European PV manufacturing - does it make sense? - L. Oberbeck Institut Photovoltaïque d'Île-de-France Total Gas, Renewables and Power
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European PV manufacturing – does it
make sense?
L. Oberbeck
Institut Photovoltaïque d'Île-de-France
Total Gas, Renewables and Power
May 6, 2021
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Institut Photovoltaïque d'Île-de-France IPVF
Our ambition Six programmes
Streamline upstream research with a strong industrial
foothold and operate a world-class experimental ❖ Techno-economic and environmental assessment
platform to: ❖ Perovskite on c-Si tandem modules
❖ Radically improve the performances of PV modules ❖ Low-cost III/V on c-Si tandem cells
❖ Develop disruptive PV-based technologies
❖ Advanced characterization & modeling
Founding members ❖ Solar to fuel
❖ PV breakthrough technologies demonstration
A French Institute for Energy Transition
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Setting the scene (1) – PV markets and manufacturing
• Global cumulative installation ca. 760 GW by end of 2020
• Global installation 2020 ca. 135 GW
• Top 3 markets: China, Europe, US
• Market segments: utility-scale (dominating), industrial & commercial,
residential and specialty markets (floating, integrated PV, …)
• Production capacity ca. 270 GW
• Production strongly dominated by China
Si wafers Cells Modules
IEA PVPS, 2019
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Setting the scene (2) – PV technologies and prices / costs
Thin-film IBC
Graph courtesy of Pietro Altermatt, Chen Yifeng
22.6% Maxeon 5
Multi-Si
Mono-Si
• Market share of crystalline Si PV
technology ca. 93% in 2020
• Current workhorse of PV industry: PERC
(Passivated Emitter and Rear Cell),
module efficiency ca. 20.5% currently
• Module price ca. 20 c$/W
• Module price learning rate 40%
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European markets and manufacturing
Annual installations Annual installations Cumulative installations
Europe Germany and plans France
SolarPowerEurope, 2020
• Cumulative PV installation in Europe ca. 137 GW, annual growth of
13-23% expected
• Cumulative PV installation in Germany ca. 55 GW (largest PV fleet in
Europe), ca. 6 GW installations expected for 2021
• Cumulative PV installation in France ca. 10 GW, ambitious targets of
up to 44 GW by 2028
• Current PV production in Europe: mainly small-scale (
PV technology options for manufacturing in Europe
Expected evolution of market shares of different
solar cell technologies
Five PV technology options for European manufacturing:
• PERC (current standard technology)
• Pathways to higher PV module efficiencies >22%
o Upgrade of existing PERC production lines:
passivated contact technologies (“TOPCon”
Tunnel Oxide Passivated Contact)
o New production lines: silicon heterojunction
Technology comparison (indicative only)
HJT or interdigitated back-contact IBC
PERC TOPCon SHJ / IBC Perovskite / Si
technologies tandem
o Market entry of novel technology expected in
Efficiency
potential • ✓ ✓✓ ✓✓✓
Bifaciality Depending on
2022: perovskite on silicon tandem modules • ✓ ✓✓ / •* Si cell
TempCo
• ✓ ✓✓* ✓✓✓
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Manufact.
cost ✓✓✓ ✓ (?) •* (?) ?
6
*Depending on concrete process flow
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Cost competitiveness of European manufacturing?
PERC 144 half-cells, bifacial module with transparent backsheet and Al frame “Recover”: EU
supply chain at Assumptions for relative differences between EU and
Chinese costs Chinese performance parameters
Competitiveness of a European PV
manufacturing chain, VDMA, 2020
World market share for size of cell production fabs
• VDMA / Fraunhofer ISE study for 1 GW integrated fab (Si ingot to module) finds that PV module
manufacturing in Europe can be competitive if
o transport costs add significantly to the price of imported modules (around 10%)
o European fabs reach sizes of ≥5 GW
o GW-scale supply chain returns to Europe
o environmental impact / CO2 emissions are valued
• However, some assumptions questionable and available supply chain crucial
• Note: size of cell / module fabs is growing, fabs >5 GW becoming standard over next years
• Note also: historically, PV manufacturing is a low-margin business
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Some comments on European manufacturing
✓ Securing PV energy autonomy − European materials supply chain needs to be re-
established
✓ Large and growing European markets available
− Difficult to compete on cost basis
✓ Sustainable production with European energy mix
✓ Creating / securing jobs in Europe, incl. supply chain − Higher quality of manufacturing and product?
− Financing of European fabs
✓ World-leading research institutes
Other considerations:
• PV cell manufacturing in Asia and module manufacturing in Europe?
• Investment in European fabs by Asian PV manufacturers?
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Summary and discussion points
Potential PV module efficiency evolution
• PV manufacturing largely dominated by Chinese companies
W. Hoffmann, A. Metz, EUPVSEC 2019.
• Monocrystalline Si PERC is workhorse of the PV industry, current module efficiencies
ca. 20.5%
• Module prices decrease with learning rate of 40%
• Markets in Europe and world-wide are growing
• European manufacturing mainly small-scale (
Thank you very much for
your attention
lars.oberbeck@total.com
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