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Wuhan virus
Cross-strait ties
Future of news
MCI(P) 087/05/2019 February 2020
INDEPENDENT • INSIDER • INSIGHTS ON ASIA
Best New Print Product and Best News Brand in Asia-Pacific,
International News Media Association (INMA) Global Media Awards 2019
ST writers look to the decade ahead, with their hopes,
wishes and the challenges that they believe the world will face.
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Data Digest
Rise of women leaders
Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen’s win has drawn world’s youngest serving prime minister when she
attention to the growing number of women was sworn in on Dec 10. And earlier, in 2019, Sophie
world leaders. Singapore boasts President Wilmes became the first woman Prime Minister of
Halimah Yacob, while, in the Asia-Pacific, New Belgium while Zuzana Caputová took charge as the
Zealand’s President Jacenda Ardern has been first female president of Slovakia.
drawing attention to her leadership style since Here’s a look at women leaders using their
the Christchurch bombings. positions to make a difference to their commu-
Elsewhere, last year Sanna Marin became the nities in the political world.
Katrin Jakobsdottir Zuzana Caputova Sanna Marin
Prime Minister, Iceland President, Slovakia PrimeMinister, Finland
Assumed office: 2017 Assumed office: 2019 Sworn-in Dec 10
Jakobsdottir wants to make Despite being a political The world’s youngest female head of
Iceland a leader in climate action, newcomer with close to no government has been focusing on promoting
with an ambitious plan to make the political experience, Caputova won gender equality in Finland.
country carbon neutral by 2040 Slovakia’s elections last year with a
campaign focusing on a struggle
for justice. Kolinda Grabar-Kitarovic
President, Croatia
Mette Frederikson Assumed office: 2015
Prime Minister, Denmark Erna Solberg Currently running for a
Assumed office: 2019 Prime Minister, presidential re-election
Frederikson won elections Norway Kersti Kaljulaid this year, Ms
by supporting tough Assumed office: 2013 President, Estonia Grabar-Kitarovic is a former
restrictions on immigrants in Denmark. Ms Solberg won over a Assumed office: assistant secretary-general of Nato.
re-election in 2017 by spending 2016
huge amounts of oil wealth to Kaljulaid is the first
Sophie Wilmes support Norway’s economy after female president of Tsai Ing-wen
Prime Minister, Belgium she assumed office in 2013. Estonia. President, Taiwan
Assumed office: 2019 Assumed office: 2016
Belgium’s first female Re-elected President Tsai
person to become the head Ing-wen is known for her
of government, she replaced pro-independence rhetoric towards
former Prime Minister Charles Taiwan’s relationship with mainland
Michel after a coalition he China.
headed collapsed.
Halimah Yacob
Angela Merkel President, Singapore
Chancellor, Germany
Assumed office: 2017
Assumed office: 2005 President Halimah Yacob is Singapore’s
The politician has topped first female president after running for
Forbes’ most powerful women presidency in the 2017 presidential
list nine times and boosted elections.
Germany’s economy, even despite
the global financial crisis.
Saara Kuugongelwa-
Amadhila Jacinda Ardern
Ana Brnabic Prime Minister, Namibia Prime Minister, New Zealand
Prime Minister, Serbia Assumed office: 2015 Assumed office: 2017
Assumed office: 2017 After coming back from exile, Youngest leader of New Zealand Jacinda
Brnabic is the first female and Kuugongelwa-Amadhila is the first woman Ardern almost single-handedly brought her
first openly gay Prime Minister of to serve as Prime Minister of Namibia. Labour party to government after taking over
traditionally conservative Serbia. its leadership.
Sahle-Work Zewde Bidhya Devi Sheikh Hasina Wajed
President, Ethiopia Bhandari Prime Minister, Bangladesh
Assumed office: 2018 President, Nepal 1996 – 2001, Assumed office: 2009
Prior to her appointment as Assumed office: 2015 Sheikh Hasina is the longest serving prime
Ethiopia’s first female president, Bhandari’s political career began minister in the history of Bangladesh. An ongoing
Sahle-Work Zewde was the UN’s top official from a Leftist student union. struggle of Hasina has been establishing a firm
at the African Union. democracy in Bangladesh.
NOTE: Aung San Suu Kyi is Myanmar’s de facto leader but Source: AFP PHOTOS: AFP, ST PHOTO KHALID BABA TEXT: DOMINIQUE NELSON
her official role is that of State Counsellor (similar to Prime Minister) STRAITS TIMES GRAPHICS
1
Warren Fernandez
Editor-in-Chief, The Straits
Times & SPH’s English, Malay
and Tamil Media (EMTM) Group
Sumiko Tan
Executive Editor,
The Straits Times
Dominic Nathan
Managing Editor, EMTM
Tan Ooi Boon
Senior Vice-President, EMTM
Paul Jacob
Associate Editor,
The Straits Times
Eugene Leow
Head, Digital Strategy, EMTM
Irene Ngoo
Vice-President
(Editorial Projects Unit) EMTM
Jeremy Au Yong
Foreign Editor
Shefali Rekhi
Asia News Network Editor,
41
The Straits Times &
Editor, ST Asia Report
DESIGN
Peter Williams
Head, Visual, EMTM &
Art Editor, The Straits Times
Chng Choon Hiong
Cover illustration
Marlone Rubio East Asia
Executive Artist
Time to rethink
Gareth Chung
Senior Executive Artist basis for cross-strait
Anil Kumar engagement
Graphic Artist
EDITORIAL DESK
ST ILLUSTRATION: CEL GULAPA
Ronald Kow
Sub-editor, The Straits Times
Dominique Nelson
Journalist, The Straits Times
CIRCULATION
Eric Ng
Head, Circulation Marketing
Tommy Ong
Senior Manager (Circulation)
4 Cover Story
Rediscovering our common
humanity in a divided world 14 Trade Watch
US-China trade truce: Will it last?
From the Asian dragon to the
Tiger of the golf links
17
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Mandy Wong Trade peace still a distance away Why the Wuhan virus may be
Head - Customer Action
Teams/Jobs worse than Sars
mandyw@sph.com.sg
Circulation & subscription:
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Sofia Wang
Executive China Watch
sofwang@sph.com.sg China’s woes set to deepen
in 2020
WE WELCOME YOUR FEEDBACK
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Letters can be sent to
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stasiareport@sph.com.sg
Singapore
Published by
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contents
35 Country Report
Goodbye, India.
Hello, Hindustan?
PHOTO: REUTERS
28 South-east Asia
For investors in Myanmar, it’s a
slow road to riches 44 ST Anniversary
ST turns 175!
32 Special Report
1MDB scandal: Fugitive Jho
Low tells ST he was just an
intermediary
38 Country Report
Carlos Ghosn’s brazen
disappearing act leaves
46 Future of News
Finding our way forward to the
future of quality journalism
questions unanswered
50 Lifestyle
Celeb offspring to watch
52 Big Picture
New Tokyo stadium all set
for the 2020 Olympics
3
ST ILLUSTRATIONS: MIEL
Cover Story
Rediscovering our
common humanity
in a divided world
From climate change to smartphone addiction, fake news to
WARREN the workplace revolution, ST writers lay out the new decade’s
FERNANDEZ
Editor-in-Chief challenges and their hopes and wishes
THREE CHALLENGES Ordinarily, the re-emergence of China, shaking
off at last the poverty and isolation of the past,
1. CHINA-US RIFT SPLITS WORLD should be something that everyone might celebrate.
But alas, a deep ideological divide has emerged
Decoupling – that icy, or perhaps worse, a
– some would say, is being stoked – between China
warren@sph.com.sg fiery, splitting up between two who are inherently
and the United States and those who share a belief
inseparable, with all the nasty side effects that
in the liberal global order that has given the world
entails. This ugly word, I fear, could become the
so much peace and prosperity since World War II.
leitmotif of the decade just begun, writ large on
That puts the two rival powers potentially at odds,
the world stage.
4 ASIA REPORT February 2020
and fundamentally so. The sunny lands once pointed human. If we can learn to appreciate the joys of being,
to by Sino-US leaders, of a more integrated world, treasure the humanity we share, find commonalities
now look ever more distant indeed. in our hopes and dreams, perhaps the challenges
It will take much wisdom all round to navigate this mentioned above might yet be surmountable.
tricky transition, and avoid an unfortunate divide.
The trouble is, wisdom seems to be in worryingly 2. THINK, READ... IN ORDER TO BE
short supply at this time of rising populist pulls and What makes us human stems from our ability
pressures. The signs of the decoupling everyone to think for ourselves, even if machines might do
dreads appear to be taking hold. it more efficiently. What helps us to think is our
What makes us
readiness to read, to gather information and insights human stems
2. TOO HOT TO HANDLE for ourselves, even if algorithms might serve these from our ability
A divided world will make tackling the growing up more readily. Yes, doing so will take more time, to think for
climate crisis even more difficult. Countries which and effort – and perhaps not always yield as much
should be working together to address this global immediate pleasure – but being ready, able and
ourselves, even
challenge will be too distracted by ideological, willing to exercise our minds makes us who we if machines
geopolitical, economic and military considerations are, with the capacity to reflect, react and respond. might do it
to put the longer-term needs of future generations Technology is making our lives more convenient. more efficiently.
ahead of more immediate concerns of who’s up and Yet, something is lost if pilots can’t fly planes What helps us
who’s down. without autopilot, drivers can’t navigate to their
So, if the recent heatwaves and floods all seem to destinations without GPS, leaders can’t lead or to think is our
have become more extreme by the year, we might decide without checking the polls, while families readiness to
have to brace ourselves for worse to come, going by and friends – even lovers – sit around the dinner read, to gather
the consensus among climate scientists, who have table but are focused on their phones. information
been warning of this for some time now. A vicious
climate change circle might thus emerge: As the 3. MORE PURPOSE, LESS PROFITS and insights for
world heats up, and the window closes for curbing In a world of facts and alternative facts, fake news ourselves, even
the greenhouse gases that are contributing to that, and deepfakes, things are not always what they if algorithms
the scale of the response that might be needed grows seem. That sets the stage for politicians who seek might serve
ever larger, making it harder and harder to win the to whip up populist sentiments – offering quick-
public support needed for action.
these up more
fix, soundbite solutions – and facilitate efforts by
players abroad to sway voters and shape democratic readily. Yes,
3. TECH WE NEVER DREAMED OF outcomes far afield. doing so will
New technologies, however, might yet be found The answer to this is, of course, to foster more take more time,
to tackle some of our pressing challenges, including trust – building and reinforcing our institutions, and effort -
the climate one. giving them the support they need, politically as
Not so long ago, phones were neither mobile nor well as financially, to survive and thrive. This ranges and perhaps
smart. Computers were neither cheap nor ubiquitous from government and the civil service, to the courts not always
and equipped with the sort of processing power and our schools, and even the media. If we assume yield as much
we carry around in our pockets today. If anyone these can be had on the cheap – or worse, for free immediate
had painted a scenario of people going about their – we will end up paying a heavy price ultimately,
everyday lives glued to their smartphones, checking when these trusted pillars of our society are chipped
pleasure - but
their e-mail and social-media feeds constantly, at and whittled down over time. being ready,
forming relations with posts, swipes and tweets, it To safeguard our institutions, we need leaders able and willing
would have been seen as either comic or dystopian. and societies to focus less on short-term politics and to exercise our
Yet that is the (virtual) reality of today. profits, and have their minds fixed instead on the
Similarly, as our information and data-processing longer term and larger purpose of their enterprise,
minds makes us
powers grow, new technologies we have yet to both in business and politics. who we are, with
imagine will no doubt emerge, giving rise to new the capacity to
products and processes, as well as social and political THREE WISHES reflect, react
challenges to come. The pace of technological change
– and economic disruption – is likely to accelerate,
That Singapore will be fortunate enough to and respond.
have another smooth political transition to a new
with upsides and downsides that communities will generation of capable, honest and dedicated leaders,
have to grapple with. just as the two previous ones have been, thankfully.
To treasure that one totally non-renewable
THREE HOPES resource – time – and find ways to make more of
this precious gift, to nurture family and friendships,
1. BECOMING MORE HUMAN and savour the poetry and music in our Everyday
As technology evolves and spreads, and shapes Life, as Coldplay’s Chris Martin says.
our lives in untold ways, my greatest hope is that our To be alive, fit and healthy, thus able to revel in
societies come to rediscover our common humanity, the celebrations to mark the 200th anniversary of
and learn to appreciate ever more what makes us The Straits Times on July 15, 2045.
5
From the Asian
dragon to the Tiger of
the golf links
RAVI VELLOOR THREE CHALLENGES
Associate Editor
1. STAYING ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE
GREAT DECOUPLING
There is little question that the United States and
China, having arrived at a key fork in the road of
history, have decided to travel in separate directions.
This places severe challenges before every Asian
state because China is a close neighbour that is not
velloor@sph.com.sg only a top trading partner for most, but increasingly,
an investor too. On the other hand, the US-led West
is a geographical construct.
China initially thrived as a manufacturer of the Finding time – for work, play and family – amid the
wonderful goods being innovated in the West. Now, streaming wars (and social media) is going to be a
it needs to do more of its own innovation. The jury is major challenge.
still out on whether China can stand on its own legs
as an innovation-and research-driven powerhouse. THREE HOPES
For the rest of Asia, negotiating these currents is
likely to be the central challenge of our times. 1. CHINA MODERATES ITS ASSERTIVENESS
Living in the Living in the centre of Asia, with tensions
2. KEEPING YOUR HEAD WHEN ALL ABOUT swirling to the north-east and to the west, there’d
centre of Asia, ARE LOSING THEIRS be no greater prayer than to have a China acting
with tensions If tuberculosis and malaria were the key health as benevolent overlord rather than regional bully,
swirling to the challenges of the 19th and 20th centuries, mental sticking its finger in eye after Asian eye.
north-east and health will likely emerge as the key health issue of At the same time, it would do wonders if China
the decade in Asia. The breakup of joint families, – and to its credit, it already has begun to do so –
to the west, the swift march of forces including automation tweaked its Belt and Road Initiative plans to benefit
there’d be no and artificial intelligence, combined with the fear the recipient countries more than itself, and what
greater prayer of losing jobs even as you need to stay employed is more, added a public healthcare component to it.
than to have a longer because of lengthening lifespans, are causing Still, while China may make some tactical
a tornado of doubt and despair to rise in people’s adjustments as it rounds to see off the US challenge
China acting minds. Sociologists call this a state of anomie. to its regional dominance, the long-term trajectory
as benevolent Keeping a cool head in these troubling times may is less promising and that means tensions with
overlord rather prove to be one of the central challenges of the day. Japan and India, and now, Indonesia, are unlikely
than regional to go away.
bully, sticking 3. TIME MANAGEMENT
If you thought the hectivities of life are keeping 2. CLAMPDOWN ON PLASTICS
its finger in eye you from being more active on social media – The widespread use of plastics has resulted in
after Asian eye. Facebook, LinkedIn, Twitter and more – and doing a frightening environmental problem. More than
enough of your favourite sport, and sleep, well – too 80 per cent of the water that is drunk apparently
bad. It’s going to get worse. contains plastic fibre and, annually, some 8 million
There’s never been a better time to be a couch tonnes of plastic is flung into the ocean. Yet, only
potato, with streaming services offering a wide range one in seven of the plastic packaging that we use
of entertainment and investing more and more in is recycled.
what are broadly themed Originals. Hopefully, governments will act to curb this
A resurgent Disney is now vigorously taking menace and penalise the polluters and companies,
on Netflix, expecting to add 25 million viewers by and those that lend to them will walk the talk on
March this year. promoting sustainability.
It is a matter of time before you get more Asian A related hope: Governments de-emphasise gross
content on these platforms with locales and plots domestic product growth and focus on standard of
set in Pakistan, China, the Philippines and Vietnam. living and quality of life. The good news: Millennials
6 ASIA REPORT February 2020
are very sensitive to environmental issues and projecting vast and diverse India as a nation of
keenest about leaving the planet a better place Hindus, potentially setting back 70 years of nation-
than they found it. building and triggering intense insecurity within the
minorities, particularly the 180 million Muslims of
3. MAY NEWSPAPERS NEVER DIE the country. An India in decline would be a setback
With digital platforms slicing and dicing not only to Asia, but the world too.
audiences, and serving niche communities of
interest, there never has been a more important
time for general-interest newspapers, aggregating 2. U.N. TO THE FORE
a variety of news for all ages, economic strata and As strategic competition intensifies, space is the
professions, to thrive. next frontier of jostling and it is imperative that
A well-curated newspaper reflects the broad just like Unclos for the oceans, you need to set
world in all its glory and warts, and is the medium commonly accepted rules of the road in space and
where the community, church and state find its use. Without it, space would be like a highway
confluence. Here’s hoping that societies rediscover where one side of the road is lit up while traffic in
the merits of having strong newspapers. the other lane moves in darkness. Let’s hope the
United Nations steps in!
THREE WISHES
3. TIGER, BURNING BRIGHT
1. MODI DROPS HINDUTVA LINE Settling into middle age, golf legend Tiger Woods
Six years ago, as Mr Narendra Modi took power has only so many years left to compete at the apex
in India, the hope was that the South Asian giant of his sport. So, here’s hoping that in the next three
would finally hit its stride and become a global pillar years Tiger wins three more major championships to
of growth. Today, that hope is turning to despair draw level with his boyhood idol, Jack Nicklaus. To
and steadily lowering growth projections. Worse, achieve that, he will need his famously laser focus.
the Modi government seems to be hell-bent on Here’s a tip, champ: Keep your eye on the ball.
Trade peace still a distance away
AS WE ENTER 2020, WE NEED TO BRACE OURSELVES trade agreement between the US and China was a VIKRAM KHANNA
for another year of trade tensions. The United States nice Christmas present for the markets and looks Associate Editor
and China are enjoying a truce, but the chances are promising on paper.
this will be temporary. If all goes well, the two sides could move on to
Any trade disputes between the two – and there negotiating a “phase two” trade deal.
is a long list – will need to be sorted out bilaterally, But there are at least two reasons to believe that
because the body that normally handles such the phase one truce is fragile. For a start, and with
disputes, the World Trade Organisation (WTO), its economy slowing, China’s import commitments
has been marginalised, which is another problem. are demanding.
In Europe, we have greater clarity on Brexit, To fulfil them, it might need to give preferential
a near certainty now after Britain’s pro-Brexit treatment to US products at the expense of those vikram@sph.com.sg
Conservative Party’s resounding electoral victory from other countries, which would be a violation
in December. of WTO rules.
But the terms for Britain’s departure from the Second, although the measures China has
European Union (EU) – supposedly by the end of pledged are in its own interest, its progress in
this year – are still up in the air. implementing them – many of which will be open
It’s not all doom and gloom. On the positive side, to subjective judgment – will be assessed not by
Asian countries will push on with the negotiations any independent or impartial body like the WTO,
on the Regional Comprehensive Economic as should be the case, but by the US. So, a party to
Partnership which will create the world’s largest the trade dispute will also be the judge.
trade bloc; the EU will explore free-trade deals with US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer
Asean countries following its landmark FTA with has stressed that China would need to meet its
Singapore, which took effect from Nov 21; and commitments “right down to every detail”.
China, Japan and South Korea may move ahead Any perceived slippage could be met by a re-
with a trilateral trade agreement. imposition of tariffs, which could unravel the phase
But the trade dispute involving the world’s two one agreement.
largest economies will continue to cast a shadow During a US election year, with anti-China
on the global economy. The so-called “phase one” sentiment running high – both among Democrats
7
and Republicans – trade policy will be driven by
politics even more than usual.
THE TRADE LAW OF THE JUNGLE
Another risk to the global trading system is
that the WTO is in a state of crisis. Since Dec 11,
its appellate body, the equivalent of its “supreme
court” which hears appeals against decisions taken
by dispute settlement panels – the equivalent of
lower courts – has been rendered dysfunctional.
Whereas a minimum of three judges are needed
to hear appeals, there is now only one judge left on
the appellate body, because the US has, since 2017,
been blocking the appointment of new judges.
So any appeal to decisions taken by dispute
settlement panels can no longer be heard.
This means that trade disputes will be impossible
to resolve, if any party to them lodges an appeal. This
opens the way for countries to resort to unilateral
measures not sanctioned by international law to
address trade grievances.
In short, what we now have is the trade law of the
Another risk jungle, which works in favour of powerful countries
to the global – although disputes between them, too, would be
trading system in danger of spiralling out of control as unilateral It would be all but impossible to cover all these
is that the WTO actions are met with retaliation and counter- issues, plus get the agreement – if there is one –
retaliation, as we have seen last year between the
is in a state of US and China, and the US and the EU.
ratified by 27 EU member states within 12 months.
While a no-deal Brexit cannot be ruled out, the
crisis. Since The EU and some countries are trying to set up a most likely scenario is a partial deal – the only
Dec 11, its parallel body to adjudicate on disputes that would question is how partial it will be.
appellate body, mimic the WTO’s appellate process, but unless Taken aback by Britain’s rigid stance, the EU has
the equivalent countries agree to abide by its rulings – and the indicated that it will have to prioritise. Its Director-
US, at least, is unlikely to do so – the effectiveness General for Trade Sabine Weyand has said: “We have
of its “supreme of any parallel body would be limited. to look at those issues where failure to reach an
court” which agreement by end-2020 would lead to a cliff-edge
hears appeals NEW BREXIT UNCERTAINTIES situation” – in other words, only the most serious
against With Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s withdrawal issues, from its own point of view.
agreement (WA) with the EU having been passed by The EU is determined to ensure that there will
decisions taken the British Parliament, the stage was set for Brexit be no regulatory arbitrage and will try to prevent
by dispute to happen on Jan 31. While the markets initially Britain from deviating far from the EU’s regulatory
settlement read this as good news – there was finally clarity standards and thereby gaining an unfair advantage
panels - the on whether Brexit will happen – a closer look at Mr over EU companies.
equivalent of Johnson’s WA raised serious concerns. For Britain, services – which account for around
The main issue relates to the transition period, 80 per cent of its GDP – will be top priority, but it
lower courts during which Britain will remain in the EU’s customs may not get top priority in the negotiations.
- has been union – retaining its existing trade privileges – The upshot of a partial trade deal will mean that
rendered pending a trade agreement between the two. The this year, companies, farmers, bankers, fishermen
dysfunctional. new WA prohibits extending the transition period and other workers in both Britain and the EU will
beyond one year. In other words, Britain will leave be left guessing as to what their future will be. This
the EU on Dec 31, 2020, no matter what – whether is especially the case for those in Britain, which
there is a deal, a partial deal or no deal. Mr Johnson depends on the EU for almost half of its trade.
is gambling that this tight and rigid deadline will, Mr Johnson’s gamble on Brexit has created new
as he put it, “strengthen our negotiating position”. uncertainties. The bitter debate in Britain will
It’s a hugely risky gamble. continue – this time, not so much on Brexit itself,
The issues to be negotiated between Britain but on its terms, and how people will be affected.
and the EU are vast and complex. They include So trade tensions will persist, although taking
not only the terms of market access for goods different forms. While there is a good prognosis
and services, but also competition rules, labour for intra-Asian trade in 2020, the same cannot be
and environmental standards, state assistance to said of trade between the world’s major economies
businesses, financial regulation, fishing rights, – which will also affect Asia.
intellectual property rights and more. We are still far away from trade peace.
8 ASIA REPORT February 2020Opportunities on
tech front, but also
a bumpy ride
BY THE END OF 2019, THE TECH WORLD HAD IRENE THAM
learnt two things. Senior Tech
First, be prepared for a bumpy ride when standing Correspondent
on the shoulders of two warring giants.
Second, those who hold the keys to unlock the
possibilities of bleeding-edge technologies like
artificial intelligence (AI) and 5G hold the keys to
the future and progress.
These lessons, which are also closely intertwined,
will set the tone for 2020 and beyond.
AI and 5G technologies were in the spotlight itham@sph.com.sg
when trade tensions between China and the United
States escalated last year. ST ILLUSTRATION: MANNY FRANCISCO
They will remain as bargaining chips as the
dispute continues into 2020 – a momentary truce
notwithstanding. alternate hardware universe with its own supply
It’s not hard to understand why AI and 5G were chain, Huawei has been ramping up production of
singled out – although on paper the concerns were 5G chips with integrated modems to wean itself off
of cyber espionage and human rights. AI and 5G foreign third parties like Intel, Qualcomm, Xilinx
are expected to stage the next industrial revolution and Broadcom.
which will welcome new realities like self-driving In other words, expect another bumpy year in
cars, remote surgery and smart cities complete with 2020. If the world ends up with two hardware and Nations
smart power grids, e-surveillance and payments software ecosystems, connectivity and how business may have to
by facial scans. Nations with the keys to these is transacted around the world could be affected. deal with a
technologies hold the keys to the future. But exciting times also lie ahead. Millions of
dollars are being committed by governments in
situation in
As expected, top Chinese tech firms including
facial recognition specialists SenseTime and Yitu, countries such as Canada, China, France, Israel, which systems
video surveillance tool maker Hikvision and 5G Germany, South Korea, Japan and Singapore to developed by
mobile equipment maker Huawei have been invest in AI research and talent. US companies
blocked from trading with the US in what some What is to be expected are breakthroughs in may not work
experts believe will momentarily slow down China’s fields like medicine, for instance, to interpret
technological progress. computed tomography scans or smartphone images with those
The tech sanctions created their first casualty: the to accurately predict one’s likelihood of having created by
Huawei Mate 30 smartphone launched globally late lung cancer or eye diseases. Early detection allows Chinese firms
last year. It came without Google apps and services, for early intervention. Plus, AI allows for greater - if the trade
but instead runs on Huawei’s in-house developed efficiency as analysis can be done at scale.
operating system. Just as Amazon, Airbnb and Uber disrupted war leads to
Nations may have to deal with a situation in the retail, hospitality and ride-hailing industries, separate and
which systems developed by US companies may respectively, it is hoped that medical AI will do the incompatible
not work with those created by Chinese firms – if same for the healthcare sector by bringing down technologies
the trade war leads to separate and incompatible operational costs and widening its reach.
technologies being developed. Millions of dollars will also be poured into
being
A splintered tech world is not totally unfamiliar 5G network rollouts to allow ultra-fast, no-lag developed.
to most people. China has already created an connectivity to be more widespread. This year, large-
alternate universe for apps and services behind scale 5G commercial launches can be expected in
its great firewall, designed to keep out foreign firms’ South Korea, Japan, China, the United States and
influence on domestic tech consumption. Europe. The Tokyo 2020 Olympics will showcase new
For instance, Baidu is the equivalent of Google for uses of 5G, with live broadcasts featuring 360-degree
online search activities in China, while Weibo rivals ultra-high definition footage of athletes’ moves.
micro-blogging platform Twitter. The Chinese have It is noteworthy that just a decade ago, technology
also created Renren, which is similar to Facebook. was mostly relegated to a back-room function. The
If the events of 2019 taught China anything, it disruptive force of technology is more keenly felt
is to be self-reliant. As if heralding a future for an today than ever before. There is no turning back.
9Keeping roads and
animals safe, and
dementia at bay
SUMIKO TAN
Executive Editor THREE CHALLENGES
1. 4G AND SINGAPOREANS
Singapore has had only three prime ministers
since self-governance in 1959. Within the next
couple of years, it will see its fourth PM leading a
fourth-generation (4G) team.
This being Singapore, political transition has
been planned and orderly. The people expected to
sumiko@sph.com.sg lead are known faces, as are their track records in
government.
Still, the country is in for politically interesting
times.
The style of the first generation of leaders was from work – no checking e-mail or taking calls
paternalistic – do as I say because I know what’s – outside of working hours. In 2018, a ban on
best for you. In those early nation-building times, smartphones in schools was put in place.
Singaporeans generally went along with what was Ultimately, as in other addictions, you can fight
decreed. smartphone addiction only if you acknowledge it
The second and third generations were more to be a problem and want to change. The choice is
consensual in their style and sought more buy-in in our hands.
Will the team from the electorate.
be able to What will history say of the 4G? THREE HOPES
Will the team be able to demonstrate the
demonstrate leadership required in an increasingly messy and 1. THAT WE BECOME A SOCIETY THAT
the leadership fractious world, yet also recognise that, more and TREATS FOREIGN WORKERS WELL
required in an more, Singaporeans want to have a big say in how Singapore has more than 500,000 construction
increasingly Singapore is shaped, and can’t bear being lectured and domestic workers doing the physical work
messy and to? Singaporeans don’t want to do.
Some of their living conditions leave much to be
fractious 2. COPING WITH DISRUPTION desired. I hope more can be done by their employers
world, yet also From self-driving cars to lab-grown meat, we’re to make sure they are housed in better conditions
recognise that, living in a period where science and technology and get more nutritious food. Might there also
more and more, are changing the way we know the world and at be a need to review the Employment of Foreign
breakneck speed. It’s exciting but also frightening. Manpower Act to ensure this happens?
Singaporeans In the area of work especially, jobs – our own jobs
want to have a – will change or disappear because of automation 2. THAT PEOPLE ARE MORE CAREFUL ON
big say in how and artificial intelligence. THE ROAD
Singapore is Workers will need to acquire new skills – a mantra Rarely a day goes by without a heartbreaking
shaped, and easier said than done. How well this is managed road accident posted on Facebook. While Singapore
will be one of the biggest challenges for Singapore. is low on the list of countries with the most road
can’t bear being accident deaths – Libya, Thailand and Malawi topped
lectured to? 3. BATTLING SMARTPHONE ADDICTION one list I came across – my hope is that road users
Compulsive use of smartphones can affect our exercise greater care.
sleep, relationships, productivity and health – not
to mention how it’s downright dangerous to use 3. THAT JOSEPH SCHOOLING WINS
your phone when you drive. (In the United States, ANOTHER OLYMPIC MEDAL
cellphone use while driving reportedly leads to 1.6 Who can forget the moment Joseph Schooling
million crashes each year. ) won gold for Singapore at the Rio Olympics in 2016.
What can be done about this addiction? The pressure is on him in Tokyo this year. One also
France has tried to tackle the problem. In 2017, hopes that if things don’t turn out his way, he will
lawmakers gave people the legal right to disconnect be gracious about it.
10 ASIA REPORT February 2020THREE WISHES climate change might – but how I wish for more
days of cooler weather in Singapore, like the spate
1. MORE HELP FOR ANIMAL SHELTERS last month where temperatures dipped to 23 deg C.
At last count, there are about 12 animal shelters
3. LEARN AN INSTRUMENT
here. It’s difficult, unglamorous work and they face
challenges like high cost and space constraints. According to the Institute of Mental Health, one
The groups rely mostly on donations and fund- in 10 people aged above 60 here has dementia, and
raising to do their good work. half of those above 85 are afflicted with it.
I wish some benefactor/s will bequeath them This means there were an estimated 82,000
dream-come-true sums, that the HDB relaxes its no- patients in 2018, with the number expected to go
cats policy (which might lead to fewer strays), and beyond 100,000 by 2030.
that more Singaporeans realise that senior animals Studies have found that stimulating the brain is
are beautiful and worth adopting. one way to stave off dementia. By some accounts,
learning to play a musical instrument does this.
2. COOLER WEATHER I’d quit the piano when I was younger. In the
name of holding off dementia, I intend to relearn
Wishing isn’t going to do anything – maybe
it this year.
Uphill fight to fix
fraying of trust, avoid
polarisation
A TAX ON WHATSAPP CALLS. ZAKIR HUSSAIN
A rise in metro fares. News Editor
Proposals to overhaul pensions.
Ordinarily, these measures might not have
caused a stir.
But when they were introduced in Lebanon, Chile
and France in recent months, amid a worsening
economic climate, they fuelled nationwide protests
that are set to persist well into this year.
Concerns over the cost of living and retirement,
and growing disaffection with unpopular policies zakirh@sph.com.sg
and governments, have fuelled protests in many
other societies, from Honduras to Hong Kong.
But underpinning these demonstrations is a more
systemic development: Trust in elected politicians
and institutions is fraying in many societies, as
the compact between people and leaders, between participation in economic decision-making and
workers and employers, and between groups in decentralised public services.
society, comes under strain. But not all fiscal requests can be granted, and
Driving this disaffection is a cocktail of factors: the recent breakdown of weeks of talks on pension
The stagnation of incomes over the past decade reform saw a nationwide strike crippling transport
or so, a sense that the benefits of growth are not networks and cities.
being fairly shared, as well as widespread sentiment Mr Macron has stuck to his guns, vowing in his
that inequality is growing and social mobility is new year’s address to carry out the pension overhaul
declining. that will raise the eligibility age for full pensions
Following the wave of Yellow Vest protests early from 62 to 64.
last year, French President Emmanuel Macron However, he also called for the “path of a quick
embarked on his “Great National Debate”, a compromise” with unions, stressing the new system
consultative platform which included public forums will be fairer to all and financially sustainable, and
for mayors and citizens to listen to one another saying: “My only compass is our country’s interest.”
and find common cause in a bid to build a new It will be an uphill task for him to regain citizens’
social contract. trust this year.
The result included tax cuts, greater public Other societies have been watching these
11developments with concern, and working on ways shape policies under the Singapore Together effort.
to avoid making similar missteps and renew the A much harder challenge ahead, especially in
Concerns social contract with a new generation of voters. an election year, is preventing and pushing back
over the cost In Singapore, in a speech in September, Deputy against political polarisation.
of living and Prime Minister Heng Swee Keat noted that the As in many societies elsewhere, some of this
retirement, country has so far been spared the full force of polarisation has been fuelled by the rapid spread
challenges such as widening inequality, a growing of disinformation online, itself abetted by the likes
and growing divide between generations, and deepening political of Facebook and Twitter.
disaffection polarisation. “But we are not immune to them,” he The 2016 United States election was a prime
with unpopular cautioned. target of attempts to sow discord through fake news,
policies and Expect this year’s Budget to continue the and voter polarisation will likely deepen ahead of
significant policy shifts Singapore has embarked November’s vote.
governments, on in recent years – heavy investments in pre-school It is a global concern.
have fuelled education to give every child a good head start in In a recent article, political watcher Alison
protests in life, topping up incomes of the bottom 30 per cent Goldsworthy of the Depolarisation Project and
many other of workers to temper the harsh outcomes of the former British MP Julian Huppert suggest several
market, and ensuring some form of equity across ways to arrest polarisation.
societies, from the generations. One entails slowing down the pace of online news
Honduras to Expect, too, Singapore’s fourth generation of media, by finding ways to reduce the retweeting and
Hong Kong. political leaders to continue engaging citizens from sharing of social media posts.
different backgrounds and bringing them together to There are no easy solutions.
Out of the flames of climate change comes hope
WELCOME TO 2020. THIS IS THE START more efficient economies powered by
of a decade that will determine how renewable energy, electric transport and
DAVID FOGARTY severe climate change will become. zero-polluting industry.
Climate Change Editor And 2020 will be the year that will Change is happening, just not fast
make or break climate diplomacy. enough. More than 60 nations have
It is likely to be a bumpy ride. pledged to become carbon neutral by
Weather disasters are becoming more 2050, green finance and investment in
extreme and the world lacks unity renewable energy are growing and nations
in taking the urgent steps needed are implementing steps to incentivise
to tackle an escalating emergency. emissions cuts.
The good news is that the The past year is likely to have been
bad news might finally prompt the second or third warmest on record,
dfogarty@sph.com.sg
positive change in 2020. according to provisional figures released
Extreme weather, from fires by the World Meteorological Organisation
to floods to droughts and storms, (WMO). That would mean five of the
is affecting people in rich and poor warmest years have occurred since 2015. The
nations. While the record bush-fire crisis planet has already warmed, on average, 1.1 deg C
in Australia isn’t wholly caused by climate change, since pre-industrial times, according to the WMO.
it has helped prime the conditions for the fires by Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong stressed the
fuelling a record drought and record temperatures. threat from rising sea levels in his National Day
Globally, climate protest movements came of Rally speech last year.
age in 2019, driven by youth angry and frightened The sea level around Singapore could rise by
about the future. The youth movement looks set around 1m by the end of the century and protecting
to grow in 2020, further pressuring businesses and the nation could cost $100 billion, possibly more.
policymakers. The recent COP25 climate talks in Madrid failed
Singapore held its first climate rally last to make decisions on key issues, leaving them for
September, leading the Government to recognise the next major talks in Glasgow towards the end
the importance of youth in driving change. of this year. By any measure the Glasgow gathering
Governments and businesses need to band will be decisive in the global battle against climate
together to act quickly and decisively on the change. It will be measured by two words: unity
economic transformation needed to clean and and ambition.
ST ILLUSTRATION:
CEL GULAPA green the global economy. More and more evidence Failure in the Scottish city will set back global
is emerging of the economic benefits of cleaner, climate diplomacy for years.
12 ASIA REPORT February 2020Of unicorns, storks
and embracing the
joy of missing out
SUSAN LONG
THREE CHALLENGES Life and Lifestyle
Editor
1. UNICORNS TURFING OUT WORKHORSES
I hate to drive and used to embrace ride-hailing
apps, even contemplating selling my car. No longer.
Now I worry about the Internet economy’s
preoccupation with chasing unicorns – start-ups
valued at over US$1 billion (S$1.35 billion) – like
mobile taxi app Uber, pumping them full of borrowed
money, enabling them to undercut market rates,
monopolise key industries, then jack prices back up. suelong@sph.com.sg
Such disruption, aided by artificially low prices
subsidised by venture capital, has led to increased
traffic congestion, inflated rents and a growing THREE HOPES
underclass of permanent gig workers. Fund raising
has become the main metric of success. 1. VALUE VERSUS VALUATION
By the time the unicorns – many of them money- My hope is that the new decade will see a
losing – are all spent, I fear the trusty workhorses redefinition of value. That value, the true worth of
that provide essential daily services for communities a thing, will once again trump valuation, an estimate
like transport, food and delivery, but at unsubsidised of its worth.
hence less competitive prices, may have died along In his book
the wayside. 2. GENDER RE-REVOLUTION Future Shock,
2. WORKISM WIPING OUT BABIES
The above hope on redefining value applies, too, the late
for investing in our personal lives.
Fertility rates are free-falling around the world, What is needed to make more babies, which
American
even in former baby-friendly bastions that boast most economies and companies say they cannot author Alvin
gender equality and extensive support for women afford, is a radical revolution in gender attitudes Toffler
to combine work and family. and work norms. predicted: “The
Red flags of a shrinking workforce: slower eco-
nomic growth, growing public debt, less stable public 3. PREPARING FOR THE UNKNOWN
illiterate of the
finances and greater inter-generational conflict. Historically, education has been focused on
21st century will
This is despite the fact that an estimated preparing for the known, not the unknown. Futurist not be those
one-third of the world’s countries have tried to and business influencer Bernard Marr notes that who cannot
counter the dip with pro-natalist policies, backed education currently serves to prepare people to read and write,
by subsidised childcare, tax rebates and parental take on a job or discipline to do something. “As we
leave, for decades now. move further into the future, education will need
but those who
But this has barely made a dent in the baby to support children to develop the skill set and cannot learn,
shortfall because pro-natalism runs into direct mindset to do anything in their future, rather than unlearn and
conflict with what The Atlantic writer Derek a particular ‘something’,” he posits. relearn.” This
Thompson calls “workism” – an increasingly In his book Future Shock, the late American
entrenched belief that work is the “source and
is fast playing
author Alvin Toffler predicted: “The illiterate of the
summit” of our lives. 21st century will not be those who cannot read out.
and write, but those who cannot learn, unlearn
3. WHAT IS WORTH LEARNING? and relearn.”
In an age when Siri has all the answers, are Beyond the educational arms race, I hope that
schools teaching what matters, in a significant parents forge their own learning and relational goals,
way, in our children’s lives? Is the conventional to bring up resilient and kind children who are
curriculum, which is all about mastery of a large prepared for the many unknowns.
body of information and high-stakes testing, still Wishes: I have only one personal wish, a
the best return on investment? culmination of all the above, which is that I will
Can we let go of the past and overhaul education learn to quieten the fears of missing out by, finally,
– in time – for the future? embracing the joy of missing out (Jomo).
13Trade Watch
US-China trade truce: Will it last?
rules, all of which means it could easily unravel. In
sum, the deal is long on optics and short on substance.
According to the US version (there is also a
Chinese version), as part of the deal, China has
agreed to buy at least US$200 billion (S$270 billion)
worth of additional American goods compared with
2017 levels, including farm products, manufactured
goods, energy and services. It will also strengthen
intellectual property (IP) protection, open up its
financial sector, stop forced technology transfers
and refrain from manipulating its currency.
In return, the US agreed to cancel the tariffs on
US$160 billion worth of Chinese goods that were
scheduled to take effect in December and halve
the 15 per cent tariffs on US$120 billion worth of
Chinese imports that were imposed last September.
But the 25 per cent tariffs on US$250 billion worth
of imports that were applied earlier will remain –
although the US has said it will consider reducing
them too if China meets its commitments.
It all sounds good on paper, but what happens
in practice may be another story. The deal is
riddled with rosy assumptions, bizarre demands,
uncertainties and other hazards.
ST ILLUSTRATION : MIEL
US-China trade deal: UNREAL COMMITMENTS
Take China’s purchase commitments. This year,
More optics than substance China would need to increase its imports from the
US by more than 50 per cent compared with 2017
levels – at a time when its economy is growing at its
slowest pace in 29 years. This is an unreal expectation.
The only way China can meet it, if at all, is by
It’s a superficial deal riddled with flaw substituting imports from other countries.
So as it ramps up its purchases from the US, it
THE SO-CALLED PHASE ONE TRADE DEAL, will be forced to buy less from others: less soya
which was signed by US President Donald Trump and beans, for example, from Brazil and Argentina; less
VIKRAM KHANNA
Chinese Vice-Premier Liu He, has been trumpeted farm products, manufactured goods and services
Associate Editor
in Washington, greeted with muted approval in from the European Union, Canada, Australia, Japan,
Beijing, and viewed by many analysts as putting a South Korea and South-east Asia; and less energy
floor on the long-running trade dispute between products from Russia and the Middle East.
China and the United States. The preferential treatment China will have to
Politically, it is seen as a masterstroke by Mr accord to US goods and services, which include such
Trump, who can claim to have de-escalated trade items as hair clippers, jams, jellies and management
tensions and secured concessions from China that consulting services, will amount to managed trade
would benefit large sections of his base, especially under a system of import quotas, which is illegal
in US farm states; it serves also to boost his support under WTO rules.
vikram@sph.com.sg
among Republicans – and capture national attention China would also be forced to violate the cardinal
– just when the Senate is beginning its impeachment WTO principle of most-favoured nation, which
hearings against him. requires member countries to treat all their trade
While a case can be made that some deal is better partners equally. In short, the phase one trade
than no deal, a closer look at the economics of this deal goes against the basic rules of the multilateral
particular agreement suggests that it is not only trading system and sets a bad precedent.
incomplete and superficial, but also impractical, unfair EU Trade Commissioner Phil Hogan, who has
to other countries and potentially illegal in terms of criticised the deal, sounded an ominous warning of
compliance with World Trade Organisation (WTO) what may be coming: “If there’s a WTO compliance
14 ASIA REPORT February 2020issue, of course we will take a case,” he said during FLAWED DISPUTE SETTLEMENT
a recent visit to the US. And what happens if, as is likely, China fails to
Apart from China’s trading partners, others will meet some or all of its commitments?
also suffer collateral damage as a result of the deal. The phase one agreement has a dispute settlement
For instance, many shipments that are routed chapter, which allows for bilateral consultations to
from the US to China via Hong Kong may bypass the sort out differences. The problem, though, is that
territory and head direct to Chinese ports, so that the disputes will not be adjudicated by the WTO or
they can be recorded as Chinese imports from the US. any other independent body, but to a large extent
This would be a blow to Hong Kong’s trans-shipment by the USTR’s office, which will have the final say.
business at a time when its economy is in recession. In other words, a party to the dispute will also
Asian supply chains, which route goods to China, be the judge. And the US Trade Representative, Mr
may also have to readjust as China shifts some of Robert Lighthizer, has insisted that the agreement
its sourcing from Asia to the US. needs to be implemented “right down to every detail”,
The numerical targets that have been set for which suggests that the US is unlikely to cut China
China’s purchases from the US, such as US$80 much slack. With so much open to judgment and
billion in manufactured goods, US$53 billion in interpretation, there is ample scope for the agreement
energy, US$32 billion in agriculture and US$35 to be politicised. Mr Trump could easily declare that
billion in services – akin to something out of a 1960s China is failing to live up to its promises, and threaten
central planner’s playbook – are absurd. to reimpose tariffs to boost his poll numbers. Nobody
Apart from the level of demand, the value of should be surprised if this happens.
purchases will depend on market prices, which China, too, could decide to walk away from the
cannot be determined in advance – who can say deal, if it determines that the remaining tariffs are
what the prices of oil or other commodities will not being reduced as fast as it hopes, that its tech
be two years later, for instance – and most of them companies such as Huawei are continuing to be
will be made by private traders who have their own treated unfairly, and it is facing a losing battle dealing
sourcing arrangements and contracts. with disputes at the WTO brought by its other trading
The numerical targets, to which China is wisely partners, who would have a strong case.
reluctant to commit, look suspiciously like a public It could then decide, in a US election year, to,
relations act aimed at various US farm and business for example, switch its farm purchases from the US
constituencies, and can hardly be taken seriously. back to Brazil, Argentina, the EU and Australia. In
Many of China’s other commitments, such other words, this is a trade deal that could easily
as removing “structural barriers” to trade, unravel from either side (it is telling that Mr Liu,
strengthening its IP rights regime, and opening up and not President Xi Jinping, represented China in
its financial sector are vaguely worded. For example, sealing the deal).
on IP protection and technology transfers, China Meanwhile, some of the biggest trade issues
is required to “address longstanding concerns” between China and the US – especially China’s
according to the office of the US Trade Representative subsidies to its state-owned enterprises as well as
(USTR), which means much of what China does will cyber-security concerns – have yet to be addressed.
be subject to interpretation. These are said to be part of the agenda for a “phase
The US commitments are also vague. For two” trade deal.
instance, there is no schedule for the rollback of But that is not going to happen until after the US
the remaining tariffs on US$250 billion of Chinese presidential election in November – if it happens at
goods. all. Because, first, we have to get past phase one.
New US-China trade agreement won’t reset strained ties
THE LONG-AWAITED TRADE PACT MAY HAVE “That’s one thing the agreement isn’t going
been touted by both sides as proof that even the to derail,” said Shanghai-based former diplomat
TAN DAWN WEI
biggest rivals can strike a deal, but this partial Kenneth Jarrett, who is now senior adviser at
China Bureau Chief
agreement will not go the distance in resetting business strategy firm Albright Stonebridge Group.
already strained ties. “Tech tensions are still very much at the in Beijing
Tech decoupling will continue as the United forefront.”
States thwarts China’s technological rise and the Chief negotiator Liu He struck a conciliatory
Chinese race to find self-reliance. note at the pact’s signing on Jan 15, urging the US
The US sanctions targeting Chinese tech to be friendlier: “President Xi Jinping points out that
companies nearly crippled telecommunications there are a thousand reasons to make China-US
giant ZTE and is hurting Huawei’s mobile phone relations succeed and not a single one to let it fail.”
business. More punishing US actions are expected. Yet analysts do not see the trade deal helping to
dawntan@sph.com.sg
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