Morning Briefing May 18th 2015 Monday is another session light on European and UK data and the US calendar only offers second tier data - Eurex
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A Eurex publication focused on European financial markets, produced by MNl
Morning Briefing
May 18th 2015
Monday is another session light on The last US data release due E0.1bln and France E2.8bln, leaving
European and UK data and the US Monday is the May NAHB Index, due net cash flow positiveto the tune of
calendar only offers second tier data. at 1400GMT. E14.1bln versus E13.06bln last
week.
The European calendar gets Sovereign bond issuance in the
underway at 0600GMT, when Eurozone this week is seen picking As far as T-bill supply in the
Chicago Federal Reserve Bank up pace and estimated to come in Eurozone is concerned for this week,
President Charles Evans delivers a around E18bln versus E14.16bln supply is seen falling moderately and
speech at the Swedbank conference sold last week. estimated at E15.5bln, compared to
in Stockholm. E22.924bln issued last week, with
Slovakia kicks off supply on Monday Germany, Netherlands, France,
At 0715GMT, the Swiss March retail with tap of the 3.375% 2024 Spain, the ESM, Portugal and Ireland
sales data will be released. SLOVGB223 and1.50% 2018 scheduled to come to the market.
SLOVGB226. Ardal, the Slovakian
The Bundesbank May Monthly report debt and liquidity management Germany is first to the market on
is due for publication at 1000GMT. agency has estimated the supposed Monday with new 12-month May 18,
transaction value at E100mln each 2016 Bubillfor E1.5bln.
Across the Atlantic, the May NY Fed issue.
Business Leaders Survey will be The Netherlands tap 3-month Jul,
published at1230GMT. Also on Monday, Belgium taps 2015 DTC for E1-E2bln and issue
4.25% Sep 2021 OLO61, 10-year new 6-month Oct30, 2015 DTC for
Back in Europe, the ECB will call for benchmark 0.80% June2025 OLO74 E1-E2bln.
bids on Tuesday's 7-day Main Repo and 15-year benchmark 5.50% Mar
Operation at 1335GMT, followed by 2028 OLO31 for between E2bln- In the afternoon France tap 3-month
announcing the latest QE bond E2.8blnindicative size Aug 12 2015 BTF for E2.6-E3.0bln,
buying details at 1345GMT. 6-monthOct 28 2015 BTF for E1.2-
In terms of reinvestment flows, there E1.6bln and 12-month Apr 27, 2016
are no redemption payments, with BTF for E1.0-E1.4bln.
coupon payments from Austria
Global Economic Trading Calendar
Markets
FOREX: The US dollar marked S&P 500 up 2 pts at 2,122.73. This is JAPAN STOCKS: Japanese stocks
decent gains in early trade this a new record high close for the S&P. have posted modest gains during
morning, after reported comments The index today saw an intraday Monday's morning session supported
from a RBA official weighed on the high of 2,123.89 and came within by yen weakness. Also aiding the
aussie while the yen also slipped on striking distance of the record market has been share buybacks
flows mostly related to the Tokyo fix intraday high of 2,125.92, seen April from Mitsubishi UFJ and Dai-chi life.
this morning. Aussie-dollar was last 27. At the close, the S&P 500 was up The Nikkei has closed for lunch up
at $0.8007, near the low end of a 3.1% ytd. On April 27, the Nasdaq 0.43% or 84.20 points at 19,817.12,
$0.8004 to $0.8054 range for the posted a new 15-year-plus high of while the Topix is up 0.68% or 10.91
day. The aussie fell after comments 5,119.828, which was very close to points at 1,618.02.
from the RBA's Lowe during a Q&A the life-time high of 5,132.520, seen
session. Dollar-yen meanwhile was March 10, 2000. The DJIA posted a
last at Y119.71, near the top of a new life-time high of 18,288.63 on *PRECIOUS METALS: Just over an
Y119.24 to Y119.71 range. Euro- March 2. In overseas markets, the hour after Shanghai open to
dollar was last at $1.1428, after a German DAX closed down 0.98% at commence the week in the Far East
relatively narrow $1.1419 to $1.1451 11,447.03, after trading in a and the metals have seen steady
range this morning, and mainly 11,383.23 to 11,632.36 range. At offering throughout much of the
taking cues from other major FX Friday's close, the DAX was down session - from the CME & TOCOM
pairs today. 7.6% from the record high of opens through to the present
12,390.75, posted April 10, and up moment. There was a stop loss spike
US INDEX FUTURES: US stock 16.7% ytd. in silver through $17.60 (SIN5) which
index futures are trading lower during took the metal to a high of $17.76
Monday's Asian session, with US TSYS: Cash treasuries have (SIN5) before it immediately
regional markets providing little seen reported real-money buying in reversed.
impetus. Currently, the June e-mini 5's and 30's at the session lows, with
S&P futures are trading down 3.00 the market firming, seeing 10yr OIL: WTI crude oil futures for Jul'15
points at 2,116.00, the June e-mini yields back below the 2.15% level. delivery last up $0.04 at $60.58 per
Nasdaq futures are trading down Volumes remain light with around barrel, after a $60.55 to $60.78
6.25 points at 4482.15, while the ~1.8bln trading, while futures are range in Asia today, on little volume
June e-mini Dow futures are trading down 1.5-ticks on reasonable with much of the Asian markets
down 17 points at 18,212. volumes of around ~32 having a quiet day. Some signs over
the weekend that the cutbacks to US
US STOCKS CLOSE: US stocks oil rigs is slowing has rallies being
saw subdued trading action Friday. sold into, but as yet the $60 mark
The DJIA closed up 20 pts at seems to be a magnet and traders
18,272.56, the Nasdaq Composite will be looking towards the DOE
down 3 pts at 5,048.292 and the inventory data again as a guide for
future direction..
Technical Analysis
BUND: (M15) O/S Daily Studies Correcting
*RES 4: 156.42 Low Apr 30 now resistance
*RES 3: 155.46 Low May 4 now resistance
*RES 2: 155.03 High May 11
*RES 1: 154.16 High May 13
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 153.57
*SUP 1: 153.01 Low May 15
*SUP 2: 151.97 Low May 13
*SUP 3: 151.44 2015 Low May 7
*SUP 4: 151.01 Low Dec 4
*COMMENTARY: The recovery from last week’s low is
providing bulls with some comfort when combined with the
failure to retest recent 2015 lows combined with correcting
O/S daily studies. Bulls continue to look for a close above
initial resistance at 154.16 to confirm an easing of bearish
pressure whereas a close above 155.03 is needed to shift
focus back to 156.42-157.63 where key DMAs are located.
Bears now need a close below 153.01 to reconfirm bearish
focus on 151.01-97.
EUROSTOXX: Pulls Back From 21-DMA
*RES 4: 3775.1 Bollinger band top
*RES 3: 3706.7 Falling daily trend line
*RES 2: 3669.9 55-DMA
*RES 1: 3640.6 21-DMA
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3573.1
*SUP 1: 3510.0 100-DMA
*SUP 2: 3508.4 21-WMA
*SUP 3: 3506.1 Bollinger band base
*SUP 4: 3439.2 Low Feb 19
*COMMENTARY: Bulls were unable to capitalise on the 2nd
bounce this month from around the 100-DMA with the 21-
WMA and Bollinger band base also clustered tightly around
this level. The pullback from ahead of the 21-DMA Friday
ensures pressure remains on the 3506.1-3510.0 region with
bears looking for a close below the 21-WMA and 100-DMA
to confirm a shift in overall focus to 3316.3-3321.6 where the
200-DMA is located.
Eurex Futures Market Close
Contact MNI: Clive Tillbrook – European Managing Editor + 44 207 862 7400, clive@marketnews.com MNI Sales - uksales@marketnews.com, nysales@marketnews.com, asiasales@marketnews.com
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