Integrating Afghanistan into the Belt and Road Initiative - Review, Analysis and Prospects

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Integrating Afghanistan into the Belt and Road Initiative - Review, Analysis and Prospects
Integrating Afghanistan
into the Belt and Road Initiative
Review, Analysis and Prospects
Mariam Safi and Bismellah Alizada
Integrating Afghanistan into the Belt and Road Initiative - Review, Analysis and Prospects
Integrating Afghanistan into the Belt and Road Initiative - Review, Analysis and Prospects
Integrating Afghanistan
into the Belt and Road Initiative
    Review, Analysis and Prospects

              August 2018
Integrating Afghanistan into the Belt and Road Initiative - Review, Analysis and Prospects
Integrating Afghanistan into the Belt and Road Initiative - Review, Analysis and Prospects
Contents
List of Figures and Tables                                                                                                         ...........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................     VI

Abbreviations                                  ...............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................    VII

Foreword     .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................    VIII

Acknowledgements                                                                               ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................    IX

Introduction                        ..........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................      X

SECTION I: THE BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE

Evolution and Status of the Belt and Road Initiative                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              .............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................     2

Challenges and Barriers to the Belt and Road Initiative                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................     10

SECTION II: AFGHANISTAN AND THE BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE

Afghanistan’s Journey from a Buffer to a Hub                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          .........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................    14

Afghanistan’s Regional Connectivity Status and Potential for Integration into the Belt and Road Initiative . ............. 20

SECTION III: AFGHANISTAN AND ITS POTENTIAL CONTRIBUTION TO THE BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE

Afghanistan’s Comparative Advantage                                                                                                                                                                                                                 ...........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................    41

Obstacles to Afghanistan’s Integration                                                                                                                                                                                                           ..............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................    44

China’s Role in Afghanistan’s Integration into the Belt and Road Initiative                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     ..............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................     46

Afghanistan and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             .............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................     48

The New Silk Road and the Belt and Road Initiative                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................    54

Conclusion            ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................     56

Endnotes   ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................    58

Bibliography                        ..........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................     73

About the Organization for Policy Research and Development Studies                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  ...........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................    77

About the authors                                                                 .............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................    78
Integrating Afghanistan into the Belt and Road Initiative - Review, Analysis and Prospects
VI

List of Figures and Tables
Figure 1.   Map of the One Belt, One Road Initiative                                                                                                                                                                           ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................    2

Figure 2. 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road                                                                                                               ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................    5

Figure 3. Sino-Afghan railway                                 .............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................   22

Figure 4. Digital Silk Road   .............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................   37

Figure 5. China-Pakistan Economic Corridor                                                                                                                               ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................   48

Table 1.    Five Nations Railway: Railway projects within Afghanistan                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 .....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................   23

Table 2.    The four corridors of the Afghanistan National Railway Plan                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             .......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................   24
Integrating Afghanistan into the Belt and Road Initiative - Review, Analysis and Prospects
VII

Abbreviations
ACCI     Afghanistan Chamber of Commerce            CEO     Chief Executive Officer
         and Industries
                                                    CPEC    China-Pakistan Economic Corridor
ADB      Asian Development Bank
                                                    DROPS   Organization for Policy Research
AISS     Afghan Institute of Strategic Studies              and Development Studies
AfRA     Afghanistan Railway Authority              FES     Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung
ANPDF    Afghan government’s National Peace         ICT     Information and Communication
         and Development Framework                          Technologies
ANRP     Afghanistan National Railway Plan          MOU     Memorandum of Understanding
APPRO    Afghanistan Public Policy Research         RECCA   Regional Economic Cooperation
         Organization                                       Conference on Afghanistan
APPTTA   Afghanistan-Pakistan Transit               SCO     Shanghai Cooperation Organization
         and Trade Agreement
                                                    SAARC   South Asian Association
ASEAN    Association of Southeast Asian Nations             for Regional Cooperation
BRI      Belt and Road Initiative                   SIPRI   Stockholm International Peace
         (One Road, One Belt Initiative)                    Research Institute
BRICS    Brazil-Russian                             TAP     Turkmenistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan
         Federation-India-China-South Africa
                                                    TAPI    Turkmenistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan–India
CAREC    Central Asia Regional Economic
         Cooperation
CASA     Central Asia to South Asia (in reference
         to the Central Asia-South Asia Regional
         Energy Market)
Integrating Afghanistan into the Belt and Road Initiative - Review, Analysis and Prospects
VIII

Foreword

China’s Belt and Road Initiative has become one of the          This uniquely comprehensive study is the result of a
largest and most ambitious strategic development plans          15-month field research endeavour led by the Kabul-
in recent history. It intends to promote connectivity,          based Organization for Policy Research and Development
economic integration and infrastructure building across         Studies. It is the first study in Afghanistan that breaks
Asia and all the way into the Middle East, Africa and           down the country’s regional and national projects in
Europe. Since the launch of the initiative by Chinese           terms of transportation and resource corridors as well as
President Xi Jinping in 2013, the volume of research            “soft” infrastructure initiatives.
studies, policy papers and journalist articles discussing its
political, security and strategic implications has steadily     Bringing together diverse viewpoints from a range
grown.                                                          of decision-makers and senior experts from within
                                                                Afghanistan and beyond, the report discusses the
In 2017, the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung (FES) and the             opportunities, challenges and barriers for Afghanistan’s
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)        integration into the BRI to inform government officials,
published a report examining the wider security dynamics        civil society experts, academics and the international
and the local and regional implications of the Silk Road        public.
Economic Belt. FES and SIPRI also initiated a workshop
series on the Maritime Silk Road, which will result in a        FES is grateful to all the interlocutors who shared their
policy paper later this year.                                   valuable insights. We are enormously indebted to the
                                                                two authors, Mariam Safi and Bismellah Alizada—their
Situated at the crossroads of Central Asia and South            hard work and original research resulted in this unique
Asia and China and the Middle East, Afghanistan has             study.
significant potential as a hub for trade, transit and
regional cooperation. But despite its strategic location,                                               Mirco Günther
Afghanistan’s integration into the BRI has received little                                             Resident Director
scholarly or public attention. This paper contributes                                                   FES Afghanistan
towards filling the research gap.                                                                          August 2018
Integrating Afghanistan into the Belt and Road Initiative - Review, Analysis and Prospects
IX

Acknowledgements

The Organization for Policy Research and Development           Atiqullah Nusrat, Chief Executive Officer at the Afghan
Studies and Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung owe the completion        Chamber of Commerce and Industries; Mohammad Yama
of this research to the selfless contribution and dedication   Shams, Director General and CEO at the Afghanistan
of many individuals, organizations and government              Railway Authority; Mohammad Sharif Rasikh, Human
agencies. The authors take this opportunity to thank all of    Resources Director at the Ministry of Public Works;
them and acknowledge that this research would not have         Rahimullah Khan Wazir, Third Secretary at Pakistan’s
been possible without their support and cooperation.           Embassy in Kabul (in 2017); Mohammad Aneel Zafar, First
                                                               Secretary at Pakistan’s Embassy in Kabul (in 2017); Saeed
We particularly thank the following individuals for            Parto, Director of Research at the Afghanistan Public Policy
granting their valuable time for in-depth interviews           Research Organization; Abdul Qadeer Mutfi, Researcher at
as well as sharing documents that helped immensely             the Afghan Institute for Strategic Studies; Oktay Tanrisever,
in developing this research: Mohammad Humayon                  Chairperson of the Energy Diplomacy Working Group in
Qayoumi, Chief Advisor to the President of Afghanistan;        the World Energy Council Turkish National Committee;
Yao Jing, former Ambassador of China to Afghanistan            Sherdil Baktygulov, Transition Cooperation Researcher
(2015–2017); Sultan Ahmad Baheen, former Ambassador            based in Kyrgyzstan; and an expert from Uzbekistan who
of Afghanistan to China (2009–2015); Nasir Ahmad               chose to remain anonymous.
Andisha, Deputy Minister for Management and Resources
at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs; Kamila Sidiqi, Deputy      The authors also express their immense gratitude to
Minister of Trade Affairs at the Ministry of Industry and      Sifat Rahimee, Chief of Staff and Director General at the
Commerce; Amanullah Ghalib, former Deputy Minister at          Ministry of Finance, and Amir Ramin, Director General
the Ministry of Energy and Water; Sayed Yahya Akhlaqi,         of Regional Economic Cooperation at the Ministry of
Director General of Trade and Transit at the Ministry of       Foreign Affairs, for their invaluable support and assistance
Industry and Commerce; Suhrab Bahman, Economic                 in coordinating discussions with government institutions
Advisor and Chief of Staff to the Minister of Economy;         during this research.
Integrating Afghanistan into the Belt and Road Initiative - Review, Analysis and Prospects
X

Introduction

This paper highlights the findings of a 15-month desk           remains aloof to the internal political and security
and field study that examined the Chinese government’s          challenges for Afghanistan, which may be why the
One Road, One Belt Initiative (known as the Belt and            Chinese government has not yet discussed how the
Road Initiative, or BRI) and how Afghanistan could              country will link to the BRI or any investment it will make
integrate into the Belt component. The analysis draws on        in Afghanistan through the initiative.
the perspectives of Afghan policy-makers, private sector
and civil society representatives and Chinese and regional      Economic and trade relations between Afghanistan and
experts.                                                        China in general, however, have improved considerably
                                                                in the past two decades. In the post-2001 era, China has
As the name implies, the BRI has two major components:          emerged as the biggest trading partner for Afghanistan.
the land-based Silk Road Economic Belt and the sea-             In 2006, a Sino-Afghan Economic Committee was
based 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road. The “One” was            established to increase that bilateral trade; and in
dropped to better reflect the multitude of belts and roads      2010, both governments signed the Comprehensive
that the initiative comprises.                                  Cooperative Partnership Agreement to boost economic
                                                                and technological cooperation. Then in 2017, both
The study is presented in three sections: (i) the evolution     governments signed a customs free trade agreement
and status of the BRI, along with its challenges and            and expanded private sector relations and cooperation
barriers; (ii) the regional economic integration aspirations    between their respective chambers of commerce.
of Afghanistan and how that fits within the BRI framework;
and (iii) the potential for Afghanistan to transform from       The wealth of mineral resources in Afghanistan has
an ancillary player to a partner with China, within the BRI.    evoked great interest from China, which has become
                                                                the largest investor in this sector. To date, China has
Chinese President Xi Jinping launched the One Road, One         won several of the country’s largest mining contracts
Belt Initiative in October 2013. It promotes connectivity       ever, such as the drilling rights in the Amu Darya Basin
between China and Eurasia by integrating the region into        and exploration rights in the Aynak copper mine. Its
a cohesive economic area through new infrastructure,            aspiration for easy transport networks to export these
increased cultural exchange and broadened trade. The            natural resources have induced investment, capacity
BRI has northern, central and southern belts, with the          building and technical assistance to the Afghan ministries
northern belt going through Central Asia, the Russian           and authorities responsible for road, highway and railway
Federation and then to Europe; the central belt traversing      development.
Central Asia and West Asia to the Persian Gulf and the
Mediterranean; and the southern belt starting in China          The Afghan government’s proactive steps towards
and proceeding to South-East Asia, then South Asia and          realizing Afghanistan as the “heart of Asia” by becoming
the Indian Ocean.                                               integral for connectivity and regional economic
                                                                cooperation has spurred its interest in deepening
Given its location at the crossroads of Central, South          its presence in the BRI. This is reflected in the 2016
and South-West Asia, Afghanistan is poised to benefit           memorandum of understanding (MOU) both countries
from and provide benefit to China within the central and        signed as an expression of commitment to jointly promote
southern belts. Because these belts are still evolving, there   cooperation under the BRI. Thus far, Afghanistan and
is a dearth of research, and even less from the perspective     China have undertaken a few projects, such as the
of Afghans, that illuminates the national thinking (if any)     Digital Silk Road, the Sino-Afghanistan Special Railway
on the BRI and on how policy-makers intend to link              Transportation Project, the Five Nations Railway Project
the country to the work being done. In the absence of           and a Kabul–Urumqi air corridor. The two governments
any rigorous evaluation, debate on the integration of           are also exploring links with the China-Pakistan Economic
Afghanistan into the BRI relies on hyperbolism regarding        Corridor that can transform Afghanistan into a regional
the possibility, potential benefits and bottlenecks. China      trade and transit hub.
XI

Despite these activities, the Chinese government              in deeply linking Afghanistan with the BRI, which they
remains vague when it comes to drawing up plans for           think only reinforces Afghanistan as a policy-taker and
Afghanistan’s integration into the BRI. The Chinese           not a policy-maker. Others are worried about the lack of
attitude towards Afghanistan’s integration into the BRI       human capital to develop hard and soft infrastructure,
appears to be enthusiasm, viewing its geographic location     if—and thus when—Afghanistan is integrated into the
as its greatest asset, followed by its wealth of untapped     massive initiative.
energy resources. But, compared with the majority of the
other 63 countries participating in the BRI, China does       The Afghan government views the BRI as an opportunity
not seem to yet consider Afghanistan as an integral,          to enable it to transform its aid-dependent economy
contributing country.                                         to one that is self-sufficient, stable and reliable. Such
                                                              a prospect will depend on a cornucopia of factors that
The Afghan government, on the other hand, remains             deserve examination beyond the scope of this research;
uncertain as to how it can induce greater interest from       in brief, they revolve around Afghanistan’s ability to build
China. Afghanistan may have designed extensive and            the hard and soft infrastructure needed to facilitate the
ambitious transportation, technology and resource             BRI while ensuring a degree of political stability and
corridor projects, but their timelines are improbable and     security. Afghanistan also must be mindful of protecting
lack due consideration for security, governance and other     its economy in the face of growing economic interests
challenges. And many authorities in the country remain        by China as the BRI proceeds, ensuring that Chinese
concerned about the lack of critical dissection, discussion   interests overlap with those of local actors and regional
and debate around the economic and political implications     and global powers.
SECTION I
THE BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE
2 · Evolution and Status of the Belt and Road Initiative

Evolution and Status of the Belt and Road Initiative

Launch of the One Belt, One Road Initiative                         tremendous discourse and research outside of China.
                                                                    Some observers pointed out that the Chinse leadership
During his trip to Kazakhstan in September 2013,                    actually encouraged “think tanks, research institutes and
Chinese President Xi Jinping announced the Silk Road                different government branches . . . to host international
Economic Belt as an enterprise to connect China with                workshops and conferences to stimulate debates.”3 With
Eurasia and thus enable cooperation with and between                the government’s delay in officially defining the BRI and
Eurasian countries (see figure 1). The initiative was the           its geographic coverage, the discussions have continued,
first manifestation of the debates among the Chinese                but clarity has been slow to take shape.
intelligentsia and politicians over China’s more assertive
role in Asia. One of the first advocates advising the               The “flexible, inclusive and open”4 nature of the initiative
government to revitalize three Silk Roads—to South-East             gave it the unique chance of benefiting from all the
Asia, to South Asia and to Central Asia1– was a Chinese             literature and maps produced to reinforce the debates
scholar professor at Beijing University. President Xi then          (and co-evolve with the debate). After all, the literature
followed with the introduction of the 21st-Century                  and maps were based on “interpretations of official
Maritime Silk Road, another ambitious initiative to connect         statements or documents.”5
China to Africa and Europe through water. Together, the
initiatives became the One Belt, One Road Initiative, now           Although still evolving, the BRI has morphed into a
better known as the Belt and Road Initiative.2                      grandiose and ambitious initiative, connecting “China
                                                                    and 64 countries with a total population of 4.4 billion by
The Chinese government remained relatively silent on                building infrastructure and boosting financial and trade
the depth and breadth of the BRI initially, which led to            ties”6 and involving 21 trillion US dollars of gross domestic

Figure 1: Map of the One Belt, One Road Initiative.
Source: Schiller Institute: http://schillerinstitute.org/economy/phys_econ/2015/18-29_EIR12-web-images/I3-silk_road_map_opt.jpeg.

Integrating Afghanistan into the Belt and Road Initiative
Evolution and Status of the Belt and Road Initiative · 3

product.7 In some documents it is painted as an even             The Belt: Six land-based economic corridors
bigger undertaking, covering 70 per cent of the global
population and 75 per cent of known energy reserves.8            The initial Silk Road Economic Belt has expanded into a
                                                                 networked blueprint of land-based economic corridors
Other analysts contend the Chinese initiative is not             that will connect China with regions in all directions. The
only about infrastructure and trade. As one German               specifics of this network, however, remain undisclosed.
researcher explained, the BRI is “a vision for building up a     One of the most comprehensive studies (2017) of the BRI
comprehensive cultural, economic and political network that      (and lauded by Chinese officials) refers to six land-based
promotes connectivity and cooperation between countries,         economic corridors: (i) the China-Mongolia-Russian
regions and cities along the Silk Road,”9 encompassing the       Federation Economic Corridor, (ii) the New Eurasian Land
Middle East, West Europe, West Asia, North Africa, South         Bridge, (iii) the China-Central Asia-West Asia Economic
Asia, South-East Asia, the Commonwealth of Independent           Corridor, (iv) the China-Indochina Peninsula Economic
States, the Russian Federation and Mongolia.10 BRI corridors     Corridor, (v) the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor
reach as far as Rotterdam, Hamburg, Prague and Madrid in         and the Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar Economic
Europe and stretch to East and North Africa, making them         Corridor.15 The official March 2015 “Vision and Actions
a truly continental network of roads, railways and ports         on Jointly Building Silk Road Economic Belt and 21st-
(and more).                                                      Century Maritime Silk Road” white paper, based on two
                                                                 years of debate and research by Chinese and non-Chinese
Its implementation, however, might take decades.                 academics, experts, journalists and government officials,
According to some sources, it may take around 35 years,          cites four economic corridors under the BRI (the first four
reaching completion in time for the 100th anniversary of         cited above). Two other economic corridors are labelled
the People’s Republic of China.11                                as “closely related to the Belt and Road Initiative” (the
                                                                 latter two cited above).16
While at the beginning it was presented as a paramount
initiative of President Xi’s administration, the BRI has grown   Of the six corridors, only the China-Pakistan Economic
into an overarching policy in which China has involved all       Corridor (CPEC) has gained the most attention, becoming
its state apparatus and with which it has aligned various        the flagship BRI project.
aspects of its politics. Some observers maintain that all
areas of Chinese politics (domestic, foreign, regional,          Constructing these corridors will require decades
etc.) fall under the BRI framework12 and involves a wide         of work and trillions of US dollars in investment. All
variety of actors, including regional state and non-state        six corridors pass through regions that have serious
actors, regional organizations and all sorts of internal         infrastructure deficits for linking with other regions, let
actors, including provincial and city governments, banks,        alone infrastructure capable of intercontinental trade and
Confucius institutes and national universities.13 Although       transit. The Chinese government has made major strides
many specifics regarding the BRI have emerged, some              in building up the rail and road networks.
observers still see it remaining undefined.14
                                                                 As of February 2016, China had signed MOUs with almost
As portrayed in a March 2015 white paper by the Chinese          30 countries17 to secure cooperation for implementing
National Development and Reform Commission and the               the BRI. In a seven-month period, more than 60 countries
now rich literature on the initiative, the BRI primary goal      and several international organizations, including the
of connecting and cooperation will take place through            United Nations Development Programme, pledged
four major connectivity and cooperation areas across             participation.18 The development of the six corridors,
the involved countries: land-based economic corridors            however, will depend on the foreign policy and trade
(the Belt), ocean-going blue economic passages (the              priorities of the Chinese government.
Road), fibre optic connectivity (the Digital Silk Road) and
energy cooperation. People-to-people bonds and soft              One of the most feasible options for Afghanistan
infrastructure are also critical elements.                       to integrate with the BRI is to link with the CPEC. On

                                                                                 Integrating Afghanistan into the Belt and Road Initiative
4 · Evolution and Status of the Belt and Road Initiative

Afghanistan Railway Authority (AfRA) maps, Afghanistan         visit to Indonesia. It was initially introduced as an ocean-
connects to Pakistan at four railway points: in Helmand,       going economic passage through the Indian Ocean to
Kandahar, Khost and Nangarhar provinces. These                 link China with East Africa, North Africa and Europe.
connections can potentially link Afghanistan to the            Along with the discourse and literature of the whole
CPEC. Nevertheless, the political relations between the        BRI endeavour came many maps of the Road, based on
two countries are marked by uncertainty and distrust.          interpretations of official statements and discussions in
Fuelled by regional alliances, border disputes, the issue      academia and the research community. In response to the
of terrorism and rocket attacks in the border areas of         range of commentary from state and non-state actors,
Afghanistan, the political tensions have led to border         the Road became known as a bigger “Blue Partnership”,
closures. The spirit of cooperation on linking Afghanistan     a rather general and undefined term used by the
to the CPEC, despite the benefits and turnovers it would       Chinese government in an official document regarding
have for Pakistan by giving it a short and easy access to      development of the Road.
the Central Asian market, remains low (see chapter 5).
                                                               In June 2017, the Chinese government released another
Another option for Afghanistan to integrate with the BRI       white paper, titled “Vision for Maritime Cooperation
is through Central Asia, where there have been some            under the Belt and Road Initiative”. Like the earlier Vision
achievements already. In September 2016, the first Chinese     and Actions white paper, this one was informed by the
train carrying cargo from China to and Afghanistan             accumulated literature and discussions on the Road
reached the border town and port of Hairatan in the            segment of the BRI. As outlined in the white paper, the
northern Balk Province ( service was later suspended again     Blue Partnership encompasses wide areas of cooperation,
due to security concerns and a lack of infrastructure). That   ranging from building unobstructed, safe and efficient
links Afghanistan to China through railway from Central        maritime transport channels19 and emergency responses
Asia, where the Silk Road Economic Belt of the BRI is also     to preserving oceanic ecosystems, sea-based industrial
traversing, and provides more potential for Afghanistan to     parks, port alliances and sea tourism. As detailed in the
integrate into the BRI (see chapter 4).                        white paper, the initial Road has become three Roads,
                                                               joined by two other economic passages. The original one,
There are other regional connectivity projects under way       which is now named the China-Indian Ocean-Africa-
that are expected to link Afghanistan to Central Asia,         Mediterranean Sea Blue Economic Passage, will run
China, the Islamic Republic of Iran (hereafter referred to     westward from the South China Sea to the Mediterranean
as Iran) and finally to Europe. One such project is the Five   Sea, passing through the Indian Ocean and linking the
Nations Railway, expected to connect China, Kyrgyzstan,        China-Indochina Peninsula Economic Corridor with the
Tajikistan, Afghanistan and Iran, thus linking China           CPEC along the way.20
to the Middle East and eventually to Europe through
Afghanistan. In a bigger picture, eventually these             Another passage will be the China-Oceania-South Pacific
networks will be linked to the BRI in one way or another.      Economic Passage, going southward from the South
Thus, Afghanistan can link to the Silk Road Economic Belt      China Sea to link China to Oceania. A third envisioned
and it can link to the CPEC—although political tensions        passage will link China to Europe via the Arctic Ocean.21
between Afghanistan and Pakistan hamper the prospects          The two latter passages are nascent ideas, the details of
for this latter connection.                                    which have yet to be defined. The challenges, the amount
                                                               of investment, the economic potential, geopolitical
                                                               implications and the possible allies to shoulder the
The Road: Three blue economic passages                         burden, together with China, are also not yet clear.

Another vital segment of the BRI initiative is the 21st-       In the government’s white paper, the vision for the Blue
Century Maritime Silk Road (see figure 2). Chinese             Partnership is “to forge a blue engine”22 for sustainable
President Xi Jinping revealed the Road segment of the          development in countries along the Road by “pairing sister
BRI one month after the Belt was introduced, during a          ports and forging port alliances.”23 Another component

Integrating Afghanistan into the Belt and Road Initiative
Evolution and Status of the Belt and Road Initiative · 5

Figure 2: 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road.
Source: http://beltandroad.zaobao.com/sites/default/files/inline_images/20170814/20170814-belt-and-road-across-europe-asia_Large.png.

of the Road is the construction of submarine cables to               and infrastructure projects already under way: the Gwadar
improve connectivity in international communications,24              port, two port projects in Sri Lanka, one port project in
which is similar to the Belt-related fibre optic connectivity.       Myanmar and two railway projects in East Africa.28

There is a “soft” aspect to the Road as well. According              Although the Road is presented as a benign initiative
to the white paper, China will set up a Global Blue                  meant to enhance maritime cooperation and stimulate
Economy Partnership Forum to “promote new concepts                   joint development in a sustainable way, there are malign
and best practices of blue economy and to boost marine               aspects to it. As a rising global power, China needs to
industrial integration and capacity cooperation.”25 China            assert control in international waters, expand its naval
has proposed that an Ocean Culture Year and Ocean                    capabilities and secure its maritime trade routes. The
Arts Festival be conducted in countries along the Road               Road is a means of maritime ascendance for China as a
“to celebrate the Maritime Silk Road’s spirit of friendly            maritime power to challenge the United States’ grip on
cooperation.”26                                                      the oceans.

There has been some progress towards realization of the
first passage of the Road. According to the white paper, as          Fibre optics connectivity: Digital Silk Road
of June 2017, China had singed MOUs, agreements and
joint statements with several countries along the Road,              Communication is vital for trade. Speed in communication
including Cambodia, India, Malaysia, Maldives, South                 matters greatly. The BRI vision for regional and
Africa and Thailand.27 And there are several investment              intercontinental trade will be heavily dependent on

                                                                                       Integrating Afghanistan into the Belt and Road Initiative
6 · Evolution and Status of the Belt and Road Initiative

communication speed, and in this context, the Digital           push forward the green and low-carbon development
Silk Road is an inseparable component of the Belt as well       of regional energy.”37 The cooperation will cover policy
as the Road. The 2015 Vision and Actions white paper            coordination, energy investment, energy production
referred to the Digital Silk Road29 as imperative to the BRI:   capacity, energy infrastructure connectivity and global
“We should jointly advance the construction of cross-           energy governance and structure.
border optical cables and other communication trunk
line networks, improve international communications             There is a demand in both China and South Asia for
connectivity and create an Information Silk Road.” And          gas and electricity, which is abundant in Central Asia.
the 2017 white paper on the Road noted that “projects           Therefore, energy cooperation and energy infrastructure
for the planning and construction of submarine cables           connectivity will be an important topic under the BRI,
will be jointly advanced to improve connectivity in             which already provides other hard and soft infrastructure
international communications.”30                                for regional and extra-regional connectivity.

Through the Digital Silk Road, China aims to connect            There are no specifics on the BRI energy cooperation as of
Afghanistan with Pakistan, India, Tajikistan, Iran,             now, however; therefore, determining Afghanistan’s role
Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and ultimately Europe.31 The           in the initiative is difficult. But Afghanistan will certainly
two major projects under the Digital Silk Road have been        have a significant role in energy cooperation between
the Wakhan Corridor and CPEC fibre optic connectivity.          Central Asia and South Asia—a role that has been
Afghanistan and China signed an agreement in April              recognized, with several energy transmission projects
2017 to connect through a fibre optic line through the          under way. Given its location, Afghanistan of course will
Wakhan Corridor,32 a 50 million US dollar project funded        not have any role in energy transmission from Central
by the World Bank. As of October 2017, according to the         Asia to China.
Ministry of Communications and Information Technology,
25 provinces in Afghanistan are connected by fibre
optics,33 and nine more provinces will be connected in          People-to-people bonds
three months.
                                                                The BRI provides plenty of opportunity for people-to-
China has invested 44 million US dollars for the CPEC           people bonds that can help support the implementing
fibre optic cable laying,34 which commenced in October          of the initiative. This encompasses cultural and academic
2015 and was to be completed in December 2017;35                exchanges, personnel exchanges and cooperation,
but according to a Ministry of Communications and               media cooperation, youth and women exchanges and
Information Technology official, the project will be            volunteer services.38 On deeper consideration, these
finished by 2019.36 Upon completion of the project,             exchanges also read as an opportunity for the Chinese
China will be connected to South Asia, Central Asia, Iran       government to capitalize on the environment provided
and ultimately Europe either through fibre optics or the        by the BRI to extend its cultural influence. For instance,
Digital Silk Road.                                              the Chinese government will provide 10,000 scholarships
                                                                to students in BRI-related countries every year (perceived
                                                                as a considerable number) to study in China.39 The
Energy cooperation                                              government already supports other cultural programmes,
                                                                such as festivals, book fairs and cooperation in science
In June 2017, the Chinese government issued an                  and technology.40
additional white paper, this time on “Vision and Actions
on Energy Cooperation in Jointly Building the Silk Road         One physical manifestation of the cultural exchange
Economic Belt and 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road”,             and people-to-people bonding is the Confucius Institute
stating that “the Initiative . . . aims to improve regional     at Kabul University, which was established in 2008 and
energy safety and to optimize the distribution of energy        is now running a Chinese Department.41 The Chinese
resources. It will integrate regional energy markets and        government has pledged to provide 500 scholarships

Integrating Afghanistan into the Belt and Road Initiative
Evolution and Status of the Belt and Road Initiative · 7

for Afghan students to study at the university per year       picture of the BRI as having no political or geostrategic
between 2015 and 2019.42 The prospects for broader            agenda, it reveals that the initiative seeks “to jointly
people-to-people relations between Afghanistan and            build the Belt and Road, embracing the trend towards a
China seem manifold.                                          multipolar world, economic globalization [and] cultural
                                                              diversity.”46

Soft infrastructure                                           The government’s agenda for the BRI appears to differ
                                                              from region to region within China. There is great
To prepare for implementation of BRI projects and to          potential for political instability due to unbalanced
make the hard infrastructure function as desired, there       development across its territory, particularly in the
is need for soft infrastructure across the Belt and Road      northern and western autonomous areas where
countries. In this context, soft infrastructure refers        separatist sentiments are rife. As analyst Jacob Shapiro
to all the necessary bilateral, trilateral or multilateral    wrote, “BRI is one small part of Xi’s attempt to accomplish
agreements that facilitate and/or incentivize transport,      what successive Chinese leaders have failed to do:
trade and transit activities in the BRI countries.            distribute the wealth of the coast to the impoverished
                                                              parts of China’s interior without causing crippling levels
Although China has signed MOUs with many of the BRI           of instability.”47 The Vision and Actions white paper
countries, conditions are not yet ideal. For instance, a      acknowledges the need for development of China’s
Chinese train that reached Hairatan in 2016 returned          different regions, including Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang
without any cargo because there was no trade and              Uygur, Tibet and Guangxi Zhuang autonomous regions,
transit agreement between Afghanistan, Uzbekistan             with each planned as a connection point between
and Kyrgyzstan. There are also disputes between Central       China and its surrounding regions through each of the
Asian States, between Afghanistan and Pakistan and            economic corridors. According to authors Richard Ghiasy
in other regions that remain challenges to progressing        and Jiayi Zhou, the Chinese government believes that
the initiative. Although Afghan President Ghani signed        the country’s economic growth can be maintained by
23 trade and transit agreements with Uzbekistan in            expanding markets beyond its borders.48
December 2017,43 more needs to be done in terms of
tariff policies, easy license issuing mechanisms and other    Separatism, however, is not the only concern for
port services. There are also disputes between Central        the Chinese leaders. As scholars like Michael Clarke
Asian States, between Afghanistan and Pakistan, and in        have pointed out, the government and the Shanghai
other regions that render the immediate prospects of soft     Cooperation Organization (SCO) are determined to fight
infrastructure of the BRI bleak.                              what the SCO terms as the “three evils” of “terrorism,
                                                              extremism and separatism”.49 Containing and fighting
                                                              terrorism and extremism is a real concern for the Chinese,
Vision and prospects for the Belt                             particularly in the Xinjiang Autonomous Region, and for
and Road Initiative                                           neighbouring governments who need stability to attract
                                                              investments (see chapter 2).
In the 2015 Vision and Actions white paper and in
comments made by Chinese officials during formal              Another facet of the BRI is to export Chinese labourers,
occasions, the plans for the BRI echo the Silk Road spirit:   particularly “excessive capacities in sectors such as steel,
“peace and cooperation, openness and inclusiveness,           construction, transportation and manufacturing,”50 and
mutual learning and mutual benefit.”44 Some scholars          to create investment opportunities for the country’s
(outside of China) see it similarly, pointing out that        massive forex reserves,51 which amounted to 3.21 trillion
unlike the Marshall Plan, the BRI has no political            US dollars52 as of March 2016. As a rising power in Asia,
agenda.45 The BRI, however, is more complicated than          China needs to contain other players in the immediate
that and more controversial. For instance, even though        region so that it can promote its influence; an important
the Vision and Actions white paper presents a positive        aspect of China’s strategy in Central Asia, for instance,

                                                                              Integrating Afghanistan into the Belt and Road Initiative
8 · Evolution and Status of the Belt and Road Initiative

is “to combat the influence of the United States and            importance of Central and Eastern European countries
India.”53 In doing so, China seeks to consolidate its           in the BRI and unveiled a package of 3 billion US dollars
foothold in the region by “bolstering the role of the           of Chinese investment in the region and another 1
SCO”54 so as to provide the Central Asian States with a         billion US dollars of investment in the China-Central
“viable alternative to closer security and military relations   and Eastern European Investment Fund.60 Other such
with the United States.”55                                      cooperation mechanisms and platforms that China will
                                                                avail, also mentioned in the Vision and Actions white
Increasing the country’s dominance in the Indian Ocean          paper, are the SCO, the Brazil-Russian Federation-India-
and finding an alternative route for its seaborne oil           China-South Africa (BRICS) alliance, the Association of
imports is another agenda for the Chinese under the             Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) plus China (10+1), the
BRI. China is dependent upon foreign supplies for 60            Asia-Europe Meeting, the Asia Cooperation Dialogue,
per cent of its oil need, half of which is supplied by          the Conference on Interaction and Confidence-Building
the Middle East and another quarter of it shipped from          Measures in Asia, the China-Arab States Cooperation
Africa.56 According to Ghiasy and Zhou, 80 per cent             Forum, the China-Gulf Cooperation Council Strategic
of China’s energy supplies pass through the Strait of           Dialogue, the Greater Mekong Subregion Economic
Malacca, which is controlled by the United States Navy.57       Cooperation and the Central Asia Regional Economic
The Chinese government plans to strengthen its control          Cooperation.61
over its trade routes in the Indian Ocean and the Strait
of Malacca to ensure the security of its energy supply          Although some researchers maintain that the BRI is
while it also plans to build the CPEC as an alternative         underfunded,62 the Chinese government has taken
(shorter and thus cheaper) route.                               significant steps to establish financial institutions to
                                                                buttress the implementation. The Asian Infrastructure
In a nutshell, China’s vision for the BRI is to seize the       Investment Bank was established in October 2014 with
opportunity to “translate its economic prowess and              100 billion US dollars—more than a third of which
capital into more political influence.”58 China’s priorities    China contributed.63 Another strong financial institution
are nuanced when different regions are concerned, but           is the Silk Road Fund, established with 40 billion US
overall, the BRI is meant to enable China to rise as a          dollars, all provided by the Chinese government.64
world economic power with greater influence in security,        The New Development Bank (previously called the
geopolitical and political agendas across the BRI countries     BRICS Development Bank) has 100 billion US dollars of
and beyond.                                                     investment the BRI can draw upon.65 The Export-Import
                                                                Bank of China is reportedly another major funding
                                                                mechanism for the BRI.66 According to the Vision and
Supporting institutions                                         Actions white paper, the Chinese government will
                                                                strengthen practical cooperation with the China-ASEAN
China has capitalized on existing institutions to               Interbank Association and the Shanghai Cooperation
promote the BRI but has also established new ones.              Organization Interbank Association.67
These institutions can be categorized into financial and
investment institutions, political and security cooperation     In the Road segment, as the Vision for Maritime
institutions and multilateral forums as well as research        Cooperation white paper claimed, “the Chinese
institutions.                                                   government has mobilized domestic resources and set
                                                                up the China-ASEAN Maritime Cooperation Fund and
In April 2012, China approached 16 of the Central               the China-Indochina Maritime Cooperation Fund.”68
and Eastern European countries to create a mechanism            The amount of available funds with these institutions,
for dialogue and regional cooperation that resulted in          however, is not known. The Chinese government
the “16+1” forum.59 In the 2014 summit of the 16+1              announced in 2015 a plan to invest 900 billion US dollars
countries in Belgrade, which ended with the Belgrade            in the BRI.69 In May 2017, the Economic Times, quoting
Guidelines, the Chinese prime minister stressed the             a Chinese official, reported that China planned to invest

Integrating Afghanistan into the Belt and Road Initiative
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