Financial Turmoil: The new federal aid package - Edunomics ...

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Financial Turmoil: The new federal aid package - Edunomics ...
Financial Turmoil:
The new federal aid package
              Jan. 5, 2021; Revised Jan. 6, 2021

              Marguerite Roza
              Edunomics Lab, Georgetown University
              MR1170@georgetown.edu
              @MargueriteRoza

              Hannah Jarmolowski
              HJ254@georgetown.edu

              Slides available at edunomicslab.org

                                  ©2021 Edunomics Lab, Georgetown University
Financial Turmoil: The new federal aid package - Edunomics ...
New law (Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2021)

                                                                           COVID Relief
      2021 Omnibus Annual Fed.
         Spending Bill $1.4T                      +                          $900 B
                                                                         Relevant portions for K-12

 K-12 got slightly more than prior yr $               ESSER = $54B                                  GEER = $4B
                                                                                                    Governors’ Emerg.

 Title I = $16.5B = up 1.4%
                                                      K-12 stabilization fund                       Ed Relief

                                                                                                    $10B for Child
 IDEA = $14.1B = up 1.3%                                                                            Care

 Slight increases to:
 Title II, IV                 Child care = $85B
 After school programs        = up 7.5%
                                                                                                    $3.2B for
 Career and tech                                                                                    broadband
 Head Start
                                                      $250M Head Start   $818M BIE and outlying areas

                                                                                    ©2021 Edunomics Lab, Georgetown University
Financial Turmoil: The new federal aid package - Edunomics ...
K-12 portions of 2021 Federal COVID Relief Package

                                  ESSER = $54B ~ $1000pp                                                                                     GEER = $4B
                                                                                                                                $1.25B for             $2.75B for
                                                                                                             SEA                Governor’s
   •     90% allocated to LEAs via Title I formula.                                                                                                non-public schools
                                                                                                             discretion        discretion for       (no scholarships)
                                                                                                             over 9.5%           K-12 & HE
   •     LEAs can multiply CARES/ESSER allocation by 4 to get new sum.*
   •     It’s equivalent to 3X typical Title I part A.
   •     LEAs not eligible for Title I get none of this portion.
                                                                                                                                    $10B for Child Care and
                                                                                                                                   Development Block Grant
   •     Broad flexibility in use of funds (NOT subject to Title I rules).                                                                 Program
   •     Emphasis on “addressing learning loss.”

   •     Must be spent by 9/2022, so funds can be stretched across                                                              $3.2B for emergency
         three school years. Update: Must be spent by 9/2023**, so                                           0.5% = SEA         broadband for families
         funds can be stretched across four school years.                                                      admin

   $250M Head Start                            $818M BIE and outlying areas

*ESSER estimates available via Whiteboard Advisors: https://public.tableau.com/views/HR133ESSERStimulusAllocations/54BESSERLEAEstimates?:showVizHome=n&:embed=y#2
**The Tydings Amendment allows for this one-year extension of what is written in the law.
Federal ESSER fact sheet: https://oese.ed.gov/files/2021/01/Final_ESSERII_Factsheet_1.5.21.pdf

                                                                                                                               ©2021 Edunomics Lab, Georgetown University
K-12 portions of 2021 Federal COVID Relief Package

                                           ESSER = $54B ~ $1000pp                                                         GEER = $4B
                                                                                                               $1.25B for           $2.75B for
                                            With CARES, several SEAs                             SEA           Governor’s       non-public schools
    •      90% allocated to LEAs via Title I formula
                                                  allocated some                                 discretion   discretion for     (no scholarships)
                                              discretionary $ to LEAs                            over 9.5%      K-12 & HE
    •      LEAs can multiply CARES/ESSER allocation
                                               that don’tby
                                                          get4 Title
                                                               to getI new sum
    •      It’s equivalent to 3X typical Title I part A.                                                               Allocations to private
    •      LEAs not eligible for Title I get none of this portion.
                                                                                                                  $10Bschools
                                                                                                                       for Childmust  be made
                                                                                                                                 Care and
                                                                                                                       or funding
                                                                                                  No dedicated Development     Blockreturned.
                                                                                                                                     Grant
    •                                               Significant
          Broad flexibility in use of funds (NOT subject to TitleSEA  admin
                                                                  I rules).                                              Program
                                                                                                   E-rate $, but
    •     Emphasis on “addressing learning loss.” funding = 4-10% increase.
                                                                                                 flex $ available
                                                     SEAs: beware of an
    •     Must be spent by 9/2022, so funds can beagency     funding
                                                      stretched        cliff.
                                                                  across
                                                                                                              $3.2B for emergency
          three school years. Update: Must be spent by 9/2023*, so
                                                                                                 0.5% = SEA   broadband for families
          funds can be stretched across four school years.                                         admin
    $250M Headstart                                        $818M BIA and outlying areas

*The Tydings Amendment allows for this one-year extension of what is written in the law.
Federal ESSER fact sheet: https://oese.ed.gov/files/2021/01/Final_ESSERII_Factsheet_1.5.21.pdf

                                                                                                              ©2021 Edunomics Lab, Georgetown University
Will we have a funding cliff?
                                                                                                 Leaders will
                                                                                                 want to pace
             Federal $ enables districts to maintain
             cost structure, but eventually runs out                                             themselves
                                                                                                 and plan
                                                                    Funding cliffs               ahead for
                                              e  t rend             are typical
                             tate Rev
                                          en u                                                   when federal
                         2 S                                        when federal
                   l K-1                                                                         aid ends.
             Typica             $  fi l l s gaps                    relief aid stops
                           F ed                     nues                                         (Update: Districts
                                             R ev  e
           COVID-impacted K-12 State                                                             can stretch funds to
                                                                                                 2023.)
    2020                     2021                     2022              2023           2024

                                                                 Teacher salaries stay flat

                                                           Furloughs     Few new investments
 COVID HITS!                                                / layoffs
                                                                        Districts rebuild reserves

                                                                                        ©2021 Edunomics Lab, Georgetown University
Because the funds                                                                 New ESSER
                                                                                                                                              New ESSER
                                                                                                                                              $1,695pp
                                                                                     =$439pp
   flow via the Title I
                                                                                           Of two NY
   formula, higher-                                                                        districts,
   poverty districts will                                          $6,585
                                                                                           Poughkeepsie
                                                                                           has higher                      $14,969
   generally receive                                                                       poverty levels
                                                                                           so will get
   more ESSER $ per                                                                        much more
                                                                                          $20,340
                                                                                                                                                          ESSER $ Per
                                                                                                                                                          Pupil
                                                                                           federal aid per                              $20,896
   pupil.                                                                                    pp
                                                                                           pupil                                   pp
                                                                                                                                                          State $ Per
                                                                                                                                                          Pupil
   That said, higher-                                                                                                               4046                  Local $ Per
   poverty districts are                                          $13,755
                                                                                                                                  students
                                                                                                                                  73% FRL
                                                                                                                                                          Pupil
                                                                5210 students
   more vulnerable to                                              37% FRL
                                                                                                                           $5,927

   cuts in state funding.                                       S. Colonie                                            Poughkeepsie
                                                              5,210 students                                          4,046 students
                                                                 37% FRL                                                 73% FRL
ESSER estimates from Whiteboard Advisors: https://public.tableau.com/views/HR133ESSERStimulusAllocations/54BESSERLEAEstimates?:showVizHome=n&:embed=y#2

                                                                                                                             ©2021 Edunomics Lab, Georgetown University
New ESSER               Despite both
   But the Title I                                                               $2,832 pp               being high-
                                                                                                                                   New ESSER
   formula has its                                                                                       poverty CA
                                                                                                                                   $1,437 pp
                                                                                                         districts,
   quirks.                                                                                               Fresno will get
                                                                                                         nearly double
                                                                                                         the federal aid
   Larger districts                                  Total Per-Pupil                                     per pupil
                                                     $ (FY19) Before
   receive more                                      ESSER
   Title I $ per                                     ESSER $ Per                 $13,641
                                                                                 $13,641 pp                                        $13,325 pp
                                                     Pupil
   student, even
   among districts
   with similar                                                               Fresno Unified                                   Dos Palos Oro
                                                                             81,781 students                                      Unified
   poverty levels.                                                                                                             2,527 students
                                                                                 87% FRL
                                                                                                                                  90% FRL

ESSER estimates from Whiteboard Advisors: https://public.tableau.com/views/HR133ESSERStimulusAllocations/54BESSERLEAEstimates?:showVizHome=n&:embed=y#2

                                                                                                                            ©2021 Edunomics Lab, Georgetown University
Is the federal aid enough to cover the gaps in state funds?
                                                                                                                                                                                          ME

      It generally depends on the state.
                                    WA

                                                               MT                        ND
                                                                                                                                                                                VT
                                                                                                                                                                                     NH        Delaware = 1%
                                                                                                                                                                                               MA

     Aid = ~ 8% boost for typical district.                                                                                                                                                    gap in 2021
                                                                                                          MN                                                               NY
                               OR
                                                                                                                                                                                                RI
                                                ID
                                                                                           SD
                                                                                                                          WI
                                                                                                                                       MI                                                  CT  revenues
                                                                    WY                                                                                           PA             NJ
                                                                                                                                                                                     DE
                                                                                                               IA                                                          MD
                                                                                                                                                 OH

                                                                  In most states, revenue
                                                                                           NE                                                                                        Washington D.C.
                                                                                                                               IL     IN
                                         NV                                                                                                                WV         VA

                                                          UT

                                                                 trends are still unfolding.
                          CA                                             CO                                                                 KY
                                                                                                KS                  MO
                                                                                                                                                                      NC

                                                                                                                                       TN
                                                                                                                                                                 SC

                                                                                                          Some states are more/ less
                                                                                                     OK              AR
                                                     AZ               NM
                                                                                                                                                      GA
                                                                                                                                        AL
                                                                                                                                MS

                                                                                                           dependent on state $ (vs
                 AK

    Hawai’i = 23%                                                                             TX                         LA

                                                                                                                                                                 FL
    gap in 2021
    revenues                                   HI
                                                                                                              local) than others.
Update: State-by-state SEA ESSER allocation table available: https://oese.ed.gov/files/2021/01/Final_ESSERII_Methodology_Table_1.5.21.pdf

                                                                                                                                                                ©2021 Edunomics Lab, Georgetown University
Questions?
                                   How should SEAs
                                   allocate the 9.5%?
  Since states didn’t get funds
  to backfill their budgets, can
                                    COULD START WITH
                                    DATA: Comparing
                                                                                  Does the
    they cut K-12 and backfill      state/local $ in districts                     district
                                    vs poverty, etc. and use
      with federal K-12 aid?        the 9.5% to address                          have to be
                                    problematic gaps.                            in-person
  To a point. ”Maintenance of                                                    to use the
  Effort” prohibits cutting K-12
  more than other areas of state                                                  money?
  budget.
                                                                                                    No

                                                                 ©2021 Edunomics Lab, Georgetown University
Questions?
                                                                            Can districts use it        Yes, but it won’t go very far.
          Is it enough                                                      for COVID testing?          At ~$125 per test*, and 2
                                                                                                        tests pp/week, testing costs =
         to cover PPE?                                                                                  $1000pp per month.

                      Yes. PPE costs are
                      typically projected                                             What if my district can’t spend it
                      at ~ $250 pp.*
                                                                                             all by Sept. 2022?
                                                                                     Update: Sept, 2023 is the deadline.
               It goes back to the feds, though $ is highly flexible                                 Note too that districts now have ‘til
               (instruction, summer services, contracts, tutoring,                                   12/2021 9/2022** to spend CARES,
               ventilation, etc.), and can be stretched across 3 school years.                       so may integrate those spending
                                                                                                     plans.
 * See CDC: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6950e1.htm?s_cid=mm6950e1_w
 ** Federal ESSER fact sheet: https://oese.ed.gov/files/2021/01/Final_ESSERII_Factsheet_1.5.21.pdf

                                                                                                            ©2021 Edunomics Lab, Georgetown University
Questions?                                                                                  Avoid recurring obligations
                                                                    How do districts        (raises, new hires).

         How should my                                              avert fiscal cliff?     Seek one-time investments.
                                                                                            If labor is needed, use contract
                                                                                            labor or stipends for current
         district spend it?                                                                 staff.

   !!!
                                                                        Will districts be
   What will help students?
   Which students suffering learning                                    judged in rear
                                                                                              You betcha! There are robust
   loss and by how much?
   What options avert a fiscal cliff?
                                                                        view mirror for       reporting requirements and
                                                                           how they           one-time sums of this size
                                                                                              draw lots of attention.
                                                                           spend it?          Reporting emphasis will be on
                                                                                              how money addressed
                                                                                              learning loss.

*https://www.healthsystemtracker.org/brief/covid-19-test-prices-and-payment-policy/

                                                                                                ©2021 Edunomics Lab, Georgetown University
This K-12 financial story is far from over!           Join our next 30-minute webinar:
                                                      Impacts of enrollment shifts and learning loss

Q&A                                                   on district finances
                                                      Tuesday, January 19, 10am PT / 1pm ET
                                                      http://bit.ly/EdLabJan19
Note: Q&A is off the record unless otherwise stated
 Marguerite Roza
 Edunomics Lab, Georgetown University
 MR1170@georgetown.edu
 @MargueriteRoza

 Hannah Jarmolowski
 HJ254@georgetown.edu

Visit EdunomicsLab.org for resources on
how financial turmoil is impacting K-12

                                                                                ©2021 Edunomics Lab, Georgetown University
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