INTERNAL DISPLACEMENT IN 2019 - IDMC

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INTERNAL DISPLACEMENT IN 2019 - IDMC
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                                                    PART 1
                                                 INTERNAL
                                              DISPLACEMENT
                                                  IN 2019

A Syrian family walks through the rubble of their
neighbourhood in Homs.
Photo © UNHCR/Vivian Tou’meh, March 2019

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   NEW DISPLACEMENTS

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            PART 1
Conflict and disasters triggered 33.4 million new internal                                                           Conflict continued unabated in countries such as
displacements across 145 countries and territories in                                                                Afghanistan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo
2019. Most of the disaster displacements were the result                                                             (DRC) and Syria, which are also home to some of the
of tropical storms and monsoon rains in South Asia                                                                   largest numbers of people living in protracted displace-
and East Asia and Pacific. Bangladesh, China, India and                                                              ment. Violence increased sharply in Burkina Faso, Mali
the Philippines each recorded more than four million,                                                                and Niger, triggering significant new displacement. In
many of them pre-emptive evacuations led by govern-                                                                  countries including Nigeria, South Sudan and Yemen,
ments. Many evacuees, however, had their displace-                                                                   disasters forced many people already displaced by
ment prolonged because their homes were damaged                                                                      conflict to flee for a second time.
or destroyed.

                                                                                                                                                                          India
                                                                                                                         New displacements in millions
                                                                                                                                                         5

                                                                                                                                                                                        pines

                                                                                                                                                                                                     esh
                                                                                                                                                                                      Philip
Figure 1: Fifty countries and territories with most new

                                                                                                                                                                                                    glad
displacements in 2019
                                                                                                                                                         4

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                                                                                                                                                                                                          Sudan
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                                                                                                                                                                                                   Total new               Total new
                                                                           d

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                                                                        an

                                                                               Iraq

                                                                                                                      150,000                                                                      displacements:          displacements:
                                                                     Ug

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                                                                                                                                                                                                   8.5 million             24.9 million
                                                                                            Cong

                                                                                                     bia

                                                                                                             Niger
                                                                                                    Colom
INTERNAL DISPLACEMENT IN 2019 - IDMC
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       Figure 2: New displacements in 2019: breakdown for
       conflict and disasters

                                                    8.5m
                                                                                                       33.4m
                                                   Total new                                           Total new
                                                displacements
                 252,000
                 16,600                          (conflict and                                       displacements
                                                   violence)
                 Violence                                                                                in 2019
                 (political)

                          39,700
                         252,000
                                                                               5.2m
                                                                                Armed
                                                                                conflict
                               Other                                                                *Due to rounding, some totals may not correspond
                                                                                                          with the sum of the separate figures.

                                       592,900
                                       252,000
                                                                  2.7m

                                       Violence
                                                                   Violence
                                       (criminal)
                                                                 (communal)

       Disasters triggered nearly three-quarters of the new                   in certain areas. Disaster displacement often takes place
       displacements recorded worldwide in 2019, accounting                   in highly urbanised areas such as the eastern seaboards
       for 24.9 million. More than 95 per cent were the result                of China and the US (see Figure 4). Conflict displace-
       of weather-related hazards such as storms and floods.                  ment occurs in pockets, including the eastern provinces
       The overwhelming majority of conflict displacements                    of DRC, southern Somalia or departments on Colom-
       were triggered by armed conflict, but communal                         bia’s Pacific coast (see Figure 3). Many of these areas
       violence accounted for a significant proportion of the                 experienced various displacement events during the
       global total of 8.5 million (see Figure 2).                            year. Beyond the global picture, it is important to shed
                                                                              light on these local specifics.
       Geolocated data on internal displacement shows that
       although the phenomenon is a global challenge, even
       within countries and regions it tends to be concentrated

       Figure 3: Conflict displacements in 2019 by location

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                                                                                                         PART 1
                                           922,500

                                                                                          11.9m
                              947,000     Earthquakes

                                                                                           Cyclones,
                                                 24,500                                   hurricanes,
                          Geophysical                                                      typhoons
                                              Volcanic
                                             eruptions

 24.9m                                                                13m                    1.1m
  Total new                                                             Storms
displacements
  (disasters)
                                                                                          Other storms

                                           23.9m
                                         Weather related
                                                                                 10m
                                                                                 Floods

                     24,500                                          528,500

                    Extreme                               276,700
                  temperatures          65,800                       Wildfires

                                   Landslides             Droughts

Figure 4: Disaster displacements in 2019 by location
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                         PEOPLE LIVING IN DISPLACEMENT
                       Conflict and violence                                                                 Five countries – Afghanistan, Colombia, DRC, Syria and
                                                                                                             Yemen – account for more than half of the global total.
                A record 45.7 million people were living in internal                                         People may have been displaced by recent events, but
                displacement as a result of conflict and violence in 61                                      the figures also include those who have been living in
                countries and territories as of 31 December 2019 (see                                        internal displacement for decades in countries such as
                Figure 5). This figure is the highest ever recorded. It is                                   Palestine, Peru, the Philippines and Sudan (see table 3
                also another reminder that internally displaced people                                       and the online methodological annex). Many millions
                (IDPs) make up an overwhelming majority of people                                            of IDPs still face significant obstacles in their efforts
                to have fled conflict and violence worldwide. They                                           to bring their displacement to a sustainable end. This
                outnumbered refugees by 19.8 million last year.1                                             highlights the urgent need to strengthen our collective
                                                                                                             effort to address an ever-growing challenge.

                Figure 5: Total number of IDPs by conflict and violence as of 31 December 2019

                                                                                                                                                                                                More than 1,500,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                 500,001-1,500,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                   100,001-500,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                    20,001-100,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                       20,000 or less

                                                                             Iraq
                                                                       1,555,000

                                                                            Syria
                                                                       6,495,000

                                                        Colombia           Sudan
                                                        5,576,000      2,134,000

                                                                          Nigeria
                                                                       2,583,000
                                                                                                                                        Afghanistan
                                                                                                                                        2,993,000

                                                                                                                                        Yemen
                                                                                                                                        3,635,000

                                                                                                                                        Somalia
                                                                                                                                        2,648,000
                       Total number of IDPs as
                       a result of conflict and                Dem. Rep. Congo                                                          Ethiopia
                       violence in 61                                5,512,000                                                          1,414,000
                       countries and
                       territories as of
     45.7 m            31 December 2019

     The boundaries, names and the designations used on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by IDMC.

      10 countries and territories with the highest number              Other countries
      of IDPs as of 31 December 2019

                                                                       South Sudan                   1,352,000              Mali                       208,000               Countries and territories reporting less than
                                                                       Turkey                        1,099,000              Niger                      195,000               20,000 people displaced by order of
                                                                       Cameroon                        969,000              Philippines
                             34.5 m                                    Ukraine                         730,000              Chad
                                                                                                                                                       182,000
                                                                                                                                                       176,000
                                                                                                                                                                             magnitude:

                                                                       Central African Republic        592,000              Kenya                      162,000               Kosovo, Papua New Guinea, Senegal,
                                                                       Burkina Faso                    560,000              Congo                      134,000               Lebanon, Sierra Leone, Benin, Madagascar,
                                                                       India                           470,000              Mozambique                 110,000               Haiti, Togo, Russia, South Africa, Ghana,
                                                                       Myanmar                         457,000              Pakistan                   106,000               Malawi, Macedonia, Bolivia and Tunisia
     Syria                                         6,495,000           Libya                           451,000              Bosnia and Herzegovina      99,000
     Colombia                                      5,576,000           Bangladesh                      427,000              Egypt                       97,000
     Dem. Rep. Congo                               5,512,000           Azerbaijan                      351,000              Peru                        60,000
     Yemen                                         3,635,000           Mexico                          345,000              Thailand                    41,000
     Afghanistan                                   2,993,000           Côte d'Ivoire                   303,000              Indonesia                   40,000
     Somalia                                       2,648,000           Georgia                         301,000              Uganda                      32,000
     Nigeria                                       2,583,000           Honduras                        247,000              Abyei Area                  31,000
     Sudan                                         2,134,000           Palestine                       243,000              Sri Lanka                   27,000
     Iraq                                          1,555,000           Guatemala                       242,000              Burundi                     23,000
     Ethiopia                                      1,414,000           Cyprus                          228,000
                                                                                                                                    Due to rounding, some totals may not correspond with the sum of the separate figures.

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                                                                                                               with 1.2 million IDPs who fled drought and floods in
                Disasters

                                                                                                                                                                                                                           PART 1
                                                                                                               recent years (see Figure 6). Hundreds of thousands
                                                                                                               more were still displaced after disasters that struck
           At least 5.1 million people were internally displaced by                                            during the year in countries such as India, Ethiopia and
           disasters across 95 countries and territories as of 31                                              South Sudan. Around 33,000 people were still living
           December 2019 (see Figure 6). This is the first time such                                           in displacement in Haiti a decade after the devastating
           a global figure has been compiled. About 90 per cent of                                             2010 earthquake.2
           the total is made up of people displaced during the year.
           The remainder were displaced in previous years, and                                                 The scarcity of time-series data makes it difficult to fully
           were included in the estimate when evidence of their                                                understand the scale and nature of protracted displace-
           continued displacement was available. The overall figure                                            ment triggered by disasters and climate change impacts.
           is an underestimate, because little data is collected on                                            Assuming that IDPs return to their homes soon after
           how long people are displaced for following disasters                                               disasters may lead to the incorrect assumption that
           (see online methodological annex).                                                                  they no longer have vulnerabilities associated with their
                                                                                                               displacement. The reality is often more complex and
           Afghanistan had the highest number of people still                                                  these initial estimates, however conservative, constitute
           displaced as a result of disasters at the end of 2019,                                              a first step toward filling this major knowledge gap.

           Figure 6: Total number of IDPs by disasters as of 31 December 2019

                                                                                                                                                                                                  More than 500,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                   100,001-500,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                    20,001-100,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                      20,000 or less

                                                                              Iran
                                                                          180,000

                                                                                                                                                                                       China
                                                                                                                                                                                       220,000

                                                                            Sudan
                                                                          272,000

                                                                           Nigeria                                                                                                     Philippines
                                                                          143,000                                                                                                      364,000
                                                                                                                                        India
                                                                                                                                        590,000

                                                                                                                                        Afghanistan
                                                                                                                                        1,198,000

                                                                                                                                        Ethiopia
                                                                                                                                        390,000
                  Total number of
                  IDPs as a result of                          Dem. Rep. Congo                                                          South Sudan
                  disasters in 95                                      168,000                                                          246,000
                  countries and
                  territories as of
5.1 m             31 December 2019

The boundaries, names and the designations used on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by IDMC.

 10 countries and territories with the highest number                    Other countries
 of IDPs as of 31 December 2019

                                                                        Mozambique                   132,000           Countries and territories with less than 20,000 people displaced by order of magnitude:
                                                                        Niger                        121,000
             3.8 m                                                      Congo                        107,000           Comoros, Pakistan, Malaysia, Australia, Ghana, Burundi, Papua New Guinea, Viet Nam, Canada,
                                                                        Indonesia                    104,000           Mali, Peru, Rwanda, Lao PDR, Sri Lanka, Gambia, Russia, Syria, Sierra Leone, Cuba, Tajikistan,
                                                                        Central African Republic      95,000           France, Bolivia, Korea, Chile, Colombia, United Kingdom, Brazil, Kenya, Madagascar, Guatemala,
                                                                        Bangladesh                    88,000           Cambodia, Tanzania, Angola, Uganda, Dem. People's Rep. Korea, Bahamas, Fiji, Liberia, Somalia,
                                                                        Japan                         88,000           Taiwan, Côte d'Ivoire, Guinea-Bissau, Thailand, Yemen, Iraq, Venezuela, Ecuador, Israel, Lebanon,
Afghanistan              1,198,000                                      Malawi                        54,000           Azerbaijan, Barbados, Mauritius, Senegal, Turkey, Vanuatu, South Africa, Zambia, Panama, United
India                      590,000                                      Zimbabwe                      52,000           Arab Emirates, Nicaragua, Dominican Republic, Guinea, Northern Mariana Islands, New Zealand, St.
Ethiopia                   390,000                                      Haiti                         51,000           Lucia, Puerto Rico, French Polynesia and Trinidad and Tobago
Philippines                364,000                                      Myanmar                       41,000
Sudan                      272,000                                      United States                 37,000
South Sudan                246,000                                      Albania                       32,000
China                      220,000                                      Nepal                         29,000
Iran                       180,000                                      Cameroon                      28,000
Dem. Rep. Congo            168,000                                      Chad                          27,000
Nigeria                    143,000                                      Abyei Area                    26,000

                                                                                                                                  Due to rounding, some totals may not correspond with the sum of the separate figures.
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             REGIONAL OVERVIEWS

           Conflict and violence

        Figure 7: Conflict and violence: new displacements by region in 2019

                aharan Afr                                  America                                   sia and Pac
            ub-S          ic                            The        s                               stA           ifi
           S                                                                                      a
                              a

                                                                                              E

                                                                                                                   c
                 4,597,000             E
                                             nd
                                        ast a North          602,000             South Asia          288,000             e an
                                                                                                                             d Centra
                                                                                                                                     lA
                                    le                                                                                 op
                                                              7.0%                                    3.4%
                                                   Af

                                                                                                                   r
                  53.7%
                                d

                                                                                                                                      sia
                                                                                                                 Eu
                             Mid

                                                     rica

                 of global
                   total

                                       2,566,000                                 498,000                                   2,800
                                        30.0%                                     5.8%                                     0.03%

        Most of the new displacements triggered by conflict and             The number of new displacements fell in some countries
        violence in 2019 were recorded in Sub-Saharan Africa                thanks to successful ceasefire agreements and peace-
        and the Middle East and North Africa. The majority took             building initiatives, as in the Central African Republic
        place in Syria, DRC and Ethiopia, as in previous years. An          (CAR), Iraq and South Sudan. Many such situations are
        unprecedented number was recorded in Burkina Faso,                  still fragile, however, and more efforts are needed to
        and significant increases in Mali and Libya. A combina-             reduce the risk of conflict and displacement reoccurring.
        tion of improved data collection and persistent conflict            Humanitarian aid remains essential for IDPs, but it will
        and violence also led to a rise in figures for countries            take longer-term development interventions to resolve
        such as El Salvador and Yemen.                                      the underlying challenges that prolong the displacement
                                                                            of millions of people.

        Figure 8: Ten countries with the most new displacements by conflict and violence in 2019

         1.8m
                      1.7m

                                     1.1m

                                              513,000       461,000    454,000     398,000
                                                                                              284,000      259,000      248,000

         Syria       Dem.     Ethiopia        Burkina Afghanistan    El            Yemen       Mali          South       Nigeria
                   Rep. Congo                  Faso               Salvador                                   Sudan

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                                                                                                                                     PART 1
    Disasters

Figure 9: Disasters: new displacements by region in 2019

        sia and Pac                               aharan Afr                                    t and Nort
    as
      tA           ifi                        ub-S          ic                             e Eas          h
                                             S                                            l

                                                             a
E

                                                                                                          Af
                       c

                                                                                      d
                                                                                   Mid

                                                                                                            rica
                            South Asia                                      America                                 d Centra
                                                                        The        s                            e an        lA
       9,601,000                                3,448,000                                      631,000        op

                                                                                                           r

                                                                                                                               sia
                                                                                                         Eu
       38.6%                                     13.9%                                          2.5%
      of global
        total

                            9,529,000                                   1,545,000                                  101,000
                             38.3%                                        6.2%                                      0.4%

Most of the new displacements triggered by disasters in                 already displaced by conflict who are then forced to
2019 were recorded in East Asia and Pacific and South                   flee disasters, are of particular concern. As countries
Asia, as in previous years. Monsoon rains, floods and                   move forward in implementing the Sendai Frame-
tropical storms hit highly exposed areas that are home                  work for Disaster Risk Reduction, they should consider
to millions of people. The majority of the new displace-                displacement as part of their risk reduction, response
ments were in the form of government-led pre-emptive                    and recovery frameworks.
evacuations. These successfully reduced the number of
people killed in a number of large disasters and highlight
the fact that not all displacement is negative.                                                                              5m

Figures should be looked at relative to countries’ popu-
                                                                                          4m         4.1m          4.1m
lation size and their capacity to cope with disasters.
Poor and marginalised communities, including people

Figure 10: Ten countries with the most new displacements by
disasters in 2019

                                                                           916,000

           463,000       479,000   504,000      506,000     520,000

           Indonesia     Somalia   Ethiopia Mozambique           Iran     United States China     Bangladesh Philippines     India
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        SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

                                      5 COUNTRIES WITH MOST
                                      NEW DISPLACEMENTS
                                                    DRC                                     1,905,000

                                                 Ethiopia                             1,556,000

                                                 Somalia               667,000

            Conflict 4,597,000               South Sudan             553,000
            Disasters 3,448,000
          24.1% of the global total          Burkina Faso            513,000

        Sub-Saharan Africa was once again the region most                Many countries in Central Africa continued to suffer
        affected by conflict displacement in 2019. Armed                 the effects of communal conflicts, while the interlinked
        conflict, communal violence and jihadist attacks                 triggers of conflict and climate change in East Africa
        continued in several countries, some of which are                forced people to flee their homes in Ethiopia, Somalia
        struggling to deal with protracted crises. Widespread            and South Sudan.
        poverty, longstanding economic stagnation, lack of
        development, competition over diminishing resources              Figures for displacement associated with disasters in
        and the effects of climate change are among the factors          sub-Saharan Africa are lower than for conflict and
        that increase the risk of displacement.                          violence, but they are still cause for concern. The 3.4
                                                                         million new displacements recorded in 2019 represent
        The same factors also aggravate its impacts, height-             one of the highest figures ever for the region (see Figure
        ening and prolonging IDPs’ vulnerability. Around 19.2            11). Unusually heavy rains caused widespread flooding
        million people were living in internal displacement as           in several countries, where a chronic accumulation of
        a result of conflict and violence as of the end of 2019,         vulnerabilities and risks aggravated its impacts and
        the highest figure in the world and the highest ever             fuelled displacement.
        recorded for the region.
                                                                         Countries in the East and Horn of Africa experienced
        Historical data shows that internal displacement asso-           one of the wettest rainy seasons in 40 years.3 Flooding
        ciated with conflict and violence has increased in sub-          along the White Nile basin forced many people already
        Saharan Africa over the past decade (see Figure 11).             displaced by conflict to flee again (see White Nile basin
        There were 4.6 million new displacements recorded in             spotlight, p.27). Mozambique bore the brunt of
        2019, accounting for nearly 54 per cent of the global            cyclones Idai and Kenneth, which triggered hundreds
        total. Jihadist groups operating in the Sahel region esca-       of thousands of displacements and destroyed homes,
        lated their attacks and triggered mass displacement in           infrastructure and crops. Comoros, Madagascar, Malawi
        countries including Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger (see            and Zimbabwe were also hard hit (see Mozambique
        The Sahel spotlight, p.23).                                      spotlight, p.25).

        Boko Haram’s insurgency, now in its tenth year, and              Nearly two million people were thought to be living
        operations against the group continued to trigger signif-        in internal displacement as a result of disasters in sub-
        icant new displacement and prolong its duration across           Saharan Africa as of the end of the year.
        the Lake Chad basin, a region that also has to contend
        with environmental degradation and desertification.

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                                                                                                                 and violence as of the end of the year, and around
                            Central Africa

                                                                                                                                                                               PART 1
                                                                                                                 15.9 million were expected to need humanitarian assis-
                                                                                                                 tance in 2020.6 The country also had to deal with its
The region’s most affected                                                                                       second largest Ebola outbreak, a measles outbreak and
country in 2019 was the                                                                                          a cholera outbreak, which between them killed thou-
Democratic Republic of                                                                                           sands of people.
the Congo (DRC), where
ethnic tensions, local grievances                                                                                Heavy rains and flooding affected 12 of DRC’s 26 prov-
and chronic poverty are the major drivers of internal                                                            inces between October and December.7 The country
displacement. Nearly 1.7 million new conflict displace-                                                          as a whole recorded 233,000 new disaster displace-
ments were reported during the year, compared with                                                               ments, the highest ever figure. Floods triggered 137,000
more than 1.8 million in 2018 and 2.2 million in 2017.                                                           in Nord-Ubangui and Sud-Ubangui provinces, which
                                                                                                                 border the Central African Republic (CAR), and Tshopo
Clashes between the military and armed groups in                                                                 province was also badly affected. Around 168,000
the eastern province of North Kivu triggered 520,000                                                             people in DRC were thought to be living in displace-
new displacements, primarily in Lubero and Rutshuru                                                              ment as a result of disasters as of the end of the year.
territories, and an upsurge in intercommunal violence
between the Hema and Lendu communities triggered                                                                 The government of CAR signed a peace deal with
453,000 in the north-eastern province of Ituri. There                                                            14 armed groups in early February after more than
was also an escalation of conflict between armed                                                                 two years of negotiations facilitated by the African
groups and intercommunal violence in South Kivu,                                                                 Union.8 Implementation is progressing despite several
where 401,000 displacements were recorded, mainly                                                                setbacks and disagreements that were resolved with
in Mwenga and Fizi territories. Most of the people                                                               help from the international community, and the number
displaced were women and children.                                                                               of new conflict displacements fell from 510,000 in 2018
                                                                                                                 to 96,000 in 2019. The security situation remains fragile,
The political situation in DRC remains tense, despite the                                                        however, and IDPs’ needs largely unmet.
fact that 2019 marked the first peaceful transition of
power in the country’s history.4 The new government                                                              The most serious violence of the year occurred in Birao
inherited a series of challenges, not least the activities of                                                    in Vakaga prefecture, where 24,000 new displace-
more than 100 armed groups in the east and ongoing                                                               ments were recorded in September as a result of clashes
conflict in other areas.5 Around 5.5 million people were                                                         between the Popular Front for the Renaissance of the
living in internal displacement as a result of conflict                                                          Central African Republic and the Movement of Central

Figure 11: New displacements by conflict, violence and disasters in Sub-Saharan Africa (2009-2019)
                                 8
                                                                                                                                                       7.4
                                                 Conflict and violence

                                                 Disasters
                                                                                  5.9*
                                 6
                                                                                                                                          5.5*
 New displacements in millions

                                                                                                     4.5                                                           4.6

                                 4                                                       3.7
                                                                                                                                                                         3.4

                                                                                                                              2.6                2.6         2.6
                                                                            2.4
                                     2.2                                                                          2.2
                                                                1.9
                                 2                        1.7
                                                                                               1.6
                                           1.1      1.2                                                                 1.1         1.1
                                                                      0.6                                  0.7

                                 0
                                      2009           2010        2011        2012         2013        2014         2015        2016        2017         2018        2019

        * Updated figures. For further details see methodological annex, available online.
17
                African Freedom Fighters for Justice, both signatories            Disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration activi-
                to the peace deal.9                                               ties continued in the east of the country following the
                                                                                  signing of a peace deal between the Ninja militia and
                CAR also suffered its worst flooding in 20 years in 2019,         the government in December 2017.13 The region has
                and the capital Bangui was among the places hardest               regained stability since, but there were still around
                hit. About 102,000 new displacements were recorded                134,000 people living in displacement as a result of
                across the country, and the floods caused extensive               the conflict at the end of the year, around 79,000 of
                damage to infrastructure and livelihoods. More than               them in Pool department.
                10,000 homes were destroyed, and wells and latrines
                overflowed.10 About 6,700 hectares of farmland in                 The security situation in anglophone areas of Came-
                Ouham prefecture were inundated, aggravating food                 roon has been deteriorating for the last two years.
                insecurity. More than a third of CAR’s population of 4.7          Clashes between anglophone separatists and the secu-
                million were facing acute food insecurity and in need             rity forces have increased in Northwest and Southwest
                of emergency assistance as of the end of the year.11              regions, and they spilled over into West and Littoral
                                                                                  regions in 2019.14 Lack of access has impeded an accu-
                The Republic of Congo was also hit by its worst floods            rate assessment of the number of new displacements,
                in decades, which damaged or destroyed infrastructure,            leading to a conservative estimate of 26,000. Boko
                crops and livelihoods. The Ubangi and Congo rivers                Haram also continued its activities in Far North region,
                burst their banks between October and December,                   triggering around 40,000 new displacements during
                inundating hundreds of villages and triggering as many            the year.
                as 163,000 new displacements in the departments of
                Cuvette, Likouala, Plateaux and Sangha.12                         Despite the scale of displacement and the extent of
                                                                                  people’s needs, Cameroon’s crisis is among the world’s

 A displaced family stand by their tents in the Gossi region of Timbuktu, Mali.
 Photo: NRC/Togo Moise, February 2018

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18
most neglected. Nearly a million people were living in       Boko Haram carried out a series of attacks in the north-

                                                                                                                          PART 1
internal displacement as of the end of the year, including   eastern states of Adamawa, Borno and Yobe during
in the relatively peaceful regions of Adamaoua and           the year, triggering more than 105,000 new displace-
Centre region, which have increasingly become desti-         ments.17 More than 473,000 IDPs were living in camps
nations for IDPs fleeing conflict in other areas of the      without adequate shelter across the three states as of
country.                                                     October, and another 34,000 were living out in the
                                                             open.18 Torrential rains also flooded several displace-
Lack of access also impeded an accurate assessment           ment camps, forcing many IDPs into secondary displace-
of disaster displacement in Cameroon, but in common          ment. Insecurity has impeded humanitarian access and
with other countries in the region it experienced wide-      the response has been further stretched by the mass
spread flooding and landslides in 2019. Around 24,000        arrival of new IDPs, leaving many camps overwhelmed.19
new displacements were recorded, but the figure should
be considered an underestimate. The floods affected          Long-standing ethnic conflict between Fulani pastoral-
displacement camps in the Far North region, forcing          ists and Hausa farmers in north-western Katsina, Sokoto
some IDPs into secondary displacement.                       and Zamfara states triggered new displacements in 2019
                                                             as it took on new dynamics in the form of rural banditry
No figures on internal displacement associated with          and criminal violence. Around 178,000 people were
Boko Haram’s insurgency were available in neigh-             living in internal displacement across the three states
bouring Chad until 2019, when improved monitoring            as of the end of the year.20 Clashes between farmers
mechanisms were put in place in Lac province. These          and herders in the central states have also escalated
revealed around 52,000 new displacements during              in recent years, triggering 53,000 new displacements
the year.15 Clashes between pastoralists and farmers in      in 2019. The figure, however, should be considered
other provinces including Moyen-Chari, Ouaddai and           an underestimate. The growing and shifting patterns
Sila also forced people to flee their homes, bringing        of violence in both areas require better monitoring to
the number of new conflict displacements across the          ascertain the true scale of displacement.21
country as a whole to 58,000.
                                                             As Africa’s most populous country, Nigeria is highly
Around 30,000 new disaster displacements were also           exposed to disasters, particularly floods. It is traversed
recorded. The most significant event was flooding in         by several major rivers that often burst their banks
Salamat province in August. The Logone river and             during the rainy season. Adamawa and Borno states,
Lake Maga burst their banks, which affected not only         which were already affected by conflict, bore the brunt
areas of south-western Chad but also north-eastern           of flooding in 2019 during an exceptionally long rainy
Cameroon.                                                    season. Flooding in the Niger river basin also destroyed
                                                             almost 2,700 homes in Niger state in August and
   West Africa                                               September. Disasters triggered around 157,000 new
                                                             displacements across the country as whole, and were
Long-running conflict and                                    thought to have left about 143,000 people living in
violence persisted across                                    internal displacement as of the end of the year.
Nigeria in 2019. Around
248,000 new conflict and                                     The security situation in Burkina Faso, a relatively
violence displacements were                                  peaceful country in recent years, deteriorated sharply
recorded during the year, and nearly 2.6 million people      in 2019, triggering an unprecedented 513,000 new
were thought to be living in internal displacement as of     displacements (see The Sahel spotlight, p.23).
31 December. The government established the Federal          Jihadist militants, including al-Qaeda affiliates from
Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs, Disaster Management        neighbouring Mali, were quick to exploit the security
and Social Development in August, an important step          vacuum left by the fall of the former president Blaise
intended to improve the coordination and mobilisation        Compaoré in 2014, and a homegrown group known
of resources to prevent and respond to humanitarian          as Ansaroul Islam emerged in late 2016. Initially active
and displacement crises.16                                   in northern Soum region, the militants have spread by
19
        tapping into local grievances in the east and south-          state. Drought is also a major trigger of displacement,
        west.22 They launched near-daily attacks on the security      but robust data is hard to come by. It is also difficult
        forces in 2019, and as the state struggles to protect         to distinguish drought and conflict as triggers, and in
        civilians, a growing number of self-defence militias have     many areas they are interlinked. What is known is that
        emerged, aggravating the situation still further.23           ever more frequent and intense episodes of drought
                                                                      disrupt pastoralists’ livelihoods to the extent that they
        Violence in central Mali has been escalating since early      become unsustainable, forcing many into displacement.
        2018 and continued to do so last year. It has its roots in    Some farmers have no choice but to move seasonally to
        a long-standing crisis in the north, where Tuareg sepa-       urban areas in search of alternative income.30
        ratists and jihadist militants seized swathes of territory
        in 2012 following an attempted coup in Bamako.24 A               East and the
        French-led military intervention pushed the militants            Horn of Africa
        back the following year, but they have since regrouped
        and expanded from the desert north into the country’s         There was a significant
        fertile central regions (see The Sahel spotlight, p.23).      fall in the number of new
                                                                      displacements in Ethiopia,
        The government signed a peace agreement with a                from 2.9 million in 2018 to
        number of militias in 2015, but despite some progress         over a million last year. Many IDPs, however, live in
        in terms of social and economic development, political        insecure areas with little or no access to basic services or
        instability has impeded its implementation. The country       humanitarian assistance, and a significant number have
        has since had four prime ministers, and a series of           been displaced more than once. There were around 1.4
        cabinet reshuffles have undermined continuity.25              million people living in internal displacement as a result
                                                                      of conflict and violence as of the end of the year, also
        Mali is also vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.     considerably fewer than in 2018.
        Increasing variation in rainfall patterns, land degradation
        and erosion have disrupted many people’s livelihoods.         The decreases are the result of a national steering
        About 60 per cent of the population live in rural areas       committee led by the Ministry of Peace approving a
        and rely on rain-fed agriculture. Around 400,000 people       three-phase plan in March to return all IDPs to their
        are thought to be affected by drought each year, and          places of origin in the following months.31 Implemen-
        500,000 by flooding.26 There were 6,600 new disaster          tation began almost immediately, and 1.2 million IDPs
        displacements in 2019, but limited data means the             were thought to have returned by the end of the year.
        figure is conservative.                                       Most displacement sites in Gedeo, West Guji and East
                                                                      and West Wollegas were dismantled.
        In neighbouring Niger, the eastern region of Diffa
        remains highly unstable. Boko Haram and other non-            Not everyone returned voluntarily, however, and many
        state armed groups carried out a series of attacks during     returnees encountered significant obstacles in re-estab-
        the year, including one that triggered more than 18,000       lishing their lives. Many found their homes damaged or
        new displacements in late March and early April.27 The        destroyed or were confronted by other issues in trying
        situation in the western states of Tahoua and Tillaberi is    to reclaim their property and land. Few have access
        also cause for serious concern (see The Sahel spotlight,      to assistance or basic services, and farmers and small
        p.23).28                                                      business owners whose livelihoods have been disrupted
                                                                      have received little support. Insecurity in some return
        The government declared a state of emergency in all           areas has led to a significant number of secondary
        three states in mid-March, and the UN and a number            displacements.32 Some IDPs went into hiding and
        of NGOs suspended their humanitarian operations in            sought to relocate themselves to avoid having to return
        some areas for several weeks in early May.29 Some have        to their areas of origin.33
        been able to resume their work since, but in a climate
        of violence and insecurity.                                   Disasters triggered 504,000 new displacements in 2019.
                                                                      Around 190,000 were recorded during the first rainy
        Extensive flooding triggered 121,000 new displace-            season between April and June, and 177,000 during the
        ments in 2019, mainly in the capital Niamey and Diffa         second in October and November, when the rains were

 GRID
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20

                                                                                                                                           PART 1
     The Horn of Africa experienced above-average rainfall that triggered wides-
     pread flooding. This man and his wife lost their home and shop in Lodwar,
     Turkana county, Kenya. © UNICEF/UNI250645/Chinyenze, December 2019

unusually heavy. Eastern and south-eastern parts of the                       culminated in Ethiopia ratifying the Kampala Convention
country were affected by drought, particularly lowland                        in February 2020.38
pastoralist and agro-pastoralist areas of Somali region,
Oromia region, the Southern Nations, Nationalities,                           Conflict and violence in Somalia triggered 188,000 new
and Peoples’ region (SNNP) and parts of Afar region.34                        displacements in 2019, mainly in the south-east where
The situation is of particular concern in Somali, where                       the al-Shabaab militia, which is affiliated to al-Qaeda,
most of the 131,000 drought displacements recorded                            has its stronghold. More than half were recorded in
in Ethiopia last year took place. More frequent and                           Lower Shabelle region as a result of clashes between
intense episodes of drought had previously affected                           the group and the Somali army supported by African
nearly 56,000 households in the region between 2015                           Union forces. Persistent insecurity in rural areas impeded
and 2017.35                                                                   the provision of humanitarian aid, leading many people
                                                                              to flee to overcrowded camps in urban areas, mainly in
Internal displacement clearly represents a major chal-                        Mogadishu, in search of refuge and assistance.39 Tens
lenge for the country, but there were important policy                        of thousands of IDPs returned home during the year,
developments intended to address the phenomenon                               but many only temporarily to work their land during the
during the year. With support from the UN and the                             sowing and harvest seasons.40
international community, the government launched a
durable solutions initiative in December.36 It provides a                     Disasters triggered 479,000 new displacements. In
framework for the achievement of sustainable solutions                        common with other countries in East Africa, Somalia
to displacement, from the policy and legislative to the                       was affected by widespread flooding in the second half
operational level.                                                            of 2019 during an unusually wet rainy season influenced
                                                                              by El Niño. About a quarter of the displacements took
The initiative acknowledges that internal displacement                        place in Belet Weyn city in Hiraan state.41 Other regions
is a development priority that needs to be addressed                          were affected by drought, which triggered around
through coordinated planning and action across                                60,000 new displacements.
sectors.37 Given its recent launch, 2020 will begin to
reveal the extent to which putting it into practice enables                   Internal displacement is fuelling Somalia’s rapid urban-
safe, voluntary and dignified returns. The government                         isation, as people who struggle to survive and make a
also organised a series of national consultations that                        living in rural areas seek opportunities in urban areas.42
21

                                                                                          Communities affected by Cyclone Idai
                                                                                          test out the first drops of water from
                                                                                          a new water point installed by the
                                                                                          Spanish Red Cross. The cyclone has
                                                                                          left many people in Mozambique at
                                                                                          risk of disease.
                                                                                          Photo : IFRC/Corrie Butler, May 2019

        Many, however, establish themselves in informal settle-     sands of vulnerable people along the White Nile basin,
        ments where they are at high risk of eviction. More         in many cases forcing IDPs who had already fled conflict
        than 264,000 people, most of them IDPs, were evicted        into secondary displacement (see White Nile basin spot-
        during the year, making forced evictions one of the         light, p.27).
        main triggers of secondary displacement in the country.
                                                                    The most affected country along the basin was South
        In response to the new and protracted displacement          Sudan, where the floods were described as the worst
        across the country, the government launched a durable       in the country’s history.46 They triggered 98 per cent
        solutions initiative (DSI) with UN support in 2016.43 In    of the 294,000 new disaster displacements recorded
        2019 it established an inter-ministerial durable solu-      in 2019, and left around 246,000 people still living in
        tions secretariat, ratified the Kampala Convention and      displacement as of the end of the year.
        approved a national policy on IDPs and returning refu-
        gees.44 Somalia’s DSI has been a significant catalyst for   The signing of a revitalised peace agreement between
        these and other developments, leading the government        the government and a number of armed groups in
        to fully own the country’s response to internal displace-   September 2018 has led to a reduction in conflict and
        ment, and providing an example for others to follow.        violence.47 The number of associated new displacements
                                                                    also fell from 321,000 in 2018 to 259,000 in 2019,
        Unprecedented flooding in the East Africa, particularly     but there were still 1.4 million people living in internal
        Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia, not only triggered wide-       displacement as of the end of the year. Implementa-
        spread displacement but also established conditions         tion of the agreement has been slow and there was
        for a locust infestation that caused damage across the      an increase in violence and displacement in the second
        region. This further eroded people’s livelihoods and        half of 2019, but the formation of a unity government
        negatively affected food security.45 Away from the          in February 2020 has rekindled hopes of lasting peace.48
        headlines, the floods also displaced hundreds of thou-

 GRID
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22
The tense political situation in Sudan aggravated ethnic     in 2018 and six in 2017.53 Around 5,300 new displace-

                                                                                                                          PART 1
and intercommunal disputes over scarce resources during      ments were recorded, but the figure should be consid-
the year. Clashes in East and Central Darfur and White       ered an underestimate given the difficulties in gathering
Nile state triggered nearly 10,000 new displacements         data on highly localised incidents of violence. Many
in May and June. Violence between Massalit and Arab          people fled to neighbouring provinces or across the
communities in West Darfur in the last two weeks of          border into Tanzania. Others sought shelter on islands
December also triggered more than 46,000. There were         off the coast of Cabo Delgado.54 Violence and displace-
84,000 new conflict displacements recorded across the        ment increased around the time of elections in October,
country as a whole, and more than 2.1 million people         and some IDPs were unable to vote in their registered
living in internal displacement as of the end of the year.   polling stations.55

The number of disaster displacements in 2019 was             Kenneth also hit Comoros hard, destroying about
among the highest recorded for Sudan, and the vast           4,600 homes and affecting people who were already
majority were triggered by flooding in White Nile state.49   poor and vulnerable, mostly on the island of Grand
The floods also led to a cholera outbreak in Blue Nile,      Comore. Around 19,000 disaster displacements were
Gezira, Khartoum and Sennar states (see White Nile           recorded during the year. The situation on Comoros
basin spotlight, p.27).50                                    received little media attention, but damages and losses
                                                             were put at $185 million, and recovery and reconstruc-
Disasters triggered 130,000 new displacements in             tion costs could be as high as $277 million.56
Uganda in 2019, mainly in Bukedi, Sironko and Teso
regions, and 74,000 in Kenya. The latter figure includes     Idai struck Malawi before it strengthened into a trop-
10,000 recorded in West Pokot county, which was hit by       ical cyclone, but it still triggered around 110,000 new
landslides in November. The two countries also recorded      displacements in Southern region. After later wreaking
2,300 and 1,800 displacements respectively triggered         chaos in Mozambique it also triggered 51,000 in
by localised intercommunal violence.                         Zimbabwe, mainly in the rural districts of Chimanimani
                                                             and Chipinge in Manicaland province. Extensive crop
The small landlocked countries of Burundi and Rwanda         losses aggravated an already fragile food security situa-
experienced significant disaster displacement. Storms,       tion in the area after an extended period of drought.57 It
heavy rains and landslides triggered 25,000 new              was not possible to obtain drought displacement figures
displacements in Burundi, which peaked in November           either for Zimbabwe or the wider region, which has
and December. About 6,000 people were evacu-                 been suffering episodes of severe drought for the last
ated pre-emptively from high-risk areas of Rwanda in         five years. However, evidence shows that its impacts
December to escape the onset of heavy rains.51               have been widespread, and that they are playing a role
                                                             in heightening people’s vulnerabilities.58
   Southern Africa

Mozambique bore the
brunt of two unusually
powerful storms in 2019
that triggered hundreds of
thousands of new displace-
ments, and left around 132,000 people still displaced
as of the end of the year. The impacts of cyclones Idai
and Kenneth were also felt in Comoros, Malawi and
Zimbabwe (see Mozambique spotlight, p.25).52

Kenneth triggered around 24,000 new displacements
in Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado province, where its
impacts were aggravated by an escalating conflict
between government forces and jihadist militias. There
were more than 160 attacks in 2019, compared with 60
23

        SPOTLIGHT                                                     Insecurity has also spread to eastern and southern
                                                                      regions of neighbouring Niger and Burkina Faso, where

        THE SAHEL                                                     different armed groups are using similar methods to
                                                                      recruit and expand. The situation in Niger is of particular
                                                                      concern because the country sits at a dangerous cross-
        A deepening crisis of regional                                road of violence, surrounded on all sides by countries
                                                                      facing security crises. The eastern region of Diffa has
        dimensions                                                    suffered the effects of Boko Haram’s insurgency for a
                                                                      decade, and the government has also been forced to
        The Sahel region of sub-Saharan Africa suffered a sharp       step up military activity and protection efforts in the
        increase in violence and mass displacement in 2019. A         western regions of Tillaberi and Tahoua in response to
        number of jihadist groups have become increasingly            escalating violence and displacement, particularly over
        active in border areas between Burkina Faso, Mali             the last two years.63
        and Niger, commonly known as the Liptako Gourma
        region, carrying out attacks, stoking communal and            There are worrying signs that the dynamics of these two
        ethnic violence, and raising concerns about a major and       separate conflict hotspots are becoming more inter-
        escalating security challenge with regional implications.     twined, and that Niger may form a potential bridge
        Boko Haram’s insurgency and military offensives against       between them.64 There were 57,000 new internal
        the group have also continued to force people to flee         displacements, due to conflict and violence, recorded
        their homes in the Lake Chad basin.59 Around 854,000          in the country last year, of which 26,000 were in Tilla-
        new internal displacements were recorded across the           beri and Tahoua.
        three countries in 2019.
                                                                      It is Burkina Faso, however, which faces the most
        The jihadist groups, which are local but globally oriented,   alarming security situation.65 Violence spread from
        have spent years exploiting local grievances, laying the      northern to eastern regions of the country in 2019, trig-
        ground for armed insurgencies to emerge and expand.           gering 513,000 new displacements, a ten-fold increase
        Some of the disputes involve access to land and water,        on the figure from 2018. Around 560,000 people were
        but many attacks are part of efforts to root out individ-     living in internal displacement as of the end of the year.
        uals linked to one extremist group or another, or to take     Communities have been generous in hosting displaced
        revenge for previous violence. The militants have also        people, but the country’s infrastructure is poor, the
        taken advantage of porous borders and the absence of          government has struggled to respond to IDPs’ largely
        government forces. They have forcibly recruited people,       unmet needs and the international community has paid
        laid siege to villages, burned homes, destroyed the liveli-   little attention to the crisis.66
        hoods of whole communities and perpetrated severe
        human rights violations.60                                    Access to health services and education has deterio-
                                                                      rated, and IDPs are in urgent need of protection. There
        The security situation in Mali has been deteriorating         are more than twice as many displaced women as men,
        since 2013.61 Islamist militants have regrouped in the        and many have been subjected to abuse and sexual
        desert north and expanded into the fertile centre of the      violence. There are particular concerns about the protec-
        country. They have gained ground by recruiting from           tion of women in hard-to-reach areas where violence
        the Fulani community, nomadic herders left behind by          goes unchecked.67
        government and development programmes that favour
        agriculture. Long-standing grievances between Dogon           The presence and influence of armed groups is growing
        farmers and Fulani herders over land and resources have       in all three countries, and their shifting activities and the
        also increased considerably.62 More than 290,000 new          complex dynamics of the situation make it difficult for
        internal displacements were recorded in 2019, most            individual governments to rein in the insurgents. Military
        of them triggered by escalating communal violence             efforts to do so have also triggered significant displace-
        in Mopti and Gao. The two regions currently host the          ment. New initiatives intended to respond more effec-
        largest numbers of IDPs, of whom there were 208,000           tively to the crisis have emerged, including the creation
        across the country as a whole as of the end of the year.      in 2017 of the Joint Force of the Group of Five of the

 GRID
 2020
24

Sahel (G5 Sahel) to fight jihadist violence and insecurity
in the region with UN and African Union support.68
Many challenges remain, however, and meanwhile there
is a growing sense of fear among local communities,
including those who have been displaced, prompted by
the realisation that living in a conflict zone is becoming
the new normal.69

There is also increasing concern that the violence and
insecurity will spread further south to countries such as
Benin, Ghana and Togo. Attacks by Fulani militias trig-
gered new displacements in Benin’s northern Atacora
region in 2019. Further west, a land dispute between
Gangan and Tchokossi communities in northern Togo
triggered as many as 2,000 new displacements in late
June, and intercommunal violence and clashes forced
people to flee their homes in northern Ghana between
January and May.

If violence continues to spread into previously calm coun-
tries, much more displacement is only to be expected.
More efforts to address the main triggers and drivers
of conflict across the Sahel are required if the current
situation is to be prevented from spiralling into a new
regional crisis.
25
                                                                    ments than Idai, but it was the most powerful cyclone
        SPOTLIGHT                                                   to hit Africa since records began with gusts of up to
                                                                    220 km/h.75 An ongoing conflict in Cabo Delgado,

        MOZAMBIQUE                                                  where several Islamic militias have been attacking and
                                                                    displacing people since 2017, added to the challenges
                                                                    brought on by the disaster. The conflict slowed down
        The long-term impacts of                                    the delivery of aid to those affected and is a significant
                                                                    barrier to recovery and reconstruction efforts.76
        cyclones Idai and Kenneth
                                                                    A number of factors combined to make Idai and
        After an extended drought that halved agricultural          Kenneth among the most devastating disasters the
        production and caused widespread food insecurity,           region has experienced. International meteorological
        two powerful tropical storms wreaked havoc across           services projected the intensity and path of both storms
        southern Africa in 2019. Cyclones Idai and Kenneth          and national authorities declared them emergencies,
        were unprecedented in the region, and triggered             but local early warning systems proved ineffective. Few
        640,000 and 45,000 displacements respectively.              people evacuated from high-risk areas before either
        Countries including Comoros, Madagascar, Malawi and         made landfall.77 Even after the wrath of Idai, there was
        Zimbabwe were hard hit, but it was Mozambique that          little evidence of displacement being pre-emptive as
        suffered the worst of the damage and where most of          Kenneth approached. Most people moved during or
        the displacement was recorded.70                            after the storm, once their homes had been damaged
                                                                    or destroyed.78
        First to strike was Idai, which as a tropical depression
        caused severe flooding and forced tens of thousands         Both storms also struck places where people were
        of people to flee in northern Mozambique and Malawi         already living in vulnerable conditions. Poor communi-
        in early March. It then moved out to sea, where it          ties in urban areas such as Beira were disproportionately
        developed into an intense tropical cyclone equivalent       affected and had little capacity to recover and rebuild.79
        to a category two hurricane.71 Idai then skirted the        Millions of people in rural areas were already facing food
        west coast of Madagascar before moving back toward          insecurity as a result of drought, and the storms only
        Mozambique, where it made landfall on 15 March near         served to aggravate the situation. Harvests and seed
        the coastal city of Beira, home to 500,000 people.          stocks were decimated, leaving many farmers unable
        About 90 per cent of the city was damaged, and much         to sustain their livelihoods. Across the regions affected
        of it destroyed. Most of the people displaced were          most people rely on agriculture for a living.80 Around
        from poor and vulnerable communities living in informal     67,500 children were facing malnutrition in the country
        settlements ill-equipped to withstand the ravages of        as of the end of the year, and 2.5 million people - or 10
        the storm.72                                                per cent of the country’s population - were in need of
                                                                    humanitarian assistance.81
        As it moved inland, Idai cut across the central provinces
        of Manica, Sofala, Tete and Zambezia and then neigh-        As the emergency phase of the response to Idai and
        bouring Zimbabwe, damaging crops and displacing             Kenneth receded, new challenges emerged, including
        whole rural communities.73 The storm triggered around       the resettlement of IDPs in areas at less risk from future
        478,000 displacements in Mozambique and left millions       disasters. With support from international organisa-
        in need of humanitarian assistance. More than 93,500        tions, the government designated areas it deemed suit-
        people were still displaced in 71 resettlement sites in     able for habitation. About 89,000 people in Manica,
        the four central provinces as of the end of the year.74     Tete and Zambezia provinces were resettled in new
                                                                    sites and allocated plots of land on which to build new
        Cyclone Kenneth, the equivalent of a category four          homes and farms.82
        hurricane, struck just over a month after Idai, between
        23 and 29 April. It developed in the Indian Ocean and       Many of the plots, however, have proved unsuitable for
        hit Comoros and Mayotte before making landfall in           agriculture, leaving many still dependent on food aid.83
        the province of Cabo Delgado in northern Mozam-             Many of the resettlement sites were also affected when
        bique. Kenneth triggered significantly fewer displace-      the rainy season arrived toward the end of the year.

 GRID
 2020
26
Downpours destroyed hundreds of tents and emer-             Cyclones Idai and Kenneth show that the impacts of
gency shelters, triggering more than 2,800 secondary        climate change and variability are most acutely felt by
displacements between December 2019 and January             people who are already vulnerable, highly exposed
2020.84 This trend continued during the first months        and unprepared to respond. Disaster risk reduction
of 2020.                                                    measures, including better early warning systems and
                                                            contingency plans, and the building of climate-resilient
Basic humanitarian needs such as food, water and            infrastructure, are vital if the risk of future displacement
shelter were still unmet across Mozambique several          is to be reduced.
months after the disasters. Only 11 per cent of people
surveyed in resettlement sites said they planned to live    Significant numbers of people are also still living in
there permanently, and most cited precarious living         displacement as a result of the two storms, and it is
conditions, a lack of livelihood opportunities and poor     clear that humanitarian assistance alone will not address
access to basic services as the main reasons. Displaced     the challenges they face. Mozambique’s government
children and young people, who make up the majority         and international organisations are planning for the
of those in resettlement sites, also struggled to restart   kind of long-term investment needed for reconstruction
their education.85                                          and the pursuit of durable solutions.86 Whether these
                                                            efforts bear fruit remains to be seen and will depend
                                                            on sustained commitment at all levels.
27

        SPOTLIGHT

        WHITE NILE
        BASIN
        Chronic impacts, cyclical
        displacement

        Floods triggered 73 per cent of the 3.4 million new
        displacements associated with disasters across sub-Sa-
        haran Africa in 2019. Ethiopia, Somalia and Mozam-
        bique recorded some of the highest figures. Relative to
        population size, however, the situation in several areas
        of the White Nile river basin was cause for particular
        concern. This includes parts of Uganda, South Sudan,
        the contested Abyei Area and Sudan, where the people
        affected were already highly vulnerable in social and
        economic terms.

        Heavy rains caused the White Nile and its tributaries
        to burst their banks several times during the year, trig-
        gering a combined total of more than 700,000 new
        displacements. Some people already displaced by
        conflict and violence were forced to flee again by the
        floods, which made few media headlines and attracted
        little international attention despite their widespread
        impacts.

        The White Nile basin is 3,700 kilometres long and           areas also contribute to making the White Nile basin
        covers about 1.8 million square kilometres. Different       a displacement risk hotspot.89 Last year’s floods were
        rainy seasons take place along the territories it cuts      not a single disaster, but rather several events of varying
        through, and floods are not uncommon. The river flows       intensity that had different impacts on communities
        from the Ugandan highlands to the vast floodplains          along the basin.
        of South Sudan, which are home to one of Africa’s
        largest wetlands, known as the Sudd. Its ecosystem          Upstream in Uganda, rainy season downpours led to
        supports farming and pastoral cultures and major wild-      localised floods and landslides, triggering 130,000
        life migrations.87                                          displacements. Government regulations seek to avert
                                                                    the construction of housing in high-risk areas and there
        A complex combination of social, economic and polit-        are plans to relocate populations, but people have
        ical pressures are at play in this vulnerable sub-region.   continued to establish themselves in informal settle-
        The river basin has been subject to decades of signifi-     ments on steep slopes where the risk of landslides is
        cant transformation, including for the irrigation of ever   high. When the rains came, thousands were forced to
        greater expanses of cultivated land, the construction of    flee as a result.90
        hydropower dams and urban expansion, all of which
        have increased the risk of disasters.88 Ongoing conflict,   Floods triggered 289,000 displacements in South Sudan,
        weak governance and political instability in different      many involving people already internally displaced by

 GRID
 2020
28
conflict and Sudanese refugees who were sheltering in        without social or family networks struggled to find
at-risk areas and who became displaced for a second          shelter, and some families were reported as having to
time.91 Local communities were also forced to flee, crops    sleep in the open air. Both IDPs and refugees from South
were damaged and livestock lost. This aggravated food        Sudan were among those displaced. Food insecurity
insecurity in areas where malnutrition levels were already   also increased.102
high.92 The floods contaminated the majority of water
sources, increasing the risk of water-borne diseases         The disaster took place on top of a major political transi-
such as cholera.93 Submerged roads also delayed the          tion. The country’s president of three decades, Omar
provision of humanitarian aid significantly.94               al-Bashir, was deposed in April following months of
                                                             protests over an economic crisis. A transitional govern-
South Sudan’s Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs and           ment was finally put in place in August, at the height of
Disaster Management put a two-year strategic plan in         the flooding, which slowed down the coordination of
place in 2018 that acknowledged the need to address          response efforts.103 Sudan’s Humanitarian Aid Commis-
the challenges brought on by the combination of              sion activated the country’s flood steering committee
disasters and conflict.95 The events of 2019, however,       and task force, but they were unable to cope with the
revealed the continuing limitations in efforts to prevent    situation and UN and civil society organisations had to
and respond to disasters in areas affected by conflict.      provide support for those affected.104
They also raised concerns about the extent to which
humanitarian crises put the brakes on recent peace-          The displacement triggered along the White Nile basin
building and recovery gains.96                               in 2019 shows that disasters can have devastating
                                                             outcomes when they hit vulnerable communities in
Further north in the contested Abyei Area, unprece-          politically fragile countries where unsustainable devel-
dented rains and floods destroyed at least 5,000 homes       opment practices, environmental change and weak
and triggered more than 40,000 new displacements,            governance heighten disaster displacement risk. When
accounting for about a third of the population.97 Abyei      conflict and insecurity are also factors, impacts can
is also home to 31,000 people living in protracted           become chronic and cyclical, as seen with IDPs and refu-
displacement as result of conflict. Many have been           gees forced to flee for a second or third time. Ongoing
doing so for years, and some for decades. The majority       peacebuilding efforts will have to be reinforced and
were staying in temporary shelters unable to withstand       sustainable development planning and disaster risk
months of heavy downpours and strong winds, and              reduction supported across the basin to avert what for
many IDPs were forced into secondary displacement            many has become a downward spiral of vulnerability
as a result. People who had previously fled conflict in      and displacement risk.
South Sudan were also displaced for a second, and in
some cases a third time.98

The floods destroyed roads, bridges and other public
infrastructure. They also severely damaged farmland,
reducing agricultural production. With access routes
cut, many communities were isolated for extended
periods and local markets were also affected. Fewer
than ten per cent of displaced households had livestock
or food stocks, meaning the majority had to restrict
themselves to one meal a day.99 The lack of adequate
shelter and access to livelihoods and the ongoing risk of
further displacement only served to aggravate people’s
already precarious living conditions.100

Flooding in Sudan triggered 272,000 new displace-
ments, most of which were recorded in White Nile state
over the period of a few weeks. More than 16,500
homes were destroyed across the state.101 Some people
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