COVID-19 Updated look at US media implications
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COVID-19
Updated look at US
media implications
ISSUE #3 | APRIL 9, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Americans are optimistic Ad spending is down, The extreme growth in More and more
about economic especially in traditional TV viewing and video advertisers now directly
recovery, but uncertain media, despite increased streaming have slowed; addressing the crisis in
on timing – currently usage on many platforms audio streaming mostly messaging, as brands
thinking we are months, – leading to some stable or up, while look to secure long-term
not weeks away opportunistic pricing podcasts are down share of mind
Issue #3 agenda Consumer insights Location data Industry outlook Online traffic, sales Channel updates Brand responses
Consumer insights Evolving behaviors, habits, interests
Index of consumer sentiment
Consumer confidence
collapses in April
US jobless claims
now exceed 16 million
5 Source: University of Michigan; NYT / US Department of Labor
US optimistic about economic recovery About 40% expect to see a Optimism highest for high-income recovery within 2-3 months households, pessimism lowest for Gen Z 6 Source: McKinsey, Survey: US consumer sentiment during the coronavirus crisis, Apr 2020
Consumers continue to cut back spending Most believe routines and finances Uncertainty is holding back purchases will be impacted at least two months as consumers shop carefully 7 Source: McKinsey, Survey: US consumer sentiment during the coronavirus crisis, Apr 2020
About 40% expecting income reductions Both income and spending expected Gen Z expects the most income to decrease in the next two weeks reduction, but spending most resilient 8 Source: McKinsey, Survey: US consumer sentiment during the coronavirus crisis, Apr 2020
Lower spending affecting most categories Spending expected to decline over Some categories seeing growth the next two weeks across categories in online purchase intent 9 Source: McKinsey, Survey: US consumer sentiment during the coronavirus crisis, Apr 2020
Americans adopting new digital activities 10 Source: McKinsey, Survey: US consumer sentiment during the coronavirus crisis, Apr 2020
Most making limited trips outside the home
In the past week, how many
times have you left your home
to visit a store, restaurant, or
other retail establishment?
More than 20 0.4%
10 to 20 1.8%
4 to 9 15.9%
1 to 3 64.6%
Have not left my home
17.5%
for any of those reasons
11 Source: Resonate Flash Study, Mar 22-29, 202012 Source: visualcapitalist.com/media-consumption-covid-19, Global Web Index
13 Source: visualcapitalist.com/media-consumption-covid-19, Global Web Index
How our lives could change… permanently Evolving climate More working change debate from home Global pollution levels Prolonged shift may falling due to shutdown lead to full time moves More access to More local, broadband for all sustainable living Crisis showing internet Less globally-produced crucial for infrastructure food and less waste 14 Source: Goldman Sachs, Mar 30, 2020; MediaPost Mar 27, 2020
Industry outlook Latest on advertising demand, pricing
Most advertisers cutting back spending
Estimated
spend change
vs. original plan
16 Source: IAB Coronavirus Ad Spend Impact: Buy Side, Mar 27, 2020Traditional media taking more of the hit 17 Source: IAB Coronavirus Ad Spend Impact: Buy Side, Mar 27, 2020
Political ad spending plummets in March
National TV airings and estimated spend
10,775 $76.8 Surge in Feb driven largely by
Bloomberg and Steyer campaigns
475 $2.3 Dropoff in Mar largely expected as
candidates are settled, with next
Airings Spend (M) major peak typically stretching
Feb Mar from Labor Day to Election Day
18 Source: MediaPost / iSpot, Apr 3, 2020Digital ad rates down despite higher usage In a new report from IAC, Facebook CPMs fall to all-time low digital ad rates are down by 30% More impressions available on many sites and platforms given increased use, but lower ad demand pulling down costs 19 Source: Barron’s / IAC Apr 7, 2020; MediaPost / Gupta Media Apr 8, 2020
Channel updates Updated reads on video, audio, & more
TV viewing continues to climb, albeit slightly 21 Source: Simulmedia, data through Apr 3, 2020
Deeper dive on select networks News still up big, sports nets ailing 22 Source: Simulmedia, data through Apr 3, 2020
Changes in viewership by hour and daypart 23 Source: Alphonso, TV & The COVID-19 Pandemic, Apr 8, 2020
Major streaming players gaining share Video streaming share and volume Video streaming minutes per week weekly vs. year ago weekly vs. year ago 24 Source: Nielsen Streaming TV Update: Key Trends During COVID, Apr 1, 2020, based on P2+
Streaming nearly a quarter of total TV usage
Streaming share of total TV usage Top 10 SVOD programs: 3/9-3/15/20
weekly vs. year ago, among capable HHs
Top 10 SVOD programs: 3/16-3/22/20
25 Source: Nielsen Streaming TV Update: Key Trends During COVID, Apr 1, 2020Netflix’s Tiger King a unique phenomenon
Reach (persons 2+ in millions) 36.3
34.3
first 10 days following release
31.2
Series pulled in huge audiences
without pre-launch marketing or hype
10-day reach on par with other big hits
Tiger King Stranger Things S2 Stranger Things S3
11.4 11.2 11.1
10.3 10.7 10.4 10.4 10.4
9.0 8.7
7.4 7.5
6.4 6.9
6.0 5.6 5.4 5.5
4.8 4.8 5.0 5.1 5.2
4.2 4.3 4.4
3.3 3.5
0.7 2.2
Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7 Day 8 Day 9 Day 10 Total 10 Days
26 Source: Nielsen Streaming Meter Insights on SVOD Viewing, Apr 9, 2020TV vs. streaming usage varies by market Increase in linear TV consumption Increase in OTT consumption by state by state 27 Source: Alphonso, TV & The COVID-19 Pandemic, Apr 8, 2020
Redefining “live” entertainment…
NASCAR
NASCAR E-sports
Esports
“Virtual Bristol” Madden
drew just 29% of invitational
the audience from tournament with
the 2019 live race the pros on FS1
Wrestlemania
Wrestlemania Live music
Empty sets still International
bring in huge livestream
captive audience: performances
at a grand scale
967M video views
+20% YOYCOVID-19 changing how we internet
We are looking to connect and Virus update searches driving up
entertain ourselves, but are readership for local and established
turning away from our phones newspapers, but not partisan sites
Change in average monthly US traffic
30 Source: New York Times, Apr 7, 2020 (SimilarWeb, Apptopia data through Mar 24, 2020)Video chats and conferencing booming
We are seeking out new ways to We are suddenly reliant on services that
connect, mostly through video chat allow us to work and learn from home
Daily app sessions for popular apps
31 Source: New York Times (SimilarWeb, Apptopia), Apr 7, 2020C-19 drives short term app download boom Normalized downloads after C-19 Download spike following C-19 App store and Google Play installs by Initial frenzy driven by new needs, e.g. country following 1,000th confirmed case video chat and grocery delivery apps 32 Source: Sensor Tower 2020-2024 Mobile Market Forecast, Apr 2020
Disney+ beating Netflix in US downloads Top 10 downloaded streaming apps Top 10 streaming apps by IAP revenue Jan-Mar 2020 Jan-Mar 2020 33 Source: Apptopia, 2020: The Year of Streaming
Unique apps emerge amid a new reality Quibi launched 4/6, pushing ahead Quarantine Together launched 3/15, with short-form premium video looking to help the isolated find love App designed for short attention spans now #FlattenTheCurveTogether finds an audience with plenty of free time 34
Audio streaming use mostly flat or up
Changes in listening to streaming
music, radio, or podcasts since C-19
69%
• Midday consumption up
23% using more
• Weekday use of connected devices now on par with weekend use
13% 7%
2% 2% 4% 3% • Rap and Pop still top genres, but more local subgenres on the rise
Decreased to Decreased to Decreased to
a large extent a moderate a small extent
Stayed the
same
Increased to a Increased to a Increased to a
small extent moderate large extent
• Playlist sharing increasing, first quarantine related, now more chill
extent extent
Which streaming music / radio
services are you now using more? • Majority (>50%) spending the same amount of time per device
29% • 42% of listeners spending more time with audio
23%
19%
13%
• 59% spending more time listening alone
9% 7%
• 34% spending more time co-listening
Spotify Pandora Amazon Prime Other iHeartRadio Apple Music • 18% spending more time with podcasts
Music
35 Source: Resonate, Mar 2020; Pandora Soundboard Study, Mar 2020; SpotifyPodcast audiences drop as fewer commute US weekly downloads down 10%, Behavior shifting to more unique listeners down 20% in March constant usage throughout the day YTD weekly growth rate 36 Source: Podtrac Apr 5, 2020; Megaphone Mar 25, 2020
News podcasts hanging on, sports down big US weekly downloads: top categories US weekly downloads: all categories YTD growth YTD growth 37 Source: Podtrac Apr 5, 2020
Consumers worried about safety of print 70% are concerned about safety of reading a delivered print magazine, journal, catalog, or newspaper 54% are more likely to consume digital content over print while social distancing Several weekly, some daily newspapers have either reduced or suspended printing 38 Source: MediaPost, Apr 3, 2020 (Changing Magazine Habits Due to COVID-19, BlueToad)
Location data Recent trends for select categories
Google mobility tracker regional trends
Manhattan
Grocery & pharmacy visitation change
by state, week ending 3/29
LA County
40 Source: Geopath / Intermx COVID-19 Data Update, Apr 06, 2020; Google Mobility TrackerNinthDecimal: weekly changes in foot traffic 41 Source: NinthDecimal COVID-19 Impact 2020, Apr 7, 2020
Placer.ai: Retail Impact Tracker Select grocery 42 Source: Placer.ai Retail Impact Tracker, through Apr 4, 2020
Online traffic, ecom sales Insights from Morgan Stanley, plus SimilarWeb, Stackline, and Criteo updates
Morgan Stanley: outlook for select brands
Stronger post downturn Cautious short term
Major shifts to ecommerce Greater instability in competition
More utility-like model Higher pipeline uncertainty
More gaming at home Weaker post downturn
High local / SMB exposure
First platforms where
ad dollars should return
Large ticket item, storefronts
Heightened focus on health
Long term uncertainty,
restructuring, liquidity constraints
Stocking up on pet supplies
44 Source: Morgan Stanley, Who Will Be Stronger After the Storm…and Why, Mar 30, 2020SimilarWeb online traffic by sector 45 Source: SimilarWeb, data through Apr 7, 2020
Fastest growing / declining e-com categories 46
Criteo indexed weekly online sales 47 Source: Criteo, based on verified client sales trackers, indices compared to average of 1/1/19-1/28/19
Criteo indexed weekly online sales 48 Source: Criteo, based on verified client sales trackers, indices compared to average of 1/1/19-1/28/19
Criteo indexed weekly online sales 49 Source: Criteo, based on verified client sales trackers, indices compared to average of 1/1/19-1/28/19
Criteo indexed weekly online sales 50 Source: Criteo, based on verified client sales trackers, indices compared to average of 1/1/19-1/28/19
Brand responses How marketers are reacting to the crisis
Most brands shifting messaging, strategy
ANA: 92% have adjusted creative IAB: Mar-June messaging strategy
messaging since mid-March shifting away from performance
• Refocused to reflect empathy
• Pulled price-item for “we’re here for you”
• Favored emotional messaging around
social distancing over hard selling
52 Source: ANA survey, Mar 30-31, 2020; IAB Coronavirus Ad Spend Impact: Buy Side, Mar 27, 2020McKinsey: think and act across 5 horizons 53 Source: McKinsey COVID-19: Implications for business
Edelman Trust Barometer guidance 54 Source: Adweek, Mar 31, 2020
Common themes across select cateogories 55 Source: Alphonso, The Coronavirus Effect: TV Genres, OTT & Streaming Trends
Retailers offer stay at home apparel deals Nordstrom Macy’s Gap Saks J Crew Anthropologie American Eagle Revolve 56 Source: Business Insider, Apr 5, 2020
Leveraging the Marketing Team for agile creative
58
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