Hospitality Exchange Gareth Hetherington - Director: Ulster University Economic Policy Centre
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Hospitality Exchange
An economic overview
Gareth Hetherington
Director: Ulster University Economic Policy Centre
October 2018
@UlsterUniEPC
Recent economic performance
Betwixt and between
Good news but challenges ahead
The positive The concerns
• Economy continues to create • High levels of economic
jobs and unemployment is at inactivity
record lows
• Over-reliance on consumer
• Exchange rate is providing a spending
boost to tourism and others
• Brexit rollercoaster
• US growth still strong helping
• Global geo-political tensions
drive global growth
@UlsterUniEPC
The all island context
The labour market north and south compared to the UK
Quarterly employment (2008 Q2 = 100), NI, UK & ROI,
2008-2018
Source: ONS Workforce jobs (UK & NI), CSO (15+ in employment ROI)
@UlsterUniEPC
Range of sectors growing
Tourism – an important part of the NI growth story
Employment change by sector, NI, Q1 2012 – Q1 2018
Admin' & support
Manufacturing
Professional services
Other service activities
Restaurants and hotels
Health & social work
Wholesale & retail
ICT
Arts & entertainment
Agriculture
Education
Water supply & waste 85,000 total jobs created
Elect' & gas 9,400 in hotels & restaurants
People employed by households
Mining
Finance & insurance
Construction
Real estate
Transport & storage
Public admin & defence
-10,000 -5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000
Source: ONS @UlsterUniEPC
Economic forecast
Outlook summary (all opinions matter)
Forecaster: 2018 2019 2020 2021
0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.4%
1.5% 1.0% 1.0%
1.0% 1.1% - -
0.8% 1.2% - -
1.1% 1.2% 1.3% 1.9%
1.0% 1.0% 0.8% 1.1% Source:
UUEPC Autumn 18 Outlook
Ulster Bank (September 2018)
Dankse Bank/Oxford Economics Quarterly Sectoral Forecasts Q2 2018
@UlsterUniEPC
EY Economic Eye Summer 2018
PwC Economic Outlook Summer 2018
UUEPC expects a tougher labour market
Central scenario – private sector job growth dominates
@UlsterUniEPC
Source: UUEPC Autumn Outlook 2018Brexit impact – who knows?
2017 Outturn GDP growth was 1.8%
Independent UK GDP growth forecasts in 2017 before and after the EU referendum
@UlsterUniEPCBrexit impact
Accessing labour may be an issue
% of total workforce in each sector in Northern Ireland from workers outside the
UK/ROI, 2016-2017 (4 quarter average)
Source: LFS (4 quarter average 2016/17)
@UlsterUniEPCHospitality & Tourism Management at UUBS
Degree programmes with national recognition
Graduates
Graduates
Level of Study since
in 2017/18
2013/14
Undergraduate 155 800
Masters 10 60
Professional practice 190 930
Total 355 1790
• NQF Level 4 professional practice qual Ranked for hospitality, leisure,
developed with Hastings Hotels – shortlisted
5th
recreation and tourism by The
Times/ Sunday Times Good
for: University Guide 2019
• Times Higher Education Awards 2017;
and For hospitality, events and Ranked
• Education Ireland Award 2018. tourism in the Guardian’s
University Guide 2019
6th
@UlsterUniEPCTourism overview
2.7mn external trips to NI in 2017
Strong long-term upward trend
Overnight Trips (Millions)
3
2.7m external
overnight trips in
2017 - highest
Good Friday on record
2.5 Agreement
2
Troubles Start
1.5
633,000 2007-09 Great Recession
external
overnight
trips to NI
1 in 1959
Belfast Harbour Airport opens
0.5
1983
Aldergrove opens
for civilian flights 1963
0
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Source: NISRA
@UlsterUniEPCOvernight Trips
Still reliant on the GB market
Overnight trips to NI by place of origin, 2011-2017
3
2
Million
1
0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
GB ROI Euope North America Other
Source: NISRA
@UlsterUniEPCFalling £ boosting tourism
… but retail prices rising
Number of NI rooms sold vs GBP/EUR Retail sales vs average store prices,
exchange rate, 2014-2018 2014-2018
@UlsterUniEPCOccupancy up across all councils
Belfast top performer
Hotel occupancy, LGD, 2013-2017
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
Source: NISRA 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013
@UlsterUniEPCHospitality still has significant room to grow
Extra 10k jobs or £177m GVA
Source: NOMIS, CSO &ONS
@UlsterUniEPCClosing thoughts
Closing thoughts
Challenges certainly …
ØBrexit will bring challenges:
• Immigration controls (likely) and therefore access to talent
• Travel visas (less likely) and therefore ease of tourist travel
• General uncertainty can impact business decisions both
investment and recruitment
• Is a ‘no deal’ really that likely?
@UlsterUniEPCClosing thoughts
… moving forward
Ø All councils working together – it’s a co-dependent
relationship
Ø Accessing talent – sector attractiveness
Ø Longer term investment plans – tourism infrastructure (TSPs),
major events, private sector investment …
Ø Still significant headroom for longer term growth in the sector
– a good bet for investment (public and private)
@UlsterUniEPCThank you
@UlsterUniEPCContact details
Gareth Hetherington
Director: Ulster University Economic Policy Centre
Email: g.hetherington@ulster.ac.uk
Telephone: 02890 368 036
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