Presentazione rapporto CNEL 2019 - Andrea Salvatori Labour Economist Director for Employment, Labour and Social Affairs - Io Scelgo

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Presentazione rapporto CNEL 2019 - Andrea Salvatori Labour Economist Director for Employment, Labour and Social Affairs - Io Scelgo
Presentazione rapporto CNEL
2019

    Andrea Salvatori
    Labour Economist
    Director for Employment, Labour and Social
    Affairs
    OECD
Un futuro senza lavoro a causa dei
robot?
Disoccupazione tecnologica su larga scala e’ improbabile…

             Employment rates overall have risen in most
             OECD countries (1990-2017)
                                                      %

                             1990           2017

                                    2
Molti lavori cambieranno a causa della technologia…

                                                                                    14% dei lavori sono a rischio di
                                                                                    automatizzazione…

     Percentage of jobs at risk of automation (as a % of all jobs)

            High risk of automation (>70%)   Significant risk of change (50-70%)                   14%
60
50
40                                                                                 … ma molti ancora cambieranno
30                                                                                 significativamente
20
10

                                                                                                    32%
 0

                                                                           3
Il cambiamento sta gia’ avvenendo rapidamente
             Percentage of workers in workplaces that have introduced new
           technologies and/or undergone significant restructuring in the way
              jobs and tasks are carried out in the previous 3 years, 2015
  50
  45
  40
  35
  30
  25
  20
  15
  10
   5
   0

  Note: Share of working answering affirmatively to the following question: During the last three years, has there been a restructuring or reorganisation at the workplace that has
  substantially affected your work?

  Source: European Working Condition Survey, 2015
Il part time involontario è in crescita per ragioni strutturali
   Variazione del tasso di PT innvolontario dal 2001 per
       OCSE, corretto per il ciclo e fattori strutturali
                     Unadjusted          Adjusted for cyclical factors   Adjusted for cyclical factors and industry mix
       %

           3

       2,5

           2

       1,5

           1

       0,5

           0

      -0,5
               2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
I cambiamenti toccano gruppi diversi in modi diversi
           L’aumento del PT involontario e’ piu’ forte tra i giovani

       %           Young                 Prime                Older

 20

 15

 10

  5

  0

  -5
La sfida per il futuro: un mercato del
     lavoro inclusivo

- Per affrontare i cambimenti servono politiche su molti fronti
  – come descritto nel rapport CNEL.

- Cenni su due temi:
 -   Formazione degli adulti
 -   Protezione sociale

                               7
Coloro che hanno maggiore bisogno di
         formazione, ne ricevono di meno
Share of adults (16-65) in each group that participate in training, 2012/2015

  80

  70                                                     Low automation
            High skilled
                                                                                        Standard                Standard                 Standard
  60
                                   Young (25-34)
  50                                                                                                                                                  average
                                                                                                              Temporary
  40
                                                                                                                                        Part-time
  30                                                     High automation Own-account                                                                         Unemployed
                                                                        Self-employed
  20                               Older (55-64)
            Low skilled                                                                                                                                         Displaced
  10

   0
       Note: Share of adults who participated in formal or non-formal job-related training over the previous 12 months. Data refer to 2012 for most countries, except for Chile, Greece,
       Israel, Lithuania, New Zealand, Slovenia and Turkey where they refer to 2015. Low (high) skilled refers to adults who score at level 1 or below (levels 4 or 5) on the PIAAC
       literacy scale. High (low) automation refers to adults at high (low) risk of automation. Own-account workers are the self-employed without employees. Temporary refers to
       workers on fixed term or temporary work agency contracts. Part-time refers to adults who work less (more) than 30 hours per week. Standard are adults in full-time jobs with an
       indefinite work contract. Unemployed refers to all unemployed who have not been dismissed for economic reasons in their last job; displaced refers to unemployed adults who
       have been dismissed for economic reasons in the last job. The OECD average (41%) refers to the unweighted average participation in job-related training among all adults
       among OECD countries participating in the Survey for Adult Skills (PIAAC).                                                                                                          8
       Source: Survey of Adult Skills (PIAAC) (2012, 2015).
Adult Learning Policy Directions

• Attaccare barriere training (motivazione, tempo)
• Portabilita’ del diritto alla formazione
• Ruolo importante della contrattazione collettiva

                            9
Solo una minoranza delle persone in cerca di
          occupazione riceve sussidi
                                                    Discouraged                                         ILO unemployed
               %
              70

              60

              50

              40

              30

              20

              10

               0

Note: In some countries, unemployment benefits can be received by people who have some work attachment (part-time unemployed) or who are not available for work10
(labour market inactive). The number of unemployment-benefit recipients can then be much higher than suggested by these coverage rates. See (OECD, 2018[29]) for
detailed results by employment status. The OECD SOCR database provides benefit recipients totals by country (www.oecd.org/social/recipients.htm). “Discouraged”
refers to people without employment who are available for work but are not actively looking for a job. OECD-24 corresponds to the unweighted average of the
countries shown. 2015 figures for Australia. LFS data for Sweden do not include a series of benefits that are accessible to jobless individuals who: i) are not in receipt
of core unemployment benefits, and who ii) satisfy other conditions such as active participation in employment-support measures. ILO: International Labour
Organization.
Il sostegno per disoccupati con carriere non-
           standard e’ debole in molti paesi
             Out-of-work support for non-standard workers is limited in some countries
           Baseline: past standard work                       Past non-standard (significant gap)                  Past non-standard (non-significant gap)

   100                                                       A. Probability of receiving any benefits

    80
    60
    40
    20
      0
            GRC       ITA     POL      EST     GBR      AUT      LVA      PRT      CZE      SVK     FRA      HUN   LUX    ISL    ESP    SVN     BEL
                                                      B. Benefit generosity for recipients (% of median income)
    60

    40

    20

                                                                                                                                                        11
      0
            GRC       ITA     POL      EST     GBR      AUT      LVA      PRT      CZE      SVK     FRA      HUN   LUX    ISL    ESP    SVN     BEL
Notes: Overall benefit support package 2014-15. Out-of-work individual in a low-income household with:
• past “standard” work (uninterrupted dependent employment), and
• past “non-standard” work or interrupted dependent employment (e.g. self-employed).
Statistical significance is for a 90% confidence interval. Source: OECD calculations using EU-SILC panel data.
Social Protection Policy Directions

• Rivedere i criteri di eligibilita’ per i sussidi di disoccupazione per
  assicurare protezione ai lavoratori con carriere non-standard.

                                 12
Grazie
OECD Employment Outlook 2019: https://oe.cd/il/2zn

              andrea.salvatori@oecd.org
                Twitter: @andysalvatori

                         13
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