Changing Flexibility Requirements & New Resourcs - DOE Solar Energy Technology Office Summit, Oakland
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Changing Flexibility Requirements & New Resourcs DOE Solar Energy Technology Office Summit, Oakland Logan Goldie-Scot March 18, 2019
The problem 1 March 18, 2019 @LoganGoldieScot
Net load profiles are becoming steeper
in many markets
California Australia
GW GW
40 2.0
2011 2011
30 2012 1.5 2012
2013 2013
20 2014 1.0 2014
2015 2015
10 2016 0.5 2016
2017 2017
0 0.0
00:00
02:00
04:00
06:00
08:00
10:00
12:00
14:00
16:00
18:00
20:00
22:00
00:00
02:00
04:00
06:00
08:00
10:00
12:00
14:00
16:00
18:00
20:00
22:00
Source: BloombergNEF Source: BloombergNEF
2 March 18, 2019 @LoganGoldieScotThe frequency of annual negative power
occurrences is increasing in many
markets
9%
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Source: BloombergNEF
3 March 18, 2019 @LoganGoldieScotPower price profiles are becoming more
extreme
United Kingdom California South Australia
Pound/MWh $/MWh A$/MWh
80 80 250
2016 2017
2010-14 range 200 2017
60 60
2010-14
2017 150
40 40 range 2016
100
2015 2015 2016
20 20 50
2015 2010-14
0 0 0
12:00
18:00
23:00
12:00
18:00
23:00
0:00
6:00
0:00
6:00
0:00
6:00
12:00
18:00
23:00
4 March 18, 2019 @LoganGoldieScotA plant’s viability may depend on a small
number of high priced hours
Power prices frequency distribution, 2017
2.0%
1.5%
South Australia’s power prices show
1.0%
a wide, flat distribution. The U.K.’s
prices are least volatile.
0.5%
0.0%
-800 -50 700 1,450 2,200 2,950 3,700 4,450
U.K. Germany California South Australia Power prices
Source: BloombergNEF
5 March 18, 2019 @LoganGoldieScotDepending on resource concentration,
the impact can be dramatic
California realized power prices
Premium or discount to around-the-clock average
40%
30%
20%
10% Solar
0% Gas
-10% Wind
-20% ATC
-30%
-40%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1Q 2018
Source: BloombergNEF Note: Realized power prices are production-weighted power prices, based on the pairing of hourly price and production
profiles
6 March 18, 2019 @LoganGoldieScotPreferred flexible resources 7 March 18, 2019 @LoganGoldieScot
PV-plus-storage is already competitive in
the U.S. against CCGTs
Estimated levelized cost of energy for U.S. Southwest projects
Source: BloombergNEF Note: This assumes a four hour battery at 25% of PV power output.
8 March 18, 2019 @LoganGoldieScotThe pipeline for PV-plus-storage projects
in the U.S. is growing
Power output (MW) Energy Capacity (MWh)
MW MWh
Arizona 985 Hawaii 1,405
California 943 Arizona 1,270
Hawaii 415 Colorado 1,100
Nevada 300 California 581
Colorado 277 Nevada 400
Florida 54 Texas 67
Texas 28 Minnesota 30
Minnesota 15 Puerto Rico 30
Massachusetts 10 Massachusetts 17
Pennsylvania 9 Florida 16
Source: BloombergNEF. Note: based only on disclosed capacity, some projects may not have MW, MWh disclosed. Arizona MWh estimated 1:1 ratio
with MW for 2019 850 MW announcement
9 March 18, 2019 @LoganGoldieScotThe near term outlook for battery
storage looks promising
MW
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000 RoW
EMEA
6,000 AMER
APAC
4,000
2,000
0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
10 March 18, 2019 @LoganGoldieScotWhereas natural gas utilization will begin
to fall
Capacity factors in California
40%
35%
30%
25%
Solar
20% Wind
Gas
15%
10%
5%
0%
2017 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Source: BloombergNEF Note: Exercise run before SB 100 was passed.
11 March 18, 2019 @LoganGoldieScotWhat next? 12 March 18, 2019 @LoganGoldieScot
A lowest cost build model results in
significant clean energy additions but
limited retirements
GW Other flexible capacity
Solar thermal
20 Small-scale PV
Utility-scale PV
15 Biomass
Offshore wind
10 Onshore wind
Battery
Geothermal
5 Hydro
Nuclear
0 Other
Oil
-5 Peaker Gas
Gas
Coal
-10
2018 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Source: BloombergNEF
13 March 18, 2019 @LoganGoldieScotA two degrees scenario results in greater
clean energy build and significant fossil
fuel retirements
GW Other flexible capacity
20 Solar thermal
Small-scale PV
Utility-scale PV
15 Biomass
Offshore wind
10 Onshore wind
Battery
5 Geothermal
Hydro
Nuclear
0 Other
Oil
-5 Peaker Gas
Gas
Coal
-10
2018 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Source: BloombergNEF
14 March 18, 2019 @LoganGoldieScotWhat role with solar thermal play? Source: Bloomberg 15 March 18, 2019 @LoganGoldieScot
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