MEMS & Sensors Market: Current Challenges & Future Opportunities - InvenSense

From Technologies to Market

MEMS & Sensors
Market: Current
Challenges & Future
 Opportunities
 Guillaume Girardin
 Yole Développement

 © 2016

CONTENT

 • Smart camera • Smartphone
 • Personal robot • Wearable
 • Vacuum cleaner • AR/VR
 • Fridge/Washing
 machine
 • Toys

Consumer
 and
 Smart Home Human
Industrial
applications Industry 4.0 Automotive

 • Smart Factory
 • Smart Grid • Autonomous
 • Smart Building vehicle
 • Mixed Reality (MR) • ADAS
 • Drones and
 Robots

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MOBILE

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SMARTPHONES MARKET EVOLUTION

 Realistic
 scenario

 1.4%
CAGR 2015-2021

 China’s still driving the volume but will the next growth come from India? 2020?
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EVOLUTION OF THE # OF SENSORS EMBEDDED IN A SMARTPHONE

 2007 2014 2021
 IR sensor IR sensor IR sensor
 RGB RGB RGB
 Laser ranger Laser ranger Laser ranger
 Gas sensor Gas sensor Gas sensor
 HRM HRM HRM
 Fingerprint Fingerprint Fingerprint
Magnetometer Magnetometer Magnetometer
 Gyroscope Gyroscope Gyroscope
Accelerometer Accelerometer Accelerometer
 Proximity Proximity Proximity
 ALS ALS ALS
 CIS CIS (1x3D) CIS
 Microphone Microphone Microphone
 0 1 2 3 4 5 0 1 2 3 4 5 0 1 2 3 4 5

 5 sensors 12 sensors 19 sensors ?

 iPhone Edge Samsung S5/iPhone 6 - 2014 Galaxy S12/iPhone 9/9+ - 2021 ? 5
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MEMS AND SENSORS IN MOBILE DEVICES
 Capacitive MEMS
 Microphone
 Piezoelectric MEMS
 Loudspeakers
 Piezoelectric MEMS Sound
 Microphone

 CIS (Front, Rear, Multi, 3D)
 ALS, proximity, RGB
 Spectral sensing (IR, multispectral)
 Optical Interface Laser ranger
 Laser ranger
 3D Touch
 Autofocus (VCM, liquid
 Security, lens, MEMS, piezo)

sound and
3D Imaging,
the next value
 propositions
 of Face/Eye/Iris
 Particle, gas sensor
 smartphones recognition
 Environmental Security
 … Temp. / Humidity sensor
 Fingerprint
 sensor

 Pressure sensor

 Accelerometer
 Antenna tuner, filters, …
 Communi-
 Gyroscope Motion
 Magnetometer
 cation MEMS oscillator
 Combos (IMU, eCompass, 9DOF)
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MEMS VALUE PROPOSITION IN MOBILE DEVICES
 • High SNR
 • Noise cancellation
 • Voice recognition/activation
 • Waterproofing
 • Beamforming
 • Better communication (Skype,
 FaceTime) • Haptic feedback
 • Immersion (AR/VR, Selfie trends • Gesture recognition
 keep going (Face swap) • Add dimensions to the interface
 • 3D photo/Video Improved • 3D changing interface
 photography/video (microfluidic)

 And 3D
 imaging is
supposed to
be the next • Healthier life (sport, • High resolution imaging
 big thing… walking orientation)
 • Danger and damage
 • Liveness detection
 • All environment
 preventing detection (dry, wet, dirt)
 • Weather forecast/probe • Anti-spoofing
 • Mobile payment

 • Multiple bandwidth handling
 • Accurate indoor
 (Worldphone)
 positioning
 • Low power consumption
 • Accurate motion
 • Low loss
 tracking
 • Accurate timing
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INCREASING FUNCTIONALITIES FOR MOBILE PHONES
 With gas
 sensor Gas detec
 Market introduction
 With 3D Gaming + 3D Avatar
 camera Market acceptance
 Enhanced communication

 Context awareness
 With
 sensor Indoor navigation
 fusion
 Activity monitoring
 Smart Home
 With
 fingerprint
 Mobile payment
 Security + authentication
 Proliferation With Always-on Virtual Personal Assistance
 of functions microphone
 Virtual Personal Assistance
using different
 sensors With
 High resolution camera stabilization
 gyroscopes Menu navigation & advanced user interface
 3D gaming
 With Location-based service
 compass +
 pressure Map navigation & GPS assistance
 Pedometer
 With
 accelerome Gaming
 ters
 Portrait/Landscape switching, Tap/double tap and shake control

 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
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REAR CAMERA - PHOTOGRAPHY
 Ongoing improvements of photography

 - New features - High power processing
 - High Cost
 - Performance
 Dual cameras - Large XY Size
 - No OIS integration

 pros and cons

Better, faster, Rear cameras
 stronger… phone
 True Tone flash

 Rear camera module

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FRONT CAMERA – SELFIES & VIDEO CALLING
 Changing use cases of the front camera

 Why now ? •
 •
 Technology maturity
 Multisource availability
 • Easy to integrate (no OIS)
 • Lower cost than rear dual cameras
 • “Wow effect”
 • Recent acquisitions

Innovation on
the front side 3 in 1
 would make Front camera ALS/Proximity/Color
 more sense (Res. 5–8Mp) 3D Camera - Stereo or ToF
 (Res. VGA, IR LED illumination)
 Front camera module

 Courtesy of Faceshift

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BIOMETRICS MARKET TREND IN MOBILE
 Recent security cases may have shorten the entry in the security technology
 Market Penetration

 Security technology
 90%
 Mobile Payment
 Online Identity
 70%
 Biometric Personal
 From Fingerprint biometrics Identification Device (BPID)
convenience is a convenience feature
 to security 50%
 feature… Convenience/feature +
 +
 30%
 Unlocking
 Fingerprint Iris Facial
 sensing recognition recognition

 Account 950XL
 Could biometrics become a
 20% critical security technology ?
 Yes, it could, with multi-modal
 ? authentication

 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
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FINGERPRINT - TRANSITION FROM CAPACITIVE TO PMUT TECHNOLOGY
 Transition from capacitive to pMUT Fingerprint sensors for mobile and tablets - 2013-2021 market (Munits)
 1,000 $3,000

 Yole Developpement @ April 2016
 900

 $2,500
 800

 700

 pMUT Fingerprint Market value ($M)
 $2,000

 Market volume (Munits)
 600

The shift from
 capacitive to 500 $1,500

 ultrasonic 400
 fingerprint
 could be 300
 $1,000

 faster than
 expected 200
 $500

 100

 0 $-
 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
 Capacitive fingerprint 130 301 440 572 684 808 850 877 878
 Ultrasonic fingerprint 0 0 0 3 44 90 213 376 585
 pMUT Fingerprint Market value ($M) $- $- $- $17 $240 $449 $1,020 $1,691 $2,517

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TOTAL SENSOR MARKET FOR CELLPHONES AND TABLETS (MUNITS)
 2013 - 2021 Cellphones and tablets sensors volume forecast (in Munits) by sensor type
 Sensors

 8.3%
 CAGR2016-2021
 Yole Developpement @ April 2016
 (Units)
 20,000

 Total (Munits)

 Other emerging MEMS

 CIS sensors

The growth of
 Optical HRM

 Eye/Iris scanner
 3D camera

 72%
 Fingerprint

sensors in the 3D Camera

 Laser Ranger

 cellphones
 Market volume (Munits)
 RGB

 Proximity

 and tablets ALS

 Gas/Particle sensors CAGR2016-2021
 market will Humidity + Temperature

 Pressure sensors (Units)
 reach a 8.3% Silicon Microphones

 9-axis Combos

CAGR2016/2021
 6-axis E-compass

 6-axis IMUs

 in units Fingerprint
 Magnetometers

 OIS gyroscopes

 Gyroscopes

 21%
 Accelerometers

 CAGR2016-2021
 (Units)
 0
 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 CAGR2015-2021

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VR / AR / MR

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 Composite image by Re/code; Original: Japanexperterna.se

CONSUMER MARKET TREND
 The next steps of Imaging ?
 Processing x Complexity
 Interactive
 World
 Augmented/
 - Virtual Mix Reality
 Reality 3D
 - Enhanced videocall 3D/Sphere
 - Morphing Video
 3D

 3D Video
 - Video/Movies
Pandora’s box - Videochat 3D
 is open 3D

 2D Video
 virtual world
 Photosphere
 3D with interaction
 Photo - Object Mapping
 -Smart environment
 interaction
 2D - 3D/Depth
 Photosphere
 Photo
 - Picture - Photosphere
 2D
 - Selfie 3D 4D Evolution
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FROM SMARTPHONES TO ”SUPERPHONES”: REQUIREMENTS
 Virtual Reality Augmented Reality
 Usage: Indoor (Outdoor for FPV) Usage: Indoor or Outdoor
 General specifications Weight: Range of 500gr Weight: < 400g
 Wired/Wireless Wireless
 • See-through glasses
 • High resolution (>600ppi) • High resolution (>600ppi)
 Display (Techno: OLED, LCD, MicroDisplay) (Techno: DLP, LCOS, MicroDisplay)
 • Large field of view • High luminosity (Outdoor usage)
Requirements (Human eye: 70° to 120°) • Large field of view
 are much (Human eye: 70° to 120°)
 higher than Tracking • Motion sensing (MEMS) (6/9-axis)
 current • MEMS (6/9-axis)
 • Light house
 smartphone
 ones Environment • 3D Depth camera
 scanning No • Stereo vision?
 • LIDAR?
 • Touch sensing area
 • Touch sensing area
 Control • Accessories
 • 3D hand gesture recognition
 (Light house or MEMS motion sensing)
 • Ultra low power
 Performances • Min. 60fps (120fps recommended) • High needs of computation
 • Min. 60fps (120fps recommended)
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VR / AR / MR MARKET ANALYSIS
 Source : Bernard Kress - Stanford
 Smart Eyeware Gaming B2B Industrial Military

 AR is a
fragmented
 market

 Huge R&D effort to merge
 applications into a single
 consumer product

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CONSUMER MARKET TREND
 Virtual Reality & Augmented Reality headset market forecast

 2010-2021 Virtual Reality headset market (in Munits)
 3.0

 2.5

 ?
 VR is still in 2.0
 Volume shipment (M units)
 early stage:
 Not mature
 1.5
and expensive

 1.0

 0.5

 0.0
 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016e 2017e 2018e 2019e 2020e 2021e

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AUGMENTED REALITY DISRUPTION
 From AR to MR

 Object

3D Depth
 sensing

 2D

 f(x;y)=Intensity f(x;y)=(Intensity, Distance)

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NEAR TO EYE DISPLAY TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS
 « Bird bath » Freespace Lightguide

 Various Technology is also fragmented
 display Waveguide Holographic or Diffractive
technologies

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AUGMENTED REALITY DISPLAY
 Technology

 Technology
segmentation

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AUGMENTED AND MIXED REALITY, THE NEXT BIG THING?

 2010-2025 VR/AR market (in Munits)
 Multi-100Munits
 AR VR market by 2030 ?
 25

 2.00

 20

 AR Disruption
 Volume shipment (Munits)

 15

 22.00
 10

 1.50

 5
 VR Peak 8.00
 1.00

 2.50 1.00 3.00
 2.00 1.00
 1.00 1.00
 0.29 0.60 0.15 0.50
 0 0.00
 0.01 0.00
 0.01 0.00
 0.01 0.00
 0.01 0.00
 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.06 0.08
 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016e 2017e 2018e 2019e 2020e 2021e 2022e 2023e 2024e 2025e
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AUTOMOTIVE

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HOW SIGNIFICANT IS THE AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY?
 2014 industry revenue comparison

 The car is the next consumer
 electronics device!
 Consumer
 Electronics Automotive
 Industry Industry $2.2T
 CAGR +2.7%
 88M units
 Two industries ASP $28,000
 controlled by $1.140T
giant companies CAGR +4.4%
with ~$200B in
 3,046M units
 revenue
 ASP $374

 Automotive $142B
 Electronics CAGR +7%
 88M units
 ASP $1,614

 $200B
 ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈

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AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES: THE DISRUPTION CASE
 Two distinctive paths for autonomous vehicles

 Technology x Market Penetration
 Disruption?

 The Automobile’s
 Evolution

 The electric car
 2020 - 2022 Industrialization matures
 should see the phase
 first
implementations Low-expectation
 “cars” fulfilling a new
 plane of consumption
 needs

 Electronics New use case Yole Développement
 invade cars © September 2015

 1900 80 years 1980 32 years 2012 10 years 2022 6 years 2028 12 years 2040

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THE DEATH OF DRIVING

 Level 5
 5%

 By 2050, 5%
 of all vehicles
sold should be
 level 5-ready!

 By 2045, more than 70% of all vehicles sold will integrate autonomous capabilities
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FROM APPLICATIONS TO DEVICES

 RADAR, SOUND
 AND MOTION

 Microphone
 Beam-forming

 OIS,
 microphone
 and dead
 reckoning
sensors could
 drive the
 demand

 Courtesy of InvenSense @2016 | www.yole.fr | InvenSense Developer Conference 27

INDUSTRIAL CHAIN FOR AUTOMOTIVE

 Value
 FUTURE
 Service
 Provider

 Car
 manufacturer
 A
consolidated Tier 0.5
 automotive (Software Provider)
 industrial
 chain Tier 1
 (System Manufacturer)
 Tier 2
 (Parts Manufacturer)
 Tier 3
 (Material Manufacturer)

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SMART BUILDING

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SMART BUILDING

 “40% of total energy consumption is for building.” Source: IBM

 Sensors for:
 - CO2
 - Temperature
 Comfort - Pressure
 - Humidity
 - Particles

 3
 - Comfort
 - Energy segments
 - Security
with advanced Smart
 functions Building
 Sensors for: Sensors for:
 - Smart lighting Energy Security - Recognition (Biometrics)
 - Flow - People counting
 - Temperature - Presence
 - Fire

 Smart buildings require a shift in sensing from basic light switch on/off to more advanced functions
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SMART BUILDING FORECAST

 Huge value
 (Services,
 Maintenance,
 data)

 Volume (Munits)
Lower volume
 but huge Low value
 added value
 (services,
 maintenance,
 etc.)

 Market will grow at 26% CAGR over 2015-2020 to reach more than 9Munits in 2020 for Smart
 sensors.
 Market will grow at 10% CAGR over 2015-2020 to reach 336Munits in 2020 for “low end” sensors.
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GLOBAL
CHALLENGES

NEW MEMS CHALLENGES
 Power consumption is becoming a major trend

 Start with more intelligence!
 Sensor fusion,
 Size decrease software & more
 Less silicon, more brain. features

 MEMS
 markets
challenges are Power
 evolving Consumer ASP decrease consumption Importance
 volume decrease for user case

 Mobiles have to survive for long
 periods on battery power while Start with applications, and work
 interacting with environment (voice downwards to the chips needed to
 calls, Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, GPS, sensors support them.
 …).

 Yesterday 2016, a new virtuous cycle?

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SENSOR HUB vs MCU/AP
 A fight to acquire value

 Value AP
 …
 System MCU

 $30 - 40 A great
 competition to
Value is in the Sensor
 gather value at a
software, not Hub
 higher level in the
 in the
 hardware system, because
 value is in the
 software, not in
 $1 -$2 the hardware.
 Sensor 1
 Sensor 2
 Sensor #
 …
 Sensor

CHALLENGES AT ALL LEVELS

 Turnkey solution

 Sensor
No “one-fit-
all” solution
A solution for Performances Use case
 each
 application
could be the
 greatest Low power Software
 challenge

 Smarter Value & Services

 Lower cost
 @2016 | www.yole.fr | InvenSense Developer Conference 35

CONCLUSION

WHAT COULD BE THE NEXT BIG THING FOR THE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY?

 SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY REVENUE (in bn US$)
 AR/VR ?
 450

 IoT
 400
 /SmartCity/B
 uilding?
 350
 We are still
 strongly 300
 Wearables ?
relying on the
 smartphone 250
 wave… Autonomous
 vehicles?
 200
Where is the

 ?
next growth 150
 relay?
 100

 50

 0

 Source: WSTS, Cisco, Gartner, Yole

 @2016 | www.yole.fr | InvenSense Developer Conference 37

EXTRACTED FROM 2016 YOLE’S REPORTS, AND UPCOMING 2017 REPORTS

Coming in 2017 à
Stay tuned on
www.i-micronews.com
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THANK YOU

 Q&A?
 girardin@yole.fr

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FIELDS OF EXPERTISE
 Yole Développement’s 30 analysts operate in the following areas

 Imaging Photonics

 MEMS &
 Sensors MedTech

 Compound
 Semi.
 Manufacturing
 LED

 Power Advanced Packaging
 Electronics Batteries / Energy
 Management @2016 | www.yole.fr | InvenSense Developer Conference 40

4 BUSINESS MODELS

 o Consulting and Analysis o Financial services
 Market data & research, marketing analysis M&A (buying and selling)
 Technology analysis Due diligence
 Strategy consulting Fundraising
 Reverse engineering & costing Maturation of companies
 Patent analysis IP portfolio management & optimization
 www.yole.fr www.yolefinance.com
 www.bmorpho.com
 Yole
Développement o Media
 o Reports
 Market & Technology reports i-Micronews.com website
 Patent Investigation and patent infringement risk @Micronews e-newsletter
 analysis Communication & webcast services
 Teardowns & Reverse Costing Analysis Events
 Cost Simulation Tool www.i-Micronews.com
 www.i-Micronews.com/reports

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A GROUP OF COMPANIES

 M&A operations
 Due diligences
 www.yolefinance.com

 Innovation and business maker
 www.bmorpho.com
 Market,
 technology and
Yole Group Manufacturing cost analysis
 strategy
 Teardown and reverse engineering
 consulting
 Cost simulation tools
 www.systemplus.fr
 www.yole.fr

 IP analysis
 Patent assessment
 www.knowmade.fr

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OUR GLOBAL ACTIVITY

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RESEARCH PRODUCTS - CONTENT COMPARISON

 Breadth of the analysis

 Standard Reports

 Workshops

 Depth of the analysis
 Deep and
large analysis

 Custom
 Analysis

 Custom analysis scope is defined with
 you to meet your information and
 budget needs

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SERVING THE ENTIRE SUPPLY CHAIN

 Integrators and
 end-users

 Our analysts Device makers
 provide
 market
 analysis,
 technology
 evaluation, Suppliers: material, equipment,
 and business
plan along the OSAT, foundries…
entire supply
 chain

 Financial investors,
 R&D centers

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SERVING MULTIPLE INDUSTRIAL FIELDS

 Industrial and Medical systems
 defense
 We are
working across
 multiple
 industries to
understand the Energy
 impact of Automotive
 More-than-
 Moore
 technologies
from device to
 system Mobile phone and
 Transportation consumer
 makers electronics
 From A to Z…

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