TUNISIA ECONOMIC MONITOR - Rebuilding the Potential of Tunisian Firms Fall 2020 - World Bank Document
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Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized
Middle East and North Africa Region
Fall 2020
Rebuilding the Potential
of Tunisian Firms
MONITOR
TUNISIA ECONOMIC
Tunisia
Economic Monitor
Rebuilding the Potential
of Tunisian Firms
With a Special Focus on
Rebuilding the Potential of Tunisia’s Firms
Fall 2020
Middle East and North Africa Region
© 2020 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or currency of the data included in this work and does not assume responsibility for any errors, omissions, or discrepancies in the information, or liability with respect to the use of or failure to use the information, methods, processes, or conclusions set forth. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Nothing herein shall constitute or be construed or considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges and immunities of The World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved. Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given. Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org. Cover photos used with the permission of ShutterStock.com. Publication design and layout by The Word Express, Inc.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Abbreviations and Acronyms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . v
Acknowledgements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .vii
Executive Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ix
Résumé Exécutif . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xiii
صخلم . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xvii
1. Recent Economic Developments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
Growth and Employment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1
The External Sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
Fiscal Policy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5
Monetary Policy and Inflation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
2. Outlook and Risks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11
Special Focus: Rebuilding the Potential of Tunisia’s Firms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
List of Figures
Figure 1 Growth is Expected to Contract by 9.2 Percent in 2020 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1
Figure 2 Economies that are More Dependent on Tourism have Tended to Experience
a Sharper Downturn… . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
Figure 3 Contributing to Tunisia’s Performance, which is Considerably Below Peers and
Trading Partners . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
Figure 4 The Current Account Deficit and Reserves Improve in 2020… . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
Figure 5 … as Imports Decline Faster than Exports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4
Figure 6 The Fiscal Deficit and Debt Levels Increased in 2020 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
Figure 7 Tunisia is Experiencing a Larger Increase in the Fiscal Deficit than some of its
Regional Peers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
iiiFigure 8 Most of the Increase in 2020 Budget Financing Needs is Due to the Costs of the Pandemic… . . .5
Figure 9 But Structural Weaknesses, such as a Large and Growing Wage Bill,
Continue to be a Challenge . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6
Figure 10 Declining Inflation Set the Stage for Policy Rate Cuts in 2020… . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
Figure 11 …Supporting Private Sector Credit Growth in the Second Half of the Year. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
Figure 12 Even though GDP Growth is Expected to Rebound in 2021, Output is Forecast to
Remain Below Pre-Pandemic Levels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
Figure 13 Bureaucracy, Bribes and Banking . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
Figure 14 Annual Employment Growth Rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16
Figure 15 A Steady Decline in Investment is Tilting Tunisia towards a Consumption Based Economy . . . . 17
Figure 16 Tunisian Firms are Investing and Innovating Less than Before . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
Figure 17 Investment is Highest in the Center-East Regions... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .17
Figure 18 … while R&D has been Most Stable Amongst Large Firms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .17
Figure 19 Exports According to Type of Growth Dynamics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
Figure 20 The Context for Exporting Firms has Deteriorated . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
Figure 21 Reliance on Domestic Markets is Highest in the South East and South West. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
Figure 22 Labor Productivity has Continued to Decline . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
Figure 23 Within Sector Productivity Dispersions have Increased in All Sectors,
with the Exception of Textiles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .20
List of Tables
Table 1 Selected Macroeconomic Indicators, 2017–2022 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
Table 2 Outlook for Selected Macroeconomic Indicators, 2020–2022 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
List of Boxes
Box 1 How is COVID-19 Affecting the Poor? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
Box 2 Government and Central Bank Measures to Support Households and
Firms during the COVID-19 Crisis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9
Box 3 Impact of the COVID Crisis on the Tunisian Private Sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13
Box 4 Bright Spots in Tunisia’s Firm Landscape Amid a Generally Gloomier Trend . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
Box 5 Is the Decline in Innovation Amongst Tunisian Firms Universal? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
iv TUNISIA ECONOMIC MONITOR – REBUILDING THE POTENTIAL OF TUNISIAN FIRMSABBREVIATIONS AND
ACRONYMS
BoP Balance of Payments MENA Middle East and North Africa
BCT Banque Centrale de Tunisie MSME Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises
CAD Current-Account Deficit NPL Non-Performing Loan
CPI Consumer Price Index PPP Purchasing Power Parity
FDI Foreign Direct Investment REER Real Effective Exchange Rate
GDP Gross Domestic Product SOE State Owned Enterprise
GEP Global Economic Prospects US United States
GFSM Government Finance Statistics Manual USD United States Dollar
IMF International Monetary Fund WDI World Development Indicators
INS Institute National de Statistiques WEO World Economic Outlook
LMIC Low Middle Income Countries WB World Bank
MEFI Ministere d’Economie, Finances et YoY Year on Year
Investissements
vACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
T
he Tunisia Economic Monitor (TEM) presents IFC). Helpful comments were received from Gabriel
timely and concise assessments of current Sensenbrenner (Program Leader, EMNDR), Paul
economic trends in Tunisia in light of the Moreno-Lopez (Lead Economist, MTI) and Fatma
country’s broader development challenges. Each edition Marrakchi (Consultant, MTI). It was prepared under
includes a section on recent economic developments the direction of Jesko Hentschel (Country Director,
and a discussion of the economic outlook, followed by MNC01), Eric Le Borgne (Practice Manager, MTI) and
a special focus section drawing on recent World Bank Tony Verheijen (Country Manager, MNTCN). The team
analytics on Tunisia. The focus section in this edition is grateful to Muna Salim (Senior Program Assistant,
discusses the evolution of firm landscape using the MTI) and Olfa Limam (Program Assistant, MNCTN) for
recently published enterprise survey for Tunisia. The their administrative support.
report is intended for a wide audience, including policy The findings, interpretations, and conclusions
makers, business leaders, financial market participants, expressed in this Monitor are those of World Bank
and the community of analysts and professionals staff and do not necessarily reflect the views of the
engaged in Tunisia. The Tunisia Economic Monitor is Executive Board of the World Bank or the governments
a product of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) they represent.
unit in the Macroeconomics, Trade & Investment (MTI) For information about the World Bank and its
Global Practice in the World Bank Group. activities in Tunisia, please visit www.worldbank. org/
The report was prepared by Shireen Mahdi en/country/Tunisia (English) or www.albankaldawli.
(Senior Economist, MTI), Ali Ibrahim Almelhem (ET org/ar/country/tunisia (Arabic).
Consultant, MTI) and Natsuko Obayashi (Consultant, For questions and comments on the content
MTI). The team included Filip Jolevski (ET Consultant, of this publication, please contact Shireen Mahdi
DEC), Nazim Tamkoc (Economist, DEC), Safia (smahdi@worldbank.org) or Eric Le Borgne
Hachicha (Senior Financial Sector Specialist, FCI), (eleborgne@worldbank.org).
Mihasonirina Andrianaivo (Senior Financial Sector The cutoff date for this edition of the TEM was
Specialist, FCI), Mouna Hamden (Operations Officer, December 11, 2020.
viiEXECUTIVE SUMMARY
As 2020 draws to a close, the depth of the pandemic’s days a year earlier), strengthening a much needed
impact on the Tunisian economy is becoming more external buffer at this time of heightened risk.
apparent. Tunisia is expecting a sharper decline in The policy response, in this challenging context,
growth than most of its regional peers, having entered has been broadly adequate. Declining inflation set
this crisis whilst already experiencing slow growth the stage for interest rate cuts in 2020, supporting
and rising debt levels. Output is expected to contract moderate growth in credit to the economy. Fiscal
by 9.2 percent this year. policy has also been accommodating. The authorities
With this, some of the past gains in job creation responded to the pandemic with a package of fiscal
and poverty reduction will be lost as unemployment measures to support households and businesses.
edges up and the share of the population vulnerable These measures, along with revenue losses due to the
to falling into poverty increases. Specifically, poverty is downturn, were behind 82 percent in the fiscal deficit to
estimated to increase from 14 percent of the population 10.5 percent of GDP (up from around 3 percent of GDP
pre-Covid to 21 percent in 2020, with most of the in the original 2020 budget). As expected, the increase
impact being felt by the poorest households, which in financing needs has worsened debt vulnerabilities.
are concentrated in Tunisia’s Center West and South Public debt is forecast to rise from 72 percent of GDP
East regions. As for the most vulnerable individuals, in 2019 to around 89 percent of GDP in 2020.
they are likely to be women, living in large households,
without access to health care and employed without Outlook and Risks
contracts.
A 15 percent reduction in exports by September It is clear that the pandemic’s impact on the economy
2020 (YoY) contributed to the downturn as weak global has been severe and that the costs of mitigating
demand depressed industrial and tourism exports. its effects have worsened Tunisia’s already weak
Despite this, the current account deficit is expected to public finances. The outlook is also challenging and
shrink to 7 percent of GDP in 2020, against 8.8 percent uncertain. After an expected 9.2 percent contraction
of GDP in 2019, as remittances picked up and imports in 2020, growth is temporarily expected to accelerate
dropped faster than exports. With a lower current to 5.8 percent as the pandemic’s effects begin to
account deficit, the external position showed some abate, before returning to a more subdued growth
resilience to the economic shock. At USD 7.8 billion as trajectory at around 2 percent, reflecting pre-existing
of end-October, foreign exchange reserves increased structural weaknesses. Downside risks to this outlook
to the equivalent of 147 days of import (against 103 are significant given the extent of the ongoing second
ixwave of the pandemic and its impact on Tunisia’s Restarting Growth by Rebuilding the
main trading partners. In line with this, the current Potential of Tunisia’s Firms
account deficit is expected to narrow to 6.3 by 2022
as export industries begin to recover, but at a sluggish The special focus section in this edition of the Tunisia
and uncertain pace. The fiscal outlook points to a tight Economic Monitor draws on the recently published
budgetary setting and limited room for stimulus as the enterprise survey for Tunisia to discuss the latest
impact of the pandemic spills into 2021. The fiscal evidence on firm performance and present priorities
deficit is expected to decline to around 4.5 percent for a growing and more productive private sector.
of GDP by 2022 but risks from a still growing wage For much of the past decade, stunted growth and
bill, subsidies, pensions and underperforming state- a less dynamic private sector have contributed
owned enterprises may compromise recovery efforts to persistently high levels of unemployment. In
if not managed proactively. parallel, a vision of the State as a provider of jobs,
In this difficult context, a coherent plan for in the absence of private opportunities, has led to
restarting the economy and restoring the credibility of a ballooning public sector wage bill and dwindling
the macroeconomic framework is a critical next step fiscal space to invest in the economy. The COVID-19
for Tunisia to successfully navigate its way through pandemic has compounded these existing structural
this crisis. difficulties. In this context, dynamizing firms and their
The first priority is to save lives by controlling job creation potential is more urgent than before if
the pandemic and preparing to make COVID-19 Tunisia is to begin recovering from the COVID-19
vaccines available to the population. The authorities crisis.
handled the first wave of the pandemic well, avoiding The analysis finds that Tunisian firms have lost
a large outbreak through an early and strictly much of the spring in their step. Looking back over
enforced lockdown. A second round of infections is the seven year period between 2013 and 2019, the
now far exceeding the first and a set of new, albeit less data shows a number of areas where the environment
stringent, containment measures are in place. Work is has improved and where Tunisia performs better than
also underway to prepare for the rollout of vaccines regional peers. But more generally, the evidence
as Tunisia participates in the World Bank initiative to shows a weakened private sector landscape. Firms
finance the purchase and distribution of COVID-19 are investing less and are less innovative: the share of
vaccines, tests, and treatments.1 firms investing in fixed assets fell from 44 in 2013 to
Second, restoring the credibility of the 30 percent in 2019, with the decline being registered
macroeconomic framework will lay the foundation for across all sectors. Similarly, the share of Tunisian
a more durable recovery in growth. In particular, this firms introducing a new product or service has halved
requires emphasis on financing the recovery more from 28 percent in 2013 to 14 percent in 2019. Firms
sustainably going forward to manage debt levels. This are also less export oriented than before. The share
means restructuring public finances by reducing the of exporting firms decreased from 38 percent in 2013
size of the wage bill, shifting social assistance from to 32 percent in 2019. This occurred as trade related
subsidies to more targeted transfers and addressing indicators deteriorated: the number of days to clear
fiscal risks from SOEs to free up resources for public exports through customs more than doubled from 3
investment and the recovery. days in 2013 to 7 days in 2019. The situation is worse
Lastly, with limited fiscal space and a fragile for imports, whereby the number of days to clear
external position, structural reforms to boost private imports through customs jumped from 7 in 2013 to
sector performance must form the backbone of the 16 days in 2019. Lastly, firms are less productive: real
recovery effort. The pace of the recovery will be
stunted in the absence of an ambitious program to 1
https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/
restart growth at the firm level. This is the topic of the factsheet/2020/10/15/world-bank-group-vaccine-
special focus section of the report. announcement---key-facts.
x TUNISIA ECONOMIC MONITOR – REBUILDING THE POTENTIAL OF TUNISIAN FIRMSannual productivity growth, was negative in 2013 at include increasing the ability of new firms to enter
-4.5 percent and deteriorated further to -5.1 percent by the market and to offer new products or services,
2019. And although some sectors have been adding tackling structural bottlenecks that complicate
jobs to the economy, these jobs are not being created firms’ access to finance, dealing with the significant
in areas with the highest levels of unemployment. deterioration in customs performance and building
The report concludes by discussing some a clear vision for innovation policy to nurture sectors
of the most urgent structural measures needed to where innovation and comparative advantage are
help bring the private sector back on track. These beginning to emerge.
Executive Summary xixii TUNISIA ECONOMIC MONITOR – REBUILDING THE POTENTIAL OF TUNISIAN FIRMS
RÉSUMÉ EXÉCUTIF
Récentes Evolutions touristique. En dépit de cela, on s’attend à ce que
le déficit du compte courant tombe à 7% du PIB en
Alors que l’année 2020 touche à sa fin, l’ampleur 2020 contre 8,8% du PIB en 2019, grâce à la plus
des répercussions de la pandémie sur l’économie grande contribution des envois de fonds et parce que
tunisienne se fait de plus en plus ressentir. La Tunisie les importations ont chuté plus rapidement que les
doit faire face à une baisse de croissance plus exportations.
marquée que celle des autres pays homologues La baisse du déficit du compte courant a permis
de la région, la crise se rajoute à une situation de à la position extérieure de faire preuve de plus de
croissance lente et d’endettement en hausse. A la résilience aux chocs. Au 31 octobre, les réserves de
production qui devrait se contracter de 9,2% en 2020. change de la Tunisie se sont élevées à 7,8 milliards de
S’ajoute à cela la perte des gains réalisés en dollars, c’est-à-dire à près de 147 jours d’importation
matière de création d’emploi et de réduction de la (contre 103 jours une année auparavant), contribuant
pauvreté, de par la plus forte exacerbation du chômage ainsi au renforcement des réserves extérieures, très
et de la paupérisation des segments vulnérables de la utiles en ces temps de crise.
population. Plus particulièrement, il est attendu que Dans ce contexte pour le moins critique, la
la pauvreté passe de 14% de la population — taux réponse politique a été globalement adéquate. Le
enregistré avant l’avènement de la pandémie — à 21% déclin de l’inflation a créé les conditions favorables
de la population en 2020, avec de plus importantes à une réduction des taux d’intérêt et au soutien à
répercussions dans les régions du Centre-Ouest la croissance (modérée) du crédit à l’économie. La
et du Sud-Est du pays. Parmi les segments les plus politique budgétaire a également été conciliante.
vulnérables, on compte essentiellement les femmes Les autorités ont réagi à la pandémie en proposant
qui vivent en familles nombreuses, dépourvues un paquet de mesures budgétaires en appui aux
d’accès aux soins de santé et souvent employées en entreprises et aux ménages. Ces mesures, ajoutées aux
dehors de toute forme contractuelle. pertes de revenus engendrées par le ralentissement
Le secteur des exportations a considérablement économique, ont été en grande partie responsables
contribué au ralentissement : en septembre 2020, il a de l’augmentation du déficit budgétaire à 10,5% du
enregistré une baisse de 15% en glissement annuel, PIB (il était à près de 3% du PIB dans le budget de
en raison du fléchissement de la demande mondiale 2020). Sans surprise, l’augmentation des besoins de
et de l’affaiblissement des secteurs industriel et financement a exacerbé la vulnérabilité liée à la dette.
xiiiOn estime que la dette publique augmenterait à 89% décrétées aussitôt que la pandémie a frappé et à
du PIB en 2020, comparativement à 72% du PIB en leur stricte application. Mais la deuxième vague
2019. dépasse de loin la première et de nouvelles mesures
de confinement sont instaurées, quoique moins
strictes que les premières. Beaucoup d’efforts sont
Perspectives et risques également entrepris pour préparer le déploiement de
vaccins, la Tunisie étant membre de l’initiative de la
Le constat de l’impact de la pandémie sur l’économie Banque Mondiale pour le financement de l’achat et de
tunisienne a été sévère et les coûts d’atténuation ont la distribution de vaccins, de tests et de traitements.2
davantage nui aux finances publiques du pays, déjà C’est également en réhabilitant la crédibilité
particulièrement dégradées. Aussi, les perspectives du cadre macroéconomique qu’on arrive à jeter
s’annoncent difficiles et incertaines. Après une bases nécessaires à une reprise plus durable de
contraction attendue de 9,2% en 2020, la croissance la croissance. Plus particulièrement, il s’agit de
devrait temporairement s’accélérer pour se situer à mettre l’accent sur le financement durable de la
5,8% en 2021 à mesure que les effets de la pandémie relance, de manière qui permet de gérer les niveaux
commencent à s’atténuer, avant de revenir à une d’endettement. Cela exige de restructurer les finances
trajectoire plus modérée de près de 2% d’ici à 2022, publiques en endiguant la masse salariale, en faisant
en raison des défaillances structurelles préexistantes. passer l’aide sociale des subventions aux transferts
Les risques à la baisse qui pèsent sur ces perspectives ciblés et en maîtrisant les risques budgétaires
sont importants, au vu de l’ampleur de la deuxième induits par les entreprises publiques, le tout dans
vague de pandémie qui continue de sévir et de son l’objectif de dégager plus de ressources en faveur de
impact sur les principaux partenaires commerciaux l’investissement public et de la relance.
de la Tunisie. Dans le même ordre d’idées, on s’attend Au vu de l’espace budgétaire limité et de la
à ce que le déficit du compte courant commence position extérieure fragile du pays, le pivot du plan
à s’améliorer avec la reprise des exportations, de relance réside dans l’engagement de réformes
quoiqu’à un rythme lent et incertain. Les perspectives structurelles visant à stimuler les performances
budgétaires misent sur un cadre budgétaire serré et du secteur privé. La relance se trouverait freinée
une marge de relance budgétaire limitée, l’impact en l’absence de programme ambitieux qui ravive
de la pandémie devant s’étendre jusqu’en 2021. Les la croissance des entreprises. Cette question est
risques budgétaires liés à la croissance incessante explicitée dans la section ‘’Focus spécial’’ du présent
de la masse salariale, aux subventions, aux retraites rapport.
et à la faible performance des entreprises publiques
commencent à se faire concrètement sentir et, à
défaut d’être gérés de manière proactive, risquent de Relance de la croissance et
compromettre les efforts de relèvement engagés. reconstruction du potentiel des
Devant cette conjoncture difficile, la entreprises tunisiennes
prochaine mesure importante que la Tunisie se doit
d’entreprendre pour passer avec succès au travers La section ‘’Focus Spécial’’ de la présente édition du
de cette crise consiste à élaborer un programme Moniteur Economique — Tunisie s’approfondit sur les
cohérent de relance de l’économie et de réhabilitation résultats de l’enquête récemment menée auprès d’un
de la crédibilité du cadre macroéconomique. ensemble d’entreprises tunisiennes, pour débattre des
La première priorité consiste, bien sûr, à sauver dernières données disponibles sur la performance
des vies, à travers le contrôle de la pandémie et la des entreprises et déterminer les priorités dont il
mise à disposition, de la population, de vaccins contre faut tenir compte pour relancer la croissance et la
le virus Covid-19. Les autorités ont réussi à bien gérer
la première vague de la pandémie et à endiguer 2
https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/factsheet/2020/10/15/
la contagion, grâce aux mesures de confinement world-bank-group-vaccine-announcement---key-facts
xiv TUNISIA ECONOMIC MONITOR – REBUILDING THE POTENTIAL OF TUNISIAN FIRMSproductivité du secteur privé. Au cours de la majeure 2013 à 14% en 2019. Les entreprises sont moins
partie de la décennie écoulée, les principales causes tournées vers l’exportation qu’avant et le pourcentage
du chômage ont été attribuées au ralentissement d’entreprises exportatrices est passé de 38% en 2013
de la croissance et à l’atonie du secteur privé. à 32% en 2019. Cela a coïncidé avec la détérioration
Au même temps et en l’absence d’opportunités des indicateurs commerciaux : le nombre de jours
privées, l’Etat a continué à être considéré comme nécessaires au dédouanement des exportations a
le principal pourvoyeur d’emplois, alourdissant ainsi plus que doublé, passant de 3 jours en 2013 à 7jours
la masse salariale du secteur public et réduisant en 2019. La situation est pire pour les importations,
l’espace budgétaire qui aurait pu servir à investir où le nombre de jours nécessaires au dédouanement
dans l’économie. La pandémie Covid-19 est venue des importations est passé de 7 jours en 2013 à 16
exacerber ces difficultés structurelles existantes. jours en 2019. Les entreprises sont également de
Dans ce contexte, il devient plus que jamais urgent de moins en moins productives : la croissance annuelle
dynamiser les entreprises et de booster leur potentiel réelle de la productivité a été négative en 2013, de
de création d’emplois pour que le pays puisse enfin l’ordre de –4,5% et a empiré en 2019, en tombant à
se remettre de la crise liée à la pandémie Covid-19. –5,1%. Certes, certains secteurs ont réussi à créer
L’analyse a révélé que les entreprises des emplois dans l’économie, mais jamais dans les
tunisiennes ont perdu beaucoup de leur ressort. régions où le chômage est le plus élevé.
Les données relatives aux sept dernières années — Le rapport conclut en examinant quelques-
de 2013 et 2019 — montrent qu’il existe bon nombre unes des mesures structurelles les plus urgentes à
de domaines où l’environnement s’est amélioré et introduire pour aider à remettre le secteur privé sur les
où la Tunisie a pu être plus performante que ses rails. Il s’agit, notamment, d’accroître les capacités des
pairs régionaux. Mais dans l’ensemble, ces mêmes nouvelles entreprises à entrer sur le marché et à y offrir
données montrent à voir un secteur privé affaibli, où de nouveaux produits ou services, de lutter contre les
les entreprises sont moins enclines à investir et à goulots d’étranglement structurels qui compliquent
innover : la proportion d’entreprises investissant dans l’accès des entreprises au financement, de faire face
des immobilisations est passée de 44% en 2013 à à la détérioration des services douaniers et d’élaborer
30% en 2019 et le repli est caractéristique de tous les une vision claire de la politique d’innovation, en
secteurs. De manière similaire, la part des entreprises soutien aux secteurs où les exigences en matière
tunisiennes introduisant un nouveau produit ou d’innovation et d’avantages comparatifs commencent
service a diminué de moitié, passant de 28% en à prendre de l’importance.
Résumé Exécutif xvxvi TUNISIA ECONOMIC MONITOR – REBUILDING THE POTENTIAL OF TUNISIAN FIRMS
ملخص
(مقابل 301أيام يف العام السابق) ،مام أدى إىل تعزيز االحتياطيات صخلم
الوقائية الخارجية و هو أمر تعترب تونس يف أمس الحاجة إليه يف
هذا الوقت الذي تتزايد فيه املخاطر. مع اقرتاب سنة 0202من نهايتها ،أصبح عمق تأثري الوباء عىل
و يف هذا السياق الصعب ،تعترب استجابة السياسات العامة لألزمة االقتصاد التونيس أكرث وضو ًحا .حيث تشري التوقعات إىل أن تونس
مالمئة إىل حد كبري .حيث أدى تراجع نسب التضخم إىل متهيد ستسجل انخفاضً ا حادًا يف نسبة النمو مقارنة بأغلب نظراءها عىل
الطريق أمام خفض أسعار الفائدة يف ،0202و هو ما أسهم املستوى اإلقليمي ،مبا أنها دخلت هذه األزمة و هي تعاين أصال من
بدوره يف دعم منو حجم القروض املقدمة لفائدة لالقتصاد .كام بطئ النمو و ارتفاع نسب التداين .كام أنه من املتوقع أن ينكمش
تعترب السياسة املالية املتبعة مالمئة .و ملواجهة آثار الوباء اتخذت اإلنتاج بنسبة 2.9يف املائة خالل هذه السنة .باإلضافة إىل ذلك،
السلطات حزمة من اإلجراءات املالية لدعم العائالت والرشكات. سوف تخرس تونس بعض املكاسب السابقة يف عالقة بخلق مواطن
و مثلت هذه اإلجراءات ،إىل جانب الخسائر املسجلة عىل مستوى الشغل و الحد من الفقر تبعا الرتفاع معدالت البطالة وزيادة نسبة
اإليرادات بسبب االنكامش االقتصادي ،السبب يف جزء كبري من السكان املعرضني للوقوع يف براثن الفقر .و عىل وجه التحديد ،تشري
االرتفاع املسجل يف عجز املالية العمومية الذي بلغ ٪5.01من التقديرات إىل أن معدل الفقر سريتفع من ٪41من السكان يف فرتة
الناتج املحيل االجاميل (ارتفاع من حوايل ٪3من الناتج املحيل ما قبل الجائحة إىل ٪12سنة ،0202و ستكون األرس األكرث فقرا،
االجاميل يف امليزانية األصلية لسنة .)0202و كام هو متوقع ،فقد والتي ترتكز يف مناطق الوسط الغريب و الجنوب الرشقي لتونس،
أدت الزيادة يف االحتياجات التمويلية إىل تفاقم درجة التعرض األكرث ترض ًرا من الجائحة .أما بالنسبة لألفراد األكرث هشاشة ،فمن
ملخاطر الديون .حيث من املتوقع أن يرتفع الدين العام من ٪27 املرجح أن يكونوا من النساء الاليت يعشن يف أرس كبرية و ال يتمتعن
من الناتج املحيل اإلجاميل يف 9102إىل حوايل ٪98من الناتج املحيل بالرعاية الصحية و يعملن دون عقود .كام ساهم انخفاض حجم
اإلجاميل يف سنة .0202 الصادرات بنسبة ٪51إىل حدود سبتمرب ( 0202عىل أساس سنوي)
يف هذا االنكامش حيث أدى ضعف الطلب عىل املستوى العاملي إىل
تراجع الصادرات الصناعية والسياحية .و عىل الرغم من ذلك ،من
اآلفاق املستقبلية و املخاطر املتوقع أن يتقلص عجز الحساب الجاري إىل ٪7من الناتج املحيل
اإلجاميل يف سنة ،0202مقابل ٪8.8من الناتج املحيل اإلجاميل يف
من الواضح أن تأثري الوضع الوبايئ عىل االقتصاد كان شديدً ا و أن
سنة ،9102حيث سجلت التحويالت املالية انتعاشا بينام انخفضت
تكاليف إجراءات التخفيف من هذه اآلثار قد زادت يف تفاقم وضعية
الواردات بشكل أرسع من الصادرات.
املالية العمومية الضعيفة أصال .كام تتسم اآلفاق املستقبلية بوجود
مجموعة من التحديات و بعدم اليقني .و يف ظل التوقعات بحدوث و تبعا النخفاض عجز الحساب الجاري ،فقد أظهر الوضع املايل
انكامش بنسبة 2.9يف املائة يف عام ،0202فإنه من املتوقع أن يرتفع الخارجي بعض املرونة يف مواجهة الصدمة االقتصادية .حيث أنه
نسق النمو مؤق ًتا ليصل إىل 8.5يف املائة مع بداية انحسار آثار الوباء، ببلوغه 8.7مليار دوالر أمرييك حتى نهاية أكتوبر ،فقد ارتفع
قبل العودة إىل مسار منو أكرث انخفاضا عند حوايل ٪2مام يعكس نقاط احتياطي تونس من العملة الصعبة إىل ما يعادل 741يوم توريد
xviiمؤخ ًرا ملناقشة أحدث األدلة عىل أداء الرشكات وتقديم األولويات الضعف الهيكلية املوجودة من قبل .كام تعترب مخاطر حدوث انحسار
متنام وأكرث إنتاجية .فخالل أغلب فرتات العقد
من أجل قطاع خاص ٍ لهذه التوقعات كبرية بالنظر إىل حجم املوجة الثانية للوباء املتواصلة
املايض ،ساهم كل من توقف النمو و ضعف ديناميكية القطاع حاليا وتأثريها عىل الرشكاء التجاريني الرئيسيني لتونس .و متاشيا مع
الخاص يف تواصل ارتفاع مستويات البطالة .وبالتوازي مع ذلك ،فقد ذلك ،من املتوقع أن يرتاجع عجز الحساب الجاري إىل 2.6بحلول
أدى اعتبار الدولة كمشغل ،يف ظل غياب فرص االستثامر للحساب عام 2202مع بدء تعايف الصناعات التصديرية ولكن بنسق بطيء و
الخاص ،إىل تضخم كتلة أجور القطاع العام وتضاؤل الحيز املايل متقلب .و تشري التوقعات املالية إىل ضيق إطار امليزانية و محدودية
لالستثامر يف االقتصاد .و ساهمت جائحة كوفيد 91-يف تفاقم هذه هامش التحفيز حيث سيمتد تأثري الوباء إىل حدود سنة .1202و تشري
الصعوبات الهيكلية القامئة .و يف هذا السياق ،تعد مسألة إعادة التوقعات إىل تراجع عجز الحساب الجاري إىل 5.4باملائة من الناتج
ديناميكية الرشكات و تفعيل إمكانياتها من حيث خلق فرص العمل املحيل اإلجاميل بحلول عام 2202إال أن املخاطر الناجمة عن تواصل
أكرث إلحا ًحا من ذي قبل إذا أرادت تونس أن تطلق مسار التعايف من ارتفاع حجم كتلة األجور ،و ميزانية الدعم ،و أجور التقاعد ،و ضعف
أزمة كوفيد.91- أداء املؤسسات من شأنها تقويض جهود التعايف إذا مل تتم معالجة
هذه املخاطر بشكل استباقي.
و قد خلص التحليل إىل أن الرشكات التونسية قد فقدت الكثري من
نجاحاتها .حيث أنه بالنظر إىل فرتة السبع سنوات بني 3102و و يف هذا السياق الصعب ،يعد إعداد خطة متامسكة إلعادة تنشيط
،9102تُظهر البيانات عددًا من املجاالت التي أظهرت فيها البيئة االقتصاد واستعادة مصداقية إطار االقتصاد الكيل خطوة تالية
االقتصادية تحسنا و أن أداء تونس كان أفضل من نظراءها عىل حاسمة بالنسبة لتونس من أجل النجاح يف تجاوز هذه األزمة.
املستوى اإلقليمي .لكن بشكل عام ،تشري األدلة إىل ضعف نسيج و تتمثل أوىل األولويات يف إنقاذ األرواح من خالل السيطرة عىل
القطاع الخاص .حيث تراجع حجم استثامر الرشكات ،و أصبحت الوباء واالستعداد لتوفري لقاحات كوفيد 91-لجميع السكان .و كانت
أقل ابتكا ًرا :فقد انخفضت حصة الرشكات املستثمرة يف األصول السلطات قد تعاملت مع املوجة األوىل من الوباء بشكل جيد ،حيث
الثابتة من ٪44يف عام 3102إىل ٪03يف عام ،9102مع مالحظة أن تجنبت تفيش املرض عىل نطاق واسع من خالل اتخاذ قرار الحجر
االنخفاض قد شمل جميع القطاعات .كام انخفضت حصة الرشكات الصحي الصارم بشكل مبكر .إال أن املوجة الثانية من العدوى تعترب
التونسية التي تقدم منت ًجا أو خدمة جديدة إىل النصف حيث أكرث حدة من املوجة األوىل ،ويتم حاليا تطبيق مجموعة من تدابري
تراجعت النسبة من ٪82يف 3102إىل ٪41يف .9102كام أصبحت االحتواء الجديدة ،إال أنها أقل رصامة .كام يتم حاليا العمل عىل
الرشكات أقل توجهاً نحو التصدير من ذي قبل .حيث انخفضت توفري اللقاحات حيث تشارك تونس يف مبادرة البنك الدويل لتمويل
حصة الرشكات املصدرة من ٪83يف عام 3102إىل ٪ 23يف عام رشاء وتوزيع لقاحات الكوفيد 91-إىل جانب التحاليل و األدوية.
.9102وقد تزامن ذلك مع تدهور املؤرشات املتعلقة بالتجارة :فقد
ارتفع عدد األيام الالزمة لتخليص الصادرات من الجامرك بأكرث من ثانياً ،سوف تساهم استعادة مصداقية إطار االقتصاد الكيل يف وضع
الضعف فمر من 3أيام يف 3102إىل 7أيام يف .9102أما بالنسبة األسس النتعاش مستويات النمو بشكل أكرث استدامة .و يتطلب ذلك
إىل الواردات فإن الوضع يعترب أسوأ ،حيث قفز عدد األيام الالزمة عىل وجه الخصوص ،الرتكيز عىل متويل االنتعاش بشكل أكرث استدامة
لتخليص الواردات من الجامرك من 7أيام يف 3102إىل 61يو ًما يف للميض قد ًما نحو إدارة مستويات الدين .وهذا يعني إعادة هيكلة
.9102أخريًا ،أصبحت الرشكات أقل إنتاجية :فقد كان معدل منو املالية العمومية من خالل تخفيض حجم كتلة األجور ،وتحويل
اإلنتاجية السنوي الحقيقي سلبيا يف عام 3102حيث بلغ 5.4-يف املساعدات االجتامعية املقدمة يف شكل إعانات إىل تحويالت مبارشة
املائة و تدهور إىل ٪1.5-بحلول عام .9102وعىل الرغم من أن تستهدف مستحقيها ومعالجة املخاطر املالية املتأتية من الرشكات
بعض القطاعات تساهم يف توفري مواطن شغل إضافية ،فإن هذه العمومية و ذلك من أجل توفري املوارد من أجل االستثامر العمومي
األخرية ال يتم توفريها يف املناطق التي تعاين من أعىل مستويات والتعايف االقتصادي.
البطالة. أخ ًريا ،و يف ظل محدودية الحيز املايل و هشاشة الوضع املايل
ويتم اختتام التقرير مبناقشة بعض اإلجراءات الهيكلية األكرث إلحا ًحا الخارجي ،يجب أن تشكل اإلصالحات الهيكلية لتعزيز أداء القطاع
والالزمة للمساعدة يف إعادة القطاع الخاص إىل املسار الصحيح. الخاص العمود الفقري لجهود اإلنعاش .كام أن نسق االنتعاش
وتشمل هذه اإلجراءات دعم قدرة الرشكات الجديدة عىل دخول سيتوقف يف ظل غياب برنامج طموح الستئناف النمو عىل مستوى
السوق وتقديم منتجات أو خدمات جديدة ،ومعالجة املعوقات الرشكات .و هذا هو املوضوع الذي سيتم تناوله يف الجزء املخصص
الهيكلية التي تساهم يف تعقيد وصول الرشكات إىل التمويل ،و من التقرير.
معالجة التدهور الكبري يف أداء املصالح الديوانية و تطوير رؤية
واضحة لسياسات االبتكار من أجل تغذية القطاعات التي بدأت تربز استعادة نسق النمو من خالل إعادة بناء إمكانيات
فيها سامت االبتكار و امليزة النسبية. الرشكات التونسية.
يعتمد الجزء املخصص من هذه النسخة لتقرير املرصد التونيس
لالقتصاد عىل الدراسة االستطالعية للرشكات يف تونس التي نُرشت
xviii TUNISIA ECONOMIC MONITOR – REBUILDING THE POTENTIAL OF TUNISIAN FIRMS1
RECENT ECONOMIC
DEVELOPMENTS
Growth and Employment FIGURE 1 • Growth is Expected to Contract by
9.2 Percent in 2020
Tunisia is experiencing a sharper growth 100 5
80
Growth (%) by Sector (YoY)
deceleration than its peers, having met 60 0
GDP Growth (%) YoY
the COVID-19 crisis on weak footing 40 –5
20
0 –10
The pandemic is having a heavier impact on –20
–40 –15
growth than previously anticipated, further –60 –20
compounding a decade of low growth and –80
–100 –25
increasing poverty. The year 2020 started on a 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
weak footing prior to the pandemic, with a 2.2 percent Agriculture Manufacturing industries
contraction in the first quarter and several preceding Non-manufacturing industries Tradable services
Non-tradable services
years of sluggish growth.2 The pandemic deepened
this economic stagnation. A strict lockdown between Source: National Institute of Statistics.
March and June suppressed the pandemic but
simultaneously stifled domestic supply and demand, 2
GDP growth averaged 1.5 percent annually in 2011–2019
contributing to a 9.6 percent contraction in GDP in compared to 4.5 percent in 2006–2010.
the first nine months of the year. The ongoing second 3
At the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, Tunisia enforced
wave of the pandemic weighs further on economic a relatively strict lockdown from March 22nd to May 4th,
activity.3 Growth is expected to contract by 9.2 followed by a gradual re-opening. A second wave has
percent overall in 2020, down from an expansion of 1 now far exceeded the first with an average daily infection
rate in the range of 1,000–1,500 in October (compared
percent in 2019 (Figure 1).4
toBOX 1: HOW IS COVID-19 AFFECTING THE POOR?
Recent analysis carried out by the World Bank (Kokas et al; 2020) addresses this question by estimating the pandemic’s impact on
Tunisia’s poor households. It shows that the pandemic is likely to reverse recent gains in poverty reduction. The analysis explored four broad
channels through which the pandemic could affect households: labor income, non-labor income, direct effects on consumption, and the
disruption of services. The findings suggest that, under the baseline scenario of a 9.2 percent contraction in GDP growth in 2020, poverty
is estimated to increase from 14 percent of the population pre-Covid to 21 percent in 2020.a Additionally, inequality (measured using the
Gini coefficient) is estimated to increase from 37 to 39.5.
Households with per capita consumption in the poorest 20 percent of the population, which are concentrated in Tunisia’s Center West and
South East regions, would be hardest hit. As for the most vulnerable individuals, they are likely to be women, living in large households,
without access to health care and employed without contracts. Just over half (53 percent) of individuals who projected to have fallen into
poverty as a result of the pandemic are likely to be employed without a contract.
The analysis also simulated the impact of the authorities’ compensatory measures and found that they would mitigate the impact on
poverty. Specifically, the increase in poverty would slow to 6.9 percent with the mitigation measures as opposed to 7.4 percent without,
underlining the importance of developing well-targeted social protection programs that can quickly be used to reach the poor at times of
crisis.
Source: Kokas, Deeksha; Lopez-Acevedo, Gladys; El Lahga, Abdel Rahman & Mendiratta, Vibhuti. “Impacts of COVID-19 on household welfare in Tunisia”. 2020
(forthcoming).
a
These estimates are based on the national poverty line using the 2015 household survey, which is updated to arrive at the pre-pandemic poverty rate.
of GDP in 2019 coming from the market services.5 first half of the year. Since the end of May 2020,
The pandemic’s dual impact on the supply and social protests disrupted production in energy and
demand for services (both domestic and external) mining sites such as the phosphate mines in Gafsa,
have contributed to a 12 percent decline in services the oil wells in Tataouine, and the Nawara gas field.8
by the third quarter of the year. Tourism is one of Phosphate production has been significantly affected
Tunisia’s main service industries. Key activities for this by these repeated crises. This year, phosphate
sector—transport and hotels and restaurants6—were exports, produced in remote parts of the country,
particularly affected with 30 and 43 percent declines were down by 21 percent by October compared to
respectively over this period. the same period last year. These remote areas have
Manufacturing, a mainstay of the Tunisian some of the highest unemployment rates in Tunisia
economy, has also been deeply impacted as and worsening social conditions in the wake of the
European demand stalled.7 Manufactured output pandemic could further aggravate social tensions. A
contracted by 10 percent in the first nine months change in political power added further uncertainty
of 2020 compared to 2019. The decline was driven as an unexpected change in government took
mainly by textiles and the mechanical and electrical place between July and September, bringing a new
sector, which contracted by 19 percent and 17 government led by Prime Minister Hichem Mechichi
percent respectively. These key industries employ to power.
around a fifth of the working population and had been
growing in recent years. They are also highly sensitive 5
All services (market and non-market) accounted for 61
to global economic shocks. In contrast, agriculture percent of GDP in 2019.
contributed positively to growth, providing a small 6
Transport and hotels and restaurants account for 27
boost to food processing industries, due to favorable percent of market services and 11 percent of GDP.
7
Europe is the destination for more than 75 percent of
harvest conditions.
Tunisia’s exports.
Non COVID-19 related factors also affected 8
The phosphate sector has been subject to repeated sit-
growth this year, such as worker disruption in ins in past years and production in the mining area has
the mining sector and political uncertainty in the been slowed down for a decade.
2 TUNISIA ECONOMIC MONITOR – REBUILDING THE POTENTIAL OF TUNISIAN FIRMSFIGURE 2 • Economies that are More Dependent FIGURE 3 • …Contributing to Tunisia’s
on Tourism have Tended to Performance, which is Considerably
Experience a Sharper Downturn… Below Peers and Trading Partners
10 10
Annual GDP Growth (%)
5
0 5
GDP Growth %, YoY 2020
0 20 40 60 80 100
–5
Percent
–10 0
–15
Tunisia –5
–20
–25
–30 –10
Tourism % of Total Exports 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Developing Countries Europe & Central Asia
Source: World Bank World Development Indicators.
Middle East & North Africa Tunisia
Source: National Institute of Statistics, World Bank staff estimates.
Unemployment increased equally for
women and men, but informal sector
workers are likely to be most affected services and construction sectors, making the
crisis particularly taxing for this group. Dwindling
After having spiked to 18 percent in the second opportunities for this vulnerable group may have
quarter of 2020, the rate of unemployment aggravated the flow of illegal migration to Europe. As
declined to 16 percent in the third quarter. Although of end-September, it is estimated that close to 10,000
it remains above the pre-COVID unemployment rate of Tunisians attempted illegal Mediterranean crossing
15 percent, the recovery in the unemployment rate in in 2020, making them the largest nationality group
the third quarter of 2020 suggests that a large share crossing the Mediterranean.10
of job losses in the early stage of the pandemic and
the lockdown were on a temporary basis. This seems The External Sector
to be corroborated by data from the national statistics
institute’s second COVID-19 socio-economic impact Tunisia’s external position improved
phone survey9, which reports that only 5 percent of slightly in 2020, but in a context of
respondents permanently lost their jobs. Women’s weakened export performance and even
unemployment rates, including for graduates, have weaker demand for imports
historically been higher than men’s, but fluctuations
in the unemployment rate were of a similar magnitude Weak global demand led to a severe reduction in
for both men and women. industrial exports and tourism.11 Exports contracted
The impact on informal workers, who
account for 46 percent of the workforce, is
likely to be significant. Informal workers, such 9
http://www.ins.tn/sites/default/files/publication/pdf/
as day workers and self-employed informal micro- Enq%20covid%20menages%20-%20octobre%202020.pdf.
10
https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/mediterranean;
businesses, are generally from lower-income
https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/mediterranean/
households and, by definition, do not have access location/5205.
to formal employment benefits and protections. 11
Mechanical and electric products, and textiles together
They are also concentrated in the heavily impacted account of 68 percent of product exports.
Recent Economic Developments 3FIGURE 4 • The Current Account Deficit and FIGURE 5 • … as Imports Decline Faster than
Reserves Improve in 2020… Export
12 12 % change 2019–2020 (Jan to Sep)
10 0
10
8 8
US$ billions
–10
% of GDP
6 6
–20
% of GDP
4 4
2 2 –30 Exports
0 0
–40
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Imports
(est.) (proj.) –50
Current account deficit (in % of GDP) (left axis) General regime Off-shore regime
Gross official reserves (US$ billion) (right axis)
Source: Central Bank of Tunisia.
Source: Central Bank of Tunisia; World Bank staff estimates.
by 15 percent in the first nine months of 2020 compared Bolstered by a lower current account
to the same period in 2019. Leading the fall in exports deficit, the external position remains
were the mechanic and electric industries, key sector adequate, yet fragile, despite the
in the economy, which fell by 20 percent, reflecting economic shock
a reduction in demand from Europe, including in
auto industries. Textiles similarly experienced an 18 Foreign direct investment continued to decline
percent decline in exports so far this year. Tourism, in 2020. Net foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows
which was struggling to recover from the terrorist had been weak prior to the pandemic as the economy
attacks of 2015, was also severely affected, declining struggled to perform and attract investors, leaving
by 60 percent in the first nine months of 2020. This debt and short-term inflows to dominate the financial
comes at a time when the government is struggling to account. FDI took a further hit, declining by 25 percent
revitalize the tourism economy, in the face of domestic in the first 9 months of the year. Debt and short-term
security concerns and regional instability.12 inflows also declined, contracting by 39 over this
Despite this, the current account deficit is period but remained the largest financial inflow.
expected to shrink to 7 percent of GDP in 2020, External reserves remained resilient
against 8.8 percent in 2019, following a large despite the economic shock, placing Tunisia’s
drop in imports and higher remittances. Although reserves at an adequate level. At approximately
exports declined, the reduction in imports was larger. USD 7.8 billion, gross foreign exchange reserves
Overall, imports fell by 18 percent during the first nine increased by 18 percent as of end-October compared
months of 2020 as weak consumer demand, lower oil to a year earlier, equivalent to 147 days of import
prices and a drop in capital goods imports lowered against 103 days a year earlier, owing to a lower CAD
the import bill. Industry is also importing less. For and the Central Bank’s limiting of foreign exchange
example, a large share of imports in the textile and interventions to maintain exchange rate flexibility. The
manufacturing industries are intermediate goods and decline in imports has also contributed to the higher
are ultimately destined for exports, further reducing import cover ratio, which could drop as pent-up
Tunisia’s imports as demand for exports plummets. demand for import recovers.
Moreover, remittances, which stood at 5.3 percent of
GDP in 2019 increased by 12 percent in the 12 months 12
Demand for tourism in Tunisia is led by Europeans and
to September despite a worse economic situation in neighboring countries Algeria and Libya, which have all
France and Italy, the source of 76 percent of Tunisian gradually increased in recent years, despite the terrorist
remittances. attacks in 2016, signaling a growing regional tourism trend.
4 TUNISIA ECONOMIC MONITOR – REBUILDING THE POTENTIAL OF TUNISIAN FIRMSFIGURE 6 • The Fiscal Deficit and Debt Levels FIGURE 7 • Tunisia is Experiencing a Larger
Increased in 2020 Increase in the Fiscal Deficit than
Some of its Regional Peers
12 100
90 Increase in overall fiscal deficit between 2019 and 2020
10 80 8
8 70 7
60 6
% GDP
% GDP
6 50 5
% of GDP
40 4
4 30 3
2 20 2
10 1
0 0 0
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Tunisia MENA Lebanon Morocco Jordan Egypt
(revised
budget) Source: Ministry of Economy, Finance & Investment; World Bank MFMOD database.
Public debt (RHS) Fiscal deficit (LHS)
Source: Ministry of Economy, Finance & Investment; World Bank staff estimates. deficit from 6.1 percent of GDP in 2017 to 3.5 percent
of GDP by 2019, Tunisia made progress in remedying
its fiscal imbalances prior to the pandemic. The large
Fiscal Policy13 impact of the pandemic, particularly on state revenues,
the costs of the response and continued growth in the
The costs of the pandemic response and wage bill are now pushing the primary14 and overall
structural budget weaknesses reversed deficits to 6.7 and 10.5 percent of GDP, respectively,
recent, albeit uneven, progress in in the revised 2020 budget (Figure 6). This is a larger
consolidating public finances increase compared to most regional peers (Figure 7).
Although structural weaknesses continue
The fiscal deficit is expected to balloon to about to weigh on the budget, most of the increase
10.5 percent of GDP this year, reversing recent in financing needs is due to the costs of the
gains made in rebalancing the budget. With a pandemic. Revenues15 are estimated to decline to
reduction in the overall central government fiscal 28 percent of GDP in 2020, down from 33 percent in
the pre-pandemic budget for the year as the downturn
depresses economic activity and as tax deferral
FIGURE 8 • Most of the Increase in 2020 Budget measures adopted as part of the pandemic response
Financing Needs is Due to the Costs take effect. In parallel, the supplementary 2020
of the Pandemic… budget aims to increase spending to 38 percent of
Sources of the increase in the fiscal deficit between the
GDP, up from 36 percent of GDP initially. Together, the
original and revised 2020 budgets costs of the COVID-19 response at TND 1100 million
(1 percent of GDP), and revenue losses account for
Revenue loss 69
82 percent of the increase in the deficit between the
Covid-19 response 13 original and the revised 2020 budget. Higher debt
service costs also added to the spending envelope
Wage bill 6
(Figure 8). An untimely increase in the wage bill this
Debt service 5
Other
13
This section draws on the approved supplementary
7
budget law for 2020. The ratios are calculated based on
0 20 40 60 80 World Bank GDP estimates for 2020.
Percent 14
The primary balance is equivalent to the overall fiscal
Source: World Bank staff calculations based on the 2020 proposed supplementary balance, less interest payments.
budget. 15
Revenues and grants.
Recent Economic Developments 5FIGURE 9 • …but Structural Weaknesses, such into fiscal space, having increased from 3 to 4 percent
as a Large and Growing Wage Bill, of GDP over the past year.
Continue to be a Challenge
Tunisia’s wage bill compared with
20
neighboring countries (2020) Monetary Policy and Inflation
15
% of GDP
10
Monetary policy balanced economic
stimulus with its core objective of
5
maintaining price stability, supporting
0
Tunisia Morocco Algeria* Lebanon* Egypt Jordan moderate growth in credit to the economy
Source: World Bank staff estimates; IMF staff estimates.
* Data for Algeria and Lebanon is for 2019. Declining inflation set the stage for policy rate
cuts in 2020 to support the economy during
the pandemic. The central bank had maintained a
year, forecast to grow by 17 percent compared to
monetary policy tightening cycle between 2017 and
2019, is adding to the expansion. Taken together,
2019 in response to a depreciating currency and
these factors outweighed savings from lower energy
inflationary pressures over this period, which helped
subsidies stemming primarily from lower international
lower inflation from a peak of 7.7 percent in mid-2018
oil prices.
to 5.8 percent by early 2020. While inflation reached
6.3 percent in the early stage of the pandemic (April–
Higher financing needs in 2020 keep debt
May) due to the initial shock, normalization of supply
levels on an upward trajectory, increasing
chains, lower oil prices and subdued domestic
debt service costs
demand helped decelerate inflation to 5.4 percent by
October. In this context, the Central Bank reduced the
Financing has shifted to domestic debt to meet
policy rate twice, by 100 basis point in March 2020 and
the budget’s swelling needs. As a result of the
by 50 basis point to 6.25 percent at end-September.
projected deficit, gross financing needs16 jumped
Lower interest rates and COVID-19 re-
from 10 percent of GDP in the original 2020 budget
sponse measures helped prop-up demand for
to 18 percent of GDP in the revised budget. The
credit. The central bank also implemented a num-
authorities have increased recourse to domestic
ber of other measures to mitigate the effects of the
debt to help plug this gap, with a large increase in
pandemic, including relaxation of loan-to-deposit ra-
borrowing needs presented in the last quarter of the
tio requirements, extending list of assets eligible as
year.17 Domestic debt stands now at 35 percent of
collateral for refinancing operations and a second-
total debt, compared with 25 percent in 2019.
ary market government bond purchase program to
With this, public debt is estimated to reach
improve liquidity and yield conditions for domestic
89.4 percent of GDP by end 2020, compared to
72.5 percent in 2019.18 The public debt burden had 16
Consisting of the amounts needed to finance the overall
declined in 2019 as the authorities made progress in
fiscal deficit as well as debt coming due (amortization)
consolidating public finances. The fiscal impact of the during the year.
pandemic reverses the decline in debt registered in 17
Domestic borrowing is expected to finance 62 percent of
2019 and raises the debt stock to concerning levels. gross financing needs and external debt the remaining
Currency appreciation in 2020 helped mitigate some in 2020, against 30 percent in 2019.
of the increase.19 The structure of Tunisia’s debt,
18
The Tunisian dinar appreciated against the dollar by
around 6 percent so far in 2020, mitigating some of the
which has a significant share of debt from donors (47
increase in indebtedness. The large increase is domestic
percent of central government debt in 2019), eases borrowing counteracts this effect.
the debt service burden. Nevertheless, debt service 19
The Tunisian Dinar appreciated by 4 percent in the 12
costs have also been gradually increasing and cutting months to September 2020 (YoY).
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