Market trends For week ending March 25, 2022 - Performance Foodservice

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Market trends For week ending March 25, 2022 - Performance Foodservice
market trends
For week ending March 25, 2022
Market trends For week ending March 25, 2022 - Performance Foodservice
market trends
WEek ending March 25, 2022

Produce

MARKET OVERVIEW
                                                                                           MARKET ALERT
The lime market continues to struggle, particularly on large-sized
                                                                        •    Avocados – ESCALATED
fruit, and we expect to see reports on low yields through April. We
                                                                        •    Bananas – ESCALATED
are hoping to see some relief on small-sized fruit over the next few    •    Bell Pepper (Green) - ESCALATED
weeks, but between limited supply, logistics, and political pressure,   •    Carrots (Jumbo) – ESCALATED
we will see a very active market for the rest of the month, at the      •    Cauliflower – ESCALATED
very least. Avocado markets remain firm and are expected to do          •    Celery - ESCALATED
so over the next several weeks, particularly on larger-sized fruit.     •    Corn – ESCALATED
Field pricing remains strong due to lower-than-expected yields,         •    Cucumbers – ESCALATED
and we are seeing much higher demand this week in Mexico for            •    Garlic – EXTREME
fruit which is pulling from the export allocations due to Lent.         •    Ginger – EXTREME
                                                                        •    Grapes – ESCALATED
Regarding dry veg, moderate weather has allowed for stable              •    Lettuce (Green Leaf & Butter) - ESCALATED
volume crossing through Nogales and McAllen on eggplant and             •    Lettuce (Iceberg) - EXTREME
peppers, but demand from the east will keep markets elevated.           •    Limes – EXTREME/FORCE MAJEURE
Cucumber volume has ramped back up out of Mexico while in               •    Mushrooms – EXTREME
the east. We will need to keep a close watch on the weather this        •    Pineapple – ESCALATED
weekend, with a blast of cold air approaching that could affect         •    Romaine & Romaine Hearts – EXTREME
spring crops. Import cucumbers from Honduras are mostly done            •    Soft Squash (Yellow and Green) - ESCALATED
for the season, and we are seeing a bumpy transition to Florida as                           WATCH LIST
production ramps up over the next week. Eggplant is also easing
                                                                        •    Arugula
up out of the east, and Zucchini and Yellow Squash are limited
                                                                        •    Florida Fruit & Veg
in Florida as well as Mexico due to weather related pressure.           •    Green Beans
Import tomatoes from Mexico continue to be stable, and quality          •    Snow Peas
is outstanding, although in Florida we continue to assess the core
tomato items (rounds and romas) which were impacted by the
freeze late last month.
Corn out of Florida tightened up, prices jumped this week, and
demand was very good. As previously reported, this will be a                TRANSPORTATION
hit and miss market as we navigate through damages done to                  The leading topic of discussion over the last few
the crop from weather related pressure. Table grape volume is               weeks has been in regards to the extensive fuel
gradually improving from Chile; however, we continue to see some            increase. Unfortunately, we don’t anticipate an
logistical challenges at the ports. With marginal demand and                end in sight for quite some time. Diesel hit another
additional volume shipping to the U.S., markets should ease over            record high with an average cost of $5.250 per
the next few weeks. Banana volume continues to be below normal              gallon. This is up $0.401 over last week and
but should improve over the next several weeks, and shippers                $1.146 in the last two weeks. The rapid increases
will navigate through the issue with lighter volume yet continue to         are causing rates to shoot up everywhere. With
struggle with color and strong demand in all sectors. They will be          some regions of California seeing diesel rates over
behind on color until they can get ahead of the shortfalls.                 $7 per gallon, the cost to send a truck to the West
                                                                            Coast has gone up immensely.
                                                                            As the weather warms up, produce is starting
                                                                            to ship out of various regions, including Texas,
                                                                            California, and many other southern states.
                                                                            Surging fuel prices, produce season, and
                                                                            general economic uncertainty due to the ongoing
                                                                            crisis in Ukraine is creating a perfect storm of
                                                                            unpredictability in the transportation market. If
                                                                            fuel does not stabilize soon, we’ll either see rates
                                                                            reach record breaking levels or carriers will begin
                                                                            to close their doors.

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Market trends For week ending March 25, 2022 - Performance Foodservice
market trends
WEek ending March 25, 2022

Produce (continued)

  YUMA, AZ FORECAST

FRUITS & VEGETABLES                                                  BERRIES
Apples & Pears                                                       Blackberries
Apples: West coast new crop apples are being packed;                 Transition period between the mid and late part of the central
however small sizes remain tight. East coast apples are              Mexico season has begun. Expect lighter supply to continue for
available as well. Market price remains firm on small fruit as       2-3 weeks and then after late March, expect supply to increase
local schools take most of the volume.                               as we approach the central Mexico spring peak. The California
Pears: This year’s pear crop was down significantly, with mostly     regions will slow down for the next two months.
larger fruit available. Growers are trying to drag out supply as
best as possible until new crop starts next August.                  Blueberries
                                                                     Supply will continue to increase, driven mainly by Central
Avocados                                                             Mexico. Central Mexico production is in their spring peak this
ESCALATED: We expect to see firm markets continue as the             week and next. Baja production is continuing to increase, and
supply of normal crops remains below expectations, particularly      South American production is finished for the season. Florida
on larger-sized fruit. The size curve out of Mexico continues to     production has begun, and we will see increasing volumes over
run small (70’s and smaller). This time last year 40s and larger     the next few weeks.
accounted for almost 20% of the crop, and it’s running close to
10% this year. Large-sized fruit is expected to be tight through
June, when we expect the first big portion of Peruvian fruit to
arrive. In Mexico, March is when we see the shift start from the
normal crop to Marceña crop. Overall demand within Mexico is
higher this week due to Lent, which puts additional pressure on
domestic pricing as markets remain firm. California production
remains steady but should increase in April, the size curve is
leaning heavily to smaller-sized fruit, quality is excellent.

Bananas
ESCALATED: Banana availability is picking up, and so is the
quality. The weather is improving, and the issues in Europe are
increasing the supply as less fruit is being shipped there.

Grapes
ESCALATED: Weather in Chile is going perfectly for grapes
and has been for a few weeks, which is increasing the supplies
being imported into the U.S. Red Grape pricing continues to
be low with plenty of supply. Greens remain higher as fewer
supplies have been shipped.

Pineapples
ESCALATED: Pineapple availability continues to be okay.
The size profile is trending to size 5s. This is a result of great
growing conditions.

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Market trends For week ending March 25, 2022 - Performance Foodservice
market trends
WEek ending March 25, 2022

Produce (continued)

Raspberries                                                          WEST COAST LETTUCE
We are seeing lower than expected volume due to faster down
                                                                     Butter Lettuce
trends out of Mexico. Current volume should continue steadily
                                                                     ESCALATED: The market is stronger, and quality is good, but
over the next couple of weeks and then up trend towards the
                                                                     expect lighter supply from many shippers.
spring peak. Mexico will continue to be the largest contributor
over the next six weeks.
                                                                     Green Leaf
                                                                     ESCALATED: Quality in the desert is good and slightly lighter
Strawberries
                                                                     in color and appearance with occasional fringe and windburn.
Overall volume remains steady for the next couple of weeks.
                                                                     Sizing is 8-9” and markets are stronger, and demand
Volume out of Central Mexico and Florida will be decreasing
                                                                     continues to increase as many are looking to green leaf as a
moving forward as they are prioritizing acreage with favorable
                                                                     less expensive alternative to lettuce and romaine.
fruit quality. Oxnard is expected to slightly increase as they
have been receiving cooler weather which is expected to
                                                                     Red Leaf
improve fruit size. Volume will be slowly increasing each week
                                                                     Supply is lighter, but quality remains good. Demand is good,
going forward.
                                                                     pricing is stronger.

CALIFORNIA CITRUS                                                    Romaine and Iceberg
Grapefruit                                                           EXTREME: Blister, peel, and fringe burn are still prevalent,
Ruby grapefruit now available. Size is peaking on 32s and            along with many shippers hitting gaps in production as desert
larger fancy and all small sizes 36s and smaller are tight. Texas    growing areas are changing. We are still expecting much
is expected to start very late.                                      volatility in the marketplace as we head into the last portion of
                                                                     the Yuma season.
Imports/Specialties
Bloods and Cara Caras are available in good supply.
Clementines are done. Murcotts / minneolas are available in
good supply.

Lemons
Are in full swing, quality has been good.

Limes
EXTREME/FORCE MAJEURE: Growers anticipated the lime
market to begin to decline at the end of March/beginning of
April. Unfortunately, product blooming on the trees is not sizing
up and becoming a challenge for growers. The lack of size is
a result of the inclement weather that Mexico has experienced
over the last six months. Sizing is dominated by smaller
sized fruit (230 counts), and 110/150 counts are practically
non-existent and is expected to trend toward smaller sized
fruit for the next 4-7 weeks. Higher pricing, especially on
larger-sized fruit, will likely remain during this timeframe. This
will impact all clients, and we may see distributor blended
costs.

Oranges
Availability on small sizes have decreased, still mostly fancy
grade, and pricing around the high teens.

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Market trends For week ending March 25, 2022 - Performance Foodservice
market trends
WEek ending March 25, 2022

Produce (continued)

EASTERN & WESTERN VEGETABLES                                        Eggplant (East)
                                                                    Production remains limited but does not expect any issues.
Bell Peppers
                                                                    We should see relatively smooth markets once we transition to
Drop in production out of Mexico coupled with inadequate
                                                                    Central Florida in 2-3 weeks. Excellent supply crossing through
supplies out of Florida are forcing pricing on green bell peppers
                                                                    Nogales and quality is very nice out of both regions. Transition
to react to a $20 FOB range from coast to coast. We should
                                                                    to Coachella will be in early May.
see active markets for the foreseeable future. The red bell
market has firmed up this week.
                                                                    French Beans
                                                                    WATCHLIST: Volume remains stable, quality is strong, and
Cucumbers
                                                                    prices are rising due to the lack of green beans.
ESCALATED: Markets have been active. We’re seeing a
gap in production out of Mexico due to colder than normal
                                                                    Green Beans
temperatures. The supply should start improving in the next
                                                                    WATCHLIST: Bean supply will remain mixed through the
few weeks. Florida is still another week to two away from
                                                                    remainder of the Winter Florida crop due to weather related
heavier production. The demand has been strong.
                                                                    pressure. We expect some improvement once we transition
                                                                    to Central Florida over the next few weeks. In the west, supply
                                                                    will continue to be below forecast through April. Overall quality
                                                                    out of both locations is fair.

                                                                    Jalapenos/Chili Peppers
                                                                    Although a few new fields have started in south FL, yields have
                                                                    been really light, and chili pepper supply is still very limited. At
                                                                    this point, it looks to be a similar situation with limited volume
                                                                    and varieties until mid-April when Plant City gets started in
                                                                    earnest. FOBs are mostly steady on the available varieties.

                                                                    Mini Sweet Peppers
                                                                    Supply good loading in Nogales and quality very nice.

                                                                    Pickles
                                                                    Supply was lighter this week crossing through Nogales and
                                                                    quality is very nice.

                                                                    Zucchini/Yellow Squash
                                                                    ESCALATED: We’re seeing volume drops out of Mexico
                                                                    following cooler than normal weather. Florida is still struggling
                                                                    with lower harvest numbers. The quality out of both regions
                                                                    has been fair. We’re expecting to see improvements out
                                                                    of both regions in the following few weeks as the weather
                                                                    improves.

                                                                    HERBS
                                                                    Tarragon
                                                                    TARRAGON is the only major herb that is having supply issues
                                                                    this week. This shortage should continue for about 4-6 weeks,
                                                                    but we are hopeful for less time.

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Market trends For week ending March 25, 2022 - Performance Foodservice
market trends
WEek ending March 25, 2022

Produce (continued)

MELONS                                                             Honeydew
                                                                   Honeydew production continues at moderate levels with
Cantaloupe (Hot Buy)
                                                                   enough to satisfy contract business plus some open market
Strong volume continues with cantaloupe into all ports.
                                                                   opportunities. We do not anticipate drastic changes to this
Sizing has shifted from being heavier to 12/15s last week to
                                                                   pattern. Markets remain strong with larger fruit being in very
9/9Js followed by 12s. This is more conducive for the retail
                                                                   good demand as arrivals lean more to 6/8s this week.
demand that is in place over the next few weeks with strong
promotions planned. We are beginning to see true Spring-time
                                                                   Watermelon
characteristics with better shell color, sizing, and higher brix
                                                                   Seedless watermelons (offshore crop) are gapping this week
levels.
                                                                   and early next week out of Guatemala due to a high windstorm
                                                                   two weeks ago that has impacted harvesting last week and
                                                                   this week. We hope to be back on schedule by later next
                                                                   week and ride out the rest of the month until our season
                                                                   finishes. Mexican supply is drastically reduced and expected
                                                                   to stay this way over the next few weeks.

                                                                   MIXED VEGETABLES
                                                                   Artichokes
                                                                   Artichokes will have frost damage from recent weather
                                                                   impacts, but supply is improving. This is not unusual for this
                                                                   time of year as cold nighttime temperatures will affect the
                                                                   artichokes still on the plants. Some of the frost areas will turn
                                                                   brown over the next few days after packing creating some
                                                                   additional discoloration as well.

                                                                   Arugula
                                                                   Quality is improving

                                                                   Asparagus
                                                                   The asparagus situation continues to worsen out of Mexico as
                                                                   cool weather continues to slow growth. Cool weather is still in
                                                                   the forecast through this week, so we will continue to see light
                                                                   supply through the first week of March. On the positive side,
                                                                   there is warm weather in the forecast for late next week, so we
                                                                   are expecting supply to increase by mid-March.

                                                                   Bok Choy
                                                                   Supplies are still below normal volume but improving, quality is
                                                                   good.

                                                                   Broccoli/Broccoli Florets
                                                                   Supply is good with very good quality.

                                                                   Brussels Sprouts
                                                                   Volume continues to be strong. Expect to see strong volume
                                                                   and soft market for the next few weeks. Quality is very good.

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Market trends For week ending March 25, 2022 - Performance Foodservice
market trends
WEek ending March 25, 2022

Produce (continued)

Carrots                                                            Cilantro
ESCALATED: With the carrot growing areas in California             This is actually an ideal time for cilantro. Quality and supplies
moving to the Desert growing regions, we are seeing smaller        are excellent, and with the cold weather behind us, Springtime
sizing, increasing pressure on Jumbo Carrot supplies that are      is the best for quality and consistency.
already short in supply. In addition, Carrot sticks are packed
from jumbo carrot supplies, so the smaller sizing will affect      Corn
carrot stick supplies. The supply forecast is for smaller sizing   Demand and lighter production have driven prices up several
to continue throughout the desert growing season, and market       dollars this week. We still anticipate a bumpy ride over the next
will remain strong                                                 few weeks as growers may see damage from the crop from
                                                                   our last round of weather. We expect losses to impact the
Cauliflower                                                        markets for the remainder of the winter season. In the west,
ESCALATED: Quality is very good, although supplies are             supply is stable crossing through Nogales and demand was
expected to remain lighter                                         higher.

Celery                                                             Fennel
ESCALATED: Lighter supplies continue with light supplies,          Supply remains extremely light.
market remains active.
                                                                   Garlic
                                                                   EXTREME: Domestic supply is also very tight. Shippers are
                                                                   holding to averages, but we expect this volatile market to
                                                                   continue through next summer.

                                                                   Ginger
                                                                   EXTREME: Ginger is very volatile due to inconsistent supply
                                                                   and higher market. Supply remains tight for the foreseeable
                                                                   future.

                                                                   Green Cabbage
                                                                   Post St Patrick’s day availability is stable in Florida and Texas.
                                                                   In the west, weights are improving because of crop movement
                                                                   although we are seeing cone shape heads for this week.

                                                                   Green Onions
                                                                   Good supplies with good quality.

                                                                   Jicama
                                                                   Steady supply available crossing through McAllen.

                                                                   Kale (Green)
                                                                   Supply is steady.

                                                                   Mushrooms
                                                                   EXTREME: Quality is good, although supply is extremely short,
                                                                   and the market is higher primarily due to a lack of labor and
                                                                   shortages in growing components such as peat moss. We
                                                                   continue to see this ongoing trend and hope to see some
                                                                   retreat this quarter.

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Market trends For week ending March 25, 2022 - Performance Foodservice
market trends
WEek ending March 25, 2022

Produce (continued)

Napa Cabbage                                                       POTATOES
Volume and quality are both good, market continues to be
                                                                   We saw Idaho carton availability tighten up a little this week
steady
                                                                   with less availability on 60/70/80cts. The size profile is
                                                                   becoming smaller and smaller as the season goes on, and
Parsely (Curly, Italian)
                                                                   many sheds were looking to move volume on non-A sizes
Parsley supplies are expected to be steady this week.
                                                                   and bales. We expect the already short crop to get more
                                                                   challenging as we approach the summer months. We are
Rapini
                                                                   encouraging our customers to plan their potato orders a week
Excellent supply this week and next.
                                                                   in advance to make sure their coolers are stocked.
Red Cabbage
Supply is good out of Holtville. Quality remains consistent with
                                                                   TOMATOES
sizing and overall appearance.
                                                                   Markets out of Mexico and Florida are steady this week.
Snow Peas                                                          Adequate supplies and average demand are keeping the
Good volume, quality, and low demand.                              market pricing on rounds, romas, and grapes at minimums out
                                                                   of Mexico. Quality has been strong, with minimal issues being
Sugar Snap Peas                                                    reported. We’re seeing lighter supplies out of Florida however;
Good volume, good quality, and low demand.                         the average demand is keeping the pricing in check for now.

Spinach (Bunched & Baby)
Supply and quality are good this week.

Spring Mix
Supply and quality are good.

Sweet Potatoes & Yams
New crop cured is in full swing with heavy shipments over the
holidays. Growing conditions were optimal for this year’s crop
out of North Carolina and Mississippi. Expect good supply with
a wide size variety.

ONIONS
Mexican onion crossings increased this week, and we are
seeing a good amount of volume on all sizes and colors
shipping out of the McAllen area. Prices settled down on new
crops to be more in line with prices out of the Northwest.
As the storage crop winds down, quality continues to be a
concern, with more and more people switching to the new
crop. Domestic new crop yellows are also available, with reds
expected to follow as soon as next week.

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Market trends For week ending March 25, 2022 - Performance Foodservice
market trends
WEek ending march 25, 2022

Beef, Veal & Lamb
Last week, beef production declined 1.6% (w/w) but was up 0.9% (y/y). Year-to-date beef output is running 0.2% less than
a year ago. Last week, nearby CME live cattle futures were higher by 1.1% (w/w) and are down 3.2% over the last three
months. In its March WASDE report, the USDA raised its 2022 beef production forecast by 195k pounds but is still expected
to be 1.3% smaller than 2021. The continued weakness of the USDA Choice boxed-beef cutout is good news, but as the
spring grilling season approaches, the downside potential may be only modest. The retail CPI ground beef index during Feb-
ruary was 13.6% higher (y/y) and the third highest for any month on record. During the last 10 years, the 90% beef trim and
50% beef trim markets averaged (cumulative) 4.0% and 27.9% higher during Q2 compared to the average in the previous Q1.
The Average, USDA, FOB per pound.

         Description           Market Trend      Supplies        Price vs. Last Year
Live Cattle (Steer)             Decreasing        Steady               Higher
Feeder Cattle Index (CME)       Decreasing        Steady               Higher
Ground Beef 81/19               Decreasing       Available             Higher
Ground Chuck                    Decreasing       Available             Higher
109 Export Rib (ch)             Decreasing       Available              Lower
109 Export Rib (pr)             Decreasing       Available             Higher
112a Ribeye (ch)                Increasing       Available              Lower
112a Ribeye (pr)                Decreasing       Available             Higher
114a Chuck, Shlder Cld(ch)      Decreasing       Available             Higher
116 Chuck (sel)                 Decreasing       Available              Lower
116 Chuck (ch)                  Decreasing       Available              Lower
116b Chuck Tender (ch)          Increasing       Available             Higher
120 Brisket (ch)                Increasing       Available             Higher
120a Brisket (ch)               Increasing    Steady-Available         Higher
121c Outside Skirt (ch/sel)     Increasing     Steady-Short             Lower
121d Inside Skirt (ch/sel)      Decreasing       Available             Higher
121e Cap & Wedge                Increasing    Steady-Available         Higher
167a Knckle, Trimmed (ch)       Decreasing       Available             Higher
168 Inside Round (ch)           Increasing        Steady               Higher
169 Top Round (ch)              Decreasing    Steady-Available         Higher
171b Outside Round (ch)         Decreasing       Available             Higher
174 Short Loin (ch 0x1)         Increasing    Steady-Available          Lower
174 Short Loin (pr 2x3)         Decreasing       Available             Higher
180 0x1 Strip (ch)              Increasing     Steady-Short             Lower
180 0x1 Strip (pr)              Decreasing       Available              Lower
184 Top Butt, boneless (ch)     Increasing    Steady-Available         Higher
184 Top Butt, boneless (pr)     Decreasing        Steady               Higher
184-3 Top Butt, bnls (ch)       Increasing    Steady-Available         Higher
185a Sirloin Flap (ch)          Increasing        Steady               Higher
185c Loin, Tri-Tip (ch)         Decreasing        Steady               Higher
189a Tender (sel, 5 lb & up)    Decreasing       Available             Higher
189a Tender (ch, 5 lb &up)      Increasing        Steady               Higher
189a Tender (pr, heavy)         Decreasing       Available             Higher
193 Flank Steak (ch)            Decreasing       Available             Higher
50% Trimmings                   Increasing        Steady               Higher
65% Trimmings                   Increasing       Available             Higher
75% Trimmings                   Decreasing       Available              Lower
85% Trimmings                   Decreasing        Steady               Higher
90% Trimmings                   Increasing         Short               Higher
90% Imported Beef (frz)         Decreasing     Steady-Short            Higher
95% Imported Beef (frz)         Decreasing         Short               Higher
Live Cattle (Steer)             Decreasing        Steady               Higher
Feeder Cattle Index (CME)       Decreasing        Steady               Higher

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Market trends For week ending March 25, 2022 - Performance Foodservice
market trends
WEek ending march 25, 2022

Grains
The grain markets had another rollercoaster of a week. Ceasefire talks between Russia and Ukraine were held throughout the
week but ultimately broke down and Wednesday’s WASDE report failed to provide enough fuel to the fire for the bulls. Out-
side of wheat, corn and soybean prices garnered some support from the USDA raising the U.S. 21/22 export forecast slightly
among other changes (covered in last Thursday’s CommodityOne). Along with the obvious impact to wheat, fertilizer exports
out of the Black Sea is another caveat that has kind of flown under the radar during this invasion. We’ve talked at length about
the situation in Brazil and the ever-shrinking soybean production outlooks for the country due to drought, but the country’s
reliance on imported fertilizer is another concern. Brazil and the U.S. import a significant amount of their nitrogen, phosphate,
and potash from Russia and Belaurs so fertilizer exports from these two countries could also support corn and soybean prices.
Prices USDA, FOB.
       Description         Market Trend      Supplies        Price vs. Last Year
Soybeans, bushel            Increasing         Short               Higher
Crude Soybean Oil, lb       Increasing         Short               Higher
Soybean Meal, ton           Increasing         Short               Higher
Corn, bushel                Increasing         Short               Higher
Crude Corn Oil, lb            Steady       Steady-Short            Higher
High Fructose Corn Syrup    Increasing         Short               Higher
Distillers Grain, Dry       Increasing         Short               Higher
Crude Palm Oil, lb BMD      Increasing         Short               Higher
HRW Wheat, bushel           Decreasing         Short               Higher
DNS Wheat 14%, bushel       Decreasing     Steady-Short            Higher
Durum Wheat, bushel         Increasing    Steady-Available         Higher
Pinto Beans, lb               Steady          Steady               Higher
Black Beans, lb               Steady      Steady-Available         Higher
Rice, Long Grain, lb        Increasing         Short               Higher

Dairy
Last week, the cheese block and barrel markets finished 6.9% and 5.5% higher (w/w), respectively. In its March WASDE report,
the USDA lowered its 2022 milk production forecast by 0.5% (or 1.2 billion pounds) and is projected to be 0.13% smaller than
2021. Tight cream supplies (due to less milk output) the past several months has boosted the butter market. CME spot butter
prices may have further upside potential to $2.960/lb. Class I Cream (hundredweight), from USDA.

         Description       Market Trend       Supplies       Price vs. Last Year
Cheese Barrels (CME)        Increasing         Short               Higher
Cheese Blocks (CME)         Increasing         Short               Higher
American Cheese             Increasing         Short               Higher
Cheddar Cheese (40 lb)      Increasing         Short               Higher
Mozzarella Cheese           Increasing         Short               Higher
Monterey Jack Cheese        Increasing         Short               Higher
Parmesan Cheese             Increasing         Short               Higher
Butter (CME)                Increasing      Steady-Short           Higher
Nonfat Dry Milk             Decreasing         Short               Higher
Whey, Dry                   Decreasing      Steady-Short           Higher
Class 1 Base                  Steady           Short               Higher
Class II Cream, heavy       Increasing         Short               Higher
Class III Milk (CME)        Increasing         Short               Higher
Class IV Milk (CME)         Increasing         Short               Higher

                                                                                                                                10
market trends
WEek ending march 25, 2022

Pork
Last week, pork production was up 2.3% (w/w) but was 3.8% smaller than last year. Year-to-date pork output is running
down 7.5% (y/y). Last week, nearby CME lean hog futures were higher by 2.3% (w/w) and are up 19.5% in the last three
months. Last week, the weekly average USDA pork cutout was 2.4% lower (w/w) but up 8.0% (y/y). In its March WASDE
report, the USDA lowered its 2022 pork production estimate by 65k pounds and is projected to be down 1.3% from last
year. China purchases of U.S. pork continue to wane after record buys in 2020 when China experienced African swine fever
(ASF) challenges, which have improved. U.S. pork exports to Mexico, however, during January were a record for the month.
A higher seasonal price trend (soon) along with lackluster (y/y) pork production suggests the downside potential for the pork
markets is likely nominal. Prices USDA, FOB per pound.

         Description           Market Trend    Supplies      Price vs. Last Year
Live Hogs                       Decreasing       Short             Higher
Sow                             Increasing       Short             Higher
Belly (bacon)                   Decreasing      Steady             Higher
Sparerib(4.25 lb & down)        Increasing       Short             Higher
Ham (20-23 lb)                  Decreasing       Short              Lower
Ham (23-27 lb)                  Decreasing   Steady-Short           Lower
Loin (bone in)                  Decreasing      Steady             Higher
Babyback Rib (1.75 lb & up)     Increasing   Steady-Short          Higher
Tenderloin (1.25 lb)            Decreasing  Steady-Available       Higher
Boston Butt, untrmd (4-8 lb)    Decreasing   Steady-Short          Higher
Picnic, untrmd                  Decreasing     Available            Lower
SS Picnic, smoker trm box       Decreasing     Available            Lower
42% Trimmings                   Decreasing       Short             Higher
72% Trimmings                   Increasing      Steady              Lower

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market trends
WEek ending march 25, 2022

Poultry
For the week ending March 5, chicken slaughter was 0.65% larger (w/w) and the average bird weight was down 0.2% (y/y). In its
March WASDE report, the USDA raised its 2022 chicken production forecast by 260k pounds and is estimated to be 0.7% more
than 2021. Maybe this year’s biggest story has been the persistent and record price increases for boneless skinless chicken
breasts. Despite rising feed costs for chicken producers, the high chicken breast prices should continue to encourage production
levels. The abnormal price premium of $0.500 of chicken breasts over wings hints that higher breast prices should slow.
However, the quarterly pivot model for chicken breasts suggests upside potential to $3.040/lb. before the end of the month.
FOB per pound except when noted.

        Description           Market Trend      Supplies      Price vs. Last Year
Whole Birds WOG-Nat              Steady          Steady             Higher
Wings (jumbo cut)              Decreasing       Available            Lower
Wing Index (ARA)               Decreasing       Available            Lower
Breast, Bnless Skinless NE     Increasing         Short             Higher
Breast, Bnless Skinless SE     Increasing         Short             Higher
Breast Boneless Index (ARA)    Increasing         Short             Higher
Tenderloin Index (ARA)           Steady           Short             Higher
Legs (whole)                   Increasing     Steady-Short          Higher
Leg Quarter Index (ARA)        Decreasing        Steady              Lower
Thighs, Bone In                Decreasing        Steady             Higher
Thighs, Boneless               Increasing    Steady-Available       Higher

        Description           Market Trend      Supplies      Price vs. Last Year
Whole Turkey (8-16 lb)          Steady        Steady-Short          Higher
Turkey Breast, Bnls/Sknls       Steady           Short              Higher

Eggs

        Description           Market Trend      Supplies      Price vs. Last Year
Large Eggs (dozen)              Steady        Steady-Short          Higher
Medium Eggs (dozen)             Steady           Short              Higher
Liquid Whole Eggs               Steady           Short              Higher
Liquid Egg Whites               Steady           Short               Lower
Liquid Egg Yolks                Steady          Available           Higher
Egg Breaker Stock Central      Decreasing        Short              Higher

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market trends
WEek ending march 25, 2022

Seafood
Next Monday we’ll have updated seafood prices but expect the seafood markets to remain firm with snow crabs being one
of the main focuses. Alaska’s catch limit of 5.6 million pounds announced back in October 2021, an 88% decline from the
previous season, and a possible ban on Russian seafood imports has turned everyone’s attention to Canada. Warmer tem-
peratures in the Bering Sea have reduced the crab population there, so Canada’s North Atlantic and Labrador Sea harvests
will be paramount to the industry. Canada’s Department of Fisheries and Oceans has already indicated the country’s snow
crab quota could increase by as much as 37% to 33,000 MT for the 2022 season, which could hopefully quell the high prices
U.S. consumers are seeing now. So, expect snow crab prices to remain elevated until the industry gets some good news,
hopefully in the form on an increased catch limit out of Canada. Prices FAS monthly imports.

         Description          Market Trend   Supplies    Price vs. Last Year
Shrimp (16/20 frz)              Steady        Short            Higher
Shrimp (61/70 frz)              Steady       Available          Lower
Shrimp Tiger (26/30 frz)        Steady        Short            Higher
Snow Crab, frz                   Steady       Short            Higher
Tilapia Filet, frz               Steady        Short           Higher
Cod Filet, frz                   Steady        Short           Higher
Tuna Yellowfin, frsh             Steady      Available         Lower
Salmon Atlantic Filet, frsh      Steady       Steady           Higher
Pollock Filet, Alaska, frz       Steady        Short           Higher

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market trends
WEek ending march 25, 2022

Paper and Plastic Products

           Description             Market Trend  Supplies           Price vs. Last Year
                                 WOOD PULP (PAPER)
NBSK- Paper napkin                   Steady         Short                 Higher
42 lb. Linerboard-corrugated box     Steady        Steady                 Higher
                           PLASTIC RESINS (PLASTIC, FOAM)
PS-CHH-utensils, cups, to-go cont.       Steady          Short            Higher
PP-HIGP-heavy grade utensils             Steady         Steady            Lower
PE-LLD-can liners, film, bags            Steady        Available          Higher

Retail Price Change from Prior Month

           Description                    Feb-22         Jan-22           Dec-21
Beef and Veal                            Increasing    Increasing        Increasing
Dairy                                    Increasing    Decreasing        Increasing
Pork                                     Increasing    Increasing        Increasing
Chicken                                  Increasing    Increasing        Increasing
Fresh Fish and Seafood                   Decreasing    Decreasing        Increasing
Fresh Fruits and Veg.                    Increasing    Increasing        Increasing

Various Markets
The softs markets finished mostly lower last week (w/w), with Arabica coffee leading the way. However cocoa prices were up
modestly (w/w) as news of a potential global cocoa deficit supported prices. Firm sugar prices are being supported by rising
crude oil prices as strong ethanol margins pull Brazilian sugar out of the food industry (consumption). In Wednesday’s WASDE,
the USDA made several changes to the U.S. sugar balance sheet that ultimately led to a 7% decrease in 21/22 ending stocks
and stocks to use ratio, which could lend futher support to sugar prices. Expect sugar prices to continue upward as long as
crude oil prices keep ethanol margins high and squeeze Brazil’s sugar exports. Price bases noted below.

        Description              Market Trend         Supplies      Price vs. Last Year
Whole Peeled, Stand (6/10)         Steady              Short              Higher
Tomato Paste-Industrial (lb)       Steady              Short              Higher
Coffee lb ICE                        Decreasing       Available           Higher
Sugar lb ICE                         Increasing         Short             Higher
Cocoa mt ICE                           Steady          Steady             Higher
Orange Juice lb ICE                  Increasing         Short             Higher
Honey (clover) lb                      Steady           Short             Higher

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