COVID-19 Update: Key Statistics - August 11, 2020 - SOA.org
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. COVID-19 Update: Key Statistics August 11, 2020
2
COVID-19 Update: Key Statistics
August 11, 2020
AUTHOR Lisa A. Schilling, FSA, EA, FCA, MAAA
REVIEWERS R. Dale Hall, FSA, MAAA, CERA, CFA
J. Patrick Wiese, ASA
Caveat and Disclaimer
This study is published by the Society of Actuaries (SOA) and contains information from a variety of sources. The study is for informational purposes only
and should not be construed as professional or financial advice. The SOA does not recommend or endorse any use of the information provided in this
study. The SOA makes no warranty, express or implied, or representation whatsoever and assumes no liability in connection with the use or misuse of this
study.
Copyright © 2020 by the Society of Actuaries. All rights reserved.
Copyright © 2020 Society of Actuaries3
Contents
Introduction.............................................................................................................................................................. 4
Reported Cases ......................................................................................................................................................... 4
Worldwide Cases............................................................................................................................................................ 4
U.S. Cases ....................................................................................................................................................................... 7
Canadian Cases ............................................................................................................................................................ 10
Reported Deaths ..................................................................................................................................................... 11
Worldwide Deaths ....................................................................................................................................................... 11
U.S. Deaths ................................................................................................................................................................... 14
Canadian Deaths .......................................................................................................................................................... 16
Cases Per Million Compared to Deaths Per Million.................................................................................................. 18
Worldwide Cases Per Million Compared to Deaths Per Million ................................................................................ 18
U.S. Cases Per Million Compared to Deaths Per Million ............................................................................................ 20
Canadian Cases Per Million Compared to Deaths Per Million ................................................................................... 21
About The Society of Actuaries ............................................................................................................................... 22
Copyright © 2020 Society of Actuaries4
COVID-19 Update: Key Statistics
August 11, 2020
Introduction
The COVID-19 pandemic that began in December 2019 continues. Some parts of the world that experienced
significant numbers of cases in the winter and spring have brought SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus that causes COVID-
19, under control. Other parts of the world have begun to experience the pandemic only more recently. Elsewhere,
the coronavirus continues to spread at a significant pace, such as in the U.S., where cases appeared in February and
significant numbers of cases were first recorded in March.
The Society of Actuaries (SOA) published its first COVID-19 research brief on March 10, 2020, followed by regular
updates and expansions through June 12, 2020. The comprehensive report includes a section of Key Statistics. On
July 24, 2020, the SOA released a report showing updates through July 22 to selected graphs from or related to the
Key Statistics section of the comprehensive report. This report provides similar updates through August 9, 2020.
Reported Cases
Confirmed cases are a function of the ability for any public health agency across countries to distribute, administer
and collect test results from their respective health systems. It is important to recognize that the number of
reported confirmed cases for any disease is typically fewer than the number of actual cases because of delays in full
testing and reporting, as well as cases that have gone undiagnosed.
WORLDWIDE CASES
After a brief plateau from mid-April to mid-May, new reported confirmed COVID-19 cases rose steeply until the start
of August. For the first nine days of August, daily new reported confirmed cases appear to have leveled off (Figure
1). Through August 9, 2020, 19.8 million cases had been reported worldwide. Since the start of the pandemic, the
continental location of cases has shifted (Figure 2). Through most of February, daily new reported cases were largely
contained in Asia. By mid-March, more daily new reported cases were from Europe than any other continent. By
late March, Europe and North America shared roughly 85% of the daily new reported cases, relatively few new
reported cases came from Asia, and a relatively small number of new cases began to be reported from Africa and
South and Central Americas.
At the end of June, about 60% of daily new reported COVID-19 cases were coming from North, South and Central
Americas. New cases in Asia had risen to approximately 20% of the world’s daily reported new cases, and roughly
5% of the daily reported new cases were attributable to Africa.
Through August 9, 2020, the U.S. had reported 25% of total cumulative worldwide cases, and Brazil had reported
15% of them (Figure 3). Of the 15 countries with the greatest number of cases, 13 of them have reported more than
half of their cases since the start of June, and 8 of the top 15 have reported 70% or more of their cases since the
start of June.
Copyright © 2020 Society of Actuaries5
Figure 1
WORLDWIDE REPORTED CONFIRMED DAILY NEW COVID-19 CASES BY CONTINENT, AUGUST 9, 2020
300,000
250,000
Oceania
Africa
200,000
South America
150,000 North & Central
7-Day Moving
Average America
Europe
100,000
Asia
50,000
0
Mar-01
Mar-15
May-01
May-15
Jul-01
Jul-15
Apr-01
Apr-15
Jun-01
Jun-15
Aug-01
Aug-09
Data source: Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource Center https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html and authors’ calculations.
Figure 2
PERCENTAGE OF WORLDWIDE DAILY REPORTED NEW COVID-19 DEATHS BY CONTINENT, AUGUST 9, 2020
100%
Oceania
90%
80%
Africa
70%
60% South America
50%
North & Central
40%
America
30%
Europe
20%
10% Asia
0%
Mar-01
Mar-15
May-01
May-15
Jul-01
Jul-15
Apr-01
Apr-15
Jun-01
Jun-15
Aug-01
Aug-09
Data source: Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource Center https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html and authors’ calculations.
Copyright © 2020 Society of Actuaries6
Figure 3
TOP 15 COUNTRIES FOR NUMBER OF REPORTED CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES, AUGUST 9. 2020
Number of Confirmed COVID-19 Cases Reported During Period Ending...
31-Mar 30-Apr 31-May 30-Jun 31-Jul 9-Aug % of World
U.S. 25.4%
Brazil 15.3%
India 11.2%
Russia 4.5%
South Africa 2.8%
Mexico 2.4%
Peru 2.4%
Colombia 2.0%
Chile 1.9%
Iran 1.6%
Spain 1.6%
U.K. 1.6%
Saudi Arabia 1.5%
Pakistan 1.4%
Bangladesh 1.3%
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5
Millions
Data source: Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource Center https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html and authors’ calculations.
Because population sizes differ across countries, considering the number of cases per million may be more insightful
than examining the number of cases (Figure 4). Although Canada is not among the 15 countries with the greatest
number of cases per million, Canada appears in the graph as a point of reference. While the U.S. ranks first in the
number of cases, it ranks seventh in the number of cases per million, up from eighth place on July 22, 2020. Qatar
continues to rank first in number of cases per million of population, far outpacing second place Bahrain and third
place Chile.
Figure 4
TOP 15 COUNTRIES FOR NUMBER OF REPORTED CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES PER MILLION, AUGUST 9, 2020
Number of Confirmed COVID-19 Cases per Million Reported During Period Ending...
30-Apr 31-May 30-Jun 31-Jul 9-Aug Total CPM
Qatar 39,086
Bahrain 24,971
Chile 18,767
Panama 15,367
Kuwait 15,915
Oman 15,911
U.S. 13,848
Peru 12,534
Brazil 12,615
Armenia 13,034
Israel 8,330
South Africa 8,422
Singapore 8,994
Saudi Arabia 8,051
Sweden 8,013
Canada 3,161
0 10 20 30 40 50
Thousands
Data source: Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource Center https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html and authors’ calculations.
Copyright © 2020 Society of Actuaries7
U.S. CASES
In the U.S., new reported confirmed COVID-19 cases initially peaked in early April 2020 and slowly declined before
increasing again in later April (Figure 5); states are identified with corresponding colors by region in Figure 6. New
cases generally declined slowly from late April until June 11, when they began an incline through mid July that was
nearly as steep as the initial increase in new cases from mid-March through early April. Since late July, the daily
number of new reported COVID-19 cases has generally declined but remains far above the peak levels in the spring.
As of August 9, 2020, the U.S. has reported a total of 5.04 million cases; the 7-day rolling average of daily new cases
is 53,813, which is 70% greater than its April 10 level of 31,628, which was the greatest level prior to June 24.
Figure 5
U.S. DAILY REPORTED CONFIRMED NEW COVID-19 CASES BY REGION, AUGUST 9, 2020
90,000
80,000
70,000
Mountain
60,000 West
Southeast
50,000
7-Day Moving Southwest
40,000 Average
Midwest
30,000
20,000 Northeast
10,000 Pacific
0
Mar-15
Mar-22
Mar-29
May-03
May-10
May-17
May-24
May-31
Jul-05
Jul-12
Jul-19
Jul-26
Apr-05
Apr-12
Apr-19
Apr-26
Jun-07
Jun-14
Jun-21
Jun-28
Aug-02
Aug-09
Data source: Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource Center https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html and authors’ calculations.
The regional location of new Figure 6
reported confirmed COVID-19 U.S. REGIONS
cases has clearly shifted since
March 1, as is especially apparent
in Figure 7. At the start of March, Northeast
daily new reported confirmed
cases were reported primarily Pacific Mountain
from Pacific states. By March 19, West Midwest
the Northeast dominated daily
new reported confirmed cases of
COVID-19. Since mid June, roughly
60% of daily new cases have been Southwest Southeast
attributable to Southeastern and
Southwestern state; since mid-
July, about 30% of daily new cases
have been reported from Pacific
and Midwestern states.
Copyright © 2020 Society of Actuaries8
Figure 7
PROPORTION OF U.S. DAILY REPORTED CONFIRMED NEW COVID-19 CASES BY REGION, AUGUST 9, 2020
100%
90%
80% Mountain West
70%
Southeast
60%
Southwest
50%
Midwest
40%
30% Northeast
20% Pacific
10%
0%
Mar-15
Mar-22
Mar-29
May-03
May-10
May-17
May-24
May-31
Jul-05
Jul-12
Jul-19
Jul-26
Apr-05
Apr-12
Apr-19
Apr-26
Jun-07
Jun-14
Jun-21
Jun-28
Aug-02
Aug-09
Data source: Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource Center https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html and authors’ calculations.
Through the spring, New York reported confirmed COVID-19 cases than any other state. Now California, Florida and
Texas all report more cases than New York (Figure 8), and these three states have also reported the greatest
increase in number of cases (Figure 9) since June 1. However, since mid-July, Louisiana, Arizona, Florida and
Mississippi have reported more cases per million than New Jersey (Figure 10), which had previously led the nation in
number of cases relative to state population.
Figure 8
TOP 15 STATES FOR NUMBER OF REPORTED CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES, AUGUST 9, 2020
Number of Confirmed COVID-19 Cases Reported During Period Ending...
31-Mar 30-Apr 31-May 30-Jun 31-Jul 9-Aug % of U.S.
California 11.1%
Florida 10.6%
Texas 10.0%
New York 8.3%
Georgia 4.3%
Illinois 3.9%
Arizona 3.7%
New Jersey 3.7%
North Carolina 2.7%
Louisiana 2.6%
Pennsylvania 2.4%
Tennessee 2.4%
Massachusetts 2.4%
Alabama 2.0%
Ohio 2.0%
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Thousands
Data source: Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource Center https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html and authors’ calculations.
Copyright © 2020 Society of Actuaries9
Figure 9
STATES WITH THE MOST REPORTED CONFIRMED COVID-19 NEW CASES, JUNE 1, 2020–AUGUST 9, 2020
Thousands
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Florida 475,976 838%
California 445,013 388%
Texas 437,735 667%
Georgia 168,694 352%
Arizona Number of New Cases
166,794 829%
Since June 1, 2020
North Carolina 106,754 361%
Tennessee 100,146 444% Percent Increase in Number
Louisiana 91,058 226% of Cases Since June 1, 2020
South Carolina 88,287 727%
Alabama 82,704 444%
Illinois 74,146 61%
Ohio 64,864 180%
Virginia 54,688 120%
Mississippi 51,421 326%
New York 49,149 13%
Data source: Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource Center https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html and authors’ calculations.
Figure 10
TOP 15 STATES FOR NUMBER OF REPORTED CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES PER MILLION, AUGUST 9, 2020
Number of Confirmed COVID-19 Cases Per Million Reported During Period Ending...
31-Mar 30-Apr 31-May 30-Jun 31-Jul 9-Aug Total CPM
U.S. 15,313
Louisiana 28,265
Arizona 25,681
Florida 24,807
Mississippi 22,570
New Jersey 20,803
Alabama 20,667
Georgia 20,400
South Carolina 19,507
Rhode Island 18,632
Nevada 18,256
D.C. 18,070
Tennessee 17,969
New York 17,812
Massachusetts 17,561
Texas 17,359
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Thousands
Data source: Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource Center https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html and authors’ calculations.
Copyright © 2020 Society of Actuaries10
CANADIAN CASES
In Canada, the number of daily new reported confirmed COVID-19 cases fell steadily from early May through June,
slowly rose through July before slowly declining again (Figure 11). Quebec continues to show more than double the
number of reported confirmed COVID-19 cases per million than the respective number for Canada as a whole
(Figure 12).
Figure 11
CANADIAN REPORTED CONFIRMED NEW COVID-19 CASES, AUGUST 9, 2020
3,000
2,500
2,000
7-Day Moving Average
1,500
1,000
500 Daily Reported Confirmed New
COVID-19 Cases
0
Mar-01
Mar-08
Mar-15
Mar-22
Mar-29
May-03
May-10
May-17
May-24
May-31
Jul-05
Jul-12
Jul-19
Jul-26
Apr-05
Apr-12
Apr-19
Apr-26
Jun-07
Jun-14
Jun-21
Jun-28
Aug-02
Aug-09
Data source: Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource Center https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html and authors’ calculations.
Figure 12
NUMBER OF REPORTED CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES PER MILLION BY PROVINCE, AUGUST 9, 2020
Number of Confirmed COVID-19 Cases Per Million Reported During Period Ending...
31-Mar 30-Apr 31-May 30-Jun 31-Jul 9-Aug Total CPM
Canada 3,244
Quebec 7,171
Ontario 2,905
Alberta 2,630
Saskatchewan 1,237
Nova Scotia 1,109
British Columbia 784
Newfoundland and Labrador 510
Manitoba 398
Prince Edward Island 233
New Brunswick 228
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Thousands
Data source: Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource Center https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html and authors’ calculations.
Copyright © 2020 Society of Actuaries11
Reported Deaths
WORLDWIDE DEATHS
Through August 9, 2020, approximately 534,000 deaths due to COVID-19 had been reported worldwide. While the
number of daily reported new COVID-19 cases has consistently risen since the start of the pandemic, the number of
reported new COVID-19 deaths slowed from mid-April through the end of May before slowly rising again (Figure 13).
In addition, there has been a clear shift in the concentrations of deaths by continent. Through April, most deaths
occurred in Europe and North America. Since late April, new deaths in Europe have steadily declined while new
deaths in North and Central America have declined only somewhat. However, daily new deaths from South America
have increased steadily since late April, and daily deaths in Asia have steadily increased since the start of June.
Figure 13
WORLDWIDE DAILY REPORTED NEW COVID-19 DEATHS BY CONTINENT, AUGUST 9, 2020
12,000
10,000
8,000 7-Day Moving Oceania
Average
Africa
6,000
South America
4,000 North & Central
America
Europe
2,000
Asia
0
Mar-01
Mar-15
May-01
May-15
Jul-01
Jul-15
Apr-01
Apr-15
Jun-01
Jun-15
Aug-01
Aug-09
Data source: Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource Center https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html and authors’ calculations. The
spike in new deaths on July 23, 2020, reflects Peru’s revised tally of deaths to include deaths that had previously been excluded. 1
The distribution of deaths across continents is more clearly illustrated in Figure 14. While the number of deaths in
very early March was relatively small are not clearly visible in Figure 13, Figure 14 shows that nearly all of them were
in Asia, with a few in Europe. By the end of March, most COVID-29 deaths were occurring in Europe, although
deaths in North America were an increasingly larger proportion of total COVID-19 deaths. By early June, roughly
one-third of COVID-19 deaths were occurring in Asia and Europe, roughly one-third in North and Central America,
and roughly one-third in South America.
1VOA News. (2020, July 23). “Peru’s President Says Thousands of COVID-19 Victims Left Off Death Tally.” https://www.voanews.com/covid-19-
pandemic/perus-president-says-thousands-covid-19-victims-left-death-tally.
Copyright © 2020 Society of Actuaries12
By August 9, 2020, 34% of new deaths occurred in Asia, South America accounted for 33% of new deaths, North
and Central America accounted for 20% of new deaths.
Figure 14
PROPORTION OF DAILY REPORTED NEW COVID-19 DEATHS BY CONTINENT, AUGUST 9, 2020
100%
Oceania
90%
80%
Africa
70%
60% South America
50%
40% North & Central
America
30%
Europe
20%
10%
Asia
0%
Mar-01
Mar-15
May-01
May-15
Jul-01
Jul-15
Apr-01
Apr-15
Jun-01
Jun-15
Aug-01
Aug-09
Data source: Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource Center https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html and authors’ calculations.
Through the same date, roughly half (49.7%) of the reported COVID-19 deaths have occurred in four countries: the
U.S., Brazil, Mexico and the U.K. (Figure 15). Note that since July 22, the number of deaths in Mexico has exceeded
the number in the U.K. Also note that while Canada is not among the 15 countries with the most reported COVID-19
deaths, Canada is included in the graph as a point of reference.
Because population sizes differ by country, considering the number of new deaths per million of population may be
more illuminating than studying numbers of new deaths (Figure 16). While the U.S. ranks first in the number of
deaths through August 9, 2020, it ranks eighth in the number of deaths per million. Belgium ranks first in number of
deaths per million of population, followed by the U.K., Peru and Spain. Canada ranks seventeenth in number of
deaths and twentieth in deaths per million.
Copyright © 2020 Society of Actuaries13
Figure 15
TOP 15 COUNTRIES FOR NUMBER OF REPORTED COVID-19 DEATHS, AUGUST 9. 2020
Number of Confirmed COVID-19 Deaths Reported During Period Ending...
31-Mar 30-Apr 31-May 30-Jun 31-Jul 9-Aug % of World
U.S. 22.3%
Brazil 13.8%
Mexico 7.2%
U.K. 6.4%
India 6.1%
Italy 4.8%
France 4.1%
Spain 3.9%
Peru 2.9%
Iran 2.5%
Russia 2.0%
Colombia 1.8%
South Africa 1.4%
Chile 1.4%
Belgium 1.3%
Canada 1.2%
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180
Thousands
Data source: Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource Center https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html and authors’ calculations.
Figure 16
TOP 16 COUNTRIES FOR NUMBER OF REPORTED CONFIRMED COVID-19 DEATHS PER MILLION, AUGUST 9, 2020
Number of Confirmed COVID-19 Deaths Per Million of Population Reported During Period Ending...
31-Mar 30-Apr 31-May 30-Jun 31-Jul 9-Aug Total DPM
Belgium 856
U.K. 690
Peru 648
Spain 610
Italy 581
Sweden 574
Chile 532
U.S. 495
Brazil 479
France 464
Mexico 410
Panama 386
Ireland 363
Netherlands 360
Ecuador 341
Canada 241
0 200 400 600 800 1,000
Data source: Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource Center https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html and authors’ calculations.
Copyright © 2020 Society of Actuaries14
U.S. DEATHS
The number of reported new daily COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. generally declined from the first week of May
through the first few days of July (Figure 17). One notable exception was June 25, when New Jersey reported 1,854
probable COVID-19 deaths since the start of the pandemic. 2 Prior to that, New Jersey, like other states, had
reported only confirmed cases. Throughout July, daily reported new COVID-19 deaths steadily increased; the trend
seems to have leveled off since then.
Figure 17
U.S. DAILY REPORTED NEW COVID-19 DEATHS BY REGION, AUGUST 9, 2020
3,000
2,500 Mountain
West
Southeast
2,000
Southwest
1,500 7-Day Moving
Average Midwest
1,000 Northeast
Pacific
500
0
Mar-01
Mar-15
May-01
May-15
Jul-01
Jul-15
Apr-01
Apr-15
Jun-01
Jun-15
Aug-01
Aug-09
Data source: Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource Center https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html and authors’ calculations.
As the concentration of COVID-19 cases has shifted across regions, COVID-19 deaths have also shifted, which is
especially apparent in Figure 18. During the first half of March, nearly all U.S. deaths were reported from Pacific
states. Significant numbers of new COVID-19 deaths began regularly occurring in the Northeast in mid-March, with
roughly one-half of deaths from the Northeast, about one-third from Pacific states, and the remainder distributed
across other regions.
In general, more than half of new COVID-19 deaths continued to occur in the Northeast until late May. During that
period, the proportion of new reported COVID-19 deaths in the Midwest grew significantly. And by the end May, the
proportion of new reported deaths from the Southeast had also grown substantially. Through June, the proportions
of deaths occurring in the Northeast generally declined before ticking upward at the end of the month and into July.
Proportions of new COVID-19 deaths attributable to the Midwest generally declined through June and into July.
However, the proportions of new COVID-19 deaths steadily increased through June and July in the Southeast,
Southwest and Pacific. Since mid July, roughly two-thirds of all U.S. COVID-19 deaths have been occurring in the
Southeast and Southwest.
2 Murphy, Governor Phil. (2020, June 25). “Transcript: June 25th, 2020 Coronavirus Briefing Media.” State of New Jersey.
https://www.nj.gov/governor/news/news/562020/20200625a.shtml.
Copyright © 2020 Society of Actuaries15
Figure 18
PROPORTION OF U.S. DAILY REPORTED NEW COVID-19 DEATHS BY REGION, AUGUST 9, 2020
100%
90%
80% Mountain West
70%
Southeast
60%
Southwest
50%
Midwest
40%
30% Northeast
20% Pacific
10%
0%
Mar-01
Mar-15
May-01
May-15
Jul-01
Jul-15
Apr-01
Apr-15
Jun-01
Jun-15
Aug-01
Aug-09
Data source: Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource Center https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html and authors’ calculations.
Several states have surpassed New York and New Jersey in the number of reported confirmed COVID-19 cases, but
New York and New Jersey continue to lead the U.S. in number of COVID-19 deaths, although by decreasing margins
(Figure 19). New York and New Jersey also lead in numbers of COVID-19 deaths per million (Figure 20), but California
and Texas—which rank third and fourth in number of deaths—do not appear in the list of top 15 states for deaths
per million. Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island fill out the top 5 states for deaths per million.
Figure 19
TOP 15 STATES FOR NUMBER OF REPORTED CONFIRMED COVID-19 DEATHS, AUGUST 9, 2020
Number of Confirmed COVID-19 Deaths Reported During Period Ending...
31-Mar 30-Apr 31-May 30-Jun 31-Jul 9-Aug % of U.S.
New York 20.1%
New Jersey 9.7%
California 6.4%
Texas 5.6%
Massachusetts 5.4%
Florida 5.0%
Illinois 4.8%
Pennsylvania 4.5%
Michigan 4.0%
Connecticut 2.7%
Louisiana 2.6%
Georgia 2.6%
Arizona 2.5%
Ohio 2.3%
Maryland 2.2%
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Thousands
Data source: Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource Center https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html and authors’ calculations.
Copyright © 2020 Society of Actuaries16
Figure 20
TOP 15 STATES FOR NUMBER OF REPORTED COVID-19 DEATHS PER MILLION, AUGUST 9, 2020
Number of Confirmed COVID-19 Deaths Per Million Reported During Period Ending...
30-Apr 31-May 30-Jun 31-Jul 9-Aug Total DPM
U.S. 495
New Jersey 1,787
New York 1,387
Massachusetts 1,267
Connecticut 1,246
Rhode Island 957
Louisiana 917
D.C. 837
Michigan 653
Mississippi 637
Illinois 619
Delaware 607
Maryland 593
Pennsylvania 571
Arizona 570
Indiana 452
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000
Data source: Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource Center https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html and authors’ calculations.
CANADIAN DEATHS
In Canada, the number of daily new reported COVID-19 deaths saw a general downward trend from early May
through July, after which deaths have essentially leveled off (Figure 21).
Figure 21
CANADIAN REPORTED NEW COVID-19 DEATHS, AUGUST 9, 2020
300
250
200
150
100
7-Day Moving
Average
50 Daily Reported New
COVID-19 Deaths
0
Mar-01
Mar-08
Mar-15
Mar-22
Mar-29
May-03
May-10
May-17
May-24
May-31
Jul-05
Jul-12
Jul-19
Jul-26
Apr-05
Apr-12
Apr-19
Apr-26
Jun-07
Jun-14
Jun-21
Jun-28
Aug-02
Aug-09
Data source: Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource Center https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html and authors’ calculations.
Copyright © 2020 Society of Actuaries17
Through August 9, 2020, approximately 95% of Canadian COVID-19 deaths have occurred in Quebec and Ontario
(Figure 22). While Quebec has experienced about double the number of deaths as Ontario, Quebec is less populous.
Quebec’s number of COVID-19 deaths per million is about 3.5 times that of Ontario (Figure 23).
Figure 22
NUMBER OF REPORTED COVID-19 DEATHS BY PROVINCE, AUGUST 9, 2020
Number of Confirmed COVID-19 Deaths Reported During Period Ending...
31-Mar 30-Apr 31-May 30-Jun 31-Jul 9-Aug % of Canada
Quebec 63.1%
Ontario 31.4%
Alberta 2.3%
British Columbia 2.2%
Nova Scotia 0.7%
Saskatchewan 0.2%
Manitoba 0.1%
Newfoundland and Labrador 0.0%
New Brunswick 0.0%
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000
Data source: Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource Center https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html and authors’ calculations.
Figure 23
NUMBER OF REPORTED COVID-19 DEATHS PER MILLION BY PROVINCE, AUGUST 9, 2020
Number of Confirmed COVID-19 Deaths Per Million Reported During Period Ending...
31-Mar 30-Apr 31-May 30-Jun 31-Jul 9-Aug Total DPM
Canada 241
Quebec 675
Ontario 196
Nova Scotia 66
Alberta 47.9
British Columbia 38.8
Saskatchewan 17.1
Manitoba 5.9
Newfoundland and Labrador 5.7
New Brunswick 2.6
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
Data source: Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource Center https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html and authors’ calculations.
Copyright © 2020 Society of Actuaries18
Cases Per Million Compared to Deaths Per Million
Locations with the greatest number of reported COVID-19 deaths per million are not always the locations with the
greatest number of reported confirmed COVID-19 cases per million. This section of the report looks more closely at
the relationship between these two metrics. Analysis of the reasons that regions have high or low cases per million
or deaths per million is beyond the scope of this study.
WORLDWIDE CASES PER MILLION COMPARED TO DEATHS PER MILLION
In Figure 24 reported COVID-19 deaths per million by country are plotted along the vertical axis against reported
confirmed COVID-19 cases per million along the horizontal axis. Countries with fewer than 4,000 cases per million
and 400 deaths per million are not identified, except for Canada as a point of reference. As of August 9, 2020, Qatar
stands out with an exceptionally high number of cases per million (39,881) but a low number of deaths per million
(65). Belgium stands out with the highest number of deaths per million (856), although its number of cases per
million (6,426) is more moderate relative to other countries.
Copyright © 2020 Society of Actuaries19
Figure 24
COVID-19 CASES PER MILLION AND DEATHS PER MILLION BY COUNTRY, AUGUST 9, 2020
< 4,000 4,000–10,000 Greater Than 10,000
CPM CPM Cases per Million (CPM)
Reported COVID-19 Deaths Per Million
900
Belgium
> 400 Deaths per
800
U.K.
Million
700
Spain Peru
600 Italy
Sweden Chile
500 France U.S.
Brazil
Mexico
400
Panama
< 400 Deaths per
300
Armenia
Million
Canada
200
World Kuwait
100 Bahrain
Oman Qatar
0
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000
Reported Confirmed COVID-19 Cases Per Million
< 4,000 4,000–10,000
CPM CPM
Reported COVID-19 Deaths Per Million
400
Ireland
350 Ecuador
Bolivia
300
< 400 Deaths per Million
Switzerland North Macedonia
250 Colombia
Canada Kyrgyzstan
200 South Africa
Bosnia and Portugal Moldova
Herzegovina Kosovo
150
Honduras Argentina Dominican Republic
100 World
Saudi Arabia
Kazakhstan Russia
Belarus Israel
50
Singapore
Costa Rica United Arab Emirates
0
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000
Reported Confirmed COVID-19 Cases Per Million
Data source: Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource Center https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html and authors’ calculations.
Copyright © 2020 Society of Actuaries20
U.S. CASES PER MILLION COMPARED TO DEATHS PER MILLION
Within the U.S., the numbers of both cases per million and deaths per million for some states far exceed any
country’s national metrics. Figure 25 shows that as of August 9, 2020, the U.S. national number of reported
confirmed COVID-19 cases per million was 15,313, and the number of COVID-19 deaths per million was 495. The
number of cases per million by state ranged from 2,338 in Vermont to 28,265 in Louisiana, while the number of
deaths per million ranged from 22 in Hawaii to 1,787 in New Jersey.
Figure 25
COVID-19 REPORTED CONFIRMED CASES PER MILLION AND DEATHS PER MILLION BY STATE, AUGUST 9, 2020
< 4,000 4,000–10,000 Greater Than 10,000
CPM CPM Cases per Million (CPM)
Reported COVID-19 Deaths Per Million
1,800 NJ
> 900 Deaths Per
1,600
Million (DPM)
1,400 NY
CT MA
1,200
1,000
LA
RI
800 DC
400–900
IL
DPM
600 MI DE MS
PA AZ
IN US MD
400
GA FL
< 400
DPM
200 ME AL
VT
0 HI
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000
Reported Confirmed COVID-19 Cases Per Million
4,000–10,000 Greater Than 10,000
Cases per Million Cases per Million
Reported COVID-19 Deaths Per Million
400
SC
350 NM
NH TX NV
OH CO IA
300
< 400 Deaths per Million
VA CA
MN
250 WA
NC
200 WI SD NE AR TN
KY MO
150 ND OK
ID
KS
100 WV OR UT
50 MT WY
0 AK
4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000
Reported Confirmed COVID-19 Cases Per Million
Copyright © 2020 Society of Actuaries21
Data source: Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource Center https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html and authors’ calculations.
CANADIAN CASES PER MILLION COMPARED TO DEATHS PER MILLION
The plot of Canadian COVID-19 reported confirmed cases per million against reported deaths per million shows that
Quebec and Ontario experience have heavily skewed the national statistics for Canada, but especially Quebec
(Figure 26). As of August 9, 2020, Canada’s national COVID-19 reported confirmed cases per million and reported
deaths per million were 3,244 and 241, respectively. The only province that exceeds either metric is Quebec, at
7,171 and 675, respectively.
To understand the degree to which Quebec’s metrics influence the national metrics, one can compare the national
metric to the recomputed national metric excluding Quebec: 2,101 cases per million and 115 deaths per million,
both much lower than the metrics including Quebec. Within this subset of provinces, only Alberta and Ontario have
greater numbers of cases per million—2,630 and 2,905, respectively. And only Ontario has a greater number of
deaths per million, 166.
Figure 26
COVID-19 REPORTED CONFIRMED CASES PER MILLION AND DEATHS PER MILLION BY PROVINCE, AUGUST 9, 2020
< 4,000 4,000–10,000
Cases per Million Cases per Million
Reported COVID-19 Deaths Per Million
700
Quebec
> 400 Deaths
per Million
600
500
400
New Brunswick
< 400 Deaths per
300 Manitoba Canada
Newfoundland
Million
200 and Labrador Ontario
British Columbia
100 Nova Scotia Alberta
0 Saskatchewan
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000
Reported Confirmed COVID-19 Cases Per Million
Data source: Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource Center https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html and authors’ calculations.
Copyright © 2020 Society of Actuaries22
About The Society of Actuaries
With roots dating back to 1889, the Society of Actuaries (SOA) is the world’s largest actuarial professional
organizations with more than 31,000 members. Through research and education, the SOA’s mission is to advance
actuarial knowledge and to enhance the ability of actuaries to provide expert advice and relevant solutions for
financial, business and societal challenges. The SOA’s vision is for actuaries to be the leading professionals in the
measurement and management of risk.
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who have a rigorous formal education and direct experience as practitioners as they perform applied research. The
SOA also welcomes the opportunity to partner with other organizations in our work where appropriate.
The SOA has a history of working with public policymakers and regulators in developing historical experience studies
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