Considerations for the 2015 duck season - Current as at 10 December 2014
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Considerations for the 2015 duck season Current as at 10 December 2014
Content
Meeting objectives
Duck hunting in Victoria
Climate
Bureau of Meteorology reports
Habitat Availability
Eastern Australian Aerial Waterbird Count
Population Indices of Abundance and Distribution
Eastern Australian Aerial Waterbird Count
South Australian Survey
Harvest Statistics
Victorian Harvest Estimates
Summary
References
2Meeting objectives
• To share information among government agencies and key stakeholders on
issues that could affect the 2015 duck season
• To consider the likely impact of indices of abundance and distribution of the
game duck population, habitat availability and distribution and climatic
conditions, on the 2015 duck season
• To seek stakeholder views on the arrangements for the 2015 duck season
3Duck hunting in Victoria
• Duck hunting is a popular recreation in Victoria – 26,432 licensed hunters
• Duck hunting is heavily regulated to ensure it remains sustainable and
equitable
• Victoria’s game ducks are highly resilient to harvesting and have strong
powers of recovery in response to harvesting and favourable environmental
conditions
• Regulated duck hunting has been shown not to put at risk the conservation
status of game ducks1
• The Victorian duck season is prescribed under the Wildlife (Game)
Regulations 2012 to occur every year between the third Saturday in March
and the second Monday in June. Daily bag limits and hunting methods are
also set
• The Ministers may modify (increase2/decrease) the prescribed arrangements
under section 86 of the Wildlife Act 1975
• Environmental conditions and duck population distribution and abundance
are reviewed each year to ensure duck hunting remains sustainable
1. New South Wales National Parks and Wildlife Service, 2000, Scientific Panel Review of Open Seasons
for Waterfowl in New South Wales, New South Wales National Parks and Wildlife Service, New South
Wales
An increase to the prescribed arrangements has never been instituted
4
2.Climate 5
Recent annual rainfall
2009 2010 2011
2012 2013 2014
6Recent rainfall
Spring 2014 deciles November 2014 deciles
Rainfall totals to 10 December
7Summary – past rainfall
• Above average rainfall in 2010-12 ended a 13 year drought in Victoria and
other parts of eastern Australia
• April 2010 to March 2012 was Australia’s wettest two year period. As a
consequence, game duck populations boomed as food and habitat was in
abundance
• From spring 2012, dry conditions returned to eastern Australia
• Now, large parts of Queensland, parts of northeastern New South Wales
and western Victoria are experiencing very dry conditions
8Drought
Drought is a prolonged, abnormally dry
period when the amount of available water is
insufficient to meet our normal use.
Because people use water in so many
different ways, there is no universal definition
of drought.
Meteorologists monitor the extent and
severity of drought in terms of rainfall
deficiencies.
Lowest on record - lowest since at
least 1900 when the data analysis
began.
Severe deficiency - rainfalls in the
lowest 5% of historical totals.
Serious deficiency - rainfalls in the
lowest 10% of historical totals, but
not in the lowest 5%.
• Serious and severe rainfall deficiencies have persisted
across much of Queensland away from the eastern coast,
extending into inland northeastern New South Wales, the
southeast of the Northern Territory, the northeast and
southeast of South Australia and most of the western half of
Victoria since Spring 2012 9Summer rainfall predictions
(below average rainfall in yellow/orange)
Outlook accuracy for
summer rainfall is
moderate to high
over most of WA, northern
and eastern Queensland,
and eastern NSW; low over
southeast WA, the Top End
of the NT, western SA, and
western NSW; and very
low elsewhere.
• A drier than normal summer is more likely over the
Kimberley region of Western Australia, the Northern
Territory, Queensland, northern and eastern South
Australia, most of New South Wales, and eastern Victoria 10Summer temperature predictions
(above average temperatures in red)
Maximum temperature
accuracy is generally
moderate over western and
eastern parts of mainland
Australia, including the
northern NT, while
accuracy is low over
central parts, SA and
Tasmania.
• Warmer than normal summer temperatures are more
likely for most of Australia, except for western Western
Australia, western Victoria, south east corner of South
Australia and Tasmania
• Above average temperatures combined with dry
conditions could see an accelerated drying of wetlands 11
and waterwaysSouthern Oscillation Index
• The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)
is used as one indicator of whether
Australia is being affected by an El
Nino (dry conditions) or La Nina
(wetter conditions).
• When the SOI is positive, eastern
Australia tends to receive above
average rainfall. When negative,
drought tends to occur.
• Readings between +8 and -8 are
considered neutral.
• The latest 30-day SOI value to
30 November is −10.
• La Nina (wet conditions) are circled to
indicate the two wettest years in recent
history (2010/11).
• The chance El Niño will be
declared in the coming months
remains at 70%
12Melbourne water storage
• Water storage levels are an indicator of
the availability of waterbird habitat in
surrounding areas and water-flow in
feeder systems
• Melbourne water storage levels in
2014 remain at high levels as a
consequence of above average rainfall
between 2010 and 2012
13October Regional Storage Report
• The 2014 regional water
storage levels are at
relatively high levels when
compared to levels over the
past decade
Year Full capacity October volume % Full
(GL) (GL)
2014 10,634,250 8,367,894 78.7% • Regional storages have
decreased by 9% from the
2013 10,634,250 9,321,245 87.7% same time last year, but
remain high 14Streamflows
• Streamflow rates decreased significantly
across Victoria during October, with
gauging stations across two-thirds of the
state's area recording flows less than
10% of the long-term average for
October
• BoM forecasts for
November to January
indicate low stream flows
are likely in most of the
Victorian survey area over
summer
15Bureau of Meteorology report Video recording to be played from BoM website Web link: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/#/overview/video 16
HABITAT
AVAILABILITY
17Eastern Australian Aerial Waterbird Count
Aim: To monitor changes in the abundance and distribution
indices of waterbird species in eastern Australia.
• Conducted annually in October, since 1983 (31 years)
• Provides
• an index (not total count) of abundance of waterbirds
and game ducks
• information on the distribution of waterbird and game
duck populations along survey bands
• the extent and distribution of habitat along survey
bands, and
• limited information on waterbird breeding
• Waterbirds are counted from the air on up to 2000
wetlands across eastern Australia
• Up to 50 species of waterbirds are counted on all water
bodies larger than 1 ha
• The information is valuable for examining trends on over
one-third of continental Australia and over a long period
18EAAWC wetland area index
• The 2014 wetland area Total Wetland Area
index showed a decrease Index
from 2013 and remains
below the long-term
average
19EAAWC wetland distribution
Higher wetland area
• Most of the northern survey area has availability
experienced dry conditions since spring 2012,
with few large areas of wetland available
• Wetlands throughout Queensland, New South
Wales and central and western Victoria are
mostly dry
• However, the southeast part of the survey region
(Warrnambool, southern part of Coorong) had
higher than average rainfall in 2013, flooding
many wetland areas which continue to persist
• Bands 2, 3, 4 and 7 hold the majority of game
duck habitat
• The availability of limited habitat throughout
southern QLD, central and southern NSW,
central Victoria and south east SA,
avoids concentration solely in Victoria
20POPULATION INDICES OF
ABUNDANCE & DISTRIBUTION
21EAAWC index of waterbird
abundance
• Up to fifty waterbirds species
are surveyed in October each
year and include all Victorian
game species and non-game
species like swans, Freckled
Duck, Ibis, Coots etc.
• The abundance index is not a
total count. It provides
information on the trends in
waterbird abundance along
the survey bands
• The 2014 waterbird
abundance index decreased
and remained below the long-
term average
22Game duck abundance index
• This index includes information on The abundance index must be considered in context with
game ducks only a number of factors including:
• Game duck abundance index • distribution of birds
• habitat availability and distribution
increased from 2013 and was at
• climatic forecasts
56.3% of the long-term average
• concentrations of birds
Index abundance of game birds
23Relative abundance of game duck
species 1983-2014 (EAAWC)
1000000
Note: This aerial
900000 survey is not well
suited to detecting
800000
Wood Duck or
other species that
inhabit rivers,
700000
creeks and
waterways
600000
500000
Wood Duck
400000 Pink-eared Duck
Mountain Duck
300000 Hardhead
Grey Teal
200000 Chestnut Teal
Blue-winged Shoveler
100000
Black Duck
0
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
The majority of game birds detected in 2014 EAAWC were:
Grey Teal - 71%, Pink-eared duck - 15%, Black duck - 7%,
Hardhead – 4%, Wood Duck - 2% with remaining three species
(Shoveler, Chestnut Teal, Mountain Duck) registering less than 1% of the count 24EAAWC waterbird distribution 2014
• The greatest concentrations of waterbirds
were observed at Band 9 in north
Queensland and Band 2 through Victoria
and South Australia
• There were relatively few large
concentrations of waterbirds. Six wetland
systems (marked with an ) held more
than 5,000 birds accounting for ~60% of
total recorded abundance
• Lake Galilee (Band 9, Qld) held a third of
all the birds counted
• The distribution of birds outside Victoria
offers some protection against
overharvesting 25EAAWC breeding index
• Total breeding index (all species
combined) was the lowest on record
• All of the breeding occurred in one
location in Band 2 (Victoria/South
Australia), and involved only one non-
game species
• Detectability of breeding is limited using
aerial survey methods
• Game Ducks have been observed
breeding where conditions are suitable,
however, opportunities this year are
limited given the restricted habitat
availability
26Victorian Harvest Estimates 2014 27
Victorian harvest estimates: 2014
This data was obtained from the GMA’s annual phone survey
which is conducted at fortnightly intervals throughout the hunting season
• 26,261 licensed duck hunters at the start of the season
• Average number of days hunted during the 2014 season was 4.6 days
• Estimated number of ducks per hunter per day hunted was 3.7 ducks
• Estimated total hunter days for the 2014 season was 118,800
• 61% of licence holders (~15,584) hunted the 2014 opening weekend
• An estimated 449,032 game ducks were harvested during the 2014
season.
• An estimated 89,123 ducks were harvested on opening weekend (~20%
of estimated seasonal harvest)
Harvest estimates in the report are reported at 95% confidence intervals
28Victorian harvest estimates: 2014
Estimates Average 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
since 2009
Licensed 23,125 18,348 21,861 23,716 24,533 24,036 26,261
hunters
Total # 97,696 76,659 85,801 103,450 109,718 91,748 118,800
hunter days
Total harvest 412,199 222,302 270,574 600,739 508,256 422,294 449,032
Average # 4.2 4 4 4.5 4.6 3.7 4.6
days hunted
in the
season
Seasonal 17.5 11.1 12.5 26 21.2 17.2 17.3
harvest per
hunter
Opening 6.37 4.46 4.17 9.19 5.26 9.45 5.7
weekend
bag per
hunter
Average # 4.0 2.7 3.1 5.7 4.6 4.6 3.7
ducks per
day hunted
29Victorian harvest estimates: 2014
Blue-winged Shoveler
1% Harvest proportion by species
Pink-eared Duck Hardhead Black Duck are found on
3% 1% wetlands, rivers and creeks
and irrigation channels.
Chestnut
Teal
7%
Pacific Black Duck
28% Black Duck, Grey Teal and
Wood Duck consistently
make up the majority of the
harvest each year
Grey Teal
28%
Wood Duck
Grey Teal are primarily 29%
found on open wetlands.
Mountain Duck
2%
Wood Duck are primarily
found in creeks and rivers
and farm dams.
30South Australian survey
• Spring waterfowl and wetland surveys have been conducted
annually in South Australia (SA) since 2003 providing an
understanding of annual trends in wetland condition and
waterfowl populations
• The 2014 waterfowl and wetland survey indicated that waterfowl
are locally abundant
• Total abundance was the highest recorded since the surveys
commenced in 2003. Over 250,000 ducks were counted from a
surveyed wetland area of approximately 23,000 hectares
• However, duck density (ducks/ha) was less than 2011 and 2012.
• The Coorong (approximately 8,080 ha) and the South East
(approximately 9,948 ha) districts held the majority of ducks, with
54% and 39% of the ducks counted.
Duck density over time (ducks per hectare surveyed)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
1.5 11.4 14.5 10.5 11.1
• “The high density of ducks in 2014 may be reflecting the
congregation of ducks in refuge wetlands of good condition, such
as in the South East and the Coorong”2.
31Summary
32General summary
Climate
• Most of eastern Australia has experienced below average rainfall since
spring 2012
• A drier than normal summer is predicted for Queensland, New South Wales,
eastern Victoria and eastern South Australia (predication accuracy varies)
• A warmer than normal summer is likely for most of eastern Australia, except
for western Victoria and south east South Australia (predication accuracy
varies)
• The chance El Niño will be declared in the coming months remains at 70%
• Recent heavy rain events in Victoria and southern New South Wales have
caused localised flooding
Habitat and bird distribution
• Following a very wet 2010-2012, waterbird habitat has declined throughout
eastern Australia over the past 24 months
• The wetland area index is below the long-term average
• Most wetland habitat is available from central New South Wales to central
Victoria and south east South Australia with some limited habitat in
Queensland
33
• Melbourne regional water storages remain at high levels, despite modest
declinesGeneral summary
Habitat and bird distribution cont.
• Most Victorian streams are predicted to have low streamflows over
the summer months
• Birds are generally concentrated in remaining wetlands scattered
throughout eastern Australia, not just Victoria.
• EAAWC shows that the index of game bird abundance remains below
the long-term average but has increased from last year
• Breeding is supressed but has occurred wherever conditions are
favourable
South Australian Survey
• Total abundance in SE South Australia was the highest recorded
since the surveys commenced in 2003. Density was high, but not as
high as 2011 and 2012.
• Game ducks are concentrating in the Coorong and south east
wetlands where good habitat is available
34References
Australian Government - Bureau of Meteorology - www.bom.gov.au
Department of Environment and Primary Industries 2014, October Water Storage
and Streamflow reports.
Arthur Rylah Institute for Environmental Research 2014, Draft Technical Report
Series No. xxx. Estimates of Harvest for Deer, Duck and Quail in Victoria: Results
From Surveys of Victorian Game Licence Holders in 2014.
University of New South Wales 2014, Aerial Survey of Wetland Birds in Eastern
Australia- October 2014 Annual Summary Report, report prepared by RT Kingsford,
JL Porter, K Brandis.
Department of Environment, Water and Natural Resources 2014, Assessment of
waterfowl abundance and wetland condition in south-eastern South Australia
www.environment.sa.gov.au
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