Astrology: Fact or Fiction - Toward Transparency of the Baseless Science A Report for the Residents of Washington State Commissioned by RAMAN
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Astrology: Fact or Fiction
Toward Transparency of the Baseless Science
A Report for the Residents of Washington State Commissioned by RAMAN
Report Overview
This publication is the result of the collaborative efforts of RAMAN (Residents Against
the Misuse of Astrological Nonsense), an organization that seeks to expose both the
absurdity of astrology as well as the harm done in following astrological forecasts, and
researchers Hande Ayan and Mike Foote. RAMAN is indebted to the Klawitter
Foundation for their generous support.
This report looks at astrological birth signs of Washingtonians in relation to the
correlating life outcomes. Through the dissemination of its findings, RAMAN seeks to
build public awareness around astrology’s unsound practices and predictions.
-Hande Ayan and Mike Foote
Contents
2 Report Overview
3 Executive Summary
4 Introduction
5 Data and Methodology
5 Astrology in Washington: The State’s Astrological Demographic
6 Results and Analysis
6 o Aquarius: More Socially Minded?
7 o Aries: Really a Fighter?
8 o Taurus: Happier in Marriage?
8 o Libra: Creative and Naturally Artistic?
9 o Sagittarius: Seeker of Wisdom?
9 o Virgo: Financially Successful?
10 o Gemini: Works Less?
10 Data Constraints
11 Conclusions: Where to Go From Here?
2
Executive Summary
For many Washingtonians, Astrology influences daily decisions, pursuits, hopes and
fears. Despite general agreement by the scientific community that astrology is a false-
science, over 1/3 of Americans continue to believe
in the validity of its predictions. Washingtonians No evidence was found
have even gone so far as to establish the Washington to support the claim
State Astrological Association, an organization that birth signs
dedicated to training astrologers and disseminating influence life outcomes.
astrological beliefs. This study, in the pursuit of
transparency and truth, examined Washingtonians birth signs through the lens of the
Washington State Population Survey, and found no correlation between birth signs and
their associated life outcomes. Despite being predicted to be so by astrologers,
• Aquarians are not more socially minded,
• Aries are not more involved in the Armed Forces,
• Tauri are no less likely to be separated or divorced,
• Librans are not more engaged in artistic work,
• Virgos do not earn higher salaries,
• Sagittarians are not more educated, and
• Gemini work just as hard as everyone else.
Implications from these findings include new public awareness around the underlying
falsities of astrological claims, helping Washingtonians make more educated investments
when seeking out advice for life’s challenges.
3
Introduction
Astrology is the study of the influences of the cosmos on life on earth.1 According to
astrologers, the month in which an individual is born is associated with one of twelve
constellations found in the zodiac. These signs, according to astrologers, are used to
predict personality traits and future events.
The scientific community now considers astrology to be a pseudoscience and places it in
the category of “superstition.”2 Yet despite the scientific community’s general
agreement, belief in the tenants of astrology is still widespread: 31% of Americans
believe in it and 39% consider it scientific.345
While astrology had its place in the historical transmission of traditions and life lessons
from one generation to the next, there are real present day consequences to adhering to its
suggestions, including:
• Expending Money for False Advice: As a result of misinformation on the
robustness of astrological predictions, hundreds of millions of dollars are spent on
astrology every year in the United States alone. 6
• Tainting the Real Science of Astronomy: Astrology is often confused with the
science of astronomy, tarnishing the reputation of astronomers and their work.
• Relying on Uncritical Thinking: Astrology encourages people to rely on
providence rather than action to address life’s challenges. 7
The public currently lacks accurate information on astrological products. The
clarification of what is real science and what is fictional is of vital importance to all
Washingtonians seeking direction in their lives. This study seeks to show, through
statistical analysis of Washingtonians’ life styles and behaviors, that astrology is little
more than fortunetelling.
1
David Pingree. The Dictionary of the History of Ideas, Astrology. Retrieved on 2007-12-18.
2
Astronomical Pseudo-Science: A Skeptic's Resource List. Astronomical Society of the Pacific.
3
Objections to Astrology: A Statement by 186 Leading Scientists. The Humanist, September/October 1975.
4
Humphrey Taylor. The Religious and Other Beliefs of Americans 2003. Retrieved on 2007-01-05.
5
Science and Technology: Public Attitudes and Understanding. National Science Foundation. Retrieved on
2007-01-05.
6
Bad Astronomy: http://www.badastronomy.com/bad/misc/astrology.html
7
Bad Astronomy: http://www.badastronomy.com/bad/misc/astrology.html
4
Data and Methodology
The study was designed to investigate the relationship, if any, between birth signs and
real life outcomes. In this report, this study employed data from the Washington State
Populations Survey for 2006. Individuals
were coded for their birth sign according to Table 1: Birthdays for Birth Signs
the birth date chart in table 1, which follows
the 12 zodiac constellations prevalent in
Western astrology (well known in daily
horoscope predictions).
The study chose 7 of the 12 birth signs as the
foundation of its analysis. These 7 signs
were selected for their clearly distinguishable
characteristics that also translated strongly to
the available survey data. Characteristics of
individual signs were then analyzed to
determine if significant differences were
present amongst the birth signs. In the
analysis of each individual birth sign, the sign in question was compared to a grouping of
all other birth signs (i.e. “Gemini” and “Other”). Results rejecting the differences
between groups would corroborate the current prevailing scientific opinion, while results
supporting the differences would add scientific weight to astrological claims.
Astrology in Washington:
A Brief Look at the States Astrological Demographics
In Washington State, groups like the Fig. 1
Washington State Astrological Association8
(WASS), promote the networking of astrologers
as well as the dissemination of astrological
beliefs. Various colleges and universities,
including Kepler State, also offer courses in
astrology. According to the Survey data, these
groups serve a roughly evenly distributed
spread of the 12 astrological signs. Of an
expected even break for each sign of around
81/3% of the population, there is a range from a
low of an estimated 7.3% state makeup of
Sagittarians to a high of a 9.1% state makeup of
8
For more information visit http://www.washingtonastrologers.org/
5
Taurans (Fig. 1).9 The 7 signs that were used in this analysis Table 2: Percent of Each
made up 59.7%10 of the entire sample population, very close to Sign in King County
the expected 58.3%.
Along with this mostly even divide, the signs had a fairly even
distribution across the state. For example the percentage of
each sign represented in the King County sample had a range of
a minimum of 20% of the Taurans to a maximum of 25% of the
Sagittarians (Table 2).
Although astrologers may claim that certain areas attract
particular signs due to embedded cosmic energies, the purpose
of this section is merely descriptive – in-depth analysis of
geographic influence on the prevalence and distribution of birth
signs is beyond the scope of this study.
Results and Analysis
The following results are broken down across each of the 7 chosen birth signs. Each
analysis builds on the previous to paint a picture of Washingtonians unaffected by
astrological forces:
• Aquarians More Socially Minded?
Aquarians are, as astrologists’ claim, interested in other people, in causes, and in
generally making the world a better place. Accordingly, Aquarians are supposed to have
a predilection for serving others. It would therefore be expected that, on average, more
Aquarians would be working in government and social services than non-Aquarians.
For this analysis, job types held by Fig. 2
individuals in the Survey were broken into
two categories: socially oriented and non-
socially oriented. Respondents indicating
their job type as “self-employed,” “family
business” or “for profit employment” were No Statistical
categorized under non-socially oriented, Difference!
while those indicating “government” or
“non-profit” job types were placed under
socially oriented.
From a visual analysis of Aquarians vs.
others (Fig. 2) it appears that Aquarians have a slightly higher rate of involvement in
9
n=9555
10
The 7 signs had a total of 5704 respondents
6
socially oriented professions. However, a statistical analysis of job-types held between
Aquarians and others revealed that such a difference in the population as a whole is
unlikely; no significant difference was found in the employment tendencies between
Aquarians and non-Aquarians.11 In other words, the data suggests that Aquarians pick
more social-serving careers at a similar rate to all others.
• Aries Really Fighters?
Individuals with the birth sign of Aries are, according to astrologers, fighters. Thus,
Aries are expected to have greater involvement in organizations and activities that engage
in conflict, such as the Armed Forces, than are non-Aries.
The results of comparing Aries’ Armed Forces involvement to that of all others gives
little indication that the astrological powers of strength and a fighting will, supposedly
vested in Aries, actually play out in the
real lives of Washingtonians. The rates Fig. 3
of Armed Forces involvement between
Aries and non-Aries are very close in No Statistical
magnitude (Fig. 3) and the small Difference!
difference that is discernible in the
sample population is not statistically
significant for the population as a
whole.12 In fact, assuming that there is no
difference between the averages, we
would be very likely to find the small
difference that we did find. 13
But perhaps the astrologers got it wrong with Washington State Aries and that in the
Northwest, other signs are actually
more able and willing to be Fig. 4
fighters. Examining the frequency
of involvement in the Armed
Forces by birth sign (Fig. 4), there
does appear to be a large range of
rates of involvement, especially so
between Leos (with 19.0%
involvement) and Aquarians (with
15.0% involvement). None-the-
less, after running a statistical
analysis of the difference between
these particular two signs’
11
Based on a two-tailed t-test with a 95% confidence interval. The t-value for Aquarians to non-Aquarians
was .838 with a p-value of .402.
12
Based on a two-tailed t-test with a 95% confidence interval. The t-value for Aries to non-Aries was .188
with a p-value of .189.
13
p=.851
7
involvement, it cannot be said with high confidence that even this difference is
significant.14
• Tauri Happily Married?
According to Astrologers, Tauri are generally happier and more successful in their
marriages than are other birth signs. We would
therefore expect a lower proportion of Tauri to Fig. 5
currently be divorced or separated compared to
other signs. Figure 5 shows both surveyed
groups similar in the comparison of
divorce/separation proportions, although Tauri
with a slightly lower proportion.15 None-the- No Statistical
less, statistical analysis did not reveal any Difference!
significant difference in these rates, indicating
that Tauri are likely to have similar marital
troubles as everyone else.16
• Librans More Artistic?
Librans are supposedly endowed from above with creative and artistic capacities, and are
said to be highly engaged in the arts. To assess the validity of this astrological claim,
Survey data exposing the “kind of work” in which individuals were engaged in, in 2006,
was divided into two categories, one for work demanding more of an artistic side and the
other for work generally demanding less: 17
Artistic Work Fig. 5
• Architecture and Engineering
• Arts, Design, Entertainment
• Productions
Difference not
statistically
Less Artistic Work significant!
• Healthcare Support
• Protective Service
• Sales and Related
Figure 6 indicates that sample data shows Librans slightly more engaged in such artistic
work than non-Librans, although an associated statistical analysis did not support the
14
t=1.845, p=.065 (*note that the small p-value does give us some confidence that the observed difference
would not be normally associated with equal rates of involvement)
15
Avg. Taurus = 0.1088; Avg. Other = 0.1188
16
Based on a two-tailed t-test with a 95% confidence interval. The t-value for Taureans to non-Taureans
was .504 with a p-value of .615.
17
Not all of the “less artistic” categories are shown here.
8
existence of this difference in the population as a whole,18 indicating that Librans are
likely engaged in artistic expression in the workplace at a rate comparable to others.
• Sagittarians Wiser?
Sagittarians are known as “seekers of wisdom.” Thus, it is expected that Sagittarians, on
average, achieve higher levels of education than do others. To assess the validity of this
heavenly endowment, those who earned a Fig. 6
bachelor’s degree or higher in the Survey
data were categorized together as “highly
educated” whereas the other levels
(associate degree and below) were
categorized as “not highly educated.”19 No Statistical
Difference!
As shown in Figure 6, Sagittarians did not
have a statistically significant higher rate of
educational attainment (if anything, they
appear to have a slightly lower rate from
the sample data proportions).20
• Virgos Financially Successful?
Virgos, according to astrologers, are aided by forces from above to become financially
successful. With the help of this celestial pocketbook, it would be expected that Virgos,
on average, would earn more than non-Virgos.
In this particular analysis, 2005 personal Fig. 7
earnings data were used from the Survey
instead of household income data. 21 The
data indicate that people in Washington,
No Statistical
on average, earn $44,523. The average Difference!
earnings reported by the data for Virgos
are $ 47,421, while for all other signs are
$44,302.22 Though the sample data
means between the two groups show
Virgos earning almost $3,000 more than other people in Washington State, the amount is
not statistically significant (Figure 7), supporting the scientific stance that financial
success is determined by personal, not celestial, endowments. 23
18
Based on a two-tailed t-test with a 95% confidence interval. The t-value for Librans to non-Librans was
1.313 with a p-value of .189.
19
Values: Highly educated = 1, not highly educated = 0.
20
Based on a two-tailed t-test with a 95% confidence interval. The t-value =.248 with a p-value = .804.
21
Since household income is the combination of more than two individuals, it would be hard to trace the
characteristics of a certain sign. Thus, we chose personal earnings to figure out the relationship between the
sign and the earning.
22
95% confidence interval for all others: $51,628 and a lower level of $43,213, confidence interval for
Virgo: $46,332 and $54,747
23
= 0.10, p = 0.222, = 41827.91, Z = 1.223
9
Gemini: Have more leisure time?
Astrologists state that Gemini tend to be lazy when it comes to work and that Gemini are
reluctant to work overtime. In a given
workweek, Gemini are generally expected to
average less hours on the job than others.
No Statistical
This investigation took advantage of the weekly Difference!
work hours Survey data for all jobs held.
According to the analysis, Gemini are not as
blissfully lazy as astrologers might claim (they
work between 40 and 42 hours a week)24.
Furthermore, they do not appear to work less than others either - based on a statistical
comparison of average work hours, Gemini seem to working about the same as everyone
else. 25
Data Constraints
There were a variety of data constraints, including necessary assumptions and
confounding variables, which should be considered when considering the above results:
• Astrologers Not in Agreement
Unfortunately astrologers themselves often provide more confusion than clarity when it
comes to defining the strengths of one sign over another. Astrologers rarely agree on
what one sign connotes and even then are enigmatic when it comes to clarity in their
definitions. The analysis attempted to mitigate this effect by using birth sign
characteristics that were common across multiple references.
• Assumptions Made in Variable Choice:
This study necessarily narrowly defined birth sign characteristics to single variables,
making a number of assumptions in these characterizations. The most significant are:
* “Kind of Work” Variable Restrictive (Libra): The kind of work variable that
was used to define one’s artistic inclination may too narrowly constrain ways in
which Librans express their artistic side.
* “Fighters” Boxed in to Armed Forces Involvement (Aries): Aries’
predisposition to be fighters may very well be expressed in ways other than active
duty.
* “Highly Educated” Constrained to Academics (Sagittarius): The definition
employed for “highly educated” individuals was restrained to academic
achievement, in particular degrees received. It is possible that an individual may
24
95% confidence interval: min-39.75 hrs, max-42.48 hrs
25
95% significance, z=1.251, p-value = .212
10be highly educated in non-degree oriented areas, such as vocational, art or
spiritual.
• Confounding Variables:
* Divorce Connected to Marriage Rate (Taurus): Unfortunately, the Survey data
did not provide marriage rates, but rather simply the current state of marriages. It
is possible that Tauri have actually maintained a first marriage at a higher rate
than others.
* Astrology More Complicated Than Single Traits:
While this study focused on single characteristics to assess the validity of the field
of astrology, astrologers often make their predictions on a multiplicity of inputs,
in addition to birth sign, basing a final predication on a complex web of
supposedly interrelated phenomena (including moon signs, age, gender, partner,
and more).
Conclusions and Recommendations
Despite a variety of analyses of birth sign characteristics, not a single astrological claim
was shown to carry statistical weight in the Washington population. Instead, the
investigation of birth sign characteristics painted a fairly bleak picture of the validity of
astrologers’ claims. The data led to the following specific conclusions:
• Aquarians are not more socially minded,
• Aries are not more involved in the Armed Forces,
• Tauri are no less likely to be separated or divorced,
• Librans are not more engaged in artistic work,
• Virgos do not earn higher salaries,
• Sagittarians are not more educated, and
• Gemini work just as hard as everyone else.
Given these condemning results, RAMAN proposes the following recommendations to
the residents of Washington:
• Approach astrological data with skepticism, remembering that its predictions are
not backed by statistical evidence.
• Carefully invest your limited dollars in real solutions to the challenges you are
facing. Alternatives may include professional development, career searches,
counseling, and/or dating services.
11• Do not pre-judge your day based on what you read in the newspaper – instead, be
proactive about the kind of day you want to have.
Additionally, the Washington State legislature may wish to consider policy to protect its
residents from the consequences (or lack thereof) of following astrological advice. Such
strategies may include:
• Licensure: A state approved certificate for astrologers that ensures all astrologers
are versed in the ethical implications of their work, understanding the
consequences their predictions can have the lives of others.
• Warning Tag: Similar to a surgeon general’s warning, there could be a label
placed on all astrological products, building awareness that what is claimed or
advised is not backed by scientific research.
Finally, despite the excoriating evidence gathered through this report, perhaps the most
telling is from personal experience. One of the authors of this study is considered a
“Time Twin” by astrologers, that is a twin born very close in time to the other twin26. As
a qualitative and somewhat definitive test for astrological likeness the two could not be
further apart. Both are Libras and yet have different incomes, look different, have
different artistic and cognitive strengths and weaknesses, and have very different success
rates with relationships.
As Dean and Kelly, two prominent critics of astrology, state, “Astrology has one sure
thing in common with parapsychology — a highly visible outpouring of market-driven
nonsense that threatens to bury the work of serious researchers.27”
It may be best to enjoy the grandeur of the universe as it is, rather than hoping for more
mystical forces to be subtly at work.
26
Births < 1 min apart.
27
Geoffrey Dean and Ivan W. Kelly: Is Astrology Relevant to Consciousness and Psi?
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