MANAGING THE REFUGEE AND MIGRANT CRISIS THE ROLE OF GOVERNMENTS, PRIVATE SECTOR AND TECHNOLOGY - PWC
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Managing the
refugee and
migrant crisis
The role of governments,
private sector and
technology
PwC’s Global Crisis Centre is an
international centre of excellence made
up of crisis specialists. We convene the
best industry and technical expertise
from across PwC’s worldwide network
to help organisations confront crisis
with confidence.
Global Crisis Centre
“We want to ensure that refugee rights are upheld
everywhere and that they have access to shelter, food
and healthcare. This must continue. But we also want
to create opportunities for education and livelihoods.
This is what refugees want desperately.”
Filippo Grandi, United Nations (UN)
High Commissioner for Refugees, February 2016
Acknowledgment: This paper was written in collaboration with Eurasia Group www.eurasiagroup.net and a PwC working
group of professionals currently assisting governments and the private sector on global refugee and migrant crisis issues.
Global Crisis Centre
Contents
Executive summary 2
Introduction 3
What drives the movement of people globally? 8
International cooperation and considerations for governments 10
Economic impacts and the role of business 14
The role of technology and digital innovation 19
Future trends and recommendations 24
Concluding remarks 31
Contacts 32
References 33
Managing the refugee and migrant crisis 1
Executive summary
Macro vulnerabilities and Though much of the current refugee and challenges faced by governments
protracted political instability in exodus from the Syrian conflict has and private sector actors alike in
various parts of the world, impacted the Middle Eastern and Central addressing this crisis, and we discuss
including the Middle East and Asian neighbour states, including opportunities for collaboration as well as
certain regions of Africa and Asia Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey, global the key role technology can play.
have given way to a growing attention and media has been focused on
Europe, where political institutions are In the final sections of this paper, we
migrant crisis that is increasingly
experiencing substantial pressure and present future trends and scenarios as
reverberating through the politics,
strain. However the importance of well as recommendations. We urge
economies and societies globally,
assessing impacts and developing consideration of the analyses presented,
particularly in Europe. As the because left unaddressed, or if addressed
solutions for unmanaged migration and
number of refugees globally refugee issues by governments and the unilaterally rather than in parallel, the
continues to rise, even though an private sector is a global challenge, and a ongoing refugee and migrant crisis has
immediate resolution seems global opportunity. the power to distort the politics of
unlikely in the near future, it is nations, presenting significant long-term
crucial for governments, This paper explores the definitions, risks to the macro business environment
multilateral organisations, public causes and challenges of migration, with and, in the case of Europe, the single
and private sectors to contribute an emphasis on forced and unmanaged market. In this context, public and
towards finding solutions. migration. We also take a closer look at private sectors have a critical role to play
the 'push' and 'pull' factors that influence and can serve as leaders in developing
refugee and unmanaged migration flows, solutions for enhancing the security and
both in the Middle East and North Africa wellbeing of nations and their
and also in other global hotspots. In this inhabitants, whilst encouraging a
paper, we outline the roles, opportunities humanitarian response to the crisis.
2 Global Crisis Centre
Introduction
map 1 populations of concern to unhcr by category | end-2015
Globally, one in every
refugees, 122
including human beings
persons
Figure 1: Global trends – increase in worldwide displacement
in a refugee-like situation
is now either a refugee, internally
displaced or seeking asylum. This Turkey
represents an increase of over a third in lebanon
the last five years (see Figure 1).1
According to the United Nations High
Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR, or pakistan
The UN Refugee Agency), there are Islamic rep.
of Iran
currently 59.5 million people across the ethiopia
world who have been displaced, 19.5
million of these are refugees.2 In Europe
alone, more than 1,011,700 migrants
arrived by sea in 2015 and, almost
34,900 arrived by land, according to
estimates by the International
asylum-seekers (pending cases)
Organisation for Migration (IOM).3 sweden
Germany Source: UNHCR 18 June 2015
Upon reflection, many in Europe will However, the refugee and migrant
view 2015united
ofas the year of the migrant4
states
america
Turkey
situation and the subsequent issues it
crisis. This is largely owing to rising brings, are a global concern, not just a
volatility and political instability in the European one (see Figure 2).
Middle East and Africa, and the
associated surge in migration to Europe.
map 1 populations
Figure 2: Refugees, of concern
including persons in a to unhcr bysituation
refugee-like category | end-2015
refugees, including persons
south africa
in a refugee-like situation
Idps protected/assisted by unhcr, Turkey
including persons in an Idp-like situation
lebanon
syrian arab
republic
Iraq
pakistan
Islamic rep.
of Iran
yemen
colombia
ethiopia
sudan
number of persons
5,000,000
1,000,000
100,000 A country is listed if it features among the top-5 per population group.
The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on this map do not imply official
endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations.
10 asylum-seekers
UNHCR (pending cases)
Global Trends 2015
sweden
Germany
1 http://www.unhcr.org/558193896.html
2 These numbers have cumulated over a number of years. The figures, unless explicitly
united states Turkeystated, do not only reflect 2015 numbers.
of america
3 http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34131911
4 In line with the BBC, we use the term ‘migrant’ to refer to all people who are on the move who have yet to complete the legal process of claiming asylum. As per
the BBC’s definition this group includes people fleeing war torn countries such as Syria, who are likely to be granted refugee status, as well as people who are
seeking jobs and better lives, who governments are likely to rule are economic migrants.
Managing the refugee and migrant crisis 3
The causes of the Middle East (Syria, Iraq, and Yemen); unemployment and poverty, famine
one in Europe (Ukraine) and three in Asia triggered by climate change, and
mass movement of (Kyrgyzstan, and in several areas of systematic discrimination are all
migrants to Europe Myanmar and Pakistan). Since early 2011, motivators for people to move.11 In fact,
the main reason for the acceleration has the UNHCR reports that in the first five
The number of migrants attempting been the war in Syria which is now the months of 2016, more than 39,000
passage to Europe in 2015 was largely single largest driver of displacement.10 Afghans also made the journey across
unprecedented. According to the the Mediterranean to Greece (UNHCR
UNHCR, Germany has accepted the However, it is important to note that war Questionnaire findings for Afghans in
greatest number of migrants in Europe is not the only driver for migration. Greece, May 2016). This shows that
in absolute terms, with an estimated Other drivers such as political instability people are still traveling long distances
964,574 new migrants in 20155. Of this, or violence in the home country, high as a result of persistent unrest
approximately 484,000 of the migrants
came from Syria6. The UK has made a Figure 3: Asylum claims in Europe 2015
commitment to accept 20,000 Syrian
refugees from UNHCR camps over the
next five years.7 On a per capita basis,
however, Sweden ranks among the most
accepting countries, having taken in
roughly 190,000 refugees, or 2 percent
of the population.8 Figure 3 shows
disproportionate burden sharing among
the European Union (EU) member states.
According to the UNHCR’s annual
Global Trends Report: World at War
(June 2015)9, in the past five years, at
least 15 conflicts have re-erupted or
re-ignited (eight in Africa: Côte d’Ivoire,
Central African Republic, Libya, Mali,
north-eastern Nigeria, Democratic
Republic of Congo, South Sudan and
this year in Burundi); three in the
Understanding the driver is key
to categorising a migrant as
either a refugee or economic
migrant and influences the
decision as to whether an
individual will be afforded
protection under the 1951
Refugee Convention
Source: Eurostat
5 http://qz.com/567469/germany-is-taking-in-more-refugees-in-2015-than-the-us-has-in-the-past-10-years/
6 http://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article149700433/965-000-Fluechtlinge-bis-Ende-November-in-Deutschland.html
7 http://www.parliament.uk/briefing-papers/sn06805.pdf
8 http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/02/10/the-death-of-the-most-generous-nation-on-earth-sweden-syria-refugee-europe/
9 http://unhcr.org/556725e69.html#_ga=1.126912907.702443651.1455545632
10 http://www.unhcr.org/558193896.html
11 http://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/europe-migration-crisis-context-why-now-and-what-next
4 Global Crisis Centre
Understanding the drivers of migration accordance with its values” whilst
is key to categorising a migrant as either putting forward “joint proposals to
a refugee or economic migrant and organise the reception of refugees and a
influences the decision as to whether an fair distribution in Europe” as well as
individual will be afforded protection “converging standards to strengthen the
under the 1951 Refugee Convention.12 European asylum system.”14
However, following through on this
Shifting dynamics in commitment was made difficult by the
finding a resolution unprecedented number of migrants
arriving in Europe, combined with the
The image of Aylan Kurdi13: a young boy
inability of existing asylum systems to
whose body washed up on the shores of
absorb such high volumes. For example,
Turkey became the face of the migrant
the Dublin Regulation of 6 June 2013
crisis in Europe and was a stark reminder
outlines the responsibilities for member
to the world of the growing humanitarian
states in evaluating and determining the
crisis prompted by civil unrest, poverty,
status of asylum applications. This has
famine and war. The image evoked a
now been challenged by overwhelmed
sense of outrage at the perils of migrants
capacity in countries such as Greece
making the dangerous crossing to
and Germany.
Europe and galvanised public opinion
about the migrant crisis. In addition, it
The migrant crisis and its related
increased the international pressure on
debates were further exacerbated by the
European governments to find a solution
terror attacks in Paris in November 2015
respecting international laws and the
which shifted public focus to protecting
rights of migrants, whilst ensuring the
Europe from further terror targets and
safety and security of European borders.
ensuring that sufficient security checks
German Chancellor Angela Merkel and
were built in both at external borders
French President Francois Hollande
and into the processes for dealing with
issued a joint statement subsequent to
asylum claims.
Aylan’s death stating that “the European
Union must act decisively and in
12 http://www.unhcr.org/uk/1951-refugee-convention.html
13 Aylan Kurdi was a 3 year old Syrian child who drowned trying to cross the Mediterranean. Full story can be found on http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/
europe/aylan-kurdi-s-story-how-a-small-syrian-child-came-to-be-washed-up-on-a-beach-in-turkey-10484588.html
14 http://pbs.twimg.com/media/CN-w2XZWoAA5c4U.png
Managing the refugee and migrant crisis 5
The direct result of this was the
Figure 4: The challenges Europe faces are complex
introduction of temporary border
controls by some member states
including France, Germany, Austria,
Slovenia, Sweden, Hungary, Norway15
and Denmark, calling the future of the 1 Successfully caring for and resettling migrants
Schengen Agreement (which stipulates a
zone of twenty-six European countries
abolishing their internal borders and
having a common visa policy, thus
allowing for the unrestricted movement
of people, goods, services and capital)
2 Differentiating between genuine asylum claims and
economic migrants
into question.16 The terror attack in
Belgium in March 2016 and subsequent
attacks in France and Germany has led
to further feelings of insecurity and
instability within Europe, and the 3 Integrating new migrant arrivals into society
roadmap to Schengen (proposed by the
European Commission), which will
require the opening of all internal
borders within the EU by the end of Assessing the infrastructure and ability of the accepting
December 2016, continues to be queried.17 4 countries to deal with the number of refugees and
migrants
The European Commission has emphasised
that the stabilisation of the Schengen
system is critical for the protection of the
free movement principle and for ensuring
that there is no long-term economic 5 Securing funding for humanitarian aid and assistance
provided upon arrival
detriment to the EU economy as a result
of re-establishment of border controls.
For example, 1.7 million workers in the
EU cross a border every day to go to Protecting borders and ensuring the security of nationals
work. The re-introduction of border 6 in the context of unmanaged migration and increasing
threats from terrorism
controls would cost commuters and
other travellers between Euros 1.3 and
5.2 billion in time lost (per annum).18
Developing innovative and advanced technology to help
As Europe collectively struggles to
find a unified solution to the migrant
7 respond more quickly and effectively to the situation on
the ground, in real time
crisis, challenges continue to mount
(see Figure 4) and there are pressures on
making the terms of existing relative
regulations work, due to some member
states acting unilaterally. 8 Responding to the refugee crisis in a way that preserves
the values and legitimacy of the EC and its member states
15 Norway is not a member of the EU but is part of the Schengen Agreement
16 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-34826438
17 http://ec.europa.eu/dgs/home-affairs/what-we-do/policies/borders-and-visas/schengen/docs/communication-back-to-schengen-roadmap_en.pdf
18 http://ec.europa.eu/dgs/home-affairs/what-we-do/policies/borders-and-visas/schengen/docs/communication-back-to-schengen-roadmap_en.pdf
6 Global Crisis Centre
Others, such as Germany, initially
subscribed to an open door policy for
migrants, though this decision has been
criticised for acting as a migration pull
factor. Divisions between member states
have deepened, despite the threat of the
EU losing credibility as a political and
economic leader. The EU-Turkey
Agreement, however, though not
without its critics, was hailed as a major
milestone for the EU in presenting a
coherent, strategic response to the
migrant crisis.
Future projections:
understanding and
evaluating the crisis
In order to understand the migrant crisis
and work towards finding a common
solution, it is important to understand
the reasons for the largest migration to
Europe since the Second World War. In
the following sections, we assess and
evaluate the response of European
governments and key stakeholders,
including the difficulties that prevent
the early resolution of the crisis.
We also analyse the push and pull
factors and the impact (both positive
and negative) that the migrant crisis will
have from the perspective of governments
(national and local), the public, and
companies operating global businesses
within Europe and elsewhere. This is a
dynamic and fluid situation and
governments and business need to
adapt accordingly.
Managing the refugee and migrant crisis 7
What drives the movement of people
globally?
Migration is not a new Migration can be differentiated as and conflicts, which can lead to seeking
phenomenon. History demonstrates managed and unmanaged, voluntary or asylum in other countries. However it
that migration has existed for forced. This paper will focus primarily can also be influenced by pull factors.
centuries as trade relations, the on forced and unmanaged migration
expansion of empires, wars, and the challenges they pose to Many of these risks and opportunities
persecution and political turmoil government policies, together with the are in some way economic, but may
risks and opportunities they create for overlap with issues of humanitarian
have triggered human movement
private sector actors.19 concern, such as violence, war, disease,
within regions, countries and
resource scarcity and the right to re-join
beyond. Migration is a global Managed migration refers to relocation to families and communities. Migration
phenomenon that pertains to a a host country in a planned manner such can be facilitated or discouraged by
broader scope of the population as through quotas or visas. policy, and policy often attempts to
than what the media typically classify migration. This makes the
refer to as ‘migrants’. Unmanaged migration refers to migration definition of ‘migrant,’ ‘refugee’ or
that the host country has not planned or ‘asylum seeker’ difficult to objectively
accounted for. determine. The following section
highlights some of the key challenges
Voluntary migration means relocation with labelling people who migrate, and
according to personal desires. offers a broader understanding of the
push and pull factors that drive global
Forced migration is driven by push migratory flows.
factors, namely, risks, social pressures
19 Overseas Development Institute: https://www.odi.org/sites/odi.org.uk/files/odi-assets/publications-opinion-files/9913.pdf
8 Global Crisis CentreGovernments that are net migrant trafficking) simply to continue along
Problems with labels
receivers sometimes engage in some their journey. Consequently, forced
A number of terms are used to migration sustains black markets,
form of international policy to reduce
describe those who migrate: migrant, underground economies and criminal
push factors, usually by funding
refugee, asylum seeker, etc. While networks given its reliance on using
multilateral organisations within the
some terms such as refugee and non-standard means of earning a living
UN or NGOs that focus on mitigating the
asylum seeker have a basis in legal or crossing borders. Children, youth and
effects of war or conflicts, famine,
frameworks/agreements others do women remain particularly vulnerable,
drought or human rights abuses. For
not. However, they all have cultural since they might not enjoy legal
example, UNHCR provides relief to
and political associations that can be protection or access to support networks
conflict zones such as Syria, but also in
just as impactful as legal definitions. that would mitigate the risks of
neighbouring countries such as Lebanon
While ‘migrant’ is arguably the exploitation. Traumas associated with
or Jordan in order to help those
broadest term and includes refugees migration may also pose challenges to
countries contain and care for refugee
and asylum seekers, Non- eventual settlement in a country, and
populations. Push factors can also occur
Governmental Organisations (NGOs) may require additional services such as
in places where migrants have relocated,
have criticised the media for using counselling to integrate successfully.
where issues such as poor working
‘migrant’ as a derogatory term that
opportunities and uncertain legal status
plays into the hands of anti-
immigration politics. Moreover, the
push them to continue their journey on
to Europe and elsewhere.
Pull factors
label ‘economic migrant’ is used – for Pull factors are incentives for migrants
example, in the EU – to assert that a to journey to a certain place and include
There is also increasing evidence that
migrant has no humanitarian basis for working opportunities, benefits, ease of
push factors have complex and
claiming asylum and eventual travel, the possibility of permanent
overlapping relationships. For example,
settlement, instead justifying settlement and the opportunity to
many EU countries attempt to
expulsion because the basis for the reconnect with family and community
differentiate ‘economic migrants’ from
individual’s migration is rooted in the networks. Pull factors are often created
asylum seekers, although conflict and
desire to improve their standard of inadvertently by governments. However,
economic deterioration are often linked
living from an economic perspective. those governments also often directly
in ways that do not always explicitly
feature human rights violations. More address and try to minimise pull factors,
Definitions of a refugee or asylum namely by tightening border controls,
recently, climate change has been
seeker can also differ according to cutting benefits, restricting settlement
identified as a broad force behind other
government and policy acceptance/ opportunities and working rights.
migratory push factors and this is likely
interpretation. Even within the EU,
to increase the numbers of migrants in
member states have not fully In the past year, EU countries that had
the years ahead. In fact, the United
harmonised their lists of ‘safe attracted the most migrants have made
States National Academy of Sciences has
countries,” or countries that are an effort to reduce pull factors, such as
identified the extended drought in Syria
deemed compliant with the 1951 cuts to benefits in Germany, quotas on
between 2007 and 2010, which was
Refugee Convention, and the policy migrant numbers in Austria and
exacerbated by climate change, as one of
actions which those lists entail. tightened border controls in Sweden.
the factors that led to the Syrian conflict.20
Push factors Humanitarian issues play a unique role Despite the EU’s commitments to human
in the dynamics of forced migration as and refugee rights, numerous Central
Push factors include the numerous both push factors and also consequences and Eastern European countries have
reasons why migrants might be of push factors. Involuntary migrants built walls and tightened border controls
incentivised to leave their homes, such are arguably some of the most in an effort to prevent or divert migration.
as humanitarian concerns (including vulnerable individuals. Forced In some countries, bureaucratic inertia
conflicts), overpopulation and migration is often triggered by in processing asylum requests and the
destruction of the local environment, humanitarian concerns, but these detention-like condition of holding
wage stagnation, or job scarcity. These concerns continue to affect migrants facilities has indirectly discouraged
are differentiated from pull factors, while they travel and throughout the migration to the country.
which are reasons for which migrants process of settlement in a new country;
might choose to migrate to a certain they are often forced to resort to
country, region, or city. unlawful practices and criminal
networks (i.e. smuggling and human
20 United States National Academy of Sciences, 2015. http://www.pnas.org/content/112/11/3241.abstract
Managing the refugee and migrant crisis 9International cooperation and
considerations for governments
Government As well as the Convention and Protocol, not return refugees to a territory where
there are other important instruments his or her life or freedom is threatened
responsibilities (such as the Dublin Regulation in the EU (the principle of non-refoulement). They
The UN 1951 Refugee Convention and the European Human Rights also establish cooperation procedures
Convention) outlining government with the UNHCR.
(the ‘Convention’) and its
responsibilities. However many of these
subsequent 1967 Protocol (‘the
instruments are specific to certain With the Convention and Protocol in
Protocol’) are the most important
countries and regions rather than global mind, this section outlines the
legal documents setting out in nature. Nearly 150 countries responsibilities of governments, and the
government responsibilities worldwide are signatories to the political challenges and opportunities
towards refugees globally. Convention and the Protocol, although that governments face when dealing
fewer have fully implemented them into with asylum seekers and refugees, both
law. These documents set out the in terms of formulating and
definition of refugees (or asylum seekers) implementing policy.
and a requirement that governments do
10 Global Crisis CentreBureaucratic duties as Russia, Ukraine, Pakistan and the Government
Since the Convention and Protocol Western Balkan countries. Such
require signatory countries to hear an agreements require the establishment of co-ordination is key
asylum appeal, refugees have the right police and judicial cooperation, which Migration policy inevitably requires
to remain in a country in which they presents certain challenges. coordination at the local, national and
have submitted an asylum claim until international levels, as well as between
their appeal is deemed invalid. This Partial compliance governments, NGOs, and private sector
leads to bureaucratic obligations, In practice, compliance with the actors (discussed in subsequent sections).
notably to register applicants, process Convention and Protocol is not always This is most evident in Europe, as
asylum requests, provide shelter and strictly observed. This poses policy governments strive to harmonise
working opportunities and sustained challenges at a global level, as the national and EU-wide migration policy.
communication until a legal decision on fragmentation of global migration policy However, areas such as common border
the application is undertaken. leads to a scenario of unilateralism policies and security cooperation have
based on political and economic often been reactive rather than proactive.
Compliance has proven to be costly, interests, rather than collaborative
particularly at moments of acute burden sharing. A notable example of National politics can often hamper
migratory flows. In Germany, for partial implementation of the international cooperation, as leaders
example, the cost of refugee care and Convention is one country that, until refuse to take an active role in managing
acceptance in 2015 was roughly 10 early 2016, only awarded refugee status regional issues out of domestic political
billion Euros.21 Greece, unable to to migrants from Europe, while granting concerns. This was the case even before
shoulder similar types of costs, was Syrians a special status and refusing to the EU’s migration crisis reached a
considered between 2013 and 2015 to implement any status for other common crescendo in the summer of 2015, as EU
be exempt from EU-wide burden refugee migrant nationalities, such as Iraq leaders either ignored or failed to act
sharing initiatives. For countries that are or Afghanistan. pre-emptively on warnings from NGOs
part of the EU’s Schengen Agreement, of an impending surge in migration.
asylum and border policy must be In order to combat this, in July 2016 the Additionally, the EU’s lack of common
carried out at a regional level and European Commission presented a asylum policy has also led to other
harmonised to be effective. proposal for the reform of the Common countries feeling the effects of one
European Asylum System22 to the country’s pull factors, for example when
Third countries may also have European Parliament. The proposal is to German Chancellor Angela Merkel
obligations to each other on refugee replace the Asylum Procedures Directive23 declared “refugees welcome,” some
issues: for example, a readmission with a new Regulation. Having a perceived this as contributing to the
agreement signed between two countries Regulation, instead of a Directive would migrant crisis as they felt that this sent
allows refugees that have arrived in the mean mandatory and harmonised an incorrect message to migrants, and
first country and travelled onto a second application by all EU members. The led to a large influx of migration across
country to be returned to the first purpose of the reform is to move numerous EU countries, including
country by the second. Within the EU, towards a fully efficient, fair and Greece, Macedonia, Serbia, Croatia,
this obligation is embodied in the Dublin humane asylum policy to ensure asylum Hungary, Slovenia, Austria, and Germany.
Regulation, which requires asylum seekers are treated in an equal and
seekers to lodge a request in the first appropriate manner by all EU members.
country of arrival; additionally, there are
bilateral readmission agreements
between the EU and other parties such
21 http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/kosten-fuer-fluechtlinge-auf-zehn-milliarden-euro-geschaetzt-a-1051600.html
22 http://ec.europa.eu/dgs/home-affairs/what-we-do/policies/asylum/index_en.htm
23 http://ec.europa.eu/dgs/home-affairs/what-we-do/policies/asylum/common-procedures/index_en.htm
Managing the refugee and migrant crisis 11Migration policy in
Europe
In recent years, migration policy in
Europe has largely been reactive rather
than proactive. Even before the migrant
crisis, inter-EU border and asylum
policies such as Schengen and the
Dublin Regulation were challenged,
given that they lacked the parallel
institutions of an inter-EU border
guard and harmonised data sharing, or
‘smart borders.’24
The Schengen Area, which includes 26
European countries in the European
Economic Area (EEA) was established in
1995 and aimed to remove obstacles to
trade and the free movement of people
by abolishing border controls and visa
regimes between contiguous countries,
also for people arriving from a third
country outside the zone. However, in
the past year, the Schengen area has
experienced disruptions and the
reinstatement of temporary border
controls to deal with a variety of
challenges, from terrorist-related
security threats to the migrant crisis.
but does not have effective provisions to schemes; safe-guard those at risk such
While Schengen countries have shared ensure countries’ compliance. Since the as unaccompanied or separated children;
in the benefits of abolished borders, they onset of the migrant crisis, EU leaders and develop connected systems for
are now beginning to feel the have sought to amend the Dublin arrival country registration centres to
consequences of the lack of protective Regulation with a method of redistributing enable refugees to request asylum across
measures guaranteed in the system, asylum seekers to relieve overwhelmed different EU countries. UNHCR’s proposals
specifically common policies in security, border countries such as Greece and Italy. make clear that equitable sharing of
migration and border management responsibility is key to bringing about a
which are necessary to secure a zone This was reflected in the six point plan managed and orderly solution.25
without internal borders. For example, proposed by UNHCR High
the perpetrators of the Paris attacks in Commissioner Grandi in March 2016 to While the existing EU-wide policies are
November 2015 were able to organise in help EU Member States manage and unlikely to collapse entirely, they will
Belgium out of view of French police stabilize the refugee situation. The plan continue to experience stress while EU
before crossing the border to carry out included six key points: relocation of leaders are only able to incrementally
the attack. The Dublin Regulation is asylum seekers out of first arrival ‘hot amend them. In the meantime,
another feature of migration policy spots’ such as Greece and Italy; support substantial progress on border policy,
which does not necessarily address for Greece in processing and caring for such as an EU-wide border guard and
corresponding border controls or refugees; compliance with EU asylum ‘smart borders’ are underway, in part
inter-governmental accountability. It directives; managed solutions for safe motivated by Brexit and the desire for
establishes that asylum seekers must be and legal travel for refugees to countries the remaining 27 EU member states to
processed in the first country of arrival, of destination such as labour mobility deepen security cooperation.
24 http://ec.europa.eu/dgs/home-affairs/what-we-do/policies/borders-and-visas/smart-borders/index_en.htm
25 http://www.unhcr.org/uk/news/briefing/2016/3/56d96de86/unhcr-6-steps-towards-solving-refugee-situation-europe.html
12 Global Crisis CentreConsiderations for Political Political challenges
governments opportunities In addition to opportunities, the current
surge in migration has created a number
In accordance with the requirements of Usually an unplanned phenomenon, of political challenges. Rather than
the Convention and Protocol, states migration presents a variety of political perceiving the macro economic benefits
often provide services to migrants, opportunities to governments. Migration of migration, some electorates tend to
namely those who are in the process of can present demographic solutions to see refugees as a threat to national
applying for asylum or have already ageing populations, boost growth, and culture, the welfare state, job security,
secured refugee status. In theory, foster greater cooperation across regions societal harmony and the common
refugees often have access to the same and countries to address migratory fabric of the EU. Moreover, an increase
services as the citizens of a country. issues. Migration can provide economic in anti-immigration media reporting
These services include some kind of benefits, both through adding makes the messaging around such
legal status, health care, education and demographic diversity and boosting platforms difficult to disseminate.
employment opportunities. For competitiveness, as well as boosting
example, according to the UNHCR consumption, provided that a degree of The politics of migration have shown the
Weekly Report of 20 October 2016, integration is ensured by the state. EU’s weakness to drive policy on issues
approximately 700 refugee children Germany has historically benefited from that affect society at the micro level, as
from camps in Greece started school migration and stands to profit in the electorates turn away from collective
that same month with 45 classes future as well. Waves of Turkish migrants burden sharing. This, in turn, has
tailored to refugee children at 16 compensated for a deficiency of manual undermined EU-wide consensus, and
primary and secondary public schools. labourers in the post-war decades in has also dovetailed with attempts by
Working closely with the Greek Ministry Germany, and migrants from Eastern populist politicians to disrupt EU-level
of Education, the UNHCR supported the Europe and the Middle East might offset politics by asserting national referenda,
provision of interpretation services. the negative economic trends of an as has been the case with the UK’s EU
ageing population over the coming membership referendum or the Dutch
However, gaining access to such benefits decades if there is successful integration. referendum on the association agreement
can be hampered by bureaucratic with Ukraine. More broadly, there is
obstacles, language barriers, an inability The migrant crisis in Europe has concern that unmanaged migration
to secure stable residence or the prompted important discussions on undermines the belief in the European
introduction of government-led policies border policy and greater security. This project, instead fostering xenophobia
to constrain access. This final constraint is despite the broader challenge of and tendencies towards closed borders
has been a more active factor in Europe developing an EU-wide asylum policy, as and protective governments.
in the wake of the migrant crisis, as EU countries develop independent,
countries seek to reduce pull factors unilateral solutions to the issues.
while still maintaining their Moreover, the crisis has compelled
commitment to upholding international greater cooperation between the EU and
refugee law. For example, some EU third party countries and regions. For
Migration can present
countries have imposed a freeze on example, during the Valetta Conference demographic solutions to
family reunification settlement schemes in Malta, late 2015, the EU provided ageing populations, boost
in order to deal with current capacity development-related incentives for growth, and foster greater
issues while also discouraging sub-Saharan African countries in cooperation across regions
migration. Some EU countries have also exchange for cooperation on migration
and countries.
sought to make benefits less liquid, for issues. Although advances since the
example by replacing cash benefits with conference have been limited,
services in kind, such as credit towards governments have substantial
housing or healthcare. opportunities for engagement.
Managing
Managing the
the refugee
refugee and migrant crisis 13Economic impacts and the role of business
Economic impacts While this paper provides a high level Fiscal policy and
understanding of the economic public finances
Global migration presents a range environment created by the global First and most pressing, the ongoing
of opportunities and challenges to migrant crisis, it is important to note migrant crisis compels increased public
businesses. It does so by that each economic impact will be felt by spending. In many European countries,
influencing economic dynamics at migrant-hosting countries to different this fiscal dynamic is viewed as a drain
the country and regional levels degrees – depending on a multitude of on host governments resulting from a
across three main areas: fiscal factors including geography, policy rapid increase in welfare payments and
policy and public finances, labour preference, and demographics – and broader humanitarian assistance
market supply and demand, and across different time horizons. For associated with reception and initial
new commercial opportunities. example, unmanaged migration will support services. This is particularly
This section will describe each of affect public finances significantly and problematic in countries experiencing
these economic dynamics and immediately, generating both fiscal overwhelmed capacity. Governments
constraints as well as stimulus. Labour facing a surge in unmanaged migration
assess how they shape the role of
markets, however, may not process the will be forced to increase public
business in addressing the global
full effects of unmanaged migration for spending in areas such as food, shelter,
migrant crisis.
the next few years, given varying policy health, and basic income support. Key
considerations around migrant components of the resettlement and
integration and resident workers. The integration process are education and
impacts of this can be interpreted both language training. Governments will
positively and negatively. increasingly shoulder the up-front
expenditures associated with these
14 Global Crisis Centreservices, as well as systems for Labour market supply up about 0.4% of the EEA labour force.
processing asylum claims and enforcing and demand In Germany, a country commonly cited in
returns. In countries suffering In the medium to long term, global high demand for labour, asylum seekers
overcapacity, additional financing will migration will increasingly shape labour are expected to make up around 1% of
likely be necessary for security markets, influencing employment and the work force by the end of 2016.28
purposes, such as policing and border GDP dynamics more broadly. As stated
control. In the long term, countries that previously, migration can offer
see the unsuccessful integration of demographic solutions to ageing
migrants could experience heightened populations and is likely to enhance Government financing will boost
neighbourhood crime and instability demographic diversity in workforces.
(due to any tension between migrant
aggregate demand, creating
Though the entry of migrants and
groups and native populations), and refugees into employment will generate
stimulus in the economy.
disenfranchisement with civil society, downward pressures on wages and
eventually mandating more police inflation, this will likely be compensated
spending by governments. in part by the fiscal expansion.
The necessary increase in public spending The impact of unmanaged migration
in response to the migrant crisis will (i.e. migration that a host country has
generate budgetary constraints across not planned or accounted for) on labour
governments. The consideration by markets will occur gradually and over
some countries of offering a basic an extended period. This is due, in part,
unconditional income without to the varying conditions across
additional welfare or benefits, could countries for accessing labour markets
offer a potential solution for relieving during the period of asylum claim.
such fiscal pressures. Viewed positively, While the policy environment of some
government financing will also function countries prevents asylum seekers from
to boost aggregate demand, creating working at all whilst their claim is being
stimulus in the economy. The processed, asylum seekers in other
International Monetary Fund (IMF) countries can access the formal labour
projects that, relative to the baseline, market almost immediately or face
the current surge in asylum seekers will significant waiting periods. In many
lift the EU’s Gross Domestic Product cases, limited language training and a
(GDP) by about 0.09% and 0.13% for lack of documentation proving migrants’
2016 and 2017 respectively.26 This is qualifications and approval for
largely due to an increase in aggregate employment exacerbate this waiting
demand in the European economy, period and prolong migrants’ entry into
which the OECD estimates at roughly labour markets, so increasing public
0.1-0.2% of GDP in 2016 and 2017.27 spending. In the EEA for example, by the
end of 2016 higher bound estimates
indicate that asylum seekers will make
26 https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/sdn/2016/sdn1602.pdf
27 https://www.oecd.org/migration/How-will-the-refugee-surge-affect-the-European-economy.pdf
28 https://www.oecd.org/migration/How-will-the-refugee-surge-affect-the-European-economy.pdf
Managing the refugee and migrant crisis 15The speed of migrants’ integration into a influence the successful integration of effects in Europe have fuelled the
host country’s labour market, the extent migrants into labour markets and the development of informal economies.
to which their skills complement or positive economic impacts of their This is largely a consequence of
overlap with those of the resident participation over time. refugees’ lack of work permits,
workforce, and their contribution to offering a supply shock to informal
production (or labour market New commercial opportunities labour markets.30
performance) will determine the With an increase in fiscal spending, global
long-run impact of unmanaged migration generates important commercial A sometimes perceived lack of human or
migration on employment dynamics and opportunities. The resettlement and innovative capacity on the part of
national GDPs. This relationship touches integration of refugees has, and will governments, alongside a widespread
on two key challenges: continue to boost consumption, mostly desire of individuals and organisations
through food sales and other household across sectors to work toward the
Perceptions of the resident native goods, and also in real estate (providing common good, creates space for
labour force temporary and permanent housing entrepreneurial activity. This is also true
As unmanaged migrants are options for newly-arrived individuals).29 for Public Private Partnerships (PPPs)
increasingly integrated into the This is particularly evident in countries and independent private sector actors
workforces of host countries, resident like Turkey, where many migrants arrive which can contribute solutions to the
native labour market participants could with cash in hand. However, the current issues most pressing.31 We elaborate on
fear that migrants are taking their jobs. crisis in the Middle East and its spillover this point in the subsequent section.
Labour market performance of
unmanaged migrants
In Europe and other developed economies,
unmanaged migrants often present
weaker labour market performance –
defined by participation rates,
employment rates, and wages – than
resident native labour market
participants. This is particularly true in
the period immediately following a
migrants’ arrival in the host country,
and especially for unmanaged female
migrants, refugees, and unmanaged
migrants from less developed economies
or with different language skills.
Businesses face a unique challenge in
promoting an environment of cultural
understanding for refugees and
unmanaged migrants, as they seek to
enhance the performance of their
employees. The extent to which
businesses and host governments
recognise these challenges and develop
policies for counteracting them,
alongside the increased utilisation of
skills-job matching platforms, will
29 World Bank, 2015. The Impact of Syrian Refugees on the Turkish Labour Market. http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/20
16/02/09/090224b08415e3b5/3_0/Rendered/PDF/laborThe0impact0of00Turkish0labor0market.pdf
30 Frontier Strategy Group. Europe’s Migrant Crisis: What to Expect in 2016 and Beyond. http://blog.frontierstrategygroup.com/2016/06/europe/
31 Wharton, 2015. Europe’s Migrant Crisis: Balancing the Risks with Long-term Gains. http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/europes-migrant-crisis-balancing-
the-risks-with-long-term-gains/
16 Global Crisis CentreThe role of business response strategy. They can create
operational definitions for each agency’s
Global migration and the migrant crisis core mandate and responsibilities, and
can generate a variety of opportunities ultimately, work with government bodies
for businesses. to develop an overarching framework for
refugee and migrant response.
Government support
As the global migrant crisis and Intra-departmental organisation and
unmanaged migratory flows have programme management
expanded and evolved, many Governments around the world are
governments around the world have facing increased pressure to provide
struggled to respond to the influx. The resources in responding to the global
demand for humanitarian assistance in migrant crisis. Historically, many
the short-term and institutional change countries developed ad hoc solutions to
in the long-term have highlighted these pressures, as political mandates to
capacity and organisational constraints do so ebbed and flowed. However, as the
that private sector actors can help to current crisis appears more protracted
alleviate in two primary ways: and public demands increase, there is a
critical need for more sustainable
Inter-departmental coordination and solutions. One such need is internal
strategic planning organisation and efficiency frameworks,
In many countries, different government which businesses are well suited to
departments or agencies manage provide, given their advanced programme
One such need is internal management capacity. Through the
different aspects of the migrant arrival
organisation and efficiency and resettlement process. The performance of organisational
frameworks, which businesses difficulties of cross-agency coordination assessments and the development of
are well suited to provide, given pose unique challenges, and can create more advanced project management
their advanced programme inefficiencies at a systemic level. This is systems, businesses can offer solutions
particularly problematic in environments to orchestrate processes and increase
management capacity.
where the relevant departments lack efficiencies within government
clarity on their specific mandate and the departments and agencies. Such
complementary services offered by other solutions would be particularly valuable
agencies. Through in-depth advisory and in areas such as refugee admissions and
inter-agency coordination, businesses processing, where many countries face
can assist municipal and national severe capacity constraints.
governments with their strategic
analysis and planning objectives. They Corporate social responsibility
can also assist in contract management, Sustainable solutions to the migrant
critical for the management of large crisis and unmanaged global migration,
financial flows required for refugee more broadly, require engagement from
response. In areas such as coordination organisations across the public and
between the central government and private sectors. Businesses, specifically,
local authorities, businesses can play a can also extend their engagement
critical function in assisting local policy beyond the immediate crisis through
makers on the rights and regulations Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR)
associated with the country’s refugee initiatives in key areas, including
response, often determined at the employment, education, healthcare,
national level. Businesses can help and housing.
governments identify the risks and
opportunities inherent in their refugee
Managing the refugee and migrant crisis 17Filling the skills gap Public Private Partnerships Skills and employment mapping
One of the primary concerns of business (PPPs) Seeking to promote the successful
executives, according to the 19th Annual Unmanaged migration and the reception integration of migrants and refugees into
PwC CEO survey, is the availability of of refugees also puts pressure on labour markets and local communities,
key skills.32 Migration has a significant government and non-government businesses can contribute to the
influence on labour markets, and the agencies to provide basic human development of mature assessment tools
impact of migration on a country’s GDP services such as healthcare and housing. for skills and employment mapping.
is affected by the extent to which Businesses can play a key role in Such tools can be used to match the
migrants and refugees are effectively providing these services both through backgrounds, skills, and language
integrated into a country’s workforce. funding and also by engaging in PPPs profiles of migrants with a country’s
Businesses play a key role in this with the relevant government agencies. labour demands to foster an environment
relationship through their willingness to In many cases businesses can most conducive to personal wellbeing
accept migrant workers. Ideally this is supplement a government or NGO’s role and economic health.
done through the hosting of internships in providing these services by
and trainees; ultimately recruiting developing independent solutions.
migrants as full-time employees.
However, a frequent challenge faced by Innovation
migrants and refugees in gaining
The role of business in innovating
employment is successfully matching
solutions to issues surrounding the global
their skills and/or gaining a work permit
migrant crisis is critical. Looking beyond
for the labour needed by the host country.
technology, which is addressed in the
subsequent section, businesses can be
Businesses can strive to fill this gap in a
integral in developing new initiatives
number of ways, specifically through the
that aim to mitigate the negative effects
hosting of language and skills-based
of the migrant crisis and promote the
training programmes or the sponsorship
economic strength of countries and the
of learning opportunities for migrants
wellbeing of individuals. For example:
and refugees at local universities and
educational institutions. This will serve
the dual purpose of helping businesses Project management and
to absorb migrants in need of jobs, and information sharing
helping countries to grow their labour Responding to issues associated with
force, a critical need in places such as governmental and agency capacity
Germany, Italy and Japan, which are constraints, businesses can innovate new
experiencing significant systems for programme management and
population ageing. information sharing. They can drive the
development of standardised fact bases,
In addition, the subsequent combination containing both quantitative and
of low managed resettlement rates to qualitative data points on global migratory
desired countries and more refugees in flows and refugee profiles, in an effort to
border host countries living in create common understanding across
communities and cities whilst awaiting sectors and agencies, and also to support
resettlement, can lead to crowded government initiatives around border
conditions with refugees perhaps controls and national security.
working informally, exposed to
exploitation. Here international business
can help support these communities as
governments look for new approaches
with new and different actors.
32 https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/ceo-survey/2016/landing-page/pwc-19th-annual-global-ceo-survey.pdf
18 Global Crisis CentreThe role of technology and digital
innovation
Technology plays a critical role in Typically, governments and international Technology solutions
the refugee and migrant crisis, organisations rely on end-to-end
through the innovation and enterprise technology solutions – for governments and
provision of tools and solutions to hardware, software and infrastructure international
governments, private sector and for database management,
other international organisations. communication between agencies, organisations
security at and inside borders, identity Technology companies, both enterprise
verification and tracking, strategic and consumer focused, provide
analysis and planning, and aid and hardware, software and infrastructure
funds distribution. to governments and international
organisations that maintain databases of
Some consumer focused technology incoming asylum seekers and migrants.
companies use mobile phone apps to
provide solutions to issues faced by The three main IT systems that the
refugees at a more micro level, such as technology sector has helped create in
information sharing, housing, safety, aid Europe are the Eurodac, the Schengen
and fund raising, healthcare, integration Information System and the Visa
and jobs matching. Information System (See Figure 5).
Managing the refugee and migrant crisis 19Given the sheer number of refugees, Addressing challenges in information Biometrics
data points and technical capacity management and sharing across agencies Breakthroughs in biometrics—finger
constraints, information management and organisations requires collaboration printing, facial recognition and iris
remains one of the biggest challenges. as well as immense technological scanning - play a key role in identity
Additionally, most databases cannot capacity that can process and match verification, border controls and
easily communicate with other information across billions of queries in tracking. With the help of biometrics,
databases in different countries. a timely, secure and efficient manner. governments and international
Information on asylum seekers often sits organisations can establish unique
in silos and is ineffective in piecing Connecting systems is also dependent identities of asylum seekers and
together a cohesive picture at the time of on strong international networks as refugees, address the issue of lack of
decision making. Furthermore, technical databases are invariably related to, and documentation for asylum seekers, and
standards and platforms are not always housed in, individual countries, especially also allay security concerns by enabling
consistent across organisations and in the EU. Additionally in remote border identification and tracking of those
agencies within and across countries, areas, technology infrastructure and inside the host countries’ borders.
complicating the linking of systems. online connectivity is generally not as
Therefore, to address the technical strong, so access to reliable information Biometrics, through the establishment
challenges, governments, along with the is not always possible. This can hamper of unique IDs, such as those developed
private sector need to work together to border guards to be able to cross-check by the Unique Identification Authority of
enable the linking up of systems, or identities and entry-exit or criminal India (UIDAI)33, can help with
perhaps create a new, centralised, records of incoming asylum seekers on a disbursement of aid directly to refugees
all-encompassing database on asylum real-time basis. and undercut corruption and fraud.
seekers, immigrants and visitors.
With the current Syrian crisis, iris scans
are often used to establish the identity of
refugees and their biometric
information is encoded into aid cards
Figure 5: The three main IT systems the technology sector has helped create equipped with digital encoders and
in Europe: vouchers they receive. In the Middle
East, iris scanners are increasingly
appearing in retail shops that accept
refugees’ aid cards and vouchers in
exchange for necessities. These
1 Eurodac: centralised EU database that collects and
processes the digitalised fingerprints of asylum seekers identifiers also allow consumption and
behavioural patterns to be monitored
and forecasted. In some countries such
as Lebanon, digital cards and vouchers
can be used to withdraw cash from
Schengen Information System (SIS II): the largest
Automatic Teller Machines (ATMs).
2 information system for public security and law
enforcement cooperation in Europe
Visa Information System (VIS): a system that allows
3 Schengen states to share visa data for those who visit or
move throughout the Schengen area.
33 http://uidai.gov.in/
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