Monthly Market Update (India) - October 2020 |iFAST Research - Fundsupermart
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Monthly Market Update (India) – October 2020 |iFAST Research
MARKETS ACROSS THE GLOBE
2020 2019-20 2019
MTD 1Y (%) Return (%)
Asia ex Japan (MSCI Asia ex Japan) -1.68% 15.34% 15.37%
Emerging Markets (MSCI EM) -1.77% 8.09% 15.42%
Europe (Stoxx 600) -1.48% -8.15% 23.16%
Japan (Nikkei 225) 0.20% 6.57% 18.20%
USA (S&P 500) -3.92% 12.98% 28.88%
Brazil (IBOV) -4.80% -9.68% 31.58%
China (HS Mainland 100) -4.99% -1.39% 12.12%
Hong Kong (HSI) -6.82% -10.09% 9.07%
India (SENSEX) -1.45% -1.55% 14.38%
Indonesia (JCI) -7.03% -21.06% 1.70%
Malaysia (KLCI) -1.34% -4.99% -6.02%
Russia (RTSI$) -2.04% 5.77% 28.55%
Singapore (STI) -2.60% -20.94% 5.02%
South Korea (KOSPI) 0.07% 12.84% 7.67%
Taiwan (Taiwan Weighted) -0.60% 15.57% 23.33%
Thailand (SET Index) -5.62% -24.44% 1.02%
*Returns are as at 30th September 2020. Source: Bloomberg, iFAST Compilations All returns are in respective local
currency terms and MSCI Index returns are in USD
Monthly Market Update (India) – October 2020 |iFAST ResearchECONOMIC INDICATORS
Trade (August’20) Markets & Valuations Inflation (August ’20)
India’s CPI came at 6.69% (provisional) during the month
India’s exports during August 2020 were valued at USD (As on September 30, 2020) of August 2020. Food and Beverages which have a
22.70 billion registering a negative growth of (-) 12.66% in The benchmark Index (Sensex) was at 38,067.93 weightage of 45.86% in the CPI basket reported increased
dollar terms as compared to USD 25.99 billion during the
in prices by 8.29% in August 2020.The prices of Cereals
month of August 2019. Imports during August 2020 were Estimated PE & earnings growth for BSE Sensex and products increased by 5.92%, prices of milk &
valued at USD 29.47 billion which was (-) 26.04% lower in
products increased by 6.15%. Vegetables prices increased
dollar terms as compared to imports which were valued at
2020 2021 2022 11.41%. Consumer Food price index came at 9.05% for the
USD 39.85 billion in August 2019.
Price/Earnings 22.61 24.54 17.98 month.
For exports, the major commodity groups showing Earnings Growth 20.46% -7.84% 36.50%
negative growth over the corresponding month of last
year are Gems & Jewellery (-43.28%), Marine products (-
23.04%), Leather & leather products (-16.82%) & RMG of
all textiles (-14%).
For imports, major commodity groups showing high
changes in August 2020 over the corresponding month of
last year are Machinery, electrical & non-electrical (-
41.58%), Electronic Goods (-11.67%) and Petroleum (-
41.62%). The trade deficit for the month of August 2020
stood at USD 6.77 billion as against the deficit of USD
13.86 billion during August 2019.
Industrial Production (August ‘20)
In August 2020, India's IIP declined by 8 percent year-on-
year on account of lower output of manufacturing, mining
and power generation sectors. Gradual easing of
restrictions, a gradual uptick in activity levels and return of
labour from the hinterland should help the numbers
recover slowly. That said, consumer and investment
demand continue to go through a rough patch. The IIP for
the Mining, Manufacturing and Electricity sectors for the
month of August 2020 stand at 83.0, 117.4 and 162.3
respectively.
Monthly Market Update (India) – October 2020 |iFAST ResearchEQUITY MARKET
BSE Sensex - Top & bottom performers in September 2020. We advise our investors to stay invested in large-cap funds. Enter the market via the SIP route
depending on their risk profile and time horizon..
Top Performers MTD Bottom Performers MTD
HCL Technologies Ltd 17% Bharti Airtel Ltd -18.1% Broader Indices (Performance % in September
2020)* 3.71
BSE SMALL CAP
Tata Consultancy
Services Ltd 10% IndusInd Bank Ltd -16.4% BSE MID CAP 0.30
Oil & Natural Gas
Titan Co Ltd 9% Corp Ltd -15.5% Nifty Index -1.23
BSE Sensex-1.45
Earnings growth estimates of top weighted stocks:
Stock FY-20 FY-21 FY-22 -2 0 2 4
HDFC Bank Ltd. -2.38% 1.31% 23.09%
Reliance Industries Ltd. 10.92% -6.79% 51.63%
Sectoral Indices (Performance % in September 2020)*
Equity View BSE IT 10.66
In September 2020 BSE Sensex declined by -1.45% after staying positive for
BSE-HC 7.68
BSE CD 6.68
3months. Thus volatility prevailed for the month as COVID-19 new cases
BSE TECK 5.86
continued to rise as investors were worried at the slow global economic BSE AUTO 1.08
recovery. On the domestic front, the India-China issue kept the investors on BSE CG 0.67
tenterhooks. Global cues were weak as there was a concern of fresh lockdowns BSE Power -1.01
in the U.K and Europe. Fed Reserve alarmed without a Fiscal stimulus from U.S BSE FMCG -2.62
government economic recovery would laggard which further dampened the BSE Realty -4.95
market sentiments. A Leading pharma company in India signed a deal for COVID- BSE METAL -5.99
BSE Oil & Gas -6.43
19 vaccine clinical trial and access for distribution with Russia which cheered the
BSE Bankex -9.71
domestic markets. On the global front, China’s economic indicators stayed strong
and hope for COVID-19 relief package in the USA further stabilized the markets. -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15
BSE Smallcap and Midcap outperformed Sensex for the month. On the sectoral
Source: Bloomberg, iFAST Compilations. All returns are in respective local currency terms
front BSE I.T, BSE Healthcare and BSE Consumer Durables indices were among
the top performers for the month.
Monthly Market Update (India) – October 2020 |iFAST ResearchDEBT MARKET OUTLOOK
10 Year G-sec Yield Curve
Fixed Income View 6.10
During September 2020, the 10-year G-sec yield increased to 6.01% at the
6.05
month-end from 5.94% at the start of the month. The excess liquidity of 6.00
Sovereign debt and concerns whether there would be excess borrowing by the
5.95
government in the second half of the fiscal year dampened the market
sentiments and raised the bond yields. RBI conducted OMO for Rs.10,000 crores 5.90
which for some extent helped ease the yields. The yield remained elevated as the 5.85
market participants were waiting to foresee the borrowing plan of the
5.80
government. The government announced Rs. 4, 34,000 crores as the second half
1-Sep-20
2-Sep-20
3-Sep-20
4-Sep-20
5-Sep-20
6-Sep-20
7-Sep-20
8-Sep-20
9-Sep-20
11-Sep-20
25-Sep-20
10-Sep-20
12-Sep-20
13-Sep-20
14-Sep-20
15-Sep-20
16-Sep-20
17-Sep-20
18-Sep-20
19-Sep-20
20-Sep-20
21-Sep-20
22-Sep-20
23-Sep-20
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26-Sep-20
27-Sep-20
28-Sep-20
29-Sep-20
30-Sep-20
borrowing for FY21. Thus easing the market sentiments as the government
maintained its borrowing target. The gradual opening of the economy has seen
an uptick in the pent-up demand. Overall easing the yield from the month high.
We would like to suggest that stay invested in Liquid, short duration and Source: Bloomberg, iFAST Compilations. All returns are in respective local currency terms
corporate bond funds.
.
Monthly Market Update (India) – October 2020 |iFAST ResearchGLOBAL MARKET UPDATE – GROUP 7 COUNTRIES
G7 Countries - Performance in September 2020* Europe
The recent acceleration of COVID-19 cases is stalling the recovery of Europe, as economic
Japan (Nikkei 225) 0.20%
activities have halted their expansion towards pre-Covid levels. The prospect of the region
Germany (DAX) -1.43% turned a tad cloudy as recent economic data disappoints and indicates an uneven rebound
UK (FTSE 100) -1.63% across the region. On the bright side, consumer confidence remains positive as not all
Canada (S&P/TSX) -2.60% nations are hit hard by the resurgence of COVID-19 cases and the underlying death rates
-2.91% remains low. Economic activities of many European economies are also operating at a higher
France (CAC-40)
level (versus pre-Covid) as compared to the US. While the European recovery story
Italy (FTSE MIB) -3.15% continues, we expect it to be rocky and we are keeping an eye on the COVID-19 situation. At
USA (S&P 500) -3.92% the current juncture, we have upgraded to 3 Stars “Attractive” rating for Europe.
-6% -4% -2% 0% 2%
Japan
Japan ability to contain the spread of COVID-19. The recovery story for Japan continues to
*Source: Bloomberg, iFAST Compilations. All returns are in respective local currency terms
rebound robustly. Industrial production and core machine orders for Japan rebounded at a
robust pace in July. Japanese export growth extended their rebound since April lows. Japan's
Our View
services sector, which is a key driver of its economy, is likely to take some time to recover
USA due to the ongoing second wave of infections. Overall, as Japan faces a less serious COVID-
Economic indicators continue to rebound in certain areas of the US economy. 19 threat, we expect recovery to pick up albeit gradually.We maintain our star ratings of the
PMIs, retail sales and industrial sectors extended their recovery but are Japanese market at an “Attractive” rating of 3 stars.
gradually stalling. Policy gridlock is also holding back the much needed fiscal
stimulus. Consumer sentiment and confidence remain depressed, likely due
to uncertainty ahead of the elections and the lack of stimulus. While the
initial rebound has been robust, the sustainability of a recovery is an open
question as infections continue and unclear fiscal outlook clouds the
prospect. Overall, much of the US economy is recovering well, but the labour
market and consumers remain under duress and coupled by a delay in fiscal
stimulus, recovery momentum for FY 20 may slow in 4Q. We maintain our
rating of 2.0 Stars “Unattractive” for the US equity market.
Monthly Market Update (India) – October 2020 |iFAST ResearchGLOBAL MARKET UPDATE – ASIA PACIFIC (Ex-JAPAN)
Asia Pacific (Ex Japan) - Performance in September 2020*
South Korea (KOSPI) 0.07%
Taiwan (Taiwan Weighted) -0.60%
Malaysia (KLCI) -1.34%
Singapore (STI) -2.60%
Australia (S&P/ASX 200) -4.03%
Thailand (SET Index) -5.62%
Hong Kong (HSI) -6.82%
Indonesia (JCI) -7.03%
-8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2%
*Source: Bloomberg, iFAST Compilations. All returns are in respective local currency terms
Our View
Asia ex Japan
Economic data for Asia ex-Japan economies broadly improved over the June/
July period. Both trade related data (manufacturing PMI, exports and
industrial production) and consumption related data (retail sales and
consumer confidence) extended its recovery. Within the bloc, the recovery
picture remains mixed with Singapore and Thailand entering a recession.
Overall, Asia ex-Japan is well supported by China's quick and robust rebound
and the region should see a faster recovery to pre Covid levels than other
regions (i e US, EU, LATAM, EMEA). We maintain a 4.5 Stars “Very Attractive”
rating.
Monthly Market Update (India) – October 2020 |iFAST ResearchGLOBAL MARKET UPDATE – BRIC (Ex-India)
BRIC (Ex-India) - Performance in September 2020*
Brazil (IBOV) -4.80%
China (HS Mainland 100) -4.99%
-6.36%
Russia (RTSI$)
-8% -6% -4% -2% 0%
*Source: Bloomberg, iFAST Compilations. All returns are in respective local currency terms
Our View
China
PMIs, industrial production, retail sales and inflation saw an improvement
in July on aggregate as the China recovery story continues. Consumer
confidence, however, seems to have hit a wall after March but on the
bright side, it does not have any spillover effect on consumption. We are
seeing a healthy recovery in China's consumption and we expect domestic
demand to drive China’s recovery for the rest of the year. Although there
were several small outbreaks, they were usually well under control due to
the strict measures by the government. Thus, we are not expecting any
major wave in the near future that may impede China's recovery. While
the macro recovery picture is rosy for China, it still faces the risk of US
China political tensions which may have material impact on growth. We
maintain for China A-‘4.0 stars’, China H-‘4.5 stars’ “Very Attractive”.
Monthly Market Update (India) – October 2020 |iFAST ResearchFUND CATEGORY RETURNS
Fund Category Returns (As on September 2020 end)
1 Month 1 Year
Equity: Large Cap -1.17 -2.42
Equity: Multi Cap -0.28 -0.90
Equity: Mid Cap 2.63 8.34
Equity: Small Cap 4.05 10.52
Equity: ELSS -0.19 -0.57
Equity: Index -1.14 -1.93
Hybrid: Aggressive Hybrid Funds -0.36 0.85
Hybrid: Conservative Hybrid Fund 0.29 4.78
Debt: Gilt 1.00 10.00
Debt: Medium to Long Duration Fund 0.68 8.69
Debt: Short Duration Fund 0.48 7.83
Debt: Ultra Short Duration Fund 0.31 5.80
Debt: Liquid 0.26 4.56
Other: FOF Overseas -3.41 14.27
Solution Oriented Fund -0.21 2.79
Source: NAV India, iFAST Compilations
Monthly Market Update (India) – October 2020 |iFAST ResearchTOP & BOTTOM EQUITY FUNDS
Top and Bottom Performing Equity Funds on our Platform as on 30th September 2020
Large Cap Funds Multi Cap Funds
Scheme 1 Month 1 Year Scheme 1 Month 1 Year
IDFC Large Cap Fund (G) 0.99 3.82 BOI AXA Multi Cap Fund (G) 4.17 0.00
PGIM India Large Cap Fund (G) 0.54 -1.52 Tata Multicap Fund - Regular (G) 3.26 2.41
Franklin India Bluechip Fund - (G) -4.88 -6.68 Nippon India Multi Cap Fund (G) -4.60 -15.22
Nippon India Large Cap Fund (G) -5.76 -11.95 HDFC Equity Fund - (G) -5.27 -13.13
Mid Cap Funds ELSS Funds
Scheme 1 Month 1 Year Scheme 1 Month 1 Year
PGIM India Midcap Opportunities Fund (G) 6.08 31.04 Parag Parikh Tax Saver Fund (G) 5.88 19.12
Union Midcap Fund (G) 5.45 0.00 Canara Robeco Equity Tax Saver Fund (G) 3.98 10.54
Nippon India Growth Fund - (G) 0.64 7.17 Franklin India Taxshield - (G) -3.61 -10.79
Franklin India Prima Fund - (G) -0.35 -1.39 HDFC Tax Saver Fund (G) -3.67 -9.10
Small Cap Funds
Scheme 1 Month 1 Year
BOI AXA Small Cap Fund (G) 6.31 34.54
HSBC Small Cap Equity Fund (G) 6.04 5.43
ICICI Pru Smallcap Fund (G) 2.17 5.14
HDFC Small Cap Fund (G) 1.96 -2.24
Source: NAV India, iFAST Compilations
Monthly Market Update (India) – October 2020 |iFAST ResearchTOP & BOTTOM DEBT and HYBRID FUNDS
Top and Bottom Performing Debt and Hybrid Funds on our Platform as on 30th September 2020
Aggressive Hybrid Funds Conservative Hybrid Funds
Scheme 1 Month 1 Year Scheme 1 Month 1 Year
BOI AXA Mid & Small Cap Equity & Debt Fund (G) 5.89 18.54 BOI AXA Conservative Hybrid Fund (G) 1.58 9.89
Invesco India Equity & Bond Fund - Regular (G) 2.11 1.09 UTI-Regular Savings Fund (G) 1.03 2.24
Nippon India Equity Hybrid Fund (G) -2.52 -17.82 Indiabulls Savings Income Fund (G) -0.94 1.31
ICICI Pru Equity & Debt Fund - (G) -4.89 -4.50 HDFC Hybrid Debt Fund (G) -1.09 3.63
Medium to Long Duration Funds Gilt
Scheme 1 Month 1 Year Scheme 1 Month 1 Year
IDFC Bond Fund - Income Plan - Reg (G) 1.15 10.10 DSP G-Sec Fund (G) 1.50 11.83
SBI Magnum Income Fund - (G) 0.97 12.43 Edelweiss Govt Securities Fund (G) 1.38 10.56
Tata Income Fund - (Growth) 0.35 10.60 Franklin India G-Sec Fund (G) 0.64 7.72
Aditya Birla SL Income Fund (G) 0.18 10.46 Invesco India Gilt Fund (G) 0.32 6.88
Short Duration Funds
Scheme 1 Month 1 Year
Franklin India STI (G) (Wound up) 1.52 -11.13
Aditya Birla SL Short Term Fund (G) 1.34 9.97
Invesco India Short Term Fund (G) 0.21 9.05
Indiabulls Short Term Fund (G) 0.04 4.32
Source: NAV India, iFAST Compilations
Monthly Market Update (India) – October 2020 |iFAST ResearchTOP & BOTTOM OTHER & SOLUTION ORIENTED FUNDS
Top and Bottom Performing Other Funds on our Platform as on 30th September 2020
FOF Overseas Funds
Scheme 1 Month 1 Year
DSP World Agriculture Fund (G) 0.28 15.62
HSBC Global Emerging Markets Fund (G) -0.74 20.42
DSP World Gold Fund (G) -7.53 48.00
HSBC Brazil Fund (G) -9.90 -32.36
Top and Bottom Performing Solution Oriented Funds on our Platform as on 30th September 2020
Solution Oriented Funds
Scheme 1 Month 1 Year
Tata Retirement Savings Fund - Progressive (G) 2.73 4.10
Tata Retirement Savings Fund - Moderate (G) 2.40 5.65
ICICI Pru Retirement Fund - Hybrid AP (G) -2.04 -1.46
ICICI Pru Retirement Fund - Pure Equity (G) -2.89 -7.08
Source: NAV India, iFAST Compilations
Monthly Market Update (India) – October 2020 |iFAST ResearchDISCLAIMER: THIS REPORT IS NOT TO BE CONSTRUED AS AN OFFER OR SOLICITATION FOR THE SUBSCRIPTION, PURCHASE OR SALE OF ANY MUTUAL FUND. ANY ADVICE HEREIN IS MADE
ON A GENERAL BASIS AND DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE SPECIFIC INVESTMENT OBJECTIVE OF THE SPECIFIC PERSON OR GROUP OF PERSONS. PAST PERFORMANCE AND ANY
FORECAST IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF THE FUTURE OR LIKE PERFORMANCE OF THE MUTUAL FUND. THE VALUE OF UNITS AND THE INCOME FROM THEM MAY FALL AS WELL AS
RISE. OPINIONS EXPRESSED HEREIN ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITHOUT NOTICE.
MUTUAL FUND INVESTMENTS ARE SUBJECT TO MARKET RISKS, READ ALL SCHEME RELATED DOCUMENTS CAREFULLY.
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