EUPHEME Prof Len Shaffrey, National Centre for Atmospheric Science Department of Meteorology University of Reading, UK - Copernicus Climate Change
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EUPHEME
Prof Len Shaffrey,
National Centre for Atmospheric Science
Department of Meteorology
University of Reading, UK
EUPHEME • EUPHEME is a 3-year €2.5M project funded through the ERA4CS ERA-NET (Coordinator: Peter Stott) • Started Sept 2017 and ends in Sept 2020 • The vision of EUPHEME is to place weather extremes in the context of climate variability and change, thereby helping European citizens to adapt to a changing climate and mitigate its worst effects
EUPHEME Objectives 1. Develop state of the art methods for the attribution of extreme climate and weather events 2. Develop a scientific platform to carry out attribution analyses 3. i) Provide user-oriented syntheses ii) Disseminate consistent attribution assessments iii) Demonstrate the potential of attribution products
EUPHEME Partners The EUPHEME Partners are: • Met Office, UK • Met Éireann, Ireland • CNRS, France • KNMI, Netherlands • Météo France, France • BRGM, France • NCAS, Reading, UK • CGCRI, Czech Republic
EUPHEME Partners The EUPHEME Partners are: • Met Office, UK • Met Éireann, Ireland • CNRS, France • KNMI, Netherlands • Météo France, France • BRGM, France • NCAS, Reading, UK • CGCRI, Czech Republic • Wider Community
The ERA4CS ERA-NET • EUPHEME is funded through the ERA4CS ERA-NET •The aim of ERA4CS is to undertake “Fundamental research to develop Climate Services” • Two-thirds of EUPHEME is funded by in-kind contributions from partners (the additional funding is from the European Commission)
The ERA4CS ERA-NET • EUPHEME is funded through the ERA4CS ERA-NET •The aim of ERA4CS is to develop “Fundamental research to develop Climate Services” • Two-thirds of EUPHEME is funded by in-kind contributions from partners (the additional funding is from the European Commission) • EUPHEME represents a substantial commitment by its partners to further the science of climate attribution, increase its societal relevance and develop a prototype platform for future operational services.
Research & Development Services
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Operational Attribution Services
Attribution Workshop
1st GA
C3S
ECMWF scoping meeting
Copernicus Climate Change Service
Stage 0: Stage 1: Stage 2: Stage 3:
Proof of Concept Pre-Operational Op: 20ECVs 5-6 Sectors Operational: 30ECVs 10 Sectors
EUCLEIA
EUPHEME
C20C+, World Weather Attribution, IDAG and other research initiatives
Prototype
End of EUCLEIA Met Office service website End of EUPHEME
Seasonal system
TRL 3 for event attribution
TRL 4 TRL 5 TRL 6 TRL 7-9
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020EUPHEME
TRL 1 ••Basic principles observed
TRL 2 ••Technology concept formulated
E TRL 3 ••Experimental proof of concept
U
P TRL 4 ••Technology validated in lab
H
E
TRL 5 ••Technology validated in relevant environment
M
E
TRL 6 ••Technology demonstrated in relevant environment
TRL 7 ••System prototype demonstration in operational env.
TRL 8
••System complete and qualified
TRL 9 ••System proven in operational environmentResearch & Development Services
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Operational Attribution Services
Attribution Workshop
1st GA
C3S
ECMWF scoping meeting
Copernicus Climate Change Service
Stage 0: Stage 1: Stage 2: Stage 3:
Proof of Concept Pre-Operational Op: 20ECVs 5-6 Sectors Operational: 30ECVs 10 Sectors
EUCLEIA
EUPHEME
C20C+, World Weather Attribution, IDAG and other research initiatives
Prototype
End of EUCLEIA Met Office service website End of EUPHEME
Seasonal system
TRL 3 for event attribution
TRL 4 TRL 5 TRL 6 TRL 7-9
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020EUPHEME
Workpackage and
project structure
of EUPHEMEEUPHEME WP1: User Needs WP1 aims at bridging the gap to tailor climate change attribution products to specific sectors • Identify sectoral issues to demonstrate the benefits of an operational attribution service for Europe • Establish a dialogue to develop a common understanding of event attribution, including uncertainties and implications for decision making
EUPHEME WP1: User Needs
WP1 aims at bridging the gap to tailor climate change
attribution products to specific sectors
• Identified Sectors: Policy makers, insurance, legal and
media
• Establish user group to:
i) identify needs
ii) co-develop & co-evaluate
prototype service in WP4EUPHEME WP2: New Methods
Event Model Attribution
Synthesis
Definition Evaluation Analyses
• Developing new methods for Event Definition
• Impacts models (e.g. flood
modelling); more complex
phenomena (e.g storms)
• Model evaluation and
robustness
• Using Reliability to
evaluate models
• Coupled versus
uncoupled attributionEUPHEME WP2: New Methods
Event Model Attribution
Synthesis
Definition Evaluation Analyses
• Developing new methods for Attribution Analysis
• New statistical methods
• Flow dependent attribution
• Inverse attribution: What
was the likelihood of a past
event? E.g. cold Januarys in
France
Courtesy of Robert Vautard, LCSEEUPHEME WP2: New Methods
Event Model Attribution
Synthesis
Definition Evaluation Analyses
• Developing new methods to synthesise results
• Weighted average of risk ratio results from statistical
methods and dynamical models
Risk Ratio
Ethiopian Drought
2015: Risk ratios from
statistical methods and
dynamical models
(Philip et al. 2017, J.
Clim)
Courtesy of Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, KNMIEUPHEME WP3: Shared Platform
Development of an scientific event attribution platform
1. Development of
an attribution web
processing service
based on the KNMI
Climate Explorer
2. Development of a scientific
collaboration site (e.g. online
lab book, co-author papers,…)EUPHEME WP3: Shared Platform
Development of an shared event attribution platform
Application of methods and synthesis for test cases
• Two rapid attribution
cases e.g. automated
use of 12km EURO-
Cordex simulations
• From Month 12,
seasonal retrospectives
The Summer 2017 record heat in Med regions
Courtesy of Robert Vautard, LCSE Indicator = Tx mean JJA over Med areaWP4: Delivering a prototype
user-oriented attribution service
An attribution service website
developed in consultation with
stakeholders (via WP1) WP4 aims to:
Extreme Events in a Changing Climate
• Deliver a prototype service website for the
Extreme Events in a Changing
Climate
dissemination of attribution information
• Develop protocols for the effective
communication of information
• Demonstrate how attribution of impacts can
be part of a developing attribution service
© Crown copyright Met Office
Courtesy of Nikos Christidis, Met OfficeEUPHEME: Summary • EUPHEME is a 3-year €2.5M project funded through the ERA4CS ERA-NET (2017-2020) • Develop state of the art methods for the attribution of extreme climate and weather events • Develop a scientific platform to carry out attribution analyses • Provide user-oriented syntheses; disseminate consistent attribution assessments (including uncertainties); demonstrate the potential of attribution products
EUPHEME WP2: New Methods
Event Model Attribution
Synthesis
Definition Evaluation Analyses
• Developing new methods for Event Definition
• Impacts models (e.g. flood
modelling) and more complex
phenomena (e.g storms)
• Model evaluation and robustness
• Using Reliability to evaluate models
• Coupled versus uncoupled attributionEUPHEME
EUPHEME Objectives 1. Develop state of the art methods for the attribution of extreme climate and weather events on a range of timescales, and new techniques for evaluating their reliability 2. Develop a scientific platform which hosts data, supports data processing and provides collaboration space for scientists from partner institutions to carry out attribution analyses using complementary methods and data sources 3. Provide a user-oriented synthesis, disseminate consistent attribution assessments through a prototype attribution service website and demonstrate the potential of attribution products to a wide variety of stakeholders
EUPHEME Objectives 1. Develop state of the art methods for the attribution of extreme climate and weather events on a range of timescales, and new techniques for evaluating their reliability 2. Develop a scientific platform which hosts data, supports data processing and provides collaboration space for scientists from partner institutions to carry out attribution analyses using complementary methods and data sources 3. Provide a user-oriented synthesis, disseminate consistent attribution assessments through a prototype attribution service website and demonstrate the potential of attribution products to a wide variety of stakeholders
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