WFP RAM & Retail/Supply Chain Unit Lebanon National FSSWG - Food Security and Markets Situation Analysis - FSSWG Meeting 8 June 2021
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WFP RAM & Retail/Supply Chain Unit Lebanon National FSSWG – Food Security and Markets Situation Analysis FSSWG Meeting 8 June 2021
Port of Beirut Good Movement from January 2019 till May
2021 (in mt)
➢ A decrease of 21% is noticed when
comparing August 2020 - May 2021
figures against the same period the
previous year.
➢ A decrease of 20% is registered when
comparing January to May 2021 figures
to the same period in 2020.
➢ A decrease of 49% is registered when
comparing May 2021 figures to May
2020 figures.
➢ Subject to change for the May
2021 figures as more data is released!
Source: Port of Beirut data, 2019-2021 as of June 7, 2021, subject to change.Lebanese Customs Imports Statistics Periods Comparison
– Net Weight (mt)
Imports Jan – Dec 2019 Jan – Dec 2020 % Change In 2020, and in comparison, to 2019:
➢ Total imports decreased by 31%.
Cereal 1,251,205 1,369,192 9% ➢ Food Imports (excluding cereals)
decreased by 11%.
Total Food ➢ Food imports decreased by 2%.
(excluding 1,641,992 1,459,597 -11% ➢ Cereal imports increased by 9%.
cereals)
Total Food 2,893,197 2,828,789 -2%
Total 19,835,640 13,670,765 -31%
Source: Lebanese Customs Agency Data – as of June 7, 2021, subject to change.Stock coverage evolution of WFP contracted shops
➢ Further improvements in stock coverage,
reaching same percentages prior to March
disruption events
➢ Shops with more than 2 weeks of stock
coverage now at 82 percent (85 percent
during week of March 8)
➢ By sub offices during the week of May 31:
➢ Contracted shops located in the BML &
South region had the highest shop
coverage above 2 weeks (98 percent),
followed by the Beqaa region (95 percent).
Contracted shops in the north had the
lowest one (55 percent).
➢ Shops in the BML & South region had the
highest 4 weeks stock coverage (71
percent), followed by shops in the Beqaa
region (42 percent) and shops in the north
(23 percent).
Source: Retail Weekly Shop Phone Survey – as of 7 June 2021Subsidized Products Availability – Products Volume– Suppliers Orders Delivery
➢ Based on the first week of June contracted shops assessment survey results from WFP contracted shops:
Reported Week of March 1, Week of April 5, 2021 Week of May 3, 2021 Week of May 31,
2021 2021
Scarcity in certain 68% 60% 51% 55%
Products
Expecting to receive new 94% 83% 95% 97%
orders within one week
Suppliers delivering full 62% 45% 50% 66%
ordered quantities
Scarcity in subsidized 38% 85% 89% 95%
items (at rate of LBP
3,900
Availability of subsidized 79% 72% 67% 54%
products
Suppliers accepting new 64% 42% 40% 15%
subsidized products
orders
Receiving full ordered 1% 1% 1% 1%
subsidized products
quantities
Sources: Retail Weekly Shop Phone Survey – as of 7 June 2021Daily (official and unofficial) exchange rate development between
mid October 2019 and June 6, 2021
• Black market rate (red line) breached
the LBP 13,000 again on May 26, 2021.
➢ Withdrawal from non-fresh money
dollar account in LBP at LBP 3,900
(circular 151) temporarily halted on
June 2, following State Council decision.
Rate reimplemented next day following
meeting at Presidential palace (yellow
line).
➢ Central Bank providing USD dollars to
commercial banks through “Sayrafa”
platform at the rate of USD/LBP 12,000.
➢ Customers to register their demands
with commercial banks and provide
counter value in LBP cash.
➢ Central Bank providing amounts to
commercial banks intermediary banks.
➢ Total amount traded during week of
May 31 reached USD 10 million.
Source: http://lebaneselira.org & https://lirarate.com – reported rates for black market and syndicate
are the average of the buy and sell rates – Reuters -Change of Monthly revised food SMEB price in LPB (national
average)
250,000 14,000
12,722
234,316
➢ Revised Food SMEB recorded a
230,000
213,777 12,000 10% increase between April and
210,000 May 2021, at LBP 234,316.
190,000 10,000
176,203 ➢ The cost of the revised food SMEB
170,000
156,367 8,000 in May 2021 more than four times
150,000 139,138
the cost of the basket back in
127,055129,605 6,000 October 2019 (340% increase).
130,000 125,855
118,069
118,038
108,309
110,000 4,000
95,000
90,701
90,000
72,948 2,000
66,004
70,000 59,420 59,635 61,127
53,216 55,301
50,000 0
Nov-19
Apr-20
Nov-20
Apr-21
Jan-20
Feb-20
Mar-20
Jul-20
Aug-20
Sep-20
Jan-21
Feb-21
Mar-21
Dec-19
May-20
Dec-20
May-21
Oct-19
Jun-20
Oct-20
Food SMEB Unofficial exchange rate
Source: WFP price data, 2020, & 2021 as of 7 June 2021, subject to changes. The weights of the commodities used in the
calculation of the price of the basket was further updated in the calculation of the basket cost from February 2021
onwards. Further revisions to the previously published prices might take place in the future.Price Evolution of Food SMEB components
Food SMEB Components Price m-o-m variation
(SMEB per Individual
Weights) May-21 Apr-21 Oct-19
Apples (1.5Kg) LBP 9,153 32% 358%
Bread (7.02KG) LBP 19,305 7% 83% ➢ Tea registered the highest price
Brown Bulgur (1.95KG) LBP 19,318 -4% 509% increase between April and May 2021
Cabbage (2.7KG) LBP 3,375 11% 11%
(58 percent), followed by powder milk
(41 percent), apples (32 percent), and
Carrots (0.6KG) LBP 2,404 0% 200%
sardine (20 percent).
Chickpeas (0.9KG) LBP 11,500 3% 303%
➢ Sunflower oil registered the highest
Eggs (0.45KG) LBP 5,952 7% 389%
price increase since October 2019
Lentils (0.75KG) LBP 9,371 7% 431% (1,041 percent), followed by powder
Pasta (1.8KG) LBP 20,286 -6% 256% milk (795 percent), sugar (765
Potatoes (2.1KG) LBP 7,754 -7% 269%
Powder Milk (0.6KG) LBP 41,760 41% 795%
percent) and tea (603).
Egyptian Rice (2.4KG) LBP 19,894 -10% 440%
Salt (0.12KG) LBP 240 -20% 220%
Sardine (0.45KG) LBP 20,700 20% 413%
Sugar (0.6KG) LBP 4,739 4% 765%
Sunflower Oil (0.51L) LBP 11,424 8% 1041%
Tea (0.12KG) LBP 13,642 58% 603%
Tomato Paste(0.6KG) LBP 9,000 -7% 188%
White Beans (0.3KG) LBP 4,500 -11% 364%
* Commodities that have certain brands benefiting from the current LBP 3,900 subsidization. Bread benefits from the wheat subsidy at the official rate.
Source: WFP price data, 2020, & 2021 as of 7 June 2021, subject to changes. The weights of the commodities used in the calculation of the price of the basket was further updated in the
calculation of the basket cost from February 2021 onwards. Further revisions to the previously published prices might take place in the future.Change of Weekly revised food SMEB price in 2021 (national average)
versus exchange rate weekly average
250,000 14,000
240,000 237,385
232,808 ➢ Revised Food SMEB weekly price
230,000 228,020 229,481
recorded a 45% increase between
13,000
219,670 220,524 221,294
220,000 beginning of March and end of May
209,081
2021, based on preliminary data from
210,000 207,100
WFP retail database.
200,000 12,000
➢ An increase of 6 percent registered at
190,662
190,000 the beginning of Ramadan, during the
183,605
week of April 12th
180,000
11,000
170,000 166,909
163,154
160,000
150,000 10,000
Week of Week of Week of Week of Week of Week of Week of Week of Week of Week of Week of Week of Week of
March 1, March 8, March 15, March 22, March 29, April 5, April 12, April 19, April 26, May 3, May 10, May 17, May 24,
2021 2021 2021 2021 2021 2021 2021 2021 2021 2021 2021 2021 2021
Revised SMEB Cost Exchange Rate Average
Source: WFP retail price database, 2020, & 2021 as of 7 June 2021, subject to changes. The weights of the commodities
used in the calculation of the price of the basket was further updated in the calculation of the basket cost from
February 2021. Further revisions to the previously published prices might take place in the future. March - April weekly
data based on around 60 percent of shops data.Consumer Price Index (CPI) Development (October 2019 – April
2021)
National & Govenorates CPI Inflation Rate - Baseline October 19 (November 19 - April
2021)
➢ Between October 2019 and
300%
April 2021:
➢ The Consumer Price Index
250% (CPI) witnessed an inflation
223%.
200%
➢ The North registered the
150%
highest increase between
all regions (273%)
100% ➢ Beirut registered the lowest
increase between all
50% regions (178%)
0%
National Beirut Mount Lebanon South Nabatieh Bekaa Nabatieh
Source: Central Administration for Statistics (CAS)Subsidies Removal Latest Updates as of beginning of June 2021
➢ Ministerial consultations to draft subsidies removal and financial support plans on hold.
➢ Latest media sources indicate that financial support card plan will cover 750,000 families. Amount average to be
around USD 137 per family (exact amount vary with family size). Plan has been submitted to the parliament for review
and approval. Funding still unclear.
➢ Rationing “de-facto” happening. Electricity blackouts, medicine and fuel shortages main examples.
➢ Increased electricity blackouts, reaching up to 20 hours in the capital alone, with possibility of full shutdown in coming
few days. Private generators owner will start rationing up to 5 hours per day of electricity supply this week.
➢ President & caretaker Prime Minister provided exceptional approval on June 7 for an advance payment to purchase
fuel oil for the public electricity company. Remains to be seen if Central Bank will provide needed funds.
➢ No Recent changes to bread package prices – Latest prices are:
➢ Large package (980 grams) set at LBP 2,500 if sold at bakeries and LBP 2,750 if sold at retail shops.
➢ Medium package (405 grams) set at LBP 1,500 if sold at bakeries and LBP 1,750 if sold at retail shops.
Source: Naharnet, Al Jadeed NewsLatest Financial/Central Banks Updates ➢ Central Bank approved scheme to pay back USD 400 per month for USD accounts that were formed before the end of October 2019, and as they became in March 2021. Payment scheme includes also paying another USD 400 in LBP, at the rate set by “Sayrafa” platform (currently at USD/LBP 12,000). Circular with more details expected this week. ➢ Latest news indicate that Central Bank will cover half of the required amount for the first year (full cost around USD 2.5 billion), while banks will be required to cover the other half through their own funds. ➢ Central Bank lowered mandatory reserve from the current 15 percent to 14 percent. ➢ Banks ability and willingness to conduct scheme remains to be seen. ➢ Parliament finance & budget committee approved capital control law on June 7. Exact numbers were not set in the current draft law, due to the lack of data from the Central Bank at this stage. ➢ The law for example set LBP withdrawal limit between 15 and 20 million per month, while dollar accounts can withdraw between USD 400 and USD 800 per month. ➢ For transfers abroad, certain exceptions are allowed, such as for those studying abroad or for external medical operations. The limit for those ranges between USD 25 thousand and 50 thousand per year. ➢ Additional LBP withdrawal limits, as Central Bank try to decrease LBP amount in circulation (estimated at LBP 38.24 trillion in April 2021, a 423 percent increase from October 2019 level of LBP 7.31 trillion) Source: , LBC, Blom Bank, L'Orient Today, LBC News
Latest Combustible Fuel Price Inflation & News
➢ Fuel shortage across the country.
Petrol stations rationing supplies.
➢ Rationing reached 50 percent of
market needs and is expected to
continue in the near future.
Date Gasoline 95 Oct Diesel Cooking Gas
➢ Shortage due to delays in approving
December 2020 24,300 16,200 18,600 payments by the Central Bank.
Shipments already at sea awaiting
May 19, 2021 40,900 28,600 25,500 approval to offload.
Price increase 16,600 12,400 6,900 ➢ No update to price bulleting since May
19, due to unclarity on which price to
% increase 68 77 37 sell on, as well as unclarity on
subsidization mechanism
➢ Gasoline price has increased by 68
percent, diesel by 77 percent, and
cooking gas by 37 percent, between
beginning of December 2020 and mid
May 2021.
Source: https://www.iptgroup.com.lb/ipt/en/our-stations/fuel-prices & MTV NewsThanks!
Questions?
WFP Lebanon
RAM & Retail/Supply Chain UnitWFP RAM 2020 Key Products VASyR 2020 (UNHCR/UNICEF/WFP) Markets Update: January, February, April, May, June, August, December, March 2021 mVAM Assessments (with the World Bank): July/August, September/October, November/December Web Survey: Round 1, Round 2 Review of the SMEB (2020) (Joint work) MEB for Syrian Refugees in Lebanon Study Beirut Port Explosion: Impact on Key Economic and Food Security Indicator Basic Needs Outcome Monitoring: February, July, December 2020
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