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ANNUAL REVIEW 2020–2021 VOL. 39 ISSN: 1392-5504 Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review H.E. Valdas Adamkus, Former President of Lithuania on Lithuania’s Eastern Policy H.E. Aleksander Kwaśniewski, Former President of Poland on Polish-Lithuanian Relations Nobel Laureate Robert J. Shiller on the Global Economy During the Pandemic Ambassador Audra Plepytė on the UN’s 75th Anniversary Patrick Keller on Germany’s Role in Deterrence in NATO’s Northeast Chris Miller on the Implications of the U.S. Presidential Election
Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review
A NOTE FROM
EDITOR-IN-CHIEF: Linas Kojala
COVER DESIGN: Fausta Mikutaitė
LAYOUT: Ieva Makarevičė
THE EDITOR
PUBLISHER
Linas Kojala, Director of Eastern Europe Studies Centre (EESC), is Editor-in-
Chief. EESC is a nongovernmental, non-profit think-tank established in Vilnius,
Lithuania, in 2006. It aims to analyze political and economic processes in
Eastern Europe and beyond. EESC partners include European Commission,
the NATO Science for Peace and Security Programme, National Endowment for It is a privilege to serve as the Ed- This issue places a heavy empha- This publication would not have
Democracy, USAID, CEPA, the Foreign Policy Research Institute and others. itor-in-Chief of Lithuanian Foreign sis on the topic of mass protests in been possible without our friends
Policy Review (LFPR) for the third Belarus. Laurynas Jonavičius from and partners. I am extremely
3
year. The aim of the annual journal Vilnius University looks at Lithu- happy that the Ministry of Foreign
EDITORIAL STAFF ania’s position to events taking
is to provide insights on the most Affairs of Lithuania remains a key
Rytis Paulauskas, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Lithuania pressing challenges for Lithuanian place in this neighboring country partner, providing support while
Margarita Šešelgytė, Vilnius University foreign and security policy, as that was not perceived as being ensuring editorial independence.
Andžej Pukšto, Vytautas Magnus University well as to discuss global develop- on the brick of significant changes Konrad Adenauer Stiftung and the
ments. We are grateful for the at the start of 2020. The issue of U.S. Embassy in Lithuania contin-
exceptionally positive response to Belarus is also touched upon in ue to engage in our partnership;
MAIN PARTNER articles by well-known American
previous editions of the journal we these contributions have been
Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Lithuania have received both from decision- authors, Daniel Fried and David A. essential in making this current
makers and the expert community. Andelman, who analyze how the issue of LFPR as far-reaching as it
PARTNERS global role of the US has evolved is. I am thankful for my colleagues
2020 is an extremely arduous through the years of Donald
The Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung (KAS) is a German political foundation, which at the Eastern Europe Studies
year on many fronts. Hence, Trump. Finally, with Joe Biden set Center for their help.
is in charge of projects in more than 120 countries. The KAS also cooperates the year’s international group of to take over, Chris Miller looks at
in the publication of the Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review by supporting the authors with diverse backgrounds Finally, Ambassador Rytis
the aftermath of the election and
and areas of expertise have at- Paulauskas, Margarita Šešelgytė,
journal’s printing and distribution. the future dilemmas for the Demo-
tempted to shed at least some Director at Institute of International
cratic presidency.
light on the essential develop- Relations and Political Science,
US Embassy in Lithuania I am also happy that the publica- Vilnius University and Andžej
ments. This enables the journal
US Embassy in Lithuania has supported the US experts contributing to this tion is full of well-known names Pukšto, an Associate Professor
EM
A
to provide a variety of views and
NI
BA
SS
A
YV U
H
I L N I U S, LIT
year's publication. delve deeper into multiple topics. and experienced experts. Audra at Vytautas Magnus University,
Plepytė, the Permanent Represen- formed a great Editorial Board,
LFPR is honored that two former tative of Lithuania to the United to whom I extend my warmest
ISSN: 1392-5504 heads of state – former President Nations, shares her thoughts on thanks.
© LFPR, 2020–2021 of Lithuania Valdas Adamkus the United Nations and its 75th
and former President of Poland anniversary. Different aspects of Please do not hesitate to share
Vol. 39
Aleksander Kwaśniewski – gave security are covered by Vytautas LFPR with your friends, colleagues
All of the images in the present edition hold a permission from the source for a
exclusive interviews on bilateral Keršanskas, who argues for the and partners!
non-commercial reuse.
Lithuanian-Polish relations, as well need to develop better knowledge Sincerely,
as on the future of the Eastern on dealing with the issue of hybrid
http://www.lfpr.lt LINAS KOJALA
Partnership policy. Both presidents threats. Patrick Keller weighs in
http://www.eesc.lt emphasized the common inter- on German security policy and
ests, as well as personal friend- its presence in the Baltic States.
ships, that bind Lithuania and Other contributions are also wor-
Poland more than ever before. thy of reader attention.
TABLE OF
Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review
VALDAS ADAMKUS
VALDAS ADAMKUS: served as the President of the
Republic of Lithuania from 1998
SOONER OR LATER,
CONTENTS
to 2003 and again from 2004 to
2009. During his years in exile,
spent in the USA, he served as a
THE SPIRIT OF FREEDOM regional administrator of the fifth
region of the United States En-
vironmental Protection Agency
WILL PREVAIL IN BELARUS and was actively engaged in the
fight for the cause of freedom
of Lithuania from occupation by
the Soviet Union.
CONVERSATIONS
5
05 VALDAS ADAMKUS: Sooner or Later, the Spirit of Freedom will Prevail in Belarus
I still have hope to
07 ALEKSANDER KWAŚNIEWSKI: Lithuania is a Key Strategic Partner of Poland
see new highways
11 ROBERT J. SHILLER on Global Economy during the Pandemic: and railways built
Fortunately, Lithuania is a Part of the EU in the near future,
CONVERSATIONS
meeting modern
ANALYSIS standards, for our
13 AUDRA PLEPYTĖ. UN at 75. Challenging the Past and Future countries to be con-
16 DAVID A. ANDELMAN. Covid Leaves Putin Undeterred nected by energy
networks, pipelines,
21 DR. CHRIS MILLER. Biden’s European Policy Dilemmas modern telecommu-
24 DANIEL FRIED. US Leadership Post-Coronavirus nication channels.
It's been 20 years
27 DR. PATRICK KELLER. Rock Solid: Germany’s Role in Deterrence and Defense now, but these links
in NATO’s North-East have not been fin-
30 DR. ANDREAS VON GEHLEN. 30 years of German Unity – 30 years NATO ished yet.
IMAGE: Adamkus accepted the award from the hands of Poland's for-
Enlargement to the East Speech by Adamkus in Au-
mer foreign minister Anna Fotyga (© R. Dačkus/Lithuanian President‘s
33 JAMES SHERR. The Paradox of Russia’s Decline Chancellery) gust, 2020. Former President
4
of Lithaunia was presented
36 DR. LAURYNAS JONAVIČIUS. What will History Books say about the EU and with Lech Kaczyński Pro-
Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review
Lukashenko in Light of the Crisis in Belarus? During his two terms as the Presi- the national level but also defended
metheus Award for his efforts
to further regional cooper-
41 VYTAUTAS KERŠANSKAS. Countering Hybrid Threats: In Search of a More dent of Lithuania (1998 through the cause of freedom wherever it
ation
2003 and 2004 thorough 2009), was only beginning to emerge.
Strategic Approach
Valdas Adamkus became known It was these very topics that Adam-
for his close attention to Central
CONFERENCE OVERVIEW kus sat down to discuss with Linas your key foreign policy priorities.
and Eastern Europe, relations with Kojala, the editor of the Lithuanian
45 Dealing with the Trauma of an Undigested Past Poland, and countries like Ukraine
While in office, you had some
Foreign Policy Review, just before 40 bilateral meetings with your
and Georgia. He has remained the President’s 94th birthday. counterpart, President Aleksander
committed to these issues since, Kwaśniewski alone, whom we
and is remembered to this day, – I would like to ask you about the also interviewed for this Lithuanian
internationally, as a leader who not relationship between Lithuania and Foreign Policy Review issue. There
only strengthened democracy at Poland, as this used to be one of has recently been a yet-another
warming of bilateral relations, but We ought to maintain close ties – We have been hearing fears that
Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review
ALEKSANDER KWAŚNIEWSKI,
ALEKSANDER KWAŚNIEWSKI:
over the last decade, the two with our eastern neighbours. The the attitude of the United States
countries have also had their share Maidan Revolution opened new towards Europe is changing. Ameri- is the former President of the
of tensions and disagreements. opportunities for Ukraine in terms cans no longer want to pay all that Republic of Poland (1995–2005).
– This had been due to a sincere
assessment of the political situa-
of joining the Western world and
implementing democratic prin-
much attention to Europe and instead
prefer to focus on domestic issues or LITHUANIA IS A KEY Until November 2013, President
Kwaśniewski co-lead the
STRATEGIC PARTNER
China. In your opinion, will the United European Parliament monitoring
ciples. However, this exam has
tion at the time. Poland fully un- mission in Ukraine to monitor
yet to be passed. Perhaps Ukraine States turn away from Europe?
derstands the period of the Soviet the criminal cases against Yulia
still needs to shake off the eco-
OF POLAND
occupation, the crimes against – The US Administration’s policy Tymoshenko, Yuriy Lutsenko and
nomic remains of the Soviet dicta- Valeriy Ivaschenko.
humanity committed by the towards Europe has changed, and
torship that enabled oligarchs and
regime and the traumas that have this is indeed regrettable. However,
politicians like Viktor Yanukovych,
yet to heal. So our shared histori- we should not forget that there is no
who ultimately fled to Russia.
cal past was the point of connec- shortage of European countries criti-
tion, and it was strengthened by The influence of the Kremlin cal of the US, too.
the personal relationship between remains strong, let alone its
Yet both Europeans and Americans
7
us, the two heads of state. military aggression and violations
know that transatlantic relations are
of Ukraine’s territorial integrity.
of utmost importance for global se-
This is why we were well-aware of Ukraine’s membership in the EU curity, so I remain optimistic. Hence,
the geopolitical challenges of the does not seem very likely at the I do not believe that the strategic
day. We shared a strong inter- moment, but I witnessed the en- policy of the US is going to change
est in a mutually-agreed policy thusiasm for change among both dramatically. From our point of view,
CONVERSATIONS
towards Russia with the involve- Ukraine’s youth and its political Lithuania may be receiving less atten-
ment of other Baltic countries, leaders even during my presiden- tion than before, but I am certain that
Ukraine, and Georgia, as this was cy. It is even stronger now. we will be able to maintain strong
the only means of strengthening
and stable relations.
our own security. We therefore – How do you view the situation
CONVERSATIONS
proposed a number of new inter- in Belarus today? Do you see – How do you see the role of China
national political forums, setting any similarities with Sąjūdis (the on the global stage? Does it present
out clear, mutual goals and outlin- Lithuanian Reform Movement) or, a security challenge or an opportu-
ing ways to achieve them. perhaps, the Maidan Revolution? nity for economic cooperation?
We understood that close – Lithuania has shown the world – China is a superpower. We cannot
cooperation between neighbour- that we are not only a democratic turn a blind eye to this fact. During
ing countries was the only way country but also a country ready my time in office, this trend was only IMAGE: Kwaśniewski and Adamkus during a discussion at the Vilnius Book Fare in 2012 (© DELFI / Šarūnas
out of a number of problems we to lend a helping hand to others. It beginning to emerge. I think that it Mažeika)
were facing. is now crucial to support the moral presents, first and foremost, a chal-
strength and unity of the Belaru- lenge for the West, to our demo-
6
– Your 2020 acceptance speech sian people. The Freedom Way cratic and other foundational values. Editor of the Lithuanian Foreign nomic and diplomatic sanctions, countries suffering under Russian
of the Lech Kaczyński Pro- initiative was a very good example Especially if China becomes closer Policy Review Linas Kojala talks while NATO increased its military aggression. The rotating presence
Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review
metheus Award in the Office of here, with tens of thousands of with Russia. with the President Kwaśniewski presence in Poland and the Baltic of NATO troops in our region has
the President of the Republic of Lithuanians holding hands and on his cooperation with Lithu- States. Is that enough to deter also increased significantly, serving
Lithuania contained the following sending a clear signal as to whose – Lithuania marked the thirtieth an- anian President Valdas Adamkus Russia? as a military deterrent and symbol
line: ‘I urge us not to forget our side they are on in the face of vio- niversary of its independence. How (in office 1998–2003 and 2004- of our unity, solidarity and resolve.
– Russia’s aggressive politics and
eastern neighbours.’ The region lence on the streets of Belarus. do you see Lithuania today? 2009), as well as broader trends Is that enough to deter Russia?
military interventions are as chal-
underwent a number of revolu- of political and economic reform I think that under the current
I am certain that this wave can – Lithuania is on the right path. Cer- lenging for countries in our region
tions, from Georgia and Ukraine in Ukraine, protests in Belarus, the circumstances, yes. However, if
no longer be stopped. Sooner tain domestic issues notwithstand- as they are for NATO and the EU.
evolution of transatlantic relations, the international situation worsens,
to Armenia and Belarus. And yet or later, the spirit of freedom will ing, we achieved a lot of progress The international community has
China and beyond. the NATO military presence should
it does not seem as if any one prevail in Belarus, with its people on both domestic and international done a great deal to make such
of these countries stand a real becoming masters of their own fronts. We are a stable member of – How do you see the EU and policies costly for Russia – sanc- be significantly expanded. For that
chance of joining the EU or NATO. country. Everyone fighting for the club of democratic countries. I NATO response to the growing tions, exclusion of Russia from in- purpose, NATO installations are al-
How do you view the situation in freedom today will ultimately see no danger of us changing course Russian threat in the region since ternational bodies and partnerships, ready being enlarged and upgraded
Lithuania’s neighbour countries? achieve it. in the future. 2014? The EU imposed eco- additional financial support for throughout Central Europe.
principal partners not only in the up to Belarus and an attempt to It is of unequivocal interest to are correct, I am more than certain
Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review
region, but also in EU and NATO. decrease its dependence on Rus- him that this transition is done that further expansion will take
To some extent, Vilnius already sia. Do you think this is a realistic through a negotiated agreement place. That is also a particular ob-
Lithuania remains one plays a more significant role than goal? How can Western countries and not decided through violence
In general terms, the ligation for Poland, which always
of Poland’s principal Poland in some of the EU’s foreign effectively encourage Belarus to on the streets. It would be the reforms in Ukraine insisted on the “open door policy”
partners not only in policy areas; Lithuanian activity and become more transparent and worst possible outcome if Belarus have to be assessed in both organizations.
the region, but also know-how in Belarus and Ukraine increase its willingness to cooper- follows the Ukrainian scenario very positively –
is particularly impressive. ate with the West? – The EU-US relationship seems
in EU and NATO. To from 2014; all parties have to
Ukraine today is a to be complicated at the mo-
avoid this at all costs.
some extent, Vilnius Some would say that many his- – A prosperous and peaceful fu- different country ment. One example is Trump’s
torical disputes and contemporary ture for Belarus is in the interest of
already plays a more differences – for example regard- all its neighbors. The wave of pop-
I think a much more preferable
than it was in 2014. announcement that some Ameri-
scenario would be like in Poland
significant role than ing the position and rights of the ular protests against election fraud 1989, when the transfer of power
But much remains can troops, currently stationed in
Germany, may leave, and some
Poland in some of the Polish minority – still continue to and abuse of power has rocked was part of a political settlement to be done. may go to Poland. Could this
EU’s foreign policy restrict the full potential of Polish- the country in recent weeks in a that was first negotiated, and then lead to a broader tectonic shift
Lithuanian relations. Undoubtedly, previously unprecedented way.
areas; Lithuanian kept by both sides. It enabled in NATO? Could it complicate
9
these are serious considerations, At this time, I can only hope that General Jaruzelski to remain in his
activity and know- but I am certain that pragmatic Belarusian society, its leaders as country and be part of society. I I have met many Ukrainians
German-Polish relations?
how in Belarus and cooperation and good will on both well as authorities will find a way believe such a scenario would still politicians, ministers and other The issue of withdrawing troops
Ukraine is particularly sides will enable our countries and to achieve a negotiated political be best for Belarus. government employees in recent from Germany was a subject of
societies to work out a satisfactory agreement. There are some signs years. Their enthusiasm and will public debate long before the
impressive. modus vivendi. of progress – the constitutional to change Ukraine was true and Trump Presidency, and reductions
– You have been leading a
CONVERSATIONS
debate launched by Aleksandr European Parliament monitoring honest, but not on par with the in numbers have been ongoing
– Belarus is an important neigh- Lukashenka is not a bad idea if mission in Ukraine together with preparedness of the administration. for a couple of decades. It has
– President Valdas Adamkus bor both for Lithuania/Poland and it brings to one table the most been unnecessarily politicized by
Pat Cox. How do you evaluate But in general terms, the reforms in
always mentions you as a key the EU as a whole. For instance, important parties. I think that Donald Trump and portrayed as
Ukraine today, six years since Ukraine have to be assessed very
partner during his time in office, Lithuania appreciates Poland’s Lukashenka is aware that retaining a measure to “punish” Germany
CONVERSATIONS
Maidan? Have the governments positively – Ukraine today is a dif-
describing it as a “golden age” in support with regard to the presidential power for 26 years is for its political “misbehavior” on
of Ukraine managed to meet the ferent country than it was in 2014.
Lithuanian-Polish relations. Now- Astravyets Nuclear Power plant in unprecedented in Europe, and that some political issues important
expectations of both the Ukraini- But much remains to be done.
adays, the relationship seems Belarus. On the other hand, there time for a transition will eventually to the US. That is wrong; politics
an people and Western partners
to have improved again, with seems to be a strong willingness come – in fact it has already come. should not overshadow strategic
in terms of reforms since then? – Do you think it is plausible
close dialog on energy (electric- from Western countries to open This is in fact the last bell. considerations. Although Poland
– Given the challenges, the new that at least one of the Eastern
ity connections, synchronization, would welcome an increased US
political elite has certainly achieved Partnership countries, namely
Nord Stream 2), infrastructure presence on Polish territory, it
a lot in recent years. Important Ukraine, Georgia or Moldova,
(Rail Baltica) and security issues should not take place at the ex-
reforms have been carried out will join the EU and/or NATO as
(NATO, US presence). What is pense of overall NATO capabilities
and many deadlocks broken, as a member state in the upcoming
the place of Lithuania in Polish in Europe. NATO troops should
in the case of the moratorium on decade (until 2030)?
foreign policy thinking? be allocated to Central Europe not
8
the sale of agriculture land. On – Yes, I think that it is totally plau- on a political whim, but as a result
– Lithuania was during my time
Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review
the other hand, the expectations sible that we will see these coun- of a collective decision based on
and is still a key strategic partner of were higher if we take into account tries joining both NATO and the common strategy, enhanced ca-
Poland. We are bound together by the level of popularity of President EU. But the political and economic pabilities and mutual interests.
many common interests, some of Zełensky at the beginning of his hurdles are much higher today
which you mentioned. We are also term. Today’s disappointment than they were back at the turn – China is the “elephant in the
bound together by common secu- seems therefore natural and was of the century. Their membership room” in any foreign policy dis-
rity challenges and policy vis-à-vis to be expected. With popularity depends much more on the mood cussion. Some say the relation-
our Eastern neighbors. Our econo- falling, the question is open wheth- in Western countries than was the ship between the US and China
mies have also grown together er the political elite will be able to case during previous waves of is currently comparable to the
throughout the years of EU mem- maintain the high pace of reforms. EU and NATO expansion, and will Cold War. Most EU countries, on
bership, which is so different from IMAGE: Round table talks during the Orange Revolution in Kiev, Ukraine, This will define the second part be decided on a “case-by-case” the other hand, seem to be trying
the period during which Valdas December 1, 2004. Sitting at the table, second from the left is Aleksander of Zełensky’s term in office and basis. But if the determination of to balance their relationship with
Adamkus and I were on the scene. Kwaśniewski, and fourth on the left is Valdas Adamkus, President of Lithu- decide his chances for re-election, these countries to reform persists, Beijing. Is there a choice that
Lithuania remains one of Poland’s ania (© Archiwum Kancelarii Prezydenta RP – www.prezydent.pl) if he decides to run again. and the numbers and indicators European countries must make
What I would like to see is estab- PiS divided society into “elites”
Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review
lishing some kind of a EU-wide and “true Poles” and fueled the ROBERT J. SHILLER
10 years ago I was technical supervisory agency that conflict between those parts of
society based on income, educa-
NOBEL LAUREATE is an internationally recognized
ROBERT J. SHILLER ON THE
would issue security certificates economist and author, currently
convinced while for key telecom and energy infra- tion, place of residence, religi- serving as a Sterling Professor of
in Beijing that the osity, etc. So we have another Economics at Yale University.
GLOBAL ECONOMY DURING
structure. Such a European body
military rise of would benefit from the experi- paradox – despite the fact that the He received his B.A. from the
transformation has enriched the
China was aimed
THE PANDEMIC: FORTUNATELY,
ences and accumulated technical University of Michigan in 1967
knowledge of all EU states to vast majority of Poles, PiS was and his Ph.D. in economics from
at erasing a painful effective in convincing those who the Massachusetts Institute of
LITHUANIA IS A PART OF THE EU
supervise the implementation of
past (and preventing equipment from both Chinese and were relatively less successful Technology in 1972. He has writ-
it from happening other manufacturers in the EU. that they were in fact losers in the ten on financial markets, financial
innovation, behavioral econom-
transformation, and that the elites
again), and not to In the geopolitical sphere, the achieved their success through a
ics, macroeconomics, real estate,
build a dominant question remains whether the corrupt political system that disfa-
statistical methods, and on public
attitudes, opinions, and moral
future. But that further rise of China will truly be a vored “ordinary” people.
11
peaceful one. I remember that 10 judgments regarding markets.
was during the rule years ago I was convinced while Independent institutions like the He was awarded the Nobel Prize
of Hu Jintao, the in Beijing that the military rise constitutional court, media or in Economic Sciences jointly with
predecessor of Xi of China was aimed at erasing rule of law were portrayed as Eugene Fama and Lars Peter
politically corrupt organizations
Jinping. I am not a painful past (and preventing it
that cement social and political
Hansen in 2013 for their empirical
analysis of asset prices.
from happening again), and not to
certain that I would
CONVERSATIONS
build a dominant future. But that inequalities, serving the interests Notably Mr. Shiller is of Lithu-
leave Beijing today was during the rule of Hu Jintao, of the “elites.” Therefore, they anian descent. His Lithuanian
with the same the predecessor of Xi Jinping. I needed to be “reconquered” by roots trace back to the 1800’s
forces that represent the interest
conviction as 10 am not certain that I would leave
of the people, in other words
when Lithuania was ruled by the
Russian Czar.
CONVERSATIONS
years ago. Beijing today with the same con-
the PiS party. The party and its
viction as 10 years ago.
political will, embodied by party
IMAGE: Robert Shiller during a visit to Lithuania in 2015 (© DELFI / Mindau- – The US is the biggest economy
– Poland has been in the spotlight leaders and not institutions, are
(either the U.S. or China, no gas Ažušilis)
in recent years because of its judi- portrayed as the only guardians in the world. Observers point to an
middle path?) Or is this debate
cial reforms and media regulation. of “social achievements”. interesting phenomenon: the US
superficial? Does Poland have a
This has complicated the country’s Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review behavior,” and the effort to make stock market has been growing
strategy on China? Against this background, the
relationship with EU institutions; belief and trust that Poles have Chief Editor Linas Kojala talks with them more contagious. What rapidly in recent months, while the
– I have observed certain political Mr. Shiller on the impact of the are the most important narra- macro economic forecasts remain
there has even been talk about in the EU is not enough to
efforts by the US administration to pandemic on the global economy, tives shaping Western behavior gloomy. For some, it sounds coun-
imposing sanctions on Poland. On pull them away from the PiS
force particular countries, despite as well as economic perspectives during these uncertain times and terintuitive. Is there a solid explana-
the other hand, the Polish popula- narrative. PiS is cautious in its
10
other interests and obligations for Lithuania. are these dominant narratives tion for it? Is it sustainable?
tion remains very much pro-Euro- policy against the EU, balancing
they may have, to block China in
pean. Is this a contradiction? How “national pride” with utilitarian- necessarily false?
areas like 5G infrastructure. Some – I published a 2020 paper1 that
Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review
do you see the situation evolving? – In your book “Narrative Eco-
ism, trying to navigate in such – There are dangerous narratives lists a number of narratives that
countries were resistant to such nomics” you argue that the
a manner that it does not burn have become epidemic in recent
pressure, such as Germany, some Yes, that fissure between the at- economics profession has been afloat today. Particularly troubling
bridges with Brussels. Ideas sur-
more willing to go along, such as titudes of currents policymakers slow to recognize the importance are narratives about conspiracies, years that might account for this,
faced among the Polish demo-
Poland. The problem is that we do and the population versus the EU of narratives. You describe a nar- like those about the “Deep State” especially in the United States. Con-
cratic opposition to force PiS to
not know exactly where is the line can be called a paradox. But the rative as a thought virus spread that is supposedly in control but stellations of narratives were discov-
declare its intention to eventually
between true security concerns explanation is simple – the issue by “the word-of-mouth contagion invisible, and narratives about the ered through systematic search by
leave the EU (like Brexit) and
and lobbying for one’s own prod- of the EU was not the principal of ideas in the form of stories.” abundance of “fake news” which Proquest News and Newspapers
utilize the pro-European attitudes
ucts. The explanations put forward driver of electorate decisions Narrative economics is “the study make it hard for people to temper that were indicated by keywords
of the electorate, but they have
by the US are not satisfactory for at the ballot box. The Law and of the viral spread of popular their emotions with a sense of “Great Depression,” “secular stag-
not succeeded.
many governments in Europe, Justice (PiS) party has repeatedly narratives that affect economic realism and fact. nation,” “sustainability,” “housing
and domestic security agencies won elections on the basis of
provide contradictory data. social and cultural issues. 1
Robert J.Shiller, Popular economic narratives advancing the longest U.S. expansion 2009–2019.
Journal of Policy Modeling Volume 42, Issue 4, July–August 2020, Pages 791-798
bubble,” “strong economy,” and strengthened by increasing inter- will be seen in the third quarter. I
Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review
UN AT 75.
“save more.” Everything changed national mistrust in recent years. would think it is reasonable, but not AUDRA
then in 2020 with the pandemic. We all need to work to improve inevitable, that Lithuania will rebound PLEPYTĖ
Keywords for the changes in nar- the sense of international com- too. A 2007 study3 of 167 countries is the
CHALLENGING THE
ratives in 2020, as I listed them in munity that will make decoupling from 1960 to 2000 found conclusive Permanent
a talk at the City University of New unnecessary. evidence that smaller countries have Representative
York, are “Coronavirus,” “Pan- more volatile GDP. of Lithuania
PAST AND FUTURE
demic,” “Donald Trump,” “Ameri- – Free trade as such is very benefi- to the United
Risk-sharing across regions in larger Nations (since 2017) and, on
can Dream,” “American greatness,” cial for small export-based econo-
countries works better if they have January 14, 2020, was elected
“Great Depression,” “quantitative mies such as Lithuania; however,
explicit institutions to share risk, as the Vice-President of the
easing,” and “trade war.” the rise of protectionist tendencies
such as the Equalization Program4 Bureau of the Executive Board
is clearly noticeable. What impact of the United Nations Children’s
– Rivalry between the US and in Canada that became part of their AUDRA PLEPYTĖ
do these global tendencies have Fund (UNICEF). Plepytė was
China seems to be encompassing constitution in 1982. In contrast, the
on countries such as Lithuania? Lithuania’s Ambassador to Spain,
all major spheres of international US has no such explicit program. A
Argentina and the World Tourism
relations, from trade and health – Fortunately, Lithuania has been 2017 study5 of the European Union
Calling 2020 ‘a historic year’ would Organization from 2010 until
13
care to geopolitics and IT. Experts part of the European Union since concluded that “Risk sharing through
be an understatement. It seems 2014. Previously she worked at
such as Niall Ferguson argue that 2004. A 2019 study2 showed that international public transfers is almost the Permanent Representation of
clear that we are all living through
the US and China are already in a free trade within the EU has pro- non-existent for all periods and coun-
a major turning point in history,
This unprecedented Lithuania to the European Union,
Cold War situation. Do you see it duced, on average, almost a ten tries analyzed.”
one that will be studied for years situation forces us, at the Lithuanian Mission to the
this way? percent increase in real GDP. The – Countries around the globe are dis- to come. In the year of a global once again, to reflect United Nations. Plepytė joined
the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in
2020 election cycle in the United
– Some are indeed arguing that cussing the need to increase invest- pandemic, amidst civil unrest and upon the relevance
ANALYSIS
States may signal a reduction in 1994. The author is grateful for
there is a new “cold war” be- ment in public health systems. While global turmoil, we also mark the
tween the US and China. Voices US-China conflict. the importance is clear, the costs of 75th anniversary of the signing of
of the UN today and contributions to the article from
the staff at Permanent Mission of
are heard in the US today that providing better care, more hospitals the Charter of the United Nations. to ask ourselves Lithuania to the UN.
the country cannot allow itself to – International experts predicted and specialists are extremely high.
This long-awaited celebration of
if the institution,
CONVERSATIONS
that Lithuania’s economy is going
become dependent on China for
to feel the negative consequences
Even countries such as the US seem
the UN anniversary is different. established some 75
goods that they might cut off in a to struggle to find the right balance
time of international tension. The of the pandemic and decline by between quality and spending. Do
The landmark 75th session of years ago, still serves IN SHORT
mistrust in the US and elsewhere almost 10 percent of GDP in 2020. you have any advice for decision-
the UN General Assembly (GA) humanity in the best • In recent years, criticism of
began on September 15. Yet,
that underlies such a consider- However, the most recent esti- makers in Europe and beyond?
the iconic lectern in the General
possible way. the UN, not least in the press,
ation is hard to repair. mates show that Lithuania’s GDP tended to overshadow its real
may only drop by 2 percent this – Income inequality is especially poi- Assembly Hall, from which kings, achievements.
year; a much lower estimate than gnant when it comes to health care. presidents, ministers and other
– The pandemic has triggered reflect upon the relevance of the • Beyond political façade, there
in many other European countries. The poor tend to die younger, by a leaders from the 193 UN member
a debate on the strengths and UN today and to ask ourselves if are hundreds of UN pro-
substantial margin. A 2012 study6 in states had addressed the world, grams, commissions, special-
weaknesses of our societies. Are small countries like Lithuania the institution, established some
Finland found that men in the highest stood idle. For the first time in the ized agencies and a range of
For instance, there is an urge to less vulnerable? 75 years ago, still serves human-
12
quintile of income lived 12.5 years history of the UN, heads of states other associated entities that
decrease Western dependence ity in the best possible way. How
– The US has already seen a more longer than men in the lowest quintile. and governments did not gather perform vital daily roles in sav-
on China as “the World’s factory”, should we frame and evaluate the
than 10 percent decline in per
Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review
For women, the gap was 6.8 years. at UN headquarters in New York ing lives, providing humanitar-
even if it leads to higher consumer achievements and failures of the
capita real GDP in the first two There is a major role for government for the high-level week. UN halls, ian assistance, promoting
costs and slower GDP growth. Do UN in today’s world? human welfare and prosperity,
quarters of this year. If this rate of in providing health insurance for its hallways and other physical meet-
you think such Western-Chinese and protecting and promoting
decline were to persist for the rest citizens. The US has been a laggard ing spaces, usually ringing with In recent years, criticism of the
economic decoupling is possible human rights.
of year, it would mean a more than on providing health insurance for its the vociferous multilingual chatter UN, not least in the press, tended
and desirable? • Only last year, well over 300
20% decline for the year. But it is citizens, because of a sometimes of the diplomatic jet set, remained to overshadow its real achieve-
– Unfortunately, the argument unlikely to continue at this rate, over-strong focus on individual choice ments. It is true that there have million children and their
silent as events were transferred
families received support,
for such decoupling has been and indications are that a rebound and responsibility. to UN WebTV broadcasts, virtual been (and remain) significant
assistance, services, and aid
meetings on Zoom, MS Teams reasons for criticism of the UN.
provided by UNICEF. The
and other platforms. But does it The Organization has not been
2
Jan in 't Veld, The economic benefits of the EU Single Market in goods and services. Journal of Policy Modeling, Vol. 41, Issue 5, September–October 2019, Organization has responded
Pages 803-818 even matter if the world’s politi- substantially reformed since its in- to 281 emergencies in 96
3
Davide Furceri, Georgios Karras, Country size and business cycle volatility: Scale really matters. Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, cal elite cannot meet in New York ception. Although its membership countries.
Vol. 21, Issue 4, December 2007, p. 424-434
this year? This unprecedented has risen dramatically, and major
4
Equalization Program. Government of Canada https://www.canada.ca/en/department-finance/programs/federal-transfers/equalization.html • Preserving and adapting the
5
Michela Nardo, Filippo Pericoli, Blanco Maria Del Pilar Poncela, Risk-sharing among European Countries. Publications Office of the European Union, 2017. situation forces us, once again, to changes in the world’s political multilateral system in today’s
6
Lasse Tarkiainen 1, Pekka Martikainen, Mikko Laaksonen, Tapani Valkonen, Trends in life expectancy by income from 1988 to 2007: decomposition by age world is of significant interest
and cause of death. Epidemiol Community Health. 2012 Jul; Vol. 66, Issue 7, p. 573-578.
to Lithuania.
Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review
Putin’s Russia is also
taking advantage of
current geopolitical
shifts, not least
by cementing its
convenience-led
alliance with China
IMAGE: A panorama of the United Nations General Assembly taken in October 2012 (© Wikimedia) at the UN Security
Council and thus
further paralyzing the
map have occurred over the de- actions that have resulted in work of the UNSC.
15
cades of its existence, the UN, and remarkable progress in such areas
especially its Security Council, is as peacekeeping and peacebuild-
still overwhelmingly influenced by ing, human rights and the Rule of
During the last 75
IMAGE: The five permanent members of the Security Council (China, that multilateralism in any form au-
the P-5, the five major global pow- Law, combating extreme poverty, years, the United tomatically contributes to a more
France, Russia, United Kingdom, and United States) enjoy the privilege of
ers from the late 1940s. Prolonged ensuring food security and provid- Nations has provided veto power (© Astrid Riecken for CTBTO) stable and secure world. Today’s
political discussions and lack of ing assistance in health services, the international global challenges to multilateralism
ANALYSIS
political will to commit to long-term
reform goals are overshadowing
education and sanitation. Agenda community with a come not only from actors that are
2030 and a set of 17 Sustainable actively contesting the underpin-
actual achievements of the Orga- Development Goals are milestone
global platform for the Executive Board of UNICEF China has made a significant
nings of the rules-based multilat-
nization. While it is true that certain agreements in fostering social dialogue and enabled and will hold the Presidency of shift from its guiding philosophy
eral order, it is also driven by the
the Board in 2021. The Board of “Hide your strength, bide your
things must be improved, lack of cohesion, addressing inequality concerted actions collectively provides guidance for time, never take the lead” to a real
clash between democratic and
progress on the reform track does and ensuring that no one is left be- that have resulted in authoritarian regimes. In order to
ANALYSIS
not equate to overall inaptitude of UNICEF activities. effort to increase its presence and
hind. Through the adoption of the
the Organization. Universal Declaration of Human
remarkable progress Being a member-state owned
influence in the multilateral system
restructure and reinforce multilat-
eral order in today’s world, values
Too often in the public discourse, Rights, two Covenants and nu- in such areas as and driven organization, the UN
by obtaining important first-level
and principles must be restored
understanding of the UN is merous conventions, the UN made peacekeeping and not only has to deal with its own
positions and second-level post-
as a core consideration for how
ings in UN bodies. Putin’s Russia
limited to the decisions of the a rather revolutionary commitment peacebuilding, internal challenges and strive for
is also taking advantage of current democratic nations consider
that has been translated into inter-
UN Security Council or high-level human rights and efficiency, it is also a reflection of
geopolitical shifts, not least by membership and participation in
political discussions in New York national human rights law, with the global geopolitical currents and
or Geneva. But beyond political protection of individual rights and the Rule of Law, transformations. Today’s shifting
cementing its convenience-led alli- the range of multilateral institu-
tions, fora, and coalitions.
combating extreme ance with China at the UN Security
14
façade, there are hundreds of UN freedoms at its core. This has in geopolitical sands have created
Council and thus further paralyzing
programs, commissions, special- turn inspired a tremendously rich poverty, ensuring food the space for a new age of great
the work of the UNSC.
The 75th anniversary of the UN
provides us with a reality check:
security and providing
Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review
ized agencies and a range of other body of legally binding international power competition. The U.S. is
associated entities that perform human rights treaties through turning a cold shoulder to the UN, This is bad news for the United from the pandemic and issues of
vital daily roles in saving lives, which human rights are expressed
assistance in health disengaging from international Nations and its smaller member inequality, to the climate emer-
providing humanitarian assistance, and secured. The work of the spe- services, education agreements and leaving the UN’s states, such as Lithuania. The gency, battles over new technol-
promoting human welfare and cialized agencies and programs of and sanitation. specialized organizations. In the jungle of great-powers competi- ogies such as 5G and the virtual
prosperity, and protecting and the UN makes the biggest differ- meantime, China, which has been tion means less global stability UNGA. Just as the pandemic has
promoting human rights. The UN ence on the ground and is proof extending its influence worldwide and increasing global insecurity, forced to us to rapidly change
contribution to world security, of the UN’s capability to deliver. This huge amount of work globally during the last decade via its as well as devaluation of power the way we do business, the UN
peace and prosperity is best seen Only last year, well over 300 million is a constant lifeline, ensuring that development aid, investments from multilateral institutions. Pre- cannot continue “business as
in retrospect. During the last 75 children and their families received more children’s lives are saved and in strategic and infrastructure serving and adapting the multi- usual” either. The UN’s ability to
years, the United Nations has support, assistance, services, their quality of life improved, while projects, etc., appears more than lateral system in today’s world is adapt is slow, yet as long as this
provided the international com- and aid provided by UNICEF. The providing them with opportunities eager to fill this void. Bolstered of significant interest to Lithuania. Organization remains capable
munity with a global platform for Organization has responded to for a better future. Since 2019, by technological developments Yet, it is important to stress that of reinventing itself, I will remain
dialogue and enabled concerted 281 emergencies in 96 countries. Lithuania has been a member of and its unrivaled export economy, it cannot be generally assumed optimistic about its future.
Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review
COVID LEAVES
DAVID A.
ANDELMAN, For decades, oil had
a Harvard-
educated been the lubricant
enabling all varieties
PUTIN UNDETERRED
historian
and formerly
a foreign
of Russian adventures
correspondent for The New York and efforts to expand
DAVID A. ANDELMAN Times and CBS News in Europe or solidify political,
and Asia, is Executive Director
of The RedLines Project, a
diplomatic and military
columnist at CNN and two-time red lines critical to
winner of the Deadline Club Putin’s strategic
Award for Best Opinion Writing.
Author of “A Shattered Peace:
vision in Russia’s near
For Russia, and Vladimir Putin, put some brakes on the plunge – Versailles 1919 and the Price abroad and further
17
the novel coronavirus would ap- by September prices had leveled We Pay Today,” the forthcoming afield as well. Now,
“A Red Line in the Sand:
pear, at first blush, to have been off at the low $40s per barrel, still a
Diplomacy, Strategy and the
however, with the
the opportunity of a lifetime. On third lower than at the start of the
the one hand, while so many of year. By then, Russia was hardly History of Wars That Could Still global shutdown of
Russia’s long-held targets were feeling the pain.
Happen,” and its accompanying business, travel and all
Evergreen podcast, he can
all but prostrated by the sweep of varieties of economic
ANALYSIS
Years of coping with sanctions and be followed on Twitter @ IMAGE: US President Barack Obama and Russia's President Dmitry
this pandemic across their nations,
fiscal isolation had left Russia’s DavidAndelman. activity, the need for Medvedev signed the START treaty on nuclear weapons in 2010 (seen
Russia and Putin were in the rather
enviable position of being able to
economy in relatively good shape. oil began to dry up. here in 2009, @Mika Stetsovski)
Unable to borrow abroad even
work their will on their foes, and
clasp their friends even closer.
before the pandemic, its largest IN SHORT
corporations were all but debt-
• Russia also had no apparent rate of 5,000 per day.1 As a result, jobs to him and could not avoid
For decades, oil had been the free, their coffers bulging with cash
ANALYSIS
strategy for controlling the
lubricant enabling all varieties of they could not spend fast enough. Russia sealed its borders to out- shouldering the blame for the
Covid-19 spread, especially in
side visitors.
Russian adventures and efforts And Russia was virtually self- the vast territories outside of
spread of the pandemic to their
The catastrophic
to expand or solidify political, sufficient in agricultural output. At regions. In August, Russia proudly
diplomatic and military red lines the same time, Putin was insulat-
Moscow. Much of this could
be attributed to some core
Russia also had no apparent
proclaimed it had developed the
surge of the
strategy for controlling the spread,
critical to Putin’s strategic vision in ing himself from the toxic effects of tenets of Putin’s governance especially in the vast territories world’s first coronavirus vaccine. pandemic across
Russia’s near abroad and further the pandemic that had begun to • Russia seemed often simply outside of Moscow. Much of this But without any valid clinical trials, Russia might have
afield as well. Now, however, with spread all but unchecked across to be trying to take advantage could be attributed to some core it was largely rejected beyond deterred another
the global shutdown of business, Russia. Covid-19 did force Putin to of the global chaos triggered tenets of Putin’s governance. Russia as being of questionable leader from some
16
travel and all varieties of economic postpone the nationwide referen- by the pandemic to push effectiveness.
From the beginning, he stepped
activity, the need for oil began to dum on a change in the Russian some of its central goals
back from what rapidly seemed
of the more blatant
“adventures,” but in
Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review
dry up. Prices began to plummet, constitution that would allow him • The glass-is-half-full to be turning into the greatest RUSSIAN ADVENTURISM
from a high of $63 a barrel for the effectively to serve as president perspective is that the pan-
demic will at some point –
single challenge to his presidency. The catastrophic surge of the the case of Putin and
benchmark WTI crude in January for life, a referendum that he
2020 to $14 three months later. By would eventually win. Meanwhile, and we have certainly not
Officials did manage to contain pandemic across Russia might Russia, that did not
somewhat the spread of the virus
early April, the pain had become Russia was being ravaged by the
reached the end game by
in Moscow. Elsewhere, however,
have deterred another leader from appear to have been
so intense that Russia and Saudi coronavirus. By September 1, the
any stretch of the imagina-
tion – force dictators like Pu- Putin chose to place the admin-
some of the more blatant “ad- the case.
Arabia agreed to substantial oil country had passed the 1 million ventures,” but in the case of Putin
tin to restrain their appetites istration of the crisis largely in the
production cutbacks and OPEC mark in the number of confirmed and Russia, that did not appear to
and adjust their goals while hands of provincial governors and to ongoing support of strategic and
quickly ratified the action, all in an cases, the world’s fourth largest have been the case. Campaigns
they deal with a virus in their mayors, most of whom owe their military activities in regions of the
effort to restore some equilibrium after the United States, Brazil and own territories that respects ranging from broad disinformation
world long viewed as strategic by
in supply and demand and return India, and more than double the no edict or fist, no matter 1
WHO Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard, WHO, 2020 the Kremlin continued unabated.
oil prices to some vestige of pre- nearest country in Europe (Spain). how firmly clenched.
pandemic levels. This may have And the cases were rising at the
Indeed, Russia seemed often already resorting to measures that
Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review
simply to be taking advantage of his military had perfected while
the global chaos triggered by the intervening in the U.S. presidential
pandemic to push some of its elections of 2016 – a propaganda,
Throughout the
central goals. And in the age of the media and social media campaign darkest months of
pandemic, Putin’s actions were designed to bolster Lukashenko the pandemic, the
proving increasingly flagrant. and undermine the more vocal Russian military
but less adroit opposition. This
Putin’s toxic circle, particularly of
disinformation apparatus was in no
also continued to
disinformation, began, not surpris-
way deterred by the pandemic. flex its muscles and
ingly, closest to home. As early as
Throughout the darkest months
demonstrate its
mid-March, the Russian state-
dominated news agency Sputnik of the pandemic, the Russian preparedness.
was proclaiming that “very smart military also continued to flex its
biologists and pharmacists” in muscles and demonstrate its pre-
and operations. In mid-March,
Latvia invented the Covid-19 paredness. Velikiy accompanied
Russian Defense Minister Sergei
19
virus.2 As the pandemic continued by the missile cruiser Marshal
Shoigu traveled to Damascus “on
to spread, other threads of the Ustinov, engaged in live-fire exer-
President Putin’s instructions” to
Russian manipulation machine did cises that included cruise missile
meet with Syrian President Bashar
not cease to spin and indeed only launches over 250,000 square
al-Assad. Help with the burgeon-
continued to expand. In late July, kilometers in the Barents and
ing coronavirus crisis in Syria was
in a classified briefing for mem- Norwegian Seas. Norway’s De-
high on the agenda.7 Syria’s official
ANALYSIS
bers of Congress, top American fense Chief Haakon Bruun-Han-
request included test kits, personal
counterintelligence officer William sen said that the objective of the
protection equipment, and medical
Evanina reported that Russia was maneuvers was to test Russia’s
devices including ventilators. Two
again, as it had in 2016, making ability to block NATO’s access to
days later, countries already under
every effort to boost the fortunes the Baltic, North, and Norwegian
various sanctions – Russia, as well
of Donald Trump and destroy his Seas. “This is an exercise where
as China, Iran, Syria, Venezuela, IMAGE: View to the Ramstein Air Base, Germany, serves as headquarters for U.S. Air Forces in Europe and is also
Russia seeks to protect its terri-
ANALYSIS
opponent, Joe Biden.3 Later, at North Korea, and Nicaragua – ap- a North Atlantic Treaty Organization installation. (© Beowulf Tomek)
the height of demonstrations in tory and its interests by deploying
pealed to UN Secretary General
neighboring Belarus, seeking to highly capable ships, submarines
António Guterres to ease these
topple that nation’s autocratic and aircraft with the purpose of
measures, in an effort to halt the
president, Aleksandr Lukashenko, preventing NATO from operating of offering help with containing the At the same time, the United from West Africa, announced
spread of the pandemic in their
after a clearly manipulated elec- in the area,” Bruun-Hansen said.5 spread of the coronavirus. States was playing right into before the pandemic struck, was
nations. There was no response
tion, Putin warned in a broadcast A month later, the Russian navy Putin’s hands. Over the past expected to be accompanied
to the plea. Still, Putin continued Meanwhile, in early April, Russia
on Russian state television that embarked on the largest series of year, Trump and his defense by a shutdown of a $110 million
on the offensive, discussing how began reaching into territories
live-fire exercises off the coast of secretary Mark Esper announced drone base in Niger, as well as
these protestors should not push Russia might come to the aid of of potential NATO expansion,
18
Alaska since the end of the Cold withdrawals of American armed the halt of assistance to French
too hard. He had created, he said, Turkish president Recep Tayyip deploying chemical, biological,
War – some 50 warships and 40 forces from Germany, the Middle forces fighting militants in Mali,
a “certain reserve of law enforce- Erdogan, Iranian prime minister radiological, and nuclear defense
Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review
aircraft took part in the Bering Sea
ment officers” prepared to inter- Hassan Rouhani, even Israeli prime military units to Serbia to help in East, and Africa, canceling critical Niger, and Burkina Faso.10 Also
maneuvers, which also involved
vene. The specter of Hungary in minister Benjamin Netanyahu. decontamination and disinfec- arms treaties. In June, the United taking the pressure off Putin’s
multiple missile launches.6
1956 and Czechoslovakia in 1968 Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail tion efforts against the spread of States announced plans to with- missile forces, Trump had already
was still all too fresh. One Belarus Putin saw the Covid-19 crisis Bogdanov talked by phone with Covid-19.8 Serbia has been toying draw 9,500 of the 34,500 troops announced he was pulling out of
investigative journalist Hanna in the Middle East as an op- Ismail Haniyeh, head of Hamas’s with NATO membership. And Rus- deployed to Germany. Some the Intermediate Nuclear Force
Liubakova suggested4 Putin was portunity to expand his reach political bureau with the same aim sia has been cementing relations would be deployed elsewhere in (INF) treaty with Russia11 and the
with such near-beyond states as Europe, but as many as 6,000 Open Skies Treaty,12 and was
Armenia and Kazakhstan, offering would be returning to the United contemplating an end to the
2
Is Russia running a coronavirus disinformation campaign?, DW, March, 2020
similar help. States.9 A substantial withdrawal 2010 New Strategic Arms Reduc-
3
Pelosi upbraids counterintel chief in private briefing over Russian meddling. Politico, July, 2020
4
Hanna Liubakova, Russia may not need to invade Belarus. It’s already there. Washington Post, August, 2020
5
More than 30 Russian naval vessels open fire in large-scale Barents Sea war games. The Barents Observer, July, 2020
6
Russian navy conducts major maneuvers near Alaska. Military Times, August, 2020. 8
Russia sends medical aid to Serbia to fight coronavirus. Reuters, April, 2020.
7
Intel: Why Russia is getting involved in Mideast COVID-19 fight. Al Monitor, April, 2020. 9
Trump approves Pentagon plan to pull 9,500 US troops from Germany. Military Times, June, 2020.You can also read
