Mayfair A local market review - CBRE Residential
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
Mayfair A local market review
Mayfair snapshot Location
Home to some of the world’s most Mayfair is one of the most exclusive parts of Art lovers are well served by The Royal
famous brands including London and recognisable the world over, not Academy and food lovers are catered for by
least as the top prize on a Monopoly board. the likes of Nobu and Roka. However, with
Claridges, the Ritz, Cartier and It is located in the affluent borough of the introduction of Crossrail in 2018 it will be
Louis Vuitton, Mayfair is Westminster and borders both Hyde Park easier than ever for tourists to visit the area.
London’s most prestigious district. and Green Park. It is served by four tube
stations: Bond Street, Green Park, Marble These days, much of Mayfair is occupied
In addition, the area benefits from Arch and Oxford Circus, as well as a network by office space, retail, fine dining and chic
a number of exclusive boutiques, of London buses. bars. The limited residential stock that is
niche art galleries and well available tends to benefit from a high level
Home to wealthy bankers, celebrities and of architectural beauty, ranging from
known restaurants such as other high profile individuals, prior residents Georgian townhouses to neoclassical bell
Hakkassan. As a result, Mayfair have included both Jimi Hendrix and George époque apartment buildings. The vast
has always been a strong Frideric Handel who, separated by two majority of new development schemes
favourite with global high net centuries, lived next door to each other. consist of less than ten units.
worth individuals and property The area is already a popular tourist
prices are five times greater than destination, drawn by the high end shopping
the London average. This follows of brands such as Tiffany’s, Hermes and
Burberry, the high teas of the Dorchester
123% growth over the last five and the Ritz, and iconic department stores
years – a strength that looks set to such as Fortnum and Mason, Selfridges
grow even further with the and Fenwicks.
coming of Crossrail to Bond Street
tube station in 2018.
Oxford Circus
Bond Street
Selfridges
Marble Arch
Roka
Fenwicks
Claridges Burberry
Miu Miu
Cartier
US Embassy Louis Vuitton
Chanel
Hakkassan
Tiffany’s The Royal
Academy of Art
Dover Street
Nobu Market
The Dorchester Fortnum & Mason
Green Park
The Ritz
Retailers
Restaurants
Hotels
Buckingham Palace
CulturalLocal demographics and Tenure profile
demand for housing
Residents of Westminster are among the Looking more specifically at Mayfair, there 100%
most elite of London, with average salaries are currently only 4,694 people resident in
over double the national average. the area – this makes up only 2% of the 90%
wider borough’s population.
80% 41%
The population of Westminster is currently 50%
estimated at 239,294, having increased by Price growth in Mayfair reflects the limited
Proportion of households
70%
32% from 181,286 in 2001. This is expected construction on the area. Since 2009 only
to reach 258,774 in 2021, a further increase 16 schemes with 147 units have been 60%
of 8%. As a result of this population growth, completed. There are currently only 11
50%
the number of households in Westminster schemes under construction. 27%
increased by 21% between 2001 and 2011 22%
40%
to 110,000, and this is expected to increase Privately rented stock makes up the majority
by a further 20% by 2021, bringing the total of units in Mayfair, with 50% of properties 30%
number to 132,000. This represents growth falling into this category, while 28% of
of approximately 2,200 households per year. properties are owner occupied and the 20%
32%
remaining 22% are socially rented. 28%
10%
However, despite this marked demand, Comparatively, across Westminster as a
since 2009 only 3,259 new homes have whole 41% of properties are privately
been built across the borough resulting rented, 32% are owner occupied and the Mayfair Westminster
in a significant shortfall of housing. remainder, 27%, are socially rented.
As a result, and typical of London overall, Private rented
demand for homes is hugely outweighing Social rented
supply and this is fuelling price inflation. Owner occupied
This strong demand is reflected in the fact
that, across Westminster, 63% of units
currently being built have already been
sold off plan.Housing market trends
In the post-recession recovery period House price growth across Westminster has Looking more specifically at Mayfair,
London’s housing market has performed been extremely strong over the past few average property prices are currently
strongly, outperforming the wider UK market years, rebounding almost immediately £3,062,208 – triple the average property
by a significant margin. Prices across the following the Global Financial Crisis and price in Westminster and five times that
city are now 45% above their previous peak. consistently outperforming wider London. In of London overall. Comparatively,
Some of the strongest growth occurred in fact, since its deepest trough in 2009, prices those in affluent Belgravia are similar at
prime central London, where prices are in Westminster have increased 93% while £2,978,820 while the average in prime
now 65% above peak. During 2015 activity those of London have increased 74%. central London is £1,631,551.
slowed and growth started to cool. However,
this is something we anticipated and we In terms of growth, prices in Mayfair have
welcome an orderly slowdown. Fears of a Price growth in Mayfair since 2010 increased by 123% since 2010. This is
123%
London house price bubble have subsided almost double the rated growth in prime
and the market is maintaining sustainable central London. Other super prime areas
and robust growth, with 12% inflation over such as Belgravia, Knightsbridge and South
the last year. Moreover, activity in the new Kensington have grown by over 90%.
build market remains extremely strong and Property values across London as a whole
demand is high, with 67% of the 51,448 new This brings average property prices in grew by 33% over the same time period.
build homes under construction already Westminster to £1,015,416 and those in
sold. This is the highest absorption rate of London to £506,723 equating to Westminster
new build stock in recent years. wielding a premium of 100% over the
capital as a whole.
Price comparison London’s new build market
70,000 80%
£3,500,000
70%
60,000
£3,000,000
60%
Private units under construction
£2,500,000 50,000
Average apartment price
50%
£2,000,000 40,000
40%
£1,500,000 30,000 30%
£1,000,000 20%
20,000
£500,000 10%
10,000
0 0
2001–2006
average
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Mayfair
Belgravia
Chelsea
Knightsbridge
Westminster
Kensington
Sold Unsold Proportion Sold (RHS)Housing market prospects
London is one of a handful of global cities Price growth in Mayfair reflects the limited With the introduction of Crossrail in 2018,
that attract the most affluent international construction in the area – since 2009 only we expect the prices of properties
buyers, with Mayfair one of the most sought 16 schemes with 147 units have been surrounding Bond Street tube station to
after locations. As a result, London’s completed. There are currently only 11 increase by 1.9% per annum above and
super-prime prices are among the highest in schemes under construction. Going forward beyond general house price growth.
the world, up there with Hong Kong and New the supply position will worsen. Indeed, we have already witnessed marked
York. The prime market steadied somewhat increases in those properties surrounding
last year reflecting the uncertainty of the Much of the development in Westminster Bond Street tube station, with such
election, but we expect modest growth to in recent years has been in the form of properties increasing in value by 178% since
return this year. We expect Mayfair to office to residential conversions. All of the the announcement of Crossrail in 2008.
outperform because of its particular supply 14 schemes in Mayfair completed since
and demand dynamics. 2011 have been office conversions.
However, Westminster Council have become
concerned about the impact from the loss
of office space, and as a result have
clamped down on conversions. This will
seriously restrict future housing supply in the
area and push up prices.
House Price Growth forecast
2016 2017 2018 2019
UK 3% 3% 4% 5%
London 5% 3% 5% 6%
Average house price index
250
200
Average house price index (Base = Jan 2007)
150
100
50
0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Westminster London BaseContacts Jennet Siebrits Mark Collins
Head of Residential Research Chairman of Residential
+44 20 7182 2066 +44 20 7182 2264
jennet.siebrits@cbre.com mark.collins2@cbre.com
Jamie Gunning Shaun Macnamara
Senior Director Residential Development Head of West End Sales
Sales & Consultancy +44 20 7420 3087
+44 20 7182 2005 shaun.macnamara@cbre.com
jamie.gunning@cbre.com
Sources CBRE, Land Registry, Molior, Rightmove
Disclaimer 2015 CBRE CBRE Limited confirms that information contained herein, including projections, has been obtained from
sources believed to be reliable. While we do not doubt their accuracy, we have not verified them and make
no guarantee, warranty or representation about them. It is your responsibility to confirm independently their
accuracy and completeness. This information is presented exclusively for use by CBRE clients and
professionals and all rights to the material are reserved and cannot be reproduced without prior written
permission of CBRE. Images provided are computer generated. © 2015 CBRE Ltd.You can also read
