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www.policymagazine.ca January — February 2022
Canadian Politics and Public Policy
Climate Change
&
Clean Energy
$7.95 Volume 10 – Issue 1
Reimagining a sustainable future Tackling climate change presents a big challenge and an even greater opportunity for Canada, one that will impact all of our lives, and those of generations to come. Our nation’s plan to drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions down to ‘net-zero’ by 2050 requires the largest change to our economy in our lifetime, and one that RBC is fully committed to supporting. To reimagine our economy in ways that balance the needs of all regions and citizens, Canada’s path to net-zero requires significant innovation and capital to succeed. How we get there is just as important as the destination itself. Traditional energy sources are important to support our daily lives as we change what energy we consume and how it is produced, and contain the terrible effects climate change is causing to our planet and communities. Canadian jobs and prosperity need to be preserved and enhanced while we build a more sustainable economy. Getting this transition right will not be easy, but we must move forward together with a sense of urgency and thoughtful action. RBC is committed to playing our part, and it goes well beyond advancing net-zero leadership in our own operations, where we will reduce emissions by 70% by 2025. We will engage through our people and capabilities in every sector and community to enable the transition in three key ways: Help clients as they transition to net-zero We have committed $500 billion in sustainable financing by 2025 and are well on our way to meeting this commitment. Through a wide range of products, services and advice, we will continue to help businesses and individuals across all sectors and regions establish and accelerate their climate plans, achieve their goals and adapt to net-zero. Hold ourselves accountable We will monitor, measure and report on our clients’ efforts towards net-zero emissions. In early 2022, we will publicly share data on emissions produced by our clients that are associated with a large proportion of the loans and financial services we provide, sometimes referred to as “financed emissions”. At the same time, we will set interim goals in support of achieving net-zero by 2050. This includes working with our clients in emitting sectors, whose innovation and reduction strategies are critical to reaching Canada’s emissions targets. Actively partner, inform and inspire Canada’s sustainable future We will help promote climate literacy and offer ideas that support a successful transition. Our latest report, “Canada’s Road to Net-Zero”, presents six pathways for changing how we live, travel, grow and power our lives – in ways that don’t leave jobs, communities and businesses behind. And we will continue to fund, partner with, listen to, and bring together communities. This includes Indigenous leadership, technology experts, and public and private sectors to discover and innovate new climate solutions where it matters most. Looking forward, Canada’s drive to net-zero will strengthen existing industries and create new sustainable ones. Ownership in sustainable projects as well as broader actions to achieve net-zero will create meaningful pathways for reconciliation with Indigenous peoples. And we will provide our children with a healthier world in which to thrive and prosper. Our economy will be cleaner, our nation stronger and our planet healthier. Working together, we can do this. This is Canada’s most ambitious path, and we will be there every step of the way. Visit www.rbc.com/climate to learn more about our climate commitments and actions.
In This Issue
4 Politics
Canadian From the Editor / L. Ian MacDonald
Climate Change & Clean Energy
and Public Kevin
Policy
5 Page with Alexandra Ducharme
Preparing the Fiscal Planet for a Net Zero Economy
Canadian Politics and
Public Policy 8 Dan Woynillowicz
A Prescription for Climate Progress: Stubborn Optimism,
EDITOR AND PUBLISHER
L. Ian MacDonald
and More Stubborn Commitment
lianmacdonald@gmail.com
ASSOCIATE EDITOR
12 Kevin Lynch and Paul Deegan
Toward a Cleaner, Greener Future
Lisa Van Dusen
lvandusen@policymagazine.ca 15 Jeremy Kinsman
The Verdict on COP26: Keeping Hope Alive
CONTRIBUTING WRITERS
Thomas S. Axworthy,
Andrew Balfour, Yaroslav Baran, 18 Robin V. Sears
The Accelerated Evolution of Climate Change Politics
James Baxter, Daniel Béland,
Derek H. Burney, Catherine Cano,
Stéphanie Chouinard, Margaret Clarke,
22 Velma McColl
Climate Policy Post-COP26: Finally Catching Up with the Future
Rachel Curran, Paul Deegan,
John Delacourt, Susan Delacourt,
Graham Fraser, Dan Gagnier,
25 Elizabeth May
Patching the Leaky Boat of the COP Process
Helaina Gaspard, Martin Goldfarb,
Sarah Goldfeder, Patrick Gossage,
Frank Graves, Jeremy Kinsman, Clean Energy Solutions
Shachi Kurl, Philippe Lagassé,
Brad Lavigne, Jeremy Leonard,
Kevin Lynch, Leslie MacKinnon,
28 John Stackhouse
Canada’s Road to Net Zero--A $2 Trillion Clean Energy Transition
Peter Mansbridge, Carissima Mathen,
Elizabeth May, Velma McColl, 32 Lee Richardson
How Alberta is Doing its Part on Climate Change and the New Economy
Elizabeth McIninch, David McLaughlin,
David Mitchell, Don Newman,
Geoff Norquay, Fen Osler-Hampson, 35 John Delacourt
Navigating the Politics of Crisis: Engaging with Government in
Kevin Page, André Pratte,
Lee Richardson, Colin Robertson, Extraordinary Times
Robin V. Sears, Vianne Timmons,
Brian Topp, Lori Turnbull, Jaime Watt, 37 John Gorman
A Path to Net Zero with Nuclear in the Mix
Anthony Wilson-Smith,
Dan Woynillowicz
WEB DESIGN
40 Derek Nighbor and Kate Lindsay
Seeing the Forest for the Trees: Forestry Solutions for Canada’s
Nicolas Landry Climate Targets
policy@nicolaslandry.ca
SOCIAL MEDIA EDITOR
Grace MacDonald Book Reviews
gmacdonald@policymagazine.ca
GRAPHIC DESIGN AND PRODUCTION
45 Review by Anthony Wilson-Smith
Denial
Benoit Deneault By Beverley McLachlin
DESIGN CONSULTANT
Monica Thomas 47 Review by Charlie Angus
The Lyrics: 1956 to the Present
Policy By Paul McCartney
Policy is published six times annually
by LPAC Ltd. The contents are 49 Review by Colin Robertson
The Two Michaels: Innocent Canadian Captives and High Stakes
copyrighted, but may be reproduced
with permission and attribution in Espionage in the US-China Cyber War
print, and viewed free of charge at the By Mike Blanchard and Fen Osler Hampson
Policy home page at policymagazine.ca.
Price: $7.95 per issue 50 Review by Paul Deegan
Inexact Science: The Six Most Compelling Draft Years in NHL History
Annual Subscription: $45.95
PRINTED AND DISTRIBUTED BY
By Evan Dowbiggin and Bruce Dowbiggin
St. Joseph Communications,
1165 Kenaston Street, 51 Column / Don Newman
Ottawa’s New Pastime: Leadership Speculation
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Available in Air Canada Maple Leaf Special Thanks to our Sponsors: RBC, Forest Products Association of Canada,
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Canada’s forests have a critical role to play in our collective fight against climate change. But how we manage them matters. Sustainable forest management and harvested wood products work together to capture and store carbon. Now is the time for Canada to leverage the power of sustainable forest management as a nature-based climate solution to deliver on our international commitments, grow our forest-based economy, and help our forests adapt to a changing climate. Learn more: forestryforthefuture.ca
4
From the Editor / L. Ian MacDonald
Climate Change
& Clean Energy
W
elcome to our special issue, hasten the private sector’s adjustment”. policy environment.Canadian Nucle-
Climate Change & Clean For our lead foreign affairs writer Jere- ar Association President John Gorman
Energy, a timely update and my Kinsman, Glasgow was an import- attended COP and concludes: “Gov-
look ahead following COP26. If there’s ant wakeup call to the world. “It’s the ernments around the world must look
one thing delegates and observers ultimate stress test,” he writes, “of the beyond election cycles to the 30-year
from nearly 200 countries agreed on at abilities of the world’s nations and peo- imperative of net zero.”
Glasgow, it was that global warming is ples to work together in our collective Derek Nighbor and Kate Lindsay of
no longer a hypothetical conversation defence and existential interest.” Rob- the Forest Products Association of
about dire developments in the future. in Sears writes of the politics of climate Canada, note that Canada, with only
Climate change is occurring in the change in Canada, at both the federal 0.5 percent of global population, is
here and now, and the question is how and provincial levels. In coming elec- home to 9 percent of the world’s for-
the world achieves “net zero” to miti- tions, he predicts “the victors will be ests. And forests absorb 2.6 billion
gate the consequences for humanity, those who have delivered believable vi- tonnes of CO2 per year, one-third
in economic and social terms, to say sions of a sustainable Canada.” of all released annually from fossils
nothing of the costs of recovery. Velma McColl was at COP and writes fuels.
I
First, we present analyses of the issues, that, “we began to see the silhouette of n Book Reviews, we’re delighted to
from the urgency of climate change in collective leadership that would imple- offer a variety of must-reads.
global terms to some of the specifics such ment a shift toward the future.” Eliza-
First, Anthony Wilson-Smith weighs
as the firestorms and floods that have beth May was also in Glasgow, the 12th
in with a positive appraisal of former
devastated British Columbia and oth- COP conference she’s attended since the
Chief Justice Beverley McLachlin’s new
er regions of Canada. Then, on to clean first one in Berlin in 1995. But the for-
novel, Denial, in a courthouse setting.
energy, from renewables to innovations mer Green leader also served in the Mul-
and technology upgrades, and the posi- roney government’s environment min- Then NDP rock critic Charlie Angus
tive involvement of Canadian corporate, istry at a time when Canada played a offers a compelling review of The Lyr-
industrial and financial leaders. leading role, “from acid rain to the ozone ics, Paul McCartney’s account of how
layer, from the Montreal Protocol in the Beatles got their start and why, all
One effect of climate change, forget
1987 to the Rio Summit in 1992,” where these years later, they’re still the best,
about the FISC as we’ve known it, ad-
Canada was an early advocate of sustain- “fresh and ageless”.
vises Kevin Page, President of the In-
stitute for Fiscal Studies and Democ- able development. The time for Canadi- Colin Robertson looks at Chinese
racy at University of Ottawa. Page and an leadership is back, she concludes. hostage diplomacy in The Two Mi-
O
economics student Alexandra Ducha- n a solutions agenda, RBC Se- chaels, an important analysis by Mike
rme offer a sense, as he says, “of what nior VP John Stackhouse writes Blanchfield and Fen Osler Hampson
the fiscal planning framework might that “we need a new playbook, of the three years Canadians Michael
look like in a net zero economy.” for finance, policy and regulation.” Kovrig and Michael Spavor spent im-
prisoned by the Beijing dictatorship.
Climate change consultant Dan Former Calgary MP Lee Richard-
Woynillowicz notes “the ‘new normal’ son, who previously was chief of And Habs fan Paul Deegan consid-
is that there is no normal anymore.” staff to the legendary Premier Peter ers Inexact Science, by the father-son
But he remains one of the “stubborn Lougheed, sees Alberta playing a pos- team of Evan and Bruce Dowbiggin,
optimists” that Canada can make sig- itive role in the transition to a green on how NHL general managers trade
nificant progress on meeting its new energy economy. He writes: “Alberta for draft picks.
goals of emission reductions. may be Canada’s largest generator of Finally, columnist Don Newman
As former Privy Council Clerk Kevin carbon emissions, but it may also be looks at the first weeks of the new
Lynch and onetime White House aide a key to Canada’s net zero solution.” Parliament, and writes that a minori-
Paul Deegan observe, “governments John Delacourt offers some thoughts ty House raises the possibility of suc-
will need to provide the incentives and on government and business engaging cession in the leadership of both the
supportive regulatory environment to effectively in a post-Glasgow public Liberal and Conservative parties.
Policy
5
Preparing the Fiscal Planet
for a Net Zero Economy
The economic challenges of meeting the climate change Agreement greenhouse gas emissions
targets into legislative objectives and
commitments of the Paris Agreement and COP26 will climate policies. These commitments
require the greatest adjustment to our existing fiscal and a vision for a new growth agen-
da increase certainty for investment.
regimes in decades. That required shift in both spending
Step two: private finance helps busi-
and global accountability has already prompted action nesses realign its business models for
at the international level. Kevin Page and Alexandra a net zero economy. Step three: public
and private sectors work together and
Ducharme of the Institute of Fiscal Studies and Democracy adjust plans as needed to smooth ad-
look at how Canada should respond. justment and minimize costs.
The scale and timelines of change as-
sociated with the new climate targets
Kevin Page with In military parlance, this is the equiva- in Canada are ambitious:
lent of a full-frontal attack. Can we im-
Alexandra Ducharme plement? Can we transform the way
• A reduction in GHG emissions
by 40 to 45 percent by 2030 from
Do we have fiscal planning frame- political and business leaders make de-
2005 levels. GHG emissions re-
work in Canada in place to credibly cisions and the way we live our lives
mained relatively flat from 2000
support the economic transformation given the scale and timelines of glob-
to 2020. The pain of adjustment
consistent with the government’s al warming as projected by scientists at
lies in front of us (Chart 1);
2030 and 2050 greenhouse gas emis- the United Nations (UN) International
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)? • GHG emissions are heavily em-
sions (GHG) targets?
bedded in current infrastructure
No. The global strategy is simple and po-
of most economic sectors – trans-
tentially powerful. As articulated by
Canada, like other advanced coun- Mark Carney, UN Special Envoy for portation, oil and gas, electricity,
tries, will need to re-think how it Climate Action and Finance, we need heavy industry, buildings, agri-
plans, allocates and reports on the to create a “virtuous circle of inno- culture, and waste. We do not
use of taxpayer resources in order to vation and investment”. Step one: have a pan-Canadian infrastruc-
effectively de-carbonize our energy countries turn Paris Climate Change ture needs assessment;
systems and economy. • A complete re-balancing of our
The process of changing the way energy sector from non-renew-
The global
budgets look and operate is under- able to renewable supply is re-
way with the help of internation-
consortium of quired. Energy’s nominal GDP
al leadership from the Paris-based independent think contribution is about $200 bil-
Organisation for Economic Co-op- tanks that produces the lion a year. It employs about
eration and Development (OECD). Climate Change Tracker 300,000 people directly and
The budgetary work to address 550,000 thousand people indi-
climate change is being comple-
rates Canadian plans and rectly. Canada’s primary ener-
mented by efforts from interna- efforts as “highly gy production represents about
tional accounting standard boards insufficient”. While the four percent of global supply
on sustainability, from central domestic targets are rated (more than 35,000 petajoules).
banks on modeling economic im- Renewable energy sources (hy-
as average, we score low on
pacts, from financial oversight dro, bioenergy, wind, solar,
organizations on risk exposure, domestic policies and geothermal, oceans) account
and from private sector initia- actions and international for just under 20 percent of en-
tives to promote corporate social climate finance support. ergy supply. We need to plan
responsibility. for an 80-20 reversal;
January—February 2022
6
Canada does not have a good track commitments were made in the The global consortium of indepen-
record when it comes to taking cred- 2021 election campaign. These re- dent think tanks that produces the
ible and sufficient measures to ad- sources are spread across all key Climate Change Tracker rates Canadi-
dress climate change. sectors. There are monies to en- an plans and efforts as “highly insuf-
In recent years, Canada has intro- courage innovation in clean tech- ficient”. While the domestic targets
duced wide ranging policies to ad- nologies (e.g., Net Zero Accelerator are rated as average, we score low on
dress climate change. Legislation Fund). There are numerous regula- domestic policies and actions and in-
was passed in 2021, the Canadian tory measures (e.g. Federal Green- ternational climate finance support.
A
Net Zero Emissions Accountability house Gas Offset System, Clean fter spending some $300 bil-
Act, that enshrines a net zero GHG Fuel Standards). lion on direct fiscal sup-
N
emissions target into law. Manda- otwithstanding significant ports and a similar additional
tory carbon pricing has been in ef- efforts, nobody really thinks amount allocated in liquidity mea-
fect across the country since 2019. we have done enough to put sures to address a global health crisis
The carbon price is planned to rise our economy on track to decarbon- in Canada over a few years, the scale
significantly ($15 per tonne per ize and achieve the 2030 and 2050 of the effort required to address cli-
year) from $65 in 2023 to $170 in targets. Even with better price sig- mate change remains largely un-cost-
2030. nals and regulations, a $100 billion ed. Analysis by the Canadian Insti-
According to its 2020 plan, A dollar commitment over a decade tute for Climate Change Choices (Tip
Healthy Environment and a Healthy to address mitigation and adap- of the Iceberg, 2020) indicates the av-
Economy, “the Government of Can- tion is not going to be enough in erage cost of a weather-related disas-
ada has invested over $100 billion a high-carbon per capita economy ter has gone up more than 1000-fold
toward climate action and clean with a GDP approaching $2.5 tril- since the 1970s. Annual econom-
growth since 2015, with roughly lion a year and an energy sector (80 ic costs have gone from millions to
$60 billion from 2015 to 2019 and percent dependent on non-renew- billions of dollars. The trend line is
$54 billion towards Canada’s green ables) that generates $200 billion well- established. The direction is up
recovery since October 2020.” More per year. and steep.
CHART 1: Historical GHG Emissions and Emissions needed to reach COP26 goals
45% target 40% target
800
600
400
200
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
20 9
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
30
9
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Source: Government of Canada
Policy
7
It is in this context that the OECD
Climate policy must inform fiscal planning.
has started working with member
countries to better incorporate cli- Economic and fiscal planning outlooks need
mate policy into the budget process to be extended to deal with the longer-term horizons
and reporting. of climate impacts. Climate change impacts need
According to Robert Marleau and to be embedded in baseline and scenario
Camille Montpetit, two Canadi- projections.
an experts on parliamentary proce-
dure and practice, budgets are first
and foremost “a comprehensive as-
sessment of the financial standing
of the government and an overview Joe Biden has recently announced a Climate policy must inform fiscal
of the nation’s economic condi- net zero federal government target planning. Economic and fiscal plan-
tion.” In a world facing impending for 2050 with interim goals for spe- ning outlooks need to be extended
dangers from climate change and a cific sectors (including buildings to deal with the longer-term hori-
global economy struggling to adapt, and vehicles). zons of climate impacts. Climate
a nation’s economic condition is change impacts need to be embed-
The Liberal 2021 party platform
tied to the environment. Financial ded in baseline and scenario pro-
highlighted the need for federal
standing includes both fiscal and spending reviews. Budget 2021 high- jections. Independent fiscal institu-
environmental sustainability and lighted a commitment to a nation- tions in the US (the Congressional
resilience. al infrastructure needs assessment. Budget Office) and EU are making
T
he OECD green budgeting The government should move for- these adjustments. Canada should
framework has four building ward with these initiatives in 2022. follow suit.
blocks. Green budgeting should complement
the work of the government on gen- Green budget statements should
One, a strategic framework: make it easy for provinces and ter-
der budgeting.
The Global Commission on Climate ritories, cities, First Nations, and
Three, accountability and
and Economy has made the case the private sector to know how bud-
transparency:
that we need a new growth agenda gets are evolving and their impacts
for a climate economy that focuses Effective scrutiny both before au- on climate objectives from their
on the interaction between technol- thorities are provided by Parliament perspectives.
ogy innovation, sustainable infra- and after the money is spent through
evaluation and audit are necessary for Annual meetings of the Council of
structure and resource productivi-
ty. Canada does not have a growth good fiscal management of taxpayer the Federation (premiers, territorial
strategy. Canadian economists and dollars. The OECD recommends the leaders and others) should include
former senior Finance Canada civ- use of a Green Budgeting statement a standing agenda item on climate
il servants such as David Dodge and to inform Parliamentarians, stake- policy, mitigation and adaption
Don Drummond have called for an holders and citizens how fiscal pol- progress.
investment orientated growth strat- icy is being used to support climate
The Chinese proverb says that a jour-
egy – missing from all party plat- objectives.
ney of a thousand miles begins with
forms in the 2021 federal election The Liberal government has pro- a single step. Canada has taken sev-
campaign. posed the establishment of a net zero eral steps to strengthen its climate
Two, evidence generation and policy advisory committee to provide ad- policy. Putting those commitments
coherence: vice on pathways to achieve net zero. into action through its fiscal plan-
Consideration should be given to es-
Current public finance manage- ning framework would be a leap for-
tablishing an independent body re-
ment frameworks need to system- ward.
porting to Parliament on the effica-
atically incorporate information cy of policies and progress towards Contributing writer Kevin Page is Pres-
on environmental and/or climate emissions targets. ident and CEO of the Institute of Fis-
impacts. This includes green bud- cal Studies and Democracy at the Uni-
get tagging where all new measures Four, budgetary governance:
versity of Ottawa. He was previously
are assessed from an environmen- A fiscal planning framework for
Canada’s first Parliamentary Budget
tal perspective. France and Ireland green budgeting needs to include di-
Officer.
have started this practice. Spending rect links between strategy and bud-
reviews should be conducted from get plans, department spending, Alexandra Ducharme is a fourth-year
a climate goal and efficiency/effec- performance reporting and citizen economics undergraduate student at the
tiveness perspective. US President engagement. University of Ottawa.
January—February 2022
8
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau with US President Joe Biden and British PM Boris Johnson, host of COP26. “The science is clear,” Trudeau told the
Leaders’ Summit in Glasgow. “We must do more, and faster.” --Adam Scotti photo
A Prescription for Climate
Progress: Stubborn Optimism,
and More Stubborn Commitment
Between criticism from the left that the Trudeau government remind us that this would imply a new
and static stability that simply doesn’t
is doing too little on climate change and criticism from the exist. If anything, the “new normal” is
right that it is doing too much, it can be hard to discern that there is no normal anymore. The
amount of carbon pollution we have
precisely what it has done and where climate policy expert
and continue to pump into the atmo-
Dan Woynillowicz provides a briefing. sphere is changing our climate and the
weather systems it fuels.
This isn’t to suggest that efforts to cut
Dan Woynillowicz wildfires and flooding, and felt the
sense of helplessness shared by most carbon pollution and take climate ac-
H
eat domes. Atmospheric riv- British Columbians as the toll in lives tion are futile. To the contrary, it simply
ers. In 2021, my vocabulary reinforces the imperative to strengthen
and livelihoods ticked upwards with
expanded in ways I hadn’t and accelerate efforts. As Prime Minis-
each disaster.
anticipated. Living in British Colum- ter Justin Trudeau noted in his speech
bia, I witnessed the cascading im- While some commentators character- at the COP26 climate change negotia-
pacts to services and supply chains ize these catastrophic weather events tions in Glasgow, “The science is clear:
that accompanied the heatwaves, as our “new normal,” climate scientists we must do more, and faster.”
Policy9
To Canada’s and the Prime Minis- al election and COP26, the govern-
The “new normal”
ter’s credit, these words aren’t simply ment exercised its right to a 90-day
good intentions, but are backed up by is that there is no extension and so will deliver it by the
a track record of effort, accompanied normal anymore. The end of March. The plan will not only
by clear and specific commitments to amount of carbon pollution incorporate all the policies and pro-
do more. To some, this might seem grams described above, it will also in-
we have and continue to
a controversial statement. You don’t clude the big promises made in the
have to look far to find criticism of pump into the atmosphere Liberals’ 2021 election platform:
the Canadian government’s climate ischanging our climate and
• Mandating the sale of zero-emis-
efforts – that it has been too slow, too the weather systems it fuels. sion vehicles so that 100 percent
weak, and simply hasn’t reduced na-
of new light-duty vehicles (cars,
tional carbon pollution (at least not
pickups, etc.) sold in Canada are
yet). As leaders of the NDP and Green
Y
et despite all this effort, car- zero emission by 2035 and at
Party trumpeted in last fall’s elec-
bon pollution isn’t yet falling least 50 percent by 2030;
tion, the Trudeau Liberals were more
about pretty words than real action. in Canada. What gives? • Developing emissions standards
But as Charles Dickens wrote in Great Regrettably, what the federal govern- for heavy-duty vehicles that are
Expectations, “Take nothing on its ment does (or doesn’t do) is not the aligned with the most ambitious
looks; take everything on evidence. sole determinant of emissions in our standards in North America,
There’s no better rule.” In this spirit, federation. It’s a shared responsibility and requiring that 100 percent
a brief recap is in order: with provinces, and during the Lib- of selected categories of medi-
erals’ tenure, the provinces that con- um- and heavy-duty vehicles be
Following their 2015 election win, zero emission by 2040;
the Liberals brought Canada into the tribute the most pollution — Alberta
Paris Agreement and drew provinces and Ontario — both saw changes in • Capping emissions from the oil
together behind the Pan-Canadian government that led to a rollback of and gas sector at current levels
Framework on Clean Growth and Cli- provincial climate efforts and a delib- and requiring that they decline
mate Change. They introduced a na- erate effort to stymie federal efforts. at the pace and scale needed to
tional price on carbon pollution, de- But equally significant is the reality that get to net zero by 2050;
fended it up to the Supreme Court policies, programs, and regulations take • Developing a plan to reduce
of Canada, and have committed to time to design and, when implement- methane emissions across the
a schedule of increases out to 2030. ed, don’t create change overnight — broader Canadian economy in
They have secured a phase-out of coal- there is an unavoidable lag. But consult support of the Global Methane
fired power at home and championed experts, and they’ll tell you that the Pledge and the goals in Canada’s
the Powering Past Coal Alliance in- policies now being advanced will begin climate plan, reducing oil and
ternationally, advanced a Clean Fuel to reduce pollution in short order, and gas methane emissions by at
Standard to clean up fuel for gas vehi- those reductions will grow and acceler- least 75 percent below 2012 lev-
cles, and made major strides to enable ate as they take hold. els by 2030 through an approach
more Canadians to ditch their gas ve- that includes regulations, as well
hicles, buy electric replacements and Fortunately, we don’t just have to go
on faith and expert analysis. The pas- as regulating methane landfill
keep them charged. emissions and reducing agricul-
sage of the Canadian Net zero Emis-
Their 2019 election platform prom- sions Accountability Act will provide tural methane emissions; and
ised even more, and they delivered. Canadians with more clarity than • Transitioning to a net zero emit-
The Healthy Environment, Healthy we’ve ever had about what efforts the ting electricity grid by 2035.
Economy climate plan released in late
W
government is making, and of the
2020, and supported by new invest- hile many of these com-
expected results from those efforts. mitments include targets
ments in the 2021 budget, put Can-
While most public and media atten- that extend beyond 2030,
ada on track to achieve a 36 percent
tion to this legislation focused on its the plan is required to include pro-
reduction below 2005 levels by 2030
targets, its real value is in the obliga- jections of the annual greenhouse gas
(beating the original Paris target of 30
tion it creates for the government to emission reductions resulting from
percent). They could have coasted but
establish and publish detailed plans, those combined measures and strate-
understood more action is both need-
and to prepare progress reports for gies—including projections for each
ed and expected of Canada. So, in
milestone years, with the first report economic sector. For the first time,
keeping with the Paris Agreement re-
due by no later than the end of 2023. there will be clear and quantitative
quirement to review and increase am-
bition on a five-year cycle, they filed a The first of these plans was intend- transparency around the scale and
new target of a 40 to 45 percent pollu- ed to be due by the end of 2021 but timing of emission reductions, which
tion reduction by 2030. considering the timing of the feder- Canadians can use to both hold the
January—February 202210
government accountable and to eval-
uate its progress. By the next election,
whenever it may be, we should be able
to see how big the gap is between am-
bition and action, words and results.
Finally, three decades after Canada rat-
ified the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change (1992)
and two decades after Canada ratified
its first emission reduction commit-
ment in the Kyoto Protocol (2002), we
are beginning to get the institution-
al and administrative pieces in place
to track federal climate action efforts.
And I say “beginning” because the job
isn’t yet complete. As helpful as the
Net Zero Emissions Accountability Act
is in establishing plans and tracking
performance against them, it doesn’t
explicitly require or drive the chang-
es in governance—both the form and
function of government—needed to
Prime Minister Trudeau with new Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault at COP26, “a strong signal,”
execute these plans.
writes Dan Woynillowicz, that Ottawa is serious about action on climate change.--Adam Scotti photo
But on this front, there are some signs
of progress nonetheless, from the es-
tablishment of a Cabinet Committee nective tissue between these minis- and the Canadian Institute for Climate
on Economy, Inclusion and Climate tries that holds interesting potential Choices, Greater than the sum of its
to a focus on climate action in the parts: How a whole-of-government ap-
for better political integration.
mandate letters of all ministers, in- proach to climate change can improve
cluding specific deliverables for some. Meanwhile, in the public service, the
Canada’s climate performance, quite
Similarly, climate change is increas- government has established a climate
rightly notes that achieving Canada’s
ingly being considered in everything secretariat within the Privy Council
climate targets “will require the active
from government procurement to Office (PCO), though its mandate
involvement of departments as dispa-
policy development, and the Healthy and influence aren’t yet clear. Opti-
rate as Finance, Infrastructure, Trans-
Environment, Healthy Economy plan mally, it should have a focus on pol-
port, Natural Resources, Environment
pledged to “Apply a climate lens to inte- icy integration and efficiency, with
and Climate Change, Agriculture and
grate climate considerations through- responsibility for navigating com- Agri-Food, Crown-Indigenous Rela-
out government decision-making” by peting priorities, trade-offs, and syn- tions and Northern Affairs, Public
ensuring government decisions “con- ergies among federal departments,
sider climate ambitions in a rigorous, Safety and Emergency Preparedness,
helping to develop climate plans and Employment and Social Development,
consistent and measurable manner…
shepherding their implementation. and others, necessitating a coordinat-
that ensures that government spend-
ing and decisions support Canada’s A recent report by the International ed approach to ensure coherent im-
climate goals.” Institute for Sustainable Development plementation of climate strategy.” In-
F
formed by detailed case studies of
ollowing the 2021 election, the whole-of-government efforts in the
decision to shift the former en- For the first time,
UK, US and B.C., it offers important
vironment minister, Jonathan there will be clear recommendations for implementing
Wilkinson, to the Natural Resources and quantitative a cohesive and effective whole-of-gov-
portfolio, and Steven Guilbeault to
Environment was broadly perceived
transparency around the ernment approach to climate change,
as a strong signal that the govern- scale and timing of emission which the Prime Minister’s Office and
PCO would do well to follow:
ment intends to move quickly on its reductions, which Canadians
campaign promises. Notably, the cre- can use to both hold the 1. The success of a whole-of-govern-
ation of a parliamentary secretary ment climate initiative depends on
role, held by Julie Dabrusin, to work
government accountable and sustained executive leadership di-
with both the natural resources and to evaluate its progress. recting departmental priorities and
environment ministers creates a con- inter-departmental coordination.
Policy11
2. An effective whole-of-government The decision to shift be able to see that things are hopeless
climate initiative requires adequate yet be determined to make them other-
the former
funding, a clear mandate, and ca- wise.” In the era of climate disruption,
pacity to enact change across
environment minister, these words ring true, although in my
departments. Jonathan Wilkinson, to the view it’s less a measure of intelligence
3. An effective whole-of-government Natural Resources portfolio, than emotional fortitude and resilience.
climate initiative requires effective and Steven Guilbeault to What all of this means for the feder-
and empowered personnel acting Environment was broadly al government is that expectations are
high for it to deliver on its climate ac-
in whole-of-government structures. perceived as a strong signal
tion ambitions and commitments, and
4. The mandates of participating that the government intends it has the public support it requires to
departments must align, or be to move quickly on its move forward assertively. But adding
brought into alignment, with the
campaign promises. to the challenge is the obvious imper-
mandate of the whole-of-govern-
ative to not only try to cut pollution
ment climate initiative. to prevent the worst impacts of climate
5. A whole-of-government climate Much as we might hope that B.C’s change, but to prepare for and manage
initiative should report publicly climate annus horribilis was an ex- the impacts that climate change is al-
on its progress and be as transpar- ception, years without climate-fu- ready imposing. Consequently, in par-
ent as possible about its delibera- elled disasters somewhere in Canada allel to advancing an ambitious policy
tions, findings, and research. are more likely to be the exception. package to cut pollution, it will need
Nonetheless, a Leger poll from No- to deliver reactive emergency support
Over the course of its first six years in
vember 2021 found that 75 percent of in response to floods and fire, while si-
office, the Liberal party effectively ad-
Canadians believe we still have time multaneously making investments in
vanced numerous policies and pro-
to put measures in place to stop cli- climate-proofing infrastructure and
grams that promise to deliver emission
mate change. They, like me, appear to delivering programs that will make
reductions in the coming years. Equal-
be what Christiana Figueres, the dip- Canadians safer and more resilient in
ly important, they created a system of
lomat who brokered the Paris Agree- the face of a changing climate.
transparency and accountability we
have never previously had at the fed- ment, calls “stubborn optimists.” It’s no small task, but I remain stub-
eral level. Hopefully, by the time the F. Scott Fitzgerald wrote that, “The test bornly optimistic.
next election rolls around, Canadians of a first-rate intelligence is the ability Contributing Writer Dan Woynillowicz is
will be able to get a clear view of what to hold two opposing ideas in mind at the Principal of Polaris Strategy + Insight,
has been promised, what has been de- the same time and still retain the ability a public policy consulting firm focused on
livered, and whether the two line up. to function. One should, for example, climate change and the energy transition.
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January—February 2022Parliament and the federal government will play an important role in coordinating the response of the provinces, and stakeholders including
business and First Nations, to the global challenges of climate change. iStock photo
Toward a Cleaner, Greener Future
When it comes to climate change, Canada is in the Since 1995, China has achieved the
dubious honour of becoming the
delicate position of being both a fossil fuel exporter and world’s largest emitter, now account-
environmental champion. At COP26, Prime Minister ing for more CO2 emissions than the
four next offenders combined: the
Justin Trudeau made clear that the political calculus on United States, India, Russia, and Ja-
this issue has changed. Former Privy Council Clerk Kevin pan. Together, these nations account
Lynch and former White House aide Paul Deegan provide for an eye-popping 60 per cent of all
global emissions. And the trend is still
the context for our current status quo. upward for emissions from China, In-
dia and the developing world.
While the US, Russia, and Japan, Can-
Kevin Lynch the right direction, but action hasn’t
ada and most EU countries have man-
followed suit. Carbon dioxide emis-
and Paul Deegan aged to cut CO2 emissions modest-
sions released by global fossil fuel ly over the past decade, the reality of
S
ince COP1 — the first United combustion and industrial processes emissions math is that global emis-
Nations Climate Change Con- have jumped from about 25 billion sions have to reach zero on a net basis
ference in Berlin back in 1995 — metric tonnes annually in 1995 to by 2050 to arrest the upward march
the dialogue around our impact on roughly 35 billion metric tonnes by of global warming. That is the im-
the planet has gradually moved in the time of COP26 in Glasgow. mensity of the challenge of climate
Policy13
change. The immediacy of the chal-
The reality of emissions math is that global
lenge is equally daunting: this decade
will decide whether we have bent the emissions have to reach zero on a net basis by 2050
CO2 emissions curve enough to have to arrest the upward march of global warming. That is the
a shot at net zero, or not. immensity of the challenge of climate change.
Geopolitically, given the difficulties
of getting nearly 200 countries to
agree to anything, COP26 was a mod-
erate aspirational success despite some
last minute backsliding by China and
India and unrealistic expectations by dra, massive woodlands and mighty to the availability of fresh water –
activists. Now comes the hard part – rivers, and pretty much everything something we have in abundance but
turning those aspirational goals and in between. We are the stewards of all take for granted at our peril. Small-
earnest pledges into effective actions this, and it is in our own self interest er snowpacks and loss of glacier ice
across the 200 countries that signed to protect, at a minimum, our piece of will produce lower summer flow, and
on to saving the planet in Glasgow. the planet. warmer summers will increase evapo-
And climate change, and its conse- ration of surface water. The even faster
As Bill Gates summed up this chal- disappearance of freshwater supplies
lenge in his recent book, How to quences, are not only a reality today
across Canada but will have an even in the United States and elsewhere
Avoid a Climate Disaster: “We need
bigger impact tomorrow. has the potential to stoke geopolitical
to accomplish something gigantic we
tensions and transborder demands to
have never done before, much fast- The federal government’s 2019 Can- “share” vital water resources.
er than we have ever done anything ada’s Changing Climate Report high-
similar. To do it, we need lots of lights some indisputable truths. Can- Our three oceans are also changing,
breakthroughs in science and engi- ada is warming at an alarming rate. and sea levels are rising. Oceans are
neering. We need to build a consen- Canada’s annual average temperature becoming less salty, which affects
sus that doesn’t exist and create pub- over land has warmed by 1.7 degrees their ability to sequester greenhouse
lic policies to push a transition that C since 1948. The change is most pro- gases. Higher sea levels will give rise
would not happen otherwise.” nounced over the North, which has to more frequent and more extreme
W
seen an increase of 2.3 degrees C over high water-level events. Hurricanes
hat does this all mean for
the same period. This warmer climate will become a more commonplace
Canada? When it comes
is producing more severe heatwaves, occurrence in warmer Canadian wa-
to thinking about climate
droughts, wildfires, and urban floods. ters. Coastal remediation will be an
change in a Canadian context, it’s im-
All of this is taking a toll on our com- imperative, not an option.
portant to consider who we are from
S
geographic, social, economic, and po- munities, our farmers, our infrastruc- ocially, Canada’s Indigenous
litical/diplomatic perspectives. ture, and our resilience. peoples are on the frontline of
The Arctic is the proverbial canary in the impacts of climate change.
Geographically, Canadians are blessed
the climate-change coal mine. Snow Remoteness in terms of foodstuffs,
far more than most around the plan-
and ice are disappearing. Most small health care and emergency response;
et. Our national motto, “A Mari Usque
ice caps and ice shelves in the Cana- a lack of infrastructure; reliance on
ad Mare” (from Sea to Sea) may have
dian Arctic will disappear by 2100. diesel; decreases in ice thickness
missed the Arctic Ocean, but it defi-
The Beaufort Sea and Baffin Bay are which create dangers for those on
nitely captures the sheer vastness of
projected to have extensive ice-free foot and for vehicles; and changes in
our country. We are the second-larg-
periods during summer by mid-cen- wildlife habitat – both in water and
est country by geographic size, after
tury. Glaciers across the mountains on land – make Indigenous commu-
only Russia. We have the world’s lon-
of western Canada could lose 75 per- nities particularly vulnerable. Yet,
gest coastline, at more than 200,000
cent to 95 percent of their volume by they can teach us and the world
kilometres. We share the world’s lon-
late century. Spring lake-ice break- much about responsible stewardship
gest international border, some 9,000
up could be 10 to 25 days earlier by of our land and resources.
kilometers, with the United States. We
are one of only eight Arctic nations. mid-century, and fall freeze-up five Economically, climate change is the
We are the third most-forested coun- to 15 days later. There is a polar bear most daunting challenge of our time,
try in the world, with nearly 350 mil- on the toonie to remind us we are but also a huge opportunity if we re-
lion hectares. We have the fourth larg- an Arctic nation, and today both the spond with innovative policies, em-
est supply of fresh water in the world, Arctic and that polar bear are griev- brace new technologies and don’t lose
at more than 2,900 cubic kilometers. ously endangered by climate change. sight of being competitive. For Cana-
We’ve got towering mountain ranges The 2019 federal report also high- da, a nation equally rich in resources
and endless prairies, glaciers and tun- lights the risks climate change brings and in talent, we can be a leader in the
January—February 202214
transition to a net zero future. Ener- The Arctic is the cy capacity and mobilize like-mind-
gy remains our biggest export earner, ed friends in other countries. In par-
and fossil fuels are going to be need-
proverbial canary in ticular, the developing world has to
ed for some time to come. We need a the climate-change coal be part of the climate change solu-
two-track approach that is both clear mine. Snow and ice are tion, and the developed world has to
and innovative: to help our fossil fuel disappearing. Most small ice help them financially and techno-
industry transition to a low-carbon logically in their transitions, first and
future and to grow Canada’s clean en-
caps and ice shelves in the
foremost away from coal.
ergy sector. The world will continue Canadian Arctic will
The American relationship on cli-
to need our natural resources but we disappear by 2100. The mate change holds both promise and
have to transition to producing them Beaufort Sea and Baffin
in a climate-friendly way. It’s about risk. While Joe Biden is not Donald
sustaining paychecks and sustaining
Bay are projected to have Trump, his trade policies have Trum-
the environment – two things that are extensive ice-free periods pian echoes and there is a lack of co-
herence to his foreign policy. Pro-
increasingly intertwined and primary during summer by
drivers of living standards. tecting American jobs and local
mid-century. self interest will be powerful forces
As Jock Finlayson and David Williams during the difficult adjustment to
of the Business Council of British Co- net zero, as can be seen by the Biden
ar power capacity. Here, there is great
lumbia wrote recently wrote in The
room for cooperation among the fed- administration’s proposal to exclude
Globe and Mail: “…policy makers must
eral government, provinces and First Canadian-made (and Mexican) EVs
avoid undermining Canada’s role as
Nations to expand hydroelectric pro- from purchase incentives offered
a trusted supplier of energy, miner-
duction and distribution, and to con- to Americans. But Biden recogniz-
als/metals, foodstuffs and other raw
sider small modular nuclear reactors es there is a climate crisis and it re-
materials. The world consumes these
for the oil sands, major mining proj- quires both domestic action and in-
products and will keep buying them –
ects and power in the north. ternational cooperation.
hopefully from us. Yes, it’s a complex
balancing act. But Canadian living To achieve these transitions and others The COP26 Summit in Glasgow pre-
standards depend on getting it right.” at the scale and speed needed, govern- sented an opportunity to reboot
W
ments will need to provide the incen- and reset the relationship, seeking
hether it’s solar, wind, elec-
tives and supportive regulatory envi- alignment over an effective Cana-
tric vehicles, battery stor-
ronment to hasten the private sector’s da-US climate plan, and in so do-
age, geothermal, hydrogen,
adjustment, university researchers will ing demonstrate coordinated North
small modular nuclear reactors or car-
have to become vital partners in find- American leadership to the world.
bon capture and storage, technology
ing technological solutions. And fi- We have done it before on the envi-
is rapidly becoming better and cheap-
nancial markets will have to support ronment, and it is time for a repeat
er. Why can’t we think of combin-
these transitions by adjusting their performance.
ing the low carbon footprint of small
short-term return expectations and fi-
modular nuclear reactors and carbon Glasgow achieved about as much as
nancing innovative technologies.
capture and storage with the govern- could have been realistically expect-
ment’s proposed policy of a cap on Politically, besides building a strong ed. It turned public attention around
oil and gas sector emissions to create public consensus for change and the the world to the issue of climate
a win-win scenario? Can we become impacts of those changes, the biggest change, its gravity and its urgency.
a leader in aspects of electric vehicle challenge for the federal government The “why” is clear, the focus in every
production, reducing transportation will be working effectively with the country has to be on the “how” of
emissions through regulations and provinces. To state the obvious, this building a greener, cleaner and pros-
building an export industry at the will not be easy, but it is absolutely perous future. But climate change is
same time? How do we turn our sci- necessary given the reality of our fed-
an existential global threat and we
ence strengths to re-imagine how we eration and it will require a degree of
can deal with it better, cheaper, and
do mining, farming and fishing, all two-way engagement, common pur-
faster by doing it together.
pillars of our economy? pose, and flexibility. At the same
time, getting the business sector on Contributing Writer Kevin Lynch, a
On the clean energy side, we are
the same page is crucial, and this will former Clerk of the Privy Council, was
most competitive globally at nucle-
take equal dollops of policy certainty, vice chair of BMO Financial Group.
ar and hydroelectric power. At near-
ly 400 terawatt hours, we are the assistance and partnership. Contributing Writer Paul Deegan, a
D
second largest hydroelectric power iplomatically, climate change former BMO and CN executive, was
producer in the world. While that’s presents more downsides than Deputy Executive Director of the White
impressive, China more than tre- upside, which is why we have House National Economic Council
bles us, and even more so for nucle- to invest heavily in our foreign poli- under President Clinton.
Policy15
The Verdict on COP26:
Keeping Hope Alive
After decades of incremental progress, intermittent warning that, by the end of winter,
“pretty much everyone in Germany
two-steps-back and occasional triumphs, COP26 took its will be vaccinated, cured, or dead.”
place in the history of COPs at a time when existential In the global response to vaccine
urgency has never been more acute. Veteran diplomat distribution, governments primar-
ily took care of their own citizens.
Jeremy Kinsman explores the twin challenges of COVID-19 Donations to the Covax scheme im-
and climate change, and what was revealed in Glasgow proved somewhat as vaccine produc-
about our global coping mechanisms. tion and supply stabilized, but they
are still inadequate and not assured.
Unless the developed world makes ef-
Jeremy Kinsman The issue here is whether the world’s
fective vaccines more globally avail-
multilateral and collective behavioural
T
able, deaths will scale way beyond the
he “aliens invade Earth” mov- and institutional equipment is up to
current and undoubtedly understated
ie genre has plumbed a couple working in the collective self-interest
toll of five million, depending on the
of themes over the last many of humanity. No doubt, competitive
severity of the Omicron and no doubt
years. The more thoughtful – Stanley nationalism has been on the rise. But
subsequent COVID variants. Still, the
Kubrick’s 2001: A Space Odyssey and did COP26 show a slight turning of
pandemic is a “once in a century event”
Steven Spielberg’s Close Encounters of the tide toward cooperation?
— tragic but transient. Climate change
the Third Kind — offered evolved ex- The two intersecting crises are is unfortunately anything but.
traterrestrial civilizations with benev- worth comparing. Time frames dif-
olent motives to save earthlings from Global warming is also a borderless
fer. Human pandemics come and go.
our crude inclinations for self-destruc- adversary, but one for which there
COVID’s costs are mostly immediate.
tion. More sensational blockbusters, is no protective vaccine. Its full de-
But they have landed just when the
though, depict aliens as malevolent structive effect will be decades hence,
costly challenge of weaning Earth
attackers. In the box-office champ In- though loss and damage and costs of
from what Guterres called “life sup-
dependence Day, humanity unites to adaptation are already vast.
port” in the race to a survivable cli-
C
repel the invaders. Earth wins. mate is at its most urgent. limate change impacts every-
Which trope most accurately mirrors thing: growth, debt, weath-
The stark threat of COVID’s latest vari-
global reaction to the COVID-19 pan- er, drought, health, migration,
ant surge was vividly depicted by Ger-
demic, and to global warming, stress conflict, equity, communications, sci-
man Health Minister Jens Spahn as he
tests of international cooperation in ence, humanity’s capacity for trust in
urged the unvaccinated to get jabbed,
our collective self-defence? one another, politics and geopolitics.
Former British Prime Minister Gor- Former British Prime Is human governance up to it?
don Brown called the competitive self- Glasgow revealed a lot of what is
Minister Gordon wrong, but also showed glimmers
ishness of nations over COVID: “The
greatest moral failure of our time.” On Brown called the competitive of hope for enough political will to
global warming, United Nations Secre- selfishness of nations over emerge to point to a way out.
tary-General António Guterres warns, COVID: “The greatest moral Both crises reflect generational divides,
“We are at the edge of the abyss.”
failure of our time.” On global but with inverse levels of concern.
Our need to be saved from our de- warming, United Nations Those insistent on urgent and maxi-
structive nationalist and selfish in- mum protection from COVID are old-
clinations is obvious, though salva-
Secretary-General António er, more vulnerable citizens, while the
tion will have to be sourced here on Guterres warns, “We are at younger are less concerned, and resent
Earth, not from aliens. Alas, unity in the edge of the abyss. the costs of immediate lockdown. Glob-
face of the threats has been absent. al warming’s longer time frame means
January—February 2022You can also read
