Housing - Beyond Short-Term Solutions - Dublin Economics Workshop Paul Hogan, Acting Chief Planner, 14th September 2019
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Housing – Beyond Short-Term Solutions Dublin Economics Workshop Paul Hogan, Acting Chief Planner, 14th September 2019
Housing – Beyond the Short-term 1) There is a Plan 2) Seeks to address structural change 3) The Plan is being implemented Rialtas na hÉireann | Government of Ireland
Long-Term Planning? • “Fail to plan, prepare to fail” ― Benjamin Franklin • “A goal without a plan is just a wish” ― Antoine de Saint-Exupéry • “Someone's sitting in the shade today because someone planted a tree a long time ago” ― Warren Buffett Rialtas na hÉireann | Government of Ireland
Strategic ‘Framework’ Approach
• Long-run choices about place and
investment
• Prioritised decision-making to influence
change
• To ensure co-ordinated action/delivery
• And enable greater detail at the “The long term vision for Ireland’s housing future
appropriate spatial and sectoral levels aims to balance the provision of good quality
housing that meets the needs of a diverse
• Direction of travel to achieve agreed population in a way that makes our cities, towns,
outcomes villages and urban areas good places to live…”
Rialtas na hÉireann | Government of Ireland
National Planning Framework 2018
Project Ireland 2040 • National Planning Framework (NPF) to 2040 and National Development Plan to 2027 • As Spatial Plan, NPF, sets out strategy to accommodate growth • As Capital Investment Plan, NDP sets out funding envelope • Approved together by Government in 2018 Rialtas na hÉireann | Government of Ireland
NDP/NPF Alignment • Shared National Strategic Outcomes • Close alignment of planning and investment • €116 Bn capital plan to 2027 across Departments/Agencies and through Regional/County Plans • Spatial and sectoral integration
Modelled Growth to 2040 (ESRI) • Around 1 million additional people (+20% over 2016) • +660,000 additional jobs, • Minimum +550,000 additional households • Sustained, modest, long-run levels of economic growth and net in-migration Rialtas na hÉireann | Government of Ireland
Net Migration – ‘Five in-a-row?’ • Highly volatile, never been five consecutive years of net growth in positive figures • Four in-a-row three times: 1971-’75; 2003-’07 and 2014-’18 • Came close to five in 2019, but slight decrease (-300) • 2019 estimate (+35,700) exceeded only five times ever: 2002, 2005-07 and 2018 • >130,000 negative ‘swing’ in three years 07-10 Rialtas na hÉireann | Government of Ireland
Long-run Housing Output 1976 - 2016 Rialtas na hÉireann | Government of Ireland
Long-run Settlement Pattern +1.23 m By 2016… • Dublin: 1.2 million - 3,595 per km2 • GDA: 2 million - KMWL • Cork, Limerick, Galway, Waterford combined: 0.44 million - Av. 1,817 per km2 • Settlements
Planning Framework Targets derived from BaU v Alternatives: • Regional Balance - 50% growth outside EMRA • Concentration - Support Dublin and accessible regional centres of scale (50% growth in 5 Cities) • Compact Growth - New ‘Infill/Brownfield’ targets for settlements to reduce sprawl Regional and Local Ambition Locational choice of firms and individuals Enterprise, investment and talent - Attractiveness 11 An Roinn Tithíochta, Pleanála agus Rialtais Áitiúil | Department of Housing, Planning and Local Government
2040 ‘Targets’ What we are Planning for: • Ireland: +1m people to 5.75m • Dublin City & Suburbs: +0.25m to 1.5m • 4 other Cities & Suburbs: +0.25m to 0.7m • 5 Cities Total: +0.5m to 2.2m • 3 Regions outside cities: +0.5m to 3.55m ‘50:50’ - Cities’: NPF Strategy 12 An Roinn Tithíochta, Pleanála agus Rialtais Áitiúil | Department of Housing, Planning and Local Government
Timelines 1) Short Term: 2021/2. Rebuilding Ireland housing target, Post-Brexit, Regional Plans, Census ‘21 2) Medium Term: 2026/7, NDP delivery, Full City & County Development Plan Cycles, Census ‘26 3) Long Term: Post-2027, NDP & Strategy review 13 An Roinn Tithíochta, Pleanála agus Rialtais Áitiúil | Department of Housing, Planning and Local Government
PI 2040 Implementation
• Governance: Ireland 2040 Project Delivery Board; Steering and
integration across Government as a whole
• DPER Projects and Programmes Management : Review of
Public Spending Code, Capital Projects Tracker
• Construction Sector Sub-Group, targeting productivity,
sectoral capacity, skills
• Four New Funds: €4bn, competitive bid-based, include €2bn
Urban and €1bn Rural, for Regeneration/Development to 2027
• New Institutions - Office of the Planning Regulator (OPR)
and Land Development
Rialtas na hÉireann | Government of Ireland
Agency (LDA)Spatial Pattern • Monitoring Activity – Permissions, commencements, completions • Map - Completions 2017-19 (CSO quarterly data) • Continued focus on city-periphery ‘commuter’ counties • New County Plans from 2020 15 An Roinn Tithíochta, Pleanála agus Rialtais Áitiúil | Department of Housing, Planning and Local Government
House Type and Future Demand • NPF identifies need for up to 35,000 units to late 2020’s • HNDA: Housing Need and Demand Assessment - with ESRI and Scottish Government • Methodology to estimate structural housing demand on County basis 16 An Roinn Tithíochta, Pleanála agus Rialtais Áitiúil | Department of Housing, Planning and Local Government
Measures to Align Delivery with NPF
• Will achieve 25,000 homes per annum by 2020, with relative price stability
• Continue to increase output/supply and through HNDA, better estimate demand
• Updated County Development Plan zoning sequenced to reflect demand & service availability
• Updated supporting policies in place Rolling Annual Total of New Dwelling Completions (2011 - 2020)
for apartments and building height 30000
28500
25000
24000
• Review of SHD/Delivery ongoing 20000
17161
15000
• New URDF call in Q3 10000
•
6994
With LDA, measures to assist
5000
4526
‘infill/brownfield’ land activation 0
2011Q4 2012Q4 2013Q4 2014Q4 2015Q4
CSO New Dwelling Completions
2016Q4 2017Q4
Central Bank Q4 2018 Forecast
2018Q4 2019Q4 2020Q4
17 An Roinn Tithíochta, Pleanála agus Rialtais Áitiúil | Department of Housing, Planning and Local Governmente.g. Cork Docklands, Limerick 2030 18 An Roinn Tithíochta, Pleanála agus Rialtais Áitiúil | Department of Housing, Planning and Local Government
Current Challenges • Dublin: Apartments/urban housing. Affordability at delivery cost. Gap driving spatial ‘doughnut’ • Four Cities: Apartments/urban housing. Viability at delivery cost. Drives ‘doughnuts’, creates pressure to reduce densities, limits scope of ambition • Regional Ireland: Scheme housing. Limited demand, viability. Typically 60-70% rural ‘one-off’ housing 19 An Roinn Tithíochta, Pleanála agus Rialtais Áitiúil | Department of Housing, Planning and Local Government
Long-Term Strategy Supports Discourages • Compact Growth • Sprawl • Regional • Over-reliance on development Dublin • Delivery • Land speculation • Brownfield • Hoarding of development permissions • Transit Oriented • Greenfield as Development (TOD) dominant form of • Productivity development • Innovation • Long commutes • Quality and Choice • Inefficiency 20 An Roinn Tithíochta, Pleanála agus Rialtais Áitiúil | Department of Housing, Planning and Local Government
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