Election analysis - Vuelio
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
2019
Election analysis
Michael Tubi / Shutterstock.com
The results
The first December election since 1923 was a The SNP made a net gain of +13 seats. Overall
gamble that paid off for Boris Johnson. turnout of 67.3% was 1.5% lower than in 2017.
The Prime Minister was re-elected with the largest The political map of the UK has effectively
Conservative majority, 80, since Margaret Thatcher been redrawn with this election result with the
won in 1987. Conservatives taking seats from Labour across the
North of England and North Wales. The SNP also
The Conservative party won 365 seats, Labour reasserted itself in Scotland, now holding 48 out of
203, the SNP 48, the Liberal Democrats 11, the DUP 59 seats, including ousting the Lib Dem leader Jo
8, Sinn Fein 7, Plaid Cymru 4, the SDLP 2, the Green Swinson from her seat in East Dunbartonshire.
Party 1 and the Alliance Party 1.
This decisive result is widely seen as a vindication
The Brexit Party did not elect any MPs. of Mr Johnson’s central campaign pledge to ‘Get
Brexit done’ and get the Withdrawal Agreement Bill
This equates to a net gain for the Conservatives of through Parliament to ensure the UK leaves the EU
+47 seats and a net loss for Labour of -59 seats. by the 31 January 2020.
Lowest winning
32,011,916 vote share Biggest majority
voter turnout, which is South Down Knowsley
67.3% of the 32.4% 39,942
registered electorate (Sinn Féin) (Labour)
Smallest
220 female
majority Highest turnout
MPs have been
Fermanagh & East
elected, the most
South Tyrone Dunbartonshire
at any general
57 votes 80.3%
election
(Sinn Féin)
Source: Electoral Reform Society
Vote share by region
North East
Scotland Lab: 42.6%
SNP: 45% Con: 38.3%
Con: 25.1% All others: 19.1%
Labour: 18.6%
Lib Dem: 9.5%
All others: 1.8%
Yorkshire and The Humber
Con: 43.1%
Lab: 38.9%
All others: 18%
North West
Lab: 46.5%
Con: 37.5%
Lib Dem: 7.9% East Midlands
All others: 8.1% Con: 54.8%
Lab: 31.7%
All others: 13.5%
Northern Ireland
DUP: 30.6%
Sinn Féin: 22.8%
SDLP: 14.9% East
Alliance: 16.8% Con: 57.2%
All others: 14.9% Lab: 24.4%
Lib Dem: 13.4%
All others: 5%
West Midlands
Con: 53.4%
Lab: 33.9%
London
All others: 12.7%
Lab: 48.1%
Con: 32%
Lib Dem: 14.9%
All others: 5%
Wales
Lab: 40.9%
Con: 36.1% South East
Plaid: 9.9% Con: 54%
All others: 13.1% Lab: 22.1%
Lib Dem: 18.2%
Green: 3.9%
All others: 1.8%
South West
Con: 52.9%
Lab: 23.6%
Lib Dem: 17.8%
All others: 5.7%
Biggest casualties
Jo Swinson Nigel Dodds Zac Goldsmith
Former leader of the Liberal DUP deputy leader Former London mayoral
Democrats Constituency: North Belfast candidate
Constituency: East Margin of loss: 1,943 votes Constituency: Richmond Park
Dunbartonshire Margin of loss: 7,766 votes
Margin of loss: 149 votes
David Gauke Dominic Grieve Laura Pidcock
Former justice secretary Former attorney general Former shadow secretary of
Constituency: Hertfordshire Constituency: Beaconsfield state for employment rights
South West Margin of loss: 15,712 votes Constituency: North West
Margin of loss: 14,408 votes Durham
Margin of loss: 1,144 votes
Dennis Skinner
Longest serving Labour MP
Constituency: Bolsover
Margin of loss: 5,299 votes
Top of the polls
The poll tracker shows the upwards trajectory the campaign. The Brexit Party’s decision to stand
for the Conservatives throughout the duration of down candidates in Conservative seats also had a
the campaign and for Labour albeit from a much dramatic effect on its polling which is reflected in the
lower base. The clear Conservative message on downward trend in the later part of the campaign.
Brexit and the Labour attempts to focus the election
on the NHS and public services largely meant The final average vote share from all polls, as
that minor parties like the Green Party and the evidenced here by Britain Elects, shows a much
Liberal Democrats were heavily squeezed out of more accurate picture than in previous elections.
Source: Britain Elects poll tracker • Updated 12 Dec 2019, 4:44am
The data showing the dominance of Labour’s social reflect the wider electorate. The social media push
media campaign with graphs tracking engagement for tactical voting in key constituencies also does
from Pulsar on Facebook and Twitter for Johnson not appear to have had an impact on the election
and Corbyn, reveal that social media does not outcome.
What next?
The clear majority that Boris Johnson has achieved As well as a wide policy platform, the Conservative
is far more than many in his own party were manifesto also sought to avoid the major error
anticipating. with the 2017 proposals to reform the funding of
adult social care. With that issue widely seen as
It will enable the Conservative Party to achieve a destroying the Conservative chances of winning the
significant amount of its manifesto, but initially it 2017 election outright, the 2019 manifesto pledges
will ensure the EU Withdrawal legislation can pass to ‘seek a cross party consensus on social care in
through parliament as early as next week, so that order to bring forward legislation for long term
the UK can formally leave the European Union by reform’. The Conservatives added that ‘any solution
31 January 2020. will need to guarantee that no one will need to sell
their home to pay for care’ and pledged to double
The 80-seat Commons majority will also enable the research funding into finding a cure for dementia.
Prime Minister to pursue an EU trade agreement in
record time and fulfil his pledge not the extend the On a global level, beyond Brexit one of the key
transition period beyond the end of 2020. If a short challenges for Boris Johnson’s Government once
extension is required though, the PM is unlikely to the UK has left the EU in January is to secure a
face the pressure that Theresa May from factions Trade deal with the USA. It was a central issue
within the Conservative Party or the DUP, because of the campaign with Jeremy Corbyn saying the
of the size of the Government’s majority. Conservatives would trade away the NHS in future
negotiations and this being flatly denied by the PM.
Boris Johnson now can pursue his agenda as set out
in the manifesto, including pledges to: President Trump tweeted this message to
congratulate Boris Johnson’s election victory:
• Introduce an Australian style points-based ‘Congratulations to Boris Johnson on his great WIN!
immigration system Britain and the United States will now be free to
• Fund and deliver 50m extra general practice strike a massive new Trade Deal after BREXIT. This
appointments a year deal has the potential to be far bigger and more
• Increase the National Insurance threshold to lucrative than any deal that could be made with the
£9,500 in the next Budget E.U. Celebrate Boris!’
• Abolish the Fixed Term Parliaments Act
• Ensure parliamentary boundaries are updated
and equal so that every vote counts the same
“Congratulations to Boris Johnson on his great WIN!
Britain and the United States will now be free to
strike a massive new Trade Deal after BREXIT.
“
Johnson’s promises
• NHS budget up by £33.9 billion by 2023-2024
• 50,000 more nurses
• 40 new hospitals
Health & Social Care
• £800m investment to build the first fully deployed carbon capture storage cluster by mid-2020s
• Will not support fracking unless science proves it can be done safely
• Will plant 30m trees a year until 2024
Energy & Environment
• Raise the National Insurance threshold to £9,500 next year, representing a tax cut for 31 million
workers
Business, Tax & • Ensure that the first £12,500 you earn is completely free of tax – which would put almost £500 per
year in people’s pockets
Economy
• 20,000 more police officers will be recruited
• Police will also be given powers to make it easier for officers to stop and search those convicted of
knife crime
• Tougher sentences will be introduced for the most serious crimes
Home Affairs & Justice • 10,000 additional prison places will be made available
• Will introduce Australian-style points system; this system will require people to have jobs before
coming to the UK and treat EU and non-EU immigrants the same
Immigration
• The Brexit deal will be put through Parliament before Christmas and the UK will leave the EU in
January
Brexit
• Build Northern Powerhouse Rail
• Invest £29bn in strategic roads, including £1bn for electric car charging network
• Invest in Midlands rail hub
Infrastructure &
• Consult on HS2
Transport • Launch pothole filling programme
• Build at least one million new homes over the next Parliament
• Maintain Right to Buy
• Abolish no-fault evictions
• Introduce a stamp duty surcharge for non-UK residents buyers
• Encourage a new market in long-term fixed-rate mortgages
• End rough sleeping before the next Parliament
Housing • Ban the sale of new leasehold homes
• Full fibre and gigabit capable broadband to every home and business across the UK by 2025
Digital & Culture
• An English Devolution White Paper will be published
• Local people will continue to have the final say on council tax
Local Government &
Devolution
• Establish a new £1bn fund to create affordable childcare, including after school and during holidays
Education
• The roll-out of Universal Credit will continue and the benefit freeze will come to an end
Welfare & Pensions
Make sense
of new
political
times
vuelio.com 0203 426 4125
You can also read
