COVID-19 economic data tracker - spring break edition - Truist
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COVID-19 economic data tracker – spring break edition
Michael Skordeles, AIF®
Week 14 – April 12, 2021
Senior U.S. Macro Strategist
Trend watch and what’s new this week support—are strong individually and are contributing to the recent
improvement. A fourth factor—a superfecta in the horseracing motif—
This is an abbreviated version due to spring break, which was in full- is unfolding, which is the rapidly increasing portion of the population
swing during the past few weeks. being vaccinated. That should allow the return of additional activities,
The key virus trends generally improved this past week (slide 3). New causing a virtuous cycle for the U.S. economy.
cases have stabilized, though some states have seen a slight uptick In combination, the resulting horsepower lifting the economy is
that is largely attributed to new variants. unparalleled, particularly for jobs in the coming months. These factors
Vaccinations globally continued to ramp higher (slide 5). The U.S. appear to be more than offsetting much of the ripples due to the Suez
remains at the front of the pack by most metrics. Daily doses Canal blockage and other weakness.
administered in the U.S. are 3.1 million (slide 6), while full Hopefully you have been able to enjoy some of the better weather for
vaccinations are up to 1.6 million per day. The CDC now expects a bit of a spring break!
90% of U.S. adults to be at least partially vaccinated by mid-July at
the current pace.
Lastly, we highlight dining reservations (slide 7), which have
continued to steadily climb. Spring break has boosted activity in the
south, southeast, and southwest.
Bottom line
Spring has definitely sprung and is being reflected in the activity-
based data for March and early April. Each of a trifecta of factors—
better weather, a further reopening by states, and fiscal
Securities and insurance products and services –
Are not FDIC or any other government agency insured | are not bank guaranteed | may lose valueU.S. COVID-19 economic data tracker matrix
Relative
Indicator What we’re watching
trend
New cases trends appear to be stalled, but vaccination efforts are kicking into high gear. Daily doses
U.S. state reopenings administered are running at 3.1M/day, while full vaccinations are at 1.6M/day. Spring break appears
to be boosting some of the travel-related metrics, such as air passenger counts.
TSA air passenger Weekly passenger rose 0.9% WoW to 9.9 million, the highest since mid-March 2020 as the daily average now
tops 1.4 million. Still, passenger counts are -38% below the 2019 weekly average of 16.1 million.
throughput
OpenTable restaurant The weekly average rose to -23% YoY, the highest level since mid-March 2020. More states and cities
reopening further. Just NY and MA remain below -50%, but D.C., NYC, LA, and San Fran down much more.
bookings
Parks (+24%) jumped to the highest level since mid-October. 7-day average relative to 2020: Transit -25%,
Google mobility Grocery/Pharmacy +0.7%, Residential +6%, Retail/Restaurant/Recreation -9%, Workplaces -29%.
Occupancy remained at 57.9%, while average daily rate rose to $112.76. Spring break helping markets like
Hotel occupancy Tampa (84.0%) and Miami (75.9%), but cold cities like Minneapolis (39.2%) and Boston (42.0%) lagged.
Apartment rent Payments through April 6 were 79.8%, up from 77.9% during the same period in April 2020. Full month rents for
March 2021 were 95.9%, matching the highest level since December 2019 (and also June 2020).
payments
Inbound cargo has ebbed, but remained strong, but the Suez blockage may make shipping matters worse. Rail
Freight carloads up 1.6% WoW. Freight experts are now calling the continuous heavy volume ‘perpetual peak’.
Ebbed to 92.7 from 93.1, but still near the highest level since December 2019. It is also up 31.7% YoY. The low
Staffing index for this cycle was 59.6 back in late April.
Sources: Truist IAG, NY Times, State Governor Websites, The Covid Tracking Project, Bloomberg,
Trend relative to whether it is favorable for economic growth: Transportation Security Administration, Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Report, STR/CoStar, National
Positive Negative Neutral / Mixed Multifamily Housing Council Rent Payment Tracker, American Staffing Association. Week-over-weak and year-
over-year change are abbreviated as WoW and YoY, respectively.Continued improvement in all of the key U.S. virus trends
New confirmed cases 7-day moving average Tests performed 7-day moving average
300,000 1,347,154
2,500,000
250,000
2,000,000
200,000
150,000 58,755 1,500,000
100,000 1,000,000
50,000 500,000
0 0
May-20
May-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Oct-20
Feb-21
Feb-21
Mar-21
Apr-21
Nov-20
Dec-20
Dec-20
Aug-20
Aug-20
Sep-20
Jun-20
Jan-21
Jul-20
Mar-21
Mar-21
Oct-20
Feb-21
Nov-20
Nov-20
Dec-20
Aug-20
Aug-20
Sep-20
Jun-20
Jun-20
Jan-21
Jan-21
150,000 Total hospitalized currently U.S. COVID-19 deaths
4,000 600,000
Total deaths (r-axis)
42,596 3,000 Change in deaths 7-DMA (l-axis)
100,000 1,009 400,000
2,000
50,000 200,000
1,000
0 - 0
May-20
May-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Oct-20
Feb-21
Feb-21
Mar-21
Apr-21
Nov-20
Dec-20
Dec-20
Aug-20
Aug-20
Sep-20
Jun-20
Jan-21
May-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Feb-21
Mar-21
Apr-21
Nov-20
Dec-20
Aug-20
Sep-20
Jun-20
Jan-21
Data Sources: Truist IAG, Bloomberg, Johns Hopkins University through April 11, 2020. Data for 50 U.S. states plus American Samoa, Washington D.C., Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Puerto Rico, and U.S. Virgin
Islands. 7-day moving average (DMA).Reopening trends – unevenness continues
NY Fed Weekly Economic Index 75 U.S. community mobility (7-day average)
12% 9.5% 50
8% 25
4% 0
0% -25
-4% -50 Grocery & Pharmacy Transit
-8% -75 Workplaces Parks
-12%
-100 Residential Retail & Recreation
20% OpenTable bookings year-over-year % TSA checkpoint traveler throughput
change (7-day average) 2,500,000 (7-day average)
0%
2,000,000
-20% 1,426,849
-40% 1,500,000
-60% 1,000,000
-19%
-80% 500,000
-100% 0
Feb-20
Mar-20
May-20
Jul-20
Apr-20
Oct-20
Feb-21
Mar-21
Apr-21
Nov-20
Dec-20
Aug-20
Sep-20
Jun-20
Jan-21
Mar-20
May-20
Jul-20
Apr-20
Oct-20
Feb-21
Mar-21
Nov-20
Dec-20
Aug-20
Sep-20
Jun-20
Jan-21
Sources: Truist IAG and the following additional sources respectively: Top left: Bloomberg, NY Federal Reserve Weekly Economic Index through April 3, 2021. Top right: (U.S. Community Mobility) Google COVID-19
Community Mobility Reports 7-day average through April 7. Bottom left: Bloomberg, OpenTable 7-day average through April 11. Bottom right: Bloomberg, Transportation Security Administration (TSA) 7-day average
through April 11.Vaccinations quickly ramping higher globally
Global vaccinations are nearing 800 million. The U.S. ranks first in the total number of vaccine doses administered, then China and India, which jumped
into third place ahead of the European Union. By continent – Asia 357 million, North America 209 million, South America 50.3 million, and Africa 13.5
million. The U.S. leads in people fully vaccinated with 72.6 million, more than 2.5 times higher than the European Union in second place. In terms of
percentage of population fully vaccinated, Israel leads with 57%, followed by Chile (24.4%), Bahrain (23%), and the U.S. (21.7%).
Cumulative COVID-19 vaccinations (in Number of Americans fully vaccinated
200
millions) (in millions)
80
180 United States (187.0M) World 72.6
160 China (167.3M) (788.2M, not shown) 70
India (104.5M)
140 60
European Union (95.3M)
120 United Kingdom (39.6M) 50
100 Brazil (26.7M)
80 40
60 30
40
20
20 1.3
10
0
1/3
2/7
3/7
4/4
1/10
1/17
1/24
1/31
2/14
2/21
2/28
3/14
3/21
3/28
4/11
12/13
12/20
12/27
0
Sources: Truist IAG, Our World in Data, Centers for Disease Control & Prevention (CDC). Data through April 11, 2021. China figures reported weekly though March 19, daily thereafter. U.S. figures includes all 50 states
plus Washington D.C., U.S. military installations and territories. Figures for the United Kingdom are not included in the European Union.Daily vaccination pace tops three million
The pace of vaccinations is running at 3.1 million per day, nearly doubled jumped since the end of February. The percentage of U.S. population
vaccinated is now over 20%. At the current pace, the percentage of U.S. adults at least partially vaccinated should top 90% by mid July, which would be
almost five months sooner than the estimated CDC projections from February.
U.S. vaccine doses administered per day
3.5 (7-DMA, in millions) 3.1M
3.0
2.5
1.7M
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21
Sources: Truist IAG, Bloomberg, Centers for Disease Control & Prevention (CDC). Data as of April 11, 2021, and is 7-day moving average (DMA).
.Spring break showing up in restaurant data
States in the southeast (Florida and South Carolina), south (Texas), and southwest (Arizona) have seen an upsurge in dining reservations over the past
few weeks, which is well-above the broader U.S. level of -19%. This is also apparent in the city-level data in states such as Florida, where all of the larger
cities that see spring break traffic has pushed dining reservations above pre-pandemic levels.
OpenTable Bookings Year-over-Year OpenTable Bookings YOY%: Florida
Percentage Change
80% Tampa Naples Miami
Florida South Carolina
60% Texas United States Orlando Ft Lauderdale
Arizona 100%
40% 80%
20% 60%
40%
0% 20%
-20% 0%
-20%
-40% -40%
-60% -60%
-80%
-80% -100%
-100%
Source: Truist IAG, Bloomberg, OpenTable. Data through April 9, 2021.Disclosures Advisory managed account programs entail risks, including possible loss of principal and may not be suitable for all investors. Please speak to your advisor to request a firm brochure which includes program details, including risks, fees and expenses. Truist Wealth is a marketing name used by Truist Financial Corporation. Services offered by the following affiliates of Truist Financial Corporation: Banking products and services, including loans and deposit accounts, are provided by SunTrust Bank and Branch Banking and Trust Company, both now Truist Bank, Member FDIC. Trust and investment management services are provided by SunTrust Bank and Branch Banking and Trust Company, both now Truist Bank, and SunTrust Delaware Trust Company. Securities, brokerage accounts and /or insurance (including annuities) are offered by Truist Investment Services, Inc. (d/b/a SunTrust Investment Services, Inc.), and P.J. Robb Variable Corp., which are each SEC registered broker-dealers, members FINRA, SIPC, and a licensed insurance agency where applicable. Life insurance products are offered through Truist Life Insurance Services, a division of Crump Life Insurance Services, Inc., AR license #100103477, a wholly owned subsidiary of Truist Insurance Holdings, Inc. Investment advisory services are offered by Truist Advisory Services, Inc. (d/b/a SunTrust Advisory Services, Inc.), GFO Advisory Services, LLC, Sterling Capital Management, LLC, and Precept Advisory Group, LLC, each SEC registered investment advisers. Sterling Capital Funds are advised by Sterling Capital Management, LLC. While this information is believed to be accurate, Truist Financial Corporation, including its affiliates, does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of, or otherwise endorse these analyses or market data. The opinions and information contained herein have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but Truist Financial Corporation makes no representation or guarantee as to their timeliness, accuracy or completeness or for their fitness for any particular purpose. The information contained herein does not purport to be a complete analysis of any security, company, or industry involved. This material is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Opinions and information expressed herein are subject to change without notice. TIS and/or its affiliates, including your Advisor, may have issued materials that are inconsistent with or may reach different conclusions than those represented in this commentary, and all opinions and information are believed to be reflective of judgments and opinions as of the date that material was originally published. TIS is under no obligation to ensure that other materials are brought to the attention of any recipient of this commentary. Comments regarding tax implications are informational only. Truist and its representatives do not provide tax or legal advice. You should consult your individual tax or legal professional before taking any action that may have tax or legal consequences. Investments involve risk and an investor may incur either profits or losses. Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance. TIS/TAS shall accept no liability for any loss arising from the use of this material, nor shall TIS/TAS treat any recipient of this material as a customer or client simply by virtue of the receipt of this material. The information herein is for persons residing in the United States of America only and is not intended for any person in any other jurisdiction. The information contained in this material is produced and copyrighted by Truist Financial Corporation and any unauthorized use, duplication, redistribution or disclosure is prohibited by law. TIS/TAS’s officers, employees, agents and/or affiliates may have positions in securities, options, rights, or warrants mentioned or discussed in this material. © 2021 Truist Financial Corporation. Truist, the Truist logo and Truist purple are service marks of Truist Financial Corporation CN2021-1550 EXP 12-2021
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