JANUARY 2019 - From us to you: Southern Oregon Business Journal
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
JANUARY 2019
From us to you:
“Many successes, brave dreams,
wise decisions, satisfaction, peace
and prosperity for the entire coming year.”
Goodbye 2018
Wasn’t that an amazing ride? 2018 will be remembered around the world for all that happened and didn’t
happen in the United States in that year. I feel the need to take a nap.
And I would, except the ride may not be over – probably isn’t over.
Social media has exposed our communication weaknesses. From the bottom to the top, we need to learn
how to talk to one another. Or, to write in a way that leaves no doubt about our message; and to read a
message with the intent to understand it without rewriting it in our heads before we finish reading.
Confusing messages from those who neither know how to spell the words they’re using or the definitions of
them places doubt about items delivered by those who truly share important information.
Perhaps 2018 was a learning year, at least I hope so.
Trade, tariffs and taxes were themes all too confusing for the common citizen and often challenged by
equally capable leaders. A drop of decency in our communication styles would undoubtably improve the
understanding of what we are trying to say, whether the information is critical to survival or just a passing
thought.
The world needs us, and we need the world. Technology has brought us closer as citizens of the world than
we could have imagined at the turn of this century. Cybersecurity is not science fiction. Every world leader
must be able to communicate with empathy with one another’s needs, values and goals. Families and
nations have been divided over menial misunderstandings. It’s time we brought humanness to the table
when we meet to discuss how we will share the world and its resources.
Let’s make kindness a 2019 resolution.
Greg
The Southern Oregon Business Journal extends sincere thanks to the following
companies for their continued presence as important cogs in the wheels of industry in
southern Oregon.
Southern Oregon Business Journal 2
A JOURNAL FOR THE ECONOMICALLY
CURIOUS, PROFESSIONALLY INSPIRED AND
ACUTELY MOTIVATED
Contents
Inside This Issue FEATURED
14. Project of the Year
2. Goodbye 2018
4. Economic Outlook on the QT 15. CROOKED RIVER WETLANDS
8. Engagement, Collaboration, and 17. Prineville – In the Center of It All
Productivity
31. Making Video a Reality
10. Ranking Restaurants
12. Cascade Health Alliance 35. Winning is the Absence of Losing
Invests in Children
13.
20. Douglas County Employment Base
22. National Business - Local Balance
24. Tim Duy - Fed Watch
28. Peace Health Heartfelt House
30. Oregon Equal Pay Act Happy New Year
34. Port of Coos Bay $20 Million Grant
38. Oregon Economic Indicators
703 Divot Loop
Sutherlin, Oregon 97479
www.southernoregonbusiness.com
COVER PHOTO
541-315-6127 Clipart Image
Southern Oregon Business Journal 3
Economic Outlook: On the QT …
But QT may not be so quiet this time
Commentary by Robert Whelan, ECONorthwest
DECEMBER 2018
“On the QT,” a quintessentially American phrase. It means to keep something confidential. Basically, QT is
an abbreviation for “quiet.” But there is a new meaning and you will be hearing it more and more in the
coming months. This time it will mean anything but quiet. The new definition? ‘Quantitative tightening’.
QT is the opposite of quantitative easing (QE). You may recall that in December 2008 we were a year into
a deep recession. The Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) had slashed the discount rate (the short-term interest
rate it controls) to 0.5 percent. But the economy, especially housing, kept weakening. Foreclosures were
happening right and left. The problem was that long-term interest rates, which the Fed doesn’t directly
control, stayed persistently high. The rate on a 30-year mortgage then was 5.5 percent. They chose to do
something radical. An experiment called QE.
Figure 1: Interest Rates After the Start of the Last Recession
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
7
8
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
v-0
v-0
v-0
v-1
v-1
v-1
v-1
v-1
v-1
v-1
v-1
v-1
No
No
No
No
No
No
No
No
No
No
No
No
Discount Rate 30-Year Mortgage Rate
Under QE, the Fed bought bonds and mortgage backed securities by essentially printing new money. The
goal was to drive down long-term interest rates so to compel investors to buy riskier investments. That
would lift stock market and housing prices, which, in turn would increase the wealth of consumers.
It worked. Long-term rates fell. The 30-year mortgages fell to 3.3 percent in just four years. People
Southern Oregon Business Journal 4
refinanced, and others were able to stave off foreclosure, tamping down panic selling. QE kept the
foreclosure crisis from getting worse. It also pushed up other asset prices such as land, stocks, and even
artwork. Corporations too were able to borrow cheaply. And borrow they did.
The Fed didn’t stop after four years. When they tried to the economy would falter. Ten years into QE the
Fed’s holdings of bonds and mortgage-backed securities went from $882 billion to nearly $4.5 trillion — a
five-fold increase well in excess for the economy’s size. QT is a way of taking the excess out.
Figure 2: Total Assets of the Fed After the Start of the Recession
$5,000
$4,500
$4,000
$3,500
$3,000
$2,500
$2,000
$1,500
$1,000
$500
$0
7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
v-0 v-0 v-0 v-1 v-1 v-1 v-1 v-1 v-1 v-1 v-1 v-1
N o N o N o N o N o N o N o N o N o N o N o N o
1. Bhar, A.G. Malliaris, and M. Malliaris. “Quantitative Easing and the U.S. Stock Market: A Decision Tress Analysis.” Review of
Economic Analysis. July 2015. Pp. 135-156.
2. S. Gabriel and C. Lutz. “The Impact of Unconventional Monetary Policy on Real Estate Markets.” Federal Reserve Bank of San
Francisco. November 10, 2017.
3. C Fried. “Quantitative Easing Kept the Foreclosure Crisis from Being Even Worse.” UCLS Anderson Review. July 25, 2018.
4. Williamson, Steven. “Quantitative Easing: How Well Does This Tool Work?” Regional Economist. Third quarter 2017. Federal
Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
5. M. Cosgrove. “The Fed seems determined to snuff out economic progress.” The Hill. October 19, 2018.
Southern Oregon Business Journal 5
Today the economy is running hot with rising inflation, excess speculation, and high-risk companies issuing
junk bonds with abandon. And so begins the slow process of the Fed trying to get things back to normal.
They’ve started the second half of their economic experiment: QT. Rather than buy new bonds with money
they got when old bonds in the Fed portfolio matured, they are simply withdrawing money out of the
economy. They will drain about $600 billion dollars out over the year. Other central banks in the world are
following.
How will this pan-out? Nobody really knows. But long-term rates are already rising and are likely
to continue rising. That would hurt real estate prices among other investment asset prices. As reported
recently in The Economist, high housing prices have less to do with supply shortages and more to do with
financial markets where QE pushed rates down. Then there is excess corporate debt, which is now near
record highs and vulnerable to rising rates.
The risks are great. The Fed admits as much saying, “elevated valuation pressures imply a greater
possibility of outsized drops in assets prices.” “Excessive borrowing by businesses and households leaves
them vulnerable to distress if their incomes decline or the assets they own fall in value.” And, “financial
institutions will not have the ability to absorb even modest losses when hit with adverse shocks.”
Some believe the Fed is underestimating the risks. Benn Steil and Benjamin Della Rocca of the Council
of Foreign Relations were quoted in Barron’s saying that QT has already added 17 basis points to the
benchmark 10-year Treasury bond and that “Monetary policy will start to contract economic growth early
next year.” A year ago, I forecast a possible recession by the end of 2019.
There are counter arguments. This is economics after all. It’s possible to slow the pace of tightening. That
would take pressure off the economy and let consumer and business spending grow a bit faster. But if Fed
cuts back tightening too much, inflation will worsen and that comes with a whole set of new problems.
6. “There is more to high housing prices than constrained supply.” The Economist. November 24, 2018. P. 65.
7. “C. Torres and A. Tanzi. Corporate America’s debt boom looks like a bust for the economy.” Bloomberg.
November 18, 2018.
8. “Financial Stability Report.” Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. November 2018. Pp. 3.
9. R. Forsyth. “Will the Fed Back Down?” Barron’s. November 26, 2018. P. 5.
10. R. Whelan. “Running out of fuel.” Economic Outlook. September 2017.
Even the Fed says this won’t be easy, calling the process “threading the needle.” We will know in the
fullness of time if QT will indeed be quiet or be something much more disquieting. In the meantime, it may
be wise for all of us to be prudent and avoid taking big risks with our money and savings.
Robert Whelan
Director
ECONorthwest
222 SW Columbia, Suite 1600, Portland, OR 97201
Southern Oregon Business Journal 6
Southern Oregon Business Journal 7
Break Down Workplace Silos to Build
Engagement, Collaboration, and Productivity
By Refresh Leadership in Workplace
Does your workplace have a silo culture? where mistakes, miscommunication, or conflict most
It’s a common phenomenon that can affect any commonly occur.
business, but is especially prevalent in larger
companies with many different departments and more Although there are many ways workplace silos can
employees. manifest, some common areas include:
Silos typically form in workplaces when communica- • Within teams where individuals tend to separate
tion between different people, teams, or departments themselves from the group or one person takes on
consistently fails. When this type of workplace culture the majority of the work.
is left unchecked, creativity, productivity, and
innovation often take the hit.
• Between teams in the same department that are
working toward the same overall goals, but aren’t
In a Stanford University study on collaboration
collaborating to ensure their projects and tasks
(as reported by Forbes), researchers found that
complement and support each other.
participants who work in a collaborative group stayed
engaged in their task 64% longer than participants
who work individually. • Between departments where the lines of
communication get crossed due to factors like
So, it’s in a business’ best interest to take a proactive different work functions within the company or
approach to breaking down silos before they become incompatible leadership.
engrained within the company culture and start to
impact success. • Between senior leadership and employees lower
on the corporate hierarchy due to perceptions
Identify where silos exist about rank or seniority.
The first step in breaking down workplace silos is to
pinpoint where they exist. In many cases, simply Put it in perspective
having an open and honest discussion with your A key component to breaking down silos is communi-
cation. In a busy work environment, it’s easy
team will help identify areas for improvement. It’s also for people to get so focused on completing their own
important to take note during the course of projects tasks that they forget to think about how their work
Southern Oregon Business Journal 8
impacts the bigger picture, which can impact the
success of other teams or departments. Clear
communication and consistently reinforcing a unifying
vision is important to ensuring everyone understands
how their part connects to the whole.
Creating regular opportunities for individual teams
to discuss what they’re working on in an open
environment allows for back and forth communication
about how they can support each other’s goals.
A monthly staff meeting, for example, is a great
time to have a discussion about current projects.
Alternatively, many companies invest in meeting
software, cloud-based services, or a variety of other
work management solutions that centralize project
information and help facilitate better collaboration
between teams.
Foster a change in mindset
In addition to increasing communication, fostering
a change in the way teams approach projects from
the very beginning will help set the stage for better
collaboration. During the planning stages of every new
project, encourage your teams to ask questions that
help further develop a broader scope of how it will
impact stakeholders throughout the company.
For example, will there be any future maintenance
costs the accounting department needs to be prepared
to pay? Are there opportunities for the social media
team to get involved? What assets have other teams
already developed that may be beneficial for this
project? It may even be helpful to create a formal new
project form that asks these types of questions up
front to help ensure all opportunities for collaboration
are considered.
http://www.refreshleadership.com/
index.php/2018/12/break-workplace-
silos-build-engagement-collaboration-productivity/
Southern Oregon Business Journal 9
Consuming the city: Ranking
restaurants per capita
By Joe Cortright
The number of eating places per capita is a key measure of a city’s livability
Cities are great places for consumers. They provide an abundance and variety of choices, especially in the
form of experiences. While our conventional economic indicators don’t fully capture the nature and depth of
choices in cities, there are some measures that shed light on which places offer the most. Today we offer
our index of restaurants per capita as one such indicator of where choice is greatest.
There are plenty of competing rankings for best food cities floating around the internet. You can find lists for
cities with the most restaurants, the best restaurants, the most distinctive local restaurants… and of course
none of these seem to agree (although the “winners” tend to be similar among these lists).
But what about the cities that provide the most dining options per person? And what does restaurant variety
have to do with a city’s livability?
One of the hallmarks of a great city is a smorgasbord of great places to eat. Cities offer a wide variety
of choices of what, where, and how to eat, everything from grabbing a dollar taco to seven courses of
artisanally curated locally raised products (not to mention pedigreed chickens). The “food scene” is an
important component of the urban experience.
Restaurants are an important marker of the amenities that characterize attractive urban environments. Ed
Glaeser and his colleagues found that “Cities with more restaurant and live performance theaters per capita
have grown more quickly over the past 20 years both in the U.S. and in France.”
Matthew Holian and Matthew Kahn have seen that an increase in the number of restaurants per capita
in a downtown area has a statistically significant effect in reducing driving and lowering greenhouse gas
production. We’ve assembled data on the number of restaurants per capita in each of the nation’s largest
metropolitan areas. These data are from the County Business Patterns data compiled by the US Census
Bureau for 2012. Note that this category, technically NAICS 72251, includes both sit down, table service
restaurants and simpler fast food and self-service self-service establishments. We’re also looking at metro-
wide data to assure that the geographical units we’re comparing are defined in a similar fashion—political
boundaries like city limits and county lines are arbitrary and vary widely from place to place, making them a
poor basis for constructing this kind of comparison.
As you might guess, the metro areas with the most restaurants per capita are found predominantly
in the Northeast and on the West Coast. Elsewhere, New Orleans scores high as well. While the average
metropolitan area has about 17 restaurants per 10,000 residents, the range is considerable. The San
Francisco metropolitan area has more than 23 restaurants per 10,000, while Riverside and Grand Rapids have
only about 14 per 10,000. (On this map areas shaded green have the highest number of restaurants per
capita; areas shaded red have the fewest. Detailed data on individual metropolitan areas is shown in the
table below).
Southern Oregon Business Journal 10The top six metropolitan areas on this indicator are San Francisco, New York, Providence, Boston, Seattle and
Portland. Each of these cities has twenty or more restaurants per 10,000 population. With the possible
exception of Providence, all of these are recognized as major food cities in the US. (And Portland achieves its
high ranking without counting the city’s more than 500 licensed food carts.)
In an important sense, the number of different restaurants in an area correlates to the range choices
available to consumers. Cities that have more restaurants per capita tend to have larger restaurants
(measured by the average number of employees per restaurant). Interestingly, Las Vegas, which we think of
as a tourism mecca, has fewer restaurants per capita than the average metropolitan area. A lot of this has to
do with scale—the average restaurant in Las Vegas tends to be much larger than in other metropolitan areas.
This ranking doesn’t include anything about quality–simply quantity–but the higher restaurants per capita can
indicate higher competition (and therefore better quality options), or higher demand (a signal that more
diversity of options is valued, allowing for more valuable experiences).
While this isn’t a perfect listing of best food culture — each person’s measure of the ‘best food town’ is
subjective — it does settle the debate of where you should go to have the largest selection of eatery options .
Joe Cortright is President and principal economist of Impresa, a consulting firm
specializing in regional economic analysis, innovation and industry clusters.
Joe’s work casts a light on the role of knowledge-based industries in shaping
regional economies. Joe served for 12 years as the Executive Officer of the
Oregon Legislature’s Trade and Economic Development Committee.
Southern Oregon Business Journal 11Cascade Health Alliance Invests in Children
with Expansion Grant to Oregon Tech Behavior
Improvement Clinic
CONTACT: Ashley Van Essen, Public Relations
Representative
ashley.vanessen@oit.edu
KLAMATH FALLS, Ore. – Oregon
Institute of Technology, “Oregon Tech,”
has announced a generous community
investment of $150,000 from Cascade
Health Alliance (CHA), for the critical
expansion of Oregon Tech’s Behavior
Improvement Group Applied Behavior
Analysis (BIG ABA) clinic. Focusing
primarily on the treatment of children
with autism or pervasive developmental
disorder diagnosis, the Oregon Tech
BIG ABA clinic began serving local
families in May 2018 as the only ABA
clinic within 75 miles of Klamath Falls.
The BIG ABA clinic and training center also provides the Future at Oregon Tech. This initiative focuses on
high quality training and supervision for Oregon Tech creating strong partnerships which provide students
bachelor’s and master’s students in the ABA degree unique applied experiences, improving the health and
programs. capacity of community partners, and building projects
which bring the campus into the community for the
This investment from CHA supports the BIG ABA benefit of both.
clinic’s goal of increasing treatment hours by 300
percent over the next five years, serving the needs of “The community investment from Cascade Health
the community and helping to address shortages Alliance demonstrates their passion and commitment
of qualified interventionists. The clinic expansion will for the Klamath Community,” said Oregon Tech
help build solutions to the hurdles preventing patients president, Dr. Naganathan. “CHA has been a strong
from receiving treatment, expand community outreach community partner for Oregon Tech in a variety of
efforts, and add in-home support for families, important initiatives, and this is one more example. We
increasing overall services for youth in our regional thank CHA for investing in our students’ education and
communities. practical experiences as we build the region’s rural
health care workforce.”
“At CHA we believe that by investing in our community
we are also investing in the members we serve,” said To learn more about the BIG ABA clinic, visit
Tayo Akins, President and CEO at CHA. “Our partner- bigaba.oit.edu or contact the clinic leadership team at
ship with Oregon Tech is a natural fit since we are both abaclinic@oit.edu or 541.885.1675.
highly engaged in serving our community. The BIG
For more information about how you can help support
ABA clinic is a shining light in the behavioral care
services provided to our members. We take pride in students at Oregon Tech contact Tracy Ricketts,
being a partner to empower the most vulnerable associate vice president for Development and Alumni
residents of Klamath County. Relations at 541-885-1118 or Tracy.Ricketts@oit.edu.
“The shortage of Applied Behavior Analysis profession- About Cascade Health Alliance
als is very significant in Oregon, let alone Klamath that As Cascade Comprehensive Care (CCC, the parent company of
CHA) and CHA celebrate 26 years of providing health care
has a significant demand for this service for the
services to its members, the company pledges its continuing
population we serve. This investment will allow CHA support to them and the Klamath community as a whole. CHA
to develop and have adequate access to Applied serves the Oregon Health Plan (Medicaid) members in Klamath
Behavioral Analysis providers and hopefully attract County. The company also serves Medicare members through its
providers that will stay in Klamath once they finish this partner, ATRIO Health Plans.
program,” Akins added.
About the Oregon Tech Foundation
The BIG ABA clinic has been identified as a priority The Oregon Tech Foundation is a 501(c)(3) organization that
project in the Rural Communities Development promotes and funds the educational, cultural, charitable, and
service functions of the Oregon Institute of Technology.
initiative of the $4 million Foundational Campaign for
Southern Oregon Business Journal 12aviation airports comprise the Oregon system.
Oregon’s economy reflects a rich diversity of
Forecasts of aviation activity are used to identify economic activity in the state that includes both
expected activity levels and based aircraft at high tech and natural and agricultural resource
individual airports in the system. industries. During the past three decades, Oregon
made the transition from a resource- based
A statewide perspective on aviation activity also economy to a more mixed manufacturing and
affords the opportunity to examine the context for marketing economy, with an emphasis on high
changes at Oregon airports. Where individual technology. Oregon’s hard times of the early 1980s
master plans or Airport Layout Plans (ALPs) look in signaled basic changes had occurred in traditional
detail at the local situation, the system plan offers resource sectors— timber, fishing, and agriculture—
the view from 30,000 feet. This makes it possible to and the state and industry worked to develop new
look at regional and statewide trends that are economic sectors to replace older ones. Most
resulting not only in absolute gains or declines at important, perhaps, was the state’s growing
particular airports, but also changes that come from high-tech sector, which centered in the three
redistribution of activity. counties around Portland. However, rural Oregon
counties were generally left out of the shift to a
The last system plan forecasts had a base year of
new economy.
2005. This forecast starts with the base year of
2015(1) and estimates changes in the next 20 years Population in Oregon is concentrated in a growing
from 2015 through 2035. The following components metropolitan area that spans from Portland and the
of aviation activity are considered in the forecasts: Willamette Valley along Interstate 5 as far south as
Eugene. It is on this corridor that the largest
• Commercial airline enplanements concentration of commercial air service activity
• General aviation based aircraft and general aviation operations take place.
• Total commercial, general aviation, and military Not surprisingly, since population correlates directly
operations with aviation activity, Oregon’s population is also
concentrated in Oregon Department of Transporta-
tion’s (ODOT) Connect Oregon Regions 1 and 2
Seven commercial service airports and 90 general where 75 percent of the state’s population reside.
CONNECT OREGON REGIONS POPULATION OVERVIEW
Connect Oregon Region Population Share
Region 1 1,803,980 44%
Region 2 1,260,920 31%
Region 3 494,625 12%
Region 4 328,370 8%
Region 5 188,455 5%
Total 4,076,350 100%
Source: Population Research Center (PRC), Jviation analysis
(1) Based aircraft forecasts were updated to 2017 due to revised FAA based aircraft figure
http://sites.jviation.com/oregonaviationplan/study-documents.html
Southern Oregon Business Journal 13Anderson Perry and City of Prineville
Win Project of the Year
The American Council of Engineering Companies Each year, dozens of firms from around the state
(ACEC) of Oregon announced the winners of the submit projects that are judged on a rigorous set of
2018 Engineering Excellence Awards, and for the criteria, which includes complexity, innovation, and
first time since the program’s inception more than value to society. These projects are judged by
50 years ago, an eastern Oregon firm’s project was a panel of industry experts including government
selected for Project of the Year. officials, ACEC leadership, educators from college
and university engineering departments, and leader-
In total, 31 projects were honored at the Awards ship from other organizations dedicated to the built
Gala, which took place at the Multnomah Athletic environment.
Club in Portland on January 17, 2018. Six projects
received Grand Awards. Anderson Perry’s Crooked “We are honored to be recognized alongside the
River Wetlands Project designed for the City of City of Prineville for this groundbreaking project,”
Prineville took home the main award of the night, said AP project manager Brett Moore.
Project of the Year.
https://www.andersonperry.com/anderson-perry-city-prineville-
win-project-year/
The ACEC Engineering Excellence award program
is an annual design competition that recognizes
About the Award Winning Project….
engineering achievements demonstrating the
highest degree of merit, ingenuity, and creativity.
Southern Oregon Business Journal 14CROOKED RIVER WETLANDS RECOGNIZED
AMONG NATION’S TOP MUNICIPAL
PROJECTS
Innovative wastewater
treatment system in
Prineville
heralded for
environmental benefits,
cost-effectiveness
Media Contact: ShanRae Hawkins, shanrae@hellostingray.com | 541-390-6411
(PRINEVILLE, Ore)—The City of Prineville is once protection and the clean water community that our
again in the national spotlight. This time, for its Members continually strive to achieve,” said Adam
environmental stewardship. Krantz, NACWA Chief Executive Officer.
Two national organizations have recognized In 2005, Prineville was tasked with upgrading its
Prineville’s recently completed Crooked River wastewater treatment facilities. Rather than build
Wetlands project as an outstanding a $62 million mechanical plant that would consume
a large amount of electricity and chemicals,
In November, the project was one of only five city leaders opted for a more cost-effective and
nationwide to be named “Exceptional” by the environmentally sensitive approach.
Environmental Protection Agency’s Clean Water
State Revolving Fund program (CWSRF), which Completed in 2017, the Crooked River Wetlands is
honors excellence and innovation in clean water an innovative natural wastewater treatment system
infrastructure projects. that established a 120-acre wetlands complex along
the Crooked River. While the complex incorporates
Also last month, the National Association of Clean
effective wastewater treatment, it also serves as
Water Agencies (NACWA) recognized the Crooked
an interactive community asset with hiking trails,
River Wetlands with its National Environmental
wildlife-watching, and educational kiosks.
Achievement Award. The honor was especially
significant given that the nomination came from
The city explored alternatives to costly conventional
City of Vancouver staff, who felt the project
wastewater treatment process expansions but
deserved national attention.
determined that pursuing a wetlands was the most
“NACWA’s National Environmental Achievement cost-effective. The project avoided a three-fold
Awards are a reflection of the incredible work increase in System Development Charges and a
that goes on 24/7 at our nation’s clean water doubling of customer sewer rates. Approximately
agencies. This year’s honorees reflect the half of the $7.7 million project investment was
outstanding contributions to environmental sourced from grants and partner funding.
Southern Oregon Business Journal 15“The Clean Water State Revolving Fund's PISCES Prineville’s reputation as a leader in sensible,
program recognizes community projects that utilize cost-effective and future-focused planning,” said
innovative techniques that improve the environ- Frank Dick, Engineering Supervisor for the City of
ment, public health, and the local economy, “ said Vancouver, Wash. “We were impressed with how
Dr. Andrew Sawyers, Director of EPA’S Office the effort managed to both stabilize the City’s
of Wastewater Management. “The economic wastewater capacity and stabilize rates, and
and creative aspects of this project provide many improve riparian and water conditions in the
benefits for Prineville supporting the selection of the Crooked River. Plus, the benefits to Oregonians
Crooked River Wetlands Complex as an Exceptional and visitors enjoying the whole river system is
Project in this year's PISCES Recognition Program.” something for which the citizens of Prineville can be
proud.”
Features of the Crooked River Wetlands project
include:
About the City of Prineville
• Recreational Opportunities - Amenities include Located east of the Cascade mountains in
5.4 miles of new walking, running and hiking Oregon’s high desert, the City of Prineville is a
trails, 3.25 miles of which are paved for use resurgent rural community that has preserved
year-round. A covered pavilion and restrooms its small-town, ranching roots and Western
provide a gathering place prior to birdwatching, lifestyle while embracing smart growth in
recreational hiking tour, and community events. a business-friendly environment. With a
• Educational - What could have been a standard population nearing 10,000 residents, the
public works project instead was designed as a county seat of Crook County attracts a diversity
hands-on educational asset that serves both of business and lifestyle interests, including
school children and civic organizations. Local tech giants Facebook and Apple, recreational
schools are incorporating the wetlands as part enthusiasts, and a thriving agricultural industry.
of their curriculum, including the design of Incorporated in 1880, City of Prineville operates
thirteen kiosks, on topics ranging from the the oldest continuously running municipal short
Crooked River Watershed to macroinvertebrates. line railway in the U.S., as well as a public golf
• Environmental Benefits - More than two miles of course, and airport. Prineville boasts numerous
riparian improvements to the Crooked River recreational assets, including the Ochoco
have been implemented, as well as the National Forest and Crooked River, and remains
construction of over 120 acres of wetlands, a popular destination for anglers and hunters.
benefitting many species of fish and wildlife, For more information on City services and
including lower river temperatures. programs visit cityofprineville.com.
“The Crooked River Wetlands project cements
Southern Oregon Business Journal 16Prineville – In the Center of It All
By Greg Henderson
It might have been 45 million years ago that the Crooked River Caldera was under nature’s construction.
The ground shook and mountains grew and exploded into molten lava and ash that made Mount Saint
Helens a rather ho-hum spectacle. Today the 10,000 people living in Prineville, call the center of the
caldera “Home”. On August 21, 2017 thousands of people dropped by to take a look at another amazing
natural spectacle, the total eclipse of the sun. Until you’ve actually seen an Eclipse in Totality you can’t
appreciate the soul-shaking experience that it is. It belongs on everyone’s bucket list.
Tourism, the US Forest Service and BLM provide an economic stability since timber faded in the past few
decades. Prineville is now experiencing a robust rebirthing that many believed might never come. But this
is a town who believed in the early 1900’s that in order to avoid becoming a Ghost Town they needed a
railroad for shipping lumber and logs. When the railroad tycoons bypassed the town, citizens voted to build
their own railroad by doing so in connecting to the main line 19 miles away. You can be born with an
independent mindset or you can be forced into it. Either way the citizens of Prineville are willing to face the
challenge. So, the town survived on its determination.
Known for ranching, and timber since Orgon’s statehood, growth and change came slowly. In 1952 Les
Schwab appeared with his small tire business and the bold notion that providing excellent service to
customers was a good business success plan. A few years ago, it was reported that Les Schwab reached a
level of success in the $1.5 billion range with about 390 stores in six western states. Apparently, good
customer service is a useful idea. It was 2006 that Les Schwab decided to move its corporate headquarters
to Bend. That same year Starbucks began serving coffee in town, a sure sign of the town’s 21st century
arrival.
By taking advantage of the Enterprise Zone opportunities through the State of Oregon agency,
“businessOregon” (https://www.oregon4biz.com/Oregon-Business/Tax-Incentives/Enterprise-Zones/) Prineville was able
to negotiate favorable incentives for new businesses to locate in the community.
Southern Oregon Business Journal 17Outgoing Mayor of many terms, Betty Roppe will tell you in her loyal and enthusiastic love of Prineville way,
that the news of high technology giant Facebook deciding to build a data center in Prineville was a welcome
one. Six years later, in 2012, Apple came to town.
There are those who thought city leaders were giving away too much in tax revenue in their desire to
persuade technology giants to town. If nothing else, it put Prineville on the map again. People in
the businesses of economic development, education, and modern industrial creation will be looking at
Prineville as a model of how to move forward and what hazards may be in the way.
“I believe we are positioning Prineville into a very
stable future by focusing on creating infrastructure for
industrial growth and stability. Our upgraded water
and wastewater systems are some of the most forward
-looking investments that will provide long benefits
while keeping user costs stable. We are addressing
street issues prior to crisis, again keeping upgrade
costs to a minimum. Our railway system accommodates
heavy industry at no added cost to the taxpayer
providing us the means to recruit industrial business
that would not have been able to function efficiently
here otherwise. Providing opportunity for businesses is
on the minds of all communities. We want to provide
an environment where business can be most
successfully operated, where they will choose to come.
Through that effort we provide opportunities for family
wage, benefitted jobs and diversification that will
endure the ups and downs of the economic cycles. ”
Steve Uffelman
About the City of Prineville
Located east of the Cascade mountains in Oregon’s high desert, the City of Prineville is a resurgent rural
community that has preserved its small-town, ranching roots and Western lifestyle while embracing smart
growth in a business-friendly environment. With a population nearing 10,000 residents, the county seat of
Crook County attracts a diversity of business and lifestyle interests, including tech giants Facebook and
Apple, recreational enthusiasts, and a thriving agricultural industry. Incorporated in 1880, City of Prineville
operates the oldest continuously running municipal short line railway in the U.S., as well as a public golf
course, and airport. Prineville boasts numerous recreational assets, including the Ochoco National Forest
and Crooked River, and remains a popular destination for anglers and hunters. For more information on City
services and programs visit cityofprineville.com.
Southern Oregon Business Journal 18Southern Oregon Business Journal 19
South Douglas County’s Employment
Base Differs from the Rest of the County
by Annette Shelton-Tiderman
The south Douglas County communities of Winston, Dillard, Myrtle Creek, Tri-City, Canyonville, Riddle, Days
Creek, Glendale, and surrounding areas, do not have the same employment base as the rest of Douglas
County. This small area accounts for approximately 20 percent of the county’s overall employment and is
noticeably different. The following graphs show the distribution of employment for these two areas; for this
analysis, county employment excludes the southern area (census tracts 1600, 1800, 1900, 2000, and 2100).
Some industries play a more prominent role in South County (SoCo) than for the county as a whole. On a
percentage basis, this small geographic area has more than four times the manufacturing employment than
the remainder of the county. This strong presence of production jobs reflects, in part, continuing reliance on
local forests and wood products. This close connection with natural resources and mining is supported by
area employment in that sector, with 8 percent of employment as compared with the county’s 5 percent in
Southern Oregon Business Journal 20natural resource-related jobs. Trade, transportation, and utilities ranks second for both SoCo and the
county. Interstate 5 readily enables the transportation of goods and services between all points north and
south.
The rugged outdoors, tribal gaming and other recreational pursuits brings leisure and hospitality
employment to third place (17%). This is notably much more than the rest of the county’s 10 percent.
Health care and social assistance, supporting 20 percent of the county’s employment, accounts for only 4
percent of SoCo’s employment. Again, I-5 also provides efficient connections to health-related facilities
and services in Roseburg, the county’s largest city. Other more urban-centered activities such as
professional and business services, public administration, and financial activities have smaller presence in
this rural area than countywide. Construction is another sector that has seen more urban growth in recent
years.
Looking at local employment patterns may help employers and community planners understand their
strengths and areas of potential opportunities. Manufacturing, natural resource-based work, and
recreational activities – coupled with good transportation routes – play a role in maintaining the
uniqueness of SoCo.
Southern Oregon Business Journal 21Southern Oregon Business Journal 22
Southern Oregon Business Journal 23
BY: DUY@UOREGON.EDU
Fed Hikes Rates, Market Tumbles
The Federal Reserve hiked rates as expected at December’s meeting while delivering a more hawkish
message than Wall Street was hoping for. Equities tumbled and the yield curve flattened further as Federal
Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference wore on. I can’t imagine that the Fed is pleased
with this outcome. That said, they have only themselves to blame. The Summary of Economic
projections continues to maintain an unnecessarily hawkish bias that only allows Wall Street’s worries
about growth to fester.
In retrospect, the outcome of this meeting is largely what would have been expected if you
focused more heavily on the data flow than on the turmoil in financial markets. The Fed
delivered largely according to my expectations, with a key exception: The Fed was more hawkish than
I anticipated in that they did not drop entirely the “further gradual increases” language in the FOMC’s
statement. I had expected them to create more uncertainty about the future; they chose
instead to reinforce their expectation that rates would continue to rise.
Arguably, they were forced by their own forecasts to retain the language. To be sure, the
revisions to the Fed’s forecasts were dovish in many ways. Expectations for growth, inflation,
longer-run unemployment, and longer-run interest rates were all revised lower. But these dovish shifts
failed to offset the fundamentally hawkish aspect of the forecasts: The forecasts continue to
say that central bankers anticipate they will continue to raise rates until the Fed turns policy
from accommodative to restrictive. It’s not just the median; the pattern of dots imply the same.
What’s going on here? The Fed is currently a slave to its own models. In simplistic terms, those
models will revert in a predictable fashion to whatever supply side conditions are chosen by policymakers.
Growth will slow toward trend and unemployment rise to its natural rate as policy rates rise into restrictive
territory. It’s all a straightforward mechanical exercise.
That exercise, however, implies far too much certainty about the path of interest rates. That path is only
valid in one particular future, but many futures are possible. Consequently, in the presser
Powell tried to downplay the dots. This though is really almost impossible to do because no
matter how you spin it the dots tell a clear story about the Fed’s expectations, and those
expectations amount to a hawkish policy bias, and that’s a message Wall Street doesn’t want
to hear.
I would say that Powell made the situation worse with this in the preamble to the presser:
Southern Oregon Business Journal 24What kind of year will 2019 be? We know that the economy may not be as kind to our forecasts next year
as it was this year. History attests that unforeseen events as the year unfolds may buffet the economy and
call for more than a slight change from the policy projections released today.
The implication here is that there is substantial downside risk to the economy. So much that
the Fed is reducing its forecasts across the board. So much so that the Fed anticipates they will
fall short of their inflation target yet again. And yet they continue to hike rates and signal
more rate hikes to come.
It is an unnecessarily and explicit hawkish message that is an artifact of a communications strategy that
only made sense when you could reasonably promise zero rates for an extended period. It makes no sense
to create the impression of a promise to continue to raise interest rates at a mature point in the business
cycle when growth is already slowing.
As for the rate policy itself, I tend to try to focus on what the Fed will actually do instead of what they
should do. The latter at this juncture though likely impacts the former. My crystal ball is as fuzzy as
any, but my instinct tells me this rate hike was more likely a mistake than not. It appears to be
an overly mechanical reaction to the model outcomes.
My ace-in-the-hole for the US economy is that inflation remains low enough to allow the Fed to
remain nimble. Or it had been. I don’t know what Wall Street is picking up; it isn’t in the macro data,
which ultimately is why the Fed chose to press forward. But whatever it is has been going on long enough
that it suggests caution is warranted. In a risk management framework, the Fed would have been
wise to skip this meeting and put January in play. By not doing so, I fear the Fed may flip
uncomfortably close to my alternative scenario – that they continue hiking until something
breaks.
If this rate hike is a mistake, the rate hikes for at least the first half of 2019 will quickly fall off
the table. My instinct tells me that should now be the base case. Eventually – and probably sooner
than later – the Fed will realize they need to offset the Trumpian uncertainty. They won’t like it.
But they will have to do it.
Bottom Line: The Fed hiked rates in a very predictable fashion. It might be
a decision that quickly comes back to haunt them.
Timothy A. Duy
Senior Director,
Oregon Economic Forum
Professor of Practice
Department of Economics
University of Oregon
Eugene, OR 97403-1285
duy@uoregon.edu
Southern Oregon Business Journal 25The Present We Didn’t Ask For by Jason D. Norris, CFA
Executive Vice President of Research
Merry Christmas You Filthy Animal Governor John Williams stated today on CNBC
Home Alone 2, Lost in New York – 1992 that the Fed will be flexible and that there isn’t a
That’s how equity investors received the Federal predetermined course regarding interest rate hikes
Reserve’s rate hike and comments earlier this and the reduction of the balance sheet.
week. While expectations were for the Fed to raise
the federal funds rate by 0.25 percent, there was a That’s the Gift that Keeps on Giving the
small glimmer of hope that they may hold pat. Whole Year
There was also a perception by some on the Street National Lampoon’s Christmas Vacation -- 1989
that the Fed was on “autopilot,” which if one looks While trade took a backseat to Fed headlines this
at 2018, as well as the comments from Chairman week, it continues to be an overhang. The periodic
Powell, this is not the case. We believe that the headlines, both on the positive and negative front,
Fed will be “data dependent” and does not have a
have increased volatility in the markets due to the
preset course for balance sheet reduction or pace
uncertainty it has created. Currently, tariffs have
of rate hikes. 2018 is a good example of that focused industrial companies, such as Caterpillar
belief. A year ago, the Fed was expected to raise and John Deere. This has been seen primarily in
the funds rate three times in 2018; however, due the steel and aluminum tariffs. As we’ve written
to the stimulus of the tax cut and fiscal spending, recently, while the tariffs garner high levels
they ended up hiking rates four times. Fed
of uncertainty, the actual dollar impact on the
economy is relatively
small. When looking
at the equity
markets, if there is
a full-blown trade
war with China, the
effects will spill over
to the consumer.
Barclay’s highlights
below the effects on
earnings for each
of the 10 economic
sectors, as well as
the S&P 500. With
increased tariffs on
Chinese goods, the
largest impact is
going to be on retail-
ers in the consumer
discretionary sector.
The biggest wildcard
is the effect a trade
Source: Barclays Research
Southern Oregon Business Journal 26war would have on consumer spending. With retailers
potentially feeling a big impact, will they raise prices to
offset tariff costs, forcing consumers to feel the burden?
Don’t Bother Me … I’m Thinking
A Christmas Story – 1983
With the recent carnage in the markets and increased
uncertainty, investors have to stay disciplined and not
get emotional. We understand that volatility can
be unnerving; however, we have to stay focused on
the fundamentals. We do realize that volatility and
uncertainty can persist and we have been making tactical
adjustments accordingly. Over the last few months, we
have been reducing risk in client portfolios, shifting from
highly cyclical sectors into those that are more defensive.
We have not, however, begun to sell stocks and add to
bonds.
Week in Review and Our Takeaways
• Stocks finished the week falling over 7 percent
as investors reduced risk assets in the face increased
uncertainty. The Dow Jones Industrial Average suffered
its worst week since October 2008
• Questions about Fed policy, continued trade issues
and chaos in D.C. have left this month on pace to be the
worst December since 1931
• Investors are nervous about Fed policy in 2019 and
will lead to continued volatility
• The U.S. economy remains healthy and while we have
pared back risk, we are not reducing equity exposure
Disclosures
Tagged: Ferguson Wellman Capital Management, West Bearing
Investments, Jason Norris, CFA, Federal Reserve, Federal Funds
Rate, Chairman Powell, China, Trade, Volatility
https://www.fergusonwellman.com/fw-team/jason-norris-cfa
FERGUSON WELLMAN
(503) 226-1444 | (800) 327-5765
WEST BEARING
(503) 417-1444
ADDRESS
888 Southwest Fifth Avenue, Suite 1200
Portland, Oregon 97204
Southern Oregon Business Journal 27Local Lions Clubs raise funds to help build the Heartfelt House
Contact: Sherri Buri McDonald
Media Relations, PeaceHealth Oregon
541-520-8219 or SBuriMcDonald@peacehealth.org
SPRINGFIELD, Ore. – The Heartfelt House, an $8.4 away from home, but even more important, it can
-million project, has sparked the imaginations and help ease the anxiety when a loved one needs
pulled at the heartstrings of a diverse group of hospital care.
donors, including individuals, corporations and
community service clubs. So much can’t be controlled when a family member
is in the hospital, Gear said. “This part is in our
Entirely funded through philanthropy, the house is control,” he said. “We can help provide a warm
emblematic of the region’s tremendous generosity. bed, a kitchen and a place to let down.”
So far, more than 600 donors have contributed
from $10 to $1 million, raising a total of $5.8 The project is especially close to Gear’s heart
million. because of his role in bringing the Patterson Street
patient guest house to Eugene. As a Lions Clubs
Set to open in June, the Heartfelt House will offer International director in the late 1990s, Gear
comfortable, affordable lodging to out-of-town toured a guest house the Lions had helped
families of patients at PeaceHealth Sacred Heart establish in Christchurch, New Zealand. He and
Medical Center at RiverBend in Springfield and other club members saw the need for one in the
University District in Eugene. The 20,208-square- southern Willamette Valley. They raised $280,000
foot house will be just a five-minute walk from to help launch the Children’s Miracle Network/Lions
RiveBend.
Lions Clubs International and local Lions,
including the service club in Sutherlin, have
raised $220,000 for the Heartfelt House.
Lion Ed Gear has witnessed that generosity
first-hand as he has talked about the
Heartfelt House at clubs throughout the
Willamette Valley, coastal and southern
Oregon.
“I have not had to work hard to get that
kind of donation,” Gear said. “They just
immediately started contributing and very
much wanted to be a part of it.”
The cause resonates with people, Gear
said, adding that many Lions either know people Ed Gear & Yvonne Hamson
who have stayed at a patient guest house
somewhere in the country, or they’ve used one Patient Family Guest House on Patterson Street
themselves. near the University District campus.
A guest house lessens the financial burden of being More than 20 area Lions Clubs have contributed to
Southern Oregon Business Journal 28the Heartfelt House, including those in Eugene, because of inability to pay.
Springfield, Alvadore, Junction City, Cottage Grove,
Elkton, Sutherlin, Florence, Yachats, Mapleton, Coos “It’s our hope that the Heartfelt House will provide a
Bay, Jefferson, Monmouth-Independence, West place where families in our region can be loved and
Salem, Brownsville, Halsey and Albany. receive the support that they desperately need
during their most challenging times,” Neumann
Many other groups and individuals also are said.
generously supporting the Heartfelt House. One
example is Oregon Community Credit Union There are still opportunities to give to the Heartfelt
(OCCU), which created a foundation earlier this year House, which anticipates serving up to 1,500
to deepen its involvement in community service. families a year. More information about the project
The foundation’s inaugural gift was $500,000 to and how to donate is available here.
support the pediatric wing of the Heartfelt House. About PeaceHealth: PeaceHealth, Based in
Vancouver, Wash., is a not-for-profit Catholic health
“We have a longstanding relationship and are a
system offering care to communities in Washington,
longtime supporter of Children’s Miracle Network
Oregon and Alaska. PeaceHealth has approximately
and believe that investing in the health and
16,000 caregivers, a group practice with more than
well-being of the youngest in our community is a 900 providers and 10 medical centers serving both
good way to support the strength of the entire urban and rural communities throughout the
region,” OCCU President and CEO Ron Neumann Northwest. In 1890, the Sisters of St. Joseph of Peace
said. founded what has become PeaceHealth. The Sisters-
Rendition of Heartfelt House Exterior
The 20-room guest house will have a 10-room shared expertise and transferred wisdom from one
pediatric wing and an a 10-room adult wing. It will medical center to another, always finding the best way
be a collaboration between PeaceHealth, which to serve the unmet need for healthcare in their
will own the land and building, and Ronald communities. Today, PeaceHealth is the legacy of the
McDonald House Charities, which will oversee founding Sisters and continues with a spirit of respect,
day-to-day operations. Guests will pay from stewardship, collaboration and social justice in fulfilling
nothing to a modest fee, depending on their its Mission. Visit us online at peacehealth.org.
circumstances. But no one will be turned away
Southern Oregon Business Journal 29Southern Oregon Business Journal 30
12 Tips for Making Video a Reality in 2019
By Holly Paige, Wave One Group
If 2019 is the year you’re finally going to start producing video content to promote your
business or organization, here is a handful of tips to help you plan a flawless video campaign in
the New Year.
1. Know why you’re producing a video.
This should be obvious, but you’d be surprised how many otherwise smart professionals decide they want
to produce a video about their company without thinking through their goals and outcomes. Don’t be
that person! Get clear about the pain you want your video to relieve before you start imagining what you
want your video to look like.
2. Decide who this video is for.
Every video you produce needs to appeal to a specific audience. Take the time to identify the audience
you want to reach and the messages you want to communicate before you start production. Doing your
Southern Oregon Business Journal 31homework will help you decide the type of video you want to produce, as well as the creative tone and style
you want your video to convey.
3. Get clear about your outcomes.
What do you want your target audience to do after they’ve watched your video? Visit your website for more
information? Donate money online? Fill out an online job application? Whatever your outcomes, make sure
your video has a strong call to action, directing viewers to take the next step.
4. Be honest about the investment you’re willing/able to make.
Successful video projects are an investment in time, money, and talent. The average video project takes an
average of 12 weeks, from concept to completion. On the low end, a typical budget for a two-to-three-
minute video starts at around $5,000. Expect budgets to vary widely, depending on the complexity of the
video you want to produce.
5. In-house or outsource?
If you’re producing a video in-house, your main investment will be staff time. If you outsource your project,
your investment will be in dollars, to hire outside video experts who can assist you in everything from story
planning, project management and creative development, to filming, story production and editing. The
deciding factor typically comes down to the amount of extra staff time an organization has (or doesn’t have)
to devote to the amount of time needed to produce a video.
6. Plan, baby, plan.
Leave winging it to the birds. Without a solid plan, your video project is DOA.
7. Short, long, or in-between?
There’s a lot of buzz around the “perfect” length of a video. The truth is, there is no perfect video length.
However, there are guidelines, based on how a video will be used. For example: 60-90 second video
testimonials of company executives or customers work well as email attachments, on a website, or on a
social media platform. Ditto for a two-to-three-minute product demo. Videos in the three-to-five-minute
range (company culture videos; award videos; fundraising appeal videos; video case studies) work well in
live presentations, or on a website. My rule of thumb around video length is: make sure your video is long
enough to cover your most important messages, but not too long that people lose interest.
8. There’s no “I” in team.
Keep your internal team small and focused. Make sure everyone on your team shares the same goals and
outcomes and is motivated to keep the process moving forward.
9. Find video partners that work and play well with others.
Every video company has a great demo reel. But look beyond the pretty images when evaluating a potential
video partner for your next project. Find a team whose work ethic and values mirror yours. Seek out video
pros who “get” your vision, are focused yet flexible, communicate well, enjoy the collaborative process, are
easy to work with, and deliver projects as scheduled.
Southern Oregon Business Journal 32You can also read
