia and the United States the myth of monolithic communism has been
continue to serve as poor examples to the rest shattered for all to see,” the Bulletin proclaims.
of the world. Together, they still maintain 7,000
warheads ready to fire at each other within 15 1988 IT IS 6 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT
minutes. The United States and Soviet Union sign
the historic Intermediate-Range Nuclear
1995 IT IS 14 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT Forces Treaty, the first agreement to actually
Hopes for a large post-Cold War peace ban a whole category of nuclear weapons. The
dividend and a renouncing of nuclear leadership shown by President Ronald Reagan
weapons fade. Particularly in the United and Soviet Premier Mikhail Gorbachev makes
States, hard-liners seem reluctant to soften the treaty a reality, but public opposition to U.S.
their rhetoric or actions, as they claim that a nuclear weapons in Western Europe inspires it.
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists § 16You can also read
