Basketball Strategy Projected-The Oklahoma City Thunder
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Basketball Strategy Projected-The Oklahoma City Thunder David Jacober-9/17/17 ABSTRACT Enclosed is an analysis of the 2017 Offseason activity of the Oklahoma City Thunder. I examine the Thunder’s competitive advantages, both with their roster and their market. OKC’s projected liabilities, the future of the cap, and how it would impact the Thunder’s long-term financial viability. Finally, I try to outline a projected strategy for the Thunder moving forward through 2018.
Table of Contents
Macro Summer Review-Oklahoma City Thunder ........................................................................ 2
Cap Projections, the Thunder’s looming Tax Bill, Their Assets and Their Completive
Advantages................................................................................................................................................. 5
The Thunder’s looming Tax Bill...................................................................................................................... 6
OKC’s Competitive Advantages/Disadvantages ........................................................................................ 7
Recommended Offseason Strategic Targets .................................................................................. 8
2017 Draft Strategy: ............................................................................................................................................ 8
Potential Low cost Options at Guard with a little upside? ................................................................. 10
Trading for Undervalued Players ................................................................................................................ 10
Riding It Out With Westbrook ...................................................................................................................... 11
Taking Carmelo’s Temperature ................................................................................................................... 12
Strategy Objectives Moving Forward ............................................................................................. 12
Conclusion................................................................................................................................................ 14
Table Of Figures
Table 1 OKC Additions this summer ....................................................................................................................................3
Table 2 OFF-EFF ALL Time Leaders .....................................................................................................................................3
Table 3 Golden State vs. +/- PP100 (5) Worst .................................................................................................................4
Table 4 Thunder Tax Table ......................................................................................................................................................7
Table 5 Singler’s Stretched Contract ................................................................................................................................. 10
Table 6 Undervalued Players to Monitor ........................................................................................................................ 11
Table 7 Highest USG Players OFF Court Per 100 Possessions ............................................................................... 11
Table 8 OKC Lineup Projections .......................................................................................................................................... 13
Figure 1 Cap Growth vs. Percent Increase .........................................................................................................................5
Figure 2 Free Agent Money Spent: Trailing 4 Seasons .................................................................................................5
Figure 3 Thunder Projected Cap Vs. League Salary Cap Growth at 3.5% ............................................................6
2Macro Summer Review-Oklahoma City Thunder
The Oklahoma City Thunder (OKC) had one of the league’s most intriguing offseasons from a player
acquisition standpoint. The Thunder saw their roster fundamentally change in response to their 2017 first
round loss (4-1) to the Houston Rockets. OKC made one of the summer’s biggish splashes with the addition of
one of the league’s better two-way wings, Paul George (11th in ESPN.com’s Real Plus/Minus 2.58).
The trade could be viewed as a calculated gamble in exchanging young talent for a player whom could depart
in free agency next season by exercising his 2018 Player Option. Still, unlike most teams, OKC has proven they
are willing to take calculated risks. However, unlike the James Harden trade several years ago, (which I would
argue fits with a more sustainable value transaction), some could view this as more of a situational value
transaction should George and Russell Westbrook depart next summer. Below is a list of OKC’s roster
additions.
Player Age Position Acquired VIA
Paul George 27 3/2/SB-4 (Trade)
Patrick Patterson 28 4/SB-5 UFA (2+1) TPMLE
Terrence Ferguson 19 2/3 Draft (21th overall)
Raymond Felton 33 1 UFA (10+ VET MIN)
Daniel Hamilton 22 3/2 Two-way contract
Table 1 OKC Additions this summer
The only quasi-substantial loss from the Thunder’s perspective was Taj Gibson whom departed via
unrestricted free agency (UFA) to the Minnesota Timberwolves on a two-year $28 million deal.
Last season, even despite a herculean effort by the Thunder’s and league’s Most Valuable Player Russell
Westbrook, offensively Oklahoma City (as constructed) could not go tit-for-tat offensively with the high
powered offenses in the Western Conference, namely the Golden State Warriors and the Houston Rockets.
The Warriors in specific are one of the most prolific offensive teams the league has ever seen. The 2016-17
Warriors ended up tying the record for best Offenses per 100 possessions (115.6) in the three-point area
according to basketball-references.com’s database. The previous season, the 2015-16 Warriors ended up
finishing 14th of all time (114.5) during the same era.
Year Team OFF-EFF All Time Rank
2016-17 GSW 115.6 Tied 1st
2016-17 HOU 114.7 10th
2015-16 GSW 114.5 14th
Table 2 OFF-EFF ALL Time Leaders
The Rockets--Offensively they aren’t slouches either. Last year, the Rockets put together the 10th best season
in the three-point area from an OFF EFF standpoint (114.7). Houston also made a splash this season in adding
All-Star point guard Chris Paul, whom not only is one of the better two way point guards (led N.B.A. point
guards in ESPN’s Real Plus Minus, and third in PER for players playing over 30 min/g), but he will also add
some intangible elements to the Rockets team fabric.
Golden State lost a total of 15 games last regular season and only ONE game all throughout the playoffs. They
are returning with much of their core group, which will make this year’s Warriors team just has tough to beat.
Most top-heavy teams like Golden State and now Houston are usually weak in their bench because their
resources are tied up in their starters. This isn’t the case with Golden State. Last season, they finished with the
league’s second best scoring bench from a net rating standpoint (7.4).
3Still, teams trying to unseat the Golden State as champions would perhaps be wise to build their team in an
antithetical manner. Not trying to outscore the G.S. or Houston, but rather slow it down with better defense.
In the 2016-17 regular season from a +/- per 100 possessions standpoint, the teams that gave G.S. the most
trouble were; Memphis, Boston, San Antonio, and Denver as demonstrated in chart below.
Team +/- Per 100 Possessions #Games
SAS -13.3 3
MEM -0.8 4
BOS +1.6 2
DEN +3.2 3
MIA +4.4 2
Table 3 Golden State vs. +/- PP100 (5) Worst
As shown above, only the Spurs really gave the Warriors any trouble last regular season. In the postseason, no
one really gave G.S. any trouble. According to nbaminers.com’s database, only two of G.S.’s playoff games were
decided by five points or less.
What I believe is important to take away are the types of teams that give the Warriors relative difficulty. Long,
defensive minded teams, who have the personnel to switch and extend out, can slow Golden State’s elite ball-
movement, and force them into tougher more contested shots.
For a further example, the Thunder need only look to their own roster from two seasons ago (2016), in their
playoff series against the Warriors. Long, athletic players like Westbrook, Roberson, Durant, Ibaka, Adams,
and even Dion Waiters gave Golden State immense trouble offensively.
Therefore, finding and utilizing moveable, interchangeable pieces (mostly on the wings and frontcourt) that
can ultimately switch in pick action, and on off-ball screens may be a teams first step in possibly upsetting the
current champions.
With that perspective, perhaps the Thunder did the best job of any team this summer at creating real identity,
and a converse approach to competing in the Western Conference. The OKC coaching staff now has a bevy of
potential line-ups to deploy all season; specifically with the addition of Patrick Patterson (age 28, Stretch 4
small-ball 5) from Toronto.
For instance, OKC could look to use Patterson in a somewhat similar manner as the Spurs deployed Boris Diaw
in the 2014 NBA Finals against the Miami Heat (another dominate small-ball team). While Patterson isn’t the
passer or playmaker Diaw is, in four seasons in Toronto the Raptors were +8.6 (per 100 possessions) with a
NET RTG of +4.2.
Patterson has generally been efficient shooting from the corners (41.2% in 2017). Also, he had an eFG% of
54.9 in catch-and-shoot situations. As a small-ball 5 he could also be effective as a pop-man taking teams away
from ICEing Westbrook on the sideline PnR. Naturally, his ability to stretch gives good value next to a
traditional big like Adams. One line-up, which I think could be geometrically interesting against smaller teams,
would be; Patterson-George-Roberson-Abrines (McDermott)-Westbrook.
4Cap Projections, the Thunder’s looming Tax Bill, Their Assets and Their
Completive Advantages
Much has been written about the league’s salary cap not meeting its expected growth from the previous year. I
even wrote about this last summer. i In other markets (liquid and illiquid alike) usually after a major event,
there is likely to be some sort of correction. That correction can be a crash (a decline in prices), a work
stoppage or regulatory reform, or in the N.B.A.’s case, slower than expected growth. The massive influx of
television money triggered a bubble of sorts. While the bubble hasn’t popped…yet… it did cause what
Economists would refer to as Herding mentalityii. Teams thought that the 2016 growth was the new normal,
which caused a record number amount of FA money spent. Below is a graph of how the Salary Cap grew and
how it is projected to grow over the next eight seasons.
Figure 1 Cap Growth vs. Percent Increase
By the players refusing the league’s smoothing measures we can see the cap spiked, causing a dramatic 34%
jump in a single seson. We can also see in the chart below how the market has begun to snapback to 2015
levels of spending, which has equated to 39% less money spent in free agency than the previous year. (Note
Redline is current.)
Figure 2 Free Agent Money Spent: Trailing 4 Seasons
As with all markets, there were some teams that zigged while other zagged. For instance, the 2016 Memphis
Grizzlies spent wildly ($256.6M) on six players and only managed to win one more game than they did the
previous season. (42 wins in 2016 vs. 43 wins in 2017).
5For contrast, the Thunder only spent $8.5M in free agency and did loose 12 more games, yet still made the
playoffs. Last season, the Thunder spent $1,850,667.32 per win (9% below the league median of $2.2M)
while the Grizzlies spent over $2.5M, which was 12% above the league average.
From a salary cap perspective, moving forward I project that the cap will not have an AAGR (Annual Average
Growth Rate) of roughly 5% (per the league’s forecasts), but rather a more conservative rate of 3.5%.
Figure 3 Thunder Projected Cap Vs. League Salary Cap Growth at 3.5%
Why 3.5%? There is a famous saying that, “the more things change, fundamentally the more they stay the
same.” Naturally, I could be wrong and perhaps the recent run of collective super teams will some how inject
more money from BRI (Basketball Related Income) perspective.
However, because the competitive balance shifted last season, we had fewer playoff games, which meant less
broadcast revenue, which most likely meant less money in the pot. Also consider, by most analyst’s
projections, the traditional big market teams (Los Angeles Lakers, New York Knicks, Chicago Bulls, and Dallas
Mavericks), will miss the playoffs this season hurting overall league wide revenue possibly resulting in a lower
than projected cap.
The Thunder’s looming Tax Bill
One area of concern for the Thunder from a pure financial standpoint is with their luxury tax liabilities. While
I can’t speak to internal budget projections, this season OKC is projected (as of September 10th) to have a
luxury tax bill of roughly $15.5M. According to Forbes,iii the Thunder had an average EBIT (Earnings Before
Interest and Taxes) of $14.6M trailing three years. If those projections hold, the Thunder will, in theory, lose
money this season. These are rough numbers, however, it is something to keep their eye on.
If we make the assumption that the Thunder can retain both Westbrook and George, roughly 87% of their cap
will be committed to two players. This is fine, however, if Enes Kanter opts in, and they return much of their
core group or maybe even look to add a third “star,” OKC could be looking at a team salary north of $142M. As
of now the tax line, per the league’s projections, is scheduled to be $123M. This would mean that the Thunder
would also be a repeater tax team per the rules of the C.B.A. This would result in a projected tax payment of
roughly $56.4 million.
6Naturally, trades can be made in order to limit a team’s tax burden, but at what cost does Oklahoma City want
to mortgage the future by either trading valuable assets in draft picks for tax relief? Utilizing the league’s
stretch Provision or “buyouts” are always an option as well, but even if the Thunder “stretch” Enes Kanter’s
one year deal over from July 1-Aug 31st iv they would still result in roughly $6.2M on the Thunder’s books,
roughly 6% of wasted or dead space. Below is a table outlining OKC’s potential tax liabilities.
Season TM Salary Tax Total
2014 $77,876,390 $2,943,950.00
2015 $93,765,298 $14,544,273
2016 $86,981,364 -
2017 $128,986,308 $15,760,541
2018 $142,632,826 $56,400,000 $89,648,764
Table 4 Thunder Tax Table
OKC’s Competitive Advantages/Disadvantages
Market Advantages
+STABILITY: Two coaches in nine seasons, steady management since relocation, and smaller ownership
group.
+ Average Age: 34.1
+ Average Home/Condo Value: $148,500.00
+ Ranked 7th in 2014 For Business
+ Tech and Energy two biggest sector
+ 1.4% below National Average for Cost Of Living
+ Median Household income: $55,100.00 (on par with National Avg)
+ 3.5 Hour Flight to New York City and Los Angeles
+ Single Pro Sport City
+ 25th Ranked NBA media market v
+ 12th in average ticket pricevi
+ 12th in league revenue vii
Summary:
Being in a smaller or middle market certainly has its disadvantages when trying to attract certain free agents.
As of now, Oklahoma City isn’t viewed as a destination for potential free agents because it is perceived to be a
small market. As demonstrated above, that doesn’t mean it’s small in terms of revenue, where they ranked
12th league wide.
Being in a single sports town means less competition when trying to sell advertising against other “sports and
leisure” businesses. OKC might not be a “sexy” destination like Miami, LA, or New York, but during the
offseason, players aren’t required to stay in OKC and are only a three-four hour flight to the coasts.
Most importantly, being away from massive media markets means the Thunder can operate within some
ambiguity unlike the media feeding frenzy that takes place in New York, Boston, Los Angeles, and Chicago,
making it “theoretically” easier to strategize and plan.
OKC has also been one of the league’s more consistent franchises in terms of stability. It has not been a
revolving door of coaches (only two in nine seasons) or front office executives. In my conversations with
agents and other league executives, that stability does give Oklahoma City an advantage of having a consistent
message when moving forward with specific agendas and strategies.
7Strategically, finding players who fit the Thunder’s culture and team’s goals will be more obvious. For
instance, we know that if a player wants to sign with us, it most likely won’t be for warm beaches and movie
stars. This is important because they will be “our type” of player and have a better chance of buying into the
team’s culture and infrastructure.
Recommended Offseason Strategic Targets
Recommending a certain path, a team should or shouldn’t explore is always rather nebulous because it is
making a recommendation without all the facts. However, here would be my suggested strategy for the
Thunder starting on draft night last season. (Note: In full transparency, I did not believe the Thunder had the
needed assets to acquire Paul George, so these suggestions would have been in lieu of a Paul George.)
2017 Draft Strategy:
I have written extensively on different team’s draft strategies. viii I find it to be one of the most difficult
processes to advise teams on because of what appears to be the random nature of the draft. Therefore, I have
always favored a strategy of trading back to accumulate more picks and taking as many swings as I can to
maximize my odds. (Note: My methodology has tendency to favor shooting wings, playing making 4s and
doesn’t include players sub 6’2’’.) What is also interesting is that the draft is beginning to generally track the
market. Media outlets like, DraftExpress, NBADraftnet, and ESPN have created a real market for the expected
value (draft position) of each player.
Also we shouldn’t discount the potential of the 2018 NBA Draft. Michael Porter, Marvin Bagley, Luca Doncic,
Kevin Knox, Miles Bridges, Rui Hachimura, Bruce Brown, Troy Brown, could all lead this draft to be even
deeper from a pure projected talent standpoint than the 2017.
Trade with Sixers:
Option (A) OKC sends 21st Pick + Doug McDermott for:
▪ Robert Covington (Wing) (Age 26)
▪ New York Knicks 2019 2nd round pick
Option (B) OKC sends 21st pick, Doug McDermott, and 2018 Second Round from Boston (33-55
protected) for:
▪ Robert Covington
▪ 2022 76ers 1st round pick (Unprotected)
▪ Jahil Okafor, (5) Age (21)
My trade value chart says that the 21st pick is worth 539 points. Moving to the 25 th pick with a point value of
466 (yet a higher STDEV) means the Thunder need to pick up more value, hence the extra second round picks.
As for Robert Covington, according to my ADJ/SY index ix Covington is one of the league’s best value players.
He’s also been a standout in ESPN.com’s real plus-minus several years in a row. Again, keeping with a defense
first theme Covington is long, rangy, and is the type of ball moving, position-less player (on the wing), whom is
consistently one of the most underrated players on the wing in the league, by my methods.
His shooting did dip a little last year, he shot only 32.9% on catch-and-shoot from three as opposed to 37.8%
the previous season, but I don’t think it is trend. He doesn’t need the ball, however, to be effective on offense
and his talents have been wasted on a struggling Sixers team in the midst of rebuild. What should also be
noted is that he switched his agent to Drew Morrison (CAA) (the same group that represents Paul George
subsequently) for greater leverage on his new deal this year.
Convington’s base salary of $1.57M is small enough that the Thunder could absorb it without having to send
much money out in return. Speculation would suggest that the Sixers would want shooting to surround Ben
8Simmons, Joel Embiid, and rookie Markel Fultz, meaning Alex Abrines or Doug McDermott would possibly be
of interest to them.
(Hindsight being 20/20, if somehow OKC could acquire Covington and the trade for George still went through
a lineup of; Adams-Patterson-George-Covington-Westbrook would be geometrically ideal on offense and
extremely versatile defensively.)
After that, I would suggest moving back again from 25 to 35. OKC is projected to lose their first-round pick in
2018 (Protected 1-14 to Minnesota). Therefore, trying to obtain a 2018 pick (and or a 2019 pick) would have
been my first priority all things being equal. The Memphis Grizzlies offers an interesting scenario; they owe
Boston a 1st round pick in 2019 (protected 1-8, and 1-6 protected in 2020, becoming unprotected in 2021).
They seem to be oscillating between trying to win now, and also hedging for a rebuild. Perhaps this would
make OKC natural trade partners.
Option (A) OKC Receives:
▪ 2018 1st round pick (Top 8 Protected) and pick swaps in 2021 (Top 2 Protected) if pick is not
conveyed 2022 (top1 protected) swap.
▪ 2019 2nd Round Pick to OKC.
Option (B) OKC Receives:
▪ Two Years after Pick is conveyed to BOSTON MEM sends OKC Unprotected pick
▪ 2021 2nd Round Pick to OKC.
Option C) OKC Receives:
▪ Jarrell Martin (4/5) (age 23)
▪ 2018 Top 12 Protected Pick
▪ 2023 Unprotected 1st Round Pick
With the projected salary being saved moving back, the Thunder could then use the unrealized cash to buy an
additional second round pick (last season the cost was roughly $2M for pick in the range of 40-50) that both
the analytic and scouting departments feel have the greatest variance in terms of future NBA potential. On my
board, the three players were, Ike Anigbogu (UCLA), Devin Robinson (FLA), and Dwyane Bacon (FSU). (*NOTE:
I didn’t have medicals for any players. These are simply the highest ranked players on my board.)
The Denver Nuggets roster is also one that is thick with promising young players. Currently, they seem to have
a bottleneck forming at the guard position. They most likely wouldn’t move a player like Gary Harris or Nikola
Jokic who project to be their franchise cornerstones. Simply from a development standpoint, giving enough
N.B.A. minutes for Will Barton, Emanuel Mudiay, Jamal Murray, and Malik Beasley may be challenging.
My preference of those players would be Jamal Murray because of his apparent higher basketball IQ, and
ready made jump shot. He shot an eFG% of 40% last season in pull-ups and 37.7% in catch-and-shoot
situations from 3. He also ranked 14th in PPP as the ball-handlerx in PnR according to NBA.com’s database.
That being said, Denver would most likely be hard pressed to part with him, leaving Malik Beasley as my
second preferred choice of Barton, Beasley, and Mudiay.
OKC Sends 21st Pick to Denver in exchange for either:
Option (A)
▪ Malik Beasley
▪ 2019 (Top 10) Protected Pick
Option (B)
▪ 2018 1st Round Pick (Protected 1-8, 25-30)
9▪ 2019 2nd Round Pick (VIA Washington) (Note: this trade yields the greats return in my value chart).
2017 Free Agency July 1 Thru September
Having acquired Paul George in a trade from Indiana and seeing the potential tax bill the Thunder would owe
this season and potentially next, I would try to take small steps to reduce the tax burden. Primarily by trades,
but also by declining Kyle Singler’s 2019 team option, waiving and stretching the deal. By waiving it prior to
September 1st we would be able to stretch the remaining $9.6 over five seasons. The table below shows the
payment structure.
Year Amount Left on Cap
2017-18 $1,932,500.00
2018-19 $1,932,500.00
2019-20 $1,932,500.00
2020-21 $1,932,500.00
2021-22 $1,932,500.00
Table 5 Singler’s Stretched Contract
The two UFAs I would have suggested OKC targeted, fitting with our strategy of defense and shooting to
surround Westbrook, would have been Justin Holiday, and George Hill. However, again, this is null-and-void
because the lack of room to sign free agents, yet I do think it demonstrates the direction I would suggest we
take the team.
Potential Low-cost Options at Guard with a little upside?
It is a contention of mine that basketball around the world is undergoing a revolution. Whether the N.B.A. is
beginning to mirror more of the Euro-ball (more ball movement, less ISO action, more of an emphasis on
shooting), or the Euro game, specifically at guard, has caught up to the American game, I’m not sure. But in
watching more Euro-league players like Brad Wanamaker (Fenerbahçe), Charles Jenkins (Khimki), Scottie
Wilbekin (Darussafaka), Khalif Wyatt (Hopel Holon), Retin Obasohan (Oettinger), Andrew Andrews
(Balıkesir), and DeAndre Kane (Maccabi Tel Aviv), along with Adam Hanga (Barca Lassa), I believe could all be
low(er) cost options as potential role players with some potential upside before they begin their decline, per
standard aging curves.xi
Considering this, I would have advised against the signing of Raymond Felton. Felton is represented by Jim
Tanner, who has some ties to the Thunder’s coaching staff, and while keeping up positive relations with a
power agent like Tanner, is never a bad idea, I would still have advised on bringing in a younger veteran with
some greater room for growth.
Trading for Undervalued Players
Due to the fact that the Thunder’s cap holds (specifically Taj Gibson’s) soaked up any potential real cap room,
OKC would have to improve their roster with either trades and MLE (mid level exemption), and after George
was acquired the TPMLE (Tax Payer Mid-Level).
A few younger trade targets like Kyle Anderson xii (SAS) whom (like Evan Turner) may be best as an off the
bench sixth-man type player or primary ball-handler in the second unit. Below is a table of the undervalued
list I would be monitoring. (Note: Most of these players are still on their rookie deals)
Undervalued Players to Monitor
Player Team Position Age
Justice Winslow MIA WING 21
10Mario Hezonja ORL WING 22
Stanley Johnson DET WING 21
Cheick Diallo NOLA BIG/5 20
Jahlil Okafor PHI 5 21
Bobby Portis CHI 5 22
Tobias Harris* DET 4 25
Evan Fournier* ORL 3 22
Table 6 Undervalued Players to Monitor
Riding It Out with Westbrook
As of today, Russell Westbrook has yet to sign his super max extension to stay in OKC beyond this season. Both
he and Paul George have 2018 Player Options that will most likely NOT be exercised by June 29th, 2018. There
will be a natural pull to explore trade options come March for fear that perhaps Westbrook could leave
without getting something tangible in return.
The reality is that his trade value may be limited for fear he will depart that team the following summer unless
it’s on his preferred list. This coupled with the fact the he has a 15% trade bonus, does add another wrinkle
depending on the acquiring team’s cap scenario. That would theoretically mean they would most likely have to
take back at least $22.8M in exchange. As we have seen though the modern N.B.A. assets aren’t simply
players. They can be draft picks, swap rights, and cap space. Sacrificing one asset (cap space) in order
to obtain assets that most likely won’t equal Westbrook, would be in my opinion be a miscalculation.
The course of action I would advise is one of patients. Be in constant contact with Thad Foucher (Westbrook’s
agent) at Wasserman and should Westbrook want to leave, try to push for either a sign-and-trade next
summer with picks as the center and one-year expiring contracts to make the contracts work, or to encourage
Westbrook to opt IN to his Player Option (a la Chris Paul this summer) and work a trade from there.
Russell Westbrook is a unique player not just because of the way he plays, but also the impact he has on the
Thunder as a whole. Below is a graph of Westbrook’s peers (Guards and wings, with USG > 29) and how their
team faired when they were OFF the court (per 100 Possessions).
(+/-) Off Court
10 8.1
8 6.8
6
3.2
4
2 0.1
0
-0.1
-2
-4
-3.8
-6
-8 -6.9
-8.2 -8.7
-10
Table 7 Highest USG Players OFF Court Per 100 Possessions
11As we can see, aside from the Cleveland Cavaliers, no team fell off as much as the Thunder when their
centerpiece left the floor. The point being, if Westbrook does leave, “replacing” him won’t be simple a turnkey
approach. Unlike in years past, if Westrbook leaves, the Thunder most likely will be thrust into a full-blown
rebuild, and again being burdened with longer-term contracts (2+ years > 15% of the projected cap) would
not be ideal.
Taking Carmelo’s Temperature
While this seems far fetched that Carmelo Anthony (33 years old) would waive his no-trade clause to end for
any team, aside from Houston, the Thunder do have the contract to put together a solid offer for Carmelo. If
you factor in Kanter’s contract the Thunder could aggregate Kanter’s ($17,884,176.00) along with Kyle
Singler’s ($4,666,500) deal, which would be able to absorb Carmelo’s $26,243,760 salary—if Carmelo or
Kanter won’t waive part (or all) of their trade bonuses it can still work, but gets a little more complicated.
The Knicks would almost certainly ask for Terrence Ferguson and while that’s a reasonable request, their
leverage in these discussions won’t be infallible. From their perspective they get another “BIG” to split time
with Willy Hermangomez (and Kristpas Porzingis) and could look to acquire at conditional second round pick
for Kyle O’Quinn.
Knicks Receive Thunder Receive
Enes Kanter (5) Carmelo Anthony
(4)
Kyle Singler (3) -
The Thunder would then have a starting lineup of Adams-Anthony-Roberson-George-Westbrook. My
concern is two-fold. A) The tax implications, naturally. B) Per 36 minutes, each of those players has averaged
over 18 FGA a game. Will the offense become stagnant because the ball doesn’t move? Or would the ball move
more because of the Olympic team type mentality? It also should be noted that the Knicks were worse (from
+/- perspective) with Anthony on the floor last season than they were with him on the bench (-5.4 vs. -2.5 per
100 possessions). It’s worth a conversation with Coach Donovan, Westbrook, and Paul George to hear their
thoughts, as well as call to Leon Rose to gauge Carmelo’s interest.
Strategy Objectives Moving Forward
A.) Quietly start planning a rebuild.
A few teams had interest in Terrence Ferguson going into the draft, namely; New York, Charlotte, and Indiana,
or so the rumor mill would suggest. On my board he ranked 17th. According to ESPN.com’s Analytic
department,xiii he was the 7th highest player in terms of All Star probability at 6.13%.
Still, I would advise that OKC casually consider using him as a decoy to lure teams into potential trade
scenarios for 2018 and future draft pick(s). My reasoning is that the new CBA puts a premium on drafting and
developing players. Larger cap holds for first round picks, designated player exemptions, and now the ability
to protect pick swaps all puts a premium on draft picks.
The Thunder will most likely lose their pick this season as mentioned prior. And do to the uncertainty of the
draft, I would try and stockpile picks to keep taking preverbal bites at the apple.
12According to my research and that of noted Economists Richard Thayler and Toby Moskowitz, found that
teams prefer picking in the current draft at a far higher rate. The interest teams can charge in terms of future
pick compensation can be astronomical. Here’s what I wrote from my findings last winter.
“Even with the growth of better analytic methods, future draft picks are still discounted. Here is a quick example;
in 2013 the New Orleans Pelicans traded the 6th pick in that draft (Nerlens Noel) and a mildly protected 2014 1st
round pick to Philadelphia for Jrue Holiday and Pierre Jackson (42nd overall…the Pelicans essentially gave up the
sixth pick and the 10th pick for Jrue Holiday.
…Still, Holiday for the 6th pick wasn’t the issue, it was surplus charge of the additional 1st round pick, which
made the trade one sided. That’s close to 81% interest; bookies don’t charge that much.”
One of the greatest financial minds, Benjamin Graham, wrote that many people think they are investing when
they are really speculating. Speculators think they know when a stock or asset is going to pop. From my
perspective, future draft picks are the better assets for the Thunder at this point. Playing the percentages that
OKC’s hit rate will increase with more picks (and some better luck) would be us playing the odds while others
are playing the market.
B.) Experiment with lineups and reducing the Tax Bill
Below is a potential breakdown of how I would suggest OKC parcel out minutes for the upcoming season. One
key difference you will see there is Jerami Grant at the 5 (and 4). Grant has never been a great rebounder, but
has shown the ability to be a defensive asset. While he wasn’t very good from +/- standpoint (-8.0) per 100
possessions NET, perhaps a year of full training camp in OKC will help. I’ve always believed using the first one
–third of the season to assess what you have, the next third discovering what you need, and the final third of
incorporating those needs into your game plan is important.
From a “basketball strategy” perspective, I would encourage coach Donovan to be as creative with his lineups
as possible. Especially early on in the year to see what precisely the Thunder’s ailments are heading into the
second half of the season. Below is a chart of how I would allocate minutes generally.
Table 8 OKC Lineup Projections
It would be foolish for me to suggest the Thunder trade a player, without having all the facts. But from a
pure financial standpoint, and defensively him being a liability, trying to move Enes Kanter would be a strong
recommendation. There aren’t a lot of teams with real cap space, and the ones that could renounce their way
into tangible space, most likely would want something in return (a prospect or draft compensation).
13Yet, Chicago may be a different story. Gar Forman and his group seem to be in the beginning stages of
reconstructing their roster. That leaves Robin Lopez (age 29), a primarily tough defensive big, but with solid
passing ability (1.8 AST/Per 36 min), and a solid free throw shooter (72.1%).
- Regular Season +/- per 100 2016 Playoffs +/- per 100
Robin Lopez 1.6 -8.0
From my perspective, this is a win-win for both teams. OKC gets a needed fit for their roster now, with a
player who is about to turn 30 years old, and with two years left on his deal (2yr. $28,146M remaining).
Essentially, Kanter is playing on 1+1 this season and next. He is 25 years old, and still a worth player for a
team like Chicago as they begin to take the franchise in a new direction. I know the Thunder rely on him for
easy baskets against second unit bigs and occasionally run the offense through him, but Lopez, in my opinion,
would be a better fit for this year specifically.
Kanter graded out “OK” last season finishing with 1.7 NET per 100 possessions (per NBA.com’s database).
He has the skill to play either the 5 (or 4) in some scenarios, but usually most of production has come against
second unit’s bigs. In the postseason his defensive, liabilities are much more obvious as seen below.
- Regular Season +/- Per 100 Playoffs +/- Per 100
Enes Kanter 1.7 -34.6
While their regular season stats aren’t terribly different from a +/- standpoint we must factor in the
contracts. The math for the trade is workable. Kanter’s (15% trade kicker) makes his incoming salary (to the
Bulls) $20.5M, which barley slides into Chicago’s available space especially if the renounce the remaining
about of Taj Gibson’s TPE.
From my perspective, Lopez would be a redundant big off the bench for OKC. Also, if Steven Adams is
struggling from the free throw line or is foul trouble, Lopez could be an option to close out games. But it’s also
the intangible elements that Lopez brings; namely, a hard-nosed, gritty toughness, which for a team trying to
win now, is always an added bonus. If the Thunder could manage to pry away Bobby Portis, Paul Zipser, or
even a conditional future pick, that would be an even bigger haul. And also from my standpoint, accomplish
two goals. Improving the team now, while also reducing our luxury tax payment incrementally.
Conclusion
I believe Oklahoma City (health permitted) can be a serious contender this year in the Western Conference. As
demonstrated above, they have significant competitive advantages when it comes to front office stability,
proven infrastructure, and a roster constructed—which by most prognostications have them as one of the five
best teams in the western conference.
Still, as I have described above, the Oklahoma City Thunder should continue to keep an eye towards the future.
The tools (from a market perspective) aren’t as substantial as the “big market” clubs, but that doesn’t mean
they are small in terms of revenue.
We also discussed some alternative trade and free agent signings, which I would have suggested both with
and without the hindsight of the Paul George trade. And finally, we discussed my proposed strategy moving
forward. Namely, by reducing our Luxury tax exposure (or going deeper by adding Carmelo Anthony), while
also trying to identify undervalued players whom fit targeted opportunities, and the ultimate strategic goal of
bring an N.B.A. Title to Oklahoma City.
14End Notes
i 2016 Offseason Review & Spending Trends, By David Jacober
https://www.dropbox.com/s/q7hxh9g667lo19e/2016%20Summer%20Spending%20%26%20Roster%20Co
nstruction.pdf?dl=0
ii Herd instinct is a mentality characterized by a lack of individual decision-making or thoughtfulness, causing
people to think and act in the same way as the majority of those around them.
iii https://www.forbes.com/teams/oklahoma-city-thunder/
iv Per the C.B.A’s Stretch Provision: If a team waives a player between July 1 and August 31, it can stretch the
cap hit for that player’s remaining salary over twice the number of years remaining on his contract, plus one.
v https://www.lyonspr.com/latest-nielsen-dma-rankings/
vi https://www.vividseats.com/blog/nba-ticket-prices
vii https://www.forbes.com/nba-valuations/list/#tab:overall
viiihttps://www.dropbox.com/s/llw0w2ei1ffpp3a/The%20Inefficiency%20of%20the%20draft.pdf?dl=0
ixhttps://www.dropbox.com/s/9rk35q748br2yyv/Midseason%20SY%20update.pdf?dl=0
xhttp://stats.nba.com/players/ballhandler/#!?CF=PossG*GE*2.0:Time*GE*25:GP*GE*75:Time*LE*50&sort=P
PP&dir=1
xi http://www.basketballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=399
xiihttps://www.dropbox.com/s/6h15jl9bwf7ybsu/2224%20Undervalued%20Assets.pdf?dl=0
xiiihttp://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/19681478/most-likely-all-stars-starters-role-players-top-2017-nba-
draft
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