Are we advancing in the transition of the energy matrix in Latin America? Analysis and considerations - Policy brief on trade and environment

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Are we advancing in the transition of the energy matrix in Latin America? Analysis and considerations - Policy brief on trade and environment
Nº 13 / January 2021

Policy brief
on trade and
environment

Are we advancing in the transition of the
energy matrix in Latin America? Analysis
and considerations
David García Howell

                       www.kas.de/energie-klima-lateinamerika/
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Energy Matrix: Implications and advances in Latin America                                                                                Nº 13
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Index

Introduction.......................................................................................................................................... 3

Energy matrix at the global level....................................................................................................... 5

Latin American context....................................................................................................................... 6

Advances in Latin America.................................................................................................................. 8

Challenges and goals........................................................................................................................ 13

     n       De-carbonization of energy matrices in LAC countries: towards an
		           energy transition.................................................................................................................. 13

     n       Distributed generation: new instruments to increase a generation of
             cleaner and more efficient electricity.................................................................................. 13

     n       Energy matrices in the context of COVID-19 (2020)............................................................ 13

     n       Carbon pricing ..................................................................................................................... 14

Bibliography...................................................................................................................................... 15
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  Introduction

  The term “energy matrix” can be defined as the combination of diverse primary
  energy sources used to satisfy the energy needs in a geographic region1. Diversity
  increases a country’s energy security when there is a failure or exhaustion of one
  of the sources (Miciula, 2019). Fossil fuels (oil, natural gas and carbon), numerous
  renewables (hydraulic, wind, solar, geothermal and biomass) and nuclear are the
  primary energy sources that usually form this matrix. They are used to generate
  electricity, fuel transportation, provide air conditioning to residential or commercial
  facilities, among others.

  Development of an energy matrix implies analysis and quantification of supply,
  demand and transformation capacities of each energy source in a country. It also
  includes inventory of available resources, considering their historic evolution and
  future projections of energy needs (Riavitz et al., 2015). The matrices are calculated
  yearly and serve for regional and global comparisons (Cárdenas, 2011).

GRAPHIC 1. Variables that influence the structure of the energy
		matrix

                                                                       Availability of resources
                                                                       nationally or capacity for
                                                                             importation

          Energy                          Variables                     Type of energy needed
          matrix

                                                                     Policy options determined
                                                                     by geopolitical, geographic,
                                                                        economic, social, etc.
                                                                           considerations

  1   Energy sources are primary, when they are extracted or “captured” from nature directly, without having
      been subject to modification. Secondary sources are the result of a transformation process by means of a
      technology, such as in the case of electricity or gasoline (Cárdenas, 2011).
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Energy Matrix: Implications and advances in Latin America                     Nº 13
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An analysis of the energy matrix allows us to understand the dynamics of energy
flows related to main economic and social activities of a country, a key element to
develop public policies that contribute to social and environmental transformation
(Sárate & Ramírez, 2016).
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  Energy matrix at the global level

  The present energy scenario shows an increase in energy consumption promoted
  among others, by socioeconomic growth and an increase of the world population.

  The world energy matrix relies on 81.3% fossil fuels. Other non-renewable energy
  sources (e.g. solar, wind power, maritime, etc.) still represent only 2% of the matrix
  (International Energy Agency, 2020).

GRAPHIC 2. Diagram of the world energy matrix (IEA, 2020)

                                             2018

                                              2.0%

                                  2.5% 9.3%
                                4.9%
                                                      26.9%

                                              2.0%
                              22.8% 9.3%
                                2.5%

                               4.9%
                                                    26.9%
                                                31.6%

                             22.8%

                                                31.6%
          Other Carbón
          Otro    Coal    PetroleumGas Natural
                         Petróleo      natural gas   Nuclear
                                                 Nuclear  HydroHydro   Biofuels and
                                                                 Biocombustibles     waste
                                                                                 y residuos

                                        14 282 Mtoe

  The growth of carbon emissions decelerated in 2019 as renewables and natural
  gas displaced carbons from the energy matrix, added to the slow growth of energy
  demands, resulting in a O.5% growth of carbon emissions, by comparison to an
  alarming 2.1% growth observed in 2019 (BP, 2020).
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 Energy Matrix: Implications and advances in Latin America                                              Nº 13
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 Latin American context

 The supply matrix of primary energy in Latin America is recognized as one of the
 most diverse in the world, including hydropower, biomass, geothermal and other
 renewables (Rivera Albarracín, 2019).

 According to the Latin American Energy Organization as of 2019, the energy matrix
 of Latin America and the Caribbean is distributed as follows:

GRAPHIC 3. Summarized Energy Balance 2018 (OLADE, 2018)

                                    Primary energy matrix ALC 2018

                                       2.5% 9.3%

                                      4.9%
                                                           26.9%

                                   22.8% 20%
                  1%                                               30%
                       1%
                                                     31.6%
                                 8%

                                   6%

                                                     34%

       Petróleo    Gas natural      Carbón mineral    Hidroenergía       Geotermia     Nuclear      Otras*
            Petroleum       Natural gas   Mineral carbon   Hydro     Geothermal      Nuclear     Other

 * Other primaries include: Biogas, solar, wind, plant waste, cane products, wood.

 Nevertheless, this overall and general picture is nuanced. For example, it is important
 to highlight that a good part of the biomass is made up of wood for cooking and
 heating in rural areas and the urban outskirts. It is an inefficient and unsustainable
 consumption that generates a high risk for health, mainly of women and children,
 and also contributes to climate change, aggravating forest deforestation and
 degradation (Rivera Albarracín, 2019).
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Energy Matrix: Implications and advances in Latin America                        Nº 13
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In recent years, energy transition policies promoted by states in the region have
focused on reversing the situation and diversifying energy matrices. In most cases,
the crisis was constructed as an almost exclusive problem of deficit supply that could
be solved with greater investment in the generation sector. During the first decade
of the XXI century, different countries in Latin America promoted renewable energy
development and use schemes. These actions succeeded in placing the region as
one of the most dynamic in the world. However, these policies and schemes face
challenges due to their limited scope in terms of the transformation process.
The dominant transition comes down primarily to achieving diversification of the
electricity generation matrix. But other critical aspects of the system are overlooked,
including issues concerning the oligopoly character of the sector and increased
difficulties to access energy, leading to an increase in energy poverty (Contreras et
al., 2019).

However, according to CEPAL, the present COVID-19 pandemic finds Latin America
and the Caribbean at a moment of economic weakness and macroeconomic
vulnerability. In the decade following the 2008 world financial crisis, regional GDP
growth decreased by 6% to 0,2%. CEPAL also indicates that the COVID-19 pandemic
will be the cause of the greatest economic and social crisis in the region in decades,
with serious negative effects on employment, fight against poverty and reduction
of inequality, impacting economies in the region through external and internal
factors whose joint effect will lead to the worst contraction of economic activity
suffered by the region since registers began
                                        2.0% in 1900. It is estimated that countries in
South America who specialize in exporting primary goods would suffer the greatest
impacts, and therefore, are more vulnerable to a decrease in prices (Guzowski &
                                              26.9%
Florencia, 2020).
                                                  30%

                       8%
                                         31.6%
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Advances in Latin America

In Latin America, countries with greater advances rely on structured public policies
and regulatory frameworks that allow the electricity sector to develop efficiently and
sustainably, particularly in the area of renewable resources. These advances are
measured according to national policies, taxes, incentives, access to the network,
market regulatory instruments and financing.

Countries which have made the most progress include: Brazil, Mexico, Uruguay,
Argentina, Chile, Panama, Peru and Nicaragua. Countries which are making progress
include Honduras, Colombia, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Costa Rica and
Paraguay. Finally, some countries are still far behind and include Venezuela, Guyana,
Belize, Bolivia and Surinam (Moreno Castillo, 2017). Following is an analysis of a
select group of them.

Argentina

The energy matrix of Argentina depends highly on hydrocarbons, particularly natural
gas. By way of context, in 2018, 87.5% of the total internal energy supply came from
fossil fuels (58.4% natural gas, 27.7% oil and 1.4% carbons), determining a low
participation relative to other sources such as hydroelectric and nuclear energy,
which nevertheless have considerable significance when analyzing the generation of
energy (Mastronardi et al., 2019).

Brazil

Brazil has a highly diverse energetic matrix, as it has energy resources based on
hydrocarbons, renewable resources and nuclear energy. Additionally, they have the
largest power plant in Latin America, Itaipú, located between Paraguay and Brazil,
with an installed capacity of 14 GW, considered the second largest in the world
(Mourón & Onuki, 2015). Brazil has a great diversity of renewable resources. Its
large territory strongly impacted by high solar radiation allows Brazil to benefit from
solar energy potential. However, policy barriers and high costs have not allowed the
exploitation of solar energy. In the case of wind energy, in 2018 Brazil had 568 plants
installed, in addition to other 14 GW of installed renewable capacity (Abeeolica,
2018). Thanks to initiatives and support by the State, Brazil occupied the third place
in generation through renewables (Cortés & Arango, 2017). The following graph
shows energy sources in Brazil in 2019. At present, 83% of Brazils electric matrix
comes from renewable sources, according to the Secretary of Energy Planning and
Development of the Ministry of Mines and Energy, Reive Barros. Participation is led
by hydroelectric power (63.8%), followed by wind power (9.3%), biomass and biogas
(8.9%) and centralized solar sources (1.4%) (Governo do Brasil, 2020).
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  Energy Matrix: Implications and advances in Latin America                                          Nº 13
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  Colombia

  According to the Latin America Energy Organization, main energy sources of Colombia are oil,
  followed by natural gas and hydroelectricity (OLADE, 2018).

GRAPHIC 4. Energy sources – Colombia (OLADE, 2018)

                                   Energy matrix Colombia 2018

                                               12%

                                 12%
                                                                      42%

                                 11%

                                                 23%
                                   4.9%
                                                             26.9%
                                        20%
                                                                30%

                    Petróleo     Gas Natural       Carbón mineral     Hidroenergía   Otras*
                     Petroleum       Natural gas      31.6%
                                                       Mineral carbon       Hydro    Other*

                                                      31.6%
  * Other primaries include: Biogas, solar, wind energy, plant waste, cane and firewood.

                                                       34%
  With respect to generation of electricity, Colombia has an installed capacity of approximately
  16 000 MW of which 69.77% is generated from water power plants, 18.30% corresponds to
  thermal power stations and 11.94% from other renewable energy sources such as wind power
  (Cortés & Arango, 2017).
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  Energy Matrix: Implications and advances in Latin America                                               Nº 13
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  Chile

  According to the International Energy Agency (2020), oil, carbons and biofuels continue to
  represent the majority of Chile´s energy matrix and renewable sources such as wind and
  solar make up 3%.

                                                       2.0%
GRAPHIC 5. Source of energy9.3%
                            – Chile (IEA, 2020)
                                         2.5%

                                                               26.9%

                                                             30%
                                         Energy sources Chile 2019

                                                      3%
                                 8%
                                                        31.6%

                                           17%

                                   4%                                   42%

                                       14%

                                                      20%

             Petróleo   Carbón    Gas Natural   Hidroenergía
                                                      2.0% Biocombustibles y residuos Solar, eólica, etc.
            Petroleum      Coal       Natural gas    Hydro Biofuels and waste Solar, wind, etc.
                                         2.5% 9.3%

  On the side of power generation, Chile has had a historic preference for renewables. In the
  1980s, hydroelectric participation in the total generation of energy reached 80%. However, in
  the last five years, average participation in the generation of hydroelectric was 32%, in spite of
  significant existing potential. Retaking this preference is the goal of the Energy Policy. It seeks
  to implement measures to stimulate renewable energies to 60% by 2035, and at least 70%
  from electric generation by 2050 (Ministerio de Energía, 2017).
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  Costa Rica

  Costa Rica is a recognized country in terms of its use of renewable energy sources to satisfy
  the total internal demand for electricity. However, the consumption of oil-based products still
  represents about 60% of all the final energy consumed (Zárate & Ramírez, 2016). Costa Rica
  is one of the few countries that produces a 100% of its electricity from renewable sources
  during most of the year. In fact, 2018 was the fourth consecutive year in which Costa Rica
  generated more than 98% of its electricity based on renewable sources. So far, Costa Rica
  has mainly used hydroelectric energy to generate electricity - in 2017 / 2018 it represented
  72% - and the country is close to reaching its full potential. The biomass and geothermal
  resources are used both in the heating and hydroelectric energy sectors. In order to reduce
  the dependence of hydroelectric energy during stronger droughts, the country has started to
  diversify its electricity sources. In 2018, wind energy represented 15% of the combination of
  electricity, by contrast to 4% in 2011 (Van Riet et al., 2020).

  Peru

  According to the Latin America Energy Organization, the energy matrix of Peru is mainly made
  up of natural gas and oil, followed by hydro-energy (OLADE, 2018).

GRAPHIC 6. Energy sources – Peru (OLADE, 2018)

                                      Energy matrix Peru 2018

                                              10%

                                     11%
                                                              37%
                                2%

                                            40%

                    Petroleum        Natural gas    Mineral carbon   Hydro   Other*

  * Others primaries include: Biogas, solar, wind, plant waste, cane products and firewood.
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In 2018, the energy matrix of Peru was composed of 48% electricity generation based on
natural gas, 43% hydraulic generation, 3% diesel and residual. 3% wind and solar, 2% carbon,
and 1% biomass and biogas. You will notice quite a clean matrix as more than half generated
comes from renewable resources.

An element to highlight in the Peruvian market is the actual oversupply of electricity generation,
estimated to end by year 2020. Thus, the market shall require thousands of megawatts of new
generation for future years. The cancelation or postponement without a clear date of the
South Peruvian gas pipeline has totally changed the perspectives of future prices in a context
where the country requires private investment and guaranteeing stable and low tariffs for
ordinary people and small industries (Revista Energía, 2019). In that context, it is expected that
future auctions of renewable resources result in reduced premiums, including a premium or
subsidy for wind and solar may be zero or near zero, favoring final clients (Coronado, 2020).

On the other hand, a pending challenge of the sector is to provide energy to rural zones
through the extension of networks and unconventional solutions. The current levels of 92%
electrification may reach coverage values close to 100%, through more conventional networks
installed in easy access areas, but above all, through systems with renewable technologies
such as off-grid photovoltaic solar panels for remote populations (Gamio, 2016).

Other changes or normative reforms are under discussion: declaration of variable costs of
thermal power stations and regulation of the distributed generation law, still pending when
elaborating this report.
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Challenges and goals

  n       De-carbonization of energy matrices in LAC countries: towards an
			       energy transition

    The problem of climate change requires reaching net carbon emissions equal to zero for
    2050 and a drastic reduction of emissions by year 2030. To that effect, LAC countries have
    presented their commitments in the context of the Paris Agreement (commitments called
    Nationally Determined Contributions or NDCs) and must implement actions to manage the
    mitigation of such emissions. Evidence reveals that this transition is possible through the
    production of electricity without carbon emissions; electrification of industries, transport,
    heating and cooking; improving efficiency in the use of resources concerning the energetic
    sector (BID and DDPLAC, 2019).

    Likewise, this context of climate urgency is triggering the interest of final users, at
    the corporative level, over GEI emissions of their energy consumption. Assigning an
    environmental benefit (less emissions) for clean energy is a pending issue, having been
    addressed on a pilot basis through mechanisms such as clean energy or green certificates,
    offered by generation companies as in the case of Chile.

    n     Distributed generation: new instruments to increase a generation of
          cleaner and more efficient electricity

    Energy transition towards a zero emissions matrix cannot only be achieved with the
    implementation of large projects such as solar and wind parks, or geothermal or biomass
    developments. New schemes such as distributed generation2 that allows generation at
    the consumption point, in smaller capacities, democratizes the energy system increasing
    possibilities to generate renewable energy taking advantage of the fact that the resource
    is not concentrated (Norma Martínez & Margarita Porcelli, 2018).

    Several countries such as Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Dominican Republic and Costa Rica
    among others have made progress with regards to distributed generation. However, there
    is the need to develop further the regulatory framework to promote this opportunity lifting
    normative barriers and bureaucratic connection procedures.

    n     Energy matrices in the context of COVID-19 (2020)

    Although the COVID-19 pandemic is a large-scale global tragedy, we must not stop

2   This is usually the case when a user-generator exceeds the demand and can re-inject the surplus on the network or
    to the company of distribution and receive economic compensation, improving the financial economic performance
    of projects or installations with renewable energy such as solar.
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   capitalizing valuable lessons and good practices. From an environmental perspective, the
   brutal reduction of GEI emissions and concentration of contaminants has been experienced,
   the latter producing an improvement of air quality, clearly evident in cities such as Buenos
   Aires, Lima and Santiago de Chile. The pandemic has allowed the development of an
   “experiment in real time without precedents around the world” regarding emissions and
   air quality (BID, 2020).

   Our societies highly depend on energy and this has been evident during the year 2020. At
   the same time, this special situation has shown us the viability of alternatives such as remote
   work or working from home and has also presented challenges for the decarbonization
   of energy matrices due to the drastic reduction of oil prices (Ayala-Chauvin & Riba, 2020).
   Even though the energy sector transferred consumptions to the residential sector, the first
   months of the pandemic evidenced a 30% reduction for the demand for electricity in LAC
   countries, according to OLADE reports. (OLADE, 2020).

   Agencies such as IRENA have noted that stimulus and recovery measures may be an
   opportunity to construct more sustainable, equitable and resilient economies, and at the
   same time be in line with the Paris Agreement objectives and Sustainable Development
   Goals (SDGs). This may help in the achievement of multiple economic and social objectives
   in the search of a better future (IRENA,2020). It is responsibility of governments and
   decision-makers not to lose this only opportunity for a clean and sustainable energy
   future.

   n    Carbon pricing

   Introduction of financial mechanisms and for management to price carbon could respond
   to many of the challenges concerning equity and development and Latin America and
   contribute to national efforts (i.e. strategies, programs, plans) to reduce carbon emissions.
   Countries such as Chile, Colombia and Mexico have already introduced a series of these
   mechanisms to create incentives and facilitate transitions towards renewable energies
   in a more competitive market as companies and industries internalize carbon related
   externalities (Trinidad, 2019).
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and the Caribbean                                                                   January 2021

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Energy Matrix: Implications and advances in Latin America                                Nº 13
and the Caribbean                                                                 January 2021

Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e.V.
Programa Regional Seguridad Energética y Cambio
Climático en América Latina (EKLA)
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