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www.policymagazine.ca March—April 2020
Canadian Politics and Public Policy
AThe
World in Turmoil
Conservative
Leadership
$6.95 Volume 8 – Issue 2
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In This Issue
Canadian Politics
and PublicFrom
Policy
2 the Editor / L. Ian MacDonald
The World in Turmoil
Canadian Politics and
Public Policy
3 Jeremy Kinsman
Canada’s Role in a World of Turmoil
EDITOR AND PUBLISHER 6 Robin V. Sears
A China Reality Check
L. Ian MacDonald
lianmacdonald@policymagazine.ca
ASSOCIATE EDITOR
10
Dennis Horak
U.S.-Iran Relations: Lessons for Canada From the Ukraine
Lisa Van Dusen Airlines Tragedy
lvandusen@policymagazine.ca
CONTRIBUTING WRITERS
13 Suzanne Fortier
Letter From Davos: A Powerful Telescope Into the Future
Thomas S. Axworthy,
Andrew Balfour, Yaroslav Baran,
Derek H. Burney, Catherine Cano,
15 Elizabeth May
Australia: Ground Zero of Climate Politics
Margaret Clarke, Rachel Curran,
John Delacourt, Susan Delacourt, The Conservative Race
Graham Fraser, Dan Gagnier,
Helaina Gaspard, Martin Goldfarb,
Sarah Goldfeder, Patrick Gossage,
17
Yaroslav Baran
The Road to Toronto: Pathway to Power
Frank Graves, Shachi Kurl, Brad Lavigne,
Kevin Lynch, Jeremy Kinsman, 19 eoff Norquay
G
The Conservative Leadership: Waiting for Content
Peter Mansbridge, Carissima Mathen,
Elizabeth May, Velma McColl,
David McLaughlin, David Mitchell, 21
Brian Topp
Party Members Don’t Pick Leaders, and They Should
Don Newman, Geoff Norquay,
Fen Osler-Hampson, Kevin Page,
Robin V. Sears, Brian Topp,
24 olumn / Don Newman
C
Thanks, but No Thanks
Lori Turnbull, Jaime Watt,
Anthony Wilson-Smith Budget Preview
WEB DESIGN
Nicolas Landry
policy@nicolaslandry.ca
25
Kevin Page with Kyra Carmichael, Nicholas Liban Dahir,
and Hiba Khan
Budget 2020: Managing Risk and Uncertainty
SOCIAL MEDIA EDITOR
Grace MacDonald
gmacdonald@policymagazine.ca
27 Helaina Gaspard and Emily Woolner
Budgeting for Well-Being
GRAPHIC DESIGN & PRODUCTION
Monica Thomas Canada and the World
monica@foothillsgraphics.ca
29 Shachi Kurl
A Canadian Divide Over Barricades, Pipelines and
Policy
Indigenous Reconciliation
Policy is published six times annually
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copyrighted, but may be reproduced
31 Philip J. Cercone
Can’tLit? Complacency and Canadian Publishing Policy
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L. Ian MacDonald
Leo: A Life, Well-Lived
Policy home page at
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2
From the Editor / L. Ian MacDonald
A World in Turmoil
W
elcome to our issue on A by its almost hysterical reaction to the Rona Ambrose, Pierre Poilievre and
World in Turmoil, in which January 11 re-election of President John Baird, all of whom said “Thanks,
we look at some of the re- Tsai Ing-wen in Taiwan.” but no thanks”. That left former Pro-
cent global issues—from China to When it comes to the Middle East and gressive Conservative Leader Peter
Iran to climate change—facing us all. Gulf states, the credentials of Dennis MacKay the default frontrunner and
For Canada, as always, the question is Horak, former head of mission in Iran MP Erin O’Toole, for the moment, a
about our place, and role, in the world. and later ambassador to Saudi Ara- distant second. Veteran Conservative
From the end of the Second World bia, are as solid as they come. On the strategist Yaroslav Baran looks at the
War 75 years ago, to the end of the shooting-down of Ukraine Airlines road to the Toronto convention, while
Cold War nearly half a century lat- Flight 752, which claimed the lives of Geoff Norquay considers the players.
er, Canada’s place was with its allies 57 Canadians and 29 permanent Ca- In terms of process, Brian Topp looks
and its role was as a middle power nadian residents, Horak sees it as the across from the NDP gallery and sug-
in the struggle of democracy against tragic outcome of decades of hostili- gests party members should have a
tyranny, and of free markets versus ty between Washington and Tehran, greater say than a preferential on-line
with Canada caught in the crossfire. ballot, as is the case with the Conser-
state economies.
“Future incidents,” Horak writes, “are vatives. And Don Newman handicaps
The fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 and the race in his column.
a near certainty.”
E
the demise of Soviet communism,
were supposed to herald a geopoliti- The world’s most important annu- lsewhere, Kevin Page previews
cal realignment, an era of peace and al conference of ideas is held by the Budget 2020, with the collabo-
prosperity led by the United States, World Economic Forum every January ration of several of his students
with Canada in its customary role as in Davos, featuring a strong Canadian from the Institute for Fiscal Studies
an honest broker. Now, the post-Cold contingent led by the likes of Suzanne and Democracy while IFSD Director of
War New World Order that seemed Fortier, Principal and Vice-Chancellor Governance Helaina Gaspard and re-
inevitable in 1989 has been usurped of McGill. Fortier is currently Chair of search assistant Emily Woolner look
by a different New World Order, one the WEF’s Global University Leaders’ to a better world of budget transpar-
with decidedly different values. Forum, and shares her impressions ency and vision. Meanwhile, pollster
from this year’s WEF. She was struck Shachi Kurl offers a timely look at the
There’s no better guide for this tour
by two Davos reports, Jobs of Tomor- mood of Canada on rail blockades,
d’horizon than our own lead foreign
row and Schools of the Future. She con- pipelines and reconciliation with In-
affairs writer and former senior dip-
cludes: “I hope to give members of the digenous peoples.
lomat Jeremy Kinsman. “Our foreign
McGill community the opportunity On the Canadian book industry, Philip
policy belief system, the mantra of co-
to be local and global shapers.” Cercone of McGill-Queen’s University
operative liberal internationalism,” he
writes, “is being challenged, especial- On the heels of her excellent report- Press looks at Canadian publishing,
ly in our own neighbourhood.” But ing from the Madrid COP25 in our acclaimed internationally for writers
it isn’t just Donald Trump. There are last issue, former Green Party leader such as Margaret Atwood, but strug-
other actors, in China, Russia, Iran Elizabeth May delivers her take on gling to grow market share at home.
and elsewhere pushing the world the Australia bushfires as just one fac- Finally, I was privileged to work with
away from democracy. tor making Australia ground zero of Sen. Leo Kolber on his best-selling
O
climate politics. “We are operating in 2003 memoir Leo: A Life, and offer a
ur Robin Sears knows Asia a fog,” she concludes, “or maybe it’s tribute on his recent passing, at 90.
and China like his own back- just the smoke.”
C
yard, having worked as Ontar- And we offer three reviews of impor-
io’s Tokyo-based representative, and loser to home, we’re now in tant Canadian books—Lori Turn-
later in the private sector in Hong the spring of the Conserva- bull on Beverley McLachlin’s mem-
Kong. Our cover image speaks vol- tive leadership race, marked oir, Truth Be Told, a judge’s fascinating
umes, with Hong Kong residents tak- in the early going by the successive life; Anthony Wilson-Smith on Tim
ing to the streets in late 2019 to protest standing-down of first-tier candidates. Cook’s The Fight for History, on Can-
an extradition bill pushed by Beijing. Usually, the opposition leader is ada and the Second World War, and
Sears writes that China’s obdurate “re- viewed by the party as a prime minis- Daniel Béland on Donald Savoie’s De-
fusal to give an inch towards reconcil- ter in waiting, especially in a minority mocracy in Canada.
iation in Hong Kong, is now matched Parliament. Tell that to Jean Charest, All must-reads. Enjoy.
Policy
3
Canada’s Role in a World
of Turmoil
After the end of the Second World War in 1945 and panied the Berlin Wall’s fall in 1989.
That ignited a decade when we as-
following the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, Canada sumed more open and cooperative so-
played an important middle power role in the post-war cieties would be de rigueur. It seemed
and post-Cold War spread of democratic values and free inevitable that national impulses
and expectations would be mediated
market economies. But that’s not the shape or direction through universal cooperative inter-
of today’s emerging world of turbulence. Our lead for- national rules and institutions.
eign affairs writer Jeremy Kinsman asks the pertinent So it goes. Our national interest is as
Canadian question: what is Canada’s role in this new vested as ever in cooperative rules-
based internationalism, but we can’t
world of turmoil? hang on to old international in-
stitutions, habits of thought, and
world rankings that are overtaken by
new realities.
Jeremy Kinsman “How am I doing?” But we are stuck with our geogra-
A
fter 75 years, our foreign poli- One day an older lady pleaded, “May- phy. Still, we needn’t bow to Mon-
cy belief system, the mantra tesquieu’s dictum that geography
or! Please make it like it was...Make it
of cooperative liberal interna- is all that drives our fate. It’s also
like it used to be.”
tionalism, is being challenged, espe- our leverage.
cially in our own neighbourhood. “Lady,” he said, “It was never as good
We shall always be emphatically
as we think it was...But I’ll try.”
A contagion of competitive national- North American, though our geo-
istic illiberalism and misremembered graphic self-concept is enlarging as
nostalgia is pushing back against the Of course, today’s we add our sense of our North, as in
“From Sea to Sea to Sea.”
forces of globalization and change. turmoil roiling the
Borne on the winds of populist slo- world shows a drastic Canada’s outward view is themati-
gans—“Make America Great Again,”
change in mood from the cally very different from that of the
or (Brexit’s) “Take Back Control”—it Trump White House. We need to stay
venerates old identities, status, and internationalist optimism
unapologetically globalists, and con-
values. that accompanied the Berlin tinue energetically to strengthen ties
Change happens. Its impact on world
Wall’s fall in 1989. That with like-minded internationalists as
rankings has created an increasingly ignited a decade when we “the other North America.” We need
assumed more open and to work together to reboot the world’s
fierce U.S. resistance to China’s chal-
belief in liberal internationalism.
lenge to U.S. primacy, catching Can- cooperative societies would
ada in the middle. be de rigueur. It’s worth reflecting on how it lost
ground.
Confidence and turbulent change
have always interacted in contrary It happened the way Hemingway de-
global cycles. scribed in The Sun Also Rises, how
bankruptcy happens: at first, “gradu-
Upheaval in the 1970s had left many
O
ally. Then suddenly.”
older Americans reeling, and long- f course,today’s turmoil roil-
ing for times gone by. Ed Koch, the ing the world shows a dras- The nineties had a golden surface.
ebullient mayor of New York, con- tic change in mood from the Western stock markets boomed, pro-
tinuously checked their pulse asking, internationalist optimism that accom- pelled by new tech. China and India
March/April 2020
4
services devastated the reputation of
the capitalist system in the eyes of
millions. But again, Canadians de-
fied the crisis. Our prudent finan-
cial regulations kept us on dry land
from the flood of bankruptcies that
affected ordinary people almost ev-
erywhere else.
Obama won office just as the still un-
derestimated 2008 financial crisis was
unfolding. His distinct preference for
multilateralism renewed the hopes of
internationalists. Moreover, his belief
that “yes, we can,” helped to fuel the
Arab Spring of protests and uprisings
against authoritarian governments in
the Islamic world.
Except for Tunisia’s, they failed.
M
oreover, while Canada em-
braced Obama’s interna-
tionalism, democracy-
averse China and Russia, even India,
chose to pump up nationalist pride
and purpose. To some extent, they
U.S. President George H.W. Bush and Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev during a press gamed the international economic
conference at the Helsinki Summit on September 9, 1990. Wikimedia photo system which they regarded as serv-
ing the interests of the established
economic powers who designed it.
began their accelerated ascension to Unfortunately, in 2003, the U.S. The World Trade Organization stag-
the world Premier Economic League, and U.K. rushed to an unnecessary gered into increasing irrelevance.
lifting hundreds of millions into the invasion of Iraq that catastrophi- Rising countries resented the assump-
middle class. cally turned the Middle East into tion they should just imitate West-
the world’s first failed region. Jean ern liberal ways. On the other hand,
W
e celebrated the end of the Chrétien made the right call, to stay many of the best and brightest in the
Cold War, an outcome en- out of what presidential candidate post-communist countries of Europe
abled by Mikhail Gor- Barack Obama would later term “this emigrated to the West. This depletion
bachev. But we were naive to think stupid war.” by emigration induced phobic antip-
that it was bound to be welcomed athy to phantom immigration, espe-
as win-win for everybody. Despite cially Muslim, as the grotesque Syr-
George H.W. Bush’s thoughtful ad- Moreover, while ian civil war and conflict with ISIS
spewed millions of refugees across
vice, American triumphalism began Canada embraced porous European borders (though
to make resentful Russians feel like Obama’s internationalism, paradoxically, not to the post-com-
losers. U.S. neo-conservatives dis-
missed grievance over NATO expan-
democracy-averse China and munist countries in question).
sion to Russia’s borders. “We won. Russia, even India, chose to Populist nationalist leaders exploited
Get over it.” So, Vladimir Putin’s re- pump up nationalist pride the fever of resentment, contesting
covering Russia went rogue. and purpose. liberal Western values. Demagogues
marshalled nationalist, ethnic, and
On 9/11, 2001, the roof fell in on sectarian majorities against plural-
complacent Western narcissism. Ji- ism, change, and established “elites”
hadist terrorism became a new global at home and abroad. They also be-
scourge. Borders hardened, including gan to disassemble the checks and
our own with the U.S. Societies re-pri- In 2008, the evidence of endemic fi- balances of democracy in favour of
oritized for a new kind of war. nancial fraud in Western financial authoritarian power. The contagion
Policy
5
of nationalist populism metastasized Our Canada-U.S. working levels function day-to-day
to Western democracies where “left-
pretty well in mutual functional interest. Basic
behind” workers blamed “global-
ization” and the remorseless ener- friendships endure and sooner or later will again prevail in
gy of change for the export of their defining the bilateral relationship.
jobs and the hollowing-out of their
communities.
Amplified by errant and irresponsi-
ble monetized social media, political
polarization eviscerated the centre,
where compromise can live. As Wil- dition treaty stipulates for extradi- government will keep its composure
liam Butler Yeats put it in The Second tion. Yet, for decades, Canada has and accept that we have to navigate
Coming a century ago, opposed the extraterritorial appli- the world on terms that suit our in-
cation of U.S. law to foreigners, and terests. Lining up behind the Trump
“Things fall apart; the centre cannot abroad. It is baffling why Canadian administration in an adversarial G-2
hold. ........ Justice officials who, according to contest is not the way to go.
The best lack all conviction, while the treaty, represent the U.S. case in
the worst Trump’s ascent wasn’t an accident.
Vancouver court hearings continue
Are full of passionate intensity.” America today is what it is, polar-
to present over-the-top arguments
ized, dysfunctional, and unreliable
that Canada should extradite the
Thus, “America First!” became a win- at the top. As Lester Pearson once
ambushed Huawei executive.
ning presidential slogan in 2016, said, we shouldn’t shy from giving
supplanting Obama’s international- In a cynical and deplorable reprisal, the Americans a kick in the shins ev-
ist leadership. Tariffs and sanctions the furious Chinese jailed two inno- ery so often. Our Canada-U.S. work-
were weaponized against partners cent Canadians. It was a very harsh ing levels function day-to-day pretty
who resisted the systematic undoing warning to all and sundry that Chi- well in mutual interest. Basic friend-
of international agreements to tame na has real red lines at stake in this ships endure and sooner or later will
humanity’s greatest threats, nuclear new era of all-out competition with again prevail in defining the bilater-
weapons, and global warming. the U.S. Unfortunately, it prompt- al relationship.
ed a phobic wave of anti-Chinese re-
F
irst gradually, then suddenly, In the meantime, our national inter-
porting in Canadian print media, and
internationalist Canada was ests call for determined defence of
calls for counter-reprisals against the
mugged by the increasing- international cooperation, and resis-
Chinese. We resisted those, but clear-
ly dominant nationalist reality. Yet, tance to nationalist populism. The
ly, the rosy lens which for some time
we managed a defensive save of our most effective promotion of democ-
had blurred the real nature of new
most important relationship by ne- racy is by the vivid example of in-
China’s old-style communist leader-
gotiating an upgrade of NAFTA. We clusive and responsive governance
ship needed an updated prescription.
completed a comprehensive 21st at home that works. The crisis over
With wary eyes wide open, we need
century economic cooperation agree- the Wet’suwet’en territory is a test.
that relationship.
ment with the EU. But with the other Resilience and capacity to navigate
of the three great economic powers, China’s profound crisis over the deftly challenging surprise “events”
China, it went sour. coronavirus epidemic has been a like the Iranian plane catastrophe
chastening experience, jarring their and our breakdown with China
The emerging U.S./China rivalry enormously successful top-down na- also test us.
blindsided us into entrapping Hua- tional development narrative. But
wei’s Meng Wanzhou at YVR on be- There will always be combative Ca-
it has permitted Canadian and Chi-
half of a vindictive U.S. Department nadian political voices condemning a
nese officials to connect and coop-
of Justice. The U.S. sought to hob- smile for the Iranian or Chinese for-
erate. It may have increased mutual
ble China’s principal competitor for eign minister as inappropriate, who
confidence so that we can resolve our
global telecommunications primacy judge that reaching out to communi-
shared hostage problem.
with an indictment for Iranian sanc- cate is a sign of weakness.
M
tions-busting that had nothing to do
eanwhile, the old U.S. neo- But it never is.
with Canada.
conservative security blob
Contributing Writer Jeremy Kinsman
This isn’t the place to re-litigate the is pumping up the neces- is a former Canadian Ambassador
argument that Meng Wanzhou cer- sity of a new Cold War against Chi- to Russia and the European Union,
tainly did not commit a crime that na, along with hard-line solidarity and High Commissioner to the U.K.
would merit at least a year’s impris- against other enemies, notably Rus- He is a Distinguished Fellow with the
onment in Canada that the extra- sia, and Iran. Hopefully, the Trudeau Canadian International Council.
March/April 2020
6
Protesters in Hong Kong demanding democratic reform, October, 2019. Former Hong Kong resident Robin Sears writes that Beijing’s intractability on
Hong Kong is now matched by its fixation on Taiwan’s newly re-elected government. Wikimedia photo
A China Reality Check
As the “peaceful rise” China’s leaders promised amid the Robin V. Sears
T
country’s stunning socioeconomic progress has proven to his was to have been a year of
be bumpier than anticipated, the tension between Bei- celebration of the half-century
anniversary of Canada’s land-
jing’s global ambitions and the rules-based international mark recognition, in 1970, of the
order have escalated. Veteran political strategist Robin People’s Republic of China. Instead,
Sears, who spent six years as Ontario’s agent general for we are close to a state of paralysis in
government-to-government relations.
Asia and a further six in the private sector in Hong Kong, The bilateral dynamic has not been
writes that now more than ever, Canada must proceed this bad since the global outrage over
the People’s Liberation Army crack-
with caution. down on protesters in Tiananmen
Square in 1989. Some China watchers
say things have never been this chilly.
Canada is not alone in facing a more
unpredictable and obdurate China.
Not only is the United States enter-
ing round two of a potentially disas-
trous trade war; Australia, Germany,
Sweden and many other nations are
Policy7
all experiencing the consequences The Chinese refusal to give an inch toward
of a China too easily offended and
too often over-reacting to perceived
reconciliation in Hong Kong is now matched by
slights. China appears to be drifting an almost hysterical reaction to the January 11
toward the brink of confrontation re-election of President Tsai Ing-wen in Taiwan. Taiwan is
on several fronts. the most emotionally charged file in China’s relations
We need to recognize that our com- with the world.
mercial interests in this relationship,
while of strategic importance to us
more than to China, cannot always
take precedence over maintaining the
post-war consensus on the rules gov-
erning members of the internation- the Treasure Island featuring video of American, Japanese and Taiwanese
al community. We have made these fighters circling Taiwan. At the same command and control systems in tar-
choices before. We supported—albe- time, in the real world, the Chinese geted cyber-attacks. A military offen-
it, too late—tough sanctions on apart- air force broke a three-decade old con- sive or targeted cyberattack against
heid South Africa at some commercial vention and flew fighter jets across the Taiwan’s economy, energy grid or
cost to Canadian business. line in the Taiwan Strait separating the other infrastructure could draw the
island from the mainland. One of Chi- U.S. and the West into an unprece-
T
he Chinese refusal to give an na’s two aircraft carriers (two more are dented, status-testing escalation.
inch toward reconciliation in currently under construction) made
Former U.S. Secretary of State and Chi-
Hong Kong is now matched by two passes in the Taiwan Strait in less
na expert Henry Kissinger, who more
an almost hysterical reaction to the than two months; again, a first. In a
than any other has defined and de-
January 11 re-election of President bombastic reaction to the landslide
fended the West’s efforts to find a way
Tsai Ing-wen in Taiwan. Taiwan is the re-election of President Tsai, the offi-
to work with China, has pleaded for
most emotionally charged file in Chi- cial Chinese response called the result
an understanding of our long-term
na’s relations with the world. China’s a “fluke,” said her victory had been
goals and the time required to achieve
claim on Taiwan as an integral part of achieved through massive “cheating,”
them. Kissinger draws on the similar-
the nation goes back to the 19th cen- and declared the winner “evil.”
ities today with World War One. He
tury. Chiang Kai-Shek’s flight to Tai- The world has never been here before. points out that every statesman in the
wan and his successful bloody seizure Today in China the world faces a rich spring of 1914 would have behaved
of the island, cheated the PLA of their and increasingly powerful authoritar- very differently if they could have seen
final victory over their hated enemy, ian state, integral to the global econo- what horrific consequences would un-
his Kuomintang army. my. The Soviet Union by contrast may fold as a result of their choices that
not have been “Bangladesh with bal- summer. They did not have that abil-
Since the creation of the People’s Re-
listic missiles,” in the dismissive words ity, but we have no such excuse.
public of China (PRC) in 1949, the
of American super-hawk Richard Per-
Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has The Communist Party of China’s for-
le, but neither was it a true global su-
been obsessed by ‘unity’ with Taiwan. eign policy, until Deng Xiaoping,
perpower. Strategies to counter Soviet
They reconciled with one faction of echoing that of centuries of Chinese
power and influence when the world
the Kuomintang (KMT) in the 70s, emperors, had one centre of gravity:
was easily bifurcated into capitalism
only to be enraged by the creation of the defence of the motherland. Chi-
and communism will not apply here.
a successful political competitor in na never attempted to occupy distant
China today is not simply integrated
Ms.Tsai’s party, the Democratic Pro- foreign territories, only those on its
into the economy in ways the USSR
gressive Party (DPP). In the unending borders. Foreign imperial adventures
never was, it is absolutely crucial to it.
ironies of Chinese history, the CCP simply did not contribute to the de-
Cold War era policies of isolation can-
and the rump of the KMT are now fence of Chinese territory. Mao and
not apply here.
allies, but in today’s KMT, the CCP even Deng would probably have been
O
has a very weakened ally. Beijing has deeply skeptical about the PLA Navy
n Taiwan, we may be ap-
been blocked at every turn by an in- setting up a provocative naval base on
proaching a dangerous prec-
creasingly independent nation of citi- the Horn of Africa, for example. The
ipice. Chinese military ca-
zens, many of whom identify as Tai- massive Chinese Djibouti base is lit-
pacity is reaching the level at which
wanese first and Chinese second. erally beside even larger U.S., French
a “successful” invasion could be con-
Evidence of this obsession was re- templated. According to some mili- and other military bases and assets
vealed by the PLA Air Force a few tary observers in Taiwan and Wash- along that vital shipping corridor.
months ago when they released a pop ington, China already has the ca- What makes this situation unique,
video titled, My War Eagles Are Circling pability to render blind and useless and in no way vulnerable to the
March/April 20208
“Thucydides trap” whereby when one Seen from the perspective of the Unit- hardly rational responses to a public
great power rises to displace another, ed States and the West however, Chi- health crisis. They reflect the ambigu-
war is the result, is this: China, unlike na’s efforts to buy influence across vast ity of Chinese leaders’ thinking about
Sparta, or Carthage, or even Germa- swathes of territory beyond its borders the use of state power in a crisis.
ny, is already a superpower—militar- with the Belt and Road infrastructure
T
ily and economically—woven deeply initiative, its efforts to threaten access wo threads of Chinese history
into the fabric of the global economy. to the South China Sea, its complete —the justifiable angst of its
There is no realistic economic decou- rejection of international legal deci- rulers about their domestic
pling possible, except at a cost of tril- sions about free passage, its rapidly ex- survival and a suspicion of the non-
lions and decades of destructive effort. panding blue water navy, and its ris- Chinese world—still form part of
ing rhetorical aggression towards its the culture of the leadership of the
neighbours, paint a picture of a sober- CCP today.
China, unlike Sparta, ing new strategic threat.
or Carthage, or even A secure party in power does not in-
China has, according to some intelli-
Germany, is already a gence observers the largest and most
vite international opprobrium and
waste billions of dollars building “re-
superpower—militarily and capable network of spy agencies in the education” camps for its citizens. A
economically—woven deeply world. There’s an emerging consensus secure leader does not regularly pro-
into the fabric of the global that it is at least coming to be Ameri- claim the unshakeable future of his
ca’s equal in this domain.
economy. There is no rule—unless he worries that that
realistic economic Yet no vision is sufficient to under- may not be the case. In finding the
right balance, therefore, in a stra-
decoupling possible. standing China’s sometimes baffling
tegic analysis of China’s intentions
behavior without the inclusion of a
final layer: China and the CCP are, and likely future choices, each factor
and always have been, deeply insecure deserves weight.
about their place in the world and It is true that China often presents it-
H
their legitimacy in power. The Chi- self on the global stage with a provoca-
ere is an indication of the nese Communist Party has not had tive arrogance. There is no monolithic
challenge: General Motors al- as deeply insecure as Xi Jinping since
ready sells far more cars in ‘China Inc.,’ but across many of its in-
its first. Mao’s feared class enemies stitutions, one can hear the tension in
China that it does in the U.S. Does “swarmed like flies” around him at all
anyone believe those ratios will be re- their leaders’ public statements, veer-
times. That Xi is in power at the same ing between overweening confidence
versed in a market 1.4 billion of still moment as America’s most deeply in-
mostly car-less buyers vs. the declin- and a hesitation revealing an underly-
secure president in memory doesn’t ing uncertainty. And there is the im-
ing U.S. market? The core of China’s enhance global stability.
drive toward technological self-suffi- pact of history in other ways. A popu-
ciency is the ability to manufacture Deep insecurity is common among lar aphorism used by Chinese leaders
leading-edge semiconductor chips. Chinese leaders, and understand- to explain their differences to western
Most experts suggest that they are at able. After all, there have been very critics is “Remember, we are the sec-
least a decade away from catching up few changes of emperor in Chinese ond generation in all the years of the
with today’s chips. A leader in that history—over three millennia—that Chinese history that does not have to
sector, is ironically, Taiwan. have not been violent. The history of worry about starvation or war…that
the CCP itself is one of regular, often changes one’s perspective somewhat
We face a multi-layered complexity in on what’s important, and how fast
bloody factional battles. The years
today’s strategic puzzle, with one lay- one can move.”
between Deng Xiaoping’s death and
er being economic, another military,
Xi’s installation for life, only a few
and a third managing China’s global In stark contrast to the authoritarian
decades, are the only exception in a
ambitions. Seen through the eyes of angst above them is the surging confi-
century, delivering smooth changes
a hardline PLA general, China’s stra- dence and creative optimism of more
of leadership.
tegic position is one of a nation dan- affluent, well-educated young Chinese
gerously encircled by increasingly The response to the Wuhan coronavi- citizens than ever in the country’s his-
well-armed neighbours who treat the rus is another example of an insecure tory. As you listen to young Chinese
motherland with disrespect. After all, state’s management of a crisis: first business leaders brag about their plans
Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Mongolia, Ka- denial and concealment, then partial to compete with the world ... to com-
zakhstan, India, Burma, Malaysia, Sin- disclosure, followed by massive over- pete with the best, be victorious in
gapore, Vietnam, Indonesia, and the reaction. Locking down 56 million of sports, electronic gaming, AI and on
Philippines all regard China with in- your citizens and then bringing much and on, one cannot but be impressed
creasing suspicion. of your economy to a standstill are by their dynamism.
Policy9
They study abroad in the hundreds of Institute survey published late last national standards on basic human
thousands and then maintain the in- year showed unfavourable views of rights. With our allies, this requires
ternational friendships and networks the country had risen to 66 percent constant and vigorous pushback.
they develop there. They are proud from 51 percent in 2018. The data also We must continue to press for the re-
Chinese nationalists in many cases, reveal an increasing number of Cana- lease of our two hostages but resist the
but equally at home in the world. It dians—70 percent—saying human temptation to tie their fate to China-
will be interesting to watch the in- rights should be more important than U.S. relations, or China’s overall hu-
evitable culture clash between their trade opportunities in Canada’s deal- man rights record. As one of the na-
ebullient international confidence ings with China. tions determined to maintain an
and the xenophobic suspicions of to- international order of agreed rules, we
day’s party leaders. We have had prime may not always be able to take stands
Canada has a long and deep connec- ministers from Pierre that serve immediate Canadian com-
tion with the Chinese people, begin- mercial interests in China. Ensuring
Trudeau to Brian Mulroney
ning with doctors like Norman Bet- the safe return of the two Michaels is
hune and missionaries devoting their
and Jean Chrétien who made one of those occasions.
themselves globally respected
F
lives to medical care and education—
and a mostly unsuccessful religious interlocutors with the or Canada now, our challenge
is to encourage China to move
conversion project. The relationship Chinese leadership. We back from the brink. To per-
grew through massive wheat sales be-
dropped the ball badly under suade Beijing that its interests will
gun by John Diefenbaker during some
very hard years in China. It continued Stephen Harper, recovered always be better served absent con-
briefly with Justin Trudeau, frontation, and that the costs of con-
through Pierre Trudeau’s courageous
frontation would probably be fatal
step in granting diplomatic recogni- and are today at a deeper for the future of the CCP in power if
tion to China half a century ago. We and more challenging they played out militarily. Laying out
have had prime ministers from Pierre
Trudeau to Brian Mulroney and Jean impasse than ever. these benefits to the reputation and
status of China is not “going soft on
Chrétien who made themselves glob-
China.” It’s what is required to avoid
ally respected interlocutors with the
what Kissinger somberly intones as
Chinese leadership. We dropped the
“making the 21st century as tragic
ball badly under Stephen Harper, re-
As intractable as the gap may seem and bloody as the one before.”
covered briefly with Justin Trudeau,
and are today at a deeper and more between Beijing’s sabre rattling and In all our years of nimbly balanc-
challenging impasse than ever. Canadian diplomacy, threatening to ing our relationship with the Sovi-
punish China through sanctions or ets, the Chinese and other authori-
A
s we learned in dealing with visa restrictions will not move Chi- tarian regimes, we know three things
the equally insecure Leonid nese thinking. We need allies, not vol- to be true: quiet diplomacy can work,
Brezhnev and his successors, ume. Setting rules, establishing pro- megaphones can’t; that we need to of-
leaders worried about their survival portionate consequences for breaking fer proof of the benefits that will flow
do not respond well to public threats. them, especially when they happen in from the path we offer, as opposed to
Pressure must be applied, but most ef- Canada, or to Canadians, is a must. the dramatically higher costs of con-
fectively in private and with predict- We should learn from the Australians’ frontation; and finally, that we speak
able regularity and determination. sad experience in this regard. with one voice along with our many
All reports suggest that that is exactly Canada must wrestle with three kinds powerful allies.
the path our new ambassador, Dom- of policy conundrum. In each case, Canada has shown great skill in build-
inic Barton, is pursuing today as he whatever choices are made, they will ing coalitions to win peace and avoid
struggles to find a path that could only be effective if their tools and conflict, even if it is only a violence-
lead to the release of Michael Kovring goals are supported by a network of free frozen peace, in Suez, in Cyprus,
and Michael Spavor in the face of the like-minded nations. We have our na- in South Africa and elsewhere. As
continuing legal battles surrounding tional interests, we have our commer- China and the West move closer to
Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou—quiet, cial interests and we have the defense confrontation, it’s again time we put
relentless pressure. of the values of the international com- those special skills to use.
While public opinion in China on the munity, of which we are a respected
Contributing Writer Robin V. Sears, a
captivity of the two Canadians and leader. The Chinese are attempting, principal of Earnscliffe Strategy Group in
the ongoing conflict over Ms. Wan- however maladroitly, to change the Ottawa, lived and worked in Tokyo as
zhou may be impossible to discern ac- post-war consensus on internation- Ontario’s Agent General for Asia for six
curately, views of China among Cana- al values and law—most egregious- years, and later in the private sector in
dians have changed. An Angus Reid ly with respect to honouring inter- Hong Kong for a further six years.
March/April 202010
The bodies of Ukrainian victims of the Iranian downing of Ukraine Airlines Flight 752 arriving at Kiev airport on January 19, 11 days after the
tragedy also took the lives of 57 Canadian citizens and 29 permanent residents of Canada. The Presidential Office of Ukraine photo
U.S.-Iran Relations:
Lessons for Canada From the Ukraine Airlines Tragedy
The shoot-down of a Ukraine airlines flight that killed Dennis Horak
T
57 Canadians in January was the latest chapter in a de- he shoot-down of a Ukrainian
cades-long legacy of U.S.-Iran tensions marked by tragedy. airlines flight outside Tehran
in January was a reminder of
Canadians paid the heaviest price this time, but it high- how quickly and unpredictably ten-
lighted the need for Canada to fully re-engage in the sions with Iran can tragically esca-
Persian Gulf, however difficult that might be. Dennis late. Simmering hostilities between
the United States and Iran were ig-
Horak, former Canadian head of mission in Tehran and nited, took the region to the brink
later ambassador to Saudi Arabia, shares exceptional in- and the outcome could have been
catastrophic. The incident didn’t be-
sights into the region and Canada’s role there. gin with the assassination of Iranian
General Qassem Soleimani; nor are
tensions likely to end with the subse-
quent walk-back from the edge.
This is a decades-long conflict that
shows no sign of being resolved.
Both sides are driven by fundamen-
Policy11
tally different conceptions of each
other’s goals and motivations. That is
unlikely to change. For Canada, the
incident underscored the reality that
what happens in the Persian Gulf can
reverberate globally and highlighted
the need to be better equipped to ad-
dress those regional eventualities.
Iran’s missile launch against a civil-
ian airliner in January was a trage-
dy with historic roots. The U.S.-Iran
tensions that created the conditions
for the attack have been a fact of life
in the Gulf for decades. For Tehran,
the story tracks back to Washington’s
role in the overthrow of their elect-
ed Prime Minister, Mohammad Mos- Prime Minister Justin Trudeau shakes hands with Iranian Foreign Minister Muhammad Javad Zarif
sadegh, in 1953. For the Americans, on February 14 on the margins of the Munich Security Conference. Trudeau said they discussed
compensation for victims’ surviving families back in Canada. Tehran Times photo
the genesis was the hostage crisis in
1979-80. But whatever the origins,
the U.S.-Iran conflict has produced a
the next flare-up will occur—and the By all accounts, Iran was verifiably
long and grim legacy marked by suc-
January incidents may even have re- complying with the terms of the
cessive catastrophes (including a pre-
stored some level of deterrence—but agreement when Donald Trump de-
vious shootdown of an Iranian civil-
future incidents are a near certainty. cided to the pull the plug. But for the
ian airliner by the U.S. in 1988) and
administration, that was beside the
sustained regional instability.
point. The deal, in its view, was con-
The latest chapter actually began in It’s hard to predict ceptually flawed. Its scope was too
the summer of 2019, with the Iranian where or how the limited and one-sided in Iran’s fa-
bombing of two oil tankers in the Per- next flare-up will occur— vour. The administration’s decision
sian Gulf and an attack on a Saudi oil to withdraw and apply “maximum
and the January incidents pressure” (which included enhanced
refinery. But it was the attack on an
Iraqi military base that killed an Amer- may even have restored sanctions) was aimed at forcing a
ican contractor and wounded sever- some level of deterrence— weakened Iran back to the table to re-
al U.S. service personnel that set the but future incidents are a open and expand the agreement. Iran
key events in motion. Iran was wide- rejected U.S. demands immediately.
near certainty.
ly held responsible for these incidents. It relaunched previously restricted
elements of its nuclear program and
The death of an American was clear- stepped up its kinetic actions in the
ly a red line for the U.S. and they region. The violent events in the Gulf
responded with an unprecedented last summer were intended as a mes-
T
assassination of a senior regime of- sage: If Iran could not sell its oil, they
he proximate cause of the
ficial—Soleimani. While the Iranian had the ability prevent others from
spike in violent incidents over
leadership promised a harsh response, doing so, too.
the past several months can
their retaliation—missile strikes on
be traced back to the Trump admin- While Trump’s withdrawal from the
two U.S. air bases in Iraq—was suffi-
ciently measured to allow both sides istration’s decision in May 2018 to JCPOA was clearly a spark for the re-
to claim victory and climb back from walk away from the Joint Compre- cent flare-up, the JCPOA was never a
the edge. Ironically, it was the cit- hensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), launchpad for an era of U.S.-Iran dé-
izens of a third country, Canada, commonly known as the Iran nu- tente and reconciliation. The JCPOA
who suffered the most from the con- clear agreement. Signed in 2015, the was not meant to be a panacea. It was
frontation when Iran shot down the deal essentially traded restrictions a limited agreement tied narrowly to
Ukraine International Airlines flight on Iran’s nuclear program for lim- one specific item on a rather long list
on January 8, killing 57 Canadians. ited sanctions relief. The agreement of Iran-related grievances. U.S. and
The relatively quiet pause in hostili- was widely lauded for putting the regional concerns about Iran are driv-
ties between Washington and Tehran Iran nuclear problem on the back en as much by Tehran’s support for
since then is likely only a temporary burner, but it had its critics, particu- terrorism, its increasingly sophisti-
lull. It’s hard to predict where or how larly among U.S. Republicans. cated missile program and, especial-
March/April 202012
O
ly, its destabilizing actions across the sense; it is a destabilizing influence in ttawa needs to learn from
Middle East as they were by the nu- a fragile region. But pressure tactics the crisis and realize that Ca-
clear program. Iran’s actions on these aimed at curtailing Iran’s regional ac- nadian interests are best
other files was uninterrupted during tivities or gutting its missile defenc- served by maintaining relations—
the JCPOA period. Its decisive and es, while fomenting domestic unrest even uncomfortable ones—to be
bloody intervention in Syria, its sus- to create bottom-up pressure on the ready to respond when things go
tained manipulation of Iraqi politics leadership, only inflame irredentist badly. This is especially true in a re-
for sectarian advantage, its continued fears and spawn Iranian responses gion as volatile and as populated
support for Hezbollah and Hamas, its that can, as we have seen, quickly spi- with Canadians as the Gulf. There are
backing of the Houthis in Yemen and ral out of control. There are no easy important obstacles to reopening in
its unrelenting hostility to Israel were answers and the differences may, in Iran, with the Justice for Victims of
unaffected by the nuclear agreement. fact, be irreconcilable. Terrorism Act being the principal bar-
Washington’s provocative withdraw- rier. It would be irresponsible to re-
al from the JCPOA and Iran’s reac- turn Canadian diplomats to Tehran
The government with the threat of further seizures of
tion to it added a dangerous layer of
complexity to an already volatile re- managed the Iranian property in Canada under the
gion, but it is was not the source of consular crisis stemming Act hanging over the relationship.
the problem. from the shoot-down as well The risk of Iranian retaliation would
be high given Tehran’s historical dis-
as could be expected under
T
he underlying issues run deep- respect for diplomatic immunity. Re-
er. At their core, U.S.-Iran ten-
the circumstances. But the pairing ties with Saudi Arabia should
sions reflect entrenched per- absence of a Canadian be easier. It will require face-saving
ceptions of their respective goals and diplomatic presence measures for both sides, but that is
motivations. For the U.S., the Islamic undeniably complicated an what diplomats do—when they have
Republic is an inherently destabiliz- the requisite political backing.
already tragic and stressful
ing and malevolent force in the Mid-
dle East; ideologically driven to un- situation for the families. Both moves will be challenging (and
some distance from the shootdown
dermine U.S. interests and influence.
will be needed to move forward with
In their view, Iran’s desire to domi-
Iran). Neither country is popular and
nate the region through support for
opposition to “rewarding” Riyadh
sectarian proxies and terrorist groups
and Tehran by normalizing ties will
is a threat to U.S. assets and allies that So, where does Canada fit-in in all be fierce in some quarters. But it is
must be countered. It is a perspective this? The short answer is, nowhere, worth the effort.
widely shared in the region. really. Ottawa has been blind to
what’s happening in Iran since the The Gulf is a difficult and often frus-
For Tehran, the U.S. is a hostile power
Embassy was closed in 2012 and it trating region. U.S.-Iran tensions (fed
that is determined to overturn the Is-
has been playing short-handed in by and involving regional players like
lamic Revolution (as it has been from
Saudi Arabia since the “tweet-storm” Saudi Arabia) will remain, but the in-
the start) and restore the dominant
in 2018 upended the bilateral rela- ternational community has an obli-
role it had under the Shah. Opposi-
tionship. These are the two key play- gation to try and moderate or manage
tion and resistance to the U.S. was
ers (with the U.S.) in the region and them. As the January events demon-
(and remains) a pillar of the Revolu-
Canada has no relations with one strated, the brink is never far off and
tion and it informs the views of the
and strained links with the other. But the impact of tumbling over it will
Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khame-
the tragic events in January vividly reverberate widely and, likely, tragi-
nei (the only person in the country
underscored the fact that Canada can cally. If Canada fancy’s itself as an
whose views really matter). For the
no longer afford to pretend that what important international player—wor-
regime, Iran’s cultivation of region-
happens in the Gulf stays in the Gulf. thy of G7, G20 and, even UN Securi-
al allies and influence and its efforts
The Gulf matters and it can come up ty Council membership—it would do
to confront Washington’s regional
and bite you in ways you can’t al- well to position itself to act the part
“puppets” and, ultimately, drive the
ways imagine. The government man- in a region with such broad and chal-
U.S. from the region are defensive
aged the consular crisis stemming lenging risks.
measures designed to safeguard the
from the shoot-down as well as could
Revolution and Iranian security. Dennis Horak was Canada’s
be expected under the circumstances. ambassador to Saudi Arabia from
Finding a way around these percep- But the absence of a Canadian diplo- 2015-18 and head of mission/chargé
tions and the behaviours they gener- matic presence undeniably compli- d’affaires in Iran from 2009-12.
ate will be tough. They are self-rein- cated an already tragic and stressful He retired in 2018 after a 31-year
forcing. Containing Iran does make situation for the families. diplomatic career.
Policy13
Letter From Davos:
A POWERFUL TELESCOPE INTO THE FUTURE
Every year, when the world’s most politically and economi- ed by several decades in age, but unit-
ed by their determination and com-
cally engaged leaders gather in Davos for the annual World mitment to save our planet.
Economic Forum meeting, there is a Canadian contingent The objective of creating a carbon
working the hallways and gracing the panels. Since 2016, neutral future was discussed in a ses-
Suzanne Fortier, Principal and Vice-Chancellor of McGill sion that reported the disturbing sta-
tistic that only 33 percent of primary
University, has been part of that contingent. She shares energy is converted into useful energy
her experience and takeaways from the 2020 event. for transport, industry and buildings.
Industry leaders on the panel not only
validated the figure but also promoted
realizing greater efficiency, particular-
Suzanne Fortier meeting was to carve my own Davos.
ly given that technologies required to
The meeting’s program, with its rich
A
s head of an international and diverse choice of sessions, gives do so are already available.
university, I am privileged to each participant the opportunity to
have stimulating conversa- have a unique “personalized” Davos A greater recognition
tions every day, whether with stu- experience.
dents, researchers, partners, or col- among investors
M
leagues from around the world. The y Davos journey this year that climate risk is
discussions held at the World Eco- included topics that piqued investment risk was evident,
nomic Forum (WEF) Annual Meeting my interest such as listen-
as was their anticipation
in Davos are ones I especially look ing to Yo-Yo Ma talk about the pow-
forward to, as I believe that this gath- er of narratives, the annual session of a fundamental reshaping
ering of global stakeholders is a pow- on the Global Economic Outlook and of finance.
erful telescope into the future. a presentation on the recent claim of
quantum supremacy. The majority
I first began attending the WEF An- of my time, however, was devoted to
nual Davos Meetings back in 2016, topics that are much discussed at Mc-
and while every meeting is thought- The release of BlackRock’s annual let-
Gill. I had the chance to participate
provoking, they are also very differ- ter to CEOs, a few weeks ahead of the
on panels that covered important
ent from one year to the next, reflect- meeting, and its observations on cli-
subjects such as education, of course,
ing the main agenda items on the mate change resonated throughout
but also addressed mental health is-
global scene. the meeting. A greater recognition
sues, steps for increasing social inclu-
among investors that climate risk is
sion, and the future of work.
The 2020 Annual Meeting was the investment risk was evident, as was
50th anniversary of the establishment Most would agree that climate change their anticipation of a fundamental
of the WEF and capped off a year that was at the forefront of discussions at reshaping of finance.
was marked by social, economic, and Davos. Very few attendees, if any, de-
geopolitical turmoil with rapidly shift- The Striking a Green “New Deal” ses-
nied that this was a pressing and ur-
ing realities. We saw flare-ups in for- sion brought together politicians who
gent issue concerning us all. But what
eign relations, civil uprisings and discussed “new deal” agreements that
was most interesting was to hear voic-
clashes with governments, uncertain- link goals to combat climate change,
es from so many different roles and
ty about the future of the planet, and, social justice reforms and econom-
perspectives all gathered in one place.
most recently, the spread of a life- ic development. They acknowledged
threatening health epidemic. We heard the voices of activists, from the challenge of bringing people on
Greta Thunberg to Jane Goodall, two board in the transition to a greener
Some wise advice I received be- people featured on TIME’s 2019 list of future. While there may be buy-in
fore attending my first WEF annual the most influential people—separat- on the importance of addressing cli-
March/April 2020You can also read
