MNI POLTICAL RISK ANALYSIS: 2022 Political Event Calendar
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MNI POLTICAL RISK ANALYSIS: 2022 Political Event Calendar
by Tom Lake and Adam Burrowes
Country/
Date Event Type Further Information
Organisation
January
Germany takes over presidency of the G7 from the United Kingdom. France takes over
01-Jan Global Transition
presidency of the Council of the European Union from Slovenia.
Several grace periods regarding the trade in goods between the United Kingdom and the
United European Union comes to an end, with customs checks implemented as well as checks
01-Jan Kingdom/European Political Event on sanitary and phytosanitary standards of agricultural products. The UK has chosen to
Union delay checks on goods arriving from the Republic of Ireland as ‘a show of good faith’ as
UK and EU seek a deal over the disputed Northern Ireland protocol.
Members of Parliament and regional representatives set to elect a president to take over
from the retiring Sergio Mattarella. Moderate politicians are pressuring Mattarella (80) to
recant his retirement and stay in office until the next legislative election in 2023, when
04-Jan Italy Presidential Election
incumbent PM Mario Draghi would be favourite to take over. The Italian presidency is
largely ceremonial, however Mattarella's calming actions in recent years have been seen
as key in avoiding political collapse and gridlock.
MEPs vote for the next European Parliament president to serve a 2.5-year term.
Incumbent President David Sassoli, from Italy's PD sitting within the centre-left S&D
17-Jan European Union Leadership Election group, has said he will not stand again. This clears the way for Maltese MEP Roberta
Metsola, from the centre-right EPP, to win with the support of the main pro-EU groups in
parliament.
1
Business Address – MNI Market News, 5th Floor, 69 Leadenhall Street, London, EC3A 2 BGCentre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) holds party congress to officially elect
Friedrich Merz as new party leader. Conservative Merz is likely to take the party in a more
21-Jan Germany Party Election
rightwards political direction than had been the case for 16 years under former Chancellor
Angela Merkel.
Snap general election. PM Antonio Costa's centre-left Socialists are favourite to retain a
plurality. If the party falls short of a majority, an alliance with the main centre-right
30-Jan Portugal Legislative Election opposition Social Democrats could be the most likely outcome. Reformation of previous
government with far-left Left Bloc and Unitary Democratic Coalition unlikely following the
falling out over the 2022 budget that resulted in the snap election being called.
February
State elections take place in five Indian states; Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Manipur, Goa, and
Uttarkhand. Includes Uttar Pradesh, India's most populous state with over 200mn
inhabitants. This state election alone is the sixth-biggest democratic exercise worldwide,
Feb-Mar India State Elections behind only national elections in India, the US, Indonesia, Pakistan, Brazil, and Nigeria.
PM Modi's BJP currently govern in four of the five states (Punjab the exception). Polls will
be viewed as something of a referendum on Modi's leadership over the course of the
COVID-19 pandemic and in wake of farmer protests in 2020/21.
February Singapore Fiscal Event Finance Minister Lawrence Wong set to present the 2022 Budet.
01-Feb India Fiscal Event Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman set to present the FY2022/23 Union Budget.
2022 Winter Olympic Games open in Beijing, China. Continue to 20 February. The
Games have become a major political touchpoint, with a number of Western nations
04-Feb Global Sporting Event
announcing explicit or implicit diplomatic boycotts of the event due to alleged Chinese
human rights abuses.
Queen Elizabeth II set to celebrate her Platinum Jubilee, having sat on the throne for 70
06-Feb United Kingdom Other
years. No other British monarch has reigned for this long.
The Federal Convention, formed by the members of the Bundestag and Bundesrat, will
13-Feb Germany Presidential Election
elect the next president. Incumbent President Frank-Walter Steinmeier, hailing from
2
Business Address – MNI Market News, 5th Floor, 69 Leadenhall Street, London, EC3A 2 BGincoming chancellor Olaf Scholz's Social Democratic Party, is running for a second term
and is not likely to face a stiff challenge for the largely ceremonial office.
Sixth European Union-African Union summit takes place in Brussels, Belgium. Continues
17-Feb EU-AU Summit through to 18 Feb. The event was initially scheduled to take place in October 2020 but
was delayed due to the pandemic.
March
March Arab League summit set to take place in Algiers, Algeria. This is set to be the first summit
MENA Summit
(TBD) to take place since the Tunis summit held in March 2019.
President Moon Jae-in's single five-year term in office concludes, with his centre-left
Democratic Party putting up former Gyeonggi Province governor Lee Jae-myung up
against conservative People Power Party candidate, former prosecutor general Yoon
09-Mar South Korea Presidential Election Seok-youl. Cost and availability of housing likely to be the major issue in the election
campaign, which has been marked by bitter exchanges between candidates. Yoon seen
as an early favourite. His party takes a more hawkish stance on North Korea and China
than the incumbent Moon's Democratic Party.
Elections to the 171-member House of Representatives and 108-member Senate take
place. Comes two months ahead of the presidential election. The composition of the
13-Mar Colombia Parliamentary Election parliament elected in March could prove an important indicator of voter sentiment going
into the presidential vote, with left-wing populist candidate Gustavo Petro already rattling
market sentiment in Colombia.
Regional election could take on new importance as South Australia is set to be the final
state election before the federal election due by September. Incumbent minority Liberals
19-Mar Australia State Election
looking to win an additional two seats that would give the party an overall majority in the
House of Representatives.
3
Business Address – MNI Market News, 5th Floor, 69 Leadenhall Street, London, EC3A 2 BGFirst European Council leaders' summit of 2022 takes place in Brussels, Belgium.
24-Mar European Union Summit
Continues to 25 March.
1,500-strong Election Committee to vote on the next Chief Executive of Hong Kong.
Incumbent Carrie Lam is eligible to run for a second term. The Election Committee is
Chief Executive formed of pro-Beijing representatives from business, society groups, the Legislative
27-Mar Hong Kong
Election Council, and the National People's Congress. This will be the first chief executive election
since the National Security law was imposed on Hong Kong in 2019 that phased out
many of Hong Kong's democratic freedoms.
Election to the Landtag of Germany's smallest non-city state, Saarland. The current
government is a 'grand coalition' of the CDU and SPD. While only a small state, this will
27-Mar Germany State Election be the first state-level electoral contest in Germany since the Scholz government took
office, and therefore will be closely monitored for signs of public support or opposition to
the government's first months in office.
29-Mar Australia Fiscal Event Treasurer Josh Frydenberg is set to present the 2022 Federal Budget
April
President Aleksandar Vucic is eligible to run for a second term in office and is the
overwhelming favourite to win the presidency. His populist Serbian Progressive Party-led
03-Apr Serbia General Election coalition also remains likely to hold onto its substantial majority in the National Assembly.
A continuation of the Vucic presidency means Serbia's long-standing foreign policy stance
of courting both European and Russian favour could continue well into the 2020s.
4
Business Address – MNI Market News, 5th Floor, 69 Leadenhall Street, London, EC3A 2 BGFirst round of the presidential election take place. Numerous candidates will contest the
vote, and in the likely scenario that no single candidate wins 50%+1 of the vote the two
highest placed candidates go through to a second round. Incumbent President Emmanuel
10-Apr France Presidential Election
Macron, Rassembelement National leader Marine Le Pen, right-wing polemicist Eric
Zemmour, and centre-right Les Republicains candidate XXXXX set to contest for the two
second round spots.
Second round run-off election takes place between the two highest-placed candidates in
24-Apr France Presidential Election
the first round. Candidate with the largest number of votes is elected president.
Voters to election 90 members of the National Assembly. Populist Slovenian Democratic
Party PM Janesz Jansa will be seeking a fourth non-consecutive term in office. Significant
24-Apr Slovenia Legislative Election implications for Slovenian government policy, with Jansa's populist style and rhetoric
coming in for major criticism from liberals and the EU. His ouster would likely see a more
pro-EU government come to power.
Prime Minister Viktor Orban and his right-wing populist Fidesz Party seeking a fourth
consecutive term in office. The main opposition parties have formed a united group with
Apr-May Hungary Legislative Election economist and mayor Peter Marki-Zay as its leader in an effort to oust the controversial
Orban. Should Orban lose it would prove a major blow to EU populists, with the
Hungarian PM proving one of the movement's most influential figures in recent years.
May
Ohio holds its Congressional, Senate, and Gubernatorial primaries. Incumbent
03-May United States State Primary Election Republican Senator Rob Portman is standing down after two terms in office, making the
GOP primary a close one to watch.
5
Business Address – MNI Market News, 5th Floor, 69 Leadenhall Street, London, EC3A 2 BGLocal elections take place in England, Scotland, and Wales. Voters in Northern Ireland
elect the next Northern Ireland assembly. Assembly election could prove a watershed,
05-May United Kingdom Local Elections
with Irish republican Sinn Fein leading polls with the potential to become the largest party
at Stormont.
Germany's northernmost state Schleswig-Holstein holds its Landtag election. The current
state government is formed by the centre-right CDU, environmentalist Greens, and pro-
08-May Germany State Election
business liberal FDP. SPD lead polls and could be best placed to lead formation of the
next regional government.
Fiercely contested election takes place to succeed President Rodrigo Duterte. Early
frontrunner is son of former dictator Ferdinand Marcos, centre right PFP nominee
Presidential and Ferdinand 'Bongbong' Marcos Jr. Marcos has teamed up with VP candidate Sara Duterte,
09-May Philippines
Legislative Election daughter of the incumbent on a joint ticket. Other leading candidates for president include
centre-left Mayor of Manilla Isko Moreno and former world welterweight boxing champion
Senator Manny Pacquiao.
Congressional/Senate/gubernatorial primary elections take place in Idaho, Kentucky,
North Carolina, Oregon, and Pennsylvania. Republican primaries in North Carolina and
17-May United States State Primary Election
Pennsylvania will be closely-watched with incumbent senators Richard Burr and Pat
Toomey standing down.
Likely date for federal election, could be as early as 7 May. All 151 seats in the House of
Representatives and one-half of the Senate seats up for grabs. PM Scott Morrison hoping
21-May Australia Legislative Election that his centre-right Liberal/National coalition can hold onto its narrow majority over the
centre-left Australian Labor Party of Anthony Albanese. Liberals have held power since
2013.
Congressional/Senate/gubernatorial primary elections take place in Alabama, Arkansas,
Georgia, and Texas. Republican primary in Alabama watched with incumbent Richard
24-May United States State Primary Election Shelby not standing again. Texas gubernatorial second round primary could see
incumbent GOP Governor Greg Abbott confirmed to run against Democratic hopeful Beto
O'Rourke.
6
Business Address – MNI Market News, 5th Floor, 69 Leadenhall Street, London, EC3A 2 BGFirst round of the presidential election. Incumbent Ivan Duque is limited to a single four-
29-May Colombia Presidential Election year term in office. Early frontrunner is leftist former Bogota mayor Gustavo Petro.
Conservative former Medellin mayor Federico Gutierrez also seen as a likely candidate.
June
European Council leaders' summit takes place in Brussels, Belgium. Continues to 24
23-Jun European Union Summit
June.
The Group of Seven (G7) Summit 2022 is to take place at Schloss Elmau, a castle resort
26-Jun G7 Summit in the Bavarian Alps in southern Germany on June 26-28. Will be the first G7 summit for
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Japanese PM Fumio Kishida.
NATO leaders' summit in Madrid, Spain. Continues to June 30. Major issues of discussion
likely to focus on Russia's actions in eastern Europe, as well as NATO countries' stance
29-Jun NATO Summit towards the Chinese government's actions in east Asia. Intra-NATO tensions also to the
fore, with the US and other nations concerned with Turkey's close relationship with
Moscow.
July
Incumbent Ram Nath Kovind (BJP). The President of India is indirectly elected by an
electoral college consisting of the elected members of both houses of parliament, the
elected members of the Legislative assemblies of the 28 states and the elected members
July India Presidential Elections
of the legislative assemblies of the Union Territories of Delhi, Puducherry and Jammu and
Kashmir. Sharad Pawar, Karan Singh, and Bhim Singh seen as potential candidates for
the largely ceremonial position.
Czech Republic takes over from France as president of the rotating Presidency of the
01-Jul European Union Transition
Council of the European Union.
7
Business Address – MNI Market News, 5th Floor, 69 Leadenhall Street, London, EC3A 2 BGUnited Kingdom Safety and security declarations will be required at customs checks between the UK and
01-Jul and European Political Event EU from this day onwards. There will also be physical checks SPS checks on products of
Union animal origin. All agreed as part of the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement.
The final date by which the Constitutional Convention can vote on the draft for a new
04-Jul Chile Other constitution. Whether the vote passes or not, the Convention will be dissolved after this
point.
Japan is to elect 124 of the 245 members of the House of Councillors, the upper house of
the bicameral National Diet, for a term of six years. The election takes place less than a
25-Jul Japan Legislative Election year since Fumio Kishida took over as PM, and it will see Kenta Izumi face his first
election as the head of the opposition CDP. Kishida's LDP and their Komeito allies
currently hold a majority with 137 seats in the chamber.
Commonwealth Games begin in Birmingham, England. Continue to 8 August. Seen as a
key event in maintaining unity of Commonwealth nations that were formerly part of the
28-Jul Commonwealth Sporting Event
British Empire. First since the end of Queen Elizabeth II's reign as Barbados' head of
state following the country's transition to a republic.
August
Elections for the President and National Assembly. Incumbent President Joao Lourenco
of the dominant MPLA is eligible for one more term. The three main opposition parties will
August Angola General Election field a single candidate under the United Patriotic Front banner in an attempt to out
Lourenco following 46-years of MPLA rule, with Adalberto Costa Jr. as the alliance's
candidate.
8
Business Address – MNI Market News, 5th Floor, 69 Leadenhall Street, London, EC3A 2 BGIncumbent President Uhuru Kenyatta is unable to run for a third term in office due to term
limits. Widespread corruption and perceptions of voting irregularities has contributed to
the electoral commission stating its concern at very low voter registration levels. While
09-Aug Kenya General Election
Kenyatta cannot run again, his influence over the election will be felt in the guise of his
Jubilee Party's candidate. Former PM and 2017 presidential candidate Raila Odinga is set
to run for office once again.
September
Incumbent Alexander Van der Bellen (Independent) eligible for one more term. His 2016
September Austria Presidential Election opponent, Norbert Hofer of the right-wing Freedom Party, has expressed an interest in
running again. Official date not set but the president must be sworn in by 26th Jan 2023
Elections take place for the 349 members of the unicameral Riksdag. Incumbent PM
Magdalena Andersson of the centre-left Social Democrats will look to secure enough
11-Sep Sweden Legislative Election
support to lead the next coalition government. Faces tough challenge from right-wing
parties seeking to oust minority centre-left government after eight years in opposition.
SCO summit in Ashgabat, Uzbekistan. The group encompasses China, Kazakhstan,
Shanghai Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, India, Pakistan, Iran (acceding), and has
17-Sep Cooperation Summit Afghanistan, Belarus, and Mongolia as observer states and Sri Lanka, Turkey, Cambodia,
Organisation Azerbaijan, Nepal, and Armenia as dialogue partners. The SCO has proved a useful
vehicle for China to expand its Belt and Road investment program.
First round of the presidential election. Incumbent Borut Pahor cannot run again due to
24-Sep Slovenia Presidential Election
term limits. If no candidate recieves over 50% of the vote, a run-off takes place.
9
Business Address – MNI Market News, 5th Floor, 69 Leadenhall Street, London, EC3A 2 BGOctober
20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party set to take place in October or
November. No set date yet. The National Congress is the CCP's largest event, taking
Oct-Nov China Party Congress place once every five years. The event will be unprecedented in inviting president Xi
Jingping to serve for a third term in office. A new leadership team is likely to be selected,
with only those most loyal to Xi's leadership promoted to senior positions.
The 100 members of the Saeima are elected by open list proportional representation from
01-Oct Latvia Legislative Election five multi-member constituencies. Centre-right New Unity-led government of PM Krisjanis
Karins seeking a second term in office.
Elections for the House of Representatives in Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and
Republika Srpska, as well as presidential elections for the three members of the
Bosnia and presidency from the Bosniak, Croat, and Serb communities. Tensions in Bosnia remain
02-Oct General Election
Herzegovina high following a Serb separatist threat to creat their own army, dividing the armed forces
into two. EU has warned of the risk of a return to conflict, and the election could see
tensions spike further.
Presidential and Congressional elections take place. President Jair Bolsonaro seeks a
second term in office, facing stiff competition from former President Luis Inacio Lula da
02-Oct Brazil General Election Silva, the likely candidate of the leftist Workers' Party. If no candidate receives over 50%
of the vote, a run-off will take place on 30 October. Given the febrile political environment
in Brazil, there is the notable prospect of post-election unrest.
North-western state of Lower Saxony holds election to its regional parliament. Current
government formed by centre-left Social Democrats and centre-right Christian Democrats.
09-Oct Germany Regional Election
Social Democrats polling in first place following 2021 federal election, but no guarantee
this support will hold up as Olaf Scholz comes up on 10 months as German chancellor.
10
Business Address – MNI Market News, 5th Floor, 69 Leadenhall Street, London, EC3A 2 BGThe 2022 G20 Bali, Indonesia summit is the upcoming seventeenth meeting of Group of
Twenty (G20), the summit scheduled to take place in Bali, Indonesia, in 2022. Indonesia's
presidency will begin to take course from 1 December 2021 up to the summit on fourth
30-Oct G20 Summit
quarter of 2022. Handover ceremony of the presidency will be taken by the President of
the Republic of Indonesia, Joko Widodo from Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi at the
closing of Rome summit.
November
Midterm elections take place, with all 435 seats in the US House of Representatives and
one-third of the 100 seats in the US Senate up for grabs. In addition, 36 states and three
territories will vote for their governors, and 46 states will elect state legislative bodies. The
08-Nov United States Legislative Elections
Democrats are trying to hold onto their narrow majority in the House and retain effective
control of the Senate with its current 50-50 split. Should the GOP take either chamber it
will make it very difficult for the Biden administration to pass meaningful legislation.
FIFA World Cup kicks off in Qatar. Continues to 18 December. Event is first World Cup to
21-Nov Global Sporting Event take place in MENA region, first in winter, and has drawn criticism from human rights
groups and progressive organisations for alleged abuses in Qatar.
The state of Victoria holds elections for its Legislative Assembly and Legislative Council.
Incumbent Labor administration of Premier Daniel Andrews looking to hold onto its
26-Nov Australia Regional Election
majority. Comes after the federal election, which could have a notable impact on the
Victorian election.
11
Business Address – MNI Market News, 5th Floor, 69 Leadenhall Street, London, EC3A 2 BGDecember
Fine Gael leader and current Tanaiste (deputy PM) Leo Varadkar is set to take over from
incumbent Fianna Fail Taoiseach (PM) Micheal Martin as laid out in the coalition
15-Dec Ireland Transition
agreement between the two parties agreed following the 2020 general election. Varadkar
served previously as PM from 2017 to 2020.
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