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LATIN AMERICA: POLITICS,
ECONOMY AND SOCIETY IN 2013
BARCELONA BEIJING BOGOTA BUENOS AIRES LIMA LISBON MADRID MEXICO PANAMA QUITO RIO DE JANEIRO SÃO PAULO SANTO DOMINGOCONTENTS Prologue 3 Political and electoral panorama in Latin America (2013-2016) The Latin America of the three “Cs”: Continuism, Centrism and middle Classes 5 Audiovisual Overview of Latin America Concentration and technological renewal 16 The protests are here to stay: Social change and mobilisation of citizens in Latin America 35 Overview of Latin American press The pre-Internet boom 51 The Latin American radio panorama The future of radio in Latin America: a new revival 67 LLORENTE & CUENCA 79
Prologue Latin America is currently going through a good period accompanied by the development and consolidation of the new emerging middle classes. These are demanding that their governments provide the guarantees and means to effectively exercise their rights and they want their share of the gains from economic progress. Although it is common to talk about Latin America as if it were a homogeneous region in terms of its political, economic and social situation, the reality is that this region is anything but homoge- neous. The different economic and social situations, the distinct political junctures and the diverse operating environments for com- panies and financial institutions are, among others, factors that lead to the diversity that characterises Latin American countries. That is why we need to look more closely at Latin America, exami- ning each of the features that make these countries unique. In all of this, we need to take into account the creation of new blocks that, like the Pacific Alliance, have an impact on the current situation and influence future expectations in terms of the political and economic development of the region, as well as shaping the strategic international situation. The next few years will be decisive for the future of the region, firstly given the “electoral rally” that will take place between now and 2016, which will determine the new political panorama of the region. Given current trends, it seems that the political situation in Latin America over the next three years will be marked by con- tinuity, centrism and the growing importance of the middle class. In addition, we are also seeing in Latin America a revolution in the emergence and use of the Information and Communication Techno- logies (ICTs) and this is proving to be a catalyst for communication becoming a key factor in the cultural development and economic growth of the nations. So, and in contrast to the crisis in the press in Europe and the Uni- ted Sates, Latin America is currently experiencing a boom in the readership of the written press.
Similarly, the audiovisual sector in Latin America has not remai-
ned on the margin of these transformations and it has followed the
trends being seen globally. Phenomena such as technological deve-
lopment, the increase in the emerging classes and their purchasing
power and the fragmentation of the markets are what characterise
the audiovisual media sector in the region today.
The same is true for radio. Thanks to the growth of the new technolo-
gies, the radio sector in Latin America is experiencing a rejuvenation
which is also leading to the appearance of new radio stations, such
as those broadcasting over the Internet. Once again, the fragmen-
ted nature of the audience is leading to new strategies for broad-
casting content.
All of these processes are taking place in an environment dominated by
the development of the emerging classes, who have become the dri-
ving force behind social change on the continent and who, in some ca-
ses, are making their voices heard in protest against the lack of public
services and infrastructures which, in their view, should be provided by
the state. To date the governments have proved themselves incapable
of channelling these collective demands and responding to them.
In short, Latin America is currently experiencing a period of change
and the only way to understand this reality is to look at the region
from a multidisciplinary perspective.
This summary includes some of the decisive political, economic and
social issues affecting Latin America in 2013. We must be aware of
these, and the differences between the countries, if we hope to
gain a thorough understanding of this region.
José Antonio Llorente
Founding Partner and ChairmanPolitical and electoral panorama
in Latin America (2013-2016)
The Latin America of the three “Cs”:
Continuism, Centrism and middle Classes
Madrid, june 2013POLITICAL AND ELECTORAL PANORAMA IN LATIN AMERICA (2013-2016)
THE LATIN AMERICA OF THE THREE “CS”: CONTINUISM, CENTRISM AND MIDDLE CLASSES
1. INTRODUCTION 1. INTRODUCTION
2. DEVELOPMENT
3. RE-ELECTIONIST TRENDS IN THE Between 2013 and 2016 most of the countries in Latin America will
REGION (2013-16) renew their executive and legislature. This electoral “rally” will be a
4. CONCLUSIONS good time to assess the political dynamics of the region, analysing in
particular two phenomena:
• Discover the predominant political tendency in the region, after
the “sway to the left” between 2002 and 2008 and the revival of
the centre right candidates between 2009 and 2012.
• And study re-electionism as a regional phenomenon that reveals
a growing hyper-presidentialism in most Latin America countries.
The elections in Ecuador in February 2013 and in Paraguay and
Venezuela in April marked the beginning of a new Latin American
election cycle that will end in 2016, by which time 17 of the 18
countries will have held their presidential elections (Mexico is the
only country with elections after that year, in 2018).
It is a decisive four-year period, therefore, during which we will find
out how strong the “XXI century socialism” is without Hugo Chávez,
observe the progress of the reformist left in South America and check
the strength of the centre right options in Mexico, Central America,
Colombia and Chile.
Ww uphold in this report that politics in Latin America is currently
marked by three “Cs”: the predominance of centrist political outlooks
(centre left and centre right) combined with the stagnation of more
radical positions; the continuism of governments in power thanks to
the excellent economic situation and constant growth since 2003 –
except only in 2009-; and the emergence of new, heterogeneous
middle classes in the region with greater purchasing power (and
borrowing capacity), which also explains the continuist tendency and
centrist positions.
ELECTION CALENDAR 2013-16
2013 Presidential elections in Ecuador, Paraguay and Venezuela (already held in these three
countries) and in Honduras and Chile
2014 Presidential elections in Brazil, Colombia, Bolivia, Uruguay, El Salvador, Panama and
Costa Rica
2015 Presidential elections in Argentina, Guatemala and Nicaragua
2016 Presidential elections in Peru and the Dominican Republic
6POLITICAL AND ELECTORAL PANORAMA IN LATIN AMERICA (2013-2016)
THE LATIN AMERICA OF THE THREE “CS”: CONTINUISM, CENTRISM AND MIDDLE CLASSES
2. DEVELOPMENT Kirchner in Argentina (2003),
Tabaré Vázquez in Uruguay
To explain that shift towards the (2005), Evo Morales in Bolivia
centre in the region, we must first (2005), Michelle Bachelet in
analyse (I) the different tendencies Chile (2006), Rafael Correa in
and (II) the political dynamics Ecuador (2006), Daniel Ortega in
present in Latin America. Nicaragua (2006), Álvaro Colom
in Guatemala (2007), Cristina
Then, in the third part of this Kirchner in Argentina in 2007,
“There are three analysis, we will study the “re- Fernando Lugo in Paraguay
political and electoral election fever” in Latin America. (2008) and Mauricio Funes in El
Salvador (2009).
tendencies in Latin I The three major political
America. At different tendencies in Latin America However, Latin America did not
times some hold more experience a shift to the left
Through the elections due to be before, nor is it experiencing
weight than others, held in the coming four years a shift to the right now. The
but all three are we will be able to see which of situation is much more complex
always present” the three major tendencies in and varied, just as the region is.
the region currently holds the
greatest weight. The prevailing There are three political and
idea up to now has been that election tendencies in Latin
Latin America shifted either to America. At different times some
the left (2002-2008) or to the hold more weight than others, but
right (2009-2012). At present, all three are always present:
however, the political bias is
actually more complex and much • The consolidation of populist
more heterogeneous. nationalism
The victory of Sebastián Piñera “XXI-century socialism”,
in the second round of the 2010 also known as “Chavism” or
presidential elections in Chile “Bolivarianism”, is actually
appeared to confirm Álvaro Vargas authoritarian, statist,
Llosa’s theory of a shift to the populist nationalism. Chávez
right in Latin America (with the started that tendency off in
victories of Ricardo Martinelli in 1998 and after upholding it
Panama, Porfirio Lobo in Honduras alone until 2005 (supported
and Piñera in Chile). exclusively by Fidel Castro
en Cuba) he was then backed
This was a turnaround from the by new allies such as Evo
previous tendency, prevailing Morales, Rafael Correa and
since the middle of the last Daniel Ortega.
decade, when people talked
of the “sway to the left” 2009 consolidated the
in the region following the populist-nationalism leaders
victories of Hugo Chávez in in power: Hugo Chávez won
Venezuela (1998), Lula da Silva the February referendum
in Brazil (2002/2006), Néstor allowing him to opt for re-
7POLITICAL AND ELECTORAL PANORAMA IN LATIN AMERICA (2013-2016)
THE LATIN AMERICA OF THE THREE “CS”: CONTINUISM, CENTRISM AND MIDDLE CLASSES
election indefinitely; Rafael of a “sway to the left”,
Correa was re-elected in the as was the case a decade
April 2009 elections; and Evo ago, over-simplified the
Morales won the Presidential situation, lumping together
elections in Bolivia in very different politics such
December of that year. as those of Bachelet or
Lula/Rousseff (who respect
The re-election of Correa in political and economic
2013 and Chavez’s party in freedom) with those of
2012/2013 merely confirmed Chávez/Maduro, Evo Morales
that consolidation, although and Correa.
no new players have joined
“2012 was marked by this front. Along with the centre right
continuism and and populist nationalism
the predominating • The advancing of the tendency there was, and
centre right still is, a strong reformist
victories of the left tradition in the region,
centrist candidates” Had there been a shift to the represented by Lula da Silva,
left between 2002 and 2009, Michelle Bachelet or José
it would have been difficult Mujica and Tabaré Vázquez.
to explain the government
of Mexico by the centre-right II Regional political dynamics
party PAN since 2000 or the
Uribe government since 2002 Along with the three major
in Colombia (led by Uribe tendencies described above, we
himself from 2002 to 2010 and should stress that in recent years
then by his successor-cum- (2010-2013) certain dynamics
rival, Juan Manuel Santos). have been perceived to be very
strong in the region, in addition to
These two figures were the heterogeneity of political bias:
joined by Sebastián Piñera the continuism of certain parties
in Chile, Porfirio Lobo in or leaderships in power and the
Honduras, Ricardo Martinelli predominance of centrist forces
in Panama and Otto Pérez (both centre right and centre left).
Molina in Guatemala. And in
2012 the PRI, led by Enrique • Continuism
Peña Nieto, even got back
into power. 2012 was marked by
continuism and the
• The strength of the predominance of victories
moderate, reformist left by the centrist candidates
(centre right and centre left).
Apart from the significant
exceptions to that This continuism, ratifying and
hypothetical “sway to the supporting the political and
left” (such as Mexico and economic management of the
Colombia), talking generally current governments, has been
8POLITICAL AND ELECTORAL PANORAMA IN LATIN AMERICA (2013-2016)
THE LATIN AMERICA OF THE THREE “CS”: CONTINUISM, CENTRISM AND MIDDLE CLASSES
favoured by the economic election of Rafael Correa in
panorama in the region, also February 2013).
marked by continuism in
economic prosperity, although In a way, the victory of the
with a few black clouds in the PRI in Medico and the Partido
background: the possibility Colorado in Paraguay can also
that the crisis in the European be considered continuism.
Union might eventually spread The PRI, a centre right party,
to the rest of the world, took over from the PAN in the
causing a slowdown in China centre right power; and the
“The governments linked and aborting the feeble upturn Paraguayan Partido Colorado
to “XXI century socialism” in the United States. got back into power after
holding it continuously from
have consolidated their This prosperity has in turn 1954 to 2008.
power but have not enabled the governments
managed to spread to start up welfare • Centrism
programmes (conditioned
their influence” direct transfers), through Centrist forces have been
which large sectors of the predominant in Latin America
population have pulled in the past five years.
out of poverty forming
an incipient middle class. This can be deduced from the
All this has increased the fact that the governments
population’s support for the linked to “XXI century
current ruling parties. socialism” have consolidated
their power but have not
There has been continuism, managed to spread their
for example, in the influence. Nobody has joined
Dominican Republic with the the Bolivarian block since
triumph of the ruling party, 2008. This political bias has
of “Leonelism” without even lost some followers,
Leonel Fernández, through such as Manuel Zelaya in
Danilo Medina: his PLD party Honduras (2009), who had
has been in power since 2004 formerly been an ally of
and will remain in power at “Chavism”, or a close figure
least until 2016 with Leonel such as Fernando Lugo in
Fernández’s wife, Margarita Paraguay (2012).
Cedeño, now as vice-
president, making the lines If 2010 was the year of
of continuism even firmer. the so-called “turn to the
centre” (with the victories
That continuism also existed of Sebastián Piñera in Chile
in Venezuela (triumph of and Juan Manuel Santos in
Hugo Chávez in October 2012, Colombia), 2011 was the
subsequently ratified in 2013 year that best expressed the
with the victory of Nicolás ideological heterogeneity
Maduro) and in Ecuador (re- of Latin America, with the
9POLITICAL AND ELECTORAL PANORAMA IN LATIN AMERICA (2013-2016)
THE LATIN AMERICA OF THE THREE “CS”: CONTINUISM, CENTRISM AND MIDDLE CLASSES
victories of a centre right 1995 Constitution contemplated
candidate in Guatemala successive re-election for two
(Otto Pérez Molina) and two terms in succession, which had
centre left candidates: in not been contemplated in the
Peru (Ollanta Humala) and in previous constitutions (the 1979
Argentina (Cristina Kirchner). Constitution in Peru and the 1853
Constitution in Argentina, which
In 2012 that predominance of allowed re-election but after
the centre was confirmed with alternate terms).
the victory of the PLD in the
Dominican Republic (a centre These two countries began
“The incumbents aspire to
left party that has shifted a tendency which spread
remain in power for one or towards a more pragmatic throughout the region: other
several more terms or orthodox position) and, countries jumped on the
and more often than not especially, the PRI led by bandwagon: Brazil in 1997 and
Enrique Peña Nieto in Mexico. Venezuela (the 1999 Constitution
they are re-elected” authorised a single re-election,
III The re-electionist wave in but its subsequent amendment
Latin America approved in 2009 allowed
indefinite re-election) and in the
The re-elections of Cristina following decade, the Dominican
Fernández de Kirchner in October Republic (2002), Colombia
2011, Hugo Chávez in October (2005), Ecuador (2008), Bolivia
2012 and Rafael Correa in February (2009) and Nicaragua (2010).
2013 merely reinforced a general
tendency within the region: the In other countries, such as
incumbents aspire to remain in Panama or Costa Rica, re-election
power for one or several more is more complicated. In the latter
terms and they mostly come out country, the possibility of re-
victorious and are re-elected with election for alternate terms was
overwhelming triumphs, often approved in 2003; before that any
in the first round, in which they kind of re-election was barred.
obtain more than 50% of the votes. Oscar Arias began this trend,
being president between 1986
In the eighties, when democracy and 1990 and again between 2006
returned to most of the region, and 2010. In Chile, Uruguay and El
excluding Cuba, the president Salvador the incumbent president
could not be re-elected twice in cannot stand for re-election
succession in any Latin American immediately; they must let a
country except Nicaragua, the presidential term go by before
Dominican Republic and Paraguay. they run for president again.
This tendency changed in the
nineties, when the re-electionist In Panama, the explanation of
tendency began to triumph in most why immediate re-election is
Latin American countries. Carlos complicated takes us back to
Menem’s Argentina following the when Ernesto Pérez Balladares
constitutional reform of 1994 got into power on 1 September
and Alberto Fujimori’s Peru in its 1994, when the Torrijos-led
10POLITICAL AND ELECTORAL PANORAMA IN LATIN AMERICA (2013-2016)
THE LATIN AMERICA OF THE THREE “CS”: CONTINUISM, CENTRISM AND MIDDLE CLASSES
nationalism returned to power • Four countries prohibit re-
democratically. Following in the election in all cases (Mexico,
wake of his Peruvian, Argentinian Guatemala, Honduras and
and Brazilian counterparts, Paraguay).
Pérez tried to push a number of
constitutional reforms through The possibility of successive re-
Parliament to allow presidential election is a trend that almost
re-election for a further five always favours the ruling parties
years. This ambition of Pérez’s and presidents in power. Since the
ruling party was backed by three transitions to democracy began
small liberal centre right parties: in the Dominican Republic and
“Only in one country, Liberal Nacional, Solidaridad and Ecuador (1978), all presidents who
Venezuela, is indefinite Cambio Democrático. The rules have sought successive re-election
re-election permitted” argued that he needed another have won the elections, except
year to complete the economic two: in Nicaragua in 1990 and the
reforms and direct the smooth Dominican Republic in 2004.
handover of the Panama Canal,
due to be made as of 31 December
1999, a priority issue for the 3. RE-ELECTIONIST TRENDS
national economy. Unsuccessful IN THE REGION (2013-16)
in his attempt to change the re-
election rules, Pérez led his party A new election rally (2013-2016) is
to defeat in the presidential now beginning in Latin America, in
elections of 2 May 1999, in which which a wave of candidates for re-
its candidate, Martín Torrijos election is expected.
Espino, was beaten by Mireya
Moscoso, who took office on 1 Between 2013 and 2016, all four
September. tendencies described above in
respect of Latin American re-
At present, the situation regarding re- electionism will be observed:
election is, therefore, very diverse:
• There will be incumbent
• Only in one country presidents who aspire to
(Venezuela) is indefinite re- re-election (as was the case
election permitted. of Rafael Correa and will be
that of Evo Morales in Bolivia,
• In six countries (Argentina, elected in 2005 and re-elected
Bolivia, Brazil, Colombia, in 2009, constitutional reform
Nicaragua and Ecuador) included).
consecutive re-election is
permitted, but not indefinitely. It also looks very much as if
Dilma Rousseff will seek re-
• In another seven countries it election in 2014, since her
is only possible after at least popularity and management
one or two presidential terms make her a natural candidate
(Chile, Costa Rica, El Salvador, for the PT. Juan Manuel
Panamá, Peru, Dominican Santos will most likely be the
Republic and Uruguay). candidate for the ruling party
11POLITICAL AND ELECTORAL PANORAMA IN LATIN AMERICA (2013-2016)
THE LATIN AMERICA OF THE THREE “CS”: CONTINUISM, CENTRISM AND MIDDLE CLASSES
in 2014, first elected in 2010 as into power in 2005, or Alan
successor of Uribe’s policies. García (president in 1985-90
Now, after distancing himself and 2006-2011) and Alejandro
from the former president Toledo (2001-2005) in Peru.
Álvaro Uribe, he would seek
re-election, in which he is Moreover, rumour has it that
very likely to run against Tony Saca, president of El
Uribe followers. Salvador between 2004 and
2009, will be the candidate for
The case of Cristina Kirchner Movimiento Unidad, running
in Argentina is different. The against the larger forces in
“Several former presidents Constitution does not permit the country, ARENA (his former
hope to return to power further re-election after party) and the FMLN.
in countries in which being elected president
in 2007 and repeating in • Presidents’ wives aspiring
successive terms in office 2011. She has not said she to succeed their husbands
are not permitted” wants to be re-elected, but (a sort of marital re-
her closest circles and the electionism: cases of
Kirchnerite organisations (La Xiomara Castro in Honduras,
Cámpora) working with her Sandra Torres in Guatemala
are clearly banking on this. and people are speculating
The key is in the legislative with that of Nadine Heredia
elections of October 2013: in Peru).
getting enough votes in
Congress just with the Néstor Kirchner started this
Peronists will be practically trend back in 2007 when his
impossible. But with an wife, the political leader
overwhelming victory in the Cristina Fernández, was
elections, it would be easier elected. Two presidents’
to reform the Constitution, wives are currently aspiring to
taking advantage of the continue their husbands’ work.
fact that the opposition is In Peru, Ollanta Humala’s wife
divided, fragmented and has Nadine Heredia is a strong
no clear leader. candidate, although to enable
her to run for president the
• Several former presidents election rules would have
hope to return to power to be changed, or a new
in countries in which interpretation made based on
successive terms in office the Constitution, which would
are not permitted. permit it and would rank above
election rules.
This will be the case if
Michelle Bachelet in Chile, In Central America, following
who was in office between Sandra Torres’ defeat in
2006 and 2010, Tabaré Guatemala when running
Vázquez in Uruguay, who led for president in 2011 (she
the left-wing Frente Amplio even divorced her husband,
12POLITICAL AND ELECTORAL PANORAMA IN LATIN AMERICA (2013-2016)
THE LATIN AMERICA OF THE THREE “CS”: CONTINUISM, CENTRISM AND MIDDLE CLASSES
President Álvaro Colom, to Electors are pragmatic in
get round the Constitutional their behaviour, avoiding
impediments), Xiomara radical options and supporting
Castro, wife of Manuel continuism that will guarantee
Zelaya, president of Honduras economic stability and progress.
between 2006 and 2009, is the This electoral behaviour giving
left-wing candidate for the preference to the centrist
2013 elections. options has been favoured by
prevailing economic prosperity
And Sandra Torres, with no in Latin America and growth of
constitutional obstacles this the middle class.
“If the regional economic time (her former husband
situation is maintained left the presidency in Even where the “XXI century
and the world situation, 2011), has been proclaimed socialism” tendencies are
presidential candidate imposed, this is because
so closely linked to by her party, the Unidad those regimes have strong
the region, does not get Nacional de la Esperanza, charismatic leaders (Rafael
any worse, the middle whose political council Correa or Evo Morales), who
is headed by the former promote orthodox economic
class will presumably president (and ex-husband) policies which, thanks to
continue growing” Álvaro Colom. the increased income from
exports, enable them to
• Countries in which no re- employ policies resorting
election of any nature is to clientelism [patronage].
permitted (the recent cases However, it should be noted
of Mexico and Paraguay that raw material exports are
and forthcoming elections maintained because these
in Honduras in 2013 and countries have not managed to
Guatemala in 2015). progress significantly towards
industrialisation of the basic
consumables they produce.
4. CONCLUSIONS
If the regional economic
The following conclusions can be situation is maintained
reached from this overview of the and the world situation,
election panorama in Latin America so closely linked to the
for the coming four years: region, does not get any
worse, the middle class
• Since 2009 the vast will presumably continue
majority of the Latin growing, which will boost
American electorate has the centre right and
moved towards moderate, centre left tendencies and
centrist political positions. strengthen the centrist,
And if there are no drastic continuist dynamics of
changes in the economy, this preferring the options that
tendency is likely to continue have governed so far, since
over the forthcoming period. with those governments the
13POLITICAL AND ELECTORAL PANORAMA IN LATIN AMERICA (2013-2016)
THE LATIN AMERICA OF THE THREE “CS”: CONTINUISM, CENTRISM AND MIDDLE CLASSES
countries have achieved charismatic leader by popular
economic stability and vote, weakens institutionalism,
social development. boosts personalist politics,
wipes out the division of
• Together with centrist, powers and hampers control
moderate inclinations, over the executive’s actions.
continuism has become one of
the principal characteristics Sometimes (as in the cases
in the region. of Venezuela, Ecuador
or Bolivia) that hyper-
The re-electionist fever presidentialism leads to what
merely confirms that the is known as “competitive
political systems in most Latin authoritarianism”, explained as
American countries have follows by the political scientist
similar problems which favour Steven Levitsky:
the re-election tendency as
a solution against the little “If Venezuela is neither a
credibility of the parties dictatorship nor a democracy,
among the public opinion what is it? It is competitive
and electorates, a constant authoritarianism, like
weakening of the institutions, Fujimori’s Peru. Unlike the
a natural leaning towards military or single-party
clientelism [patronage] and dictatorships, competitive
excessive personalism. In fact, authoritarianism is a
one of the “victories” that hybrid regime. There are
must be recognised in these democratic institutions that
leaders who have emerged are not mere fronts. There
in Latin America is that they are independent media and
have managed to delegitimise opposition parties, and the
the traditional politicians and opposition competes seriously
parties, such that there is now for power (sometimes
little or no opposition in those it wins, as occurred in
countries to the ruling powers. Nicaragua in 1990), although
the playing field is uneven.
The collapse of the party The opposition has fewer
systems in many countries and resources, less access to
the weakness of the judicial and the media, its leaders and
legislative powers has led to a activists suffer various types
concentration of constitutional of harassment and find that
and meta-constitutional instead of being neutral
powers in the figure of the arbitrators, the State
president, which is known institutions (the judiciary,
as “hyper-presidentialism”. electoral bodies, Sunat) are
Hyper-presidentialism, which used as weapons against
goes hand in hand with them. Jorge Castañeda
successive re-electionism described the 1994 elections
as a way of legitimising the in Mexico -another case of
14POLITICAL AND ELECTORAL PANORAMA IN LATIN AMERICA (2013-2016)
THE LATIN AMERICA OF THE THREE “CS”: CONTINUISM, CENTRISM AND MIDDLE CLASSES
competitive authoritarian- not be protected unless there are
ism- as a “football match strong, transparent democratic
in which the goalposts were institutions (a constitutional
different sizes and one framework and organisations
team has 11 players plus the arising as a consequence of that
referee and the other team framework) operating between
has six or seven players.” election periods.
The second team could win,
but it is very difficult.” Finally, democracies with weak
institutions are more vulnerable
Phenomena such as “competitive to corruption and more inclined
authoritarianism”, re-electionism to back a political party that
and hyper-presidentialism wear is in power for a long period.
down the democratic institutions. Moreover, democracies with
Most countries in the region are weak institutionalisation may
full or incomplete democracies, gradually lose ground and end
having free elections with civil up as authoritarian regimes. The
freedoms, both conditions presence of solid institutions,
being necessary for democracy, which account for their
but that is not enough to actions, forestall or hamper
consolidate a full democracy authoritarian tendencies.
unless they are accompanied
by a transparent government, Therefore, the short-term
political partici-pation and challenge facing Latin America
strong, credible institutions. countries is to strengthen their
political institutions in order to
Elections are an essential part of preserve democracy in the region
democracy. But minority rights and and avoid the risks of re-electionism
freedoms and human rights will and hyper-presidentialism.
15The protests are here to stay:
Social change and mobilisation of
citizens in Latin America
Madrid, october 2013THE PROTESTS ARE HERE TO STAY
SOCIAL CHANGE AND MOBILISATION OF CITIZENS IN LATIN AMERICA
1. INTRODUCTION 1. INTRODUCTION
2. COMMON FEATURES OF THE
PROTEST MOVEMENTS Chile hit the world headlines in 2006 and 2011 with student protests
3. CONCLUSIONS that put in a tight spot both centre-left governments such as that
headed by Michelle Bachelet (2006-2010) and centre-right executives
such as that headed by Sebastián Piñera (2010-2014).
The saucepan-bashing demonstrators took the streets of Buenos Aires
in 2012 and in 2013 it was Dilma Rousseff’s Brazil’s turn. Just when
the country was celebrating the FIFA Confederations Cup, a prelude
to the World Cup 2014, there was a wave of protests in the principal
cities of the country. And the protests in São Paulo, Río de Janeiro and
Brasilia had scarcely ended when the streets of Lima were also filled
with demonstrators protesting against Ollanta Humala’s government.
The question that comes to mind is whether Latin America is entering
an era marked by the turmoil of urban protests and social demands.
The seeds of such phenomena have already been experienced in other
countries such as Uruguay and Costa Rica and similar situations are
expected to arise sooner rather than later in Mexico and Colombia.
These social protests in Chile, Brazil and Peru have a number of very
special features, unprecedented in the region. They occur in a triple
context of:
• Economic growth (not crisis, as in other times in the history of these
countries or the current situation in Europe),
• Social change (emergence of heterogeneous urban middle classes) and
• Situation of clear dissatisfaction with the inefficient functioning of
the State, the public administrations and delegitimisation of the
parties and political class.
This report characterises these protest movements, studies their
local dynamics in each country and makes a prospective analysis:
where are they going and what effect could they have in the
short term.
17THE PROTESTS ARE HERE TO STAY
SOCIAL CHANGE AND MOBILISATION OF CITIZENS IN LATIN AMERICA
2. COMMON FEATURES OF So all these movements have
THE PROTEST MOVEMENTS three basic features in common,
which can be summed up saying
The participants in these that the economic situation
movements, which have spread prevailing in the region as from
throughout Latin America, are 2003 produced a social change
from the new emerging classes, that has had serious, direct
especially the urban middle political repercussions:
classes and younger strata of the
population. At first sight at least, They occur in situations of
“In the past, these waves there is no clear leadership and economic stability
of protests occurred they are pragmatic movements
(seeking specific improvements, The first characteristic of all these
at times of crisis and rather than political utopias) movements is an unprecedented
accumulated political and although there is a certain phenomenon. They take place in
socioeconomic tensions” presence of radical or ultra-left a situation of economic stability
groups (such as the Communist and even relative prosperity,
Party in the student protests in with economic growth of over 4%.
Chile). Moreover, naturally, the
new social networks (Facebook That same continuous, constant
and Twitter) play a decisive role growth of the GDP in the region is
in their origin and development behind many of the social changes
and almost certainly in their that have happened (reduction
prolongation over time. of poverty and inequality and a
significant growth of the middle
classes) and which are related
GROWTH OF THE ECONOMY IN LATIN AMERICA with the current protests.
Country 2010 2011 2012 2013*
Argentina 9.2 8.9 1.9 3.5 In the past, these waves of
protests occurred at times of
Bolivia 4.1 5.2 5.2 5.5
crisis and accumulated political
Brazil 6.9 2.7 0.9 2.5
and socioeconomic tensions. For
Chile 5.8 5.9 5.6 4.6 example, the closest in time
Colombia 4.0 6.6 4.0 4.0 were the protests in the late
Costa Rica 5.0 4.4 5.1 3.0 nineties and beginning of the
Cuba 2.4 2.8 3.0 3.0 following decade, which brought
down the governments of Raúl
Ecuador 2.8 7.4 5.0 3.8
Cubas (1999) on Paraguay,
El Salvador 1.4 2.0 1.6 2.0
Fernando de la Rúa (2001) in
Guatemala 2.9 4.2 3.0 3.0 Argentina, Gonzalo Sánchez
Haiti -5.4 5.6 2.8 3.5 de Lozada (2003) in Bolivia
Honduras 3.7 3.7 3.3 3.0 and Lucio Gutiérrez (2005) in
Mexico 5.3 3.9 3.9 2.8 Ecuador, among others. All these
Nicaragua 3.6 5.4 5.2 5.0
governments collapsed following
massive citizen protests (then
Panama 7.5 10.8 10.7 7.5
called “golpes de calle”
Paraguay 13.1 4.3 -1.2 12.5 [street uprisings] —massive
Peru 8.8 6.9 6.3 5.9 demonstrations that brought
Dominican Republic 7.8 4.5 3.9 3.0
Uruguay 8.9 6.5 3.9 3.8
Venezuela -1.5 4.2 5.6 1.0
Sub-total Latin America 5.7 4.4 3.0 3.0
18
Source: CepalTHE PROTESTS ARE HERE TO STAY
SOCIAL CHANGE AND MOBILISATION OF CITIZENS IN LATIN AMERICA
about the downfall of those Therefore, the underlying cause
governments—) and occurred in of the current social unrest is
that economically adverse five- not economic (as in the eighties
year period called the Lost Half or between 1997 and 2003),
Decade between 1997 and 2002 but rather political and social,
“The underlying cause of (which witnessed the fall of the although the effects of economic
the current social unrest Ecuador governments of Abdalá growth have been a very
Bucaram in 1997 and Jamil important variable in triggering
is not economic (as in the Mahuad in 2000). transformations of that nature.
eighties or between 1997
and 2003), but rather Now, however, the economic Led by emerging middle classes
growth figures of Latin American
political and social” countries are not only high, but As mentioned earlier, these
moreover consolidated since demonstrations were led
2003, with the sole exception mainly by the emerging and
of 2009. The region got over consolidated urban middle
the world crisis without any classes in Latin America.
great difficulty.
These ten years of high,
continuous growth in the region
accompanied by social policies,
especially conditioned transfers,
have brought a significant
POVERTY IN LATIN AMERICA reduction of poverty (from 225
Poverty continues to fall in the region, to 167 million people between
but still affects 167 million people 2002 and 2012) and extreme
poverty (from 99 to 66 million).
Poverty
Extreme According to figures published
poverty by the World Bank, “the Gross
Domestic Product (GDP) per capita
225 on the continent rose at an average
204 215 Million people rate of 2.2% p.a. between 2000 and
2010. In six countries (including
184 Argentina, the Dominican Republic,
179 Panama and Peru), the annual
168 167
growth rates of over 3% per capita
136 were produced during this period…
The combination of sustained
growth (albeit far from spectacular)
and the reduction of inequality
led to a considerable lowering of
95 99
91 the absolute poverty figures. The
73 69 66 66 rate of moderate poverty in Latin
62
America was lowered from 44.4%
1980 1990 1999 2002 2009 2010 2011 2012 in 2000 to 28% in 2010, in spite
of the global financial crisis in
Source: Cepal y AFP
19THE PROTESTS ARE HERE TO STAY
SOCIAL CHANGE AND MOBILISATION OF CITIZENS IN LATIN AMERICA
the last two years of the decade in public transport in Brazil in
(World Bank, 2011). This reduction 2013. That heterogeneous urban
of poverty meant that there were middle class we are describing is
50 million fewer Latin Americans strongly present in all of them. The
living in poverty in 2010 than 10 Brazilian example is significant
years earlier. If compared with in this regard, since around
2003, the reduction in absolute thirty-five million Brazilians have
figures is even greater: 75 million.” moved out of poverty since 2003.
Whereas in the 1990s up to 25% of
“The World Bank defines 75 million people who have the Brazilian population lived in
the Latin American middle moved out of poverty to join extreme poverty, that number was
the different strata of middle reduced to 2.2% by 2009.
classes as ‘urban, with classes (heterogeneous and highly
better education levels, diversified), which have grown But what do we understand by
mostly employees in the and over the same years. middle class?
private sector and with As pointed out by the World There is no consensus in the
beliefs and opinions Bank, “After decades of academic world of what is
which, in general, stagnation, the middle class understood by middle classes,
population in Latin America and since the definitions given from
coincide with those of
the Caribbean has grown by the points of view of sociology (a
their poorer and less 50% from 103 million people in lifestyle), psychology and economy
educated compatriots’” 2003 to 152 million (or 30% of (income brackets ranging from 10
the population of the continent) to 50 dollars a day per capita) do
in 2009. During this period, as not always coincide. The World
household income grew and Bank defines the Latin American
inequality tended to diminish in middle classes as ‘urban, with
most countries, the percentage better education levels, mostly
of poor population fell employees in the private sector
considerably, from 44% to 30%. having beliefs and opinions which
Consequently, the percentages generally coincide with those of
of middle class population and their poorer and less educated
poor people in Latin America compatriots’.
are currently equal. This
situation contrasts with the This segment of population is
situation prevailing (for a long now the most important link in
time) up to almost 10 years ago, the regional economy owing to
when the percentage of poor its purchasing power and many
population was equivalent to experts consider that its sudden
approximately 2.5 times that of appearance is the greatest social
the middle class.” change in the history of the region
since the migrations from country
There are at the same time marked to city in the fifties and sixties. But
differences and close parallel in it is a very heterogeneous middle
the mass student protests in Chile class, as shown in the following
in 2011, the saucepan-bashing graph. It includes sectors half
protests in Buenos Aires in 2012 and way between poverty and the
the protests against the increase middle class (those with incomes
20THE PROTESTS ARE HERE TO STAY
SOCIAL CHANGE AND MOBILISATION OF CITIZENS IN LATIN AMERICA
of 4-10 dollars a day) and within That complexity mentioned by
the middle class itself there is a Iglesias arises because the middle
broad spread between the lowest classes feel left out of a system
incomes (10 dollars a day) and the that does not take them into
highest incomes, which do not fall account or provide any solutions
far short of the lower end of the to their most urgent claims.
élite (50 dollars a day). Andas mentioned in the World
Bank report, the governments
This appearance and growth of the are running up a double deficit
“The World Bank has middle classes contributes towards in respect of the demands of the
warned of the growing the shaping of more modern, middle classes:
but also more complex societies.
unrest of the middle The Secretary General of SEGIB, They do not incorporate “the
classes over the fact that Enrique Iglesias, has been warning objective of equal opportunities,
‘the middle classes are about this for some time: “We especially in public policies.
are going to have a new society This is fundamental to ensure
increasingly required to of middle classes. We are already that the middle classes feel that
pay for services which are seeing evidence of this. Societies they live in a society in which it
provided free for others’” of middle classes that are difficult is worth making an effort and
to govern. Certain of their features where merits are rewarded,
require a change in the way we do instead of a society that favours
politics; they are middle societies the privileged groups.”
which demand new services, new
ways of participating and good The World Bank has warned of
quality services; this is the case the growing unrest of the middle
of education.” classes over the fact that ‘the
middle classes are increasingly
required to pay for services which
TRENDS IN THE MIDDLE CLASSES, VULNERABILITY AND POVERTY are provided free for others. A
IN LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN, 1995-2009 system of dual social protection
based on selective assistance
for the poor and on insurance
50
(subsidised) for the middle classes
45 might also be inadequately
adapted for a large, vulnerable
40
population that is neither poor
Percentage of population
35 nor middle class and whose
vulnerability will increase if the
30
external environment becomes
25 less favourable than in the past.”
20 Poor
(US$0-4/day) The World Bank also reveals that
15
Vulnerable
the public policies have so far
(US$4-10/day) not been capable of putting an
10
Middle class
end to “the vicious circle of low
5 (US$10-50/day) taxes and poor quality public
services which leads the middle
0
and high classes to opt out.”
1995 2000 2005 2010
Source: World Bank
21THE PROTESTS ARE HERE TO STAY
SOCIAL CHANGE AND MOBILISATION OF CITIZENS IN LATIN AMERICA
Growing political dissatisfaction have occurred in Chile, Brazil
among citizens and Peru, since, being unable
to channel their unrest through
“The great paradox of The great paradox of these protest the political system, all these
these protest movements movements is, therefore, that they emerging social sectors have taken
occur in economically successful it to the streets. The writer Moisés
is, therefore, that they countries with modernised Naím has highlighted the parallel
occur in economically societies (the middle classes between all these movements
successful countries with have grown and poverty and even and their common political
inequality have been reduced). roots: they begin with small
modernised societies” incidents which start to grow, the
“Prosperity cannot buy stability”, governments react inadequately
—according to the analyst and (with repression, reproach or
writer Moisés Naím—. “The merely ignoring the protests) and
greatest surprise of these street this further fuels the discontent of
protests is that they take place these social sectors, which have
in economically successful no clear leaders.
countries… Brazil has not only
moved millions of people out of Therefore, the political system
poverty, but has even managed to does not appear to be capable
reduce its inequality. In all those of dealing with the demands
countries the middle class is now of those middle classes, which
larger than ever.” themselves embody a social but
also political change, as stressed
Those economic and social by the secretary general of SEGIB,
changes are not being channelled Enrique Iglesias: “A middle class
by the political system, which has that is practically dominating
been incapable of adapting to the the world. The figures vary,
new circumstances; it still acts in but almost certainly 50% of the
the same way as in the eighties, population in Latin American
when democracy returned to countries are middle class. That is
the region. There is a growing an important phenomenon which
rift between the State and those must be administered politically,
middle classes. The World Bank and this task entails a new way of
concludes that “The middle doing politics.”
classes will not participate in or
contribute to an improved social The political systems have proved
contract if the assets they value themselves inefficient (they do not
so highly (such as protection of provide solutions or answers to the
civil rights, education, police social demands for better public
and the health services) are services) and do not arouse citizen
inadequately provided by the support, for several reasons:
State and if they don’t perceive
that the rich are contributing • Inefficient State faced with a
fairly to the social contract.” revolution of expectations
This explains the widespread What these governments
expressions of discontent that actually face is a revolution
22THE PROTESTS ARE HERE TO STAY
SOCIAL CHANGE AND MOBILISATION OF CITIZENS IN LATIN AMERICA
of expectations which they to the Adimark poll,
have so far been unable although there has been
to channel or organise: an upturn in recent times
the emerging sectors have to around 37-39%.
moved on to a new stage
and they want and demand, »» In Argentina, Cristina
above all, more and better Kirchner, re-elected in
public services. the first round in 2011
with 54.1% of the votes,
According to Moisés Naím: “In has just seen her political
societies going through rapid party defeated in the
transformation, the demand principal districts in the
“What these for public services grows faster local elections, obtaining
governments actually than the governments are able just 25% of the votes,
face is a revolution of to meet it. This causes a rift 30 points down on what
that brings people out onto she obtained two years
expectations which they the streets to protest against ago, before the wave of
have so far been unable the government and fuels saucepan-bashing protests
to channel or organise” other highly justified protests: were unleashed in 2012.
the prohibitive cost of higher
education in Chile, or the »» Dilma Rousseff, who had
impunity of corrupt politicians 58% approval in March,
in Brazil.” saw her popularity fall
by 20 points in June —
As a result of this revolution following the wave of
of unchannelled expectations protests coinciding with
and consequent unrest, the Confederations Cup—
certain governments have lost sliding to 30% according to
considerable support, even to a Data folha poll in July.
the point of electoral defeat,
owing to their inability to »» The Peruvian Ollanta
give a political response to Humala has faced the
social demands. protests in Lima just when
his popularity was falling,
This is illustrated with a few as observed in an Ipsos
examples: poll, showing that her
acceptance fell from 54%
»» In Chile, Sebastián Piñera in February to 33% in July.
has had very low levels
of popular acceptance ¿What are those middle
throughout his term in classes asking of the political
office: he was elected class? Better public services
in the second round with and a less corrupt, less
51.6% of the votes, but patronage political system.
over the years of strong Enhanced public services
student protests citizen (education, health, transport
approval dropped to and citizen security) lead to
below 30%, according improved purchasing power,
23THE PROTESTS ARE HERE TO STAY
SOCIAL CHANGE AND MOBILISATION OF CITIZENS IN LATIN AMERICA
since fewer funds need to new, with their aims and
be tied up in private medical ambitions, they increase
insurance, private education their demands on the State.
or private security. The consolidated middle
classes can continue using
As reflected by Michael private education or health
Shifter, president of Inter- systems, but the new middle
American Dialogue, “[all classes need improvements
that unrest] is a product of and more accessible public
economic and social progress systems to be able to
and the expansion of the consolidate their status.
middle class in countries such Moreover, the middle classes
“Those middle classes, as Brazil, Mexico, Chile and that miss out on globalisation
Colombia. Many young people would also benefit from a
mostly politically in the middle classes in Latin general improvement of the
disorganised, have a America (students in Chile and public systems.”
significant political Brazil, teachers and lecturers
in Uruguay) are disenchanted This reflection coincides with
influence because their with traditional politics, both the figures of the Americas
demands put pressure right-wing and left-wing. Barometer, which indicates,
on governments which They want the governments, for example, that “in the last
are not usually ready to which now have more funds, decade, the Brazilians are
to provide higher quality among the Latin American
respond quickly” services and they are tired citizens most dissatisfied with
of corruption and mistaken the welfare services provided
spending priorities.” by the government. Much
of this situation is probably
That dissatisfaction with due to the high taxes paid by
deficient public services, Brazilians (around 36% of the
sometimes —as in Brazil— GDP) and the perception that
exacerbated with heavy tax they are paying taxes at rich
burdens, explain much of country levels in exchange
what has been happening for services more fitting of
in Latin America. Indeed, poor countries.”
those middle classes, mostly
politically disorganised, have The ten most dissatisfied
a significant political influence countries include, apart from
because their demands put Brazil (third), Chile (fourth)
pressure on governments and Peru (sixth), two nations
which are not usually ready to that have suffered this type of
respond quickly. social protests. The protests
in Chile in 2006 and 2011-12
As indicated by Ludolfo focused on education and,
Paramio, lecturer at the above all, on how to rebuild the
CSIC (Spanish Scientific university system and finance
Research Council), “Owing higher education. According
to the very nature of the to Micheal Read, editor of
middle classes, both old and The Economist specialising in
24THE PROTESTS ARE HERE TO STAY
SOCIAL CHANGE AND MOBILISATION OF CITIZENS IN LATIN AMERICA
Latin America: “In all cases the protests that have taken
they are expressions of the place in recent years in the
discontent of citizens who region. Chile set the protest
are less poor, less worried, ball rolling with the “penguin
at least for the time being, revolution” in 2006-07, the
about the economic situation unrest over the inadequate
“The system losses its
and much more demanding as operation of Transantiago
legitimacy in the eyes of regards what they want from (the public transport system
its citizens, who see that the State and political system. in Santiago) afterwards and
the State is incapable Although the specific demands in this decade the university
are different, they have that protests in 2011, which
of providing them in common.” caused Sebastián Piñera so
with physical or legal many headaches.
security, or adequate • Loss of legitimacy of the
system Behind them all was a
public services” “revolution of expectations”
A revolution of expectations of the middle classes not
that have not been met by the State. “Part of
adequately met has a direct this problem is caused by the
political repercussion: the success of the Concertación1:
system losses its legitimacy in 20 years it managed to
in the eyes of its citizens, open up access to education
who see that the State considerably. Secondary
is incapable of providing education was made universal
them with physical or legal and university education
security, or adequate public grew. But with a loan system
services and sometimes, as with interest rates at 10%
in the case of Venezuela and p.a., the problem blew
Argentina, even controlling up. And it has done so now
inflation. As also mentioned because the students are
in the Americas Barometer, now finishing their university
“in 2012, around 65% of studies. In 1990, one out
Brazilians perceived that the of every five Chileans in
political system was corrupt… university age got into higher
and (Brazil) was twenty- education; now it is one out
second out of 26 countries of every two”, comments
in the Americas in 2012 in Patricio Navia, lecturer at
support for the national the Diego Portales University.
political institutions.”
This fact, economic success
Those two circumstances, that does not guarantee
dissatisfaction with the peace of mind or social
governments’ public policies satisfaction, merely confirms
and little attachment to the the change experienced in
institutions, are present in Chile. As reflected by the
1 Concert of Parties for Democracy, a coalition of centre-left parties
25THE PROTESTS ARE HERE TO STAY
SOCIAL CHANGE AND MOBILISATION OF CITIZENS IN LATIN AMERICA
economist and intellectual who came from that vast,
Sebastián Edwards in the widely diversified sector of
daily newspaper La Tercera: the middle classes (who, we
“Chile is trapped. Trapped recall, start with salaries of
by relentless unrest, by a 5000 or 6000 pesos), were
“Chile is trapped. deep mistrust of politicians not protesting only because
Trapped by relentless and institutions, by a sort they could not buy dollars.
unrest, by a deep of persistent melancholy.” They also had other slogans
“Politics sucks”, says the man and converting them all
mistrust of politicians in the street. “There is an into a pretext concealing
and institutions, by institutional crisis”, repeat the their desire to have foreign
a sort of persistent women in the supermarkets. currencies at the official
“The neoliberal model has price was to disregard them
melancholy” failed”, shout the students in entirely. It is the symmetrical
Sebastián Edwards their demonstrations. version of those who say
that the participants in the
And he adds: “Chilean families anti-Kirchner demonstrations
are proud of what each of were ‘out for the plan and
them has achieved during the choripán2’.”
the last quarter of a century:
moving into the middle class, In Brazil, the demonstrators
the university degree of one in the June protests were not
of their daughters, their poor people uprooted from
dream holiday, the grant the shanty towns but from
awarded to their nephew. the middle class, which was
Personal satisfaction and demanding efficiency and
social discontent coexist anti-corruption measures
in present-day Chile. Many from the State.
consider this illogical, but
that’s the way it is.” Long gone are the days of
the renowned “he steals,
Meanwhile in Argentina, in but he acts”, which in the
2001 during the famous “get fifties raised to power figures
them all out”, there was such as Adhemar de Barros,
a prelude of that “middle mayor and governor of São
class rebellion.” It has now Paulo, where people said
reappeared in the saucepan- “Adhemar rouba mas faz”
bashing protests of 2012 (“Adhemar steals but acts”).
and 2013 against Cristina Juan Arias, correspondent in
Kirchner’s government. Brazil for the daily Spanish
newspaper El País, considers
The analyst and historian that “The new middle class is
Beatriz Sarlo agreed with now demanding “first world
this diagnosis, stressing public services —education,
that “The demonstrators, transport, hospitals—”, as
2 a type of sandwich with chorizo [sausage] popular in several Latin American countries.
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