Are we advancing in the transition of the energy matrix in Latin America? Analysis and considerations - Policy brief on trade and environment
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Nº 13 / January 2021
Policy brief
on trade and
environment
Are we advancing in the transition of the
energy matrix in Latin America? Analysis
and considerations
David García Howell
www.kas.de/energie-klima-lateinamerika/2
Energy Matrix: Implications and advances in Latin America Nº 13
and the Caribbean January 2021
Index
Introduction.......................................................................................................................................... 3
Energy matrix at the global level....................................................................................................... 5
Latin American context....................................................................................................................... 6
Advances in Latin America.................................................................................................................. 8
Challenges and goals........................................................................................................................ 13
n De-carbonization of energy matrices in LAC countries: towards an
energy transition.................................................................................................................. 13
n Distributed generation: new instruments to increase a generation of
cleaner and more efficient electricity.................................................................................. 13
n Energy matrices in the context of COVID-19 (2020)............................................................ 13
n Carbon pricing ..................................................................................................................... 14
Bibliography...................................................................................................................................... 153
Energy Matrix: Implications and advances in Latin America Nº 13
and the Caribbean January 2021
Introduction
The term “energy matrix” can be defined as the combination of diverse primary
energy sources used to satisfy the energy needs in a geographic region1. Diversity
increases a country’s energy security when there is a failure or exhaustion of one
of the sources (Miciula, 2019). Fossil fuels (oil, natural gas and carbon), numerous
renewables (hydraulic, wind, solar, geothermal and biomass) and nuclear are the
primary energy sources that usually form this matrix. They are used to generate
electricity, fuel transportation, provide air conditioning to residential or commercial
facilities, among others.
Development of an energy matrix implies analysis and quantification of supply,
demand and transformation capacities of each energy source in a country. It also
includes inventory of available resources, considering their historic evolution and
future projections of energy needs (Riavitz et al., 2015). The matrices are calculated
yearly and serve for regional and global comparisons (Cárdenas, 2011).
GRAPHIC 1. Variables that influence the structure of the energy
matrix
Availability of resources
nationally or capacity for
importation
Energy Variables Type of energy needed
matrix
Policy options determined
by geopolitical, geographic,
economic, social, etc.
considerations
1 Energy sources are primary, when they are extracted or “captured” from nature directly, without having
been subject to modification. Secondary sources are the result of a transformation process by means of a
technology, such as in the case of electricity or gasoline (Cárdenas, 2011).4 Energy Matrix: Implications and advances in Latin America Nº 13 and the Caribbean January 2021 An analysis of the energy matrix allows us to understand the dynamics of energy flows related to main economic and social activities of a country, a key element to develop public policies that contribute to social and environmental transformation (Sárate & Ramírez, 2016).
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Energy Matrix: Implications and advances in Latin America Nº 13
and the Caribbean January 2021
Energy matrix at the global level
The present energy scenario shows an increase in energy consumption promoted
among others, by socioeconomic growth and an increase of the world population.
The world energy matrix relies on 81.3% fossil fuels. Other non-renewable energy
sources (e.g. solar, wind power, maritime, etc.) still represent only 2% of the matrix
(International Energy Agency, 2020).
GRAPHIC 2. Diagram of the world energy matrix (IEA, 2020)
2018
2.0%
2.5% 9.3%
4.9%
26.9%
2.0%
22.8% 9.3%
2.5%
4.9%
26.9%
31.6%
22.8%
31.6%
Other Carbón
Otro Coal PetroleumGas Natural
Petróleo natural gas Nuclear
Nuclear HydroHydro Biofuels and
Biocombustibles waste
y residuos
14 282 Mtoe
The growth of carbon emissions decelerated in 2019 as renewables and natural
gas displaced carbons from the energy matrix, added to the slow growth of energy
demands, resulting in a O.5% growth of carbon emissions, by comparison to an
alarming 2.1% growth observed in 2019 (BP, 2020).6
Energy Matrix: Implications and advances in Latin America Nº 13
and the Caribbean January 2021
Latin American context
The supply matrix of primary energy in Latin America is recognized as one of the
most diverse in the world, including hydropower, biomass, geothermal and other
renewables (Rivera Albarracín, 2019).
According to the Latin American Energy Organization as of 2019, the energy matrix
of Latin America and the Caribbean is distributed as follows:
GRAPHIC 3. Summarized Energy Balance 2018 (OLADE, 2018)
Primary energy matrix ALC 2018
2.5% 9.3%
4.9%
26.9%
22.8% 20%
1% 30%
1%
31.6%
8%
6%
34%
Petróleo Gas natural Carbón mineral Hidroenergía Geotermia Nuclear Otras*
Petroleum Natural gas Mineral carbon Hydro Geothermal Nuclear Other
* Other primaries include: Biogas, solar, wind, plant waste, cane products, wood.
Nevertheless, this overall and general picture is nuanced. For example, it is important
to highlight that a good part of the biomass is made up of wood for cooking and
heating in rural areas and the urban outskirts. It is an inefficient and unsustainable
consumption that generates a high risk for health, mainly of women and children,
and also contributes to climate change, aggravating forest deforestation and
degradation (Rivera Albarracín, 2019).7
Energy Matrix: Implications and advances in Latin America Nº 13
and the Caribbean January 2021
In recent years, energy transition policies promoted by states in the region have
focused on reversing the situation and diversifying energy matrices. In most cases,
the crisis was constructed as an almost exclusive problem of deficit supply that could
be solved with greater investment in the generation sector. During the first decade
of the XXI century, different countries in Latin America promoted renewable energy
development and use schemes. These actions succeeded in placing the region as
one of the most dynamic in the world. However, these policies and schemes face
challenges due to their limited scope in terms of the transformation process.
The dominant transition comes down primarily to achieving diversification of the
electricity generation matrix. But other critical aspects of the system are overlooked,
including issues concerning the oligopoly character of the sector and increased
difficulties to access energy, leading to an increase in energy poverty (Contreras et
al., 2019).
However, according to CEPAL, the present COVID-19 pandemic finds Latin America
and the Caribbean at a moment of economic weakness and macroeconomic
vulnerability. In the decade following the 2008 world financial crisis, regional GDP
growth decreased by 6% to 0,2%. CEPAL also indicates that the COVID-19 pandemic
will be the cause of the greatest economic and social crisis in the region in decades,
with serious negative effects on employment, fight against poverty and reduction
of inequality, impacting economies in the region through external and internal
factors whose joint effect will lead to the worst contraction of economic activity
suffered by the region since registers began
2.0% in 1900. It is estimated that countries in
South America who specialize in exporting primary goods would suffer the greatest
impacts, and therefore, are more vulnerable to a decrease in prices (Guzowski &
26.9%
Florencia, 2020).
30%
8%
31.6%8 Energy Matrix: Implications and advances in Latin America Nº 13 and the Caribbean January 2021 Advances in Latin America In Latin America, countries with greater advances rely on structured public policies and regulatory frameworks that allow the electricity sector to develop efficiently and sustainably, particularly in the area of renewable resources. These advances are measured according to national policies, taxes, incentives, access to the network, market regulatory instruments and financing. Countries which have made the most progress include: Brazil, Mexico, Uruguay, Argentina, Chile, Panama, Peru and Nicaragua. Countries which are making progress include Honduras, Colombia, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Costa Rica and Paraguay. Finally, some countries are still far behind and include Venezuela, Guyana, Belize, Bolivia and Surinam (Moreno Castillo, 2017). Following is an analysis of a select group of them. Argentina The energy matrix of Argentina depends highly on hydrocarbons, particularly natural gas. By way of context, in 2018, 87.5% of the total internal energy supply came from fossil fuels (58.4% natural gas, 27.7% oil and 1.4% carbons), determining a low participation relative to other sources such as hydroelectric and nuclear energy, which nevertheless have considerable significance when analyzing the generation of energy (Mastronardi et al., 2019). Brazil Brazil has a highly diverse energetic matrix, as it has energy resources based on hydrocarbons, renewable resources and nuclear energy. Additionally, they have the largest power plant in Latin America, Itaipú, located between Paraguay and Brazil, with an installed capacity of 14 GW, considered the second largest in the world (Mourón & Onuki, 2015). Brazil has a great diversity of renewable resources. Its large territory strongly impacted by high solar radiation allows Brazil to benefit from solar energy potential. However, policy barriers and high costs have not allowed the exploitation of solar energy. In the case of wind energy, in 2018 Brazil had 568 plants installed, in addition to other 14 GW of installed renewable capacity (Abeeolica, 2018). Thanks to initiatives and support by the State, Brazil occupied the third place in generation through renewables (Cortés & Arango, 2017). The following graph shows energy sources in Brazil in 2019. At present, 83% of Brazils electric matrix comes from renewable sources, according to the Secretary of Energy Planning and Development of the Ministry of Mines and Energy, Reive Barros. Participation is led by hydroelectric power (63.8%), followed by wind power (9.3%), biomass and biogas (8.9%) and centralized solar sources (1.4%) (Governo do Brasil, 2020).
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Energy Matrix: Implications and advances in Latin America Nº 13
and the Caribbean January 2021
Colombia
According to the Latin America Energy Organization, main energy sources of Colombia are oil,
followed by natural gas and hydroelectricity (OLADE, 2018).
GRAPHIC 4. Energy sources – Colombia (OLADE, 2018)
Energy matrix Colombia 2018
12%
12%
42%
11%
23%
4.9%
26.9%
20%
30%
Petróleo Gas Natural Carbón mineral Hidroenergía Otras*
Petroleum Natural gas 31.6%
Mineral carbon Hydro Other*
31.6%
* Other primaries include: Biogas, solar, wind energy, plant waste, cane and firewood.
34%
With respect to generation of electricity, Colombia has an installed capacity of approximately
16 000 MW of which 69.77% is generated from water power plants, 18.30% corresponds to
thermal power stations and 11.94% from other renewable energy sources such as wind power
(Cortés & Arango, 2017).10
Energy Matrix: Implications and advances in Latin America Nº 13
and the Caribbean January 2021
Chile
According to the International Energy Agency (2020), oil, carbons and biofuels continue to
represent the majority of Chile´s energy matrix and renewable sources such as wind and
solar make up 3%.
2.0%
GRAPHIC 5. Source of energy9.3%
– Chile (IEA, 2020)
2.5%
26.9%
30%
Energy sources Chile 2019
3%
8%
31.6%
17%
4% 42%
14%
20%
Petróleo Carbón Gas Natural Hidroenergía
2.0% Biocombustibles y residuos Solar, eólica, etc.
Petroleum Coal Natural gas Hydro Biofuels and waste Solar, wind, etc.
2.5% 9.3%
On the side of power generation, Chile has had a historic preference for renewables. In the
1980s, hydroelectric participation in the total generation of energy reached 80%. However, in
the last five years, average participation in the generation of hydroelectric was 32%, in spite of
significant existing potential. Retaking this preference is the goal of the Energy Policy. It seeks
to implement measures to stimulate renewable energies to 60% by 2035, and at least 70%
from electric generation by 2050 (Ministerio de Energía, 2017).11
Energy Matrix: Implications and advances in Latin America Nº 13
and the Caribbean January 2021
Costa Rica
Costa Rica is a recognized country in terms of its use of renewable energy sources to satisfy
the total internal demand for electricity. However, the consumption of oil-based products still
represents about 60% of all the final energy consumed (Zárate & Ramírez, 2016). Costa Rica
is one of the few countries that produces a 100% of its electricity from renewable sources
during most of the year. In fact, 2018 was the fourth consecutive year in which Costa Rica
generated more than 98% of its electricity based on renewable sources. So far, Costa Rica
has mainly used hydroelectric energy to generate electricity - in 2017 / 2018 it represented
72% - and the country is close to reaching its full potential. The biomass and geothermal
resources are used both in the heating and hydroelectric energy sectors. In order to reduce
the dependence of hydroelectric energy during stronger droughts, the country has started to
diversify its electricity sources. In 2018, wind energy represented 15% of the combination of
electricity, by contrast to 4% in 2011 (Van Riet et al., 2020).
Peru
According to the Latin America Energy Organization, the energy matrix of Peru is mainly made
up of natural gas and oil, followed by hydro-energy (OLADE, 2018).
GRAPHIC 6. Energy sources – Peru (OLADE, 2018)
Energy matrix Peru 2018
10%
11%
37%
2%
40%
Petroleum Natural gas Mineral carbon Hydro Other*
* Others primaries include: Biogas, solar, wind, plant waste, cane products and firewood.12 Energy Matrix: Implications and advances in Latin America Nº 13 and the Caribbean January 2021 In 2018, the energy matrix of Peru was composed of 48% electricity generation based on natural gas, 43% hydraulic generation, 3% diesel and residual. 3% wind and solar, 2% carbon, and 1% biomass and biogas. You will notice quite a clean matrix as more than half generated comes from renewable resources. An element to highlight in the Peruvian market is the actual oversupply of electricity generation, estimated to end by year 2020. Thus, the market shall require thousands of megawatts of new generation for future years. The cancelation or postponement without a clear date of the South Peruvian gas pipeline has totally changed the perspectives of future prices in a context where the country requires private investment and guaranteeing stable and low tariffs for ordinary people and small industries (Revista Energía, 2019). In that context, it is expected that future auctions of renewable resources result in reduced premiums, including a premium or subsidy for wind and solar may be zero or near zero, favoring final clients (Coronado, 2020). On the other hand, a pending challenge of the sector is to provide energy to rural zones through the extension of networks and unconventional solutions. The current levels of 92% electrification may reach coverage values close to 100%, through more conventional networks installed in easy access areas, but above all, through systems with renewable technologies such as off-grid photovoltaic solar panels for remote populations (Gamio, 2016). Other changes or normative reforms are under discussion: declaration of variable costs of thermal power stations and regulation of the distributed generation law, still pending when elaborating this report.
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Energy Matrix: Implications and advances in Latin America Nº 13
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Challenges and goals
n De-carbonization of energy matrices in LAC countries: towards an
energy transition
The problem of climate change requires reaching net carbon emissions equal to zero for
2050 and a drastic reduction of emissions by year 2030. To that effect, LAC countries have
presented their commitments in the context of the Paris Agreement (commitments called
Nationally Determined Contributions or NDCs) and must implement actions to manage the
mitigation of such emissions. Evidence reveals that this transition is possible through the
production of electricity without carbon emissions; electrification of industries, transport,
heating and cooking; improving efficiency in the use of resources concerning the energetic
sector (BID and DDPLAC, 2019).
Likewise, this context of climate urgency is triggering the interest of final users, at
the corporative level, over GEI emissions of their energy consumption. Assigning an
environmental benefit (less emissions) for clean energy is a pending issue, having been
addressed on a pilot basis through mechanisms such as clean energy or green certificates,
offered by generation companies as in the case of Chile.
n Distributed generation: new instruments to increase a generation of
cleaner and more efficient electricity
Energy transition towards a zero emissions matrix cannot only be achieved with the
implementation of large projects such as solar and wind parks, or geothermal or biomass
developments. New schemes such as distributed generation2 that allows generation at
the consumption point, in smaller capacities, democratizes the energy system increasing
possibilities to generate renewable energy taking advantage of the fact that the resource
is not concentrated (Norma Martínez & Margarita Porcelli, 2018).
Several countries such as Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Dominican Republic and Costa Rica
among others have made progress with regards to distributed generation. However, there
is the need to develop further the regulatory framework to promote this opportunity lifting
normative barriers and bureaucratic connection procedures.
n Energy matrices in the context of COVID-19 (2020)
Although the COVID-19 pandemic is a large-scale global tragedy, we must not stop
2 This is usually the case when a user-generator exceeds the demand and can re-inject the surplus on the network or
to the company of distribution and receive economic compensation, improving the financial economic performance
of projects or installations with renewable energy such as solar.14 Energy Matrix: Implications and advances in Latin America Nº 13 and the Caribbean January 2021 capitalizing valuable lessons and good practices. From an environmental perspective, the brutal reduction of GEI emissions and concentration of contaminants has been experienced, the latter producing an improvement of air quality, clearly evident in cities such as Buenos Aires, Lima and Santiago de Chile. The pandemic has allowed the development of an “experiment in real time without precedents around the world” regarding emissions and air quality (BID, 2020). Our societies highly depend on energy and this has been evident during the year 2020. At the same time, this special situation has shown us the viability of alternatives such as remote work or working from home and has also presented challenges for the decarbonization of energy matrices due to the drastic reduction of oil prices (Ayala-Chauvin & Riba, 2020). Even though the energy sector transferred consumptions to the residential sector, the first months of the pandemic evidenced a 30% reduction for the demand for electricity in LAC countries, according to OLADE reports. (OLADE, 2020). Agencies such as IRENA have noted that stimulus and recovery measures may be an opportunity to construct more sustainable, equitable and resilient economies, and at the same time be in line with the Paris Agreement objectives and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This may help in the achievement of multiple economic and social objectives in the search of a better future (IRENA,2020). It is responsibility of governments and decision-makers not to lose this only opportunity for a clean and sustainable energy future. n Carbon pricing Introduction of financial mechanisms and for management to price carbon could respond to many of the challenges concerning equity and development and Latin America and contribute to national efforts (i.e. strategies, programs, plans) to reduce carbon emissions. Countries such as Chile, Colombia and Mexico have already introduced a series of these mechanisms to create incentives and facilitate transitions towards renewable energies in a more competitive market as companies and industries internalize carbon related externalities (Trinidad, 2019).
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and the Caribbean January 2021
Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e.V.
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