MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS-UK Regional Election Outlook
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MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS-UK Regional
Election Outlook
by Tom Lake
Voters in three of the United Kingdom’s four constituent nations go to the polling stations
today, Thursday 6 May, with Scotland and Wales holding elections to their devolved national
parliaments. Meanwhile, across England, elections for metropolitan mayors, police and
crime commissioners, and local councils take place. The vote is being dubbed ‘super
Thursday’ as a huge number of council seats are up for grabs, with those up for election in
2021 being joined by those elections (such as for the London mayoralty) that were originally
scheduled for May 2020 but delayed due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
In this article we examine some of the more important contests taking place in the context of
UK politics, both with regards to the fortunes of national political leaders as well as the unity
of the UK as a whole. At the end of the article we provide a run-down of expected
declaration times for the major contests.
Scotland – Sturgeon Seeks SNP Majority To Bolster IndyRef2 Calls
The most closely watched election for markets will be in Scotland, with the governing
separatist Scottish National Party (SNP) seeking an overall majority in the national
parliament. The electoral system for the Scottish parliament is one that is intended to avoid
single parties winning an overall majority so being able to do so would be a significant signal
of intent. First Minister and SNP head Nicola Sturgeon has stated that an SNP majority
would be a clear sign to Westminster that the Scottish electorate wants another
independence referendum, following the ‘No’ to independence vote in the previous 2014
referendum.
Chart 1. Hypothetical Scottish Parliament Based On May 2021 Opinion Polling, Seats
Source: Survation, Savanta ComRes, YouGov, Opinium, ElectionPolling.co.uk, MNI
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Business Address – MNI Market News, 5th Floor, 69 Leadenhall Street, London, EC3A 2 BGOpinion polling is on a knife-edge with regards to whether the SNP will win a majority or not,
with an average of the polls carried out in May so far translating into 63 seats for the SNP,
the same total they are on now, which is just two short of a majority. The expectation of a
strong showing for the Scottish Greens (who also support Scottish independence) means
that the SNP can at least be assured of remaining in power at Holyrood at the head of a pro-
independence coalition.
The Scottish parliament election runs as an additional-members system, where 73 MSPs are
selected in single-member constituencies via first-past-the-post. The remaining 56 MSPs are
selected via proportional representation in 8 regional constituencies. The SNP is likely to
take almost all of the single-member constituencies, with the Conservatives, Labour,
Greens, and Liberal Democrats relying on seats on the regional lists to top up their totals.
There has been much media focus on the prospects for the Alba Party of former SNP leader
and first minister Alex Salmond, who has been engaged in a bitter legal battle with
Sturgeon’s government. Based on recent polling it seems unlikely that the party will secure
any list seats and will not gain enough support to derail the SNP significantly.
Should the polls be underestimating SNP support, and the party emerges with a majority,
there will be renewed pressure on UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson to offer a second
independence referendum. In a campaign debate on 4 May, Sturgeon ruled out a ‘wildcat’
referendum not sanctioned by the UK government. In the short term we do not believe it
likely that Sturgeon will seek to press hard for another independence referendum, with
opinion polls showing declining support for a separate Scotland in early 2021. The SNP
would want to be assured of a successful campaign before embarking on another
referendum effort. Nevertheless, with an SNP majority, the call for another vote would be
inevitable at some point in the next two or three years. This could lead to a bitter political
period, with the Conservative government not wanting to risk Scotland leaving the Union but
running the risk of denying a vote pushing support for independence even higher.
England – Conservatives Seek Labour-Denting ‘Hat Trick’ In Hartlepool, Tees Valley,
West Midlands
The three most closely-watched contests in England today will not be the elections in the
nation’s largest city, London – where incumbent Labour mayor Sadiq Khan is all-but-
assured a second term – but in three areas of the Midlands and northern England historically
viewed as the heartlands for the centre-left Labour Party but where Johnson’s Conservatives
are making deep inroads.
The town of Hartlepool in northeast England holds a by-election for the House of Commons,
and the contest is being viewed as a key battle for both major parties. The seat has been
held by Labour since its creation in the 1970s, and was from 1992-2004 represented by
Peter Mandleson, a key ally of former PM Tony Blair and architect of the centrist ‘New
Labour’ ideology of the 1990s. However, the heavily Brexit-supporting town could shift into
the Conservative camp if an opinion poll carried out shortly before the election is accurate.
The poll from Survation showed support for the Conservative candidate at 50%, well ahead
of Labour on 33%. Both parties have campaigned heavily in the constituency with PM Boris
Johnson and Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer both visiting the area on multiple occasions.
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Business Address – MNI Market News, 5th Floor, 69 Leadenhall Street, London, EC3A 2 BGThe other two English contests in focus are mayoral elections taking place in the Tees Valley
in northeast England and in the West Midlands around the city of Birmingham. Both areas
are currently held by the Conservatives, who won the elections as part of a strong
Conservative showing in May 2017 under then-Prime Minister Theresa May. As with
Hartlepool, both areas have historically leant towards Labour but the Conservatives have
sought to plough investment into both regions in recent years in an effort to maintain control.
Polls have shown the Conservatives maintaining a lead in both areas, but as with Hartlepool
a single poll can often be misleading as to final voting intentions.
• Should the Conservatives win all three of the contests above it will be seen as a
major vindication of PM Johnson’s governing style and his government’s efforts to
‘level up’ previously deprived areas of England. It would also place major pressure on
Starmer, who is coming under increasing attack from the left of his party for failing to
make inroads back into the ‘red wall’ of former Labour seats won by the
Conservatives in the 2019 general election.
• A result where one party wins two of the contests and the other party one would
benefit neither leader significantly, with both likely claiming a victory but critics for
both men still circling.
• If Labour hold Hartlepool and win both the Tees Valley and West Midlands it would
ease pressure on Starmer from the left, while also piling it onto Johnson amidst an
ongoing scandal involving the redecoration of his Downing Street flat which has
widened into broader accusations of ‘Tory sleaze’ by the Labour leader.
Wales – Labour To Remain Largest Party, But Likely To Need Plaid Support
In elections to the Welsh Parliament (the Senedd), the governing Labour party looks set to
retain a plurality of seats but is likely to require the support of the Welsh separatist Plaid
Cymru party in order to govern. Since the last election in 2016, Labour has relied on the
support of the one Liberal Democrat member in the Welsh Parliament to govern with a
majority. However, polls indicate that a slump in support for Labour combined with the
Conservatives vacuuming up most former UKIP votes is set to result in Labour falling short
of a majority even with the support of the single Liberal Democrat member (polls indicate the
party holding its seat but gaining no more).
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Business Address – MNI Market News, 5th Floor, 69 Leadenhall Street, London, EC3A 2 BGChart 2. Seats in Welsh Parliament, at Dissolution and Based on Latest Polling
35
30 29
27
25
20
17
15 14
10 10
10
7
5
2
1 1 1
0
Seats at Dissolution Forecast Based On Polls
Labour Conservative Plaid Cymru Liberal Democrat AWA Other
Source: YouGov, Savanta ComRes, MNI. N.b. 31 seats required for a majority.
With the only other parties represented likely to be the Conservatives and the anti-devolution
Abolish the Welsh Assembly (AWA) party – formed largely from a rump of former UKIP
members – the only choice for Labour to hold onto power will be to form an agreement with
Plaid Cymru. This is the first election in which 16-18-year olds will be allowed to vote for the
Welsh Parliament, while support for Welsh independence – standing at just under 30% - is
the highest it has eve been. Both of these factors are likely to boost Plaid support (16-18-
year-olds are the most likely age bracket to support Welsh independence) and embolden its
demands when it comes to extracting concessions from First Minister Mark Drakeford’s
Labour government. These are unlikely to be as potentially destabilising as an independence
referendum but would likely seek to secure the further devolution of powers over Wales
away from Westminster and towards Cardiff.
Key Timings:
It should be noted that the timings are broad estimates and due to the COVID-19 pandemic
counts could take longer than would usually be the case with fewer counters in place at
counting centres.
Thursday 6 May: 2200BST – Polls close across England, Scotland and Wales. No exit polls
will be published.
Friday 7 May: 0200BST – First English council election results begin to come in. Early
declarations expected in Labour strongholds in north east and north west England.
Friday 7 May: 0500BST – Declaration in the Hartlepool by-election expected around this
time. Doncaster mayoral election result could come as well, with Labour likely to hold on to
power. Tight council races in Dudley, Stockport, and Nuneaton and Bedworth also expected.
Friday 7 May: 0900BST – Counting starts for Scottish and Welsh Parliaments, half of the
London Assembly, and 79 English councils.
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Business Address – MNI Market News, 5th Floor, 69 Leadenhall Street, London, EC3A 2 BGFriday 7 May: 1200BST – More council results due to come in in greater numbers, including
Manchester, Burnley, and Bolton. The first Scottish parliament election results due to be
declared, including First Minister Nicolas Sturgeon’s Glasgow Southside seat.
Friday 7 May: 1500BST – First results from the Welsh Parliament due to be declares, with
the marginal Llanelli and Wrexham up early. Initial seven results from London Assembly
elections and a much larger wave of English council elections due to be declared, including
the closely watched races in Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire, and Trafford.
Friday 7 May: 1700BST – Tees Valley mayoral contest due to be declared in a major test of
the Conservatives’ ability to hold onto areas of north east England. Marginals Caerphilly and
Vale of Clwyd in Wales will post their results as will a substantial number of English councils
– including counties such as Norfolk, Essex, and Cambridgeshire where all council seats are
up for election – with around 40 declarations expected in 90 mins.
Friday 7 May: 1900BST – Final results from the Welsh parliament due to come in, showing
what form of coalition will be required if Labour are to hold onto power there. 46 out of
Scotland’s 129 seats should have declared, giving an indication as to the strength of the
SNP’s results. No counting expected overnight.
Saturday 8 May: 1200BST – First of the 35 English councils counting on Saturday due to
come through, including closely contested Lancashire. Liverpool city, North Tyneside and
West of England mayoral contests due to come through, as should two more Scottish
parliament seats in the form of Conservative Aberdeenshire West and SNP Perthshire
South.
Saturday 8 May: 1500BST – One of the major contests of the election due to declare in the
form of the West Midlands mayoralty, with Conservative incumbent Andy Street facing
Labour challenger Liam Byrne. The remaining portion of London Assembly seats due to
declare, as will around 20 English councils including Hartlepool, Kirklees, Gosport,
Portsmouth and Milton Keynes.
Saturday 8 May: 1800BST – Result from the largest single election of the cycle due to
come through in the form of the London mayoralty. Incumbent Labour mayor Sadiq Khan
due to win either in the first round or comfortably in the second round against Conservative
challenger Shaun Bailey. Final seats from Scotland due to declare to show whether the SNP
has been able to secure a majority of seats to further its pro-independence cause.
Sunday 9 May: 1200BST – A small amount of English councils due to declare, with the
minority Liberal Democrat-run St Albans and Oxfordshire, where the Conservatives are
seeking to gain a majority.
Sunday 9 May: 1600BST – Some of the first police and crime commissioner races due to
declare, as will the mayoralty of West Yorkshire. There, incumbent Labour Batley and Spen
MP Tracy Brabin is favourite to win. She has announced that if she does emerge victorious
she will give up her seat in the House of Commons, triggering a by-election. Final English
council elections due to call their results.
Monday 10 May – Final results of the election due to be revealed with remaining police and
crime commissioners set to be declared.
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Business Address – MNI Market News, 5th Floor, 69 Leadenhall Street, London, EC3A 2 BG_______________________________________
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