Exploring Opportunities Amid Covid-19 - Informa
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For a full copy of this deck email:
Maria.ruaaguete@Omdia.com
#TBITalks
Exploring Opportunities
Amid Covid-19
@maria_aguete
#Omdia
Maria Rua Aguete
Executive Director, Media & Entertainment
Maria.ruaaguete@Omdia.com © 2020 Omdia Brought to you by Informa Tech
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Page 2
Information Classification: General
COVID-19 impact summary Page 3 © 2020 Omdia
The overall impact across consumer digital services will be driven
mostly by e-commerce
Source: Omdia *Games includes esports Note: This chart is just an illustration of the likely outcome. Omdia
**Direct consumer spend on non-gaming apps will provide a detailed quantitative analysis in a subsequent report.
Page 4 © 2020 Omdia
Information Classification: General
Impact summary
Service segment Revenue impact What to expect Expected duration*
TV content Neutral In-home TV viewing increases 6m
Demand for children, family and news content grows 6m
Reduction in live event content; e.g. sports 1y
FTA TV Neutral Catalogue finds favour as viewing increases 1y
Adding content makes sense 1y
Uncertainty over long-term TV advertising budgets 2y
Pay TV Negative ‘Cord shaving’ increases 2y
Bundling and discounts to take hold 2y
Broadband services get faster 2y
OTT video Very positive Increased consumption at home/increased uptake of OTT services 6m
SVOD subscriptions will grow 6m
AVOD services can capitalize on increased viewership 6m
Cinema Very negative Cinemas shutting down as people go into lockdown 1y
Distributors delay/move to digital for film releases 1y
Pent up demand for cinema may lead to strong re-opening 1y
*Duration up to the time mentioned. This is an estimate based on whether the impact is purely driven by quarantines or lockdowns, or will continue longer due to post pandemic recession, or simply accelerating an ongoing trend
Source: Omdia © 2020 Omdia
Page 5 © 2020 Omdia
Information Classification: General
The shutdown has impacted film and TV production
• Bans on gatherings, travel etc stopped • Crisis has foregrounded digital production: eg
productions in their tracks in March sports streamer DAZN is producing 400 pieces
• Many major US producers (Disney, Netflix, of original content per week using virtual
Warner Bros) paused production in US and production tools
Canada in March
• The US networks would usually be unveiling
their new fall seasons to advertisers and buyers
• 2008 Hollywood writers’ strike (100-day
production shutdown) is estimated to have cost
$2.5 billion
• ITV has cut its 2020 programming budget by
£100 million (approx. 10%) and furloughed 15%
of UK workforce
• Government support schemes set up including
tax deferrals, production grants, support for
freelances
Source: Omdia etc
Page 6 © 2020 Omdia
Information Classification: General
Pay TV: What to expect
• Cord-shaving increases as users cancel costly channels and sports-
focused add-ons in favour of less expensive packages.
Cord-shaving • Reduction in the price of the most expensive pay-TV packages.
increases • Employee quarantine and consumer reluctance to let installers into
their homes create barriers for new subscription additions.
• In parallel, viewing time of linear TV to increase sharply.
Bundling and • Bundling will help to get new products in front of potential
customers; new reduced price bundles may find favor with price-
discounts to take sensitive subscribers.
hold • Increase in promotions.
• Telco operators will focus on infrastructure upgrade to meet the
Broadband services increase in demand for broadband services but might face setbacks
with technicians not able to make house calls.
get faster, cheaper • Speed upgrades will see an uptick as more users at home require
more bandwidth and unlimited data usage.
Page 7 © 2020 Omdia
Information Classification: General
OTT video: What to expect
Increased
consumption at • People sign up temporarily to new services.
• Increased demand on home broadband bandwidth to
home/increased accommodate OTT video consumption.
uptake of OTT • As consumers increasingly become more frugal, pay-TV
services subscriptions will transition to online video services.
Growing demand for • Increase in uptake of both generalist and specialist services.
• Increased levels of viewership for children’s and family content.
children’s and family
• Increased demand for content might negatively affect smaller
content services unable to offer wide library of content.
• Live contents to be replaced with other shows or game replays.
Lack of live sports • Sports-focused OTTs are at risk for loss of revenue.
content; disrupted • Once production disruption starts affecting the new content
production release schedule, SVOD services will find subscription acquisition
and retention more challenging.
Page 8 © 2020 Omdia
Information Classification: General
Linear TV viewing time surges across Western Europe: Linear TV viewing time YoY
Western Europe March 2019-2020 comparison
France • Linear TV viewing time in France increased by 19.6% to reach 4 hours 29
minutes per-person per-day in March 2020, 44 minutes more than in 2019
during the same period.
• Continuous news channels BFMTV and LCI achieved in March the best
30.2% up
month in their history. (Week 13)
Germany • Average viewing time in Germany stood at 4 hours 4 minutes in March 2020,
6.3% up
up 8% or a full 18 minutes more than March 2019. (March)
8% up
Italy • Italians are spending 5 hours 56 minutes a day in front of the TV screen, 1 (March)
hour 48 minutes more than last year.
• Between 8-28 March an average of 14.5 million Italians tuned into a TV set, Lockdown:
4.4 million more than last year and 2 million more than the previous week. Week 10
Week 11 Italy 19.6% up
Spain • Viewing time skyrocketed to 4 hours 44 minutes per-person per-day in Week 12 France, Spain (March) 43.5% up
March 2020, a 21.9% increase on March 2019. Week 13 UK, Germany (Week 11-13)
• March 2020 sets a new record for monthly historical consumption in Spain,
the previous record for live TV consumption stood at 4 hours 32 minutes in
February 2013. 21.9% up
(March)
UK • Linear TV viewing time in the UK increased by 6.3% in March 2020, with TV
consumption growing rapidly in week 12 and week 13.
• Week 13 coincides with the first week of lockdown across the UK. Linear TV
viewing time totalled 3 hours 56 minutes in week 13 – an increase of 30.2%
Notes: Linear viewing includes TSV & Catch-up. Week number adheres to the ISO-8601 standard
(52 minutes) compared with the corresponding period a year earlier. Source: Omdia, Spain: Barlovento Comunicación/Kantar Media, Italy: Auditel/Nielsen,
Germany: AGF, France: Mediametrie, UK: BARB © 2020 Omdia
➢ Both the UK and Germany have a lower percentage increase in March 2020 due to their
lockdowns starting a week (or two for Italy) later than the other European countries featured.
© 2020 Omdia
Information Classification: Generaland in the rest of the world , with China TV viewing reaching 7 hours per day
East Asia and Oceania: Linear TV viewing comparisons 2019-2020
21.5% up
Week 9 (peak week)
22.7% up
Q4 2019 - Q1 2020
Lockdowns
Jan
Week 4 China
Week 5
Feb
Week 6 - 9
28% up
March Week 8 - 13 2020
Week 10
Week 11
Week 12
Week 13 Australia
Notes: Linear viewing includes TSV & Catch-up. Week number adheres to the ISO-8601 standard
Source: South Korea: Nielsen-CCData, China: NRTA, Australia: Oztam © 2020 Omdia
© 2020 Omdia
Information Classification: GeneralNew D2C video services arrived in Europe during the last two
months:
6 © 2020 Omdia
Information Classification: GeneralNetflix : production closures are likely to impact subscriber growth
Global: Netflix subscriptions by year and scenario
275
type
• In the longer term however, Netflix will suffer from disrupted 250
content creation schedule in the same way as other large media
producers.
Subscriptions (m)
• Netflix is more reliant on its original programming than ever. 225
Production closures are likely to impact subscriber growth
towards the end of 2020 or beginning of 2021, dampening the
short term gains brought by quarantine. 200
• Netflix has created a $150 million relief fund for out of work cast
and production crews to support them while they shelter at
home.. 175
150
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Netflix Pre-Covid Forecast Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3
Page 12 © 2020 Omdia
Information Classification: GeneralDisney+ : very strong family catalog Disney+ subscriptions by quarter and scenario type
100
90
80
OTT video subscriptions (m)
70
60
50
40
30
Like all others, Disney will face delays in production of content
but as a brand new OTT subscription service, original content 20
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
bolsters Disney’s service and could impact growth. However,
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
unlike other D2Cs Disney+ is insulated by strong a family
Pre-COVID Disney+ forecast Pre-COVID Disney+Hulu+ESPN forecast
catalog. Scenario 1 Scenario 2
Scenario 3
Source: Omdia © 2020 Omdia
Page 13 © 2020 Omdia
Information Classification: GeneralAs theatres started to close, studios quickly adjusted their release
strategies
Deal Dependent
© 2020 Omdia
Information Classification: GeneralExample US Titles Breaking Traditional Windowing
Cinematic Release VOD & Physical Retail HBO Disney+
76 Days 14 Days 90 Days Deal Dependent
EST Netflix Starz & Epix
Bloodshot (Sony) Birds of Prey (WB) Frozen II (Disney)
• Early EST • Early EST • Early Streaming
• 11 day theatrical window • 46 day theatrical window • March 17th D+
• March 24th EST • March 24 EST • 116 days from theatrical
Onward (Disney)
• Early EST & Streaming
Trolls World Tour (Uni)
• March 20th EST
• Skips Theatrical Window
• 14 days from theatrical
• 48-Hour Rental is first window
• April 3rd D+
• April 10th PVOD at $19.99
• 28 days from theatrical
Page 15 © 2020 Omdia
Information Classification: GeneralThank You
Maria Rua Aguete
Executive Director, Media & Entertainment
Maria.ruaaguete@Omdia.com
© 2020 Omdia Brought to you by Informa TechAbout us
Maria Rua Aguete
Executive Director – Media, Consumer, Service Providers & Platforms
Maria Rua Aguete is an executive director of Media, Service Providers & Platforms at OMDIA.
Maria leads the strategic development and manages the day-to-day operations of a team of
analysts tracking the evolution of global service providers and operators. She created the team
while at Screen Digest, now part of OMDIA following that acquisition in 2010. Their research on
service providers leverages long-standing relationships with operators in all 100+ markets covered
by OMDIA, resulting in the most comprehensive source of television and operator market
intelligence in the world.
Maria.ruaaguete@ihsmarkit.com
@maria_aguete
https://www.linkedin.com/in/maria-rua-aguete-213ba4/
.
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