Evolution in the Automotive sector - How does the urge for constant adaptation affect CIE Automotive?
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January 2018
Evolution in the
Automotive
sector
How does the
urge for constant
adaptation affect
CIE Automotive?
1
1. Taking a car to pieces
2. Evolution in the Automotive sector
TABLE OF 3. From ICE to EV
CONTENTS 4. Electrification: Scenarios
5. Uncertainties concerning EVs
6. Other Trends
7. CIE Automotive: constant adaptation
2
1) Taking a car
to pieces
3
ST R U C T U R E & C H A S S I S
S T R U C T U R A L PA R T S , C H A S S I S & S U S P E N S I O N
Source: Honda
Chassis and suspension (rear)
Structural components
Chassis and Source: BMW
suspension (front)
4
INTERIOR & EXTERIOR TRIM
INTERIOR, EXTERIOR TRIM & ROOF SYSTEMS
Interior trim including doors, seat, airbag,
cockpit, sunshade and decorative parts
Exterior trim including logos, emblems,
wheel covers and decorative parts, as
well as roof systems
5
DRIVETRAIN
TRANSMISSION, STEERING,BRAKING SYSTEM
Source: GKN Driveline
Source: Brose
Source: Bosch
Source: GKN Driveline
Driveline plus differential, steering and braking systems
6
P OW E RT R A I N
ENGINE & GEARBOX
Exhaust system
Engine and gearbox, up to
differential
Source: Faurecia
7
2) Evolution
in the
Automotive
sector
8
E VO LU T I O N I N T H E AU TO M OT I V E S EC TO R
CASE 1: INJECTION SYSTEM (1/2)
Injector
9
E VO LU T I O N I N T H E AU TO M OT I V E S EC TO R
CASE 1: INJECTION SYSTEM (2/2)
Carburettor Obsolete
Distributor Obsolete
Metal Brazing Inox Welded Tube
Forging Inox Seamless Tube
Plastic Rail Metal Inox
Metal Brazing LP
Metal Brazing
water
Machining
2000 bar 2500 bar 3000 bar
Rail1000 bar
10E VO LU T I O N I N T H E AU TO M OT I V E S EC TO R
C A S E 2 : A U X I L I A R I E S E L E C T R I F I C AT I O N ( 1 / 2 )
Electric
Steering
Hydraulic
Steering
Source: ZF - TRW
Source: ZF - TRW
Electrification also implies more
number of architectures
11E VO LU T I O N I N T H E AU TO M OT I V E S EC TO R
C A S E 2 : A U X I L I A R I E S E L E C T R I F I C AT I O N ( 2 / 2 )
Current booster iBooster
Source: Bosch
Source: Bosch
The amplification in the braking forced changing from
air (vacuum) to electrically driven
12E VO LU T I O N I N T H E AU TO M OT I V E S EC TO R
C A S E 3 : M AT E R I A L E V O L U T I O N ( 1 / 2 )
There is a general trend to migrate from casted crankshafts to forged ones,
however, it depends on geographical characteristics (e.g. India) or OEMs
preferences (e.g. Ford). Sector in evolution and diversified.
Source: The University Of Toledo, Ali Fatemi, Jonathan Williams and Farzin
Montazersadgh
Comparison between mechanical properties
of forged and casted crankshafts
13E VO LU T I O N I N T H E AU TO M OT I V E S EC TO R
C A S E 3 : M AT E R I A L E V O L U T I O N ( 2 / 2 )
Source: BMW Group, Dr. Johannes Staeves, GALM, 24.04.20
14E VO LU T I O N I N AU TO M OT I V E S EC TO R
CONCLUSIONS
SECTOR CIE AUTOMOTIVE
It is not the first time the sector evolves. CIE has always been on track.
The rhythm of the evolution depends on CIE is present in all main
the market and segments. geographical markets and several
segments.
Evolution breaks the maturity cycle of For CIE, it means higher profitability
the components. as it moves away from commodities.
153) From ICE
to EV
VW Golf (ICE)
Source: UBS Report - Q-Series UBS Evidence Lab Electric Car Teardown – Disruption Ahead? (May 2017)
General Motors Chevrolet Bolt (EV)
16
Source: UBS Report - Q-Series UBS Evidence Lab Electric Car Teardown – Disruption Ahead? (May 2017)I N T E R N A L CO M B U ST I O N E N G I N E ( I C E ) * V E H I C L E
POWERTRAIN
Source: U.S.
Department of Energy
*Abbreviations:
ICE: Internal Combustion Engine (operates on fuel).
HEV: Hybrid Electric Vehicle (operates on ICE plus an assisting battery charged by braking energy for short distances).
PHEV: Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (same as HEV but battery can be charged by plugging).
FCEV: Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle (operates on electricity produced using a fuel cell powered by hydrogen, rather than drawing electricity from a battery).
BEV: Battery Electric Vehicle (fully operates on battery electric power). 17H Y B R I D E L EC T R I C V E H I C L E ( H E V ) *
POWERTRAIN
Source: U.S.
Department of Energy
*Abbreviations:
ICE: Internal Combustion Engine (operates on fuel).
HEV: Hybrid Electric Vehicle (operates on ICE plus an assisting battery charged by braking energy for short distances).
PHEV: Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (same as HEV but battery can be charged by plugging).
FCEV: Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle (operates on electricity produced using a fuel cell powered by hydrogen, rather than drawing electricity from a battery).
BEV: Battery Electric Vehicle (fully operates on battery electric power). 18E L EC T R I C V E H I C L E ( E V ) *
POWERTRAIN
Source: U.S.
Department of Energy
*Abbreviations:
ICE: Internal Combustion Engine (operates on fuel).
HEV: Hybrid Electric Vehicle (operates on ICE plus an assisting battery charged by braking energy for short distances).
PHEV: Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (same as HEV but battery can be charged by plugging).
FCEV: Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle (operates on electricity produced using a fuel cell powered by hydrogen, rather than drawing electricity from a battery).
BEV: Battery Electric Vehicle (fully operates on battery electric power). 19F U E L C E L L E L EC T R I C V E H I C L E ( FC E V ) * ( H Y D RO G E N )
POWERTRAIN
Source: U.S.
Department of Energy
*Abbreviations:
ICE: Internal Combustion Engine (operates on fuel).
HEV: Hybrid Electric Vehicle (operates on ICE plus an assisting battery charged by braking energy for short distances).
PHEV: Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (same as HEV but battery can be charged by plugging).
FCEV: Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle (operates on electricity produced using a fuel cell powered by hydrogen, rather than drawing electricity from a battery).
BEV: Battery Electric Vehicle (fully operates on battery electric power). 204) Electrification:
Scenarios
21E L EC T R I C V E H I C L E P E N E T R AT I O N
FORECASTS 2025
UBS IHS Bosch Schaeffler (Accelerated Scenario)
BEV BEV BEV BEV
9% 4%
(P)HEV 7% (P)HEV 15%
(P)HEV
11% 11%
23%
ICE
80%* ICE
50%
(P)HEV
ICE
ICE 35%
73%*
82%
*Includes Mild Hybrid *Expects 58% of ICE to be
gasoline and 15% to be Diesel.
Source: Schaeffler 2017 Global Auto
Source: UBS Q-Series Report; May 2017. Source: IHS 2017. Source: Bosch Innovation Day 2017.
Industry Conference.
*Abbreviations:
ICE: Internal Combustion Engine (operates on fuel).
HEV: Hybrid Electric Vehicle (operates on ICE plus an assisting battery charged by braking energy for short distances).
PHEV: Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (same as HEV but battery can be charged by plugging).
BEV: Battery Electric Vehicle (fully operates on battery electric power).
22E L EC T R I C V E H I C L E P E N E T R AT I O N
FORECASTS 2025
Faurecia Continental Roland Berger MCPI Energies
BEV BEV BEV BEV
7% 8% 7% 5% HEV
9%
(P)HEV
(P)HEV HEV
18%
24% 25%
ICE ICE
69%* ICE 68%*
74% ICE
86%
*Expects 57% of ICE to be *Expects 56% of ICE to be
gasoline and 12% to be Diesel. gasoline and 12% to be Diesel.
Source: Faurecia Investor’s Day, June 2017. Source: UBS Q-Series Report; May 2017. Source: Faurecia Investor’s Day, June 2017. Source: MDPI Energies Journal 2017.
*Abbreviations:
ICE: Internal Combustion Engine (operates on fuel).
HEV: Hybrid Electric Vehicle (operates on ICE plus an assisting battery charged by braking energy for short distances).
PHEV: Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (same as HEV but battery can be charged by plugging).
BEV: Battery Electric Vehicle (fully operates on battery electric power).
23The diversity of forecasts for short
and medium term reflects how
sensible the EV growth is to a large
number of uncertainties.
245) Uncertainties
concerning EVs
25ELECTRIFICATION
IS A REALITY.
BUT THERE IS A WIDE RANGE OF
UNCERTAINTIES THAT CAN
ACCELERATE MORE OR LESS THE
DEVELOPMENT AND
COMPETITIVENESS OF THE EV.
26U N C E RTA I N T I E S
CONSUMER CONCERNS
Source: Breakthrough of electric vehicle threatens European car industry by ING Economics Department, July 2017
“The car industry is at a turning point. Battery electric
vehicles (BEV) are becoming increasingly competitive.
The major barriers to demand – charging infrastructure,
range and pricing - are about to be broken”:
“Charging infrastructure: ultra fast charging of batteries will enable a
300km charge in 20 minutes. This will further improve over time.”
“Range anxiety: New battery technology should improve range to increasingly
meet consumer expectations from 2020 onwards.”
“Pricing and total cost of ownership: Battery costs continue to decline.
Although purchase prices will remain relatively high for quite some time,
electric vehicles have low costs of operation. This should enable a high
range battery electric vehicle to become cost competitive (on total cost of
Source: UBS Report - Q-Series UBS Evidence Lab Electric Car Teardown – Disruption Ahead? (May 2017) ownership) with a comparable petrol car in 2024.”
Price, range anxiety and charging time are key consumer concerns
27U N C E RTA I N T I E S
R AW M AT E R I A L AVA I L A B I L I T Y
Source: El País (November 2017)
Is Lithium supply as easy to ramp up as it
is abundant?
Lithium is relatively abundant. Yet
successfully designing, building,
commissioning and maintaining output from
brine and hard-rock deposits is more
technically challenging than many other
mineral commodities. A shortage of
experienced knowhow, lengthy development
timelines, process plant issues and quality
differentials present
challenges likely to result in more gradual
supply growth than developers may wish for. Source: UBS Report - Q-Series UBS Evidence Lab Electric Car Teardown – Disruption Ahead? (May 2017)
As demand these materials grows, their availability is questioned
28U N C E RTA I N T I E S
R AW M AT E R I A L C O S T S
Source: Reuters (August 2017)
Lithium Price Evolution
Source: LME (Nov 2017)
Source: Bloomberg/CRU Group (August
Source: MDPI Energies Journal 2017 2017)
As demand these materials grows, their price increases significantly
29U N C E RTA I N T I E S
B AT T E R Y C O S T S
Source: MDPI Energies Journal 2017
“While policy and consumer behaviour are difficult to predict,
battery costs are coming down fast. We're already ahead of lithium-
ion battery costs projected for 2030. And with 10 battery
gigafactories under development around the world, battery costs
and prices are expected to further outpace projections.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie, July 17
https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/everyone-is-revising-electric-vehicle-forecasts-upward#gs.Sy=GPno
Battery costs are expected to be reduced
Source: Elektrel quoting McKinsey 30U N C E RTA I N T I E S
F U E L B A N I N C I T I E S : S T R O N G E R F U E L C O N S U M P T I O N A N D Z E R O E M I S S I O N M A N D AT E S
Average emissions of the EU fleet
of new cars in 2030 will have to be
30% lower than in 2021. For the
EU fleet of new vans in 2030, the
reduction also amounts to 30%.
Legislation evolution can affect the penetration of EVs
31U N C E RTA I N T I E S
GRANTS ON HEV & EV
Evolution of BEV Sales in Denmark:
Source: Bloomberg Markets, June 2017
Grants evolution can change the buyer decisions. (Anticipation, postponing, cancelling…)
32U N C E RTA I N T I E S
HUGE INVESTMENT IN CHARGING INFRASTRUCTURES
Source: Cinco Días https://cincodias.elpais.com/cincodias/2017/04/21/companias/1492777826_740308.html (April 2017)
Source: UBS Report - Q-Series UBS Evidence Lab Electric Car Teardown – Disruption Ahead? (May 2017)
Infrastructure requirements are huge and their returns uncertain
33U N C E RTA I N T I E S
H U G E I N V E S T M E N T I N B AT T E R Y FA C T O R I E S
Battery factories investment
requirements are huge
Tesla in 2013 said…:
Source: Wood Mackenzie, June 17
https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/10-battery-gigafactories-are-now-in-progress-
and-musk-may-add-4-more#gs.em7MLmw
34U N C E RTA I N T I E S
REAL EMISSIONS
Source: Motor.es, July 2017.
Source: Expansión, 11/11/2017. Source: Union of Concerned Scientists.
EV do produce pollution but studies show that they do far less
than equivalent ICE vehicles
35U N C E RTA I N T I E S
P R O F I TA B I L I T Y I N R I S K
Source: Automotive News
Source: El Mundo
EV needs volume to be
profitable
Source: UBS Report - Q-Series UBS Evidence Lab Electric Car Teardown – Disruption Ahead? (May 2017)
36U N C E RTA I N T I E S
D I V E R S I F I E D W O R L D : E V S A L E S D ATA I N 2 0 1 6
Source: Movilidad Eléctrica; datos de ventas de vehículos eléctricos e híbridos
The majority of worldwide sales of EV are concentrated in China and Europe,
followed by the US
37U N C E RTA I N T I E S
DIVERSIFIED WORLD
Electrification is expected to occur
in the first place in China and
Europe – as well as US if Trump is
successor is “greener”. The rest of
the world will probably take longer
due to the fact that they have less
US buyers were expected to
incentives (governmental switch to smaller cars but
legislation, subsidies, etc.). low fuel prices have stopped
the trend:
38
Source: UBS Report - Q-Series UBS Evidence Lab Electric Car Teardown –
Disruption Ahead? (May 2017)6) Other Trends
Diesel &
Autonomous Car
39D I E S E L V E H I C L ES
C O M M U N I C AT I N G V E S S E L S
There is a clear trend to decrease Diesel engine,
demand is falling. So far, Diesel and Gasoline
volumes are communicating vessels
Headline of the news Body of the news
40D I E S E L V E H I C L ES
FORECASTS 2025
Faurecia IHS Roland Berger
ICE BEV ICE BEV
BEV ICE Diesel
Diesel 4% Diesel 7%
7% 15%
12% (P)HEV 12%
(P)HEV 23% HEV
24% 25%
ICE ICE
ICE
Gasoline Gasoline
Gasoline
57% 56%
58%
Source: Faurecia Investor’s Day, June 2017. Source: IHS 2017. Source: Faurecia Investor’s Day, June 2017.
*Abbreviations:
ICE: Internal Combustion Engine (operates on fuel).
HEV: Hybrid Electric Vehicle (operates on ICE plus an assisting battery charged by braking energy for short distances).
PHEV: Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (same as HEV but battery can be charged by plugging).
BEV: Battery Electric Vehicle (fully operates on battery electric power).
41D I E S E L V E H I C L ES
ICE IS ALSO MOVING
Source: Automotive Engineering, October 2017.
The perfect mix between the advantages of the
diesel and gasoline engines
42AU TO N O M O U S V E H I C L E
Source: ACEA (European Automobile Manufacturers Association).
Autonomous vehicle could even become a more
effective way of emission reduction than EV
43AU TO N O M O U S V E H I C L E
Source: Bosch Innovation Day 2017
First step in the autonomous road map implies a drastic emissions reduction,
without added cost.
44AU TO N O M O U S V E H I C L E
Source: Prime Research, “Smart Efficiency and Digital Intelligence”.
Entry of new players coming from software sector is not so clear as some sources
expects. Automotive sector has already a high content of software developments
457) CIE Automotive:
constant adaptation
46C I E SA L E S P I E BY V E H I C L E A R EA C I E G RO U P
Structural Parts,
Chassis &
Drivetrain Suspension
25% 28%
Interior &
Engine & Exterior Trim
Gearbox 22%
25%
Includes MHCV, Two-wheeler and
Tractors.
Different pace in different geographies.
Small yearly commercial effort (2%).
47C I E SA L E S P I E BY V E H I C L E A R EA M A H I N D R A C I E
Powertrain
24% Includes Two-wheelers.
Comm Vehicles & Different pace in
different geographies.
Tractors
52%
Interior & Drivetrain
Exterior Trim 17%
1%
Structure &
Chassis
6%
48P OT E N T I A L E L EC T R I F I C AT I O N E F F EC T S O N C I E
Powertrain
Components Additional
Outsourcing
Gearbox
New components for new
Components
ICE engine generations
New components for new
ICE gearbox generations
New components
for (P)HEV
New components
for BEV
Market
49O P P O RT U N I T I E S
ADDITIONAL OUTSOURCING
Source: Breakthrough of electric vehicle threatens European car industry by ING Economics Department, July 2017
New developments and technologies (EV, batteries, connectivity, autonomous,…)
will need an enormous effort from OEM and main Tier1 (resources and Capex).
Traditional technologies could be outsource to reduce efforts
50A L R EA DY T H E R E
ALREADY IN SERIAL PRODUCTION
OEMs and Tier1 Technologies
Renault Stamping
Nissan Plastic
Tesla Aluminium & Machining
M&M Reva Forging
Borg Warner
CIE Automotive is already working with
the key players
51A L R EA DY T H E R E
R E N A U LT
Platine assembles
Aluminium
Battery support
Aluminium
End plate
Aluminium
52A L R EA DY T H E R E
R E N A U LT
Battery structure
Metal stamping Winding hub
Metal stamping
Carter battery charger cover
Metal stamping
Lower carter battery cover
Metal stamping
Upper carter battery cover
Metal stamping
53A L R EA DY T H E R E
NISSAN
e-Reducer Housing Clutch
Aluminium
e-Reducer Housing Trans Case
Aluminium
54A L R EA DY T H E R E
TESLA
Aluminium battery cover
Stamping & welding
Corners (BIW) Skid plate (BIW)
Stamping & welding Stamping & ecoat (painting)
Floor (battery parts)
Stamping, riveting, welding & painting
Wall (battery parts) Cross member (battery parts)
Stamping & riveting Stamping & welding
55A L R EA DY T H E R E
M &M R E VA
Rear spindle
Forging
Battery pack
Composites
56A L R EA DY T H E R E
BORG WARNER
Source: Autogreen Magazine
Rotor components
Forging and machining
57A L R EA DY T H E R E
I N T E G R AT E D F R O M V E R Y E A R LY S TA G E S
Diversity of partners & new players
Working with OEMs, Tier 1 in electric motors, electronics, Technological Centres,
and Universities in R&D projects.
58A L R EA DY T H E R E
I N T E G R AT E D F R O M V E R Y E A R LY S TA G E S
Analysing different type of architectures
Multi-technological environment
59A L R EA DY T H E R E
REAL EXAMPLES
Demonstration in real car
R&D projects involving customers.
Integrated in a ZOE vehicle.
Tested in Renault test circuit at
Paris.
Exceeding the requirements.
60O P P O RT U N I T I E S
N AT U R A L E V O L U T I O N
Some components could have direct substitute in the new powertrains
ICE component EV component
61O P P O RT U N I T I E S
N E W PA R T S
Inverter (DC/AC) Motor controller
Source: Renault
Source: Toyota (Prius 3rd Gen) Source: Delphi
Converter (DC/AC) Charger
Source: EV-Guide (Delphi 2,2 kW) Source: Delphi
62O P P O RT U N I T I E S
N E W PA R T S
Battery module
Source: Green Car Congress 2017. Audi A3
63O P P O RT U N I T I E S
N E W PA R T S
Battery cells stacking Battery module. Metal
Source: Automotive Energy Supplier Corporation
Source: Toyota
Battery module. Plastic
Running project at CIE
Examples
Source: KIA
64O P P O RT U N I T I E S
N E W PA R T S
Battery cooling
Charging port
Source: EV-Guide
Charging port
Source: Green Car Congress 2017. Audi A3
Source: Delphi
65Managing high
value added
processes
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