Item: Components 1.2 Modelling, Decision Support Tools (DST) and Simulation Exercises
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Item: Components 1.2
Modelling, Decision Support Tools (DST) and
Simulation Exercises
Component 1.2 Modelling, Decision Support Tools
(DST) and Simulation Exercises
• ‘New’ component, previously with Component 1.1
•Workplan developed by Caroline Dube and presented to
ExCom in July 2014
• New project team formed following Caroline’s resignation:
• Supervisor: F. Rosso, (K. Sumption – interim modeling)
• Component manager: E. Calduch Negro (M. Mclaws –
interim modeling)
•Budget 61,900 Euro (consultancies plus travel)
ExCom87
Contingency Plan Development
Contingency Plan
Decision Support Tools
(DST)
Economic assessments Simulation exercises
Consultation
Modelling tools
Component 1.2 Modelling, Decision Support Tools
(DST) and Simulation Exercises
Objective :to improve the ability of Member States and Europe as a
whole to respond to a foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) incursion by using
modelling and decision-support tools as well as simulation exercises to
develop and test their FMD contingency plans and outbreak response.
OUTPUTS (EXPECTED RESULTS):
3 1. A European modelling network composed of policy makers and model
22% 1 users from all interested MS with direct access to FMD models and model
39% developers linked to other international modelling groups.
2. Resources for training on disease modelling and economic analysis in
decision-making and simulation exercise design
2
39% 3. A network of managers in contingency planning and simulation
exercise design.
Output 1. European modelling network
• Discussion paper drafted – circulate to focus group
•Initial meeting at EuFMD Open Session (30 October)
• Network objectives to be endorsed. Draft:
1. Promote use of models to inform contingency planning
for FMD in Europe (ie applied research) through
enhanced understanding
a) amongst current users (through external validation of models)
as well as non-users
2. Forum for discussion and technical support
3. Identification of decision support tools expected to
provide the most value to decision makers.
• Support their development (through EuFMD-FAR &/or network
ExCom88Output 1. European modelling network
Initial activities proposed:
1. Description of currently available resources: models and
expertise
2. Webinar/seminar series- network members to describe
current research
3. Develop a common project (subject to interest & support)
• European disease spread model (cross-border spread)
• Modeling framework(s) that can be readily adapted to different
countries
• Studies to identify key national-level parameters (ie what specific
national-level data is really essential for model input?)
• Studies to explore optimal control measures for ‘typical’ European
countries, ie representative of different husbandry systems etc
• Model comparison studies to validate existing modelsOutput 2. Resources for training: modelling, and simulation exercise design • E-learning on epidemiological modeling has been developed • Modeling workshop on the use of epidemiological modelling and socio-economic analysis in FMD contingency planning (held 29 Sept-3 Oct 2014)
Output 2. Resources for training: modelling, and
simulation exercise design
Future ideas and plans:
1. Development of Guidelines:
• For testing Contingency Plans (ie simulation
exercises)
2. Review of resources available for simulation exercises
and development of a website for access to these.
3. Accessible and easy-to-use tools / calculators:
• to assess the socio-economic impact of FMD
emergencies.
• to calculate resources required to control an
outbreak (ie, number of vets, slaughter capacity,
vaccine doses…)Output 3 A network of managers in contingency planning
and simulation exercise design.
• To link persons facing similar challenges throughout EuFMD
member states and work together find solutions
• Through internet (website, webinar, email), meetings...
• Sharing technical resources, ideas and solutions
• First step is to identify interested members, then
identify wants and needs to assist their work.
• Modeling workshop, FVO Meeting, existing reports, EuFMD training
focal points
• Discussion at modeling workshop:
• 17 participants from 11 countries
• Network already formed through FVO? (will work with
FVO to identify where EuFMD can best provide
support)Output 3 A network of managers in contingency planning and simulation exercise design. • Q 13 Modeling workshop feedback form: How can we help you more after the course has finished?
CP Issues: from discussion at modeling workshop Oct 2014
Issue Solution
Shortage of resources
within Veterinary Services An accessible and easy-to-use tool to assess
for emergency the socio-economic impact of FMD
preparedness emergencies could be developed to help to
• caused by lack of raise awareness.
awareness of importance
•Raise awareness about importance of testing
• Development of Guidelines for testing CP
Contingency plans drafted
(simulation exercise and other)
but not tested
• include best practices such as
• or not all aspects tested:
stakeholder involvement, include
•Stakeholders
neighbouring countries, involvement of
•Neighbouring
national and local levels
countries
• Tool to calculate resources required (ie.
•Local levels
number of vets, slaughter capacity, vaccine
• resources required
doses…)Planned Program
PROGRESS UPDATE AND REVISED PROGRAM (88TH Session, October Planning Implementation
2014) 2014 2015 Comments
Activity Events J J A S O N D J F M A M J
1.1 Establish focus group with regular meetings (VC in some cases) in ongoing
preparation for workshops, Open Session and discussion paper.
9 . . . . . . . . .
1.2 Review of available models in MS and internationally and discussion paper ongoing
on the need for an EU-level model or other steps forward needed.
2 . . . . . . . . . .
1.3 Oversight of EuFMD funded modelling projects to ensure in-line with ongoing
modelling program.
Ongoing . . . . . . . .
1.4 Workshop 2 on the development of the European modelling network. 1 . To be confirmed
2.1 Review of resources available in MS for simulation exercise design and
Online
development of a website for access to documentation and processes for
resource . .
exercise development.
2.2 Resources for training on disease modeling Ongoing . . . .
2.3. Development of Guidelines on validity testing CPs/simulation exercises
Document . . . . .
2.4. Development of an online accessible and easy-to-use tool /
Online
calculator/model to assess the socio-economic impact of FMD emergencies to
resource . . . . .
assist in raising awareness on the importance of contingency planning.
3.1 Survey of needs of managers in contingency planning in MS for: exercise
design, evaluation of emergency plans and economics in decision-making.
1 . .
To be discussed on the
3.2 Establish network of managers in contingency planning Ongoing . . . . . . . . . th
16 Oct.(Grange)
3.3 Develop a repository of information related to simulation exercise Online
development for use by MS. resource . .Thank You
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