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How 20,000 officers can transform UK policing Policing 4.0
Contents Foreword01 Executive summary 02 About this report06 A new and volatile context07 A view of the future17 Police readiness20 Policing 4.0 decision framework24 Priorities for 21st century policing25 New capabilities for the future27 A. Building a workforce for the future34 B. Digital transformations37 C. Building structure and collaborations 40 that support effectiveness Conclusion42 Contacts42 Endnotes43
How 20,000 officers can transform UK policing| Policing 4.0
Foreword
Policing 4.0: How 20,000 officers can transform UK policing is the second of Deloitte’s
annual publications on the future of UK policing. Our first report, published in
September 2018, outlined the radical shifts in society, technology and patterns of
crime that the police must prepare for now. We shared examples of effective UK police
practice and provided some tools to help leaders make the tough choices required to
ensure that policing is ready for the future.
This year, our focus is a little different. The period of austerity in policing provoked over coming months and years.
The long-term future we expect for policing greater efficiency and innovation. Now,
is broadly unchanged but the immediate there are myriad opportunities to build
context for UK policing is radically different on progress. Twenty thousand officers
from 12 months ago. Crime is now an even deployed even in traditional ways will
clearer priority for the government and has improve public confidence and assist in
been promised a major injection of funding. tackling serious violence. Augmenting the
reach of these 20,000 with new forms of
New investment can be a once in a online visibility and enhanced technology,
generation opportunity for policing. richer data and digital investigation and
And, in this context, we are asking – and crime prevention capabilities would have
helping to answer – policing’s central a transformational impact on public safety
question for the coming period. How can and confidence. This report highlights Richard Hobbs
our police services take advantage of the some of the emerging approaches in Partner and UK Policing Lead
new investment and build a police service policing and other sectors that can
that serves the public more effectively help, provides ideas for system reform,
both today and in the future? We draw our and shares tools to help leaders make
answers from a new Deloitte survey of the judgements on the right choices for their
public, workshops with police officers and organisations and teams.
staff, interviews and surveys with policing
leaders, online engagement with the Overall, we are optimistic about the
police workforce and Deloitte’s experience future of UK policing. Funding constraints
working across policing in the UK and in England, Wales and Northern Ireland
internationally. have left the service under considerable
strain but leaders there and in Scotland
have developed new ways of working and
This report highlights some a more rigorous approach to managing
of the emerging approaches scarce resources. With additional funding,
we believe leaders can build on these
in policing and other sectors successes. And we hope they can draw
that can help, provides on the information and ideas in this
publication as they develop UK policing Tom Gash
ideas for system reform, Deloitte Strategic Adviser
and shares tools to help
leaders make judgements
on the right choices for their
organisations and teams.
01
How 20,000 officers can transform UK policing| Policing 4.0
Executive summary
“We have digital dogs now”, a police sergeant told us.1 “One just found a phone buried
in the garden of a serious sex offender.”
Digital dogs are not a new piece of The UK government has now responded These uncertainties reflect the fact that
technological kit for policing. They are decisively, however. After small funding policing has reached a new inflection
dogs that have been specially trained to injections targeted at reducing serious point. The policy and fiscal framework
locate hidden electronic devices – and are violence in early 2019, the Chancellor’s in England and Wales that was ushered
just one of the ways in which UK policing September ‘spending round’ promised an in by the then home secretary,
is evolving to meet the challenges of our additional £750m investment in English Theresa May, in 2010 and which held
technological age. As this report shows, and Welsh policing in 2020.6 Further firm until she stepped down as prime
policing has developed a panoply of new increases have been promised in future minister in 2019 is now over. Decisions
approaches to preventing and detecting years as the government aims to deliver by politicians and police leaders over
crime, deploying technology that on the ambitious target to recruit 20,000 the coming months in England and
increases productivity and supporting its more officers over the next three years as Wales – and parallel decisions in Scotland
workforce. well as invest in the wider justice system. and Northern Ireland – will shape a
new settlement and determine the
Progress has been made against a Our work finds that this injection of effectiveness of UK policing for years
challenging backdrop. Between 2009 funding has made police leaders to come.
and 2019, policing budgets in England optimistic. Funding may now recover to
and Wales fell by around 16 per cent in 2009 levels by 2022 and leaders are There is now a vital opportunity to
real terms at the same time as demands confident that they have enhanced the address historic challenges and prepare
from the public increased in several efficiency of their organisations during the for the future. The trends of accelerating
areas.2 Northern Ireland’s budgets period of austerity. Yet there is some technological and societal change
fell significantly. Scottish policing may caution too. The proposed funding highlighted in this report have already
largely have escaped cuts but has increase would still mean that officer created an environment that is very
still experienced the challenges of numbers in England and Wales remain different to ten years ago (see Figure 1) –
major structural change. UK policing 9 per cent lower in per capita terms than and there are gaps emerging in policing’s
performance stood up surprisingly well for ten years ago, given population growth.7 ability to cope with change. None of the
many years but the pressures eventually There also remains (at the time of writing) leaders we surveyed felt policing was yet
told.3 After a spike in serious violence since some uncertainty regarding future policy well prepared for tackling technology-
2015, crime is now the third highest public decisions nationally, Brexit impacts, and enabled crime (see page 20). There were
concern in England and Wales after Brexit shift in local political leadership. We expect also major concerns about policing’s
and healthcare.4 Police visibility in England as many as half of police and crime capacity to use technology effectively
and Wales has fallen.5 And chief officers commissioners (PCCs) to be replaced after (see page 21). And there were concerns
we spoke to reported that they had to the May 2020 elections, as around a third about policing’s capacity to deliver a
make increasingly unpalatable decisions of PCCs are not seeking re-election. co-ordinated national, regional and local
on which crimes could be given a full response to emerging threats (see
investigative response. page 21).
If these gaps are addressed, and policing
avoids the temptation simply to rebuild
There is now a vital opportunity to address historic the policing model of ten years ago, the
challenges and prepare for the future. prize is vast. We propose nine measures
that could collectively help ensure that
the addition of 20,000 officers transforms
policing effectiveness today and in future.
02
How 20,000 officers can transform UK policing| Policing 4.0
Recommendations for UK government 2. If the above is not possible due 4. Provide increased stability
and the national policing boardi to changes in priorities or fiscal of investment and stronger
We take it as a given that even with position, adjust timescales for co-ordination around national
increased resources, policing must be increasing officer numbers. technology-enabled transformation
as clear as possible about its mission, Underinvesting in the right support and specialist capability
aspirations and priorities and national staff, technical specialists and programmes. Funding for critical
investments must be guided by a clear technology will result in policing being programmes is still not provided on
view of what the public value and need. less productive and could drive some a multi-year basis, and this is slowing
To ensure effective delivery on the forces to reallocate frontline officers down the delivery of benefits to
mission, however, the government and into less operational roles. officers and staff. The multiplicity
the national policing board should: of governance arrangements for
3. Build new crime reduction national programmes is also creating
1. Continue to invest beyond capabilities that logically sit duplication of effort and increased
the levels required to hire the above the level of individual workload for police forces. It seems
additional 20,000 officers in forces. We believe there is a gap in inevitable that at some point an
England and Wales and rebuild national capabilities for preventing organisation will need to be assigned
service strength in Northern Ireland. high volume, less serious crimes, to house these ongoing long-term
Investment in new officers will only particularly online crime (notably programmes and the capabilities
support productivity when there is an fraud) and traditional acquisitive crime. needed to support them.
appropriate balancing investment in: Local police forces lack many of the
levers necessary for effective crime 5. Harness the Police Foundation
– Training and equipment (including prevention (for example, engaging Policing Review, announced
technological enablement) with industry on product security in September 2019, to build
standards or liaising with banks to solutions and consensus around
– Functions that are essential to policing tackle illicit finance). The National overall police structures and
effectiveness but don’t always require Crime Agency (NCA), meanwhile, is governance. Our research showed
warranted officers (e.g. forensics and oriented towards individual serious clear dysfunction in the governance
intelligence) cases and organised threats, rather of national and regional capabilities
than cumulative system-wide crime and critical programmes. This report
– Downstream costs in the criminal harms – so cannot easily prioritise raises some options for improvement
justice system, and upstream building the capabilities to prevent but any solution involves trade-offs
preventative work. high volume, lower seriousness and will be contentious.
crime. This means opportunities are
The 2020 budget investment of £750 missed to prevent victimisation and
million for up to 6,000 officers, plus taser to tackle serious violence and other Underinvesting in the right
funding and increased criminal justice government priorities.
expenditure, appears to have provisioned
support staff, technical
for some of these investments for next specialists and technology
year. However, Scotland’s experience
suggests that future budgetary pressures
will result in policing being
could create temptations to focus only on less productive and could
the 20,000 officer recruitment target.
drive some forces to
reallocate frontline officers
into less operational roles.
i Please note that these recommendations do not apply to Scotland or Northern Ireland where policing
is a devolved matter but similar principles apply – for example on budget certainty and balanced
investment in officers and staff/technology
03How 20,000 officers can transform UK policing| Policing 4.0
Recommendations for local policing, 8. Build on collective work relating These recommendations all directly
including in devolved administrations to digital policing. Contrary to the support or complement the delivery of the
In the relatively decentralised UK policing overall perception, several police Government’s manifesto commitments
system, political and operational leaders forces in the UK and internationally on crime and policing. Some (for example
at force level will make many of the are making huge strides towards on investment approaches) go very
most critical choices shaping the future becoming data-driven organisations, much with the grain of work already
effectiveness of policing. We previously deploying advanced analytics and underway and will simply require ongoing
provided policing leaders with a intelligent automation solutions focus. Others require new decisions or
framework to guide difficult prioritisation ethically, embracing new national programmes of work nationally or locally.
decisions nationally and locally (see capabilities and managing ICT
Figure 2). We also recommended infrastructure efficiently and securely. All recommendations are, of course,
that policing uses new methods for The service direction of travel is now intended to support the development of
understanding public priorities – clearly set out in the national Digital, the next evolution of UK policing, Policing
including deliberative processes tested by Data and Technology Strategy and we 4.0. Policing 4.0 is about building an
the Police Foundation over the past year.8 make recommendations for how to ecosystem that harnesses clear thinking,
It remains critical that such tools are build on progress on pages 37-9. data, person-centred design and cyber-
used by devolved assemblies, PCCs and physical systems to improve public safety
chief officers to shape decisions about 9. Anticipate and avoid ‘change and create public value. We believe that
what is policed, where and how. This overload’. Policing has delivered this year’s changes in policing context
year, however, we identify four additional major changes in recent years provide an unparalleled opportunity to
actions that can support local policing. but there is more to come. At a make Policing 4.0 a reality.
time when police HR, change and
6. Develop ‘digital twins’ of your communications teams are already
organisation to develop more stretched by locally-led programmes,
insight on where to invest new a set of national programmes (for In the relatively
resources. This can build on recruitment, training and technology) decentralised UK policing
progress made in understanding are being implemented. They all
demands on policing for Force offer potential productivity gains system, political and
Management Statements and will but also require new training and operational leaders at
help organisations to anticipate and communications drives that will
unblock organisational bottlenecks need to be carefully managed and force level will make
and capability gaps (see page 30). sequenced to ensure the workforce many of the most critical
is not confused and overwhelmed by
7. Refuse to compromise on quality changes. choices shaping the future
or diversity in the upcoming effectiveness of policing.
recruitment drive, even if this
means a delay in hitting targets.
With around 50,000 new recruits
required to meet officer number
targets, entrants over the next few
years will be the backbone of the
service for decades. We provide
suggestions on how to capitalise on
the workforce opportunity on page 35
of this report.
04How 20,000 officers can transform UK policing| Policing 4.0
Figure 1. Six new realities for policing
gi
Serving a fully digital world,
ing and a ng societ Outgunned by private sector
where every crime has a digital footprint, w y and civil society, with private
every police function harnesses digital gro investments in crime prevention and
technology,and data is one of policing’s A
nisation
investigation vastly outweighing those
rba A
most valuable assets of a state struggling to fundgrowing
g u T health, care and pensions expenditure
n ech
glo
N
dels of n
i
a ti
o
go
ba
m w
ol k
On
w
o
Harnessing Operating with near-total
lisin
og
n a l id
or
cyber-physical systems, transparency, due to
Ne
ical
g
C li m a t e c h a n
as a result of exponential increasingly omni-present
economy
growth of sensing technologies accelerat surveillance of the public and
e n t i ti e s a
and connected (‘internet of the police
things’) devices
The e
m
is e
li s
ion
a
o f i n d ivi d u
r
nd
g
Responding to a much Using an unknowable
faster pace of change in y volume of knowledge
se
y
cit
om
every arena, with constant ra r about ‘what works’ in
pa
t is R e s o u rc e sc a reducing crime and managing
on
business innovation creating
new criminal opportunities m ec police services
t
rk e
and potential policing tools
T h e ri s e o f t h e m a
and social connectivity creating
a rapid spread of news and ideas
Figure 2. Critical decisions for policing – a framework for strategic choices
CONTEXT – Public values and preferences; crime and non-crime demand; systemic assets and liabilities
FUNDING
WHERE?
PRIORITIES AND PHILOSOPHY HOW?
What are your priorities? CAPABILITIES
What new and existing capabilities are
WHAT? • Crime type required to achieve your aspiration?
MISSION AND ASPIRATION • Geography
What is your organisation’s unifying, • Non crime demand What does this mean for your
realistic goal? • Harm/Threat/Risk/Solvability approach to:
What policing philosophy • Workforce
and leadership philosophy will • Digital transformation
guide your approach? • Structures and collaborations?
Public consent, support and action in aid of your mission and approach – ENGAGEMENT
OUTCOMES
05How 20,000 officers can transform UK policing| Policing 4.0
About this report
This report draws on significant research and Our research method
engagement with UK policing conducted between late Interviews
July and the end of September 2019 (see panel). • Chief officers from 13 forces
• 3 PCCs
Its purpose is to support UK police leaders We structure this report by focusing • 8 national policing leaders
at all levels to imagine and deliver the first on recent changes, then future • 2 independent experts
future of policing, by: trends, then on an assessment of police
readiness for immediate and long-term UK Police survey
• helping to make sense of the major challenges. We provide perspectives and • Chief officers in 12 forces
recent and impending changes that will recommendations on how policing can
affect the future of policing address current challenges and prepare Workshop
for the future, and highlight the difficult • Cross-policing workshop
• providing tools and frameworks to choices policing leaders face. Finally, we with 50 officers and staff
support difficult decisions on police note the approaches that pioneers in of various levels of seniority
priorities and where to invest to deliver policing and other sectors are using to
on them become more effective and put forward State of the State data
our ideas for addressing issues that risk • Public survey on key issues
• highlighting areas where new police holding back the service. • Public sector workforce
capabilities need to be developed – and online engagement
the new approaches to managing the
workforce, deploying technology, and Literature review
reshaping structures and collaborative • See bibliography
models that can support their creation
UK statistics
• inspiring leaders with examples of • Budget, crime, workforce,
interesting and/or proven approaches performance
from their colleagues in other forces and
other sectors. Deloitte experience
• UK policing
• International
• Other sectors
06How 20,000 officers can transform UK policing| Policing 4.0
A new and volatile context
Increased divergence and fiscal • a major overall reduction in the central In terms of funding across nations, Scottish
constraints police grant, which has increased police expenditure on policing and workforce
In Policing 4.0 2018, we set out in detail forces’ reliance on their local tax base numbers have been stable over the past
the major trends that have been affecting ten years. In England and Wales (where
UK policing in the past decade.9 The most • variation in the levels of reduction in policing is not devolved), there has been
obvious shift has, of course, been in funding. central police grants across forces, due a real terms funding reduction of around
But a less remarked on change is increased to funding formula rules. 18 per cent and a 16 per cent reduction
divergence. Devolution of policing to Scotland in the workforce (See Figure 3). Northern
and, more gradually, Northern Ireland since In 2020, it is increasingly difficult to talk Ireland, a country with a very different and
1998 has brought far greater variation about UK policing as a single entity. UK demanding policing context, experienced
between nations. And since 2010, there policing still undoubtedly has considerable significant cuts, with an eight per cent drop
has been increased divergence within shared culture and history. Staff still in officer numbers since 2010.10
England and Wales too, as a result of: regularly (though decreasingly) move
between areas and nations, sharing
• the introduction of directly elected PCCs ideas along the way. But differences are
in 2011, who have held greater sway on growing in terms of funding, workforce
funding, priorities and specific decisions mix, and policy.
than the police authorities that preceded
them
Figure 3. Police workforce composition in England and Wales, 2009-2019 (headcount in thousands)
250
200 81 82
77
70
68 67 66
66 65 67 69
16 17
150 16
14
14 13 12
11 10 10 10 Workforce type Net % change
2009-2019
100 Overall workforcei -16%
142 142
137 132 Staff (including -15%
127 125 125 121 121 120 121 designated and traffic)
PCSOsii -42%
50
Officers i -15%
0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Source: Home Office, Police Workforce: England and Wales, Table S1, plus author’s analysis, 18 July 2019
Notes: i. Excludes British Transport Police and secondments out to central services
ii. Police Community Support Officers
07How 20,000 officers can transform UK policing| Policing 4.0
Per capita police funding varies Figure 4. Officers per 100,000 by UK geography, 201912
significantly by nation and region
(see Figure 4). As national grants in England 400
360
and Wales have reduced, the relative 350
350
importance of local taxation has increased. 319
Forces with strong local tax bases, a 300
historically higher precept and PCCs more
239
250
willing to raise the precept have been 220 223
208 209
shielded from the full force of reductions 200 172
in central grants.11 158
150 136
Workforce mix also now varies
100
significantly across forces (see Figure 5).
All forces received ring-fenced funding to 50
hire Police Community Support Officers
(PCSOs) after they were introduced by 0
Northern
Ireland
Scotland
Wales
England
London
Merseyside
West
Midlands
North
Wales
Thames
Valley
Surrey
Hampshire
David Blunkett, the then home secretary,
in 2002 to increase visibility and boost
neighbourhood engagement. But when
prescriptions were removed forces
Source: Author’s analysis based on ONS and police workforce data drawn from. G. Allen and Y. Zayed,
differed widely in their views on to what Briefing Paper Number 00634: Police Service Strength, House of Commons Library, 31 July 2019
degree PCSOs had been helpful. Norfolk, Note: London aggregates Metropolitan Police and City of London Police Service figures but excludes central
agencies based in London such as the NCA
for example, ended their use entirely but
they still account for eight per cent of the
workforce in Cleveland and Staffordshire.
Our interviews this year made clear that
Similarly, some forces have been much there are also differences in priorities
Forces with strong local tax
keener than others to use non-warranted across geographies. There was a general bases, a historically higher
officers in roles such as intelligence or divide between rural and urban forces in
fraud investigation, and there have been terms of the crime problems they were
precept and PCCs more
differing views on the right balance of seeking to tackle. But we found important – willing to raise the precept
investment between frontline officers though smaller – differences in the choices
and the technological and administrative PCCs and chief constables were making in
have been shielded from
support that can boost their productivity. terms of policing priorities and operational the full force of reductions
Seventy-five per cent of the Metropolitan strategy across all forces – which we discuss
Police Service workforce are police officers further on pages 24-7.
in central grants.
compared to just 48 per cent in Avon and
Somerset. It is worth noting that forces
such as Cleveland and Lincolnshire have
outsourced a large number of support roles,
while the majority of forces have not.
08How 20,000 officers can transform UK policing| Policing 4.0
Figure 5. Workforce mix by force area, 2019 (% of workforce by type)
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Metropolitan Police
Cleveland
Lincolnshire
Gwent
Northumbria
London, City of
West Midlands
Merseyside
BTP
Gtr Manchester
Norfolk
Essex
Hampshire
Cambridgeshire
Cumbria
Devon & Cornwall
Suffolk
Kent
Nottinghamshire
Dyfed-Powys
Humberside
Hertfordshire
Thames Valley
Lancashire
Gloucestershire
Northamptonshire
Derbyshire
South Wales
Cheshire
North Wales
West Yorkshire
Sussex
Surrey
Leicestershire
Durham
Staffordshire
Bedfordshire
West Mercia
Wiltshire
Warwickshire
South Yorkshire
North Yorkshire
Dorset
Avon & Somerset
Police staff (34% of total) PCSOsii (5% of total) Officersi (61% of total)
Source: Home Office, Police Workforce: England and Wales, Table S1, plus author’s analysis, 18 July 2019
Notes: Headcount data. i. Excludes British Transport Police and secondments out to central services ii. Police Community Support Officers
Evolving patterns of crime and demand 3. The virtual sphere: Since the 2000s, Sex offender registers are adding new
The big changes in patterns of demand the police have inevitably been pulled individuals to monitor at a faster rate
are more consistent across forces. As we into the digital world as concerns than they are removing them.ii And while
reported last year, all areas are still grappling grow about internet-enabled bullying, online crime has arguably not yet met
with the same fundamental long-term shift abuse, fraud and theft, and much the response it merits, it is still absorbing
that has required policing to span three other crime has become in some way increasing amounts of police time. Last year
spheres: digitally enabled. there were 3.24 million fraud offences, mostly
perpetrated remotely, creating billions of
1. The public sphere: In the decades This growth in the police mission has pounds of harm to society.13
leading up to the 1980s, policing was contributed to policing being increasingly
largely concerned with maintaining stretched despite long-term falls in volumes
public order and dealing with crimes in of traditional crimes such as burglary and
public or against property. theft. In the last year increased reporting
of private sphere crimes has continued
2. The private sphere: From the 1980s unabated, driving a heavy workload given
onwards, public pressure mounted the complex investigations required by
for policing to tackle increasingly both current and historic cases.
seriously crimes in the private sphere,
particularly previously unnoticed or
neglected sexual and violent crimes
against women and children.
ii Ford, R., ‘Number of registered sex offenders jumps by 80 per cent in ten years’, The Times, October 27
2017. Note that the sexual offenders register is the list of those subject to community supervision because
of past sexual offending. Those who have received sentences of over 30 months are subject to lifetime
supervision, while those who have a sentence of 6-30 months are monitored for 10 years, and under six
months for seven. Sexual offences covered are not limited to children or contact sexual offending.
09How 20,000 officers can transform UK policing| Policing 4.0
In addition, there has been a widely Increasingly difficult choices One chief officer said, “I’ve protected
reported and troubling resurgence in A key theme of this year’s interviews was neighbourhood policing, but suffered on
serious violence. Since 2015, serious the fact that shrinking resources and an investigation, response and proactivity, and
violence recorded by the police has risen expanding mission have required leaders cyber and fraud”.19 A PCC said, “The force’s
dramatically – particularly in England and to make difficult – sometimes impossible Crime Management Centre is doing remote
Wales – and this does not appear to be – choices about what to prioritise. The resolution and ‘screening out’ [deciding
solely a consequence of improved police truth is that policing has never been able which cases cannot be fully investigated],
recording.14 The trend is still relatively to provide a full investigative response which is uncomfortable but it’s the world
short-term, and not universal. Homicide to all crimes and it has always had to we are in with current resources.”20
in Scotland and Northern Ireland has, for make choices about whether to invest in
example, remained largely similar.15 But pursuing criminals or preventing crime. Many police forces have received criticism
there is an emerging international trend As one leader told us, “We currently for investigating only the most serious
towards increased serious violence. And prioritise in all sorts of ways, both crimes and risks and neglecting some
this means that the approach of moving on threat, risk, harm, vulnerability [to higher volume crimes and types of
police resources away from public sphere determine levels of investigative response] engagement that the general population
crimes and towards private and virtual but also for example by only examining two value. The alternative of failing to prevent
domains as traditional crime fell may no digital devices per household [for certain or investigate as many serious offences
longer be tenable. crimes]. Even with additional resources was, however, also unappetising – and a
we will need to decide on investment in clear finding from this year’s interviews is
Another source of strain highlighted in prevention, safeguarding, reassurance that policing is getting much more rigorous
Policing 4.0 relates to policing’s role as the patrolling, response and investigation.”18 and sophisticated in the way it approaches
‘service of last resort’. For example, the prioritisation. As one chief officer said,
police report increased demands relating The difference during our summer and “My people were going to fall over if they
to mental health crises, car accidents and autumn 2019 interviews was that UK couldn’t make calls and prioritise the
protecting the vulnerable, such as those policing leaders were feeling increasingly important.”21
missing from care homes.16 A by-product uncomfortable with the fact that they were
of automation, increased efficiency in only able to provide initial investigations
public service delivery, and reduced (assessing likelihoods of reaching a
local spending across public services is successful conclusion) for increasingly
...shrinking resources and
a reduction in the number of guardians serious crimes. And they saw more clearly an expanding mission
of public spaces other than the police. the consequences of tricky trade-offs.
Without bus conductors and with fewer Doing all aspects of policing well with
have required leaders to
park wardens, for example, issues that historic resourcing levels could feel like make difficult – sometimes
might previously have been prevented or trying to get a single bedsheet to cover
resolved now lead to police call outs.17 a double bed – the moment one area is
impossible – choices about
covered a gap emerges elsewhere. what to prioritise.
10How 20,000 officers can transform UK policing| Policing 4.0
Growing strain This year there is optimism that new • public confidence in the police
In 2018, Policing 4.0 showed a service that funding will help to resolve some of these appears to have fallen, after many
was working hard to minimise the impact issues. However, issues were still present years remaining stable. The proportion
of funding reductions on citizens’ services. in many forces, and recent research from of the public rating the police as good
However, it also showed a service under Deloitte and Institute for Government22 or excellent in the Crime Survey of
growing strain, struggling to cope with the shows that they have started to affect England and Wales (CSEW) has fallen to
combination of increased demand, growing public confidence and outcomes. We note: 58 per cent in 2018/19, having fluctuated
case complexity, and reduced funding. Its between 61 per cent and 63 per cent
release coincided with mounting concern • public concern about crime is growing. between 2011/12 and 2017/18.24
in the sector, expressed in Her Majesty’s Ipsos Mori’s ‘Issues Tracker’ (August
Chief Inspector of the Constabulary, Fire 2019, see Figure 6) shows that crime
and Rescue Service’s reports, a highly is an increasing public concern and
critical National Audit Office study, and the now the third highest public concern
Home Affairs Select Committee’s report in the UK after Europe/Brexit and the
on the Future of Policing. Collectively, NHS. Deloitte’s recent State of the State
these reports highlighted the difficult report showed that (as in 2018) policing
prioritisation choices forces were having to was the third highest public priority for
make, noting that several – though not all – increased investment after the NHS and
forces were: education.23 The proportion wanting to
prioritise policing as one of their top two
• deprioritising a growing number of or three investment areas fell from 38
crimes at an early stage, because they per cent to 32 per cent, though this may
only felt able to provide a full investigative reflect the fact that polling came after
response to the most serious cases or the prime minister promised to invest in
when there was a reasonable prospect of 20,000 additional police officers.
a successful prosecution
Figure 6. Public concerns, August 2019
• answering calls for service less promptly Question: What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?
and arriving at the scene of emergencies Change since July 2019
in a less timely manner
% Position
• no longer providing a meaningful Common Market/Brexit/EU/Europe 60% 0 –
neighbourhood policing offer, due to NHS/hospitals/healthcare 43% +4 –
resources being pulled into emergency Crime/law and order/ASB 29% +4 –
response and investigation
Education/schools 23% +2 –
• unable to offer adequate protection and Economy 18% +2 +3
emotional support to officers who face Poverty/inequality 16% -2 –
repeated trauma through their work
Pollution/environment 15% -4 -2
Housing 15% -3 -1
• failing in safeguarding responsibilities in
relation to vulnerable victims, witnesses Immigration/immigrants 12% -2 –
and suspects. 11% +1 +2
Public services in general
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Source: Ipsos Mori Issues Index
Base: 1,003 British adults 18+, 2-15 August 2019
11How 20,000 officers can transform UK policing| Policing 4.0
• some types of police visibility have Figure 7. Percentage of victims who were satisfied with the police, 2010 to 2019
fallen. In 2018/19, just 16 per cent of
respondents to the CSEW survey said 75%
that foot patrols were highly visible in 74%
their local area, less than half the
73%
39 per cent recorded in 2009/10. Over
the same period, the proportion of 72%
respondents reporting that they ‘never’ 71%
saw foot patrols increased from 27 per 70%
cent to 47 per cent.25 Many forces have
69%
reduced visible patrols that previously
provided reassurance in lower crime 68%
communities, in order to focus on 67%
the most vulnerable areas. However,
66%
these figures do not take into account
the growing visibility (and effective 65%
2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19
communication) from the police through
new online channels – and measures Source: Office for National Statistics, ‘Crime in England and Wales: Supplementary tables', Table S13
of visibility need to be updated to
provide this broader view of visibility and
understand the impact of visibility on The past year saw increased attention A sudden shift in police funding and
confidence and legitimacy. on police weaknesses in tackling specific the English and Welsh policy context
categories of crime – most notably fraud. Research for this report was conducted
• victim satisfaction is now falling. A Police Foundation study highlighted at a time of seismic change in the policing
Having held steady and even increased that just 3 per cent of the (generally more landscape in England and Wales. During
until 2013/14, satisfaction has been serious) fraud offences reported to the the selection process for the Conservative
falling steadily since (Figure 7). In 2018/19 police resulted in a charge and summons, Party leadership in July 2019, Boris Johnson
the overall proportion of victims who reflecting the low priority generally given signalled the high priority he attached to
were ‘very’ or ‘fairly’ satisfied with police to fraud by policing.27 There has been policing and promised an additional 20,000
performance fell to 66 per cent down growing focus too on broader issues within officers for policing by 2021/2022. As prime
from a high of 74 per cent in 2013/14. a stretched criminal justice system, and the minister he confirmed this pledge and the
This decrease in satisfaction has not been impact this has had on police effectiveness September 2019 spending round promised
uniform across the different categories and legitimacy. Sir Thomas Winsor, Her £750m in additional funding to support the
of crime. Victim satisfaction with police Majesty’s Chief Inspector of Fire & Rescue recruitment of 6,000 officers in the coming
response to violent crime has actually Services, highlighted a set of issues in his year, plus £45 million funding to enable the
increased slightly, from 72 per cent in annual report on policing. Two of our chief immediate recruitment drive.29 Officers were
March 2016 (when more detailed data officer interviewees suggested that “the allocated to forces on 9th October 2019
first became available) to 74 per cent in criminal justice system is at the point of as this report was being finalised. Officer
March 2019. However, this has been more failure”, highlighting long delays experienced allocations were based on the existing
than offset by substantial decreases in both before securing charging decisions police funding formula.30 No officers were
victim satisfaction with police responses from the Crown Prosecution Service, initially allocated to national agencies such
to theft offences and to criminal damage.26 challenges in securing court sitting time, and as the National Crime Agency, reflecting
This disparity is interesting and may be a prison and probation services that could do the political emphasis on increased policing
reflection of police prioritisation choices. little to address offending behaviour.28 visibility and a more robust investigative
response for ‘volume’ crime.
12How 20,000 officers can transform UK policing| Policing 4.0
New investment is being supplemented by The shift in policing’s funding position The scale of promised officer recruitment
some specific funds and grants for national came as a surprise to most police leaders. is vast. As shown in Figure 8 (overleaf), it is
priority issues, including: Last year, our survey found that nearly the largest and fastest ever attempted in
half of police leaders expected funding England and Wales, and will return officer
• the establishment of a £25 million ‘Safer to stay the same or decrease in the next numbers to 2009 levels, which were then
Streets Fund’, which will be subject to bids five years, and only one prescient leader at an all-time high. Given current rates
from PCCs and chief constables who wish expected police funding to increase a lot.32 of officers leaving the service, policing
to address crime hotspots Interviewees naturally welcomed the new needs to recruit around 50,000 new
investment, but there was also a note of recruits to achieve the 20,000 increase.
• a £20 million “package of actions” for caution about the way in which funding If common application success rates of
“cracking down on county lines drugs decisions had been made over the past around 1 in 10 were maintained, that would
gangs” year. As one chief officer put it, “the funding mean encouraging 500,000 applicants
framework changes from one month to to apply for officer roles. In addition,
• a £10 million fund to “increase the number the next… CSR [Comprehensive Spending the £750 million provision in this year’s
of officers carrying a taser”. Review], funding formula, 20,000 uplift… by spending round provides funding for staff
the time you do the work on planning for recruitment (as well as technology and
This major new investment comes in the future…change comes along.”33 equipment to support police effectiveness).
addition to smaller funding injections in This increases the scale and scope of the
2018/19. During that year the government’s Funding for Violence Reduction Units recruitment challenge, given challenges in
central grant funding remained flat (in (VRUs) was seen by interviewees as a prime recruiting and retaining particular specialist
cash terms) but government permitted example of the inefficiencies that could skills, for example relating to technology.
PCCs to raise council tax by up to £12 be created by unexpected and short-term
per household per year.31 In 2019, the commitments. First, there was essentially
government also provided ad hoc grants a requirement to ‘use or lose’ VRU funds The scale of promised
of around £100 million to tackle the within a year, even though there was a lack
challenges of serious violence in 18 priority of clarity on what VRUs aimed to achieve officer recruitment is vast...
areas, identified on the basis of Home and the best approaches to organisation it is the largest and fastest
Office data on knife crime accident and and staffing. Second, there was no long-
emergency admissions. Around £65 million term funding stream for what should be a ever attempted in England
of this largely went to funding overtime, long-term investment – creating unhelpful and Wales, and will return
while the remainder went towards funding uncertainty over how to fund units (and
new ‘Violence Reduction Units’ (VRUs) indeed whether to prioritise them) when officer numbers to 2009
tasked with tackling longer-term causes of funding runs out. The pledge for 20,000 levels, which were then at
violence and galvanising a ‘whole systems new officers is hugely welcomed by the
approach’ to serious violence. service and provides increased certainty, an all-time high.
but leaders are still concerned about their
ability to make long-term commitments.
A government spending review which
would have set a two or three-year
spending envelope was scheduled to take
place in 2018 but has still not happened.
13How 20,000 officers can transform UK policing| Policing 4.0
Figure 8. Officer recruitment drive in historical context largely left PCCs and chief constables to set
priorities. As one leader noted, “things were
beginning to go in this direction already after
a more hands off approach [from the Home
Office]”.35 But as another said, “there has
been a 180 degree shift in the balance of
central versus local direction and control”.36
It is important to note that the Conservative
manifesto did not envisage that central
Davies bulge Hurd bulge Blair bulge Boris bulge direction would diminish the importance
(~2,500 pa) (~1,100 pa) (~3,400 pa) (~6,500 pa)
1978-1983 1985-1991 2000-2005 2019-2022 of PCCs, promising only to “strengthen the
After a severe Hurd was home Between 2000 and A commitment to accountability of elected PCCs and expand
recruitment crisis, secretary from 1985 2005 officer increase officer their role.37
Sir Edmund Davies’ to 1989 but this numbers went up by numbers by 20,000 –
independent review increase of around 17,100 (from 124,100 the largest single
recommended the 6,800 in officer to 141,200) as law recruitment drive • renewed focus on more traditional
largest ever pay numbers (~1,100 per and order became a attempted in policing crime and visibility. Political messaging
increases enabling year) took place over central priority for which seeks to
has emphasised the importance of
a major recruitment a longer period of Blair’s political and reverse 10 years of
drive. rising crime from public service reform declining officer providing greater visibility and tackling
1985 to 1991. strategy. numbers in just violence and ‘traditional’ crimes. A striking
three years.
theme in this year’s interviews was a
recognition that the combination of
austerity and a focus on the highest threat,
Police recruitment takes place against the • increased focus on crime and policing. harm and risk cases and situations had
backdrop of a major shift in the approach As one chief officer said, “What I’m seeing… necessitated too great a neglect of higher
to officer recruitment and initial training. that policing is on the top of the political volume, low to medium severity crimes
Those without degrees will be able to apply agenda…”34 such as burglary. As one chief constable
for roles in policing but all will work towards put it, “traditional crime investigation had
degree level professional qualifications • increased willingness to set priorities fallen off a cliff and I always felt there would
as part of their training. New recruits with and direction nationally. There is a be a reaction… maybe an overreaction”38
degrees will need to undergo two years of strong expectation that new funding will
training before being fully qualified, while come with increased direction over how • a more punitive focus for the criminal
those entering without degrees (via the resources are used. Signals of this include: justice system: There is a political
apprenticeship route) will undergo three commitment to increasing prison capacity,
years of training. Officers already in the – the creation of the new National Policing and new funding has been allocated
workforce will be given the opportunity Board, to set the direction for policing to support the broader CJS to support
to have their skills recognised and effective prosecutions. A ‘sentencing
supplemented through the Police Education – the creation of a national programme, review’ has been announced, tasked with
and Qualification Framework. with a national Senior Responsible identifying clear signalling of a desire for
Officer, to support officer uplift ‘tougher’ sentencing, and a sentencing
The recruitment drive has been review to assess options for this.
accompanied by important shifts in tone – the creation of ring-fenced grants tied to The Conservative manifesto 2019
and policy from the new prime minister, national priorities (crime types) confirmed these shifts and also
home secretary, and policing minister. emphasised ongoing focus on online
Precise policy positions are not yet fixed in – consideration of a new performance threats (creating a “New national cyber
several areas but the main shifts observed framework to track police performance. crime force”), improved victim support,
by our interviewees were: and the creation of “a world class National
Central direction runs counter to a more Crime Laboratory.”
devolved approach to decision making that
14How 20,000 officers can transform UK policing| Policing 4.0
Less radical shifts in devolved policing As noted, Scotland’s situation in terms of Ongoing uncertainties in the policing
Scotland and particularly Northern Ireland officer numbers is different to the rest of context
are influenced by these developments in the UK. Scottish police officer numbers Striking across all UK nations is the ongoing
England and Wales – not least because the have been kept stable after a major uplift in uncertainty around policing, which creates
Barnett Formula links funding approaches 2008-2010, though sometimes at the cost significant challenges for planning. One
across the UK. Each country context is of having to make significant savings in staff PCC even told us diplomatically, ‘you’re
unique, however. Officer pledges in England numbers and enabling technology to keep very brave to write this in such a period of
and Wales are creating stronger pressure within expenditure limits. HM Inspectorate volatility – by the date you publish it, things
for increased officer numbers in Northern of Constabulary in Scotland (HMICS) will probably be entirely different”.44
Ireland but the decision-making process reports on understaffing of critical support
and context there is deeply challenging. roles (for example in command and A major uncertainty throughout the
After the collapse of the power-sharing control) suggest that this may have created research phase for this work was how
agreement and two and a half years an imbalance. The Scottish experience funding would be allocated – particularly
without ministers, the UK government has might therefore provide a useful warning whether national policing would receive
taken over the task of setting Northern to the rest of the UK to consider overall additional officers. The decision to use
Ireland’s departmental budgets. The UK service strength and productivity, and not the funding formula to determine force
government remains reluctant to make just officer numbers.41 The consensus view level allocation (and to exclude the
major policy changes in policing and across UK police leadership is certainly National Crime Agency from the first year’s
elsewhere, however, partly for fear these that investments in new officers must allocations) has resolved this uncertainty
will be perceived as going against the grain be balanced with investment in people, for the first year of the uplift programme
of the current constitutional settlement.39 equipment and technology. As one chief (accounting for 6,000 of 20,000 additional
Brexit affects all nations but uncertainty officer put it, “This [investment] can’t just officers). However, there remains a
related to Brexit is arguably felt more be about people, it’s about the policing question about how funding will be
acutely in Northern Ireland than anywhere. infrastructure… there is a whole array of allocated in future years and there have
Chief Constable Simon Byrne has warned policing infrastructure that shouldn’t be been renewed calls to examine the fairness
that debates over trade, customs and confused with an uplift in police officers… of the police funding formula. John Apter,
border arrangements could create a for example... digital… forensics and Chair of the Police Federation, has said “we
backdrop that fuels sectarian sentiment. air capability.”42 Another noted, “if the now have the actual number of officers
He has also flagged the need for significant 20,000 isn’t fully funded [i.e. supported by each local force will increase by in the next
additional resources to deal with increased investments in staff roles and equipment] year. These figures have been based on
demands at the border for most Brexit then you might be having officers coming the current funding formula models and,
scenarios and the worrying rise in sectarian into staff roles.”43 Several interviewees while this method is not perfect, I accept it
attacks, including on serving officers.40 noted that appropriate buildings would is the only solution available to deliver the
also be important, citing the current numbers quickly in year one. We now need
difficulties in finding appropriate meeting to ensure that the formula is revisited for
rooms for one-to-one conversations (for future years to ensure a fairer allocation of
example, line management meetings) and officers across all forces.”45
storing equipment for incoming officers.
15How 20,000 officers can transform UK policing| Policing 4.0
The key unresolved areas of uncertainty • how pension rulings will affect policing. • levels of change or disruption that will
now relate to: In June 2019, the Supreme Court ruled accompany Brexit, with the ongoing
that changes to pension arrangements possibility of a ‘hard’ exit, a ‘deal’ or even
• levels of total investment supporting for fire services and the judiciary a new decision to remain in the EU.
the 20,000 officer increase. While the made in 2015 were discriminatory as
political commitment to officer numbers they were based on age. With similar These uncertainties place unusual
provides significant reassurance changes made in policing, it is likely that and extraordinary pressures on police
regarding funding and allows recruitment compensation will need to be made, leaders. They necessitate both a
planning for officers, the lack of a but there are ongoing discussions and willingness to anticipate and plan based
spending review setting a long-term negotiations across sectors regarding how on likely developments, taking calculated
funding envelope makes it very difficult to compensation will be approached and risks – and an adaptive approach to
plan recruitment for non-warranted roles funded. An analyst has estimated the cost leadership, building reactive capacity and
and technology investments of compensation to taxpayers as being organisational resilience to policy and
around £4bn per year, a sum that could contextual change. Yet policing leaders are
• how the remaining investment will have longer-term fiscal implications.46 increasingly optimistic about the near-term
be split across policing. At the time future, as are the public. Deloitte’s State
of writing, there has been a clear signal • local political leadership. At the time of the State report showed that while
that national agencies (particularly the of writing, nearly a third of PCCs are still far from optimistic, the proportion of
NCA) will receive a proportion of future not expected to seek re-election in police who think policing will improve in
funding but the level of this funding is still the May 2020 elections. The political the coming years has improved for the first
unknown. Equally, it is unclear if and how context creates significant uncertainty time in over a decade (see Figure 9).
the allocation mechanism will change – not regarding electoral outcomes, but it is still
least because recent attempts to revise reasonable to assume that other PCCs
the funding formula have faltered due to will be replaced by political opponents.
disagreements about potential solutions Some PCCs we interviewed remained
concerned about securing a significant
electoral turnout in those areas where
few local elections are scheduled to take
place simultaneously. One chief raised the
possibility of single-issue or even extremist
candidates, noting that such an outcome
would inevitably “lead to legal challenge”. 47
Figure 9. Public views on the prospect of improved local policing
Question: Thinking about the way your area is policed over the next few years do you expect it to…?
August 2019 March 2002 – August 2019
2% 2%
50%
8% 40%
Get much better 18%
Get better 30% Worse 36%
Stay the same 29% 20% Better 20%
Get worse 10%
Get much worse 0%
42%
Don’t know 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Source: Ipsos Mori Survey on behalf of Deloitte LLP for State of the State 2019
Base: c.1360 GB adults
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