NO RECOVERY WITHOUT RESCUE - R342 BILLION UNUSED - Institute for Economic ...

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Only a third of South Africa’s
                                                                                   rescue package has materialised.

                                                                                  R342
                                                                                   BILLION
                                                                                   UNUSED

 COVID-19 SCORECARD UPDATE – 11 FEBRUARY 2021

NO RECOVERY
WITHOUT RESCUE
 The R500 billion COVID-19 rescue package announced by
 President Ramaphosa in April of 2020 held hope and promise
 for many. It came at the start of a period of serious economic
 devastation. Unfortunately, in addition to the shrinking size of
 the package, there has been a systematic failure to implement
 the rescue measures stipulated. Our estimates show that only
 about a third of the package has been utilised to date.

 This updated rescue package scorecard by the Institute
 for Economic Justice unpacks this slow progress, building
 on an earlier scorecard published in June 2020. Many of
 the promises within the rescue package were not kept
 and millions are suffering as a result. Unfortunately,
 a number of important relief measures have expired
 while South Africans struggled through the second
 wave of the COVID-19 pandemic with less support.

 If the government does not urgently step up and
 provide the rescue and relief required by households,
 small businesses and other vulnerable groups,
 thereFOR
INSTITUTE is ECONOMIC
              no chance
                      JUSTICE of economic recovery.
COVID-19: South Africa’s COVID-19 Rescue Package Scorecard Update – 11 February 2021
P R O T E C T R I G H T S . S E C U R E L I V E L I H O O D S . S U P P O R T B U S I N E S S E S . R E S C U E T H E E C O N O M Y.   1
SCORECARD SUMMARY
                      Providing funds to pay wages
                     While this is one area where money has been spent through                                       C
                     the Temporary Employee Relief Scheme (TERS), the difficulty
                     of accessing this support, the mismanagement of funds by
                     employers, and the halt of the support before the second
                     wave will have negative consequences for jobs.

                      Job creation and protection
                     The Employment Stimulus design is commendable but the allocation
                     of spending has been much lower than promised. Many more jobs
                     are required in the short term, not the medium term. Reallocation                                           D
                     of money towards grants should not count towards job creation.

                      Supporting households and communities
                     The interventions made until October 2020 through social
                     grants (and the Social Relief of Distress (SRD) grant until
                     January) saved lives and reduced hunger, however they                                        D
                     should have been extended. The crisis is not over.

                      Supporting businesses through tax deferments and loans
                     There has been disastrous underspending in this area
                     with only 12% of the loan guarantee spent.                                              F
                      Providing additional health and municipal funding
                     There has been a lack of transparency on expenditure and
                     significant gaps remain in access to sanitation and health support.
                                                                                                                             F
         The R500 billion relief package has failed in important respects and should
         be re-launched with a clear plan on how the remaining funds will be spent,
               and where necessary, new measures introduced to fill the gaps.

 RELIEF AREAS                                                  PROMISED                                  USED1
 Social security                                                      R50 billion                   R43.6 billion                      A THIRD
                                                                                                                                        SPENT
 Job creation and protection                                        R100 billion                    R12.6 billion

                                                                                                                                       ?
 Wage relief (TERS)                                                   R40 billion                    R55.6 billion

 Credit guarantee scheme                                            R200 billion                      R18 billion

 Tax relief                                                           R70 billion                   R15.3 billion                      ?
 Municipalities                                                       R20 billion                    R0.2 billion
                                                                                                                                       ?
                                                                                                                                       ?
 Health                                                               R20 billion                   R12.5 billion

                                                                  R500 billion                     R158 billion

1. Data compiled from latest publicly available information as outlined in the below detailed table.
                                                                                                                                       ?

INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMIC JUSTICE
COVID-19: South Africa’s COVID-19 Rescue Package Scorecard Update – 11 February 2021
P R O T E C T R I G H T S . S E C U R E L I V E L I H O O D S . S U P P O R T B U S I N E S S E S . R E S C U E T H E E C O N O M Y.         2
WHAT WAS
          PROMISED AND
           WHERE DID IT                                                                                                                 WHAT IS
           COME FROM?                           CURRENT STATUS                                ASSESSMENT                                NEEDED?

            SOCIAL SECURITY

        R50 billion                         After public pressure, the                The ending of the SRD is                    An extension and
        towards new and                     SRD grant was extended                    likely to cause increases in                increase of the SRD
        existing grants (cut                to 31 January 2021, and                   hunger. Research has found                  grant to at least the
        to R41 billion in                   has since ended. The other                that the combination of                     food poverty line of
        the Supplementary                   grant increases ended on                  the TERS scheme and the                     R585 per person per
        Budget). Only R25                   31 October 2020.                          SRD Grant contributed to                    month.
        billion from new                    In November 2020, 6.9                     the decrease in levels of                   Unduly harsh and
        allocations.                        million beneficiaries                     hunger between May and                      narrow criteria for
                                            of the SRD grant were                     August of 2020. Researchers                 accessing the grant
        1. Social Relief of                                                          estimated that ending the
            Distress (SRD) grant            approved and paid. By end                                                             need to be reassessed.
                                            November a total of R13.5                 SRD and Caregivers grant
            - R350 per month                                                          alone would plunge 5.8                      Inclusion of caregivers
            (May - October                  billion rand had been spent                                                           for the SRD Grant
                                            on the grant                              million people into hunger.
            2020).                                                                                                                regardless of whether
        2. Caregivers top-up               As of October 2020,                       The end of the Caregivers                   they are receiving a
            grant - R300 in May             there were more than                      top up grant has been                       child support grant on
            2020, R500 per                  7 million beneficiaries of                particularly devastating                    behalf of their children.
            month thereafter                the caregivers grant.                     to women who
                                                                                      overwhelmingly provide                      Urgent progress
            (until October
                                            As of 30 September 2020,                  care to children in South                   towards
            2020).
                                            76% of the R41 billion had                Africa, and benefit less from               implementation of the
        3. All other grants -
                                            been spent.                               other relief measures such                  long overdue Universal
            increase of R250
                                                                                      as SRD and TERS.                            Basic Income Guarantee
            per month (May -
                                                                                                                                  (Grant) for those aged
            October 2020).
                                                                                                                                  18 to 59 years.

            JOB CREATION AND PROTECTION

        R100 billion                        Ongoing; aims to be a                     Given the number of jobs                    The full R100 billion
        to job protection and               3-year programme.                         lost during 2020, and the                   must be allocated to
        creation schemes.                   Only R6.1 billion was                     role of unemployment in                     immediate emergency
                                            allocated from this in the                poverty and hunger, it is                   relief spending and a
                                            2020 MTBPS towards small                  unacceptable that so little                 plan on its use should
                                            and informal business                     of this relief package has                  be urgently tabled.
                                            support, and job creation                 been spent thus far.                        The full Public
                                            and protection.                           The Public Employment                       Employment
                                            Treasury claims the October               Stimulus, part of this                      Stimulus should
                                            amounts of R12.6 billion and              broader programme, is                       be implemented,
                                            R7 billion allocated to Public            intended to provide 700                     including the
                                            Employment Stimulus and                   000 opportunities across 11                 social employment
                                            extending the SRD grant,                  departments.                                programme and a
                                            respectively, come from                   As of January 2021,                         Youth Service.
                                            this fund. However, it is not             a reported 433 167                          The use of the R100
                                            clear that this is the case               opportunities have been                     billion must include
                                            and these funds may come                  created.                                    new industrial policy
                                            from the reprioritisation of              Thousands of teaching                       measures to assist
                                            existing expenditure.                     assistants in this programme                in the targeting of
                                                                                      were not paid in Kwa-Zulu                   labour intensive
                                                                                      Natal.                                      industries.

INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMIC JUSTICE
COVID-19: South Africa’s COVID-19 Rescue Package Scorecard Update – 11 February 2021
P R O T E C T R I G H T S . S E C U R E L I V E L I H O O D S . S U P P O R T B U S I N E S S E S . R E S C U E T H E E C O N O M Y.                          3
WHAT WAS
          PROMISED AND
           WHERE DID IT                                                                                                                 WHAT IS
           COME FROM?                           CURRENT STATUS                                ASSESSMENT                                NEEDED?

            WAGE RELIEF (TERS)

        R40 billion                         The TERS scheme was                       The TERS system was in
                                                                                      many cases difficult to access
                                                                                                                                  Extension of the TERS
        to pay wages and                    ended unilaterally (without                                                           scheme.
                                            employer and union                        for formal business. It was
        avoid job and income                                                                                                      Improve
                                            consent) in October 2020.                 even more inaccessible
        losses, financed                                                              for informal workers and                    administration and
        from Unemployment                   TERS applications for the                                                             reduce delays.
                                            period up to October 2020                 undocumented migrants,
        Insurance Fund                                                                those most vulnerable to
                                            closed on 31 December                                                                 Increase the level of
        surpluses.                                                                    job loss. The amount paid
                                            2020.                                                                                 compensation.
                                                                                      out, dictated according
                                            According to the Dept. of                 to a sliding scale, was                     Launch investigations
                                            Employment and Labour,                    untransparently applied and                 into reports of
                                            R55.6 billion was paid                    too low to compensate for                   corruption, and
                                            out by mid-December                       the full income lost.                       payback for those
                                            to 1.1 million applicants                 The end of this programme,                  short-changed.
                                            (employers). However, how                 shortly before the second
                                            many workers benefited is                 wave of COVID-19 hit South
                                            unclear.                                  Africa, means that many of
                                                                                      those who have permanently
                                                                                      lost their jobs or have been
                                                                                      temporarily unable to work
                                                                                      due to Level 3, especially
                                                                                      those in the hospitality
                                                                                      industry, were left without
                                                                                      support.
                                                                                      Despite the amount of
                                                                                      money paid out, and the
                                                                                      reportedly high beneficiary
                                                                                      figures, there have been
                                                                                      numerous reports of
                                                                                      employers not paying
                                                                                      employees and high levels of
                                                                                      corruption within the system.

            CREDIT GUARANTEE SCHEME

        R200 billion                        Remains in place.                         This scheme has largely
                                                                                      failed. Businesses have
                                                                                                                                  Set up a business
        to provide loans to                 By 16 January 2021, only                                                              rescue fund to provide
                                                                                      accessed less than 10% of the               bailouts and grants, as
        business, substantially             R18 billion in loans had                  available amount.                           loans are not always
        guaranteed by                       been given. Of the 48 366
        government.                                                                   Heavily indebted firms have                 appropriate.
                                            applications, only 27%
                                                                                      been reluctant to accumulate
                                            were approved and paid                                                                Reduce eligibility
                                                                                      more debt but early in the
                                            out.                                      programme banks also used                   criteria to improve
                                                                                      traditional credit-worthiness               uptake.
                                                                                      checks. These checks should                 Outreach strategy to
                                                                                      not apply to applicants as                  promote access.
                                                                                      a requirement for the loan
                                                                                      is that the business should                 Rework the terms of
                                                                                      be in financial distress.                   the scheme to remove
                                                                                      While some changes to the                   restrictions on use of
                                                                                      requirements were made                      proceeds and improve
                                                                                      in July 2020, the scheme                    terms of repayment.
                                                                                      remains inaccessible and the
                                                                                      support it can be provide is                Capitalise
                                                                                      limited.                                    development finance
                                                                                                                                  institutions to
                                                                                      Administrative issues have
                                                                                      also led to delays and made                 rapidly scale up their
                                                                                      it very difficult for small                 financing.
                                                                                      businesses to access these
                                                                                      funds.

INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMIC JUSTICE
COVID-19: South Africa’s COVID-19 Rescue Package Scorecard Update – 11 February 2021
P R O T E C T R I G H T S . S E C U R E L I V E L I H O O D S . S U P P O R T B U S I N E S S E S . R E S C U E T H E E C O N O M Y.                        4
WHAT WAS
          PROMISED AND
           WHERE DID IT                                                                                                                WHAT IS
           COME FROM?                           CURRENT STATUS                                ASSESSMENT                               NEEDED?

            TAX RELIEF

        R70 billion                         All tax relief measures have              There is little reporting                   Extend tax relief
        in tax deferments,                  now come to an end.                       and data on the efficacy                    measures for small
        including:                          There is limited data about               and uptake of these                         businesses and
                                            uptake. In April and May,                 programmes. However it                      employees. These
        1. Four-month                                                                would be appear that most                   businesses are trying
                                            16 000 firms used the PAYE
            holiday from skills                                                       businesses, particularly                    to re-open and cash
                                            deferral option, with the
            development levy                                                          SMMEs, have not made use                    flow remains a serious
                                            total relief estimated at
            contributions;                                                            of the programmes.                          constraint.
                                            R750 million.
        2. Fast tracking VAT
            refunds;                        The skills development levy               In some cases, conditions,                  Make certain forms of
        3. Three-month delay               holiday of four months                    such as not having any tax                  relief automatic for
            for filing and the              from May 2020 cost about                  debt, would exclude many                    small businesses.
            first payment of                R6 billion.                               of the most vulnerable                      Develop tax relief
            carbon tax;                     Only 434 small, medium                    small businesses. For the                   measures for
        4. Increase of PAYE                and micro-enterprise                      programmes that required                    households.
            deferral to 35%;                (SMME) vendors made use                   an application, it is likely
                                                                                      that businesses with in-                    Additional tax revenue
        5.Expansion of the                 of filing VAT returns on
                                                                                      house finance teams were                    must be raised
          employment tax                    a more frequent basis to
                                                                                      able to benefit, while                      through increasing
          incentive; and                    access VAT refunds sooner.
                                                                                      smaller businesses would be                 taxes on the wealthy
        6. Deferrals in the                Deferrals in the payment                  left behind.                                and high-income
            payment of excise               of excise duty on alcoholic                                                           earners.
            duties on alcohol               beverages and tobacco
            and tobacco                     products and the fuel levy
            products and the                amounted to R7.5 billion
            fuel levy                       by July 2020.
        The total cost to the               R1 billion was also paid
        fiscus is estimated at              out for relief on a “case-
        R26 billion.                        by-case” basis for 167
                                            applications.

            MUNICIPALITIES

        R20 billion                         Remains in place. As of 30                There is a lack of                          The rapid scaling up of
        to support                          September 2020, only 1%                   transparency around                         emergency measures
        municipalities in                   of this money had been                    municipal funding so it                     to provide water and
        providing proper                    spent.                                    is unclear whether these                    sanitation.
        water and sanitation,                                                         funds have in fact been                     A system of
        sanitary public                                                               allocated to municipalities                 transparency for how
        transport, food                                                               and whether and how                         money has been spent
        provision, and                                                                municipalities have spent                   and will be spent in
        accommodation for                                                             them.                                       future.
        the homeless.                                                                 Lack of sanitation                          A model instituted
        Financed from a R11                                                           and water provision                         whereby poorer
        billion increase in                                                           remain endemic to poor                      municipalities receive
        local government                                                              communities, particularly in                necessary funding.
        funding, and a R9                                                             rural areas.
        billion reprioritisation
        of existing municipal
        budget expenditure.

INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMIC JUSTICE
COVID-19: South Africa’s COVID-19 Rescue Package Scorecard Update – 11 February 2021
P R O T E C T R I G H T S . S E C U R E L I V E L I H O O D S . S U P P O R T B U S I N E S S E S . R E S C U E T H E E C O N O M Y.                        5
WHAT WAS
          PROMISED AND
           WHERE DID IT                                                                                                                 WHAT IS
           COME FROM?                           CURRENT STATUS                                ASSESSMENT                                NEEDED?

            HEALTH

        R20 billion                         Remains in place. As of 30                Ongoing COVID-19 health                     Adequately funding
        (revised to R21.5                   September 2020, 58% of                    spending will be required                   the vaccination
        billion in the                      the R21.5 billion had been                throughout 2021/22,                         programme is
        Supplementary                       spent.                                    including between peaks.                    essential and the
        Budget). The net                    However, a recent report                  National Treasury has not                   costing plan must
        increase to the health              suggests that a significant               made public plans for                       urgently be made
        budget was R2.9                     proportion of this was lost               funding of the vaccine                      available publicly.
        billion.                            in corruption associated                  programme. Estimates of                     Further transparency
                                            with the procurement                      the cost range between                      is required for the
                                            of PPE, as well as other                  R12 billion and R20 billion,                vaccine programme
                                            medical services and                      which is a small amount,                    processes and logistics.
                                            products.                                 given the anticipated                       Continued lobbying
                                                                                      benefits of the vaccines.                   for a waiver of
                                                                                      Treasury’s reported                         Intellectual Property
                                                                                      reluctance to fund this                     rights on COVID-19
                                                                                      programme is therefore                      vaccines and
                                                                                      odd.                                        medication.
                                                                                                                                  Increased investment
                                                                                                                                  in local medical
                                                                                                                                  manufacturing
                                                                                                                                  capacity.
                                                                                                                                  Continued testing and
                                                                                                                                  quarantining capacity.
                                                                                                                                  Filling of vacant
                                                                                                                                  posts and increasing
                                                                                                                                  hiring to cover sick
                                                                                                                                  and overworked
                                                                                                                                  healthcare workers.
                                                                                                                                  Improvement of
                                                                                                                                  health care facilities.

          The government’s rescue package has failed South
          African citizens. Urgent action is required to support
          incomes, give relief to destitute households, advance
          access to healthcare and sanitation, rescue businesses
          and prevent further economic and social collapse.

INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMIC JUSTICE
COVID-19: South Africa’s COVID-19 Rescue Package Scorecard Update – 11 February 2021
P R O T E C T R I G H T S . S E C U R E L I V E L I H O O D S . S U P P O R T B U S I N E S S E S . R E S C U E T H E E C O N O M Y.                         6
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SOCIAL SECURITY                                                                      CREDIT GUARANTEE SCHEME
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Casale-D.-_-Shepherd-D..-2020-The-gendered-effects-of-                               update/
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Africa-Evidence-from-NIDS-CRAM-Waves-1-and-2.pdf                                     and-africa/a-credit-lifeline-how-banks-can-serve-smes-in-
https://c19peoplescoalition.org.za/joint-statement-                                  south-africa-better#
extend-the-grants/                                                                   https://www.intellidex.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/
https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2021-02-02-time-                             Intellidex-Reform-of-bank-guaranteed-Covid-19-loan-
to-give-government-must-increase-and-extend-not-                                     scheme.pdf
terminate-its-social-relief-grant/                                                   https://www.polity.org.za/article/all-that-glitters-is-not-
https://www.sanews.gov.za/south-africa/r135bn-                                       gold-the-slow-uptake-of-the-covid-19-loan-guarantee-
distributed-social-relief                                                            scheme-in-south-africa-2020-09-16
https://theconversation.com/south-africas-covid-19-
hunger-relief-efforts-are-working-why-they-must-
continue-147698                                                                      TAX RELIEF
https://www.iej.org.za/the-case-for-extending-the-covid-                             https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/national/2020-07-14-
19-special-grants/                                                                   treasury-ponders-extending-covid-19-tax-relief-measures/
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special%20report%20on%20financial%20                                                 https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/economy/2021-02-
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                                                                                     https://www.businessinsider.co.za/the-state-of-south-
JOB CREATION AND                                                                     african-government-finances-2021-2

PROTECTION
http://www.thepresidency.gov.za/download/file/fid/1910
                                                                                     MUNICIPALITIES
                                                                                     https://static.pmg.org.za/200901SCoA_-_NT_
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                                                                                     presentation_-_1Q2020-21_presentation_consolidated.
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assistants-not-paid-december-salaries-fad246f6-a7ec-                                 management%20of%20government’s%20Covid19%20
437a-8ab1-7a84efc747d1                                                               inititatives%20-%20FINAL%20PDF%20(interactive).pdf

WAGE RELIEF                                                                          HEALTH
https://www.timeslive.co.za/news/south-africa/2021-02-                               http://www.treasury.gov.za/documents/National%20
01-see-which-employers-were-reported-by-workers-over-                                Budget/2020S/review/Chapter%202.pdf
uif-ters-payments/
                                                                                     https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2021-02-03-
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documents/publication/wcms_754443.pdf                                                wto-idUSKBN29O2DF
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4c8885b68b10                                                                         special%20report%20on%20financial%20
                                                                                     management%20of%20government’s%20Covid19%20
                                                                                     inititatives%20-%20FINAL%20PDF%20(interactive).pdf

INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMIC JUSTICE
COVID-19: South Africa’s COVID-19 Rescue Package Scorecard Update – 11 February 2021
P R O T E C T R I G H T S . S E C U R E L I V E L I H O O D S . S U P P O R T B U S I N E S S E S . R E S C U E T H E E C O N O M Y.               7
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