LABOUR SHORTAGES AND THE NEED FOR IMMIGRANTS: OECD

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Part II
      LABOUR SHORTAGES AND THE NEED FOR IMMIGRANTS:
               A REVIEW OF RECENT STUDIES1

Introduction                                               ing participation rates, postponing retirement ages,
                                                           stimulating the labour market participation of
     Economic, demographic and political develop-          women and immigrants are among those instru-
ments, combined with the mounting concern about            ments, as is facilitating selective employment-
the future of labour supply have renewed the atten-        related immigration policies. Whilst each of these
tion of policy-makers on labour migration issues. A        instruments may contribute, no single instrument in
good economic climate and years of economic                itself can promise the complete solution. However,
growth in some OECD countries have led to increas-         faced with the urgent need to meet a growing
ing employment, higher participation rates and             demand for workers with specific skills in certain
lower unemployment rates. Employers started to             sectors, some countries have already started to facil-
experience difficulties in filling vacant posts, con-      itate labour market access for skilled immigrant
cerns about the availability of labour on domestic         workers. Some countries have considered recruit-
markets arose and the first calls for immigrant labour     ment of immigrants on the basis of their human
echoed.                                                    capital, i.e., through selective immigration, to com-
     The increasing diversity of migrant’s nationali-      pensate for an ageing workforce. Hence, the policy
ties and of the migration channels used, as well as        re le vance of considerin g the comple te set of
the growing proportion of movements of temporary           options as well as the advantages and limits of
and skilled workers in total migration flows reflect       selective labour immigration.
the influence of increasing internationalisation on             The aim of this chapter is first to show how a
international migration. Migration has not, however,       number of OECD member countries estimate the
accelerated at a pace comparable to trade flows and        current and forecast labour shortages (A). The role of
capital movements (Tapinos and Delaunay, 2000).            migration in alleviating future labour market needs
     Demographic developments in OECD coun-                will be then presented (B). Section C will review sec-
tries imply an ageing workforce and ultimately result      tor specific and micro-level studies making the link
in a declining population of working age. The possi-       between labour shortages and the need for selec-
bility that these developments also result in labour       tive employment-related immigration policies.
shortages at the macro-level has added an extra
dimension to discussions on the need for immi-             A.   MEASURING CURRENT LABOUR
grants. In the medium term, as early as 2015 for                SHORTAGES
some countries, the increasing number of retiring
baby-boomers will in some occupations lead to a                Labour shortages are not easy to measure. At
replacement labour demand that may be hard to fill         the macroeconomic level, reference is made to fall-
from domestic labour supplies. Some countries with         ing unemployment rates and increasing employ-
low labour force participation rates may be able to        ment, sometimes coupled with accelerating real
use their large labour reserves.                           earnings to indicate growing labour market tight-
    Policy makers have various instruments avail-          ness. However, labour market tightness is better
able to react to potential labour shortages. Increas-      measured by comparing actual unemployment rates          103

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Trends in International Migration

         with structural rates of unemployment; frictional and       2.   Causes of labour shortages
         structural labour market rigidities can be a cause of
         persisting unemployment combined with wage infla-                 Labour shortages have a variety of causes. They
         tion. Because structural rates of unemployment are          may occur because of a lack of geographical mobility
         not readily available, unemployment rates are               on the part of the workers. They may be the result of
         sometimes given in relation to the vacancy rates for        a mismatch between qualifications. For example,
         a specific occupation (defined as ratio of the num-         there is evidence of a mismatch between the low
         ber of vacancies and the number of employed in              qualifications of the numerous unemployed and
         that occupation). Zimmerman et al. (2002) have              in a cti ve wo rk e rs a nd t h e h ig h qu a lifi cat io n s
         calculated Beveridge curves for 1980-95 for 40 occu-        needed in Germany’s technology intensive industry
         pational groups in Germany.2 They have found indi-          (Winkelman, 2001; Munz and Ochel, 2001; Süssmuth,
         cations of shortages in the early 1990s for engineers,      2001). Zimmermann et al. (2001) find evidence of
         stone masons and technicians, persisting until 1995         mismatch-unemployment in shifting Beveridge
         for health-related occupations. In France, the occu-        curves for welders, technicians, electricians, occupa-
         pational job-seekers ratio, defined as the ratio of         tions in the food industry and construction workers,
         the number of job-seekers in a specific occupation          carpenters and painters. In other cases, the occupa-
         to the total of job-seekers and employed workers in         tion’s image is not good enough, at the going wage
         that occupation, provides a disaggregated illustra-         rate, to attract a sufficient number of workers, even if
         tion of the tightness in the labour market. It indi-        supply is abundant. Klaver and Visser (1999) find
         cates increasing tightness in the labour market in          this effect for different sectors in the Dutch econ-
         construction and mechanical industries (DARES,              omy. Among the other important factors explaining
         2001a and 2001b).3                                          labour shortages are demographic factors, rapid
                                                                     technological progress and the resulting change in
                                                                     employment structure towards highly skilled labour
         1.   Trends in national statistics on the number            cyclical variations in demand, production and the
              of registered vacancies by sector                      derived labour demand, rigid wage structures and
              of employment and occupational category                collective agreements (Munz and Ochel, 2001;
                                                                     Australian Productivity Commission, 2000).
              Increases in the number of vacancies in and
         outside the high-tech sectors 4 in non-European                  The Netherlands, for example, argue that labour
         OECD countries give similar indications of strongly         shortages would develop less if the number of sepa-
         increasing numbers of unfilled job vacancies, con-          rations were reduced5 (Tweede Kamer, 2001b). The
         centrated in a small number of not necessarily              Belgian Federal Planning Bureau (FPB) finds in the
         highly-skilled occupations. For example, the Austra-        absence of a positive wage drift and inflation the
         lian vacancy bank Job Search listed as the top four         indication that general labour shortages are neither
         most wanted occupational groups among the total of          an issue now nor in the medium term. However,
         40 500 job vacancies in mid December 2001: Labour-          demographic developments may change the situation
         ers, Factory and Machine Workers (9 000); Food,             for the longer term (FBP, 2001). Austria considers
         Hospitality and Tourism (5 600); Sales Assistants           labour shortages as a consequence of mismatches in
         and Storepersons (4 200); and Gardening, Farming            the labour market, but takes the demographic
         and Fishing (3 700) (DEWR, 2002).                           developments into account when predicting the
                                                                     medium term consequences (Biffl and Walterskirchen,
               Another possible measure of labour market             2001). The various explanations of the existence of
         shortages is found in employers’ reports where              current labour shortages and the potential effects of
         th e y e xpr ess th e ir con ce rn a bou t th e co n se -   demographic trends result in a number of different
         quences of developing shortages of qualified                definitions of labour shortages.
         workers in certain occupations. The surveys con-                To sum up, the different causes of labour short-
         firm the picture that vacancy data give: shortages          ages identified from the studies discussed in this
         appear to be concentrated in specific sectors but           chapter can be summarised as follows:
         these sectors are not the same across countries.
         The results also show that employers experience                  • Continuing technological change may lead to
         shortages mainly at higher skill levels, but not                   a structural shortage of workers in possession
104      exclusively (see Annex II.1).                                      of the needed skills: workers neither had the

                                                                                                                    © OECD 2003
Labour Shortages and the Need for Immigrants: A Review of Recent Studies

       time nor the opportunity to invest in these               The need for immigrant labour depends in
       skills.                                              large part on a country’s initial situation. Countries
     • Slow adjustments in the labour market may            with low unemployment rates and high activity
       cause shortages. It takes time for employers         rates, like Norway, might exhaust earlier opportuni-
       to recognise labour shortages and to react to        ties to retrain unemployed workers and inactive
       them, for example by offering higher wages. It       people than countries with a more abundant stock
       also takes time for workers to recognise bet-        of people not in work. Two factors play a determin-
       ter opportunities elsewhere and to react to          ing role: the size of the potential labour force and
       them. Employers may be reluctant to raise            the obstacles to labour-market integration that cer-
       wages or are tied to collective agreements or        tain groups face.
       inflexible remuneration structures.                       The resident potential labour supply consists of
     • Mismatch: wrong education investment deci-           unemployed people, people available but not par-
       sions resulting in too few engineers, scientists     ticipating in the labour market and people not avail-
       and doctors, for example.                            able and not participating. There also is potential
     • Insufficient regional labour mobility.               labour supply among people who are employed
                                                            involuntarily in a part-time job. The group of unem-
     • Institutional or demographic causes: a high          ployed people can be further divided into recently
       number of people in retirement or invalidity         unemployed people and people who have been
       pensions, low female participation rates.            unemployed for a longer period of time. The former
     There is no universally applied definition of          could be referred to as frictional unemployment,
labour shortages. In part this reflects the fact that       which is caused by a number of people in the pro-
they are not easy to measure. Macroeconomic data            cess of changing jobs.
do not reveal that tightness can be severe for some
occupations whilst absent in others. Employer                    The second group of people, the non-
reports and surveys confirm that shortages occur in         participants, is a much more heterogeneous group
specific occupations and at different skill levels.         than that of the unemployed. Other than the unem-
However, employers report on recruitment difficul-          ployed, not all non-participants are available for
ties but not on labour shortages per se. The studies        work – they may be facing serious obstacles. A con-
discussed in this chapter define labour shortages in        siderable part of this group consists of people
different ways to explain their possible different          whose health does not allow them to work. Another
causes and forecast their potential development.            part is formed by people who are otherwise not
                                                            available for work either because care-giving tasks
                                                            occupy their time or simply because they do not
3.   Labour reserves exist but it would be difficult
                                                            wish to work. The unavailability for work may be
     to mobilise them rapidly
                                                            temporary, as for students and others temporarily or
     The arguments in favour of attracting immigrant        partly inactive because of education or professional
workers to solve labour shortages rest partly on the        training.6 But there are also a number of people who
assumption that the resident labour supply is insuf-        are in principle available for work although they are
ficient, or of inferior quality, to meet labour demand.     not actively looking for work.7
But if the number of resident unemployed and inac-
                                                                The size of the unused labour supply varies
tive people can largely fill labour demand in quanti-
                                                            enormously, ranging in 2000 from 18 to 22% in
tative terms, then why not proceed that way? The
                                                            Switzerland and Sweden to 40% in Italy (OECD,
answer to this adds considerably to the sensitivity of
                                                            2001e). Some research argues that for countries like
the issue of labour migration. Some governments
                                                            the Netherlands (Tweede Kamer, 2001a and 2001b)
hold the view that the unused resident labour sup-
                                                            and Belgium (Feld, 2002) latent labour supplies are
ply is sufficient to solve the present and future
                                                            such that general labour shortages are not likely to
labour shortages – for example, Finland and the
                                                            develop.
Netherlands – and do not envisage any changes to
the existing restrictions on labour immigration rules.           The OECD has recently started to investigate
At the same time, both these countries, like many           the potential labour supply.8 Based on the observa-
others, facilitate the immigration of highly skilled        tion that on average for the OECD slightly more than
workers for occupations where the national labour           55% of the working age population in 1999 was in
market cannot supply sufficient labour.                     full-time employment, the OECD report aims to                      105

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Trends in International Migration

         indicate the potential for full-time employment           rates on the one hand are very low – well below the
         among people in part-time employment, unemploy-           replacement level of 2.1 children per woman – and
         ment and inactivity. The remainder, 45%, is either        falling. On the other hand, people’s life expectancy
         (partly) unemployed or (partly) inactive and, in the-     at birth continues increasing, which goes together
         ory, represents the latent labour supply. Unem-           with improving prospects of a healthy old age. The
         ployed people accounted for 5% and the biggest            combination of low fertility and increasing longevity
         chunk, more than 27% of the entire population of          means that population growth rates are slowing
         working age, was not in the labour force for various      down and that there is an increasing proportion of
         reasons.                                                  elderly in the total population.
              Labour Force Survey questions on the reasons              The prospect of rising shares of the elderly in
         for not looking for work are subject to a certain         the population and falling shares of the population
         amount of interpretation. For example, respondents        of employment age to support pension and health
         referring to family responsibilities may mean that        systems has been an issue of previous OECD work
         they are unable to free themselves of these respon-       (OECD, 1998a and 1998b). Population ageing will
         sibilities because of non-availability of child-care or   have far-reaching effects, some of which are of par-
         because they do not wish to work under current con-       ticular importance for the discussion of the role of
         ditions. The availability of child-care could be the      migration policies:
         object of a policy initiative whereas changes in the          • Demographic developments will change
         individual’s personal situation or in labour market or          labour supply. The labour force changes in
         policy inducements to participate could change his/             composition as the share of older workers
         her preference to work. In this regard, the answers to          grows, and it may dwindle if people continue
         the questions on the desire to work would help dis-             retiring early. The number of new entrants
         tinguish “real” impediments from what could be                  into the labour market may be insufficient to
         termed “competing activities” (OECD, 2002d). How-               replace retiring workers.
         ever, respondents who indicate no desire to work
         may well change opinion, for example students in              • The ageing of the workforce may adversely
         their final year.                                               affect macroeconomic performance if future
                                                                         labour supply is inadequate to meet the
              A considerable portion of the working age pop-             qualitative and quantitative need for workers
         ulation is not actively engaged in any form of                  to sustain economic expansion or preserve
         employment or study. This is referred to as the resi-           present welfare levels.
         dent latent labour force. To the extent that govern-
         ments succeed in mobilising this unused potential,            • The growing number of people relying on
         current labour shortages can be alleviated, reducing            retirement benefits will shift the balance
         the need for immigrant labour. The analysis shows               between working people (contributors) and
         that the most important potential is among middle-              inactive people (beneficiaries) to an extent
         aged inactive women, most of whom have less than                that may put the finance of social security sys-
         intermediary qualifications. Another important tar-             tems at risk.
         get group is youth, a state of things caused by a mis-         The role of migration in addressing these chal-
         match between education out-turn and labour               lenges, in particular the third issue of financing
         demand. Further work is needed to obtain timely           social security, was the subject of a recent UN report
         quality labour force data for the OECD countries.         (UN, 2000). The report concluded that keeping old
         More analysis is also needed to establish the type        age dependency ratios at current levels through
         of education and recent experience of the latent          migration alone seems out of reach because of the
         supply.                                                   extraordinarily large numbers of migrants that would
                                                                   be required. The study presented different scenar-
         B.   THE ROLE OF MIGRATION IN ADDRESSING                  ios with regards to international migration streams
              FUTURE LABOUR MARKET NEEDS                           needed to achieve specific population objectives:
                                                                   to maintain the size of the population and of the
         1.   Demographic challenges                               working population or to maintain the old age
                                                                   dependency ratio at a constant level. The study
             Two phenomena mark current demographic                estimated that to keep the old age dependency
106      trends in most industrialised countries. Fertility        ratio constant at the highest level it would reach in

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Labour Shortages and the Need for Immigrants: A Review of Recent Studies

the absence of migration after 1995, “for the EU                 Two important observations moderate the
alone a total number of 674 million migrants over           extreme hypothesis of the UN report. First, the
the 2000 to 2050 period, or 13 million per year”            choice of time horizon is essential to the evaluation
would be needed. In comparison, the 1998 revision           of the demographic effects of migration and, more
Population Prospects (medium variant) on the basis          relevant to the present context, of the effects of
of current flows estimated the total over the entire        demographic developments on the labour market.
period at 13.5 million or a yearly average of 270 thou-     The second observation is that the UN uses its pro-
sand (UN, 2001).                                            jections of the old age dependency ratios on the
                                                            assumption that labour force participation and
     Despite its extraordinarily high estimates the
                                                            retirement ages do not change. The development of
UN report has attracted a lot of media attention and
                                                            the size of the labour force is under those assump-
certainly has helped to put the discussion of labour
                                                            tions proportional to the size of the working age
migration issues back high on the political agenda.
                                                            population as shown in Chart II.1. Chart II.1A shows
Increased immigration has the advantage of having
                                                            that Australia, New Zealand, Ireland, Canada, and
an immediate effect on the age and composition of
                                                            the United States are exempted from the trend of
the population because of the younger age structure
                                                            declining working age populations. In many other
of net migration. In addition, fertility rates of immi-
                                                            countries, the working age population will decline
grant women are often relatively high, which can
                                                            rapidly and will fall well below its present levels
boost fertility and hence long-term population
                                                            by 2030. Chart II.1B shows a number of OECD coun-
growth. However, the role of migration policies in
                                                            tries with decreasing working age populations. The
addressing these challenges can only be comple-
                                                            countries are grouped by the size of their popula-
mentary to other policies and is subject to a number
                                                            tions. The working-age population will decrease,
of practical and political constraints (OECD, 1991).
                                                            according to UN projections, slowest in France (–8%
     Tapinos, for example, noted with reference to          by 2050) and fastest in Italy (–42% by 2050). In the
the UN report that further analysis of the practical        Nethe rlands, the working-age populatio n will
and political issues involved in the implementation         decrease by 14% by 2050, in Austria by 36%. The
of an effective demographic and labour market ori-          decline of the working age population appears to be
ented policy is needed. This would enable OECD              relatively moderate in Belgium, Denmark and the
member countries to have a clearer picture of the           Netherlands, the United Kingdom, Norway and
extent to which international migration can contrib-        France, but rapid in most other countries.
ute to positive outcomes (Tapinos, 2000). He quoted              In this context, Tapinos notes that the old age
different reasons why immigration cannot be a sole          dependency ratio is a demographic ratio that com-
solution to population ageing:                              pares age groups and should more realistically be
    • Most OECD countries share the same demo-              replaced by the ratio of retired persons to employed
      graphic pattern and the bulk of immigration           persons (Tapinos, 2000). Depending mainly on
      would have to come from outside the OECD              female participation, average retirement ages and
      area.                                                 on employment rates, there may be a significant dif-
                                                            ference between the two ratios. The following dis-
    • Migration cannot be treated as a control vari-        cussion shows how some countries take account of
      able because there are too many factors that          expected changes in labour force participation rates
      limit the ability to control and select migra-        and retirement ages in the forecasting of labour
      tion flows. In addition, migration policies           force developments.
      have limited effects on return migration.
    • Because the means available to monitor the            Migration and sustaining the labour force9
      trend of net migration differ across countries,
                                                                 Ba se d o n t h e U N P op ul at io n P ro j ect io n s
      it is unclear whether migration policy targets
                                                            of 1999, the Council of Europe has analysed the
      are actually attained.
                                                            effects of demographic changes in the working age
    • Finally, immigrants have a better chance of           population on employment and unemployment
      integrating in a society that experiences a nat-      (Council of Europe, 2000). The study addresses the
      ural increase, which reduces the value of             question of how and to what extent labour migration
      immigration as a substitute for declining fer-        may be affected by labour shortages, thereby taking
      tility rates.                                         into account the possibility that activity rates change            107

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Trends in International Migration

                         Chart II.1.     Projections of the working age population (15-64) in selected OECD countries

                                               A. Countries with working age populations increasing by 2050
                                                                                2000 = 100

                         New Zealand                      Ireland                Australia                     Canada                   United States

             130                                                                                                                                        130

             125                                                                                                                                        125

             120                                                                                                                                        120

             115                                                                                                                                        115

             110                                                                                                                                        110

             105                                                                                                                                        105

             100                                                                                                                                        100
                                       2000                                         2030                                         2050

                                               B. Countries with working age populations decreasing by 2050
                                                                                 Thousands

                                               2000                                  2030                                  2050

          100 000                                                                                                                                       100 000

          80 000                                                                                                                                        80 000

          60 000                                                                                                                                        60 000

          40 000                                                                                                                                        40 000

          20 000                                                                                                                                        20 000

               0                                                                                                                                        0
                        Japan             Germany                   Italy      United Kingdom         France             Spain            Poland

          12 000                                                                                                                                        12 000

          10 000                                                                                                                                        10 000

           8 000                                                                                                                                        8 000

           6 000                                                                                                                                        6 000

           4 000                                                                                                                                        4 000

           2 000                                                                                                                                        2 000

               0                                                                                                                                        0
                    Netherlands     Portugal          Belgium         Sweden      Austria       Switzerland    Denmark       Finland        Norway

108      Source: United Nations, 2001.

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Labour Shortages and the Need for Immigrants: A Review of Recent Studies

over time and across countries. It does not, however,           Kingdom, but not in the other countries. This could
take account of the effects of possibly changing                imply a need for more migration, except in the cases
actual retirement ages. Up to 2010, the size of the             of Ireland and Portugal, where the demographic
labour force is projected to increase in all countries.         effects are positive.
Projections are given up to 2020 for France, Poland,                 Feld concludes, however, that the evaluation of
the Netherlands and Austria; a declining labour                 the role of migration in attenuating the expected
force can be seen in Austria, France and Poland.                declines of the labour force has a number of meth-
      Chagny et al. (2001) forecast the development of          odological and political problems. Forecasts of
the European labour force, taking into account the              labour force developments assume that migratory
effects of migration and changing participation rates.          flows in respect of age composition and participa-
Allowing for an annual immigration that rises from              tion rates are identical to the host country popula-
7 00 0 00 pers ons in the 19 95 -2 00 0 period t o              tion and neglect the fact that net migratory flows
900 000 persons by 2020, the authors expect the                 involve inflows and outflows that may vary hugely in
European labour force to decline rapidly after 2015.            composition and magnitude (see also Box II.1).
Taking the analysis of the interactions between                 Another issue is that situations of neighbouring
demographic trends and the labour force one step                countries may vary considerably; labour shortages in
further, Feld (2001) looks at 15 EU countries for the           some countries may occur 10 or even 20 years
period of one generation (25 years) ahead. The                  before they emerge in other countries.
author specifically addresses the question whether                    For Scandinavian countries, the Nordic Council
population ageing will lead to labour shortages and,            of Labour Ministers recommends a number of
if so, whether large-scale immigration will be neces-           actions to deal with the expected decline of the
sary. Bringing together information from different              labour force. First and foremost, they intend to
countries using a common methodology, Feld calcu-               mobilise the latent labour supply among four target
lates when the labour force in the EU countries will            groups: the ageing population; inactive and unem-
fall back to its 2000-level. He distinguishes between           ployed youth; inactive adults and inactive and
demographic effects (fertility, life expectancy and             unemployed foreign-born residents. They do not,
migration) and behavioural effects (participation               however, give quantitative estimates of the poten-
rates, retirement age, size of the school-going popu-           tial impact of any of these measures but compare
lation). According to Feld’s estimate, behavioural              best practices among Nordic countries. One of its
effects can compensate for demographic effects in               conclusions confirms the findings for the EU quoted
Denmark, France, the Netherlands and the United                 above (increased migration might contribute to

                      Box II.1.   Gains and losses in high skilled labour through migration

          Migration involves inflows and outflows that may vary hugely in composition and magnitude. Some countries
    have recently drawn up the balance of skill gains involved in immigration and skill losses involved in emigration.
          As a result of the international movement of skilled workers to and from Australia over the five-year
    period 1995-1996 to 1999-2000, Australia registered a net “brain gain”. There was a net loss of skilled residents
    but this loss was more than offset for almost every occupation by gains from permanent and temporary
    immigration. The lack of quality data leaves open the possibility that Australia is losing high quality residents
    and replacing them with lower quality settlers and visitors, albeit in greater numbers (Birrell et al., 2001).
          Canada suffered a net loss of skilled workers to the United States in several economically important
    occupations during the 1990s, although the numbers involved have remained small in an historical sense and
    small relative to the supply of workers in these occupations. (See also Bordt in OECD, 2002b.) However, whilst
    losses of highly skilled workers to the United States accelerated during the 1990s, so too did the influx of highly
    skilled workers into Canada from the rest of the world. The balance is neutral: the number of master’s and
    doctoral graduates entering Canada from the rest of the world is equal to the number of university graduates at
    all levels leaving Canada for the United States (Zhao et al., 2002).

                                                                                                                                  109

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Trends in International Migration

         shifting the trend of an ageing workforce). Restricting         the demographic change is limited compared
         the immigration of people with low qualifications to            to other EU countries and because it has a
         prevent integration difficulties is among the policy            large second pillar of privately funded occu-
         options; the Nordic Council of Labour Ministers cau-            pational pension schemes (Van Ewijk et al.,
         tions that in this case integration policies need fur-          2000). However, the study makes some assump-
         ther attention (Nordic Council, 2000).                          tions about participation rate, life expectancy,
                                                                         productivity growth and world interest rates
              At the level of individual European countries,             (which might not hold), and fiscal policies
         studies of demographic impacts on the labour mar-               alone may not be enough to achieve budget
         ket often confirm the expected trends summarised                neutrality. The CPB assumes that the bulk of
         in the preceding paragraphs. Some of them illus-                immigrants will come from Third World coun-
         trate the role migration could play in combination              tries and argues that because their current
         with other policies.                                            participation rates are much lower than for
                                                                         natives, they are much more likely to be ben-
              • For France, Blanchet (2001) finds contradictory          efit dependent and add to the stock of inac-
                evidence in a literature review of demographic           tive persons living off public money.
                impacts on trends in wages, employment and
                unemployment. Domingues Dos Santos (2000)               The Australian Treasury directly links the
                looks into the budgetary effects. She argues       growth of working-age population to economic
                that to maintain the financial sustainability of   growth, thus implying positive effects of net immi-
                the social security system (i.e. pension system)   gration (Australian Treasury, 2000). Withers (1999)
                with the given unemployment rate, either the       demonstrates that a proper estimation of migration
                retirement age should be raised by 11 years,       rates should include dependency ratios and related
                benefit levels reduced by 14% or contribution      budget costs. This can result in an argument in
                rates increased by 4.5%. Whilst both papers        favour of much higher immigration; it would have
                discuss the demographic impacts on the             the effect of halving the public cost of an ageing
                labour market, they do not refer to migration      population. However, McDonald and Kippen (2001)
                as a policy alternative.                           argue that the budgetary effects of higher migration
              • The German Institute for Employment                are not clear because the immigrant population also
                Rese ar ch (IAB) e stimat es th e po te nt ial     ages. In their estimates, net immigration of about
                domestic labour supply from 1996 to 2048           80 000 persons a year makes a reasonable contri-
                under different assumptions about female           bution to the reduction of the ageing of the popu-
                participation rates and higher immigration         lation. Higher numbers are less effective, mainly
                (Fuchs and Thon, 1999; IAB, 1999). IAB argues      because the immigrant population also ages. By
                that German labour supply will decline, what-      comparison, Australia’s net immigration has ranged
                ever policy is chosen. However, high immigra-      between 80 000 and 107 000 between 1995 and 1999
                tion does postpone the year when labour            (OECD, 2001d).
                supply will start to decline, especially in com-
                                                                        For the United States, the Centre for Retire-
                bination with an increase in labour participa-
                                                                   ment Research finds that men and women between
                tio n rates. For example, in the scenario
                                                                   25 and 54 years old account for 71.7% of the labour
                whereby female participation rates catch up
                                                                   force in 1998 but expects that their share will fall to
                with male participation rates and net immi-
                                                                   68.1% as early as 2006 (Hammermesh, 2001). As the
                gration is zero, the labour force would start to
                                                                   oldest baby boomers will begin to retire, the impli-
                decline by 2000. If in a similar situation,
                                                                   cation s for t he workfo rce cou ld be en ormo us
                500 000 immigrants per year as of 2000 are
                                                                   (Gottschalk, 2001). The current tight labour market
                admitte d, th e o nset o f the labo ur fo rce
                                                                   situation could be exacerbated, hindering prospects
                decline could be postponed by 20 years
                                                                   of economic growth and putting a greater burden on
                to 2020.
                                                                   those remaining in the workforce, perhaps forcing
              • The Netherlands Bureau for economic policy         them to work longer hours. After 2008, as more and
                analysis (CPB) established on the contrary         more baby boomers reach retirement age, the
                that ageing will have fairly modest economic       impact of their retirements will continue growing
110             consequences in the Netherlands, because           (Dohm, 2000).

                                                                                                             © OECD 2003
Labour Shortages and the Need for Immigrants: A Review of Recent Studies

2.   Special studies on the economic need                            adjust to immigrant labou r. If migration
     for migration                                                   started with 100 000 yearly, implying a cut in
                                                                     migration compared to the actual situation,11
     The developments raised in this chapter, com-                   increasing to 150 000 a year by 2020 and then
bined with the mounting concern about the future of                  further to 300 000 a year the active labour
labour supply have triggered a number of special                     force would decline least and economic
studies of the economic effects of international                     growth would be maximised.
migration and the need for foreign labour. The moti-
vation for each of the studies is to provide a basis              The activities of the Süssmuth Commission
upon which policy-makers can decide on the need              have led to an entirely new and coherent immigra-
to review migration practices and policies and on            tion law that should come into force on the 1st of
the manner in which eventually such revisions could          January 2003. This law establishes clearly the rights
be made. It appears that employer reports of a               of foreigners to remain and work in Germany and
shortfall of qualified labour supply and studies on          simplifies the existing law. As to labour migration,
the demographic impacts on the labour force and              the law distinguishes high-skilled from low-skilled
labour market have not been sufficient.                      workers. Only the highly-skilled are eligible for a
                                                             permanent permit. However, where shortages exist,
Germany                                                      the decision to resort to temporary immigrants can
                                                             be made at a regional level. The law refers to a
     Th e G e rma n co mmissio n o n imm igra tio n          points-system, yet to be developed, as an addi-
(Süssmuth Commission) has undertaken a study of              tional instrument to attract immigrants. Such a sys-
the role of migration in the economy, now and in             tem would be subject to separate approval by the
future (Süssmuth, 2001). Among its main findings             German Länder.
are:
     • Large pools of unused labour reserves con-            The United Kingdom
       sisting of unemployed and inactive people
       co-exist with increasing labour demand. Lack               The Home Office, in charge of immigration and
       of qualifications is the main reason for the          integration, has published a study aiming to contrib-
       unemployment of around 4 million people.              ute to: “a sound understanding of the impact of
       However, the report does not give a clear             existing policies affecting migration and migrants,
       answer as to the extent to which the present          and a framework for assessing the costs and benefits
       labour demand can be met through activating           of potential alternatives” (Glover et al., 2001). The
       and upgrading the skills of the unemployed.           study looks at migration “in the round”; proceeding
                                                             with a discussion of the Government’s higher level
     • Immigration can contribute to maintaining             objectives and examining the social and economic
       present economic welfare levels conditional           outcomes that current policy delivers. The study
       on the good integration of migrants. Better           embraces the idea that migration enables industries
       qualified and younger migrants have more              to expand. Using the information technology (IT)
       im me diat e a nd mo r e size a ble po sit iv e       industry as an example: “so if migration of workers in
       effects.                                              particular sectors is restricted […] then it will not be
     • If Germany maintains a net immigration at             primarily the case that supply of, and wages of
       200 000 yearly – the average level for the past       native British IT workers will increase. The IT indus-
       20 years – the decline of the German popula-          try will simply shrink relative to what would have
       tion will be limited to 12 million people.            happened with a less restrictive policy.” The esti-
       Without immigration, it will shrink by 23 million     mate is that a 1% population growth through migra-
       people by 2020 compared to 1999/2000.10 The           tion could be associated with a 1.25 to 1.5% increase
       share of older people in the population (rela-        in GDP for European countries.
       tive ageing) will increase whatever the migra-             Like the German report, the Home Office study
       tion scenario, because migrants age as well.          is an ad-hoc report that focuses not only on the
     • Immigration has significant effects on wage-          need for foreign labour and migration policy but
       flexibility and investment in education.              analyses the past and present effects of migration as
       Therefore immigration intake should start at          well. Both studies result in a number of policy rec-
       modest levels to give the market time to              ommendations. But whereas the German study is                      111

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Trends in International Migration

         very detailed and extensive, and definitive in that it         • Austria has become a net-immigration country
         has led to a proposal for a new immigration law, the             without developing the instruments for an
         UK study serves as a basis for further work. It does             immigration policy. The basics for a targeted
         not address any of the issues related to the demo-               immigration policy do not exist yet. Inconsis-
         graphic impact on labour supply nor a humanitarian               tent data about the foreign population do not
         immigration and family reunion, which the German                 give sufficient insight into the resident labour
         report covers, and hardly touches on the need for                supply. Acknowledging the potential contri-
         good integration policies. However, the study also               bution that a qualifications-oriented migra-
         fits into a broader government-commissioned                      tion policy can make to solve many economic
         framework making use of existing infrastructure to               and social problems may ease the introduc-
         improve the documentation on current and future                  tion of such policies.
         labour market bottlenecks, analysing why compa-
         nies ask for workers with new skills and – ultimately
         – assessing labour demand and skill needs (DFES,           Norway
         2001c; Haskel and Holt, 1999).
                                                                          Against the background of tight labour markets
         Austria                                                    in 1997 and 1998, the Norwegian Ministry of Local
                                                                    Government and Regional Development, which has
              A particularly sizeable study by the Austrian         the responsibility for immigration and integration,
         Institute of Economic Research (WIFO), co-funded           commissioned a pan-departmental task force with a
         by the European Social Fund (ESF), the Ministry of         study of labour market needs and recruitment pos-
         Economics and Labour (BMWA) and the Ministry of            sibilities from abroad (Kommunal-og Regionalde-
         the Interior (BMI) covers demographic challenges,          partementet, 1999). The task force proceeded in two
         the educational attainment of foreign-born residents,      steps. First, it identified 11 strands to immigration
         foreigners’ labour market integration, crowding-out        policy; second, it made recommendations as to the
         effects on the labour market, family reunion, social       feasibility of each of these strands. Their final report
         costs and macroeconomic aspects of immigration.            gives very little attention to the evaluation of cur-
         Among the main conclusions are (WIFO, 2001):               rent labour shortages, other than stating that short-
                                                                    ages can be observed but cannot be forecast.
              • Net immigration can contribute to sustained
                                                                    Depending on the world-economy, however, and
                economic growth and to solving problems
                                                                    given the near-full utilisation of Norwegian domestic
                related to the sustainability of the social secu-
                                                                    labour supply, present shortages are likely to per-
                rity system, next to a better use of the resident
                                                                    sist, although they may well shift from one sector to
                labour potential. However, current migration
                                                                    another. Demographic developments will inevitably
                policies are not adequate to deliver these con-
                                                                    lead to growing labour market tightness. The main
                tributions because family reunion and humani-
                                                                    text appears to take the need for foreign labour for
                tarian immigration play a dominant role, while
                                                                    granted, although the magnitude may vary according
                labour immigration is marginal.
                                                                    to the scenario.
              • Increasing participation rates of the sizeable
                foreign-born resident population will only                The report stresses the fact that labour immi-
                have limited success because their qualifica-       gration inevitably involves the immigration of peo-
                tion structure is too much concentrated on          ple with differing needs for housing, public services,
                skills that are in low demand. The integration      etc. Some options or decisions may cause a conflict
                of immigrants’ children could be accelerated        with the leading principle in Norwegian politics that
                by le ga lisin g accompa nyin g families as         all citizens should have equal opportunities, rights
                quickly as possible, thereby helping them in        and obligations. What to do, for instance, with tem-
                establishing an education career and helping        porary residents? The task force recommends facili-
                Austrians in building a higher skilled labour       tating the entry of high-qualified specialists and
                force. However, the Austrian education sys-         seasonal workers. This needs relatively few adjust-
                tem is as yet not set up to train the relatively    ments to immigration law and may offer a flexible
                small cohorts of the future labour force for        framework in reaction to the ever-changing labour
                tho se qualificatio ns that are in growin g         demands. It will have many positive and few nega-
112             demand.                                             tive side effects.

                                                                                                               © OECD 2003
Labour Shortages and the Need for Immigrants: A Review of Recent Studies

The Netherlands                                                                 mends selective and temporary labour migra-
                                                                                tion (WRR, 2001a).
    The major government institutions in th e                                 • The Social and Economic Council (SER), com-
Netherlands have produced a vast body of research                               missioned by the Minister of Social Affairs
covering microeconomic effects of immigration, the                              and Employment, has looked into possibili-
demographic challenges as discussed above, issues                               ties for improvement of the low intra-EU
of social and labour market integration and case                                labour migration and to analyse the potential
studies of immigration experiences in neighbouring                              benefits for the Dutch labour market, in par-
countries and in the United States.                                             ticular in alleviating current labour shortages
                                                                                (SER, 2001). The study identifies obstacles in
    • The Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy
                                                                                legislation that should enable EU-citizens to
      Analysis (CPB) for the first time since 1972 has
                                                                                reside and work in an EU-country of their
      estimated the labour market effects of migra-
                                                                                choice. But more importantly, the SER has
      tion for the Netherlands (Roodenburg and
                                                                                found that the access to certain professions is
      Van den Boom, 2000). They find that the inter-
                                                                                limited for citizens from other EU-countries.
      national evidence need not necessarily hold
                                                                                Examples are jobs where certain certificates
      in Holland among other things because old-
                                                                                are required that may not be obtainable in
      age pensions are largely capital funded and
                                                                                other EU countries, the incapacity of employ-
      more or fewer migrants will hardly effect its
                                                                                ers to judge the value of foreign degrees and
      affordability. However, they also argue that
                                                                                certain government-jobs that are closed to
      the social security system is relatively gener-
                                                                                foreigners. The SER also makes recommenda-
      ous compared with that of the United States
                                                                                tions to better enable job-seekers to orien-
      (where most evidence is based) and costs/
                                                                                tate themselves in other EU job-markets.
      benefit ratio may well be negative. They
      observe that the high population density in
      the Netherlands may cause much more seri-                         C.    STUDIES ON LABOUR SHORTAGES
      ous congestion effects than elsewhere.                                  AT MICRO-LEVEL AND THE NEED
                                                                              FOR IMMIGRANT WORKERS
    • The Dutch Scientific Council for Government
                                                                              Macroeconomic studies may establish the posi-
      Policy (WRR), considering that the Netherlands
                                                                        tive overall effects of migration, the consequences
      has developed into an immigration country,
                                                                        of ageing and the effect of raising participation rates
      h as initiate d a n ew stu dy on th e Multi-
                                                                        and lowering retirement ages on labour supply; they
      Cultural Society (WRR, 2001a). In the context
                                                                        cannot explain on what migrant-characteristics
      of the study, the WRR has asked several
                                                                        selective immigration policies could be formulated.
      researchers to compile the information neces-
                                                                        Nor can they explain how many immigrants could
      sary to form a solid empirical foundation for
                                                                        and should be recruited to meet labour market
      policy advice. The issues covered mostly deal
                                                                        n e e ds a n d fo r h o w l o n g th e s e n e e ds ca n be
      with the integration of foreigners into society,
                                                                        expected to last. These questions are important
      ranging from the institutions of Islam in the
                                                                        against the background of the general tendency,
      Netherlands and the demographic profile of
                                                                        particularly in European and Scandinavian coun-
      f o r e i g n bo r n c it iz e n s t o t h e e f fe c t s o f
                                                                        tries, to call for restrictions on migration.
      advanced economic integration and migration
      policies in other EU countries. In its final and                       Studies by sector or occupation exist in many
      concluding report on the study, the WRR rec-                      countries but only some of them relate the develop-
      ommends that policy should facilitate immi-                       ment of labour demand to labour supply. These
      grants’ integration, but at the same time                         studies often give an indication of labour market
      oblige immigrants to fully participate socially                   prospects for an occupation or a specific kind of
      and economically in all segments of society.                      education related to that occupation. More recently,
      As to labour migration, the WRR recommends                        kinds of education with good job prospects have
      that the government should consider interna-                      been related to labour market tightness. The very
      tional labour migration as a form of interna-                     limited number of studies that establish a direct link
      tional labour participatio n and simplify                         between emerging labour shortages and the need
      bureaucratic procedures. It explicitly recom-                     for immigrant labour will be discussed below.                      113

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Trends in International Migration

         1.   Sector-level studies on the need for immigrant           more youth in IT-oriented studies, but does
              workers                                                  not give estimates of the extent to which
                                                                       these shortages could be covered by the
               The overview in Annex II.1 of employer associa-         domestic labour force. The report apparently
         tion’s reports and surveys among employers sug-               believes that this is sufficient to cover labour
         gested that employers have a pretty good picture of           needs because recruiting professionals from
         the recruitment difficulties that they can expect in          abroad is not among the policy recommenda-
         the near future. Economic studies on labour short-            tions to meet the future IT labour-market
         ages, on the other hand, indicate that precise quan-          challenges (USDOC, 1999a and 2000).
         titative estimates may not be that straightforward to
         give.                                                       • In 1999, the German Ministry for Labour and
                                                                       Social Affairs gave an estimate of 75 000 unfilled
              • The Centre for International Economics (CIE),          job vacancies in the ICT sector and a growth
                commissioned by Australia’s association infor-         potential for 250 000 jobs in the 1999-2008
                mation and communication technology (ICT)              period. It drew consequences for migration
                employers, estimates that Australia will expe-         policies from this observation and gave the
                rience shortage of ICT-professionals. The short-       starting sign for a programme to strengthen the
                fall of ICT professionals with a university degree     supply of ICT specialists. The best-known ele-
                is in this study estimated quite precisely at          ment of this programme is the “Green-Card”
                27 500 persons for the period 2000-2005, over          initiative to ease the entry of ICT-specialists
                and above the number of graduates and                  from outside the European Economic Area
                migrants that are already expected to join the         (EEA). After 11 months, only 8 000 Greencard
                industry during that period. Among the rea-            visas had been gr an te d, in st ea d of t h e
                sons for the shortage the CIE mentions a too           planned 20 000 (BMA, 2001). The main draw-
                restrictive immigration policy and emigration          back of the initiative is seen to be the tempo-
                to the United States (CIE, 2001).                      rary nature of the visas, which are limited to
                                                                       five years. However, the initiative did yield
              • The Technology Administration of the United            some benefits. First and foremost, it intensi-
                States Department of Commerce has for a                fied the discussion on the topic of immigration
                number of years drawn attention to the loom-           and has contributed to the coming-into-being
                ing shortage of information technology (IT)            of the Independent Commission on “Immi-
                workers (USDOC, 1997a and 1997b, 1999b).               gration” (Werner, 2001). Also, being part of a
                The Technology Administration has weighed              bigger programme, it proved successful in
                the views of employers, who believe that               raising training places and educational slots
                there is not enough trained labour supply,             at schools, universities and within compa-
                and employees, who believe that labour sup-            nies. It is also worth noting that those com-
                ply is sufficient both in quality and in quan-         panies who did employ foreign IT workers
                tity, but that industry does not do enough to          with a Green Card showed some important
                mobilise existing labour pools. A recent               positive spin-offs of immigration. In particular
                report describes trends in sector-level labour         (BMA, 2001):
                supply and demand and discusses signals of
                labour market tightness. It anticipates a need         – For each Green Card holder, 2.5 comple-
                for more than 2 million new IT workers in                mentary posts have been created;
                the 2000-2008 period, of whom 15% are to
                replace retiring and departing workers and             – More than four out of five companies report
                85% to support new job creation. Of these                having obtained a higher competitive stan-
                jobs, more than three fourths require at least           dard through employing the Green Card
                a bachelor’s degree. The report gives signals            holder, and nearly half say they have elimi-
                of developing labour market tightness and                nated capacity problems;
                implies important shortages at higher skill
                levels. It discusses developing the latent             – Nearly one-fifth of all participating compa-
                labour supply of women and older workers,                nies have renounced plans to relocate a
114             improving the IT-sector’s image and interesting          part of their business abroad.

                                                                                                            © OECD 2003
Labour Shortages and the Need for Immigrants: A Review of Recent Studies

2.   Studies on labour shortages by occupation               ers at all levels of education and training. Growth
                                                             rates are projected to be faster, on average, for occu-
     A great number of studies project employment            pations requiring at least an associate degree than
growth either two, five or ten years ahead but give          for occupations requiring less training. However, the
no indication of labour shortages. They do not anal-         largest volume of job creation will be in occupations
yse the development of labour supply and are not             requiring less formal education or training, even
linked to immigration policy questions. In general,          though many of these occupations are projected to
occupational demand projections estimate future              have below-average growth rates. There will also be
replacement and expansion demand:                            numerous job openings resulting from the need to
     • Labour demand as a result from the need to            replace workers who leave the labour force or move
       replace workers who leave a specific job,             to other occupations (Braddock, 1999; see also
       switch occupations or leave the labour market         Thomson, 2000). Note that BLS has just started with
       altogether is a function of the number of peo-        a Job Openings and Labour Turnover Survey (JOLTS) to
       ple taking retirement, the average age of             measure labour market tightness and labour market
       (early) retirement, mortality and invalidity. But     (matching) efficiency but has not yet analysed the
       temporary separations, for example people             issue of labour shortages using JOLTS.
       taking sabbatical leave, functional mobility                To quantify the need for workers in short supply
       and emigration, also play a role. If employ-          estimates of both the quantity and quality (i.e., the
       ment growth is low or nil, labour demand will         skill-level), of labour supply, also need to be made.
       mostly consist of replacement demand.12               The supply of labour for a specific occupation con-
     • The demand for labour to support business             sists of first-time labour market entrants, unem-
       expansion is a function of economic develop-          ployed people and people who move jobs, and
       ments, the phase in the economic cycle, eco-          suitable people temporarily outside the labour mar-
       nomic policy, technological progress and              ket. The number of first-time entrants in any forecast
       globalisation, among other factors but these          period can be worked out by grossing up the num-
       factors need not influence the demand in dif-         ber of students leaving education in that period
       ferent occupations across the labour market           and the number of people who have left education
       to the same extent. Economic growth in the            just before the forecast period and did not gain
       last decade has stimulated labour demand in           employment.
       some sectors more than in other, i.e., ICT and               A complicating factor in making accurate prog-
       construction. The changing structure of eco-          noses about labour supply is the link between edu-
       nomic growth, in favour of the tertiary sector,       c a ti o n a n d e m pl o y me n t. It i s i m po s si bl e t o
       or the above-average growth of specific occu-         determine the supply of labour-market entrants on
       pations, add an extra dimension and difficulty        an occupation-specific level on the basis of the
       to the forecasting of labour demand.13                annual number of graduates. To begin with, it is not
     Studies of labour demand by occupation can              accurate to determine specific levels of qualifica-
predict where employment growth will be the fast-            tions from the various types of schools. Some
est. Annex II.2 gives an overview of projections of          schools deliver a standard qualification level but for
occupation-level labour demand for 12 OECD coun-             other qualifications, notably those required for ICT-
tries. The United States, for example, annually pub-         occupations, there are no fixed standards of refer-
lish the Occupational Outlook Handbook. The Office of        ence. Another difficulty in the forecasting of first-
Occupational Statistics and Employment Projec-               time entrants by occupation or by type of education
tions, under the Department of Labor, develops               is that the influence of labour market developments
information about the labour market for the nation           and education policy on young peoples’ decisions
as a whole for 10 years in the future. Total employ-         to choose a certain occupation or a certain type of
ment is projected to increase by 20.3 million jobs           training is almost impossible to model.
over the 1998-2008 period, rising from 140.5 million              The most obvious method to estimate future
to 160.8 million, according to the latest projections        labour market tightness for first-time entrants is to
of the Bureau of Labor Statistics – (BLS, 2002).             work out the development of demand by occupa-
Although employment growth rates will go down                tion and to determine which type of education is
compared with those of the previous 10-year period,          most wanted for the various occupations. If the
the economy will continue generating jobs for work-          demand of first-time entrants with a certain type of               115

© OECD 2003
Trends in International Migration

         education is greater than the supply, labour market          are expected to have in recruiting workers for that
         tightness may result. However, a number of things            specific occupation.
         can obscure the resulting picture:
                                                                           Applying a similar methodology, the ROA has
              • Employers may react to abundant supply by             assessed whether the higher education systems in
                adju sting th eir re cruitmen t criteria and          the EU Member States will provide sufficient num-
                employ people who are overqualified (in a             bers of Science and Technology (S&T) graduates to
                slack labour market) or underqualified (in a          meet the demand for scientists and engineers (RSE’s)
                tight labour market) for the job.14                   up to 2002 (Marley et al., 2001). The report identifies
              • Difficulties exist in translating the expected        opportunities for international labour mobility to
                employment growth by sector in the develop-           solve the labour market bottlenecks. The forecasts
                ment of total employment at the occupational          use four alternative scenarios and indicate consider-
                level and the future employment structure by          able shortages of RSEs in one or more fields of
                qualification. A key of correspondence has to         study in all EU Member States except Belgium,
                be used, which inevitably results in some             Greece, Spain, Finland and the United Kingdom. At
                aggregation and hence, a loss of precision.           the same time, for the EU as a whole there is excess
               One example of a study of the labour market            supply in each of the four fields of study distin-
         prospects of graduates is the regular employment             guished, illustrating the importance of international
         projections carried out by the Research Centre for           labour mobility.
         Education and the Labour Market (ROA), commis-                    Comparable institutions can be found, for
         sioned by the government of the Netherlands (ROA,            example, in Australia, Canada and in the United
         2001a). The forecasts apply to a total of 207 occupa-        Kingdom. The Australian Department of Employ-
         tional groups and 104 different education types              ment and Workplace Relations publishes the Job
         across the labour market. For these groups, the              Outlook Report, a guide to the skills projected to be
         numbers of people moving into the labour market              in demand in the future and highlights occupations
         and separating from the labour market are forecast           with good prospects. Job Outlook Online is an on-line
         for specific future time periods. The demand for             version accessible to all interested job-seekers and
         labour consists of the demand to replace departing           aspirant immigrants (DEWR, 2002). The Australian
         workers and the demand to realise business expan-            Job Outlook publishes job prospects with a rating.
         sion. Labour demand for business expansion is esti-          Nearly 400 occupations are listed with an indication
         mated on the basis of short and medium term                  of the career prospects (“Good”, “Average”, “Limited”)
         forecasts of the economy by the Netherlands Bureau           they offer to first-time labour market entrants. The
         for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB). Labour demand            prognoses applied to the 2001-2006 period is very
         is further distinguished by occupational group and           accessible and includes the National Skill Shortage
         by type of education. A systematic comparison with           List (see Annex II.2). There are two important differ-
         labour demand by type of education results in a              ences with the Dutch ROA study. First, the DEWR
         summary of the labour market perspectives for new            pays considerable attention to regional differences
         entrants by type of education, and the future possi-         in labour market tightness and draws up State skill
         ble recruitment difficulties by type of education.           shortage lists. Second, there is an explicit link with
         The value of the Indicator Future Labour market perspec-     immigration policy through:
         tives (ITA) indicates for which types of education a
                                                                          • The facilitating of immigration for people with
         future mismatch between supply and demand can
                                                                            skills that feature on the National Shortage
         be expected. Reminiscent of the Australian and
                                                                            List (more on this in the last section).
         Canadian practice describing labour market pros-
         pects, the indicator takes the values “Mediocre”,                • The Skills Matching Database. Introduced in
         “Good”, “Very Good” or “Fair”. Government migration-               1997, the database contains information
         policy discussion documents (Tweede Kamer der                      about skilled workers who have lodged migra-
         Staaten Generaal, 2001a and 2001b) and the main                    tion applications outside Australia in the
         advisory bodies to the government (WRR 2001a,                      Skilled-Independent and Skill-Matching visa
         2001b and 2001d), (SER, 2001) frequently quote                     classes. On the one hand, it is designed to
         these results. This is in recognition of the fact that the         assist State and Territory governments and
         mirror image of good labour market perspectives for                employers to attract skilled migrants to areas
116      a certain occupation is the difficulties that employers            of Australia who wish to increase their skilled

                                                                                                                © OECD 2003
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